Incorporating Risk Assessment Research Articles

Possibilities and limitations of computer assisted chiral HPLC method development for ozanimod on polysaccharide based chiral stationary phases.

In this study, a direct HPLC method was developed to determine the enantiomeric purity of the immunomodulatory drug, ozanimod. A systematic method development process was followed, incorporating risk assessment, identification of critical analytical procedure parameters, initial screening of stationary phases, and software-assisted optimization of method parameters. Eight different polysaccharide-based chiral columns were selected to assess chiral separation of enantiomers under polar organic elution mode. The most promising results were obtained using a methanol:2-propanol mixture on the amylose-based Chiralpak AD column. Following this, systematic modeling was conducted using DryLab software to optimize method conditions, including isocratic eluent composition, temperature, and flow rate. Baseline separation was achieved within fifteen minutes using the optimized parameters: Chiralpak AD column thermostated at 10°C, and a mobile phase of methanol:2-propanol: diethylamine, 70:30:0.1 (v/v/v %), delivered at a flow rate of 0.8 mL/min. The developed method was validated according to current guidelines and in silico robustness testing was conducted to determine tolerance limits for critical separation parameters and their impact on enantioresolution. Our findings demonstrate the utility of DryLab, typically employed for reversed-phase achiral separations, in optimizing chiral methods even in polar organic mode. Limitations of the selected approach the development of chiral separation methods are also highlighted.

Risk Assessment of The Latifiya Expressway Segment Using a Proactive Approach

Road safety assessment is an essential step in the management of transportation projects. The proactive approach in the safety assessment considers the pre-construction stage to reduce the likelihood of road accidents. This research aims to assess the risk of road infrastructure in Iraq by applying the most recent methodology based on road features and supported traffic data. The selected methodology significantly contributes to enhancing a proactive approach to road safety and incorporating risk assessment in the planning and design stages of road projects. A segment of 15km from the beginning of the Latifiya expressway was selected for this study and assessed using the international road assessment program methodology. Data on road features and traffic were collected for this goal; where data on 38 aspects of road features is collected. The traffic data includes traffic volume and spot speed. Then these data were coded and processed using VIDA online web. The assessment results were presented for three road user groups: vehicle riders, pedestrians, and motorcyclists. The results showed that the assessed segment has a high-risk level; 1 to 3 stars for vehicle riders and 1 star for motorcyclists and pedestrians. Countermeasures were presented, and their efficiency was tested to raise the star rating for all road user groups to five stars.

Beyond Bars: Transformative Strategies for Reducing Prison Congestion in the United States of America

The United States has an excessive number of incarcerated individuals. The number of incarcerated individuals surpasses 2.3 million, which is greater than any other country. This research analyzes the issue of overcrowding in US jails and presents innovative solutions. The paper commences by elucidating the prison system and the philosophical rationales for both punishing and rehabilitating offenders. The essay subsequently examines the imposition of harsh sentences, the government's "War on Drugs" campaign, flawed bail procedures, insufficient rehabilitation and reintegration initiatives, violations of parole and probation terms, challenges in allocating resources, and the accumulation of legal system delays that contribute to prison overcrowding. This analysis explores the ramifications of overcrowding on both convicts and staff, encompassing aspects such as emotional and physical well-being, safety, and the functioning of the prison system. The study suggests an inclusive approach to this key matter. In order to decrease the likelihood of repeat offenses and facilitate the process of reintegrating individuals into society, it suggests implementing more extensive rehabilitation programs that prioritize education, vocational training, and mental well-being. Additionally, it analyzes the potential for expediting jail construction and circumventing public resistance through the privatization of jails. Furthermore, it suggests the deliberate expansion of jails in order to accommodate a greater number of prisoners. It underscores the importance of implementing strategies to enhance the utilization of resources and the provision of services. Furthermore, it emphasizes the importance of overhauling bail procedures to prevent the incarceration of persons who are unable to afford it, thereby compromising the fundamental premise of presumption of innocence. Furthermore, it suggests the reduction of lengthy incarceration periods, particularly for individuals who have committed nonviolent offenses, while promoting alternative forms of punishment and rehabilitation approaches. Furthermore, it underscores the importance of implementing drug courts and restorative justice practices as a means to prevent incarceration of nonviolent offenders. Additionally, it advocates for the implementation of early release initiatives that give priority to the rehabilitation and reintegration of individuals into society, while also incorporating risk assessment and supervision. Final recommendation: Revise parole violation procedures to prioritize rehabilitation and fairness, rather than resorting to incarceration for offenders. Ultimately, the study highlights the urgency of implementing comprehensive prison reform to tackle the issue of excessive overcrowding and guarantee the humane treatment and rehabilitation of criminals. This research analyzes the issue of jail overcrowding in the United States from multiple viewpoints and suggests numerous effective strategies to decrease the number of people in prisons.

Human and Ecological Risk Assessment of Soil and Plants Metal Contamination in a Tropical Municipal Solid Waste Dumping Site

ABSTRACT The growing open waste dumpsite contributes to heavy metal leaching, harming public health and ecosystem services. Hence, the study’s novelty lies in its integrated assessment of heavy metal concentration (Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, and Zn) in soil and plants, incorporating risk assessment using both single and combined indexes in the largest active waste dumpsite in Kelantan, Malaysia. Heavy metal in soil samples Cu (164.896 ± 205.096), Pb (122.177 ± 93.309), and Cr (32.74 ± 26.569) were recorded to exceed the standards, while in the studied plants (castor bean, papaya, pea eggplant, and water spinach), Pb concentrations in all plant parts have surpassed the Malaysia Food Regulation (1985) and FAO/WHO guidelines (2016). Translocation factor (TF) in Cu, Cr, and Pb in water spinach and Cr, Cu, and Cd in pea eggplant have TF > 1. Bioconcentration factor (BCF) was < 1 in pea eggplant and water spinach except for Pb in pea eggplant. Correlation analysis revealed a strong correlation between heavy metals in the soil while contrasts in the plants. The potential ecological risk index (PERI) reveals that the soil waste dumpsite is contaminated with heavy metals. The hazard index (HI) and lifetime cancer risk (LCR) values of heavy metals on the soil surface had negligible non-cancer risks posed to adults and indicate that soil ingestion and dermal absorption were the two primary carcinogenic risk exposure routes. These findings implied that Beris Lalang waste dumpsite is a potential source of toxic pollutants to the environment and the local population. It is recommended to conduct a comprehensive feasibility study and design an implementation plan for leachate treatment plant. Additionally, a comprehensive assessment of the specific contaminants present in the leachate and their potential impacts on the environment should be conducted to inform targeted and effective treatment strategies.

Risk assessment of driver performance in the oil and gas transportation industry: Analyzing the relationship between driver vigilance, attention, reaction time, and safe driving practices

The increasing use of road traffic for land transportation has resulted in numerous road accidents and casualties, including those involving oil and gas tanker vehicles. Despite this, little empirical research has been conducted on the factors influencing tanker drivers' performance. This study aims to address this knowledge gap, particularly in the energy transportation industry, by examining the driving performance factors that affect tanker drivers and incorporating risk assessment measures. The model variables were identified from the literature and used to develop a survey questionnaire for the study. A total of 307 surveys were collected from Malaysian oil and gas tanker drivers, and the driving performance factors were contextually adjusted using the Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) approach. The driving performance model was developed using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). The EFA results categorized driving performance into two constructs: 1) drivers' reaction time with β = 0.320 and 2) attention and vigilance with β value = 0.749. The proposed model provided full insight into how drivers’ reaction time, attention, and vigilance impact drivers' performance in this sector, which can help identify potential risks and prevent accidents. The findings are significant in understanding the factors that affect oil and gas drivers' performance and can aid in enhancing oil and gas transportation management by including effective risk assessment measures to prevent fatal crashes.

Enhancing Patient-Centric Approaches and Regulatory Measures in Valproate Use

Valproate is an effective treatment for bipolar disorder, migraine, and seizures. It is a flexible medication for neurological illnesses. In addition to its immediate benefits, the neuroprotective capabilities of this substance, which may be attributed to its antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties, contribute to its complexity. Nevertheless, the presence of significant negative consequences such as pancreatitis, liver failure, teratogenicity, and an elevated risk of suicide present considerable difficulties. Significantly, its capacity to block histone deacetylase motivates investigation into possible epigenetic impacts for the treatment of AIDS and cancer. The article discusses the issue surrounding the use of valproate in neurology. It agrees with the guidelines set by the MHRA (Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency), but also emphasises the need for further considerations in patient care and regulatory enhancements. The statement emphasises the need of providing clear guidance to patients and carers, while highlighting the need for comprehensive education of neurologists worldwide, with the backing of government. The paper advocates for allocating funding to support in-depth understanding through preclinical and clinical investigations, emphasising the importance of a well-rounded approach that prioritises the needs of patients. The aim is to create a flexible framework that can respond to changing medical knowledge by incorporating risk assessment, patient education, and thorough monitoring after regulatory changes. The objective of this strategy is to achieve a balance between ensuring reproductive safety and promoting the well-being of those who are reliant on valproate. This involves taking into account both the practical and emotional aspects of patient care.

Dynamic distributed decision-making for resilient resource reallocation in disrupted manufacturing systems

The COVID-19 pandemic brings many unexpected disruptions, such as frequently shifting markets and limited human workforce, to manufacturers. To stay competitive, flexible and real-time manufacturing decision-making strategies are needed to deal with such highly dynamic manufacturing environments. One essential problem is dynamic resource allocation to complete production tasks, especially when a resource disruption (e.g. machine breakdown) occurs. Though multi-agent methods have been proposed to solve the problem in a flexible and agile manner, the agent internal decision-making process and resource uncertainties have rarely been studied. This work introduces a model-based resource agent (RA) architecture that enables effective agent coordination and dynamic agent decision-making. Based on the RA architecture, a rescheduling strategy that incorporates risk assessment via a clustering agent coordination strategy is also proposed. A simulation-based case study is implemented to demonstrate dynamic rescheduling using the proposed multi-agent framework. The results show that the proposed method reduces the computational efforts while losing some throughput optimality compared to the centralised method. Furthermore, the case study illustrates that incorporating risk assessment into rescheduling decision-making improves the throughput.

Feasibility of implementing an innovative manual handling risk assessment training program for staff working in long-term care

BackgroundThe Risk Assessment for moving Individuals SafEly (RAISE) program is a hospital-based manual handling nursing training program. RAISE involves upskilling on continual risk assessment during patient-assisted movements. RAISE aims to optimise staff and patient safety while providing the patient with movement and rehabilitation opportunities. Implementation of RAISE in the hospital setting has been established. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of implementing RAISE in the long-term care setting.MethodsWe examined three feasibility domains: acceptability, practicality, and limited efficacy (observed nursing behaviour change which has the potential to reduce nursing injuries), using a prospective pilot pre-post design in the long-term care setting. Staff completed a 4-hour training session on RAISE delivered by two physiotherapists, followed by 8 h of supported behaviour change in the workplace. Staff acceptability and practicality of incorporating risk assessment strategies into manual handling approaches were explored through pre- and post-training staff surveys and a semi-structured interview. Resident acceptability of manual handling practices was explored via survey data collected after the RAISE training. Pre to post-training changes in staff knowledge and behaviour were examined through the pre- and post-training staff survey, and observation of staff assisting resident movement.ResultsTwo enrolled nurses and five residents participated. Staff reported the RAISE program was acceptable and practical to implement in the long-term care setting. There were no adverse events or safety concerns. Staff reported the RAISE program provided guidance and enhanced staff empowerment to make decisions during assisted resident movement. There were 26 observed resident-staff manual handling interactions recorded, with 13 pre-training and 13 post-training. Post-training, RAISE skills had improved and were completed 100% of the time, except for completing a physical risk assessment which improved from 46 to 85%, demonstrating limited efficacy. Residents reported it’s important for staff to be trained on how to assist them to mobilise and they found the concept of the RAISE program acceptable.ConclusionsThis pilot study supports the feasibility of long-term care facilities participating in future studies testing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the Risk Assessment for moving Individuals SafEly (RAISE) patient and resident manual handling program.

Water Safety Plan: Importance of including epidemiological data in risk assessment in drinking water supply

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The World Health Organization - WHO, through the first volume of the third edition of the GDWQ (WHO, 2004), published in September 2004, recommended that management entities of public water supply systems develop security plans (PSA) to guarantee water quality, incorporating risk assessment and management methodologies, as well as good system operation practices. PSA is an instrument with a preventive approach, with the objective of ensuring safe water, including minimizing contamination in the spring, eliminating, or removing contamination through water treatment and preventing (re) contamination in the distribution system. The requirements for preventive management, aiming at water safety must encompass five main components: 1. Health based on goals and an assessment of epidemiological and health issues; 2. Evaluation system to determine if the supply of drinking water is within the parameters that meet the health goal; 3. Operational control of the drinking water supply control measures; 4. Management plans documenting the evaluation and monitoring system, describing actions to be taken under normal and emergency conditions; 5. Independent surveillance system that checks if it is operating correctly. AIM: To analyze the standardization of waterborne morbidities, forms of analysis and the proposal for inclusion in the PSA with an epidemiological approach to health. METHODS: Descriptive study. We analyzed reports made available by the UN and the Ministry of Health of Brazil. 8 PSA in Brazil, were analyzed to assess whether epidemiological data were included RESULTS:It was identified that only three PSA included SUS hospital morbidity data, which were from the municipalities of Cordeirópolis, Ipeúna and Santa Barbara D ’Oeste CONCLUSIONS:There is a need for standardization of waterborne morbidities, forms of analysis and proposal for inclusion in PSA considering an epidemiological approach to health in LAC countries and especially Brazil, emphasizing the importance of epidemiology in PSA. KEYWORDS: Water quality, Waterborne diseases, Environmental epidemiology, Policy and practice

A Review of Metal Levels in Urban Dust, Their Methods of Determination, and Risk Assessment

This review gives insights into the levels of metals in urban dust, their determination methods, and risk assessment. Urban dust harbors a number of pollutants, including heavy metals. There are various methods used for the sampling of urban dust for heavy-metal analysis and source-apportionment purposes, with the predominant one being the use of plastic sampling materials to avoid prior contamination. There are also various methods for the determination of metals, which include: atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS) and inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), among others. Studies have shown that pollutants in urban dust are mainly derived from industrial activities and coal combustion, whereas traffic emissions are also an important, but not a predominant source of pollution. The varying particle-size distribution of urban dust and its large surface area makes it easier for the deposition and transport of heavy metals. Risk-assessment studies have shown that metals in urban dust could cause such problems as human pulmonary toxicity and reduction of invertebrate populations. The risk levels seem to be higher in children than adults, as some studies have shown. It is therefore important that studies on metals in urban dust should always incorporate risk assessment as one of the main issues.

Endocrine prevention of breast cancer

Breast cancer (BC) is the most common non-cutaneous malignancy among women worldwide and is a significant cause of morbidity, mortality, and national health care expenditure. Unfortunately, with few exceptions like alcohol consumption, obesity, and physical activity, most BC risk factors are unmodifiable. Antiestrogen endocrine therapy, commonly known as BC chemoprevention, is an effective method of BC prevention. In multiple randomized trials, two selective estrogen receptor modulators — tamoxifen and raloxifene, and two aromatase inhibitors — exemestane and anastrozole have reduced BC incidence by 50%–65% in high-risk women. An estimated 15% of the US women between 35 and 79 years of age may qualify as high risk for BC, yet a small percentage of these women will ever have a formal BC risk assessment or a discussion of endocrine prevention options. The etiology of underutilization of endocrine prevention of BC is multifactorial — infrequent use of BC risk assessment tools in the primary care settings, insufficient knowledge of BC risk assessment tools and antiestrogen agents among primary care providers, concerns of side effects, inadequate time for counseling during primary care visit, and lack of predictive biomarkers may play significant roles. Many small studies incorporating risk assessment tools and decision-making aids showed minimal success in enhancing endocrine prevention. One critical factor for underutilization of endocrine prevention is low uptake of endocrine prevention by high-risk women even when appropriately recommended. Furthermore, adherence to BC endocrine prevention is unsatisfactorily low. Despite the current infrequent usage, endocrine prevention has the potential to reduce the public health burden of BC significantly. Innovative approaches like finding new agents, alternative dosing and schedule of currently available agents, transdermal medication delivery, increased public and professional awareness, and policymakers' commitments may bring the desired changes.

Implications of Risk Governance in Genetically Modified Food: A Comparative Discussion on European and United States Contexts

The rapid growth of world population has increased the demand for Genetically Modified Food (GMF) to fulfill the global nutritional needs. Simultaneously, it also needs to understand the cross-national contexts based on the risk governance of this newly emergence of food technologies. Thus, the paper tries to exhibit a comparison on GMF between United States (US) and European Union (EU) using the risk governance framework. Hence, the study uses the risk governance framework as a model that incorporates risk assessment, concern assessment, risk characterization and evaluation, risk management, and risk communication. The paper is based on secondary source of data collection and the two areas (US and EU) is purposively selected for this comparative discussion. The result shows recent controversies on usage of GMF between US and EU highlighting the apparent differences that does exist in all spheres of risk governance.

Toxicity testing in the 21st century: progress in the past decade and future perspectives.

Advances in the biological sciences have led to an ongoing paradigm shift in toxicity testing based on expanded application of high-throughput in vitro screening and in silico methods to assess potential health risks of environmental agents. This review examines progress on the vision for toxicity testing elaborated by the US National Research Council (NRC) during the decade that has passed since the 2007 NRC report on Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century (TT21C). Concomitant advances in exposure assessment, including computational approaches and high-throughput exposomics, are also documented. A vision for the next generation of risk science, incorporating risk assessment methodologies suitable for the analysis of new toxicological and exposure data, resulting in human exposure guidelines is described. Case study prototypes indicating how these new approaches to toxicity testing, exposure measurement, and risk assessment are beginning to be applied in practice are presented. Overall, progress on the 20-year transition plan laid out by the US NRC in 2007 has been substantial. Importantly, government agencies within the United States and internationally are beginning to incorporate the new approach methodologies envisaged in the original TT21C vision into regulatory practice. Future perspectives on the continued evolution of toxicity testing to strengthen regulatory risk assessment are provided.

Dollars and Sense: Integrating Significance Assessment, Risk Assessment and Cost/Benefit Analysis in Conservation Management Planning

This paper proposes a new type of conservation management plan to incorporate risk assessment and cost/benefit analysis. The author uses the methods of Significance2.0, Agnes Brokerhof’s Quiskscan Risk Assessment and May Cassar’s Cost/Benefit Appraisals for Collection Care to communicate a favourable action pathway for a complex and multi-purpose collection of numismatic artefacts at The Perth Mint. The combination of all three methods served to valorise the collection, highlight the risks faced and reveal the financial costs associated with all levels of intervention. This was particularly relevant in the non-museum context where financial and human resources are not automatically allocated to cultural heritage conservation. This comprehensive approach empowered the custodians to make informed and ethical choices, increasing the organisation’s engagement with concepts of cultural value and preventive conservation.

Assessing aeromedical risk: a three-dimensional risk matrix approach.

Early aeromedical risk i was based on aeromedical standards designed to eliminate individuals ii from air operations with any identifiable medical risk, and led to frequent medical disqualification. The concept of considering aeromedical risk as part of the spectrum of risks that could lead to aircraft accidents (including mechanical risks and human factors) was first proposed in the 1980s and led to the development of the 1% rule which defines the maximum acceptable risk for an incapacitating medical event as 1% per year (or 1 in 100 person-years) to align with acceptable overall risk in aviation operations. Risk management has subsequently evolved as a formal discipline, incorporating risk assessment as an integral part of the process. Risk assessment is often visualised as a risk matrix, with the level of risk, urgency or action required defined for each cell, and colour-coded as red, amber or green depending on the overall combination of risk and consequence. This manuscript describes an approach to aeromedical risk management which incorporates risk matrices and how they can be used in aeromedical decision-making, while highlighting some of their shortcomings.

Full Flood Cost: Insights from a Risk Analysis Perspective

Traditionally, flood protection measures have focused on high investment alternatives for control infrastructures that will benefit a certain amount of people, based in a gross cost-benefit (GCB) for the defined design flood. This gross cost-benefit approach, however, does not fully incorporate risk assessment into the analysis, given that it assumes that the chosen flood protection measures will provide protection against a design flood by avoiding flood damage every year during the project’s lifespan. This paper presents a probabilistic view of the benefits of implementing flood control measures, incorporating the risk concept to a full flood cost analysis, for an example region in Brazil. By combining analysis on annual expected damage, which considered the likelihood of n flood events along the year—and not only the project one—and two flood management measures (levee and land zoning flood hazard), this paper evaluates why, and by how much, the inclusion of the probability of effectiveness of a given flood protection measure differs from traditional methods based on gross benefit. Results demonstrated a large difference between verifying a measure’s benefits by the GCB and the expected damage: whereas the former indicates the levee structure resulting in a lower accumulated damage from the fifth year of measure implementation, if the expected damage is used, investing in land zoning will be always most cost effective. These findings are useful to highlight that full flood costs should be based on risk evaluation, which is consonant with the latest perception of the assessment and management of flood risks, such as the Floods Directive present in the EU Water Framework Directive.

An Etiological Approach to Sexual Offender Assessment: CAse Formulation Incorporating Risk Assessment (CAFIRA).

Case formulations (CF) have been the cornerstone of effective practice in clinical psychology since the 1950s and now form one of the core competencies in clinical and forensic assessment. The use of CFs within forensic settings is becoming more relevant when working with offenders who have experienced significant trauma, suffered from personality disorder, and have displayed sexually abusive behavior. Furthermore, most North American and European jurisdictions insist that expert witnesses adopt an idiosyncratic approach to risk assessment and consider the characteristics of the individual as part of a wider formulation of the problem behavior. This article focuses specifically on CF incorporating risk assessment procedures of sexual offenders. While empirical support for the use of risk analysis and formulation in managing offending behavior generally, and sexual offending behavior in particular, is limited, there is mounting evidence to suggest that CF can improve understanding of an individual's problem sexual behaviors. We argue that by integrating risk formulations into the CF provides a conceptually robust link between the etiologically development of the problem sexual behavior and effective assessment and risk management of sexual offenders. As forensic treatment programs increasingly moved toward strength-based approaches, in keeping with the Risk-Need-Responsivity principles Andrews and Bonta (2004), and the Good Lives Model Ward and Stewart (Prof Psychol Res Pract 34:353-60, 2003) of offender rehabilitation, the use of CFs in the assessment, treatment, and management of sexual offenders is indispensable. We present an etiological framework for understanding risk in an individual sexual offender by integrating a case formulation model to include the use of (static, stable, and acute) actuarial and clinical risk assessment measures as well as protective risk factors, referred to as the CAse Formulation Incorporating Risk Assessment (CAFIRA) model.

Risk assessment practice within primary mental health care: A logics perspective.

From the 1980s onwards, discourses of risk have continued to grow, almost in ubiquity. Ideas and practices of risk and risk aversion have extended to UK mental health care where services are expected to assess and manage risks, and high-quality clinical assessment has been revised to incorporate risk assessment. This article problematises practices of risk assessment in mental health provision, focussing on the base-rate problem. It presents an analysis of audio recordings of risk assessments completed within a primary care mental health service. The analysis is informed by a critical logics approach which, using ideas from discourse theory as well as Lacanian psychoanalysis, involves developing a set of logics to describe, analyse and explain social phenomena. We characterise the assessments as functioning according to social logics of well-oiled administration and preservation, whereby bureaucratic processes are prioritised, contingency ironed out or ignored, and a need to manage potential risks to the service are the dominant operational frames. These logics are considered in terms of their beatific and horrific fantasmatic dimensions, whereby risk assessment is enacted as infallible (beatific) until clients become threats (horrific), creating a range of potential false negatives, false positives and so forth. These processes function to obscure or background problems with risk assessment, by generating practices that favour and offer protection to assessors, at the expense of those being assessed, thus presenting a challenge to the stated aim of risk assessment practice.

Supporting risk assessment of human-robot collaborative production layouts: a proposed design automation framework

As fenceless human-robot collaborative (HRC) production layouts are developed as a viable alternative to traditional set-ups, risk assessment of such installations becomes highly complex. The involved risks include new challenges in the form of previously non-encountered dynamic hazards, which demand innovative solutions to ensure human occupational safety.This paper aims to investigate the application of design automation in providing means of incorporating risk assessment in the early stages of development of production layouts. The result is a conceptual framework for a decision support tool with which the safety aspects of an HRC application can be evaluated before installation.

Inclusion of design variability in flexible highway pavement life-cycle cost analysis

This research presents a method that accounts for variability in the principal design input variables for fully flexible highway pavements and assesses their effect on pavement performance. Variability is described by statistical terms such as mean and standard deviation and by its probability density distribution. Statistical characterisation of the variation of asphalt layer thickness, asphalt stiffness and subgrade stiffness is addressed. A model is then proposed that represents an improvement on the method of equivalent thickness for the rapid and repeated calculation of performance life. A Monte Carlo analysis is used to estimate pavement performance life to account for uncertainty of input variables and to calculate the probability of failure of a pavement structure. The output is a statistical assessment of the estimated pavement performance. Rather than the single deterministic result that would be derived by considering average values of input variables, a range of values and probabilities is found for any particular outcome. The probabilistic approach offers a way of incorporating risk assessment considerations that are vital for whole-life-cycle economic analysis and decisions. The paper investigates how variability affects the life-cycle cost of a pavement over a 60-year analysis period.