Incomplete Scientific Knowledge Research Articles

Supporting spatial planning with a novel method based on participatory Bayesian networks: An application in Curaçao

Land use change is a major driver of environmental degradation, necessitating appropriate planning to navigate trade-offs between societal objectives and ecological impacts. Sound planning is limited in some regions by data scarcity and incomplete scientific knowledge on local dynamics shaping development of land. In this paper, we present a novel expert-based participatory approach that uses Bayesian networks to determine land use suitability and potential conflicts for emerging land uses. This method encompasses a workshop phase for building suitability models for different sectors, data assembly and preparation, spatialization of networks, and iterative validation with experts. Mapped suitabilities for all land uses were used to assess potential competition for land across sectors and to quantify alignment of the expert-modeled outcomes with established land use policy. Applied to Curaçao, a data-poor environment in the Caribbean facing high land use competition, the method enabled the construction and parameterization of 5 Bayesian networks driven by 35 spatial input datasets generated through various methods from participatory mapping to social media analysis. Overlap in suitable locations for conservation and tourism development along segments of the coastline and roadsides of the western island highlight potential conflict stemming from coincidence of desirable natural amenities and ecologically sensitive areas. Results yield key insights that can drive discussion and inform policymakers and spatial planners as they navigate tradeoffs and seek optimal use of limited land resources. Process-based suitability predictions and knowledge of underlying drivers can also enable exploratory analysis into possible future scenarios of change.

Improvement on small-scale tuna fisheries data quality through the Application of e-Logbook System

Tuna and tuna-like fisheries play a vital role in Indonesian livelihood, especially in the archipelagic waters. However, despite the importance, the concern in general data collection activities for tuna, i.e., limited, with incomplete scientific knowledge and insufficient data has hampered the assessment. The purpose of this study was to analyse on how fisheries-dependent data system could transform the data quality. For this purpose, the analysis was conducted based on e-logbook data from January to December 2020. The result showed that some robust fisheries indicators (catch, effort, fleet and species composition) could be produced from this particular dataset. In addition, e-logbook has the best attribute for improving the data quality, especially for small-scale tuna fisheries in FMA-714. Low cost and vast spatial and temporal coverage are the main characteristics on why the program should be expanded and monitored carefully in the future.

Improvement on small-scale tuna fisheries data quality through the application of e-logbook system

Tuna and tuna-like fisheries play a vital role in Indonesian livelihood, especially in the archipelagic waters. However, despite the importance, the concern in general data collection activities for tuna, i.e., limited, with incomplete scientific knowledge and insufficient data has hampered the assessment. The purpose of this study was to analyse on how fisheries-dependent data system could transform the data quality. E-logbook has the best attribute for reaching the goals, especially for small-scale tuna fisheries. Characterised by low cost and vast spatial and temporal coverage, it is convinced on why the program should be expanded and monitored carefully. Analysis on fisheries indicators showed a promising result, especially for filling the gap which could not be covered by research.

On the Creation of Risk: Framing of Microplastics Risks in Science and Media

AbstractThe public is concerned about plastic pollution, while clear‐cut scientific evidence for an environmental risk of microplastics is absent. This contrast between incomplete scientific knowledge and public risk perception is an interesting case for investigating how “environmental risk” is transformed in science communication. This study examines how microplastics risks are framed in peer‐reviewed publications and online newspaper articles, respectively. It also analyzes if the contents conveyed by the frames used in science and the media are consistent. The results show that most scientific studies (67%) frame microplastics risks as hypothetical or uncertain, while 24% present them as established. In contrast, most media articles reporting on microplastic impacts (93%) imply that risks of microplastics exist and harmful consequences are highly probable. The creation of simple narratives (journalists) and the emphasis on potentially negative impacts (scientists) contribute to this inconsistency. The transformation of an uncertain risk into an actual risk is further caused by two inconsistent risk conceptions, namely risk being the probability of a negative outcome (environmental scientists) or being the uncertainty of a negative outcome itself (public). Although the latter differs from the risks identified “objectively” by scientific methods, it allows understanding the risk perception of the public and decision‐makers.

Methods for including uncertainty in modeling and simulation of acoustic propagation in ocean waveguides

Two main classes of uncertainty are associated with modeling and simulation of acoustic fields in ocean waveguides. These classes, generally known as aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, represent opposite ends of a spectrum of possible types of imperfect knowledge concerning the system. Aleatory uncertainty can be interpreted physically as natural ocean variability which is typically characterized by probability density functions, provided sufficient information is available to justify their specification. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty is associated with incomplete scientific knowledge concerning some aspect(s) of the system under analysis. While epistemic uncertainty can be reduced by the inclusion of additional information, e.g., data refinements, acquisition of additional data or more realistic modeling of the system, aleatory uncertainty cannot be eliminated or reduced because it is judged by the modeler to be inherent in the structure of the system. Both types of uncertainty are discussed, with an emphasis on the aleatory contribution based on stochastic basis expansions. Tradeoffs with Monte-Carlo and Bayesian methods are also considered. When density functions are not available, weaker inferential estimates based on epistemic approaches are appropriate and a hybrid aleatory-epistemic framework is outlined for treating these situations. [Work supported by the Office of Naval Research.]

50 Shades of Green Part II: The Fallacy of Environmental Markets

Recent calls to action to address critical loss of biodiversity are both long overdue and very welcome, but a parallel debate on the ‘how’ is missing. Yet the ‘how’ is arguably as important as the headline objective. The ‘how’ is also in the process of changing drastically with the promotion of new financial markets on environmental destruction, and the mainstreaming of a new kind of sustainable finance. Offset markets on biodiversity and other ecosystem services have been shown to suffer from intractable conceptual issues, including measurement issues, incalculable additionality, highly uncertain valuations and an inexistent price signal. As a result, they will never be able to achieve their environmental and social objectives. Empirical evidence also suggests an appalling social and environmental track record for some existing markets. As importantly, the selective pricing of only some ecosystem services and the ignorance of ecosystem interdependencies mean that the resulting values cannot claim to represent biodiversity. Traditional environmental regulation would be far more effective, simpler and cheaper to address the critical loss of natural resources. They would not require the unrealistic assumptions and oversimplifications needed to create markets on biodiversity, and would accommodate infinitely better the high scientific uncertainty and our incomplete scientific knowledge. While putting a price on nature to save it is a catchy formula, it would therefore seem that regulating nature’s destruction would be a far superior alternative. Sustainable finance should not foster the creation of such markets if it is to be truly sustainable.

The Appropriate Assessment under the European Habitats Directive: Interplay Between Science, Law, and Policy

Despite 25 years of the European Union's Habitats Directive, the erosion of biodiversity in the EU has continued. To help explain the failure, this article analyzes Habitats Directive Article 6(3) and (4) and their key terms. It concludes, among other points, that the “Appropriate Assessment,” the objective of which is to insure the integrity of the Natura 2000 network sites, has not been used as it should have. Moreover, the vagueness of many terms in Article 6(3) and (4) have allowed biological conservation to be overcome by the imperative of economic growth. This article calls for greater recognition of the need for legal action despite incomplete scientific knowledge, as well as for better education of both the community and the courts in incorporating scientific knowledge into conservation policy.

Young Children Can Be Sophisticated Scientists

Since the first international comparison of student achievement in mathematics and science, we've been worried about the disappointing showing by U.S. students. However, while the United States has tried to improve mathematics achievement in every grade from kindergarten to 12th, its efforts to improve education have emphasized only middle school and high school. Elementary school has been relatively neglected. One cause is an outdated idea that elementary school children aren't developmentally ready to handle complex science. But my research and that of others shows that young children can be surprisingly capable scientists. Their abilities far exceed the notions of age-appropriate in current curriculum policy documents. This means that today's curricula are unnecessarily watered down. What children know determines what they can learn next. we update our thinking about what young children can do with and give them more optimal learning opportunities, we may be able to significantly strengthen young children's scientific reasoning and position them to take on more rigorous curriculum in later grades. What Science? For many years, educators have categorized what is appropriate for children according to Jean Piaget's developmental stages. We've thought about kids' capabilities and deficiencies in terms of different grade bands, and we've thought about the science process skills that are available to them in those grade bands. But this approach substantially underestimates children's capabilities. One problem with Piaget's stages is that his investigations of children's scientific inquiry used tasks for which they had weak conceptual knowledge, thus handicapping their reasoning (Carey 1985). But how well children perform a task depends on both how well they reason and how well they know important concepts. As Susan Carey noted, If these concepts are not completely clear in the child's mind, due to incomplete scientific knowledge, then the child will, of course, be unable to separate them from each other in hypothesis testing and evaluation (1985: 498). Later work on children's development by Piaget (1978, 1980) and others (see Duschl, Schweingruber, and Shouse 2007) reveals that young children have a wide range of intellectual resources. But many educators have clung to the idea that young children have limited scientific reasoning capabilities. The developmental literature may identify the intellectual resources that children bring to the classroom, but it is blind to the capacities that children can reveal under better learning conditions. Recent research suggests that children's capabilities are surprisingly plastic and sensitive to the opportunities they have to learn. Stronger Science Instruction In my research, I analyze how well children can think scientifically when they get instruction that uses their intellectual resources to the fullest. One line of my work investigates the power of scientific inquiry in the hands of children in the primary grades (Metz 2004, 2008). More recently (Metz et al. 2010), I've been investigating the extent to which young children can understand core scientific ideas. From this work, I've developed five instructional design principles aimed at maximizing the power of children's scientific inquiry, and I've incorporated these principles into an elementary school curriculum. The design principles are: 1. Scaffold relatively rich knowledge, emphasizing big ideas that transcend the topic being studied. A solid grasp of concepts leads to better scientific reasoning. Unfortunately, U.S. curricula cover many topics superficially (Valverde and Schmidt 2000), undermining in-depth conceptual understanding. This instructional model sacrifices coverage of many topics to go deep into strategically selected ones. This principle gives rise to the next two. …

Public Health Action Amid Scientific Uncertainty

BY THE 1930S, OBSERVATIONAL STUDIES HAD SUGgested a link between cigarette smoking and lung cancer and, by the 1950s, strong evidence for a causal role had emerged. However, comprehensive measures to reduce cigarette smoking in the United States were delayed until after the 1964 Surgeon General’s Report on Smoking and Health, in part due to the political influence of the tobacco industry. In 1977, the US Senate Select Committee on Health and Human Needs held hearings to explore the relationship between diet and chronic disease. At that time, the adverse effects of saturated fat on blood cholesterol levels were welldocumented, motivating the committee to recommend reducing this type of fat to 10% of calorie intake. The committee also recommended reducing total fat to 30% of calorie intake, despite concerns from scientists, such as the administrator of the US Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Research Service, that “only limited knowledge exists concerning proper diets for humans.” For the next 20 years, reduction of fat consumption became the primary dietary goal of the US government and virtually all nutritionrelated professional health associations. As a result, fat consumption as a proportion of total energy decreased markedly from the 1970s to the 1990s. During this period, the prevalence of obesity and diabetes increased greatly. Indeed, some have argued that the focus on reducing all dietary fats has actually caused harm, by diverting attention away from more effective action and by encouraging substitution of processed carbohydrates for more healthful monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fats. As demonstrated by these 2 accounts, the decision of whether and how to act for many public health problems must be made amid evolving and incomplete scientific knowledge. Both premature and delayed governmental action can result in preventable injury, illness, death, and economic loss on a large scale. Today, excessive body weight threatens to overtake smoking as the leading cause of preventable death, and obesity comprises only one of many chronic diseases caused by poor diet quality. For this reason, numerous public health measures to improve diet and combat the obesity epidemic have been proposed, chief among them calorie labeling. Labeling requirements now exist or are being considered in a number of states and cities, and several federal bills on the issue have been introduced. However, many of these legislative acts have encountered intense opposition from the restaurant industry, which argues that the benefits of providing this information to consumers have not been proven. In this Commentary, we propose 4 criteria to assess whether governmental action to address a public health problem is warranted and apply these criteria to calorie labeling regulation for restaurants.

Mapping wildlife: integrating stakeholder knowledge with modelled patterns of deer abundance by using participatory GIS

Context. Some species that are perceived by certain stakeholders as a valuable resource can also cause ecological or economic damage, leading to contrasting management objectives and subsequent conflict between stakeholder groups. There is increasing recognition that the integration of stakeholder knowledge with formal scientific data can enhance the information available for use in management. This is especially true where scientific understanding is incomplete, as is frequently the case for wide-ranging species, which can be difficult to monitor directly at the landscape scale. Aims. The aim of the research was to incorporate stakeholder knowledge with data derived from formal quantitative models to modify predictions of wildlife distribution and abundance, using wild deer in the UK as an example. Methods. We use selected predictor variables from a deer–vehicle collision model to estimate deer densities at the 10-km square level throughout the East of England. With these predictions as a baseline, we illustrate the use of participatory GIS as a methodological framework for enabling stakeholder participation in the refinement of landscape-scale deer abundance maps. Key results. Stakeholder participation resulted in modifications to modelled abundance patterns for all wild deer species present in the East of England, although the modifications were minor and there was a high degree of consistency among stakeholders in the adjustments made. For muntjac, roe and fallow deer, the majority of stakeholder changes represented an increase in density, suggesting that populations of these species are increasing in the region. Conclusions. Our results show that participatory GIS is a useful technique for enabling stakeholders to contribute to incomplete scientific knowledge, especially where up-to-date species distribution and abundance data are needed to inform wildlife research and management. Implications. The results of the present study will serve as a valuable information base for future research on deer management in the region. The flexibility of the approach makes it applicable to a range of species at different spatial scales and other wildlife conflict issues. These may include the management of invasive species or the conservation of threatened species, where accurate spatial data and enhanced community involvement are necessary in order to facilitate effective management.

A Critical Appraisal of 2007 American College of Occupational and Environmental Medicine (ACOEM) Practice Guidelines for Interventional Pain Management: An Independent Review Utilizing AGREE, AMA, IOM, and Other Criteria

Today, with the growing interest of the medical community and others in practice guidelines, there is greater emphasis on formal procedures and methods for arriving at a widely scrutinized and endorsed consensus than ever before. Conflicts in terminology and technique are notable for the confusion that guidelines create and for what they reflect about differences in values, experiences, and interests among different parties. While public and private development activities continue to multiply, the means for coordinating these efforts to resolve inconsistencies, fill in gaps, track applications and results, and assess the soundness of particular guidelines continue to be limited. In this era of widespread guideline development by private organizations, the American College of Occupational and Environment Medicine (ACOEM) has developed guidelines that evaluate areas of clinical practice well beyond the scope of occupational medicine and yet fail to properly involve physicians expert in these, especially those in the field of interventional pain management. As the field of guidelines suffers from imperfect and incomplete scientific knowledge as well as imperfect and uneven means of applying that knowledge without a single or correct way to develop guidelines, ACOEM guidelines have been alleged to hinder patient care, reduce access to interventional pain management procedures, and transfer patients into a system of disability, Medicare, and Medicaid. To critically appraise occupational medicine practice guidelines for interventional pain management by an independent review utilizing the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation (AGREE), American Medical Association (AMA), Institute of Medicine (IOM), and other commonly utilized criteria. Revised chapters of ACOEM guidelines, low back pain and chronic pain, developed in 2007 and 2008 are evaluated, utilizing AGREE, AMA, IOM instruments, and Shaneyfelt et al's criteria, were independently reviewed by 4 appraisers. Critical appraisal utilizing the AGREE instrument found that both chapters scored less than 10% in 3 of the 6 domains, less than 20% in one domain, over 30% in one domain, and over 70% in one domain. Global assessment also scored below 30% with a recommendation from AGREE, "not recommended or suitable for use in practice." Based on AMA key attributes, both chapters of ACOEM guidelines met only one of the 6 key attributes, only 3 of the 8 attributes were met by IOM criteria, and based on the criteria described by Shaneyfelt et al, overall only 28% of criteria were met. Both the low back pain and chronic pain chapters of the ACOEM guidelines may not be ideal for clinical use based on the assessment by the AGREE instrument, AMA attributes, and criteria established by Shaneyfelt et al. They also scored low on IOM criteria (37.5%). These guidelines may not be applicable for clinical use.

Uncertainty in the Relation between Exposure to Magnetic Fields and Brain Cancer due to Assessment and Assignment of Exposure and Analytical Methods in Dose‐Response Modeling

Incomplete scientific knowledge ensures that, in every study, uncertainty will enter the processes of exposure estimation and exposure-response modeling. In the light of the heated debate about the health effects of magnetic fields resulting from power production and usage, we undertook a sensitivity analysis to evaluate uncertainty related to key decisions in a previous study of brain cancer and occupational exposure to magnetic fields. The findings appeared to be relatively insensitive to most variations in the methods of exposure assessment, exposure assignment, and data analysis. The results can be visualized by defining bands of uncertainty about a best-bet estimate of the association based on our original study. These bands of methodological uncertainties were similar in magnitude to the conventional 95% confidence interval, but they provide a measure of the potential range of systematic bias in the results, rather than reflecting statistical variability alone. The methodology employed here can be applied to other studies, and other researchers are encouraged to conduct sensitivity analysis in order to estimate methodological uncertainty as an alternative to statistical confidence intervals.

Fitness Landscapes and the Precautionary Principle: The Geometry of Environmental Risk.

/ A generalized mathematical model for exploring the implications of the Precautionary Principle is developed. This model draws on recent developments in the field of complex adaptive systems theory. The existence and importance of the Precautionary Principle in the field of environmental law is taken as given and used as justification for the development of models for exploring the principle's implications.The Precautionary Principle is a legal mechanism for managing the environmental risk arising from incomplete scientific knowledge of a proposal's impacts. The Precautionary Principle is applied to actions that carry with them the potential for serious or irreversible environmental change. The model proposed in this paper draws on methods used in a range of disciplines for modeling (potentially highly nonlinear) interactions between multiple parts of a complex system. These methods have been drawn together under the common mathematical umbrella of Fitness Landscape Theory. It is argued that the model, called "Environmental Impact Fitness Landscapes," allows statements about the sensitivity of the gross effect from a set of impacts to be made when the number of impacts in the set, and/or their degree of interaction, is varied. It is argued that this can be achieved through identification of "meta" or "emergent" properties of the set itself, without reference to the specific causal chains determining behavior in specific instances. While such properties are very general, they may at least allow for the parameterization of the effects of sets of impacts where interactions are highly uncertain and empirical data severely limited, i.e., situations that would typically invoke the Precautionary Principle.KEY WORDS: Fitness landscapes; Precautionary Principle; Nonlinear interactions; Graph theoryhttp://link.springer-ny.com/link/service/journals/00267/bibs/24n1p121.html

Sequestering carbon in natural forests

Closed forests cover about 3 billion hectares, or 20% of the world's total land area (excluding Antarctica). Forest plantations comprise less than 1% of this area. Natural forests range from the intensively managed ones of Central Europe and Scandinavia to the wild boreal forests of Russia and Canada and the deep jungles and dry forests of the tropics. Numerous techniques—largely drawn from the ordinary repertoire of forest management—are available to enhance our ability of these forests to sequester and store C. Although the costs of sequestering additional C in these forests may be quite low (even in comparison with intensive plantation options), increased use of natural forests for this purpose raises a host of concerns about competing forest uses, biological risk, and the capacity to actually measure the incremental C sequestered. The problems of poverty, expanding populations, weak institutions, incomplete scientific knowledge, and climatic change itself will challenge the world's capacity to use natural forests as part of a CO2 control strategy.