Electric vehicles (Electric Vehicles) are at the vanguard of the global dispensation to sustainable transportation, depicting a pivotal step toward diminishing greenhouse gas emissions and reliance on fossil fuels. Notwithstanding, the adoption of Electric Vehicles has been growing in the USA, but their future remains at a crossroads. The objective of the research is to design and execute machine learning models capable of providing accurate predictions of future trends in electric vehicle adoption in the USA. The dataset gathered for analyzing EV adoption in the USA comprises data across three primary categories: environmental data, economic indicators, and policy-related data. The economic indicators include household income, fuel prices, electricity rates, and lithium battery costs that affect EV purchasing power obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Environmental data include greenhouse gas emissions and air quality indices from the EPA, providing information on regional environmental conditions that might affect EV attractiveness. Other policy data included federal and state incentives such as tax credits, rebates, and EV infrastructure data, collected from the U.S. Led by the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center and the Energy Laboratory, additional EV sales trends were pulled from databases of the automotive industry. In this research project, credible and proven machine learning models were employed, most notably, Linear Regression, Random Forest, and XG-Boost. The performance of the models was tested for EV adoption prediction by considering a few important metrics: Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and R-squared (R²). From the model performance metrics presented, the Gradient Boosting Regressor and Random Forest models performed far better by a big margin than Linear Regression. The prediction models, particularly, the Random Forest regressors and Gradient Boosting regressors demonstrated incredible forecasting of electric vehicle adoption. The model works excellently on the premise that historical data with relevant features can be utilized to gain some valuable insight into future trends. Policy-makers interested in stimulating the wider use of electric vehicles can ensure that targeted policies address both current barriers and future demands. Results of this analysis suggest incentives, such as tax credits, rebates, and subsidies, are some of the most common actions to reduce the upfront cost of an EV, a key circumventing factor in the choice that many consumers face.
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