Incidence Counts Research Articles

Levels and Changes in Defensive Firearm Use by US Crime Victims, 1987‒2021.

Objectives. To examine levels and temporal changes in the frequency of defensive gun use by US crime victims. Methods. We computed national-level counts of criminal incidents involving firearm defense during 3 periods: 1993 to 2005, 2007 to 2015, and 2016 to 2021. We also considered earlier national estimates for 1987 to 1990. The data came from the US Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). We counted firearm defenses as incidents in which victims used a gun to threaten or attack an offender. Results. Over the 4 periods, for all crimes, victims reported gun defenses in an average range of between 61 000 and 65 000 incidents per year. This included between 38 000 and 53 000 personal (violent) incidents and between 12 000 and 23 000 household (property) incidents. Conclusions. Firearm defenses occurred at a relatively low and nearly constant level over the 35-year period. Although some victims use guns for defense, these uses are infrequent compared with the incidence of crime. Public Health Implications. The continuing relative rarity of NCVS armed defenses suggests that claims about the protective benefits of widespread firearm ownership may be overstated. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(12):1384-1387. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307838).

Robust safety monitoring and signal detection using alternatives to the standard poisson distribution

ABSTRACT Proper and timely characterization of the safety profile of a pharmaceutical product under development is imperative for assessing the overall benefit-risk relationship of the product and for making key development decisions. For ongoing clinical development, a comprehensive and robust safety monitoring and safety signal detection program which is based upon quantitative statistical reasoning is critical. Methods presented here can be applied to safety signal detection and periodic safety monitoring. Various statistical properties, distributions, and models, all utilizing a Bayesian framework are considered and further examined in order to identify robust methods applicable to a broad set of scenarios and situations. Methods developed for incidence counts (including those with under-dispersed distributions) with variable time-at-risk and with underlying constant or non-constant hazard rates, are proposed and compared to traditional methods designed to assess adverse event incidence rates or binomial incidence proportions (which assume an underlying constant hazard rate and subsequent Poisson distribution for modeling event counts).

Metformin dampens the progression of cholangiofibrosis induced by thioacetamide using deep learning

PurposeThe consistent use of metformin has been linked to a reduced incidence of neoplastic diseases among diabetic populations. As a preventive intervention, metformin may offer a more favorable risk-benefit profile. Here, we explored the efficacy of metformin in the primary prevention of cholangiofibrosis, which can precede the carcinogen-induced development of cholangiocarcinoma (CCA). Our objective was to assess the potential of metformin to act as an intervention prior to the onset of these conditions. MethodsA rat model of thioacetamide (TAA)-induced cholangiofibrosis was utilized to assess the impact of metformin on the induction process of cholangiocarcinoma (CCA). Liver tissues were harvested and analyzed histologically using light microscopy, complemented by a deep-learning convolutional neural network for enhanced evaluation. Additionally, RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) was performed to investigate the genetic alterations associated with metformin treatment in this TAA-induced cholangiofibrosis model. ResultsIn the rat model, the TAA control group exhibited an increased incidence and average count of cholangiofibrosis cases in the liver, with rates of 100 % and an average of 12.0, compared to the metformin-treated group, which showed an incidence of 70 % and an average of 3.3. Notably, the progression from normal cholangioles to cholangiofibrosis was associated with the upregulation of several proteins critical for metabolic processes and the tumor microenvironment. These alterations were significantly mitigated by metformin treatment. ConclusionsLong-term metformin use may offer protective benefits against cholangiofibrosis, partially by regulating metabolic processes and improving the tumor microenvironment.

Crime dynamics in Edmonton’s train stations: analysing hot spots, harm spots and offender patterns

PurposeThe objectives of this study are to (a) identify spatial and temporal crime concentrations, (b) supplement the traditional place-based analysis that defines hot spots based on counted incidents with an analysis of crime severity and (c) add to the research of hot spots with an analysis of offender data.Design/methodology/approachThis study explores crime concentration in mass transit settings, focusing on Edmonton’s Light Rail Transit (LRT) stations in 2017–2022. Pareto curves are used to observe the degree of concentration of crime in certain locations using multiple estimates; trajectory analysis is then used to observe crime patterns in the data on both places and offenders.FindingsA total of 16.3% of stations accounted for 50% of recorded incidents. Train stations with high or low crime counts and severity remained as such consistently over time. Additionally, 3.6% of offenders accounted for 50% of incident count, while 5% accounted for 50% of harm. We did not observe differences in the patterns and distributions of crime concentrations when comparing crime counts and harm.Research limitations/implicationsHot spots and harm spots are synonymous in low-crime-harm environments: high-harm incidents are outliers, and their weight in the average crime severity score is limited. More sensitive severity measures are needed for high-frequenty, low-harm enviornments. Practical implicationsThe findings underscore the benefits of integrating offender data in place-based applied research.Originality/valueThe findings provide additional evidence on the utility of place-based criminology and potentially cost-effective interventions.

Measurement error–tolerant Poisson regression for Valley Fever incidence prediction

The incidence of Valley Fever can be predicted using a Poisson regression model, which links the expected incidence count to influential covariates with model coefficients. In real-world practice, the estimated model coefficients are sensitive to the inevitable measurement errors in the covariates, which are usually manifested as classical errors and/or Berkson errors. While conventional methods have separately addressed each type of error, the joint consideration of both, referred to as mixture measurement error in this article, is currently absent from the existing literature, leaving model coefficient estimators with significant biases. This article presents a measurement-error tolerant Poisson regression to mitigate the impacts of the mixture measurement error in covariates of health-care data analysis. An error-structureadapted quasi-likelihood estimation method is proposed to enhance the accuracy of model estimation. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through a numerical case study built upon a Valley Fever investigation, validating its improved estimation accuracy and robustness.

Temporal trends and projections in the global burden of neck pain: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019 of neck pain burden, focusing on age-standardized incidence rates, age-standardized prevalence rates, and age-standardized years lived with disability (YLDs) rates at the global, regional, and national levels. The age-period-cohort analysis was used to estimate the effects of age (5-99 years), period (1990-2019), and cohort (1893-2012) at the global, regional, and national levels. Future projections for the global burden of neck pain from 2020 to 2044 were estimated using the nordpred age-period-cohort model. From 1990 to 2019, the global incidence, prevalence cases, and YLDs counts of neck pain have increased by 71.89%, 98.21%, and 78.17%, respectively. The joinpoint analysis indicated significant shifts in the global trends of age-standardized neck pain burden, which varied across regions and nations. The age-period-cohort model indicated that the neck pain burden was predominantly concentrated in middle-aged and older age, with period and cohort effects showing minimal variation from 1990 to 2019. Compared with 2019, the incident cases, prevalent cases, and YLDs counts of neck pain were projected to increase by 134%, 142%, and 140% by 2044. The global burden of neck pain has persisted at a relatively elevated level from 1990 to 2019, with projections indicating a continuing upward trend. Future research is urgently needed to better understand the predictors and clinical course of neck pain and to enhance prevention and management strategies.

An optimized filter design approach for enhancing imaging quality in industrial linear accelerator.

The polychromatic X-rays generated by a linear accelerator (Linac) often result in noticeable hardening artifacts in images, posing a significant challenge to accurate defect identification. To address this issue, a simple yet effective approach is to introduce filters at the radiation source outlet. However, current methods are often empirical, lacking scientifically sound metrics. This study introduces an innovative filter design method that optimizes filter performance by balancing the impact of ray intensity and energy on image quality. Firstly, different spectra under various materials and thicknesses of filters were obtained using GEometry ANd Tracking (Geant4) simulation. Subsequently, these spectra and their corresponding incident photon counts were used as input sources to generate different reconstructed images. By comprehensively comparing the intensity differences and noise in images of defective and non-defective regions, along with considering hardening indicators, the optimal filter was determined. The optimized filter was applied to a Linac-based X-ray computed tomography (CT) detection system designed for identifying defects in graphite materials within high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTR), with defect dimensions of 2 mm. After adding the filter, the hardening effect reduced by 22%, and the Defect Contrast Index (DCI) reached 3.226. The filter designed based on the parameters of Average Difference (AD) and Defect Contrast Index (DCI) can effectively improve the quality of defect images.

The association between street construction projects and community violence in New York City.

Community violence is a major cause of injury and death in the United States. Empirical studies have identified that some place-based interventions of urban private places, such as remediations of vacant lots and buildings, are associated with reductions in community violence in surrounding areas. The aim of this study was to examine whether routine maintenance and repair of urban public places (e.g., street construction projects) are also associated with reductions in community violence, proxied by violent crime. This staggered adoption difference-in-difference analysis investigated the association between street construction projects and community violence in New York City from 2010-2019, divided into 40 calendar quarters. The units of analysis were street-quarters (n = 155,280). Intervention street-quarters were those with completed projects in 2010-2019; control streets were those where projects were scheduled but not completed before 2019. The outcome of community violence was proxied by counts of crime and violence incidents reported to the New York Police Department, within street-quarters. There were 79,592 street-quarters with any community violence incidents (51.2%). We found that street construction projects were associated with a decrease in reckless endangerment (ATT = -0.013; 95% CI = -0.021, -0.004), robbery (ATT = -0.035; 95% CI = -0.063, -0.007), and weapons offenses (ATT = -0.016; 95% CI = -0.031, -0.001) occurring on street-quarters. Street construction projects may be yet another type of place-based intervention to reduce community violence.

Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2024.

Cancer surveillance data are essential to help understand where gaps exist and progress is being made in cancer control. We sought to summarize the expected impact of cancer in Canada in 2024, with projections of new cancer cases and deaths from cancer by sex and province or territory for all ages combined. We obtained data on new cancer cases (i.e., incidence, 1984-2019) and deaths from cancer (i.e., mortality, 1984-2020) from the Canadian Cancer Registry and Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database, respectively. We projected cancer incidence and mortality counts and rates to 2024 for 23 types of cancer, overall, by sex, and by province or territory. We calculated age-standardized rates using data from the 2011 Canadian standard population. In 2024, the number of new cancer cases and deaths from cancer are expected to reach 247 100 and 88 100, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR) are projected to decrease slightly from previous years for both males and females, with higher rates among males (ASIR 562.2 per 100 000 and ASMR 209.6 per 100 000 among males; ASIR 495.9 per 100 000 and ASMR 152.8 per 100 000 among females). The ASIRs and ASMRs of several common cancers are projected to continue to decrease (i.e., lung, colorectal, and prostate cancer), while those of several others are projected to increase (i.e., liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer, kidney cancer, melanoma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma). Although the overall incidence of cancer and associated mortality are declining, new cases and deaths in Canada are expected to increase in 2024, largely because of the growing and aging population. Efforts in prevention, screening, and treatment have reduced the impact of some cancers, but these short-term projections highlight the potential effect of cancer on people and health care systems in Canada.

ADULTERATION IN FOOD INDUSTRY IN 2023 - OVERVIEW

This review focuses on food fraud and shows a picture of the most critical notifications reported by the Knowledge Centre for Food Fraud and Quality worldwide during the year 2023. Knowledge4Policy (K4P) is the EU Commission's platform for evidence-based policymaking. This study aims to provide an overview of the cases of food fraud focused on specific food groups - (fish and seafood, oils and fats, fruit and vegetables, honey and sugar, meat and meat products, wine, alcohol, milk and dairy products, spices and herbs, grain-based food – cereals - bakery products, eggs, snacks, coffee, tea, cocoa, non-alcoholic beverages, dietic foods supplements, fortified food). The data on food fraud was divided based on world continents (Asia, Africa, South America, North- Central America, Australia, and Europe). The next part of our overview shows the count of food fraud incidents separately each month for 2023. Overall, 419 cases were registered worldwide in 66 countries in 2023. Most cases were registered in Europe, South America, Africa, North-Central America, and Australia. Based on our findings, we can conclude that the highest number of cases were registered in Pakistan, followed by Italy, Brazil, Nigeria, the Dominican Republic, and Australia. The most abundant was alcohol-beverages adulteration (18.13 % of the total number of cases reported in 2023 worldwide), followed by meat and meat products (15.03 %), fish and seafood (13.60 %), and grain-based food, cereals, and bakery products (11.69 %). Analysis of notification data showed that the most used type of fraud was grey market trading, mislabeling, document forgery, dilution/mixing, substitution, and unapproved enhancement. Food fraud databases serve as valuable tools for the food industry and regulatory bodies, aiding in mitigating food fraud risks.

Abstract P100: Global Burden of Atrial Fibrillation and Atrial Flutter and Its Trend From 1990-2019 in G20 Countries: Results From the GBD 2019

Background: Atrial Fibrillation and Atrial Flutter (Afib) ranks 6th in mortality and 7th in disability amongst all cardiovascular disease the G20 nations. Method: We employed 2019 Global Burden of Disease methodology. Afib and Flutter, non-fatal health outcomes, such as incidence and prevalence, were estimated using the Bayesian meta-regression tool (DisMod MR 2.1). Fatal health outcomes were assessed using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm), considering factors like age, gender, year, and location throughout the G20 from 1990 to 2019. Results: From 1990 to 2019, prevalence rose from 23.2 million (95%UI: 17.6-29.7) to 48.9 million (37.5-61.6). The annual percentage change (APC) in incidence surged by 102% (1.8-3.8 million), DALYs by 119% (3-6 million), and deaths by 168% (93,864-251,272). Despite these increases, the age-standardized rate per 100,000 person-years declined over the past three decades. In 2019, the U.S. reported the highest age-standardized incidence rate at 109.52 (88.97-131.92) per 100,000, while Sweden had the top mortality rate of 8.63 (4-10.32) per 100,000. The age group 65-69 had the peak incidence count of 700,768 (362,032-1,158,177). Meanwhile, the highest death count was in the 85-89 age bracket with 59,325 (48,618-70,077), and the most DALYs were in the 80-84 age group with 1,083,488 (882,995-1,323,533) in 2019. Males consistently faced a higher burden than females over this period. Conclusion: AFib and AF accounted for 1.88% deaths amongst all cardiovascular casualties in 2019. Clinicians in the G20 countries must prioritize early detection and intervention for Afib and flutter, especially in males and the elderly, given its escalating prevalence and its ranking as a major cause of death and disability. Public health strategies in the G20 nations should focus on targeted awareness and interventions to combat the rising burden of atrial fibrillation, with countries like the United States and Sweden requiring heightened attention due to their notably high incidence and mortality rates.

Year-round injury and illness surveillance in UK summer paralympic sport athletes: 2016–2019

ObjectiveTo identify the priority injuries and illnesses across UK summer Paralympic World Class Programmes (WCP).MethodsFour years (2016–2019) of electronic medical records from 360 athletes across 17 Paralympic WCP sports were...

Global epidemiology of cannabis use disorders and its trend from 1990 to 2019: Benchmarking analysis of the global burden of disease study.

Cannabis is one of the most widely used psychoactive substances globally, with an increasing trend in its legalization for both medical and recreational purposes in various countries. While cannabis offers potential therapeutic benefits, its regular use can lead to the development of Cannabis Use Disorders (CUDs). Understanding the epidemiology of CUDs is crucial in assessing the public health burden associated with cannabis use. Epidemiological parameters of CUDs were assessed using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) methodology across different age-groups, years, sexes, and locations worldwide from 1990-2019. Globally, for both sexes combined, prevalent cases of CUDs increased steadily from 17.1 million(95%UI=12.7-22.8million) in 1990 to 23.8-million(95%UI=17.8-30.9 million) in 2019. All age-adjusted highest number of incidence observed in High-Income-North-America(HINA)(121/100,000), followed by Australasia(100/100,000), Oceania(83.97/100,000), Tropical Latin America(69.59/100,000). Globally, age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate(ASDR) observed higher in HINA, followed by Australasia, and Western-Europe. In male, all-age incidence counts increased from 1.7 million(95%UI=1.3-2.4million) in 1990 to 2.4 million(95%UI=1.8-3.2 million) in 2019. The highest annual percentage of change in age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR) was found in East-Asia (22%) followed by Middle-East and North-Africa(MENA)(15%). The age group of 15-24 years exhibited the highest burden of CUDs. The widespread occurrence of CUDs on a global scale poses a substantial challenge to public health. Understanding the impact of CUDs and implementing evidence-based interventions is crucial in mitigating the associated individual, societal, and economic burdens. Continued research, collaboration, and knowledge dissemination are essential to inform policies, prevention efforts, and treatment strategies aimed at addressing CUDs on a global-scale.

Gut microbio-me and pancreatic cancer.

The incidence of pancreatic cancer (pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma - PDAC) is increasing, especially in developed countries. In 2021, 496,000new PDAC cases were dia-gnosed worldwide. In the Czech Republic, the incidence is one of the highest in the world, with 2,332new PDAC patients dia-gnosed in 2018. Due to the absence of symptoms in the early stages, approximately 50% of patients are initially dia-gnosed with distant metastases. Mortality is slightly lower than the incidence count and, despite significant advances in cancer research, PDAC remains afatal dia-gnosis. However, microbio-me seems to be an interesting approach, and not only in PDAC patients. Microbio-me is defined as the set of all microorganisms (microbio-ta, i.e. bacteria, fungi, viruses, archaea, and protozoa) and their genome in acertain environment. In aphysiological setting, the gut microbio-me is in symbio-sis with the host organism, maintaining the balance of metabolism, mucosal immunomodulation and regulating the digestion process. When dysregulation of the number or function of intestinal microorganisms occurs, dysbio-sis is developed. It may lead to metabolic and cardiovascular diseases, nervous system disorders, induction of intestinal inflammation, or carcinogenesis. Microbio-ta can induce carcinogenesis in multiple ways, such as by activating an inflammatory response, reducing the immune system's ability to eliminate damaged cells, and deregulation of the host genome by microbial metabolites. This deregulation may lead to an activation of pro-apoptotic and pro-proliferative proteins. To date, research shows that the gut or oral microbio-me may be involved in the development of PDAC. One of the most studied bacteria is Porphyromonas gingivalis. Other bacteria, such as Fusobacteria, Enterobacter, Klebsiella, Prevotella, and Rothia, have also been shown to play arole in PDAC. The aim of this review article is to point out one of the possible mechanisms of cancerogenesis in PDAC patients and its therapeutic influence to reduce the incidence and improve the prognosis of this aggressive disease.

Global burden and epidemiological prediction of polycystic ovary syndrome from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

To comprehensively assess the global, regional and national burden of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) in incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (DLYs) based on the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. This was a cross-sectional descriptive study. Data on PCOS incidence, prevalence, and DLYs from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the GBD study 2019. According to the commonwealth income, WHO region, and the sociodemographic index, the estimates were demonstrated along with the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). The EAPC data were analyzed by four levels of hierarchical clustering and displayed in the world map. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict the PCOS burden in the next 20 years. From 1990 to 2019, the number of PCOS incidence in one year increased from 1.4 million in 1990 to 2.1 million in 2019 (54.3%). Only the EAPC estimates of incidence in the Region of the Americas decreased, and their aged-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) values were the highest in 1990 and 2019. There was no significant correlation between human development index (HDI) and EAPC. However, when HDI < 0.7, EAPC of incidence and prevalence was positively correlated with HDI, and when HDI > 0.7, EAPC of incidence and prevalence was negatively correlated with HDI. Countries with the middle level HDI have the highest increasing trend of ASIR and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR). The 10 to 19 years old group had the highest incidence counts of PCOS globally. Besides, the ARIMA and BAPC model showed the consistent increasing trend of the burden of PCOS. In order to better promote the early diagnosis and treatment, expert consensus and diagnosis criteria should be formulated according to the characteristics of different ethnic groups or regions. It is necessary to emphasize the early screening and actively develop targeted drugs for PCOS.

A comparison of three algorithms in the filtering of a Markov-modulated non-homogeneous Poisson process

ABSTRACT A Markov-modulated non-homogeneous Poisson process (MMNPP), whose intensity process is designed to capture both the cyclical and nonrecurring trends, is considered for modelling the total count of cyber incidents. Extending the Expectation-Maximisation (EM) algorithm for the current MMPP literature, we derive the filters and smoothers to support the MMNPP online parameter estimation. A scaling transformation is introduced to address the numerical issue for large data sizes whilst maintaining accuracy. The filter- and smoother-based EM algorithms are then benchmarked to the maximum likelihood-based EM algorithm at the theoretical level. The differences emerge in the E-step of the EM procedure. Both the filtering and smoothing schemes, in conjunction with the change-of-measure technique, avoid the computing complication caused by the hidden regimes. In contrast to the usual EM algorithm, the said two algorithms could be implemented given only the incident counts data without the specific times of jumps. Within the data compiled by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the filter-based algorithm performs better than the algorithm involving smoothers. The benchmarked algorithm may do well in calibration under the presence of extreme incident counts with an extremely low frequency; however, overfitting may occur. For most practical applications involving 2 or 3 regimes, both algorithms are superior when it comes to efficiency, real-time update, and low computational cost. The benchmarked algorithm is better when there are more regimes under relatively closer intensities. Overall, the filter-based algorithm gives better estimation, especially if there is a low-frequency regime and the flexible binning of the data set is an important consideration.

Twenty-five years of child welfare data in Ontario, Canada: Examining the response of child welfare to reports of children's exposure to intimate partner violence (IPV)

BackgroundIncreases in child welfare investigations involving children's exposure to intimate partner violence (IPV) in Ontario are likely the result of three factors: 1) changes to legislation, policy, and assessment instruments; 2) increased awareness of the risks of exposure to IPV for children, and 3) referrals from professionals (e.g., police). ObjectivesUsing data from 6 cycles of the Ontario Incidence Study of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect (OIS) (1993, 1998, 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018), this paper will examine the changes of the incidence rates of IPV exposure, providing important context for a type of investigation that is not well understood in Ontario. MethodsThe incidence of investigations where the primary concern of the investigating worker is IPV was derived and compared across OIS cycles. Investigation were compared across cycles using incidence counts. ResultsAfter the nearly 2-fold increase of investigations for all maltreatment types in Ontario between 1998 and 2003, IPV investigations are the only type that continue to increase. There is a growing gap between these investigations and substantiating child maltreatment. Rates of placement have not changed over time, remaining low. Rates of transfers and referrals have increased but not significantly. ConclusionsThe continued growth in the rate of child welfare investigations involving exposure to IPV as well as the overwhelming endorsement of substantiated exposure to IPV, while maintaining the same proportion of transfers to ongoing child welfare services and low placement rates, is a significant concern for Ontario.

Do US State Breach Notification Laws Decrease Firm Data Breaches?

Abstract From 2003 to 2018, all 50 states and the District of Columbia enacted breach notification laws (BNLs) mandating that firms suffering data breaches provide timely notification to affected persons and others about breach incidents and mitigation responses. BNLs were supposed to decrease data breaches and develop a market for data privacy where firms could strike their preferred balance between data security quality and cost. We find no systemic evidence for either supposition. Results from two-way difference-in-difference analyses indicate no decrease in data breach incident counts or magnitudes after BNLs are enacted. Results also indicate no longer-term decrease in data misuse after breaches. These non-effects appear to be precisely estimated nulls that persist for different firms, time-periods, data-breach types, and BNL types. Apparently inconsistent notification standards and inadequate information dissemination to the public may explain BNL ineffectiveness. An alternative federal regime may address these shortcomings and let a national BNL achieve goals state BNLs have apparently failed to meet.

The global burden of traumatic amputation in 204 countries and territories.

Traumatic amputation leads to disability and imposes a heavy health burden. This study aims to explore the current status and temporal trends of the global burden of traumatic amputation according to sex, age, amputation site, cause, and reginal level of social development. The data were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2019. Prevalence, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs) and corresponding age-standardized rate were compared. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was applied to reflect trends in age-standardized rates over a specific period. Spearman rank test and curve fitting methods were used to analyze the relationship between disease burden and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Globally, the incidence and prevalence number of traumatic amputation increased from 11.37 million and 370.25 million in 1990, to 13.23 million and 552.45 million in 2019, with a raise of 16.4 and 49.2%, respectively. But the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) (EAPC = -0.56; 95%CI, -0.72 to -0.41) and age-standardize prevalence rate (ASPR) (EAPC = -0.63; 95%CI, -0.74 to -0.52) declined during this period. The YLDs count also increased by 39.2% globally (from 5.28 million to 7.35 million), while the age-standardize YLDs rate (ASYR) decreased by an average of 1.00% per year (95% CI, -1.10 to -0.90) from 1990 to 2019. The incidence, prevalence, and YLDs rate of traumatic amputation continue to increase with age. Traumatic amputations were most common in the fingers, while unilateral lower limb amputation caused the greatest burden of disability. ASIR and SDI were positively correlated (ρ = 0.442, p < 0.001), while ASYR and SDI were not significantly correlated (ρ = -0.030, p = 0.669), and EAPC in ASYR and SDI were negatively correlated (ρ = -0.275, p < 0.001). Exposure to mechanical forces and falls were the leading causes of traumatic amputation. Despite the declining trends in ASIR, ASPR, and ASYR, the incidence, prevalence, and YLDs counts of traumatic amputation have increased significantly worldwide, especially in the older adults population. With the population aging, targeted health policies are needed to address the increasing global burden of traumatic amputations in the future.

Accelerating Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic models using incidence data

We consider the case of performing Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic compartment models, using incomplete time course data consisting of incidence counts that are either the number of new infections or removals in time intervals of fixed length. We eschew the most natural Markov jump process representation for reasons of computational efficiency, and focus on a stochastic differential equation representation. This is further approximated to give a tractable Gaussian process, that is, the linear noise approximation (LNA). Unless the observation model linking the LNA to data is both linear and Gaussian, the observed data likelihood remains intractable. It is in this setting that we consider two approaches for marginalising over the latent process: a correlated pseudo-marginal method and analytic marginalisation via a Gaussian approximation of the observation model. We compare and contrast these approaches using synthetic data before applying the best performing method to real data consisting of removal incidence of oak processionary moth nests in Richmond Park, London. Our approach further allows comparison between various competing compartment models.