Incidence Rate Of Chronic Kidney Disease Research Articles

A cohort study of correlation between fasting plasma glucose trajectory and new-onset chronic kidney disease in elderly population in Nanjing

Objective: To explore the correlation between fasting plasma glucose (FPG) trajectory and new-onset chronic kidney disease (CKD) in elderly population (≥65 years old) in Nanjing. Methods: The study cohort was composed of 14 763 subjects who met the inclusion criteria in the population in elderly health examination in Nanjing. Based on the FPG levels detected in health examination from 2018 to 2021 (logarithm was used for normal distribution), three different FPG trajectory groups were determined using the SAS Proc Traj program, i.e. low-stable group, medium-stable group, and high-stable group. The incidence of CKD in 2022 was analyzed, and log-rank test was performed to compare the differences of cumulative incidence of new-onset CKD among different trajectory groups. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze the correlation between different FPG trajectories and new-onset CKD. Results: The mean follow-up time was (416.09±81.96) days. The follow-up time of the 500th day was selected to analyze the cumulative incidence rate of CKD in different FPG trajectory groups, and the cumulative incidence rate of CKD in the low-stable group, the medium-stable group, and the high-stable group of FPG increased with elevated trajectory, which was 15.3%, 21.8%, and 29.3%, respectively (log-rank test χ²=151.16, P<0.001). Cox proportional hazards regression model analysis showed that compared with the low-stable group, the medium-stable group and the high-stable group were all at risk for new-onset CKD. After adjusting for multiple confounding factors, the analysis by Cox proportional hazards regression model 4 indicated that the risk for CKD in medium-stable and high-stable groups were still 1.676 (95%CI: 1.462-1.921) times and 2.007 (95%CI: 1.562-2.579) times higher than that in low-stable group. Conclusions: Elevated FPG change trajectory level is a risk factor for new-onset CKD, and persistently high level of FPG increase the risk for CKD. FPG should be monitored in elderly population by follow up, and individualized prevention and control measures for CKD should be developed for different trajectory groups.

Optimal tacrolimus levels for reducing CKD risk and the impact of intrapatient variability on CKD and ESRD development following liver transplantation.

This study aimed to identify the risk factors for chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) following liver transplantation (LT), with a specific focus on tacrolimus levels and intrapatient variability (IPV). Among the 1,076 patients who underwent LT between 2000 and 2018, 952 were included in the analysis. The tacrolimus doses and levels were recorded every 3 months, and the IPV was calculated using the coefficient of variability. The cumulative incidence rates of CKD and ESRD were calculated based on baseline kidney function at the time of LT. The impact of tacrolimus levels and their IPV on the development of CKD and ESRD was evaluated, and the significant risk factors were identified. Within a median follow-up of 97.3 months, the 5-year cumulative incidence rates of CKD (0.58 vs. 0.24) and ESRD (0.07 vs. 0.01) were significantly higher in the acute kidney injury (AKI) group than in the normal glomerular filtration rate (GFR) group. In the normal GFR group, the tacrolimus levels were identified as a risk factor for CKD, with a level of ≤4.5 ng/mL suggested as optimal for minimizing the risk of CKD. Furthermore, the IPV of tacrolimus levels and doses emerged as a significant risk factor for CKD development in both groups (P<0.05), with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate also being a risk factor in HBV-infected patients. The IPV of tacrolimus levels was also a significant factor in ESRD development (P<0.05). This study elucidated the optimal tacrolimus through level and highlighted the impact of IPV on the CKD and ESRD development post-LT.

Incidence rate of chronic kidney disease and its association with long-term nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use in ankylosing spondylitis: A nationwide population-based study.

Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) predominantly affects the spine and sacroiliac joints, with rare renal involvement. We investigated the incidence rate and risk factors for chronic kidney disease (CKD) in patients with AS and its relationship with long-term nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use. We retrospectively analyzed data of patients diagnosed with AS from the Korean National Health Insurance service. The 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year Assessment of SpondyloArthritis International Society (ASAS) NSAID Intake Scores were categorized into four groups, as follows: =0, >0 and ≤33.3, 33.3-66.6, and >66.6. Of the 12 000 patients with AS, 150 were identified with CKD, and the incidence rate was 4.64 per 10 000 patient-years. Factors significantly associated with CKD included age ≥60 years, Charlson Comorbidity Index, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus. In the nested case-control analysis, among the ASAS NSAIDs Intake Scores for 0-365 days from diagnosis, the ≥66.6 group had a significantly lower odds ratio than those of the =0 group. The present study established the incidence rate of CKD in Korean patients with AS. Though older age and comorbidities were found to be associated with a higher CKD risk, long-term NSAID use was associated with a lower risk. Therefore, the optimal use of NSAIDs in inflammatory diseases requires extensive research.

#1433 Geographical variation in chronic kidney disease: a nationwide cohort study in Denmark

Abstract Background and Aims Chronic kidney disease (CKD) represents a significant and growing global health challenge, especially among aging populations. Despite declines in mortality from other non-communicable diseases, CKD-related mortality has remained stable, underscoring the need for enhanced management strategies. Primary care physicians play a crucial role in early detection and appropriate intervention. Understanding geographical variation in CKD prevalence and incidence is essential for clinicians and policy makers, informing the development of targeted interventions and resource allocation strategies. This study investigates CKD in Denmark, assessing variations in prevalence and incidence across rural and urban areas. Method This nationwide cohort study included all Danish residents aged ≥18 years as of January 1, 2019. Patients with CKD were identified using measurements of eGFR from the Register of Laboratory results for Research. CKD was defined according to KDIGO as at least two reported outpatient eGFR &amp;lt;60 ml/min/1.73 m2 at least 90 days apart. Population characteristics, CKD prevalence and CKD incidence were analyzed by urbanicity of residence municipality (capital, large city, provincial, sub-rural and rural municipalities). Two different models were used to estimate incidence rates; a crude model and a model using propensity score weighting for standardization, accounting for age and sex. Results The study included 4,466,041 Danish residents. There was variation in population characteristics and CKD incidence between urban and rural areas such as CKD prevalence, hypertension, diabetes, and Charlson Comorbidity Index. The crude model showed geographical differences in CKD incidence rates varying between 7.4 and 12.8 per 1,000 person-years in large city municipalities and rural municipalities, respectively. The standardized model showed less variation, with incidence rates ranging from 9.2 to 10.5 cases of CKD per 1,000 person years. Conclusion The study illuminates geographical variations in CKD prevalence and incidence across Danish rural and urban municipalities. After standardization for age and sex, there was only minor variation in incidence rates of CKD, suggesting that variation could largely be explained by differences in demographic, highlighting the need for targeted interventions accounting for diverse population characteristics in different geographic regions.

#1280 Temporal trends in chronic kidney disease and mortality after acute kidney injury

Abstract Background and Aims In 2015, the International Society of Nephrology formulated the “0by25” initiative, which aims to eliminate all preventable deaths due to acute kidney injury (AKI) by 2025. Numerus publications have added focus to the importance of clinical awareness and improved treatment for AKI. Ideally, this should translate to lower rates of AKI-associated adverse outcomes such as chronic kidney disease (CKD) and death. To our knowledge, there are no studies describing temporal trends in the incidence of CKD following AKI. Moreover, only a few studies have examined the temporal trends in mortality following AKI and these studies included highly selected groups of patients not representative of general hospitalized patients and to an even lesser degree the general population. Hence, further examination of the prognosis after AKI is required to understand temporal trends in the quality of care for AKI and establish a foundation for both preventive and therapeutic measures. Therefore, we examined the temporal trends in CKD and mortality after AKI in Denmark. Method We identified adult individuals with AKI from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2018 using population-based plasma creatinine (pCr) data covering both the primary care and hospital settings. AKI was defined in accordance with the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) creatinine criteria. CKD after AKI was defined as ≥2 eGFR measurements from primary care or planned outpatient hospital visits &amp;lt;60 mL/min/1.73 m2 separated by a period of ≥90 days or by a hospital diagnoses code related to chronic dialysis or kidney transplantation. Information on all-cause death was obtained from the Danish Civil Registration System. Annual crude and sex-and-age-standardized 1-year incidence rates of CKD and mortality after AKI were estimated using direct standardization. Results During the 2007-2018 period, 406,207 AKIs were identified in 274,269 distinct Danish residents. The mean age at the time of first AKI was 72 years (IQR, 61; 81) and 137,185 (50%) of first-time AKIs occurred in males. Twenty-eight percent of individuals had a Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score of 0, while 42% had a CCI score of 1-2, and 30% a CCI score ≥3. The mean age, sex, and CCI score distributions were stable across the study period. The age- and sex-standardized incidence rate of CKD after AKI ranged from 102 (95% CI, 99-106) per 1000 person-years in 2018 to 126 (95% CI, 119-133) per 1000 person-years in 2014. Besides a peak in 2014, the incidence of CKD after AKI showed little variation throughout the period. The age-and sex-standardized mortality rate after AKI ranged from 317 (95% CI, 311-323) per 1000 person-years in 2018 to 392 (95% CI, 379-406) per 1000 person-years in 2007. From 2007 to 2013 there was a stable decline in the mortality rate after AKI. From 2014 to 2018 the rate showed little variation. Conclusion The rate of CKD after AKI was stable throughout the period, while there was a decline in mortality after AKI, especially in the years from 2007 to 2013. The decline in mortality after AKI is encouraging; however, the stable rate of CKD after AKI, despite increasing knowledge on AKI treatment and CKD prevention, warrants an evaluation of the contemporary quality of care for AKI in Denmark.

Relationship between the longitudinal trajectory of the triglyceride-glucose index and the development of CKD: an 8-year retrospective longitudinal cohort study.

The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, a simple surrogate marker of insulin resistance, is significantly associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, there is limited research on the longitudinal trajectory of TyG index over time and its relationship with CKD. To analyse the characteristics of the longitudinal trajectory of the TyG index over time and its association with the development of CKD in a health check-up population. Participants who underwent at least three annual health check-ups at the Health Management Center of Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital from 2015 to 2022 were included in this retrospective cohort study. The TyG index was calculated as ln [fasting triglycerides (mg/dL) × fasting glucose (mg/dL)/2]. The latent class mixed model (LCMM) was used to identify the TyG index trajectory of the study population. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the CKD incidence risk in different quartile groups and the association of changes in the TyG index trajectory with the development of CKD. A total of 4,921 participants were included in this study, and they were divided into four groups according to the quartiles of the baseline TyG index: Q1 (5.43-6.66), Q2 (6.67-7.04), Q3 (7.05-7.43), and Q4 (7.43-9.97). There was no difference in the risk of CKD occurrence among the TyG groups. Three different TyG index trajectories were identified in this study: a high-level group, middle-level stable group and low-level stable group, respectively. The incidence rate of CKD in the high-level TyG index trajectory group was 2.399 times greater than that in the low-level stable trajectory group (HR=2.399, 95% CI 1.167-4.935). Individuals with long-term exposure to high TyG index levels had a significantly greater risk of CKD. Routine monitoring of the TyG index and its longitudinal trend will aid in the risk stratification of CKD in the general population and will be helpful for CKD prevention and targeted management.

The Factors Influencing Chronic Kidney Disease Incidence: Database from the Korean National Health Insurance Sharing Service (NHISS).

Background: The global prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is increasing, with diabetes accounting for the highest proportion. We analyzed the influence of clinical factors on the incidence of CKD according to the renal function, primary focusing on patients with diabetes. Methods: We used the Sample Cohorts Database provided by the National Health Insurance Sharing Service (NHISS) in Korea. Participants aged ≥ 40 years who underwent a health checkup in 2009 were categorized into six groups based on their eGFR values (<60 mL/min, 60-89 mL/min, ≥90 mL/min) and the presence of diabetes. And all patients with CKD at 2009 screening were excluded. The participants were tracked from 2010 to 31 December 2019. The CKD incidence rate according to the eGFR values and the effect of the accompanying factors on CKD incidence were confirmed. Results: 148,089 people without CKD were analyzed. The CKD incidence rate was highest in those with eGFR < 60 mL/min with diabetes and lowest in those with eGFR ≥ 90 mL/min without diabetes. The CKD incidence rates were similar between the eGFR < 60 mL/min group without diabetes and the eGFR 60-89 mL/min group with diabetes. Compared to under 44 years of age, the hazard ratio of CKD incidence was 8 times higher in over 75 years of age. Men had a 1.7-fold higher risk of developing CKD than women. Current smoker, hypertension, dyslipidemia, myocardial infarction history, and atrial fibrillation and flutter increased the risk of CKD incidence. Age, diabetes, and baseline eGFR are important factors in the occurrence of CKD. As age increases, the risk of developing CKD in men increases compared to women. Conclusions: These results will be helpful in predicting risk groups for CKD and establishing strategies to lowering CKD incidence.

The association between sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors vs dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors and renal outcomes in people discharged from hospital with type 2 diabetes: A population-based cohort study.

We investigated the association between post-hospital discharge use of sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2is) compared to dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4is) and the incidence of hospitalization for acute renal failure (ARF) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) in people with type 2 diabetes. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked hospital and prescription data. Our cohort included people aged ≥30 years with type 2 diabetes discharged from a hospital in Victoria, Australia, from December 2013 to June 2018. We compared new users of SGLT-2is with new users of DPP-4is following discharge. People were followed from first dispensing of a SGLT-2i or DPP-4i to a subsequent hospital admission for ARF or CKD. We used competing risk models with inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) to estimate subhazard ratios. In total, 9620 people initiated SGLT-2is and 9962 initiated DPP-4is. The incidence rate of ARF was 12.3 per 1000 person-years (median years of follow-up [interquartile range [IQR] 1.4 [0.7-2.2]) among SGLT-2i initiators and 18.9 per 1000 person-years (median years of follow-up [IQR] 1.7 [0.8-2.6]) among DPP-4i initiators (adjusted subhazard ratio with IPTW 0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.70-0.86). The incidence rate of CKD was 6.0 per 1000 person-years (median years of follow-up [IQR] 1.4 [0.7-2.2]) among SGLT-2i initiators and 8.9 per 1000 person-years (median years of follow-up [IQR] 1.7 [0.8-2.6]) among DPP-4i initiators (adjusted subhazard ratio with IPTW 0.83; 95% CI 0.73-0.94). Real-world data support using SGLT-2is over DPP-4is for preventing acute and chronic renal events in people with type 2 diabetes.

Diagnosis codes underestimate chronic kidney disease incidence compared with eGFR-based evidence: a retrospective observational study of patients with type 2 diabetes in UK primary care.

Type two diabetes (T2D) is a leading cause of both chronic kidney disease (CKD) and onward progression to end-stage renal disease. Timely diagnosis coding of CKD in patients with T2D could lead to improvements in quality of care and patient outcomes. To assess the consistency between estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)-based evidence of CKD and CKD diagnosis coding in UK primary care. A retrospective analysis of electronic health record data in a cohort of people with T2D from 60 primary care centres within England between 2012 and 2022. We estimated the incidence rate of CKD per 100 person-years using eGFR-based CKD and diagnosis codes. Logistic regression was applied to establish which attributes were associated with diagnosis coding. Time from eGFR-based CKD to entry of a diagnosis code was summarised using the median and interquartile range. The overall incidence of CKD was 2.32 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.24 to 2.41) and significantly higher for eGFR-based criteria than diagnosis codes: 1.98 (95% CI = 1.90 to 2.05) versus 1.06 (95% CI = 1.00 to 1.11), respectively; P<0.001. Only 45.4% of CKD incidences identified using eGFR-based criteria had a corresponding diagnosis code. Patients who were younger, had a higher CKD stage (G4), had an observed urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (A1), or no observed HbA1c in the past year were more likely to have a diagnosis code. Diagnosis coding of patients with eGFR-based evidence of CKD in UK primary care is poor within patients with T2D, despite CKD being a well-known complication of diabetes.

The correlation of urinary strontium with the risk of chronic kidney disease among the general United States population.

This study sought to illustrate whether urinary strontium levels were related to developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the United States population. A total of 5,005 subjects were identified from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2011-2016. Survey-weighted logistic regression analysis, multivariate linear regression analysis, restricted cubic spline (RCS) plots curve and stratified analyses were undertaken to explicate the correlation between urinary strontium and CKD. With the increase of urinary strontium, the incidence rate of CKD and urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR) levels gradually decreased, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) levels gradually increased. After controlling all confounders, only urinary strontium in the fourth quartile was correlated to a lower CKD prevalence (OR: 0.59; 95% CI, 0.44-0.79) compared to the lowest quartile. Multivariate linear regression analysis showed that urinary strontium was positively correlated with eGFR but negatively with UACR. RCS curve suggested a nonlinear relationship between urinary strontium and CKD (P for non-linearity <0.001). Stratified analyses indicated no significant difference in the correlation between urinary strontium and CKD among different subgroups. Urinary strontium was strongly correlated with a low risk of CKD, and this association was non-linear among the US population.

Deficiencies in the Recognition and Reporting of Chronic Kidney Disease in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus; A Hungarian Nationwide Analysis.

Objectives: Recognition of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is crucial in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We conducted a nationwide epidemiological study to evaluate T2DM-associated CKD in Hungary between 2016 and 2020. Methods: Annual incidence and prevalence rates of registered CKD amongst all pharmacologically treated T2DM patients were analyzed in different age-groups by the central database of the Hungarian Health Insurance Fund Management. Statistical methods included Poisson regression, Bonferroni test, Chi-square test. Results: We found 499,029 T2DM patients and 48,902 CKD patients in 2016, and 586,075 T2DM patients and 38,347 CKD patients in 2020. The majority of all prevalent T2DM and CKD patients were older (aged 60-69years: 34.1% and 25.8%; ≥70years: 36.1% and 64.4%, respectively). The annual incidence of T2DM and incidence rates of CKD in T2DM decreased in 2017-2020 (p < 0.001). The annual prevalence of T2DM increased (p < 0.01), the prevalence rates of CKD in T2DM were low and decreased from 9.8% to 6.5% in 2016-2020 (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Incidence and prevalence of T2DM-associated CKD decreased significantly in Hungary in 2016-2020. Lower prevalence rates of CKD may suggest under-recognition and/or under-reporting.

#5673 ESTIMATING AND VALIDATING MEASURES OF CKD PREVALENCE AND INCIDENCE USING OBSERVATIONAL AND CLAIMS DATA IN PERSONS AGED 70+

Abstract Background and Aims Estimating prevalence and incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) based on claims data often underlies bias and limitations due to uncertainty of diagnostic validity. We investigated CKD prevalence and incidence over time using data from a community-dwelling cohort of individuals aged 70+ linked to individual claims data. We assessed the diagnostic validity of the claims-based compared with the eGFR-based CKD definition. Method We assessed CKD prevalence and incidence in two data sources: 1) eGFR values of participants aged 70+ (n = 2,069) of the Berlin Initiative Study (BIS), including five biennial study visits from 2009-2019, and 2) claims data of BIS participants matched on person-level. Using eGFR, we defined CKD prevalence as eGFR &amp;lt;60 ml/min/1.73m² calculated with the creatinine-based CKD-EPI (2009) equation. For each study visit, prevalent CKD cases were considered as incident if eGFR was ≥60 ml/min/1.73m² in the respective previous study visit. In claims data, in- and outpatient ICD-10 diagnoses (N18.3, N18.4, N18.5, N18.8, N18.9, N19) in the year preceding and/or following the study visit date were used to determine CKD prevalence. Incidence was defined as prevalent cases without a diagnosis in the year preceding the first CKD diagnosis. The denominator for incidence was defined as all persons at risk, i.e., who were not prevalent in a respective previous study visit and still under observation. We assessed the diagnostic validity of claims-based CKD prevalence and incidence using eGFR data as a reference. Analyses were stratified by sex. Results Between 2009 and 2019, CKD prevalence increased from 0.42 to 0.51 based on eGFR and from 0.30 to 0.43 based on claims data. Incidence varied between 0.16–0.22 using eGFR and 0.07–0.13 using BIS claims data. There was no clear time trend for incidence in any data source. Diagnostic validity of claims-based CKD prevalence and incidence detection is displayed in Table 1. Sensitivity for prevalence increased while other indicators remained stable over time. Detection of incident cases showed lower sensitivity (0.18–0.30 vs. 0.58–0.70) and PPVs (0.40–0.60 vs. 0.79–0.83) compared to prevalence, respectively. Prevalence and incidence based on claims data were slightly higher in males compared to females (Figure 1). Conclusion Using the eGFR-based or claims-based definition of CKD we found an increase in prevalence between 2009 and 2019. This might be due to the introduction of the KDIGO guidelines in 2012. During the same time, CKD incidence rates were stable. Comparing the claims-based with eGFR-based CKD definition, we found a sensitivity of 0.58-0.70 for prevalence and 0.18-0.30 for incidence, indicating that there is a risk of underdetection of CKD when using solely claims data, in particular for incident cases.

The Bidirectional Association of Chronic Kidney Disease, Type 2 Diabetes, Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease, and Heart Failure: The Cardio-Renal-Metabolic Syndrome.

Background: The cardiometabolic syndrome focuses on the association between type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), whereas the cardiorenal syndrome focuses on the association between chronic kidney disease (CKD) and heart failure (HF). Consideration of these two syndromes as a single entity has not been well described. Methods: We used the electronic medical records of Kaiser Permanente Northwest to identify 387,985 members aged 18+ years with a serum creatinine measured from 2005 to 2017. If the estimated glomerular filtration rate was <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2, we required a second confirmatory measurement 3-12 months later. Patients were followed through 2019. We calculated the age- and gender-adjusted incidence and progression of CKD per 1000 person-years using generalized estimating equations. We used Cox proportional hazard models to assess the time-dependent effect of each condition on incidence of the other conditions. Results: CKD incidence rates were highest in patients with T2DM, ASCVD, and HF (27.0 per 1000 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 24.8-29.4] vs. 5.9 [5.8-6.0] in patients with none of these conditions). Similar results were obtained for CKD progression (309.0, 283.9-336.4 for all three conditions vs. 147.9, 143.3-152.4 for no condition). In time-dependent models, all three conditions were independently associated with CKD incidence, being highest for HF (hazard ratio 2.14, 95% CI 2.07-2.21). All relationships between CKD, T2DM, ASCVD, and HF were significant and bidirectional. Conclusions: The presence of CKD, T2DM, HF, and ASCVD each conveys risk on the others. A cardiometabolic renal syndrome comprising these conditions may be an important disease entity that requires a comprehensive treatment approach.

National trends and projection of chronic kidney disease incidence according to etiology from 1990 to 2030 in Iran: a Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health problem worldwide. Predicting CKD incidence rates and case numbers at the national and global levels is vital for planning CKD prevention programs. Data on CKD incidence rates and case numbers in Iran from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease online database. The average annual percentage change was computed to determine the temporal trends in CKD age-standardized incidence rates from 1990 to 2019. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the CKD incidence rate and case numbers through 2030. Nationally, CKD cases increased from 97,300 in 1990 to 315,500 in 2019. The age-specific CKD incidence rate increased from 168.52 per 100,000 to 382.98 per 100,000 during the same period. Between 2020 and 2030, the number of CKD cases is projected to rise to 423,300. The age-specific CKD incidence rate is projected to increase to 469.04 in 2030 (95% credible interval, 399.20 to 538.87). In all age groups and etiological categories, the CKD incidence rate is forecasted to increase by 2030. CKD case numbers and incidence rates are anticipated to increase in Iran through 2030. The high level of CKD incidence in people with diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and glomerulonephritis, as well as in older people, suggests a deficiency of attention to these populations in current prevention plans and highlights their importance in future programs for the national control of CKD.

The impact of metabolic syndrome on chronic kidney disease development. Insights from a big prospective study.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) can progress over time and cause renal replacement therapy. Studies showed the association between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and CKD. Current evidence is from cross-sectional studies. There is a need for the robust data from big prospective cohort studies with long-term follow-up. This study investigated the association between CKD and MetS after 18 years of follow-up. Among 15,255 participants aged ≥20 years at baseline (1999-2005), after exclusion of CKD, cancer, and use of corticosteroids, 8987 participants entered the study and followed at a three-year cycle up to 2018. All participants were divided into five subgroups: (1) MetS-free, (2) MetS (DM+, HTN-), (3) MetS+ (DM-, HTN+), (4) MetS+ (DM+, HTN+) and (5) MetS+ (DM-, HTN-). At baseline, the mean age of the participants was 39.8± 13.3 years; 4996 (55.6%) were females. CKD was developed in 2038 (22.7%) subjects during 18 years of follow-up, of whom 1107 had MetS. After adjusting for the confounding variables, MetS (DM+, HTN+) subgroup had the highest risk of CKD (HR=1.51, 95% CI=1.32-1.71). MetS subjects with five components had a higher incidence rate of CKD (HR=1.43, 95% CI=1.22-1.68). There was no association between high waist circumference (WC) (HR=1.08, 95% CI=0.99-1.19) and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) (HR=1.07, 95% CI=0.98-1.18) with CKD. CKD significantly develops in patients with MetS. Metabolic syndrome was associated with the development of chronic kidney disease incidence. Hypertension, diabetes, and age were strong indicators, while abdominal obesity and reduced HDL were not associated with the incidence of CKD.

Consumption of ultraprocessed food and development of chronic kidney disease: the Tianjin Chronic Low-Grade Systemic Inflammation and Health and UK Biobank Cohort Studies

BackgroundMany ultraprocessed food (UPF)-derived by-products may play a role in the development of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Although several studies have assessed the association of UPFs with kidney function decline or CKD in various countries, no evidence has been shown in China and the United Kingdom. ObjectivesThis study aims to evaluate the association between UPF consumption and risk of CKD in 2 large cohort studies from China and the United Kingdom. MethodsIn total, 23,775 and 102,332 participants without baseline CKD were enrolled in the Tianjin Chronic Low-Grade Systemic Inflammation and Health (TCLSIH) and UK Biobank cohort studies, respectively. Information on UPF consumption was obtained from a validated food frequency questionnaire in the TCLSIH and 24-h dietary recalls in the UK Biobank cohort. CKD was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate of <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, albumin-to-creatinine ratio ≥30 mg/g, or as having a clinical diagnosis of CKD in both cohorts. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the association between UPF consumption and the risk of CKD. ResultsAfter a median follow-up of 4.0 and 10.1 y, the incidence rates of CKD were around 1.1% and 1.7% in the TCLSIH and UK Biobank cohorts, respectively. The multivariable hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] of CKD across increasing quartiles (quartiles 1–4) of UPF consumption were 1 (reference), 1.24 (0.89, 1.72), 1.30 (0.91, 1.87), and 1.58 (1.07, 2.34) (P for trend = 0.02) in the TCLSIH cohort and 1 (reference), 1.14 (1.00, 1.31), 1.16 (1.01, 1.33), and 1.25 (1.09, 1.43) (P for trend < 0.01) in the UK Biobank cohort, respectively. ConclusionsOur finding indicated that higher UPF consumption is associated with a higher risk of CKD. Moreover, restricting UPF consumption may potentially benefit the prevention of CKD. Further clinical trials are required to clarify the causality.This trial was registered at UMIN Clinical Trials Registry as UMIN000027174 (https://upload.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000031137).

High-Fat Dairy Products May Decrease the Risk of Chronic Kidney Disease Incidence: A Long-Term Prospective Cohort Study

The association between consumption of dairy products and risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is under debate. We aimed to determine the potential effects of total and subtypes of dairy intake on the occurrence of CKD. This study was conducted within the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) on 2416 CKD-free adults. At baseline, consumption of dairy products was estimated using a validated 168-items semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of CKD were calculated in tertile categories of dairy products. Also, the CKD risk was estimated with multivariable Cox regression to substitute total dairy with other dietary protein sources. During 8.4years of follow-up, the incidence rate of CKD was 21%. The participants' mean (±SD) age was 38 (±13) years and 46% were men. Dietary intakes of total dairy, low-fat dairy, and fermented dairy were not associated with CKD risk. There were significant lower risks of CKD in the highest compared to the lowest tertiles of high-fat dairy (HR=0.76, 95% CI=0.60-0.95) and high-fat milk (HR=0.75, 95% CI=0.59-0.96). However, no significant associations were found between other categories of dairy products and CKD incidence. Substitutions of total dairy with other dietary protein sources were not associated with CKD risk. In this study, higher intakes of high-fat dairy and high-fat milk were associated with lower risks of CKD. No significant associations were found between other dairy products and CKD. More prospective and clinical trials are needed to clarify the issue.

Long-Term Outcome of Leptospirosis Infection with Acute Kidney Injury.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with long-term mortality and morbidity outcomes. Severe leptospirosis usually results in AKI and multiple organ failure, but is associated with favorable short-term outcomes, if treatment is initiated early. However, information on long-term outcomes after leptospirosis-associated AKI is limited. The effects of leptospirosis on resulting chronic kidney disease (CKD), as well as mortality, were evaluated in this study. We studied 2145 patients with leptospirosis from the National Health Insurance Research Database over an 8-year follow-up period. Patient demographics and characteristics were analyzed for AKI and dialysis. The risk factors for renal outcomes were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression. In total, 443 (20.6%) patients had AKI. Among them, 77 (3.6%) patients received replacement therapy (AKI-RRT group). Long-term mortality was higher in the AKI-RRT group than in the AKI group and non-AKI group, based on a multivariate logistic regression model. Similarly, the incidence rate of CKD was highest in the AKI-RRT group, followed by the AKI and non-AKI groups. Leptospirosis, complicated with AKI, may play a critical role in the long-term outcomes, resulting in CKD. The severity of AKI determines the incidence of CKD. Additional prospective investigations for the early detection of AKI in leptospirosis are warranted.

Multi-pollutant air pollution and renal health in Asian children and adolescents: An 18-year longitudinal study

BackgroundFew studies have examined the effects of multi-pollutant air pollution on renal health, especially in children and adolescents. This study investigated the association between long-term ambient air pollution exposure and renal health in Asian children and adolescents. MethodsThis study included 10,942 children and adolescents from Taiwan and Hong Kong between 2000 and 2017. PM2.5, NO2 and O3 concentrations were estimated using satellite-based spatiotemporal regression models. Two-year average concentrations, those of the year of visit and the preceding year, were used. Linear mixed models were used to examine the association between air pollution and yearly changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Cox regression models with time-dependent covariates were used to examine the association between air pollution and the development of chronic kidney disease (CKD). ResultsMedian age of the participants was 19 years (range: 2–25). The overall average concentration of PM2.5, NO2 and O3 was 26.7 μg/m3, 44.1 μg/m3 and 51.1 μg/m3, respectively. The mean yearly change in eGFR was 0.37 μL/min/1.73 m2 and the incidence rate of CKD was 6.8 per 1,000 person-years. In single-pollutant models, each 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with a 0.45 μL/min/1.73 m2 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.28–0.63] reduction in the yearly increase in eGFR and 53% [hazard ratio (HR): 1.53 (95%CI: 1.07–2.2)] greater risk of incident CKD. Each 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2 was associated with a 7% [HR (95%CI): 1.07 (1.00–1.15)] higher risk of incident CKD, while an equivalent increase in O3 was associated with a 19% [HR (95%CI): 0.81 (0.67–0.98)] lower risk. ConclusionsLong-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 and NO2 was associated with a slower growth of eGFR and a higher risk of incident CKD in children and adolescents. Our findings suggest that air pollution control in early life is imperative to improve lifelong renal health and alleviate the CKD burden.

Chronic kidney disease begets heart failure and vice versa; temporal associations between heart failure events in relation to incident chronic kidney disease

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background Diabetes, chronic kidney disease (CKD) and heart failure (HF) are fast-growing causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Diabetes is an optimal model to study the inter-play of cardiovascular disease and renal disease. Purpose To investigate the association of CKD with HF and its prognosis in a large, population-based cohort of diabetes, in which incident CKD and HF events were ascertained longitudinally. Methods A population-based cohort of patients aged ≥18 years with diabetes, but without CKD, HF or acute kidney injury at baseline was identified from the previously validated territory-wide Clinical Data Analysis Reporting System between 2000 and 2015. Patients were followed up through December 31,2020 for incident CKD and/or HF or all-cause mortality. Multi-state modelling was used to examine the association of the subgroups (with/without CKD or HF). Results Among 294,413 patients (mean age: 65 ± 14 years; 49.5% women), new-onset CKD occurred in 51,583, in whom one-fifth (21.3%) had HF. In contrast, among 28,335 patients with new-onset HF, nearly two-fifth (38.7%) had CKD (Figure 1A). Median duration from baseline to incident CKD was shorter than incident HF [8.27 (4.69-11.97) years vs. 8.76 (5.28-12.37) years, p &amp;lt;0.001]. However, median duration for incident event of HF after CKD diagnosis was 2.15 (0.83-4.50) years and 1.73 (0.62-3.87) years for incident CKD after HF diagnosis. The incidence rate of CKD and HF was 20.39 per 1000 person-years and 10.61 per 1000 person-years, respectively. Presence of CKD was associated with incident HF (odds ratios [OR] 1.27 [95%CI 1.21-1.33]), and HF with incident CKD (OR 1.26 [95%CI 1.18-1.33]). The presence of both CKD and HF (regardless of which comes first) portends higher risk (6 to 8-fold hazards) of all-cause mortality than neither condition (Figure 1B). Conclusions Incident HF occurs in one-fifth of patients with new-onset CKD, and CKD occurs in about 40% with new-onset HF. CKD seems to precede HF. More research on the inter-play of these dual conditions is warranted in view of the high mortality risk. Abstract Figure.