Incidence Of Atrial Fibrillation Flutter Research Articles

Artificial Intelligence Enabled ECG Interpretation Informs Outcomes after Autologous Transplantation for Multiple Myeloma

High dose chemotherapy followed by autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (auto HCT) is a standard therapy for patients with plasma cell disorders (PCD). A barrier to improving candidate selection for auto HCT is appraisal of risk for transplant related complications. Electrocardiography (ECG) is a standard pre-HCT test to evaluate the potential for arrhythmia and structural heart disease. We hypothesized that an artificial intelligence (AI) based interpretation of ECG waveform data (AI-ECG) could enhance risk prediction for cardiac-specific and other outcomes following auto HCT for patients with PCD. To test this hypothesis, we used several AI-ECG tools developed using a deep-learning based approach that were trained to predict comorbidity (Attia et al, Lancet 2019 & Grogan et al, Mayo Clin Proc 2021). Model outputs include a scaled prediction value indicating increasing risk for atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF), reduced ejection fraction (EF), or cardiac amyloidosis. We evaluated this tool in 9,225 ECGs obtained from 849 patients (median 6 ECGs/patient, inter-quartile range: 3-12) who underwent first or subsequent auto HCT at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center between 2016-2022 and who had a diagnosis of multiple myeloma (N = 810), amyloidosis (N = 37), or other PCD (N = 2). The endpoints were to determine whether baseline AI-ECG prediction of AF risk correlated with peri-transplant AF events, and to explore whether model outputs correlated with survival and other cardiac clinical outcomes. The mean age of patients was 61.0 years (range 23.7 - 81.2) and median follow up was 2.7 years post auto HCT. Contributing cardiovascular risk factors included a prior history of AF (N = 101, 11.9%), coronary or cerebrovascular disease (N = 95, 11.2%), and diabetes mellitus (N = 98, 11.5%). Reduced dose melphalan (< 200 mg/m 2) was administered in 26%. The HCT-comorbidity index (HCT-CI) was high risk (≥3) in 52.7%. The one-year overall survival and progression-free survival in the whole cohort was 94% (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 92 - 95%) and 86% (84 - 89%), respectively. Among patients not in AF at pre HCT evaluation, the 90-day cumulative incidence of AF was 5.6% (4.2 - 7.3%). In univariable competing risk regression, baseline pre HCT AI-ECG appraisal of AF risk was strongly correlated with incidence AF in patients who were in sinus rhythm before HCT (hazard ratio (HR): 25.1, 95% CI: 11.7 - 53.7, p < 0.001). In a multivariable model adjusting for patient age and HCT-CI, AI-ECG AF predicted risk remained associated with incidence of post HCT AF (HR: 13.4, 95% CI: 5.9 - 30.4, p < 0.001). Considering a decision threshold identified during original model training, AI-ECG predicted AF events with an accuracy of 75% (Mcnemar's p < 2 x 10 -16). The precision, recall, and F1-score were 0.94, 0.77, and 0.85, respectively. AI-ECG predicted age correlated highly with actual patient age (Spearman rho = 0.59, p < 2 x 10 -16). Amyloid risk scores were highly correlated with a known clinical history of amyloidosis (median 0.45 versus 0.05, Wilcoxon rank-sum p < 0.001). Patients with EF < 50% had greater prediction scores for cardiomyopathy compared to patients with normal EF (median 0.23 versus 0.01, Wilcoxon rank-sum p <0.001). In univariable analysis, increasing AI-ECG predicted age (HR 1.02, CI: 1.003 - 1.04, p = 0.02) and predicted AF risk score (HR: 3.2, CI: 1.4 - 7.2, p = 0.006) were associated with risk for death, whereas predicted amyloid score and predicted low EF were not associated with decreased survival. In multivariable analysis of all patients that considered patient age, hematopoietic comorbidity index, and remission status at HCT, increasing predicted AF score trended towards association with increased risk for death (HR: 2.3, 95%CI: 1.0 - 5.5, p = 0.059). Predicted AF score correlated highly with the HCT-CI and patient age. Finally, we examined whether risk prediction for low EF correlated with peri-HCT fluid overload (FO) defined by absolute weight gain. The incidence of ≥ 10% weight gain (grade 2 FO) and ≥ 20% weight gain (grade 3 FO) at 180 days post HCT was 7.4% (95% CI: 5.8%, 9.3%) and 1.0% (95% CI: 0.5%, 1.8%), respectively. Predicted low EF was not associated with development of either grade 2 or grade 3 FO in this population. In summary, AI-ECG predicts episodes of AF in patients undergoing auto HCT for PCD and may augment transplant risk appraisal when considered in conjunction with other measures of comorbidity.

The Impact of Angiotensin Receptor-Neprilysin Inhibitors on Arrhythmias in Patients with Heart Failure: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Angiotensin receptor–neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI) use has become increasingly popular. Current guidelines recommend using ARNI therapy for heart failure with reduced (HFrEF) and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). As therapies become more widely available, heart failure-associated burdens such as ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death (SCD) will become increasingly prevalent. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the impact of ARNI therapy on HFrEF and HFpEF pertaining to arrhythmogenesis and SCD. We performed a search of MEDLINE (PubMed), the Cochrane Library, and ClinicalTrials.gov for relevant studies. The odds ratios (ORs) of SCD, ventricular tachycardia (VT), ventricular fibrillation (VF), atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF), supraventricular tachycardia (SVT), and implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) shocks were calculated. A total of 10 studies, including 6 randomized controlled trials and 4 observational studies, were included in the analysis. A total of 18,548 patients from all studies were included, with 9,328 patients in the ARNI arm and 9,220 patients in the angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI)/angiotensin II receptor blocker (ARB) arm, with a median follow-up time of 15 months. There was a significant reduction in the composite outcomes of SCD and ventricular arrhythmias in patients treated with ARNIs compared to those treated with ACEIs/ARBs (OR, 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.54–0.93; P = .01; I2 = 17%; P = .29). ARNI therapy was also associated with a significant reduction in ICD shocks. There was no significant reduction in the VT, VF, AF, or SVT incidence rate in the ARNI group compared to the ACEI/ARB group. In conclusion, the use of ARNIs confers a reduction in composite outcomes of SCD and ventricular arrhythmias among patients with heart failure. These outcomes were mainly driven by SCD reduction in patients treated with ARNIs.

Association Between the Frailty and New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation/Flutter Among Elderly Hypertensive Patients

BackgroundFrailty was found to be common in patients with atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF), but there was still a lack of evidence regarding the relationship between frailty and new-onset AF.MethodsWe performed a post hoc analysis of data from the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT). In addition, we evaluated the relationship between baseline frailty status and new-onset AF in older adult patients with hypertension.ResultsIn total, 7,316 participants were included in our analysis, and a total of 115 new-onset AF occurred during an average of 3.54 years of follow-up. Using SPRINT frailty index criteria, 1,535 fit, 4,041 less fit, and 1,740 frailty were enrolled. Compared with other groups, the incidence of new-onset AF in the frailty group was significantly higher. We constructed three Cox models to assess the relationship between the frailty status (fit group as reference) and new-onset AF. Participants with frailty had a significantly higher risk of new-onset AF compared with the fit group in all the models we used. We combined the fit group and the less fit group into a no frailty group to assess the impact of frailty on new-onset AF in various subgroups. After full adjustment (Model 3), frailty remained associated with the increased risk of new-onset AF compared with the no frailty group [hazard ratio [HR] = 2.09, 95% CI:(1.41, 3.09), p < 0.001]. Additionally, we examined the frailty index as continuous variable to assess the relationship between the frailty index and new-onset AF. The smooth curve showed that log HR appeared to increase linearly. And there was a significant interaction between baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP) categories and frailty on the risk of new-onset AF (p for interaction = 0.030).ConclusionThis study found baseline frailty status was a strong independent risk factor for new-onset AF among older adult patients with hypertension. Screening for frailty should be considered in older adult patients with hypertension to prevent new-onset AF.

SODIUM-GLUCOSE CO-TRANSPORTER INHIBITORS AND ATRIAL FIBRILLATION: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW AND META-ANALYSIS OF RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIALS

<h3>BACKGROUND</h3> Sodium-glucose co-transporter (SGLT) inhibitors reduce heart failure (HF) hospitalization and cardiovascular death in several populations, including patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, renal impairment, HF and cardiovascular disease. The efficacy of SGLT inhibitors in patients with atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) and their effect on incidence or recurrence of AF has yet to be systematically assessed. Our objectives were to determine whether sodium-glucose co-transporter (SGLT) inhibitors reduce atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) and whether a history of AF modifies the effect of SGLT inhibitors on the composite of heart failure hospitalization or cardiovascular death. <h3>METHODS AND RESULTS</h3> We searched MEDLINE, Embase and CENTRAL to March 2021. Pairs of reviewers identified randomized controlled trials that compared an SGLT inhibitor to placebo or no therapy. The primary outcome was the rate of AF reported as an adverse event. The secondary outcome was a composite of hospitalization/urgent visit for HF or cardiovascular death, stratified by history of AF at baseline. We assessed risk of bias using the Cochrane tool and the overall quality of evidence using GRADE. Thirty eligible trials reported on AF events (71,553 participants, mean age 62 years, 35.6% women). Moderate quality evidence supported a lower risk of AF events with SGLT inhibitors (1.0% versus 1.4%; risk ratio 0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.68-0.89; I2=0%). Three trials reported on the secondary composite outcome (18,826 participants, mean age 66 years, 38.1% women). In patients with a history of AF, SGLT inhibitors resulted in a lower risk in the composite of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death (hazard ratio [HR] 0.70; 95% CI 0.57-0.85; I2=0%) – similar to the effect estimate for patients without AF (HR 0.70; 95% CI 0.61-0.79; I2=0%), p-value for interaction: 1.00. <h3>CONCLUSION</h3> SGLT inhibitors may reduce the incidence or recurrence of AF. These drugs reduce a composite of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death, both in patients with and without AF.

Prevalence/incidence of atrial fibrillation based on integrated medical/pharmacy claims, and association with co-morbidity profiles/multi-morbidity in a large US adult cohort.

Identification of published data on prevalent/incidence of atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) often relies on inpatient/outpatient claims, without consideration to other types of healthcare services and pharmacy claims. Accurate, population-level data that can enable the ongoing monitoring of AF epidemiology, quality of care at affordable cost, and complications are needed. We hypothesised that prevalent/incidence data would vary via the use of integrated medical/pharmacy claims, and associated comorbidities would vary accordingly. To examine AF prevalence/incidence and associated individual comorbidity and multi-morbidity profiles for a large US adult cohort spanning across a wide age range for both males/females based on both integrated criteria from both medical/pharmacy claims. We studied a population of 8343992 persons across many geographical areas in the US continent from 1 January/2016 to 31 October 2019. The prevalence and incidence of AF were comparatively analysed for different healthcare parameters (eg, emergency room visit, anticoagulant medication, heart rhythm control medication) and for integrated criteria based on medical/pharmacy claims. Based on integrated medical and pharmacy claims, AF prevalence was 12.7% in the elderly population (≥65years) and 0.9% in the younger population (<65years). These prevalence rates are different from estimates provided by the US CDC for those aged ≥65years (9%) and age <65years (2%); thus, the prevalence is under-estimated in the elderly population and over-estimated in the younger population. The incidence ratios for elderly females relative to younger females was 15.07 (95%CI 14.47-15.70), a value that is about 50% higher than for elderly males (10.57 (95%CI 10.24-10.92)). Comorbidity risk profile for AF identified on the basis of medical and pharmacy criteria varied by age and gender. The proportion with multi-morbidity (defined as ≥2 long term comorbidities) was 10%-12%. Continued reliance only on outpatient and inpatient claims greatly underestimates AF prevalence and incidence in the general population by over 100%. Multi-morbidity is common amongst AF patients, affecting approximately 1 in 10 patients. AF patients with four or more co-morbidities captured 20%-40% of the AF cohorts depending on age groups and prevalent or incident cases.

Incidence and Implications of Atrial Fibrillation/Flutter in Hypertension: Insights From the SPRINT Trial.

We evaluated the impact of intensive blood pressure control on the incidence of new-onset atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) and the prognostic implications of preexisting and new-onset AF in SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) participants. New-onset AF was defined as occurrence of AF in 12-lead electrocardiograms after randomization in participants free of AF at baseline. Poisson regression modeling was used to calculate incident rates of new-onset AF. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the risk of adverse cardiovascular events (composite of myocardial infarction, non-myocardial infarction acute coronary syndrome, stroke, heart failure, or cardiovascular death). In 9327 participants, 8.45% had preexisting AF, and 1.65% had new-onset AF. The incidence of new-onset AF was 4.53 per 1000-person years, with similar rates in the standard and intensive treatment arms (4.95 versus 4.11 per 1000-person years; adjusted P=0.14). Participants with preexisting AF (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.46-2.31]; P<0.001) and new-onset AF (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.45 [95% CI, 1.58-3.80]; P<0.001) had a greater risk for development of adverse cardiovascular events compared with those with no AF. Participants with preexisting AF who achieved blood pressure <120/80 mm Hg at 3 months continued have a poor prognosis (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.88 [95% CI, 1.32-2.70]; P=0.001) compared with those with no AF. Intensive blood pressure control does not diminish the incidence of new-onset AF in an older, high-risk, nondiabetic population. Both preexisting and new-onset AF have adverse prognostic implications. In participants with preexisting AF, residual cardiovascular risk is evident even with on-treatment blood pressure <120/80 mm Hg. Registration- URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01206062.

Evaluation of the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation/Flutter Among Patients Initiating Ibrutinib

INTRODUCTION:Ibrutinib is a Bruton's tyrosine kinase inhibitor that is used to treat chronic lymphocytic leukemia and other hematologic malignancies. Atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) is emerging as an adverse effect of ibrutinib therapy. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the incidence of new AF in a real-world sample of patients initiating ibrutinib and exploring potential risk factors of AF in this population.METHODS:A retrospective cohort study of patients (age>=18) initiating ibrutinib between 01 Nov 2013 and 30 Sep 2017 was conducted using four US administrative claims databases. The databases used were MarketScan - Commercial and Medicare Supplemental Database, Optum Clinformatics Data Mart, PharmetricsPlus Adjudicated Claims Database and Humana. Patient cohorts were identified independently from each of the databases and were combined for pooled analyses after ensuring a minimum patient overlap of less than 5% among databases. The date of first prescription of ibrutinib was considered as the index date. Patients were followed from the index date to the end of index ibrutinib therapy (ibrutinib discontinuation date, follow-up end, or study end, whichever was earliest) to identify the diagnosis of new AF. Patients with an AF diagnosis prior to the index date were excluded. Baseline characteristics (including demographics, comorbidities, type of cancer and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score) were evaluated. Incident rates were calculated as number of AF events per 100 person-years and were stratified by age and gender. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios and assess potential risk factors for AF among patients receiving ibrutinib.RESULTS:The study examined outcomes in 7,276 patients treated with ibrutinib, including 4,650 (63.91%) males and 2,626 (36.09%) females, followed for a median duration of 161 days (~5.3 months). The overall incidence rate of AF was 12.5 per 100 person-years (Table 1). The median duration until AF diagnosis was 117 days (~4 months). Males were at higher risk of developing AF than females; a similar trend was observed in patients age >75 compared to younger patients. Ibrutinib patients with congestive heart failure (CHF), peripheral vascular disease (PVD) or a moderate CCI score (3-4) at baseline were at higher risk of developing AF.CONCLUSION:The incidence of AF in patients treated with ibrutinib is substantial. Older age, male gender, and baseline comorbidities (CHF and PVD) notably affect the risk of developing AF in these patients. AF should be considered when monitoring for adverse events in patients treated with ibrutinib. DisclosuresNohria:Takeda Oncology: Consultancy; Amgen: Research Funding. Rosenblatt:Bristol-Myers Squibb: Employment, Equity Ownership. Pan:Bristol-Myers Squibb: Employment, Equity Ownership. Sharma:Mu Sigma: Employment; Bristol-Myers Squibb: Consultancy.

Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With Recent Ischemic Stroke Versus Matched Controls.

Background and Purpose- It is unclear whether atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) newly diagnosed after ischemic stroke represents a preexisting risk factor that led to stroke, an arrhythmia triggered by poststroke autonomic dysfunction, or an incidental finding. Methods- We compared AF incidence after hospitalizations for ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and nonstroke conditions using inpatient and outpatient claims between 2008 and 2015 from a nationally representative 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries. We used validated International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification ( ICD-9-CM) codes to identify AF-free patients hospitalized with ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke and matched them in a 1:1 ratio by age, sex, race, calendar year, vascular risk factors, and Charlson comorbidities. We then matched the combined stroke cohort in a 1:1 ratio to patients hospitalized for nonstroke diagnoses. We used survival statistics and Cox regression to compare postdischarge AF incidence among groups. Results- We matched 2580 patients with ischemic stroke, 2580 with hemorrhagic stroke, and 5160 patients with other conditions. The annual postdischarge AF incidence was 3.4% (95% CI, 3.1%-3.7%) after ischemic stroke, 2.2% (95% CI, 1.9%-2.4%) after hemorrhagic stroke, and 2.9% (95% CI, 2.6%-3.1%) after nonstroke hospitalization. Ischemic stroke was associated with a somewhat higher risk of AF than hemorrhagic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.3-1.8) or nonstroke conditions (hazard ratio, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.3). The latter association attenuated in sensitivity analyses limiting the outcome to AF diagnoses made by cardiologists (hazard ratio, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.8-1.5) or limiting the outcome to a minimum of 2 AF claims on separate dates (hazard ratio, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.0-1.5; P=0.09). Conclusions- New diagnoses of AF were more common after hospitalization for ischemic stroke than after hospitalization for hemorrhagic stroke or nonstroke conditions, but all hospitalized patients had a substantial incidence of new AF diagnoses after discharge and differences were attenuated when using more stringent definitions.

Longitudinal relationships of periodic limb movements during sleep and incident atrial fibrillation

ObjectivesThis study aimed to examine relationship between periodic limb movements during sleep (PLMS) and incident atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF). MethodsProspective multicenter cohort (n = 2273: adjudicated AF group; n = 843: self-reported AF group) of community-dwelling men without prevalent AF were followed for an average of 8.3 years (adjudicated) and 6.5 years (self-reported). PLMS index (PLMI, <5 (ref), ≥5 to <30, ≥30) and PLM arousal index (PLMAI, <1 (ref), ≥1 to <5, ≥5) were measured by polysomnography. Incident adjudicated and self-reported AF were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression, respectively, and adjusted for age, clinic, race, body mass index (BMI), alcohol use, cholesterol level, cardiac medications, pacemaker, apnea–hypopnea index, renal function, and cardiac risk. The interaction of age and PLMS was examined. ResultsIn this primarily Caucasian (89.8%) cohort of older men (mean age 76.1 ± 5.5 years) with BMI of 27.2 ± 3.7, there were 261 cases (11.5%) of adjudicated and 85 cases (10.1%) of self-reported incident AF. In the overall cohort, PLMI and PLMAI were not associated with adjudicated or self-reported AF. There was some evidence of an interaction of age and PLMI (p = 0.08, adjudicated AF) and PLMAI (p ≤ 0.06, both outcomes). Among men aged ≥76 years, the highest PLMI tertile was at increased risk of adjudicated AF (≥30 vs. <5; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.63, 1.01–2.63) and the middle PLMAI tertile predicted increased risk of both outcomes (1 to <5 vs. <1; adjudicated, HR = 1.65, 1.05–2.58; self-reported HR = 5.76, 1.76–18.84). No such associations were found in men aged <76 years. ConclusionsAlthough PLMS do not predict AF incidence in the overall cohort, the findings suggest PLMS increases incident AF risk in the older subgroup.

Risk of arrhythmias in 52 755 long-distance cross-country skiers: a cohort study

We aimed to investigate the association of number of completed races and finishing time with risk of arrhythmias among participants of Vasaloppet, a 90 km cross-country skiing event. All the participants without cardiovascular disease who completed Vasaloppet during 1989-98 were followed through national registries until December 2005. Primary outcome was hospitalization for any arrhythmia and secondary outcomes were atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF), bradyarrhythmias, other supraventricular tachycardias (SVT), and ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation/cardiac arrest (VT/VF/CA). Among 52 755 participants, 919 experienced arrhythmia during follow-up. Adjusting for age, education, and occupational status, those who completed the highest number of races during the period had higher risk of any arrhythmias [hazard ratio (HR)1.30; 95% CI 1.08-1.58; for ≥5 vs. 1 completed race], AF (HR 1.29; 95% CI 1.04-1.61), and bradyarrhythmias (HR 2.10; 95% CI 1.28-3.47). Those who had the fastest relative finishing time also had higher risk of any arrhythmias (HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.04-1.62; for 100-160% vs. >240% of winning time), AF (1.20; 95% CI 0.93-1.55), and bradyarrhythmias (HR 1.85; 95% CI 0.97-3.54). SVT or VT/VF/CA was not associated with finishing time or number of completed races. Among male participants of a 90 km cross-country skiing event, a faster finishing time and a high number of completed races were associated with higher risk of arrhythmias. This was mainly driven by a higher incidence of AF and bradyarrhythmias. No association with SVT or VT/VF/CA was found.

Prevention of Post–Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting (CABG) Atrial Fibrillation: Efficacy of Prophylactic Beta‐Blockers in the Modern Era

Atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) is a common complication of open heart surgery and ACC/AHA guidelines strongly recommend the use of prophylactic beta-blockers (BB) for its prevention. Several recent studies, however, have failed to show the desired protective effects of BB against post-coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) AF. As the protocols of CABG, medical management of CAD (coronary artery disease) and demographic features of the patients undergoing open heart surgery have evolved significantly over the last two decades, we decided to perform a review of evidence from latest randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to confirm the efficacy of prophylactic BB. We searched for RCTs comparing the efficacy of prophylactic BB versus placebo/control against post-CABG AF. We limited our search to 1995 till present to reflect ongoing advancements in the protocols of CABG and the medical management of CAD. Initially, 34 trials were selected; however after certain exclusions only 10 RCTs were included in the final analysis. Prophylactic BB decreased the incidence of post-CABG AF from 32.8% in the control group to 20% in the prophylactic group with risk ratio (RR) of 0.50 with 95% CI of 0.36-0.69, P value < 0.001. In a subgroup analysis, carvedilol appears to be superior to metoprolol for the prevention of postoperative AF. Despite several limitations, this analysis confirms the efficacy of prophylactic BB against post-CABG AF in this era. We recommend continuing perioperative BB in the open heart surgery patients in the absence of contraindications.

Trends in the Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in Older Patients Initiating Dialysis in the United States

One sixth of US dialysis patients 65 years of age have been diagnosed with atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF). Little is known, however, about the incidence of AF in this population. We identified 258 605 older patients (≥67 years of age) with fee-for-service Medicare initiating dialysis in 1995 to 2007, who had not been diagnosed with AF within the previous 2 years. Patients were followed for newly diagnosed AF. Multivariable proportional hazard regression was used to examine temporal trends and associations of race and ethnicity with incident AF. We also studied temporal trends in the mortality and risk of ischemic stroke after new AF. Over 514 395 person-years of follow-up, 76 252 patients experienced incident AF for a crude AF incidence rate of 148/1000 person-years. Incidence of AF increased by 11% (95% confidence interval, 5-16) from 1995 to 2007. Compared with non-Hispanic whites, blacks (-30%), Asians (-19%), Native Americans (-42%), and Hispanics (-29%) all had lower rates of incident AF. Mortality after incident AF decreased by 22% from 1995 to 2008. Even more pronounced reductions were seen for incident ischemic stroke during these years. The incidence of AF is high in older patients initiating dialysis in the United States and has been increasing over the 13 years of study. Mortality declined during that time but remained >50% during the first year after newly diagnosed AF. Because data on warfarin use were not available, we were unable to study whether trends toward better outcomes could be explained by higher rates of oral anticoagulation.

The incidence and risk factors for new onset atrial fibrillation in the PROSPER study

Atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) is the most common arrhythmia in older people. It associates with reduced exercise capacity, increased risk of stroke, and mortality. We aimed to determine retrospectively whether pravastatin reduces the incidence of AF and whether any electrocardiographic measures or clinical conditions might be risk factors for its development. The PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) was a randomized, double-blind controlled trial that recruited 5804 individuals aged 70-82 years with a history of, or risk factors for, vascular disease. A total of 2891 were allocated to pravastatin and 2913 to placebo; mean follow-up was 3.2 years. Electrocardiograms (ECGs), which were recorded at baseline, annually thereafter, and at run-out, were processed by computer and reviewed manually. In all, 264 of 2912 (9.1%) of the placebo group and 283 of 2888 (9.8%) of the pravastatin-treated group developed AF [hazard ratio 1.08 (0.92,1.28), P= 0.35)]. Multivariate analysis showed that PR and QTc intervals, age, left ventricular hypertrophy, and ST-T abnormalities were related to development of AF after adjustment for many variables including alcohol consumption, which itself was univariately predictive of developing AF. Previous myocardial infarction on the ECG was not a risk factor. A history of vascular disease was strongly linked with developing AF but not diabetes and hypertension. Pravastatin does not reduce the incidence of AF in older people at risk of vascular disease, at least in the short-medium term. Risk factors for AF include older age, prolongation of PR or QTc intervals, left ventricular hypertrophy, and ST-T abnormalities on the ECG.

Effect of Cardiac Resynchronization on the Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With Severe Heart Failure

Atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) and heart failure often coexist; however, the effect of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) on the incidence of AF and on the outcome of patients with new-onset AF remains undefined. In the CArdiac REsynchronisation in Heart Failure (CARE-HF) trial, 813 patients with moderate or severe heart failure were randomly assigned to pharmacological therapy alone or with the addition of CRT. The incidence of AF was assessed by adverse event reporting and by ECGs during follow-up, and the impact of new-onset AF on the outcome and efficacy of CRT was evaluated. By the end of the study (mean duration of follow-up 29.4 months), AF had been documented in 66 patients in the CRT group compared with 58 who received medical therapy only (16.1% versus 14.4%; hazard ratio 1.05; 95% confidence interval, 0.73 to 1.50; P=0.79). There was no difference in the time until first onset of AF between groups. Mortality was higher in patients who developed AF, but AF was not a predictor in the multivariable model (hazard ratio 1.17; 95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.67; P=0.37). In patients with new-onset AF, CRT significantly reduced the risk for all-cause mortality and all other predefined end points and improved ejection fraction and symptoms (no interaction between AF and CRT; all P>0.2). Although CRT did not reduce the incidence of AF, CRT improved the outcome regardless of whether AF developed.

Statin Use Is Associated With a Reduction in Atrial Fibrillation After Noncardiac Thoracic Surgery Independent of C-Reactive Protein

The level of C-reactive protein (CRP) has been shown to be elevated in patients with atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) unrelated to surgery, and statins are known to lower the CRP level. To determine whether an elevated CRP level predisposes the patient to postoperative AF and whether statin use is associated with a reduced AF incidence, we studied a consecutive group of patients who were at risk for AF after undergoing thoracic surgery (age, > or = 60 years). A prospective study in a tertiary care cancer center of 131 patients (mean [+/- SD] age, 73 +/- 6 years) who had undergone major lung or esophageal resection. High-sensitivity CRP and interleukin (IL)-6 levels were measured before surgery, on arrival at the postanesthesia care unit, and on the first morning after surgery. Continuous telemetry was used for 72 to 96 h to detect AF. AF occurred in 38 of 131 patients (29%) at a median time after surgery of 3 days. Although CRP and IL-6 levels increased significantly (p < 0.001) in response to surgery, patients with or without AF did not differ in perioperative values. In a stepwise logistic regression, statin use was associated with a threefold decrease in the odds of developing AF (odds ratio [OR], 0.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.08 to 0.82; p = 0.022) and a greater PR interval (OR, 1.11 per 5-ms increments; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.22; p = 0.027) predicted an increase in the risk of AF. The preoperative use of statins was associated with a protective effect against postoperative AF independent of CRP levels. In contrast to AF in the general population, early markers of inflammation did not predict the postoperative occurrence of AF.