Improved Risk Assessment Method Research Articles

Research on the Construction Method of Double Prevention Mechanism in Chinese Heating Enterprises Based on Bidirectional Dynamic Risk-Hidden Danger Transmission

The heating industries are extremely dispersed in China, and most heating enterprises are small in scale, poor in foundation, and chaotic in safety management. The construction method of the double prevention mechanism of heating enterprises in China was analyzed and studied based on the PDCA cycle model and the improved risk assessment method for operating conditions. The analytic hierarchy process was used to determine the weight of dangerous and harmful factors and corresponding control measures for an accident type. The concept of “failure frequency” was introduced, and the calculation method of accident probability (L) was modified so that the accurate hierarchical control and dynamic risk assessment of accident risks can be realized. At the same time, the failure of control measures is defined as “hidden danger” in this paper. Finally, the bidirectional dynamic transmission mechanism of hidden danger investigation and treatment and risk hierarchical control was established. The main problems existing in the construction of double prevention mechanism of heating enterprises in China were discussed and some countermeasures and suggestions were put forward. According to the above methods and steps, the double prevention mechanism of heating enterprises can be reasonably established. Thus, the risks can be effectively identified, the hidden dangers can be controlled, and the safety production of heating enterprises can be guaranteed.

Bibliometric analysis of fires on wildland-urban interfaces

Most wildland-urban interface (WUI) areas in the world will face severe wildfire risks due to climate warming and rapid urbanization. Mitigating the damage caused by WUI fires has become a worthy topic for fire researchers and managers. In recent years, WUI fires have occurred in China and caused significant property damage, and even threatened some communities. To understand the research status and promote WUI fire management in China, this paper collected all research articles published from 1991 to 2021 on the topic. We performed a bibliometric analysis for the year, author, institution, country, journal, and keywords. The results show that 717 research articles were published in the field of WUI fire management over this period. The annual number of published articles has exceeded 40 since 2013 and is expected to reach 80 in 2022. The United States has the most active research institutions and groups working in the field of WUI fire management, with 507 published articles over the past three decades, accounting for 70.7% of the total articles. Ninety percent of the top ten authors or institutions come from the United States. The International Journal of Wildland Fire, an important journal in the field of wildfire, has published 96 research articles on the topic over the same period, accounting for 13.4% of the total. Research focused on WUI fire occurrence and its influencing factors, fire behavior simulation, fire risk assessment, and fuel treatment. Future research on WUI fire management will explore the impacts of climate change on the WUI fire regime, improve risk assessment methods, and enhance fire mitigation strategies.

Research on construction method and information system of double prevention mechanism in iron mine

At present, there are many problems in the construction process of the double prevention mechanism in iron mine, such as unclear construction steps, disconnection of construction process, and deviation of construction priorities, et al. Based on the PDCA cycle mode and the improved risk assessment method for working conditions, the construction method of double prevention mechanism in iron mine is analyzed and studied. The yaahp meta-decision software (Analytic Hierarchy Process software) is used to determine the weight of hazardous factors and their corresponding control measures.The concept of “failure frequency” is put forward and the calculation method of accident probability (L) is modified to realize the accurate hierarchical control of accident risk; At the same time, the failure of control measures is defined as “hidden danger”, and then the transmission mechanism of hidden danger investigation and management and risk grading management and control is established.The “Information management system of double prevention mechanism in iron mine” is developed by adopting the B/S structure to realize the informatization of the double prevention mechanism construction. According to the above methods and steps, the double prevention system of iron mine can be reasonably established to effectively identify risks and control hidden dangers and provide favorable guarantee for the safe production of iron ore.

A systematic overview on the risk effects of psychosocial work characteristics on musculoskeletal disorders, absenteeism, and workplace accidents

The present article provides a systematic overview on the relationship between psychosocial work characteristics and musculoskeletal disorders, absenteeism, and workplace accidents. The study identified and reviewed the findings of 24 systematic reviews or meta-analysis and 6 longitudinal studies. Publications were systematically searched in several databases from 1966 to January 2021. To summarize the level of evidence, a best evidence synthesis was performed, and the quality of included studies was rated.High job demands, high job strain, high effort/reward-imbalance and low social support showed a strong evidence to increase the risk for musculoskeletal disorders. In addition to job demands and job strain, low perceived fairness proved to be a risk factor of absenteeism with strong evidence. Due to the small number of studies, no reliable evidence assessment for workplace accidents was possible. The summarized findings can improve risk assessment methods, by providing a systematic estimation of the potential risk severity of psychosocial work characteristics and assist practitioners in further developing the psychosocial risk assessment.

An improved risk assessment method based on a comprehensive weighting algorithm in railway signaling safety analysis

There remains a lack of applied research on risk assessment technology in the safety analysis of the railway signaling system, and the research method in the existing literature mostly is the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This paper synthetically analyzes and evaluates the merits and demerits of the traditional AHP, the Maximum Absolute Weighted Residual (MAWR), and the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM), finally proposes a comprehensive weighting algorithm organically combining above methods. This algorithm applies to the weighting process under different evaluation matrix conditions. It neutralizes the excessive deviation caused by the human factors in the subjective weighting method and the data factors in the objective weighting method, so it makes the weighting result more reasonable. In addition, based on the comprehensive weighting algorithm, three kinds of typical railway signaling equipment are selected as calculation cases, and the weighting results can be applied in calculating the equipment dangerous failure rate, assessing the equipment safety level, and other risk management processes. This algorithm has practical application value for the risk assessment of the railway signaling system and its apparatus.

CHA2DS2-VASc scores and Intermountain Mortality Risk Scores for the joint risk stratification of dementia among patients with atrial fibrillation

High CHA2DS2-VASc scores in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients are generally associated with increased risks of stroke and dementia. At lower CHA2DS2-VASc scores, there remains an unquantifiable cranial injury risk, necessitating an improved risk assessment method within these lower-risk groups. The purpose of this study was to determine whether sex-specific Intermountain Mortality Risk Scores (IMRS), a dynamic measures of systemic health that comprises commonly performed blood tests, can stratify dementia risk overall and among CHA2DS2-VASc score strata in AF patients. Female (n = 34,083) and male (n = 39,998) AF patients with no history of dementia were studied. CHA2DS2-VASc scores were assessed at the time of AF diagnosis and were stratified into scores of 0-1, 2, and ≥3. Within each CHA2DS2-VASc score stratum, patients were further stratified by IMRS categories of low, moderate, and high. Multivariable Cox hazard regression was used to determine dementia risk. High-risk IMRS patients were generally older and had higher rates of hypertension, diabetes, heart failure, and prior stroke. Higher CHA2DS2-VASc score strata (≥3 vs ≤1: women, hazard ratio [HR] 7.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.94-10.17, P<.001; men: HR 4.75, 95% CI 4.15-5.44, P < .001) and IMRS categories (high vs low: women, HR 3.09, 95% CI 2.71-3.51, P<.001; men, HR 2.70, 95% CI 2.39-3.06, P < .001) were predictive of dementia. When stratified by CHA2DS2-VASc scores, IMRS further identified risk in each stratum. Both CHA2DS2-VASc scores and IMRS were independently associated with dementia incidence among AF patients. IMRS further stratified dementia risk among CHA2DS2-VASc score strata, particularly among those with lower CHA2DS2-VASc scores.

Abstract 5316: DNA methylation index of lifetime estrogen exposure in breast cancer

Abstract Breast cancer is the most common female cancer worldwide and makes up 25% of all cancers diagnosed in women. There is a need for improved risk assessment methods to identify women at high risk before the disease develops. It is well established that estrogens are involved in estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancer carcinogenesis, however the mechanisms are not fully understood. We hypothesize that lifetime estrogen exposure accumulates changes in DNA methylation detectable in blood as a surrogate for other tissues. Here, we have identified a methylation signature of estrogen exposure measured in blood DNA that could improve risk assessment for breast cancer. Our Estimated Lifetime Estrogen Exposure (ELEE) model, taking into account reproductive time (age at menopause minus age at menarche), number of pregnancies and breastfeeding duration, shows a 5% increased risk of developing breast cancer per unit increase in ELEE (range 18 – 44) in the European Prospective into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Italy study cohort (30671 healthy controls, 1193 cases, age at diagnosis ≥ 50). An Epigenome-Wide Association Study (EWAS) of ELEE was conducted on 450K methylation data in EPIC-Italy (199 controls, 97 cases) and the Generations Study (GS) cohort (n=65 controls). For validation targeted bisulfite sequencing using the Fluidigm 48.48 Access Array was performed on independent DNA samples from the GS cohort (440 matched ER+ case-control pairs). The Methylation Index (MI) of ELEE was developed on 450K data using ridge regression and includes DNA methylation levels at selected CpG sites. DNA methylation levels at 694 CpG sites show significant (false discovery rate q &amp;lt; 0.05) association with ELEE in the EWAS and of these 42 CpG sites from the top-probes were selected for validation. The MI was developed on 28 CpG sites passing quality control and shows high correlation with ELEE in 450K training data (r=0.69) and significant association with breast cancer risk in EPIC-Italy with an OR of 1.38 per unit MI (range 24 – 43, 95% CI: 1.23 – 1.57, P=2.0E-07). Validation step is yet to be finalized; initial analysis on the first 318 case-control pairs suggests a modest but significant association with ER+ breast cancer risk (unadjusted OR=1.04 per unit MI, 95% CI: 1.00 – 1.07, P=0.030, MI range 20 – 53). In summary, we show that changes in DNA methylation following estrogen exposure are detectable in blood and we have developed a Methylation Index of ELEE that is significantly increased in breast cancer cases compared to controls in EPIC-Italy, and modestly increased in the GS validation cohort. This molecular measure of estrogen exposure could potentially improve risk assessment methods and be used to identify women at high risk of developing breast cancer. Citation Format: Annelie Johansson, Domenico Palli, Giovanna Masala, Sara Grioni, Claudia Agnoli, Rosario Tumino, Maria Concetta Giurdanella, Francesca Fasanelli, Carlotta Sacerdote, Salvatore Panico, Amalia Mattiello, Anthony Swerdlow, Minouk Schoemaker, Michael Jones, Nick Orr, Olivia Fletcher, Nichola Johnson, Katarzyna Tomczyk, Paolo Vineis, James M. Flanagan. DNA methylation index of lifetime estrogen exposure in breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2018; 2018 Apr 14-18; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 5316.

Analysis and Assessment of Operation Risk for Hybrid AC/DC Power System based on the Monte Carlo Method

Based on the Monte Carlo method, an improved risk assessment method for hybrid AC/DC power system with VSC station considering the operation status of generators, converter stations, AC lines and DC lines is proposed. According to the sequential AC/DC power flow algorithm, node voltage and line active power are solved, and then the operation risk indices of node voltage over-limit and line active power over-limit are calculated. Finally, an improved two-area IEEE RTS-96 system is taken as a case to analyze and assessment its operation risk. The results show that the proposed model and method can intuitively and directly reflect the weak nodes and weak lines of the system, which can provide some reference for the dispatching department.

The combined fatigue effects of sequential exposure to seated whole body vibration and physical, mental, or concurrent work demands.

Many occupations in agriculture, construction, transportation, and forestry are non-routine, involving non-cyclical tasks, both discretionary and non-discretionary work breaks, and a mix of work activities. Workers in these industries are exposed to seated whole body vibration (WBV) and tasks consisting of physical, mental, or a combination of demands. Risk assessment tools for non-routinized jobs have emerged but there remains a need to understand the combined effects of different work demands to improve risk assessment methods and ultimately inform ergonomists and workers on optimum work arrangement and scheduling strategies. The objective of this study was to investigate fatigue-related human responses of WBV sequentially combined with physical, mental, or concurrent physical and mental demands. Sixteen healthy participants performed four conditions on four separate days: (1) physically demanding work, (2) mentally demanding work, (3) concurrent work, and (4) control quiet sitting. For each condition, participants performed two 15-minute bouts of the experimental task, separated by 30-minutes of simulated WBV based on realistic all-terrain vehicle (ATV) riding data. A test battery of fatigue measures consisting of biomechanical, physiological, cognitive, and sensorimotor measurements were collected at four interval periods: pre-session, after the first bout of the experimental task and before WBV, after WBV and before the second bout of the experimental task, and post-session. Nine measures demonstrated statistically significant time effects during the control condition; 11, 7, and 12 measures were significant in the physical, mental, and concurrent conditions, respectively. Overall, the effects of seated WBV in combination with different tasks are not additive but possibly synergistic or antagonistic. There appears to be a beneficial effect of seated ATV operation as a means of increasing task variation; but since excessive WBV may independently pose a health risk in the longer-term, these beneficial results may not be sensible as a long-term solution.

Systematic comparison of study quality criteria

Approaches for the systematic review and evaluation of chemical toxicity are currently being reconsidered, with a specific focus on the evaluation of individual studies and their integration into the overall body of evidence. This renewed interest has arisen, in part, as a result of several prominent reviews of these approaches by special committees of the National Research Council (NRC), among others. We conducted a critical evaluation of several available frameworks for evaluating study quality. We assessed the criteria separately for human, animal, and in vitro studies as well as for systematic reviews. We then evaluated commonalities across disciplines. We also considered the potential implications of applying criteria frameworks and how they bear on fundamental risk assessment questions. We found that the available frameworks within each discipline differed in terms of their intended purpose and level of guidance for decision making. All the frameworks across disciplines shared common themes, however, including the adequate reporting of specific details of study conditions and design/protocol, selection and randomization of study groups (where applicable), outcome assessment methods and applicability (e.g., validity and reliability), avoidance of selective reporting, and the consideration of potential confounders or bias. We identified the most informative study quality considerations, which will enable researchers to implement more objective and standardized methods for evaluating studies and, ultimately, improve risk assessment methods.

An Improved Risk Assessment Method for SCADA Information Security

In this paper, we address information security risk analysis in SCADA systems and propose an improved security risk assessment method in the case of attacks on the SCADA information and communication infrastructure. The assumption is that intrusion prevention/detection systems are implemented as security mechanisms. The proposed method has been demonstrated on an example of the SCADA system in a hydropower plant. Cost-benefit analysis has been performed on the basis of the Return on Security Investment. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.eee.20.7.8027

An Improved Network Risk Evaluation Method Based on Markov Game

Network security risk assessment is an important means of acquiring and mastering the current and future state of network, which is of great significance to maintain the safe operation of the network. This paper presents an improved risk assessment method based on Markov game that has simply changed the past, in which the risk status of the network assets were classified into fixed categories. Depending on the game relationship between fixing vulnerabilities and threat attacking, this method has more detailed characterization of the network risk. Network attacks and vulnerabilities are sorted, which reduces the state space, making the scale of model input greatly reduced, improving the assessment of large-scale network efficiency. Simulation results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of this method.

수상함 개발에서 기술성숙도, 난이도 및 중요도 기반의 위험도 평가 방안

The objective of this paper is to propose a method of how to perform risk assessment in the early stage of defense research and development for the acquisition of weapon systems. An advanced method for risk assessment and its associated objective functions are developed first based on the concept of systems engineering. The developed method is then applied to carry out the analysis of alternatives in the trade-off environments. As a case study, the multi-purpose training ship is considered, where it is performed using the notions of technology readiness levels, degrees of difficulty, and technology need values to facilitate design space visualization and decision maker interaction. It is noted that decision makers can benefit from our approach as an improved risk assessment method in the context of multi-criteria decision making.

Cardiovascular Risk Prediction

Few topics have received as much attention in the cardiovascular literature over the last 5 years as risk prediction. The assessment of risk has been a key element in efforts to define risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD), to identify novel markers of risk for CVD, to identify and assess potential targets of therapy, and to enhance the cost-effective implementation of therapies for both primary and secondary prevention of CVD. With the publication of the Third Report of the National Cholesterol Education Program’s Adult Treatment Panel (ATP-III)1 in 2001 and similar guidelines from other national and international bodies,2–5 risk prediction assumed a central role in the field of CVD prevention. Since then, numerous attempts have been made to refine and improve risk assessment methods. A basic review of the history and principles of risk prediction, their statistical underpinnings, and their clinical implications is thus required to help clinicians and researchers understand the increasingly complex approaches being undertaken to refine CVD risk prediction. Other articles in this series address the current adoption, utility, and effect of risk estimation algorithms in clinical prevention practice. Risk estimates can theoretically be used to raise population awareness of diseases (such as CVD) that cause a significant burden of morbidity and mortality, to communicate knowledge about that risk to individuals and subgroups, and to motivate adherence to recommended lifestyle changes or therapies. In clinical practice, risk prediction algorithms have been used most directly to identify individuals at high risk for developing CVD in the short term to select those individuals for more intensive preventive interventions. The prime example of this latter “high-risk” prevention strategy, which relies heavily on the quantitative prediction of CVD risk, is the approach promulgated by the ATP-III panel.1 In this algorithm, the stated underlying assumption is that the intensity …

Improving Risk Assessment: Research Opportunities in Dose Response Modeling to Improve Risk Assessment

Substantial improvements in dose response modeling for risk assessment may result from recent and continuing advances in biological research, biochemical techniques, biostatistical/mathematical methods and computational power. This report provides a ranked set of recommendations for proposed research to advance the state of the art in dose response modeling. The report is the result of a meeting of invited workgroup participants charged with identifying five areas of research in dose response modeling that could be incorporated in a national agenda to improve risk assessment methods. Leading topics of emphasis are interindividual variability, injury risk assessment modeling, and procedures to incorporate distributional methods and mechanistic considerations into now-standard methods of deriving a reference dose (RfD), reference concentration (RfC), minimum risk level (MRL) or similar dose-response parameter estimates.

Future directions for EPA Superfund research

AbstractThe EPA Office of Research and Development (ORD) identifies and prioritizes future research areas through a Waste Research Coordination Team. The team works together to plan the ORD Superfund research program, and it has members from each of the ORD laboratories as well as representatives from the Superfund office. Superfund scientists have identified several research topics in applied research areas to improve risk assessment methods and reduce uncertainty in site−specific risk assessments. Research areas include: dermal exposure models and toxicity values, improved methods for exposure factors, pharmaco−kinetic dose−response models, bioavailability and statistical methods. This paper presents ORD future research plans in response to these identified research areas.