Import Risk Analysis Research Articles

Genomic insights into antimicrobial resistant Salmonella in internationally traded chicken meat: First baseline findings in the United Arab Emirates

Non-typhoidal Salmonella is among the most prevalent foodborne zoonoses, challenging food safety and One Health worldwide. A dearth of knowledge exists regarding non-typhoidal Salmonella prevalence and genomic features within the United Arab Emirates (UAE), one of the top markets in chicken meat consumption worldwide. In this study, Salmonella was detected in 16 out of 254 (6.30 %, 95 % confidence interval: 3.64 %, 10.03 %) samples of imported frozen chicken carcasses sampled from UAE retails. Among the recovered serotypes, S. Minnesota; ST 548 (10/16) emerged as the most prevalent, trailed by S. Heidelberg; ST 15 (4/16), and then S. Kentucky; ST 198, and ST 152 (2/16). Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) was most prevalent against tetracycline (93.7 %), followed by ampicillin (68.7 %), and extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ceftriaxone and cefoxitin) (56.2 %); with 68.7 % (11/16) of the isolates classified as multidrug resistant (MDR). Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) analysis revealed the existence of 14 AMR genes, among which the blaCMY-2, an AmpC cephalosporinases resistance gene, presented in 10 of the 16 isolates. Among the ten out of the eleven MDR Salmonella isolates, both IncC and Col(pHAD28) plasmid incompatibility types were concurrently featured. The range of virulence genes varied from 149 to 165 genes, with an average of 168 genes per isolate. Except for one isolate, all other isolates possessed type III secretion system (TTSS) related genes known to be encoded by the Salmonella pathogenicity island-1 (SPI-1). This study contributes to our global understanding of Salmonella epidemiology, specifically focusing on the Middle East. The insights gained from this study are significant in shaping import risk analyses aimed at mitigating Salmonella exposure risks through globally traded chicken. The research underscores the value of WGS as a crucial tool for substantiating evidence-based food safety hazard assessment.

Failure mode and effects analysis using an improved pignistic probability transformation function and grey relational projection method

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is an important risk analysis tool that has been widely used in diverse areas to manage risk factors. However, how to manage the uncertainty in FMEA assessments is still an open issue. In this paper, a novel FMEA model based on the improved pignistic probability transformation function in Dempster–Shafer evidence theory (DST) and grey relational projection method (GRPM) is proposed to improve the accuracy and reliability in risk analysis with FMEA. The basic probability assignment (BPA) function in DST is used to model the assessments of experts with respect to each risk factor. Dempster’s rule of combination is adopted for fusion of assessment information from different experts. The improved pignistic probability function is proposed and used to transform the fusion result of BPA into probability function for getting more accurate decision-making result in risk analysis with FMEA. GRPM is adopted to determine the risk priority order of all the failure modes to overcome the shortcoming in traditional risk priority number in FMEA. Applications in aircraft turbine rotor blades and steel production process are presented to show the rationality and generality of the proposed method.

Import Risk Analysis of the Decapod Iridescent Virus 1 (DIV1) Applied in South Korea: Qualitative Risk Review and Institutional Improvement Plans

Decapod iridescent virus 1 (DIV1) is a dangerous new virus that causes mortality to shrimp and crayfish. This virus has been reported in China, which is a major exporter of decapods to South Korea and its neighboring countries, Taiwan and Thailand. This virus can be regarded as a pathogen with a high risk of entry into Korea. Therefore, South Korea has been conducting emergency quarantine for DIV1 since 2020, and in this study, an import risk analysis was performed following the World Organization of Animal Health and domestic laws and regulations to present scientific grounds and validity for South Korea’s DIV1 emergency quarantine. Import risk analysis was performed by hazard identification, entry assessment, exposure assessment, and consequence assessment. As a result of the import risk analysis, it was confirmed that the current DIV1 quarantine can significantly reduce the import risk. However, it was also established that the management of prawns and polychaetes intended for animal feed or bait and currently not subjected to quarantine is also required. Additionally, two species of crabs that would meet the criteria for a completely susceptible species and two species of crayfish that required surveillance of the import amount or route of exposure were also identified. In conclusion, these uses and susceptible species were designated as quarantine targets for nonhuman consumption requiring risk management and import sanitary conditions to be performed before export and after import. Finally, alternatives to reduce the cost burden of stakeholders following the introduction of the system were also presented.

Tilapia health: quo vadis?

Tilapia health: <i>quo vadis</i>?

EPPO Datasheet: Naupactus xanthographus

EPPO Datasheet: <i>Naupactus xanthographus</i>

Brackishwater Aquaculture Health Management with Special Referencve to Shrimp Farming in India: Status and the Way Forward

The brackishwater aquaculture in India has evolved significantly during the past four decades and has been dominated by shrimp farming. The native shrimp species have been replaced by the Pacific white shrimp. Since its introduction there has been tremendous growth in aquaculture production, contributing significantly to the economy. With the intensification and expansion of aquaculture, challenges due to disease and crop failures have become the most important concerns. The white spot disease (WSD) and Hepatopancreatic microsporidiosis or Enterocytozoon hepatopenaei (EHP) are the most important diseases causing significant economic loss to the Indian shrimp farming. Aquatic animal health management (AAHM) constitutes management practices primarily designed to prevent diseases. The AAHM at the Government level includes, import risk analysis (IRA), aquatic quarantine, disease surveillance and reporting, zoning, and contingency planning. Options at the field level on disease control and prevention are limited since these are still under research and development. The Indian brackishwater aquaculture sector has major Acts and other legal instruments in place for Coastal Aquaculture. The Indian brackishwater aquaculture has tremendous scope to increase aquatic productivity applying the principles of better management practices (BMPs) on environmental sustainability principles and make the sector economically efficient and a socially equitable enterprise, and have been adequately addressed in the recently launched Pradhan Mantri Mathsy Sampada Yojana (PMMSY).

Qualitative assessment of the probability of introduction and onward transmission of lumpy skin disease in Ukraine

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a transboundary disease affecting bovine animals, which may result in severe economic implications. Ukraine is considered particularly vulnerable to LSD due to its proximity to regions where the virus is circulating. In addition, its ecological and environmental parameters can sustain, in summer, the spread of the disease in case it entered the country.This qualitative risk assessment aimed to investigate the probability that LSD virus is introduced to Ukraine and, if introduced, what would be the probability of onward transmission in the country within the next year. The risk assessment followed the OIE import risk analysis for animals and animal products guidelines and was undertaken with the support of local experts via an expert elicitation workshop. A modified Delphi approach was used to gather experts inputs.The illegally traded cattle was the pathway considered to have the highest probability of LSD introduction; however the probability was estimated to be low. When assessing the probability of an animal being exposed to the virus and further onward transmission in Ukraine, the highest probability estimate was related to flying vectors (high probability). During the expert opinion workshop, the Delphi approach helped to increase the agreement between experts and to assess the uncertainty related to some of the probability estimates.Throughout the risk assessment, some data gaps were identified and highlighted. The lack of reliable data on animal movements and biosecurity in Ukraine were emphasized. Based on the elicited probability estimates, the local experts generated recommendations for risk management practices. To our knowledge, this is the first risk assessment performed on LSDV in Eastern Europe and the conceptual framework adopted can help other countries willing to do a risk assessment in a similar data scarce environment.

Patterns of infection, origins, and transmission of ranaviruses among the ectothermic vertebrates of Asia.

Ranaviral infections, a malady of ectothermic vertebrates, are becoming frequent, severe, and widespread, causing mortality among both wild and cultured species, raising odds of species extinctions and economic losses. This increase in infection is possibly due to the broad host range of ranaviruses and the transmission of these pathogens through regional and international trade in Asia, where outbreaks have been increasingly reported over the past decade. Here, we focus attention on the origins, means of transmission, and patterns of spread of this infection within the region. Infections have been recorded in both cultured and wild populations in at least nine countries/administrative regions, together with mass die‐offs in some regions. Despite the imminent seriousness of the disease in Asia, surveillance efforts are still incipient. Some of the viral strains within Asia may transmit across host–taxon barriers, posing a significant risk to native species. Factors such as rising temperatures due to global climate change seem to exacerbate ranaviral activity, as most known outbreaks have been recorded during summer; however, data are still inadequate to verify this pattern for Asia. Import risk analysis, using protocols such as Pandora+, pre‐border pathogen screening, and effective biosecurity measures, can be used to mitigate introduction of ranaviruses to uninfected areas and curb transmission within Asia. Comprehensive surveillance using molecular diagnostic tools for ranavirus species and variants will help in understanding the prevalence and disease burden in the region. This is an important step toward conserving native biodiversity and safeguarding the aquaculture industry.

A framework for national official assurance systems with reference to World Organisation for Animal Health standards.

With the expansion and intensification of international trade in animals and animal products in the last decades, the risk of the spread of transboundary animal diseases has increased. Veterinary Authorities may take legitimate measures at import to protect their territories' animal and human populations, and may require official assurances for imported animals or animal products. These measures have often led to overly stringent restrictions or even wide embargoes that may have a counterproductive effect. In order to avoid unjustified barriers to trade, the World Trade Organization's Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures recognises the standards of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) as the international references to be followed for animal health measures. The OIE standards provide for scientifically based recommendations for risk mitigation measures before and after international movements, depending on the disease and the commodity. They also provide for import risk analysis and bilateral equivalence methodologies, as well as certification rules and border inspection procedures. In order to provide confidence that trade requirements are met, exporting countries' Veterinary Authorities need to implement national assurance systems. For that reason, OIE Members should primarily follow the OIE standards for quality Veterinary Services. Veterinary Authorities are invited to use the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code (Terrestrial Code), Aquatic Animal Health Code, Manual of Diagnostic Tests and Vaccines for Terrestrial Animals, and Manual of Diagnostic Tests for Aquatic Animals to build capable services and implement sound and effective measures. The User's Guide of the Terrestrial Code lists the elements that are essential to achieving this.

How important risk analysis of plastic pollution in coastal area? Case study in Masohi, Central Maluku

Human pressure on the coastal and aquatic surrounding ecosystem in Indonesia, through plastic waste, is increasing, considering that 60 % of the approximately 250 million people live in the coastal areas. Plastic waste originating from human activities has become a massive problem in almost all the small island and coastal regions, especially in the eastern part of Indonesia. This condition is caused by poor waste management and a lack of public awareness in disposing of waste in its place, including in an area known as its marine biodiversities and marine tourism spots like Masohi in Central Maluku. Also, the composition of waste is dominated by plastic waste that cannot be decomposed in a short period, continue circulated on the ocean currents, and will be deposited in coastal areas. Furthermore, some plastic waste will break down into micro-plastics that pollute not only the environment but also marine biota, which are often consumed by humans. This situation profoundly affects the sustainability and function of aquaecosystem services in coastal areas. Therefore, a comprehensive policy and regulation, and interdisciplinary study for analysing vulnerable coastal ecosystem, and mitigating the potential risk of plastic pollution in Masohi, Central Maluku are essential to be conducted.

Risks from disease caused by Mycobacterium orygis as a consequence of Greater one-horned Rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) translocation in Nepal.

The greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) is listed as vulnerable by the IUCN Red List. Mycobacterium orygis-associated disease was identified in a single greater one-horned rhino in Chitwan National Park in February 2015 prior to a planned translocation of five greater one-horned rhinoceros from Chitwan National Park to Bardia National Park for conservation purposes. This paper describes a qualitative disease risk analysis conducted retrospectively post-translocation for Mycobacterium orygis and this translocation, with the aim to improve the understanding of disease threats to the conservation of greater one-horned rhino. The disease risk analysis method used was devised by Sainsbury & Vaughan-Higgins (Conservation Biology, 26, 2017, 442) with modifications by Bobadilla Suarez et al (EcoHealth, 14, 2017, 1) and Rideout et al (EcoHealth, 14, 2017, 42) and included the use of a scenario tree and an analysis of uncertainty as recommended by Murray et al. (Handbook on import risk analysis for animals and animal products. Volume 1. Introduction and qualitative risk analysis, 2004), and the first time this combination of methods has been used to assess the risk from disease in a conservation translocation. The scenario tree and analysis of uncertainty increased the clarity and transparency of the analysis. Rideout et al.'s (EcoHealth, 14, 2017, 42) criteria were used to assess the source hazard and may be useful in comparative assessment of source hazards for future conservation translocations. The likelihood of release into the destination site of Mycobacterium orygis as a source hazard was estimated as of low risk, the risk of exposure of populations at the destination was of high risk and the likelihood of biological and environmental consequences was low. Overall, the risk from disease associated with Mycobacterium orygis as a result of this translocation was found to be low. Recommendations on disease risk management strategies could be improved with a better understanding of the epidemiology including the presence/absence of Mycobacterium orygis in greater one-horned rhino to develop effective disease risk management strategies.

Risk of introduction of Lumpy Skin Disease into France through imports of cattle.

The lumpy skin disease (LSD) virus belongs to the genus Capripoxvirus and causes a disease in cattle with economic impacts. In November 2014, the disease was first reported in Europe (in Cyprus); it was then reported in Greece (in August 2015) and has spread through different Balkan countries since 2016. Although vector transmission is predominant in at-risk areas, long-distance transmission usually occurs through movements of infected cattle. In order to estimate the threat for France, a quantitative import risk analysis (QIRA) model was developed to assess the risk of LSD being introduced into France by imports of cattle. Based on available information and using a stochastic model, the probability of a first outbreak of LSD in France following the import of batches of infected live cattle for breeding or fattening was estimated to be 5.4×10-4 (95% probability interval [PI]: 0.4×10-4 ; 28.7×10-4 ) in summer months (during high vector activity) and 1.8×10-4 (95% PI: 0.14×10-4 ; 15×10-4 ) in winter months. The development of a stochastic QIRA made it possible to quantify the risk of LSD being introduced into France through imports of live cattle. This tool is of prime importance because the LSD situation in the Balkans is continuously changing. Indeed, this model can be updated to process new information on the changing health situation in addition to new data from the TRAde Control and Expert System (TRACES, EU database). This model is easy to adapt to different countries and to other diseases.

Risk Analysis in the Automotive Industry

The automotive industry is one of the most dynamically growing fields of the manufacturingarea. Besides this, it has very strict rules concerning safety and reliability. In our work, our aim is to point out the importance of the automotive industry (based on statistics) and the rules in connection with risk and root cause analysis. The most important risk analysis method is the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA). According to standards and OEM regulations, FMEA is obligatory in the automotive sector. In our study, we summarise the area of FMEA usage, its types and process steps.

Occurrence, antimicrobial resistance and whole-genome sequencing analysis of Salmonella isolates from chicken carcasses imported into Iraq from four different countries

Salmonella is a major cause of human foodborne illnesses worldwide; however, little is known about its occurrence and genomic characteristics in food sources in many developing countries. This study investigates the occurrence, serotypes distribution, antimicrobial resistance, and multilocus sequence types (ST) of Salmonella isolated from 400 imported frozen chicken carcasses sold in the markets of Thi-Qar, south-eastern Iraq. Salmonella was detected in 46 out of 400 tested samples [11.5% (95% confidence interval: 8.5%–15.0%)]. S. Typhimurium was the most abundant (30.4%) among 14 different serotypes recovered from the tested frozen carcasses. Antimicrobial resistance was most frequently detected against tetracycline (84.4%), nalidixic acid (80.4%), streptomycin (69.6%) and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (65.2%). Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) analysis revealed that 18 isolates harbored four β-lactamase resistance genes, with blaCARB-2 was the most commonly (14/18) detected. It was possible to identify 8 multilocus sequence types from the WGS analysis of 40 out of the 46 Salmonella isolates; with ST-11 (among S. Enteritidis) and ST-19 (among S. Typhimurium) were the most frequently detected. These results add to our understanding of the global epidemiology of Salmonella. Our work stands as one of the first reports on WGS analysis of Salmonella from retail chicken in a Middle-Eastern country. Results from this study could be valuable for guiding an informed import risk analysis aiming at reducing the exposure risk from Salmonella through imported chicken carcasses into Iraq. This work demonstrates the value of WGS as a promising tool for supporting evidence-based food safety hazard characterization.

Risk of introduction of lumpy skin disease in France by the import of vectors in animal trucks.

BackgroundThe lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is a dsDNA virus belonging to the Poxviridae family and the Capripoxvirus genus. Lumpy skin diseases (LSD) is a highly contagious transboundary disease in cattle producing major economic losses. In 2014, the disease was first reported in the European Union (in Cyprus); it was then reported in 2015 (in Greece) and has spread through different Balkan countries in 2016. Indirect vector transmission is predominant at small distances, but transmission between distant herds and between countries usually occurs through movements of infected cattle or through vectors found mainly in animal trucks.Methods and principal findingsIn order to estimate the threat for France due to the introduction of vectors found in animal trucks (cattle or horses) from at-risk countries (Balkans and neighbours), a quantitative import risk analysis (QIRA) model was developed according to the international standard. Using stochastic QIRA modelling and combining experimental/field data and expert opinion, the yearly risk of LSDV being introduced by stable flies (Stomoxys calcitrans), that travel in trucks transporting animals was between 6 x 10−5 and 5.93 x 10−3 with a median value of 89.9 x 10−5; it was mainly due to the risk related to insects entering farms in France from vehicles transporting cattle from the at-risk area. The risk related to the transport of cattle going to slaughterhouses or the transport of horses was much lower (between 2 x 10−7 and 3.73 x 10−5 and between 5 x 10−10 and 3.95 x 10−8 for cattle and horses, respectively). The disinsectisation of trucks transporting live animals was important to reduce this risk.Conclusion and significanceThe development of a stochastic QIRA made it possible to quantify the risk of LSD being introduced in France through the import of vectors that travel in trucks transporting animals. This tool is of prime importance because the LSD situation in the Balkans is continuously changing. Indeed, this model can be updated to process new information on vectors and the changing health situation, in addition to new data from the TRAde Control and Expert System (TRACES, EU database). This model is easy to adapt to different countries and to other vectors and diseases.

Sensitivity analysis of decision making under dependent uncertainties using copulas

Many important decision and risk analysis problems are complicated by dependencies between input variables. In such cases, standard one-variable-at-a-time sensitivity analysis methods are typically eschewed in favor of fully probabilistic, or n-way, analysis techniques which simultaneously vary all n input variables and capture their interdependencies. Unfortunately, much of the intuition provided by one-way sensitivity analysis may not be available in fully probabilistic methods because it is difficult or impossible to isolate the marginal effects of the individual variables. In this paper, we present a dependence-adjusted approach for identifying and analyzing the impact of the input variables in a model through the use of probabilistic sensitivity analysis based on copulas. This approach provides insights about the influence of the input variables and the dependence relationships between the input variables. One contribution of this approach is that it facilitates assessment of the relative marginal influence of variables for the purpose of determining which variables should be modeled in applications where computational efficiency is a concern, such as in decision tree analysis of large-scale problems. In addition, we also investigate the sensitivity of a model to the magnitude of correlations in the inputs.

An invasive ant distribution database to support biosecurity risk analysis in the Pacific

Invasive species are one of the most serious threats to biodiversity. Up-to-date and accurate information on the distribution of invasive species is an important biosecurity risk analysis tool. Several databases are available to determine the distributions of invasive and native species. However, keeping this information current is a real challenge. Ants are among the most widespread invasive species. Five species of ants are listed in the IUCN list of damaging invasive species, and many other species are also invasive in the Pacific. We sought to determine and update the distribution information for the 18 most problematic invasive ant species in the Pacific to assist Small Island Developing States with risk analysis. We compared the information on six public databases, conducted a literature review, and contacted experts on invasive ants in the Pacific region to resolve conflicting information. While most public records were accurate we found some new records had not yet been incorporated in the public databases, and some information was inaccurate. The maintenance of public databases faces an enormous challenge in balancing completeness (~15 000 ant species in this case) with accuracy (the impossibility of constantly surveying) and utility.

Strategic approaches to identifying pathogens of imported ornamental fish and the risk posed to biosecurity in Australia

Strategic approaches to identifying pathogens of imported ornamental fish and the risk posed to biosecurity in Australia

Sensitivity Analysis of Model Input Dependencies Using Copulas

Many important decision and risk analysis problems are complicated by dependencies between input variables. In such cases, standard one-variable-at-a-time sensitivity analysis methods are typically eschewed in favor of fully probabilistic, or n-way, analysis techniques which simultaneously model all n input variables and their interdependencies. Unfortunately, much of the intuition provided by one-way sensitivity analysis and its associated graphical output displays such as Tornado diagrams may not be available in fully probabilistic methods. It is also difficult or impossible to isolate the marginal effects of variables in an n-way analysis. In this paper, we present a dependence-adjusted approach for identifying and analyzing the impact of the input variables in a model through the use of probabilistic sensitivity analysis based on copulas. This approach provides insights about the influence of both the input variables and the dependence relationships between the input variables. A key contribution of this approach is that it facilitates assessment of the relative marginal influence of variables for the purpose of determining which variables should be modeled in applications where computational efficiency is a concern, such as in decision tree analysis of large scale problems. In addition, we also investigate the sensitivity to the magnitude of correlation in the inputs.

Detection of dwarf gourami iridovirus (Infectious spleen and kidney necrosis virus) in populations of ornamental fish prior to and after importation into Australia, with the first evidence of infection in domestically farmed Platy (Xiphophorus maculatus)

The movement of ornamental fish through international trade is a major factor for the transboundary spread of pathogens. In Australia, ornamental fish which may carry dwarf gourami iridovirus (DGIV), a strain of Infectious spleen and kidney necrosis virus (ISKNV), have been identified as a biosecurity risk despite relatively stringent import quarantine measures being applied. In order to gain knowledge of the potential for DGIV to enter Australia, imported ornamental fish were sampled prior to entering quarantine, during quarantine, and post quarantine from wholesalers and aquatic retail outlets in Australia. Samples were tested by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) for the presence of megalocytivirus. Farmed and wild ornamental fish were also tested. Megalocytivirus was detected in ten of fourteen species or varieties of ornamental fish. Out of the 2086 imported gourami tested prior to entering quarantine, megalocytivirus was detected in 18.7% of fish and out of the 51 moribund/dead ornamental fish tested during the quarantine period, 68.6% were positive for megalocytivirus. Of fish from Australian wholesalers and aquatic retail outlets 14.5% and 21.9%, respectively, were positive. Out of 365 farmed ornamental fish, ISKNV-like megalocytivirus was detected in 1.1%; these were Platy (Xiphophorus maculatus). Megalocytivirus was not detected in free-living breeding populations of Blue gourami (Trichopodus trichopterus) caught in Queensland. This study showed that imported ornamental fish are vectors for DGIV and it was used to support an import risk analysis completed by the Australian Department of Agriculture. Subsequently, the national biosecurity policy was revised and from 1 March 2016, a health certification is required for susceptible families of fish to be free of this virus prior to importation.