Implications For Climate Change Adaptation Research Articles

Are convection‐permitting climate projections reliable for urban planning over Africa? A case study of Johannesburg

AbstractCities are particularly vulnerable to surface water flooding. It is also well‐known that they influence local rainfall themselves, which has important implications for climate change adaptation planning for cities. At km‐scale resolution, convection‐permitting climate models (CPCMs) better resolve cities and should better represent local urban temperature and rainfall modifications. However, using state‐of‐the‐art pan‐African CPCM simulations with the Met Office Unified Model (CP4), we show that for the city of Johannesburg, South Africa, this is not the case. A significant enhancement of rainfall occurs over the city compared with surrounding rural areas, which is not seen in available observations. We demonstrate this is associated with an overestimated urban heat island effect, which leads to additional triggering of rainfall. Urban signals in future rainfall change are small compared with changes in the wider surroundings, the latter of which we expect to be more reliable than in models with parameterized convection. This suggests that deficiencies in representation of urban processes are of secondary importance in terms of future percentage change in rainfall. We recommend urban planners apply relative changes in CP4 as an uplift to observations, where available, or treat absolute future rainfall as an upper estimate if used directly.

Gendered implications for climate change adaptation among farmers in Madagascar

ABSTRACT Climate change is impacting farmers worldwide; none more so than the millions of smallholder farmers who rely entirely on rain-fed agriculture. Adapting agricultural practices is an important strategy to mitigate climate change’s harmful impacts to food security and livelihoods. Researchers have increasingly sought to understand the factors influencing farmer decision-making on adaptation practices but application of important theories in low-income country contexts is lacking. Therefore, we apply the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to examine farmer intention to adopt agricultural practices in response to climate change based on a survey of 328 smallholder farmers in rural Madagascar. Using structural equation modeling (SEM) to describe the relationship between social connectedness (e.g., interactions with others about farming-related issues), PMT constructs (threat and coping appraisal), and intention to adapt agricultural practices to climate change, we find that coping appraisal is a stronger predictor of intention to adapt than threat appraisal. Further, SEM results show a significant negative relationship between social connectedness and threat appraisal – farmers with greater social connectedness perceive climate change to be less of a threat. Additionally, as female farmers are significantly less socially connected than male farmers, this study provides further evidence of the gendered vulnerabilities to climate change among smallholders. This research has implications for the design of policies and interventions that consider farmer social networks, critical for reducing threat and building coping capacity, in supporting adaptation to climate change among vulnerable farmer populations.

Our cities, our farm lands: The socioeconomic determinants of urban households participation in urban agricultural production under climatic stressors

In Africa, urban agriculture is critical in addressing food security issues, economic and environmental sustainability in rapidly urbanizing regions such as urban Ghana. However, the factors that influence urban residents' participation in urban agricultural production under climate change adaptation has little space in the extant literature. Recognizing the increasing challenges posed by climate change, this study aims to understand the socio-economic factors influencing urban households' participation in agricultural activities and its implications for climate change adaptation and to draw urban households' socio-economic characteristics and their association with participating in urban agricultural production in the era of climate change effects in urban areas of Ghana. A quantitative approach is employed, involving a sample size of 362 urban households' across diverse neighbourhoods. Statistical analyses, including descriptive statistics—frequencies and percentages, inferential statistics—chi-square test and binary regression models, are employed to quantify the relationships between demographic factors and participation levels. The data suggests correlations between demographic variables, such as household size and income are significant at an alpha 0.05 in determining an urban household's participation in urban agricultural production under climatic stressors. Meanwhile, more urban households' in middle and high-class areas participate in urban agriculture than the lower class. Land acquisition is basically through purchasing which is a challenge in urban agriculture production. The study concluded that urban household size and monthly income are influential factors in urban households' participation in urban agricultural production even though land acquisition plays a factor. The study suggests that policymakers and stakeholders should harness the potential of urban agriculture for sustainable development in the era of climate change. This should be done through rolling out pro-poor urban development policies like pro-poor rights and legislation in urban areas; poor access to financial markets; and land tenure reforms that include flexible land holding and access by the poor.

Variability in the responses of rice ecotypes to elevated CO2 based on data from FACE studies in China and Japan: Implications for climate change adaptation

Elevated CO2 increases rice yields, and the response level varies across locations and genotypes. Previous analyses of genotypic variations from diverse Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) studies lacked specificity, limiting their applicability in simulating the responses of crop growth to elevated CO2. Using meta-analysis approach and the ORYZA (v3) model with historical and projected climatic data, this study evaluated the differences in the responses of rice ecotypes to elevated CO2 and identified adaptive measures. Meta-analytical findings indicated that Chinese inbred indica (indicai) and hybrid indica (indicah) rice exhibited comparable yield response rates (28.4% and 31.1%, respectively) to elevated CO2, surpassing those of Chinese japonica rice and Japanese indicai and japonica rice. Achieving higher adaptation to elevated CO2, exemplified by Chinese indicah rice, necessitates the consideration of balanced yield components, with individual contributions to yield responses ranging from 9.8% to 36.2%. This study highlighted the susceptibility of japonica rice to adverse effects of maximum temperatures on yield component responses to elevated CO2 compared to indicai or indicah rice. Strategic adjustments in sowing dates can enhance rice production under climate change, with high-response genotypes benefiting more from optimal sowing periods. Furthermore, for genotypes with less responsiveness to elevated CO2, augmenting nitrogen application in conjunction with sowing date adjustments was beneficial for yield optimization. This research not only advances our understanding of the diverse adaptation strategies of rice genotypes under varying climatic conditions but also enhances the precision of crop growth simulations by accounting for the varied responses to CO2 enrichment. These insights are pivotal for developing targeted breeding and management practices aimed at enhancing climate resilience in rice production.

The Effect of Credit Access on Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Among Dairy Farmers in East Java, Indonesia

This study investigated the critical issue of credit access and its implications for climate change adaptation among dairy farmers in East Java, Indonesia. Using survey cross-sectional data from a sample of 70 dairy farmers, this research employs a combination of probit modelling and propensity score matching (PSM) to examine the determinants of credit access and evaluate its impact on climate change adaptation. The findings indicate that credit access is positively and significantly associated with factors such as farming experience, family size, and the number of employed household members. These factors emerge as pivotal determinants shaping farmers' ability to secure credit. The analysis employing PSM further reveals a notable effect of credit access on climate change adaptation. Farmers with access to credit demonstrate a greater propensity to adopt and implement a greater number of climate change adaptation strategies. The positive association between credit access and climate change adaptation underscores the potential role of financial support in enhancing farmers' resilience to environmental challenges. This suggests that facilitating credit access for farmers could significantly contribute to promoting sustainable agricultural practices in the context of climate change. These findings have implications for policymakers, agricultural practitioners, and financial institutions. By leveraging these insights, targeted interventions can be devised to improve credit accessibility for farmers, thereby fostering effective climate change adaptation strategies within the agricultural sector.

Sex-dependent resilience to extreme drought events: implications for climate change adaptation of a South American endangered tree species

BackgroundRecent changes in climatic trends are resulting in an increased frequency and intensity of extreme events, with unknown effect on ecosystem dynamics in the near future. Extreme drought episodes are recognized as disturbance factors capable of modifying forest dynamics and tree growth. Within this context, dioecious tree species may be impacted by climatic extremes, affecting male/female proportions and, consequently, reproductive processes and species persistence. Therefore, there is an urgent need for species-specific assessments of growth tolerance to extreme dry spells in dioecious tree species, to establish effective conservation strategies for these particular natural resources. Araucaria araucana (araucaria), an endangered dioecious Patagonian tree species, has recently undergone decay and mortality episodes in response to increasing dry climatic conditions. While sex-dependent tolerance to extreme drought episodes has been assessed in the species’ humid distribution range, there is still a lack of information on the gender-based resilience of trees growing in the drier environments of the species’ distribution.MethodsWe reconstructed, through dendrochronological methods, the sex-dependent response of 105 araucaria individuals (55 female and 50 male trees) to five regional extreme dry spells employing a set of different indices. Resistance, recovery period, and average growth reduction of standardized tree-ring growth were examined, analysing the effect of biotic (sex, pre-drought stem tree growth) and abiotic (local climatic conditions before, during, and after extreme climatic episodes) factors on tree resilience.ResultsSex influences only the species resistance to climatic disturbance, with male individuals showing lower tolerance to extreme drought events. Pre-drought radial growth rates and local meteorological conditions preceding, during, and following extreme dry spells strongly modulated araucaria radial growth resilience regardless of tree sex, influencing the species resistance, recovery period, and average growth reduction.ConclusionsWe provide novel and crucial information for the species conservation and management in the current climate change scenario, and contribute to the debate regarding the role of tree sex as a factor influencing woody species growth under particularly adverse climatic conditions. In the face of climate change, an increase in extreme drought events is expected in the easternmost araucaria xeric end distribution area, which will likely decrease the species resilience.

Climate Change Contributions to Increasing Compound Flooding Risk in New York City

Abstract Efforts to meaningfully quantify the changes in coastal compound surge- and rainfall-driven flooding hazard associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) in a warming climate have increased in recent years. Despite substantial progress, however, obtaining actionable details such as the spatially and temporally varying distribution and proximal causes of changing flooding hazard in cities remains a persistent challenge. Here, for the first time, physics-based hydrodynamic flood models driven by rainfall and storm surge simultaneously are used to estimate the magnitude and frequency of compound flooding events. We apply this to the particular case of New York City. We find that sea level rise (SLR) alone will increase the TC and ETC compound flooding hazard more significantly than changes in storm climatology as the climate warms. We also project that the probability of destructive Sandy-like compound flooding will increase by up to 5 times by the end of the century. Our results have strong implications for climate change adaptation in coastal communities.

Robust historical and future drying trends in Central Asia evidenced by the latest observation and modeling datasets

As one of the largest arid and semiarid regions, Central Asia (CA) is prone to drought, which imposes significant impacts on human communities and ecosystems. Understanding the historical and future wetting/drying trend with the backdrop of climate change is paramount to sustainable development in CA. However, previous studies for the historical period yielded inconsistent results due to different data, study durations and methods used and those for the future period are rare. By analyzing the latest generated long-term (1894–2020) homogenized station observations, multiple global climate model (GCM) outputs and their dynamically and statistically downscaled results, we find robust historical and future drying trend in CA, especially in the growing season (April–September). Though there is an increasing tendency in regional precipitation during 1894–2020 in CA, the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) shows a decreasing trend due to the dominating influence of regional warming. Compared to the non-growing season (October–March), the decreasing trend of SPEI is more profound in the growing season. Moreover, the SPEI calculated based on the GCM outputs and their dynamically and statistically downscaled results consistently shows future drying trend in CA throughout the 21st century, which robustly holds against the approaches used to calculate potential evapotranspiration (i.e., Thornthwaite and Penman-Monteith equations). Besides SPEI, the simulated soil moisture of surface layer also exhibits a decreasing tendency. All these lines of evidence suggest robust historical and future drying trends in CA, which have important implications for climate change adaptation in this region.

Socio-economic predictors of Inuit hunting choices and their implications for climate change adaptation.

In the Arctic, seasonal variation in the accessibility of the land, sea ice and open waters influences which resources can be harvested safely and efficiently. Climate stressors are also increasingly affecting access to subsistence resources. Within Inuit communities, people differ in their involvement with subsistence activities, but little is known about how engagement in the cash economy (time and money available) and other socio-economic factors shape the food production choices of Inuit harvesters, and their ability to adapt to rapid ecological change. We analyse 281 foraging trips involving 23 Inuit harvesters from Kangiqsujuaq, Nunavik, Canada using a Bayesian approach modelling both patch choice and within-patch success. Gender and income predict Inuit harvest strategies: while men, especially men from low-income households, often visit patches with a relatively low success probability, women and high-income hunters generally have a higher propensity to choose low-risk patches. Inland hunting, marine hunting and fishing differ in the required equipment and effort, and hunters may have to shift their subsistence activities if certain patches become less profitable or less safe owing to high costs of transportation or climate change (e.g. navigate larger areas inland instead of targeting seals on the sea ice). Our finding that household income predicts patch choice suggests that the capacity to maintain access to country foods depends on engagement with the cash economy. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

Rainfall extremes in Northern Vietnam: a comprehensive analysis of patterns and trends

This study examines the characteristics and trends of extreme rainfall in Northern Vietnam from 1961 to 2018, using daily rainfall data collected from 37 meteorological stations. The study reveals that the average annual rainfall varies significantly across stations, ranging from 1140 mm to 4758 mm. The rainy season accounts for 73% to 92% of the total annual rainfall. Most stations show a declining trend in the annual total rainfall during wet days (PRCPTOT) and the number of wet days (WDAY), while rainfall intensity (SDII) has increased in most stations, particularly during the dry season. This can be attributed to an increase in PRCPTOT and a decrease in WDAY in the dry season. The study also finds a general decreasing trend in the annual maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day) and consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day), as well as for the number of moderate (R16mm) and heavy (R50mm) rainfall days. However, most stations in Northern Vietnam demonstrate no trend in the annual maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) and the annual maximum number of consecutive wet days (CWD). Furthermore, the frequency of extreme rainfall events in Northern Vietnam exceeding the 5-year and 10-year return values of 1961-2018 has decreased in recent decades at many stations. Overall, the findings of this study provide insights into the changing patterns of extreme rainfall in Northern Vietnam, with significant implications for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction efforts in the region.

Climate-Smart Conservation Agriculture, Farm Values and Tenure Security: Implications for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in the Congo Basin

Background and Research Aims: Agriculture through deforestation is an important threat to biodiversity conservation in the Congo Basin’s tropical forest. The policy challenge is not only to promote adaptation to perceived climate change but also to promote forest conservation. The aim of this study is to provide empirical evidence on the impact of farm-level investments in climate-smart agricultural practices related to conservation agriculture in some Congo Basin countries. The hypothesis is that property rights to land and trees play a fundamental role in governing the patterns of investment, forestland management for conservation, as well as in the profitability of agriculture. Methods: A Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation using a Mixed Logit model is used to test farmers’ choice of agricultural system and a farmland value model for each agricultural system which includes determinants of tenure or property rights, climate, soils, and socioeconomic variables such as education and gender. The data was collected from more than 600 farms covering 12 regions and 45 divisions in 3 countries, Cameroon, the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Results: Farmers choose one of three agricultural systems to maximize farm profit mindful of the current tenure regime and environmental conditions. Conservation agriculture techniques within climate-smart practices show benefits for smallholder farmers through improvements in soil health, soil moisture retention and enhanced crop yields. The rights to access, withdraw, manage, as well as exclude others from land and trees affect both the farmers' choice of system and the profit earned from the chosen system. Conclusion: Farm-level investments improve farm incomes and enhance conservation effort for farmers perceiving climate change. Implications for Conservation: Climate change adaptation through planting of trees improves soil stability, restores ecosystems and creates a safe haven for biodiversity. Secure land tenure promotes better forestland management and reduces land degradation in vulnerable communities.

Climate-Smart Agriculture, Non-Farm Employment and Welfare: Exploring Impacts and Options for Scaling Up

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) has been receiving increasing attention in recent policy dialogues for its potential to improve agricultural transformation, risk management, and welfare. This study seeks to provide evidence on the welfare impacts of CSA adoption and its complementarity with non-farm employment using household-level data from Ethiopia combined with novel historical weather data. The study uses a multinomial endogenous switching regression model to deal with selection bias and farmer heterogeneity. The results show that households adopting CSA enjoy higher welfare benefits than non-adopter households. Households experience a higher welfare impact (lower monetary and multidimensional poverty rate) when CSA and non-farm employment are adopted simultaneously. However, there is less evidence regarding the complementarity between CSA and non-farm employment when considering per capita consumption expenditure. The study findings will have important policy implications for climate change adaptation, resilience, and poverty reduction in low-income countries.

An overview of climate change adaptation and mitigation research in Africa

Research on climate change has increased significantly since the 1970s. There has also been a particular focus on Africa, given its vulnerability to climate change impacts and its urbanization trends that may have massive implications for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Despite the wealth of publications on climate change in Africa, there is a lack of review studies that highlight the overall research landscape. If this status of climate research is clarified, African countries can better deal with climate change. Hence, this paper aims to improve our understanding of the status and trends of research on climate change adaptation and mitigation in Africa. Our review, straddling from 1990 to late 2021, recognizes the foundations that underpin climate change adaptation and mitigation literature. Based on keywords associated with Africa's climate change adaptation and mitigation, we undertook bibliometric research by collecting 3,316 related SCI/SSCI articles. In addition, we provided a thematic evolution over three decades, compartmentalized into four sub-periods (1990–2007; 2008–2014; 2015–2019; 2020–2021). Priority research topics and themes have been dynamic over time, with some core concepts receiving more attention (vulnerability, food, water, and energy security). Although the number of published articles exhibited a rapidly growing trend, their distribution is extremely uneven. Articles were mainly published by institutions from certain parts of the continent, with the University of Cape Town, making the highest contribution. About 72% of the existing studies focused on climate change adaptation, while climate change mitigation was less represented with 22%. The results also showed that researchers have examined not all African countries. South Africa, Ethiopia, and Ghana are hot spots, while most countries are largely neglected. Africa and African countries need to improve their future research ability on climate change mitigation. Assessing climate change risks and measures in African countries should be prioritized.

Vulnerability of Barley, Maize, and Wheat Yields to Variations in Growing Season Precipitation in Morocco

Climate change continues to have adverse effects on crop yields in Africa and globally. In Morocco, rising temperatures and declining precipitation are having daunting effects on the vulnerability of crops. This study examines the vulnerability of barley, maize, and wheat to variations in growing season precipitation and socio-economic proxies of adaptive capacity such as literacy and poverty rates at both national and sub-national scales in Morocco. The methodology is based on a composite vulnerability index (vulnerability is a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity). National and sub-national crop yield data used to compute the sensitivity index were downloaded from FAOSTAT and the global crop yield gaps Atlas. The mean annual growing season precipitation data at both the national and sub-national scales used to compute the exposure index were downloaded from the world bank climate portal. Proxy data for adaptive capacity in the form of literacy and poverty rates were downloaded from the world bank, figshare, and MPR archives. The CANESM model was used to validate the crop yield observations. The results show that wheat shows the lowest vulnerability and the highest adaptive capacity, while maize has the highest vulnerability and lowest adaptive capacity. Sub-nationally, vulnerability indexes decrease northwards while adaptive capacity and normalized growing season precipitation increase northwards. Wheat also shows the lowest vulnerability and highest adaptive capacity and normalized growing season precipitation at each latitude northward. Model validation shows that the models used here reproduce most of the spatial patterns of the crops concerned. These findings have implications for climate change adaptation and climate policy in Morocco, as it becomes evident which of these most cultivated crops are more vulnerable nationally and spatially. These results have implications for future research, as it might be important to understand how these crops perform under growing season temperature as well as what future projections and yield gaps can be observed.

Extreme storms in Southwest Asia (Northern Arabian Peninsula) under current and future climates

Precipitation extremes will generally intensify in response to a warming climate. This robust fingerprint of climate change is of particular concern, resulting in heavy rainfall and devastating floods. Often this intensification is explained as a consequence of the Clausius–Clapeyron law in a warmer world, under constant relative humidity. Here, based on an ensemble of CMIP5 global climate models and high-resolution regional climate simulations, we take the example of Southwest Asia, where extreme storms will intensify beyond the Clausius- Clapeyron scaling, and propose an additional novel mechanism for this region: the unique increase in atmospheric relative humidity over the Arabian Sea and associated deep northward penetration of moisture. This increase in humidity is dictated by changes in circulation over the Indian Ocean. Our proposed mechanism is consistent with the recent, most extreme storm ever observed in the region. Our findings advance a new understanding of natural climate variability in this region, with substantial implications for climate change adaptation of the region’s critical infrastructure.

Afforestation with Pinus nigra Arn ssp salzmannii along an elevation gradient: controlling factors and implications for climate change adaptation

Key MessageThe first bottleneck in Spanish black pine survival through afforestation is the lack of resistance to drought in their initial life stages.Spanish black pine (Pinus nigra Arn ssp. salzmannii) is the most widely distributed pine species in mountain areas of the Mediterranean Basin and is commonly used for afforestation in endangered and degraded areas. Despite its importance, little is known regarding the factors driving seedling survival for this species, which may hamper afforestation success in Mediterranean areas. In this study, we assessed the effects of seed origin and plantation site along a natural gradient with contrasting elevation and climatic conditions in a Mediterranean forest in Central-Eastern Spain. Our results showed: (1) higher seedling survival rates when seed origin differed from plantation site (25.3 ± 5.4%) compared to same origin and plantation site (5.3 ± 2.7%); (2) higher survival probability (~ 20%) for high and medium elevation seeds (colder and wetter locations) compared to the warmer and drier low elevation sites (15%); (3) higher seedling survival (~ 40%) at higher elevation sites compared to low-elevation sites (< 20%); and (4) increased hazard of seedling death with decreasing elevation of the plantation site. We also reported a complete mortality at the drier sites after the first summer following the plantation. Overall, the combination of seeds from medium elevation and high elevation plantation sites increased the survival of Spanish black pine. These results have direct implications for forest management of Spanish black pine in Mediterranean regions, particularly in current and future climate change scenarios.

WEATHER AT DIFFERENT GROWTH STAGES, MULTIPLE PRACTICES AND RISK EXPOSURES: PANEL DATA EVIDENCE FROM ETHIOPIA

This study investigates the effects of combinations of climate smart agricultural practices on risk exposure and cost of risk. We do this by examining the different risk components — mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis — in a multinomial treatment effects framework by controlling weather variables for key stages of crop growth. We found that adoption of combinations of practices is widely viewed as a risk-reducing insurance strategy that can increase farmers’ resilience to production risk. The hypothesis of equality of weather parameters across crop development stages is also rejected. The heterogeneous effects of weather across crop growth stages have important implications for climate change adaptation to maximize quasi-option value. For a country that has the vision to build a climate-resilient economy, this knowledge is valuable to identify a combination of climate smart practices that minimizes production risk under variable weather conditions.

Climate-driven vulnerability and risk perception: implications for climate change adaptation in rural Mexico

Climate change is a major issue for rural communities in developing countries; thus, a better understanding of climate-related vulnerability and risk beliefs to unlock adaptation actions is necessary. By focusing on the rural communities located in the Mexican lagoon system of El Carmen, El Pajonal and La Machona, we first investigate different sources of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and derive an aggregated vulnerability index integrating all the information. Hence, we link the different vulnerability sources—on top of additional cognitive and experiential elements—with climate-related individual risk perceptions. On the one hand, results identify the municipalities and communities most endangered and reveal the existence of levels of vulnerability along the lagoon deserving prioritization and action. On the other hand, a relationship between greater vulnerability and higher perception of risk applies. While exposure, sensitivity and cognitive components are found to shape climate-related risk perception, adaptive capacity and experiential factors appear to have no statistically significant influence.

Disentangling mechanisms of early succession following harvest: Implications for climate change adaptation in Canada’s boreal-temperate forests

Predicting forest succession is not a trivial pursuit and has remained a central challenge for scientists and foresters for well over a century. While thousands of papers have been published on the topic, contributing to a plethora of concepts and terminologies, there remains confusion over causal mechanisms, inhibiting our ability to adopt many lessons learned to sustainable forest management. Based on an emerging conceptual model of forest succession, presented here as the “Succession Triangle”, we sought to explore the relative importance of mechanisms hypothesized to drive succession following commercial harvesting across a wide landscape in the Acadian Forest Region of eastern Canada. Using machine learning techniques and repeatedly measured forest stand inventory data, including 19,332 forest stands measured over a ≈30 year period, we uncovered dominant early succession pathways and investigated key mechanisms driving these pathways. Overall, our results show stands may follow multiple succession pathways following harvesting, including early dominance by so-called “late-succession” species (e.g., black spruce and sugar maple), depending on causal mechanisms. More specifically, mechanisms related to the state of the environment (primarily climate) and differential species availability (mainly pre- and post-harvest overstorey composition) had the strongest control over early succession. The strong influence of pre-harvest composition on early succession supports the ‘direct regeneration’ hypothesis; while the importance of post-harvest overstorey composition suggests the use of partial-cutting as a means of regenerating shade-tolerant species (e.g., sugar maple and red spruce). Site conditions (i.e., slope and drainage) influenced the direction of succession, but landscape-level variation in climate had the overall strongest effect, with colder, more moist climates promoting regeneration of balsam fir, while warmer, dryer climates encouraged shade-intolerant, broadleaf species (birches, red maple and poplars), especially following clear-cutting.Given the strong influence of climate, we used our fitted model to predict the impact of late 21st century climate change on early succession using the “business-as-usual” RCP 8.5 radiative forcing scenario. Our results indicate climate change is likely to increase the regeneration of shade-intolerant, broadleaf tree species (e.g., red maple and poplars) across the landscape at the loss of cold-adapted balsam fir, supporting the hypothesis that young, post-harvest stands are vulnerable to climate-driven shifts in composition as postulated by ‘resilience theory’, and corroborating previous simulation studies that predict rapid 21st century climate warming will lead to ‘deborealization’ of Canada’s Acadian Forest Region.

Villagization and access to water resources in the Middle Awash Valley of Ethiopia: implications for climate change adaptation

ABSTRACT Since the 1970s, the Government of Ethiopia has implemented villagization, whereby nomadic pastoralist groups are supported to develop (more) sedentary lifestyles and livelihoods. Villagization has been officially promoted to encourage diversification from livestock herding to agricultural cultivation, and to fulfil basic needs through infrastructure and services. From the late 2000s, villagization was reintroduced for arid and semi-arid regions as a strategy for adaptation to climate change, as part of the country's green growth agenda. The aim of this paper is to evaluate to what extent this phase of villagization has contributed to adaptation strategies among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities, based on an empirical analysis of four villagised sites in the Middle Awash Valley using qualitative data collected between 2014 and 2018. Perceptions and experiences of villagization varied across individuals, households, villages, and districts. While villagization has generally delivered infrastructure and services, and offered income diversification to those able to access irrigated agriculture, its implementation has been partial and uneven, and it has reproduced previous problems of resource scarcity while creating new risks and vulnerabilities. We argue that villagization may play a role in some aspects of adaptation, if programmes address the drivers of livelihood change, and embed equity and rights.