Implementation Of Monetary Policy Research Articles

Application of Big Data in Digital Currency and Blockchain Finance

With the rise of emerging economic models, the cryptocurrency system, centered on the internet and electronization, is gradually returning to its core functions — storage, data processing, and related services. The deep value of massive data lies in rapid mining to uncover its inherent patterns, which is not only crucial for the operation, regulation, and monetary policy implementation of cryptocurrencies but also serves as an essential support for the transition from paper money to digital currencies. Given this, this research plans to conduct a detailed exploration of the application of big data in the field of cryptocurrency and blockchain finance, aiming to contribute to the continuous progress of China’s financial industry.

Dynamic Spillovers from US (Un)Conventional Monetary Policy to African Equity Markets: A Time-Varying Parameter Frequency Connectedness and Wavelet Coherence Analysis

Since the implementation of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) by the US in response to the global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been increasing concerns that these forward guidance and quantitative easing programmes have had spillover effects on global equity markets. We specifically question whether the implementation of these UMPs have had spillovers to African equities, which have been previously speculated to be decoupled from global markets and shocks. Time-varying-parameter (TVP) frequency connectedness and wavelet coherency methods were used to examine the dynamic time-frequency spillovers between daily time series of the US shadow short rate and African equities returns/volatility between 1 January 2007 and 31 March 2023. On one hand, the TVP frequency connectedness analysis reveals robust long-run spillovers from US monetary policy to African equity markets during specific periods: 2009, 2013, 2020, and 2021. These coincide with instances when the Federal Reserve announced their transition from conventional to unconventional monetary practices and vice versa. On the other hand, the wavelet analysis provides insights into the ‘sign’ of the spillovers, indicating mixed phase dynamics during UMPs responding to the GFC. In contrast, anti-phase or negative co-movements characterize UMPs implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic, implying that these policies increased both returns and volatilities to African equities. Altogether, we conclude that US UMP has increasing deteriorated market efficiency and amplified portfolio risk in African equities whilst during ‘normalization’ periods US monetary policy has little transmission effect.

The influence of unconventional monetary policy tools: an euro area perspective

Purpose – This article aims to investigate the influence of unconventional monetary policy tools (UMPTs) employed by the European Central Bank (ECB) on the inflation rate and GDP growth rate within the euro area, motivated by the principles of the Taylor rule. Research methodology – Elastic net regression with ARIMA residuals was used to analyse the relationship between UMPTs and economic indicators, measured by adjusted R-squared. Six samples were constructed, and hypothesis testing was performed using moving block bootstrapping. Residual diagnostics were used for model validation. Findings – The study revealed significant impacts of UMPTs, particularly in combination with interest rates, on inflation rates. However, adjusted R-square values for GDP growth rate were less pronounced, indicating a more complex relationship. Research contributes to understanding the dynamics of monetary policy transmission mechanisms, informing policy institutions, and guiding future research directions. Research limitations – Limitations include the focus on the euro area and the absence of analysis in other major economies. Future research should address these limitations and incorporate additional variables for a more comprehensive analysis. Practical implications – The findings provide insight for policymakers regarding the efficacy of UMPTs in influencing inflation rates, aiding in informed decision-making in monetary policy formulation and implementation. Originality/Value – This study contributes novelty by comprehensively analysing the relationship between UMPTs and economic indicators within the euro area, providing valuable insight into monetary policy institutions, and guiding future research directions.

Treasury Bill Shortages and the Pricing of Short‐Term Assets

ABSTRACTWe propose a model of post‐Great Financial Crisis (GFC) money markets and monetary policy implementation. In our framework, capital regulation may deter banks from intermediating liquidity derived from holding reserves to shadow banks. Consequently, money markets can be segmented, and the scarcity of Treasury bills available to shadow banks is the main driver of short‐term spreads. In this regime, open market operations have an inverse effect on net liquidity provision when swapping ample reserves for scarce T‐bills or repos. Our model quantitatively accounts for post‐2010 time series for repo rates, T‐bill yields, and the Fed's reverse repo facility usage.

Analysing the evolving effectiveness of monetary policy instruments in China: insights from the TVP-SV-MF-bfavar framework

ABSTRACT The application of monetary policy rules requires careful consideration across different macroeconomic stages. As the largest developing nation, China has undergone significant economic reforms over the past few decades, providing valuable insights into the effectiveness of various monetary policy rules at different stages of development. This study introduces an innovative research framework, the TVP-SV-MF-BFAVAR model, and employs mixed-frequency data (quarterly, monthly, daily) spanning 20 years to construct relevant proxy indices. It empirically examines the evolving trends in the effectiveness of price-based and quantity-based monetary policy rules in China. The findings indicate that as the economy matures and interest rate marketization progresses, the effectiveness of price-based monetary policy has improved, while quantity-based measures remain reliable policy instruments. Moreover, the effectiveness of monetary policy rules exhibits distinct time-varying characteristics in response to macroeconomic fluctuations, suggesting the need for policy adjustments across different economic stages. Developing nations should actively promote interest rate marketization reforms to foster an enabling environment for the effective implementation of monetary policy.

Central bank balance sheet, liquidity and autonomous factors

For monetary policy implementation purposes, it is important to forecast demand of liquidity in the market in order to ensure market equilibrium that is close to the monetary policy target by injecting or withdrawing liquidity from the market. One of the main reasons of changes in liquidity conditions is autonomous factors, which are reflected in central bank balance sheet. There are interconnections between the changes in these factors, the exploration of which can enhance the effectiveness of liquidity demand forecasts.

Do CBDCs promote financial inclusion and strengthen the monetary regulations?

Digital currencies are impacting the financial lives of people and countries around the world; particularly developing countries see the retail Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) as an opportunity to increase financial inclusion and introduce new monetary policy implementation mechanisms. The decision to launch a digital currency mainly depends upon the goals and objectives being set by the Central Bank of any respective country. Digital currencies help to implement monetary policy more effectively to achieve the financial system stability. Kazakhstan is the leading economy in the Commonwealth of Independent States region; the digital payments market is changing rapidly in Kazakhstan, being driven by fintech innovations and public investments in payment technologies. In this article, we thoroughly discussed how launching of “Digital Tenge” is promoting financial inclusion and strengthening the monetary regulations across Kazakhstan. We took the case of Kazakhstan because it’s the first country from Central Asia which took the initiative of launching digital currency, and the National Bank of Kazakhstan has already announced that implementation of “Digital Tenge” would be completed in Kazakhstan by the end of 2025. The implementation of a “Digital Tenge” as a CBDC in Kazakhstan would expand the range of financial services being available to the nation. Having direct authority over the digital currency will empower the National Bank of Kazakhstan to adopt more efficient monetary policy, exerting influence over interest rates, money supply, and general economic stability. Furthermore, by providing digital financial services to marginalized communities, the digital Tenge would also help to solve the difficulties of financial inclusion in Kazakhstan. The article provides the possible policy routes for the governments of developing countries and the financial regulators about adopting CBDCs for promoting financial inclusion and to strengthen the monetary regulations.

Sustainable development goals under threat: the impact of inflation on construction projects

PurposeDespite advancements in construction digitalisation and alternative building technologies, cost overrun is still a challenge in the construction industry. The inflation rate is increasing, especially in developing countries, and is critical in cost overrun matters. It can deviate construction built-up rate components. This may thwart improving construction-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Studies concerning the impact of the inflation rate on construction-related SDGs are scarce in developing countries, including Nigeria. The study investigated the impact of inflation on Nigeria’s construction projects and their outcome on SDGs and suggested possible ways to improve achievement of construction-related SDGs and their targets.Design/methodology/approachThe researchers employed a qualitative research design. This is because of the study’s unexplored dimension. The researchers engaged 35 participants across major cities in Nigeria via semi-structured virtual and face-to-face interviews. The research utilised a thematic method for collated data and accomplished saturation.FindingsFindings reveal that the impact of inflation on construction projects, if not checked, could hinder achieving construction-related SDGs in Nigeria. This is because of the past three years of hyperinflation that cut across major construction components. It shows that the upward inflation rate threatens achieving construction-related SDGs and proffered measures to mitigate inflation and, by extension, enhance achieving construction-related SDGs. This includes a downward review of the Monetary Policy Rate, control of exchange rate volatility and addressing insecurity to restore FDIs and FPIs confidence.Originality/valueBesides suggesting possible solutions to mitigate hyperinflation on construction components to improve achieving construction-related SDGs, findings will stipulate government policymakers put measures in place through favourable fiscal and monetary policy implementation and encourage moving from a consumption to a production nation.

PUBLIC MANAGEMENT OF CURRENCY SECURITY IN UKRAINE: CHALLENGES AND PERSPECTIVES IN MODERN REALITIES

The article examines issues related to the effectiveness of public administration in the field of monetary security in Ukraine. The article presents general characteristics of the nature, state, and dynamics of the effectiveness of public administration in the field of currency security in Ukraine. The assessment of the current state and dynamics of the currency security indicators in Ukraine was made on the basis of the characteristics of the state monetary policy components indicators compared to similar indicators in Poland. The characteristics of exchange rate dynamics, GDP dynamics, and labour market dynamics in Ukraine and Poland are presented. The main economic factors affecting the exchange rate, namely the inflation rate and the state of the balance of trade account of the balance of payments have been considered. The main factors reducing the efficiency of Ukraine's monetary security administration are detailed. The dynamics of the indicators of the level of Ukraine's shadow economy proved to be contrary to the goals and objectives of the "Strategy of Ukraine's Economic Security until 2025". The ways to minimize the negative influencing factors and, accordingly, strengthen the implementation of monetary and credit policy and improve the efficiency of state management of monetary security of Ukraine were proposed. The development of currency circulation in Ukraine is ensured by the state's influence on monetary relations by specially authorized bodies with different legal statuses and powers. In practice, difficulties arise in the application of monetary law in the process of currency regulation. The mechanisms of interaction between state control bodies in the field of currency regulation have not yet been established, which weakens the position of the state in the currency market and hinders the process of integration into the international economic system.

An Empirical Analysis of Money Demand and Its Stability in Zambia 1984-2021

The paper was an empirical analysis of the stability of money demand in Zambia between 1984 and 2021. The money demand function tries to explain the factors that influence people’s demand for money in an economy. The determinants included real income, exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rate. Using E-views 9.0, an appropriate model was estimated for statistical analysis. In the analysis of data, unit root tests were done to check the order of integration of the variables. Furthermore, to test for long term equilibrium relationships among variables the Augmented-Dickey Fuller (ADF) was used to test procedure on the residuals. Out of the many ways of testing for normality, this paper chose the Jarque-Bera test to conduct the normality test on the variables. From this study’s results, the bound test showed that there is a long run cointegration relationship among demand for real money balances, real GDP, interest rates, exchange rate and inflation in case of broad money aggregates. In the long run, all the independent variables are significant determinants of money demand which will be positively affected by percentage changes in exchange rates and negatively by percentage changes in gross domestic product, inflation, and interest rate. The study found that for the implementation of monetary policy in any economy to be successful, it relies heavily on the instruments of monetary policy used as well as the structure of the economy. However, for emerging economies such as Zambia, there are special hurdles that may make the implementation of monetary policy less effective in the achievement of the monetary policy goals. From the findings, it is recommended that as the process of modernizing monetary policy frameworks are implemented in addressing emerging economic challenges, there is need to continue with monetary aggregates in monetary policy conduct.

The new monetary policy regime under central bank’s abundant balance sheet: the case of the Federal Reserve

PurposeThe transmission of monetary policy has received considerable attention due to the sizable enlargement of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and consequently of the large reserve balances held by the Depository Institutions. This paper aims to investigate whether changes in the quantity of the reserve balances during the so-called normalization period and the COVID-19 crisis put significant pressure on short-term interest rates and specifically on the Effective Federal Funds rate (EFFR).Design/methodology/approachUnder the new monetary policy regime, with two newly administered interest rates, the authors use the spread of the Federal Funds rates and the Interest on Reserve Balances (as a measure of the price of liquidity. With the means of various models such as the structural vector autoregression, the authors investigate, for two different subsample periods, the effectiveness of the monetary policy and the creation of (any) liquidity effects.FindingsThe results showed that when the Fed decreases its balance sheet size, during the normalization period, significant liquidity effects are present meaning that the authorities could influence the stage of the short-term interest rates under the new monetary policy regime. However, this relationship appears to weaken considerably as the level of reserve balances, particularly in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, increases substantially. The authors enriched the findings by highlighting the role of the benchmark repo rate. During the COVID-19 period, and in light of abundant reserve balances, the repo rate reacts more vigorously to a reduction in reserves, whereas an increase in the repo rate seems to exert a strong positive influence on the EFFR.Originality/valueThe findings are very important for the efficiency of the monetary transmission mechanism. An expanded balance sheet is still considered an arcane concept in regard to the structure and its effects on monetary policy implementation. This is one of the only few studies that investigates the effect of the abundant reserve balances on the short-term interest rates for two different in nature subsample periods. It shows as well the interplay between short-term interest rates, secured and unsecured.

Deposit insurance, bank regulation, and narrow banking

Narrow banking has surfaced frequently as a proposed framework for dealing with financial instability and inefficiency. Recent proposals include reforms intended to improve the implementation of monetary policy, and to deal with perceived problems related to stablecoins. A model is constructed in which banks must deal with three frictions: limited commitment, moral hazard with respect to risky assets, and potential misrepresentation of safe assets. Surprisingly, deposit insurance does not engender inefficiency, and government-imposed capital requirements and leverage requirements serve to reduce welfare. The viability of narrow banking depends on inefficient regulation in conventional banking, and narrow banking is never welfare-improving.

EFFECT OF DEPOSITS AND NON-PERFORMING LOANS ON BANK PROFITABILITY – A CASE STUDY ON CONVENTIONAL COOPERATIVE BANK OF BARODA REGION

The banking sector plays a vital role in providing essential financial services, facilitating the allocation of funds to productive ventures, and aiding in the implementation of government fiscal and monetary policies. Historically, Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) have posed significant challenges for banks, but reducing NPAs has now become a top priority. The strength of a nation's economy relies heavily on the health of its cooperative banking sector. This study analyzes the non-performing assets (NPAs) of The Pragati Co-operative Bank Ltd. over a six-year period from 2017-18 to 2022-23. The research examines various aspects related to NPAs, including gross NPAs, net NPAs, provisions made towards NPAs, loans and advances, deposits, and relevant ratios such as net NPA ratio, provision coverage ratio, and credit-to-deposit ratio. The data analysis reveals that the bank maintained a zero net NPA throughout the period, indicating effective provisioning strategies. While gross NPAs fluctuated, the provision coverage ratio remained strong, suggesting the bank's ability to withstand asset quality pressures. The study also investigates the relationship between gross NPAs and net profits using correlation and regression analysis, finding a positive correlation but minimal significant impact of gross NPAs on profitability. Overall, the research highlights The Pragati Co-operative Bank Ltd.'s proactive approach to NPA management, financial stability, and adaptability to changing market conditions.

Monetary policy and capital market interactions in the USA: a VAR approach

US capital markets are one of the most developed financial markets in the world. A lot of factors affect capital market fluctuations, including monetary policy conditions. The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the US and is responsible for monetary policy implementation. Monetary policy tools’ changes interact with various areas of the country’s economy, as well as financial markets. Thus, Fed’s monetary policy is connected with different segments of capital market in the US.

Cointegration Behavior and Diagnostic Stability of Philippine Monetary Policy Implementation During the Period From 1990 to 2022

The observations made in this study were used to evaluate the diagnostic stability of the Philippine Central Bank’s selected monetary policy targets, namely, the Gross Domestic Product and inflation, with money supply, credits, interest rates, and exchange rates, as independent variables, using the autoregressive distributed lag and error correction model analysis. The co-integrating behavior depicted that all p-values of less than the 5% significance level generated different behaviors. However, analysis of the Central Bank’s performance showed that there were no unit roots at all (p > .05) that signified a strong indication of cointegration behavior. The diagnostic stability of the Philippine monetary policy implementation was established over the period from 1990 to 2022. Further, money in circulation caused increases in domestic prices, interest rates, and inflationary pressure, and ultimately affected GDP (ppp). Understanding cointegration behavior is an imperative implication for policy makers to observe and take into consideration.

Monetary Policy Dynamics and the Nigeria’s Global Competitiveness: The Missing Link

Despite the series of monetary policies adopted by the Nigerian government over time, the (Nigerian) economy in comparison to other countries in the world like South Africa, the USA, Ghana, and the like is still improvised. Still, inconsistency between monetary policy formulation and implementation remains another major issues yet unattended to. It is in this regards that, the current study is dedicated towards examining the effect of monetary policy dynamics and the Nigeria’s global competitiveness from 1992 to 2021 (i.e., 30 years) using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The study disclosed that, the variables are integrated at level and first difference while the ARDL Bound test evidenced that, the series cointegrates. Specifically, monetary policy rate has a positive minimal effect on Nigeria’s global competitiveness, while the CRR improved Nigeria’s global competitiveness significantly. However, both lending rates and exchange rates have a significant negative effect on economic competitiveness. Consequently, the paper concludes that both the cash reserve ratio and the Nigeria’s demeaning state are attributed to the high exchange rate (EXR) and high lending rates. Thus, the paper submits that the current monetary policy rates are sustained and that all DMBS should adhere to the stipulated Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) since it has improved the Nigeria’s global competitiveness significantly. Lastly, the study confirmed that, the missing link is the policy surmount on the part of the Nigerian government.

PERAN DAN KONSEKUENSI KEBIJAKAN MONETER DALAM EKONOMI SYARIAH

Monetary policy is one of the crucial instruments in regulating the economy of a country. In conventional economics, monetary policy is implemented through mechanisms such as interest rates and open market operations. However, in Sharia-compliant economies, which are based on the prohibition of riba (interest), monetary policy must be executed using instruments that adhere to Sharia principles. This study adopts a literature review methodology, thus focusing on bibliographic materials by seeking relevant literature. The theoretical data utilized in this research is obtained from library literature and analyzed based on various references in this paper. By understanding the role and consequences of monetary policy in Sharia economics, it is hoped that new insights can be provided for the development and implementation of monetary policies that align with Sharia principles.

Leviathan financialized?

AbstractIn The Rise of Central Banks, Leon Wansleben provides a perceptive account of the evolution of central banking practices in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Switzerland from the 1970s through the subprime mortgage crisis and the global pandemic. Focusing on the concrete practices of monetary policymakers, Wansleben usefully explores the relationship between the development of novel techniques of monetary policy implementation and the financialization of the economy, with the paradox that the central bank appears more powerful, but exercises this power in a system that is ever more prone to crisis. While agreeing with the broad strokes of Wansleben’s analysis, I raise questions about the nature of the ‘infrastructural power’ exercised by the state through financial markets, suggesting that the growing salience of the central bank in the policymaking apparatus should not be conflated with its independent influence over the direction of economic policy.

Research on the potential impact of CBDC on China’s monetary policy framework

Central Bank Digital Currency（CBDC） has the characteristics of traceability and editability. This article respectively elaborates on these two technical characteristics that are different from traditional currencies, and analyzes their impact on the basic elements of the monetary policy framework, namely the ultimate goal of monetary policy, the anchoring method of intermediary goals, monetary policy tools, and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. After analysis, the research results show that the traceability and editability of CBDC can respectively improve and improve the basic elements of the monetary policy framework, and optimize our country's monetary policy framework as a whole. It is recommended to legally clarify the subjects and procedures that can access CBDC data and edit CBDC algorithms to ensure that the traceability and editability of CBDC are not abused. At the same time, pay close attention to its impact on various basic elements, and promptly Adjust the proportion of these two features in the implementation of monetary policy so that monetary policy can achieve the desired effect.

Inflation in Eurozone, Converging and Diverging Countries

The paper analyses the progress eurozone members made towards the convergence of inflation rates, which is a necessary condition for the effective implementation of the common monetary policy broadly appropriate for all members. It was expected that the common monetary policy would lead to the convergence of member states’ economic performance, including inflation rates. The literature review shows that the majority of authors agree that a significant convergence process occurred before 1999, but no further progress was made after that. Our analysis indicates that inflation processes in member countries are diverse. Namely, monetary stability has been achieved in some countries, while inflation is more volatile in others. There is an insufficient correlation between inflation rates, the different transmission of shocks to inflation and different exposure to risks of rising energy and food prices. We conducted a unit root test on the series of inflation differentials for each country to determine which countries were in a process of absolute convergence. In the group of the first 12 members, we found evidence of convergence for the majority of countries, as there is no unit root. Thus, individual countries indeed made progress toward greater monetary stability (and the EMU level). We examined the standard deviations of the inflation differentials in the group of converging countries (separately for converging core and peripheral countries) and found no evidence that these groups of countries are becoming more homogeneous. In the group of new EMU members, we found evidence of convergence towards the EMU average for only four countries in the period of their membership, but not in the previous period.