Implementation Of Large Infrastructure Projects Research Articles

РАЗВИТИЕ ТЕОРЕТИЧЕСКИХ ОСНОВ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ РИСКАМИ КРУПНЫХ ИНФРАСТРУКТУРНЫХ ГЧП-ПРОЕКТОВ

The purpose of this article is to develop the theoretical foundations of risk management in the implementation of large infrastructure projects with government participation using the example of the development of high-speed railways in Russia. The relevance of this topic is due to the fact that for Russia, high-speed highways are a completely new type of transport infrastructure, the creation of which requires the development of existing views and approaches to risk management of large infrastructure projects with government participation. The impact of high-speed highway projects on a country’s economy is difficult to overestimate, as they affect many factors: from stimulating development to improving the quality of life of the population, which is why studying existing tools and proposing new views on risk management that increase the success of projects with government participation is one of the key issues to be addressed.

Evolution of Theoretical Approaches to the Analysis of State and Business Cooperation in the Infrastructure Sphere

The classification of historical periods in the evolution of cooperation between the state and business in the infrastructural sphere by stages and forms of cooperation has been improved: antiquity (use of buyouts; competitive construction of post offices with cities, ports and harbors (manceps); infrastructural construction (precarium)) of the Middle Ages ("casual » application of PPPs; buyouts; concessions; "regalia"); the period of colonization (use of concessions for the development of new land colonies and international trade; involvement of private armed ships with their owners to solve military and trade "tasks" at sea); the origin and development of capitalism, industrialization (systematic concession legislation; capital-intensive projects; attraction of private capital in the form of concessions for the development of the utility sector); the modern stage from the middle of the 20th century. (transition from the policy of "public administration" to the "new public administration" model; "private financial initiative"; development of public-private partnership (PPP) regulation worldwide (in more than 120 countries); launch of cross-border PPP projects and projects with attracting direct foreign investment). It was determined that in France during the Middle Ages and the reign of mercantilism, the predominant role of the state in economic development, including infrastructure development, was emphasized. The state attracted private business and financed the works. Unlike mercantilists, representatives of the school of physiocrats believed that the state should not interfere in the field of entrepreneurship at all. The idea of state cooperation with private business in the development of industry by means of optimal regulation and protection from foreign competition, especially at the initial stage, was also reflected in the works of the German scientist F. List. Implementation of projects through the transfer of infrastructure objects under concession conditions to private companies allows to significantly increase their efficiency. The example of the railways of Belgium, Germany, Austria-Hungary and Switzerland shows that this form of PPP is quite competitive during the implementation of large infrastructure projects. At the same time, in order to achieve economic efficiency, such projects must be accompanied by strict state control. After the Second World War, the doctrine of a socially oriented model and a concerted strategy of economic development (concerted economy) came to the fore in economic thought. The positions of J. Keynes and moderate supporters of state intervention in the economy were dominant until the 70s. 20th century, when the ideas of "state capitalism" reached their peak. It is also necessary to note the role played by the theory of the public sector in justifying the role of the state in the economy at various stages of economic development. The state takes an active role in areas that are not attractive to private actors and are related to the generation of "public goods" to increase the level of well-being.

Еволюція ролі державних банків у економіці

The aggravation of global challenges of economic instability, climate change and local physical destruction of infrastructure as a result of war and man-made disasters leads to a review of assessments regarding the expediency of the existence of banks with state participation. The successful experience of using them to solve large socio-economic projects in a number of countries encourages this. Based on a theoretical generalization of the methodological recommendations of scientists and specialists of international institutions and a comparative analysis of current foreign experience, the article presents a scientific rationale for the feasibility of preserving the state share in the capital of leading banking institutions in Ukraine to ensure the stability of the economy during the war and post-war recovery. It was determined that the key directions of solving these tasks with the participation of state banks should be the preservation of the financial market stability, the support of solvent demand and the solvency of small enterprises, and the implementation of large infrastructure projects. At the same time, it was noted that a significant risk of an excessive share of the state in the banking market is the restriction of competition and the deterioration of the quality of services. Due to existing preferences, state banks are prone to violating the laws of market competition. At the same time, acting not according to the laws of the market, but in line with the government’s socially oriented policy, state banks limit the self-regulatory function of the market, which determines their transitional status. The general conclusion states that at certain stages of economic cycles, banks with state participation are a necessary tool that ensures the achievement of macroeconomic goals, infrastructure reconstruction, financing of priority sectors of the economy and, thereby, increasing the country’s competitiveness on the international market. In the presence of such tasks, banks with state participation take on the role of temporarily leading institutions of the development of the transitional stage.

СОЦІАЛЬНО-ЕКОНОМІЧНІ МУЛЬТИПЛІКАТИВНІ ЕФЕКТИ ВІД РЕАЛІЗАЦІЇ ВЕЛИКИХ ІНФРАСТРУКТУРНИХ ПРОЄКТІВ ДЛЯ УКРАЇНСЬКОЇ ЕКОНОМІКИ

Визначення соціально-економічних пріоритетів розвитку держави має базуватися на об’єктивних і точних висновках щодо сучасного стану соціально-економічного розвитку країни, що підтверджені актуальними розрахунками стосовно визначення соціально-економічних мультиплікативних ефектів для національної економіки від реалізації великих інфраструктурних проєктів. Запропонований методичний підхід базується на визначенні ефектів від реалізації інфраструктурного проєкту через розрахунок мультиплікатора зайнятості й мультиплікаційних ефектів від додаткового приросту Випуску шляхом комплексного аналізу міжгалузевих зв’язків, а також виявлення масштабів впливу інфраструктурного проєкту, що поширюються на інші, безпосередньо залучені в нього види економічної діяльності. Підхід дозволяє розрахувати такі мультиплікативні ефекти: 1) створення робочих місць у економіці в цілому за рахунок 1 млн грн інвестицій у проєкт; 2) створення робочих місць у національній економіці в цілому за рахунок 1 млн грн приросту згенерованого проєктом Випуску; 3) створення додаткових фінансових ресурсів у економіці за рахунок одного залученого в проєкт працівника. Апробація підходу полягає у фактичних розрахунках, здійснених на основі проєктних даних конкретного інфраструктурного проєкту у сфері довгострокового будівництва споруд підприємств електроенергетики. Результати апробації методичного підходу показують суттєві соціально-економічні мультиплікаційні ефекти для економіки України. Наприклад, за період будівництва зазначеного інфраструктурного об’єкта протягом 10 років крім прямої зайнятості безпосередньо в проєкті додатково в економіці України було тимчасово залучено 22 тис. працівників, які опосередковано були задіяні в суміжних галузях економіки, що обслуговували даний проєкт.

Assessment of Social Effects Generated by Railways

Currently, the efficiency of transport systems, both at national level and while developing regional and interregional trade and cooperation links, is considered to be among most important factors for successful and sustainable economic development. The enhancement of transport systems in many cases implies implementation of large infrastructure projects, supposing major investment and generating a series of economic and social effects. And if a few studies have already been devoted to the economic impact, the social sphere has not yet received due attention. The paper refers to an attempt to fill this gap. The scope of the study regards passenger rail transport that has being dynamically developed in many countries and that is paid much attention in strategic documents on development of transport industry in the Russian Federation. The objective of the study is to identify the positive and negative effects generated by projects for development of railways, and to propose approaches to their quantitative measurement. The methods engaged in the study comprise the analysis of academic sources and methodological materials already developed abroad and in Russia, as well as relevant regulatory documents, including the methodology for assessing the socio-economic effects of transport infrastructure construction projects. This made it possible to systematise the existing social effects of railway transport into groups. The shown examples of monetary assessment of these effects are based on the best foreign practices. The results could be useful to the investors and the public administration for making decisions on funding, as well as for evaluating the effectiveness of transport projects, which could ultimately allow to save budget funds, increase the return on investment and solve several social problems.

Economy of Kyrgyzstan in the Framework of the Integration Strategy for Silk Road Revival

In this study, an assessment of the need and the effectiveness, as well as the prerequisites for the integration of the Kyrgyz economy into the implementation of the Chinese strategy for the revival of the Silk Road has been made. The main directions and mechanisms of the dynamic development of the economy of Kyrgyzstan in the context of deepening integration are considered. 
 To this end, the current level of trade, as well as the economic and investment cooperation between Kyrgyzstan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) are examined. Measures are outlined to ensure a balance in the foreign trade turnover of Kyrgyzstan with the PRC, and to increase the Kyrgyzstan's export potential.
 In this context, positive and negative trends in the bilateral cooperation for the implementation of large infrastructure projects are identified. Guidelines for expanding mutually beneficial economic cooperation in the field of farming and processing of agricultural products are determined. Recommendations to strengthen the mutually beneficial economic cooperation in the development of hydro-power resources of Kyrgyzstan, the implementation of transport and transit projects, and the construction of international logistics centers are proposed.

Российско-китайские экономические связи в условиях растущей международной напряженности

Economic ties between Russia and China have been growing rapidly since the early 2000s. They are becoming an increasingly significant element of international political and economic relations. The high dynamics of mutual relations is due to the combined action of economic, geopolitical and infrastructural factors. Mutual ties reduce the geopolitical risks of the development of national economies and ensure their stability in the face of growing pressure from the West. For Russia, the achievement of large-scale relations with China was a reflection of the departure from the traditional orientation towards Europe. The economies of the PRC and the Russian Federation structurally complement each other. After the implementation of large infrastructure projects, the Russian Federation has managed to use the factor of neighborhood with China more effectively in present context, while the countries border each other with less developed territories. The growth of mutual cooperation affects the formation of specialization and connections of the Russian regions. The shift of the Russian economy to the eastern regions will accelerate due to the development of transport and logistics functions, which will also entail a variety of production functions. The further development of mutual economic relations is determined by the nature of the dynamics of international relations and the level of coordination of the development of national economies.

Иран мен Орталық Азия елдерінің көліктік-логистикалық саладағы ынтымақтастығы (1990 – 2022 ж.ж.)

The article analyzes the main interests of Iran in Central Asia. There are also considered content and influence of energy, transport, and logistics factors on Iran’s strategy regarding cooperation between Tehran and Central Asia. The authors pay special attention to projects in the field of energy and communications. The article ends with the conclusion that the main areas of cooperation between Iran and the Central Asian region are the formation of transport infrastructure according to the concept of the international transport corridor «North-South», as well as the production and export of energy, gas, and oil. The Iranian side’s forecasts related to the implementation of a number of large-scale transport and logistics projects raise the question of the need to make adjustments to its policy. Little has been written or discussed the IRGC’s policy in Central Asia, and it appears to have been less active in the region. The resumption and tightening of US sanctions have put Iran’s economy in a difficult position. In such cases, significant difficulties arise in the implementation of large infrastructure projects, both due to the lack of the necessary amount of funding and due to various geopolitical conditions. In recent years, Iran’s strategy has remained very cautious and controversial. On the one hand, Tehran is trying to strengthen the regional energy partnership, regardless of US interests and pressure. In this regard, Iran is strengthening bilateral cooperation in the field of energy with the OAU countries. The lifting of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran in January 2016 opened a new stage of development.

Governance arrangements for socio-environmental sustainability in the implementation of large infrastructure projects in the Brazilian Amazon

Resumo A motivação deste artigo é explorar as condições dos arranjos de governança para atender às demandas socioambientais das comunidades locais no contexto de megaprojetos. Especificamente, investigamos como as condições causais “efetividade da participação social”, “empreendedores políticos”, “coordenação governamental”, “orçamento público”, “prioridade política” e “capacidade administrativa” são mobilizadas em arranjos de governança de planos de desenvolvimento territorial sustentável para atender demandas socioambientais no contexto de megaprojetos de infraestrutura na Amazônia brasileira. Aplicamos o método da diferença de Mill para comparar o papel dessas condições no processamento de cinco demandas socioambientais reivindicadas no contexto da implantação da hidrelétrica de Belo Monte e da pavimentação da BR-163. Os resultados indicam que a relevância dessas condições depende do contexto, e apenas a condição “efetividade da participação social” foi compartilhada por todos os casos de sucesso.

Governance Arrangements for Socio-Environmental Sustainability in the Implementation of Large Infrastructure Projects in the Brazilian Amazon

Governance Arrangements for Socio-Environmental Sustainability in the Implementation of Large Infrastructure Projects in the Brazilian Amazon

Применение мирового опыта EPCМ-контрактов в России

Nowadays the most common type of contracts for the implementation of large infrastructure projects in various fields are EPC/EPCM contracts (engineering, procurement, construction, management). However, these are new tools for domestic practice. The EPCM contract is of particular interest to Russian contractors. Among the obvious advantages, among which we can highlight the complexity of the solution provided for the customer, leveling risks in the case of using an EPC contract, the absence of the need to search and work with many subcontractors, the authors can note the usefulness of such a form of interaction for increasing foreign investment, modernizing the domestic economy: increasing exports of high-tech products and the presence of Russian enterprises in foreign markets. The purpose of the presented research is to identify the problems that cause the backlog of Russian engineering companies in the implementation of infrastructure EPCM projects in the high-tech industry, and to develop ways to solve them. The object of the research is Russian enterprises of the high-tech industry; the aim is to identify the possibilities of EPCM contracts and their application in the framework of the implementation of high–tech projects by Russian contractors. When conducting the research, the authors used the following research methods: a complex approach, a systematic and logical analysis of economic phenomena, a method of comparative analysis. The authors grouped the factors that complicate the signing of EPCM contracts by Russian contractors, identified the risks of implementing such projects. The key directions for the elimination of problems associated with the implementation of infrastructure projects in Russia are highlighted. In a comparative analysis of the Russian and international practices of concluding EPCM contracts, it is possible to identify significant differences in the approaches to order fulfillment and the distribution of responsibility of the parties. The key factor of such a difference is the Russian model of self-regulation of engineering. The authors believe that in the Russian legislation it is necessary to coordinate structural changes in approaches to the conclusion of such contracts, approve a clear list of obligations of the parties under the EPCM form contract and approve the absence of the possibility of making key changes to the contract, including those related to the purpose and scope of work performed.

Improving transport infrastructure in strategies to attract foreign investors to Africa

The paper discusses the most recent African initiatives to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) through improving institutional environment and economy’s competitiveness in the context of regional transport infrastructure modernizing. The FDI role in public-private partnerships and implementation of large infrastructure projects in Africa, such as railways’ and seaports’ construction and modernization, is also considered. The author analyzes the prospects of increasing FDI inflows in Africa through regional transportation development (namely, through seaports and railway networks).

Fronteira Tapajós e direitos das crianças: impactos sociais de grandes empreendimentos econômicos

No presente artigo objetiva-se compreender como a implantação de grandes empreendimentos econômicos na região do Tapajós, especialmente na cidade de Itaituba, Pará, têm afetado os direitos de crianças e adolescentes, especialmente os impactos relacionados à violência sexual, convivência familiar e comunitária, e participação. Utiliza-se dos métodos de pesquisa documental, bibliográfica, entrevistas e grupo focal para realizar um diagnóstico da dinâmica de produção destas violações de direitos e suas relações com as atividades econômicas, assim como a proposição de medidas de responsabilização de estado e empresas.

Sustainable performance challenges of rural microgrids: Analysis of incentives and policy framework in Indonesia

Rural off-grid electrification systems powered by renewable energy have become popular in the Global South. Unfortunately, many microgrids have experienced trouble during their first years of operation, leading to premature system deterioration. In this paper we trace these problems to institutional issues associated with goal displacement in implementing organizations and, relatedly, ineffective programme upscaling, which have remained under-researched in the rural renewable energy literature thus far. Using literature about implementation of large infrastructure projects, political economy of policy making, and replication of innovations as our conceptual lens, we examine a government-initiated microgrid programme in Indonesia. Early project failure was found to be linked to a one-sided policy focus on expanding the number of installed systems, instead of ensuring service quality. This focus is driven by political campaign strategies in which microgrid technologies are used as instruments for political legitimation, and pressure from aid donors to achieve early quantifiable results. It leads higher governmental echelons to care about reaching pre-set installation targets rather than ensuring that lower-level governments face incentives to focus on maintenance and repair. The focus on quantitative expansion also explains a lack of incentives or pressures to address a persistent lack of clarity about responsibilities of each government level, local communities, consultants, and contractors. Similar patterns can be noted in other countries, suggesting the findings have broader relevance for understanding key determinants of microgrid unsustainability in the Global South. To improve governance, pressure needs to be brought on the government by the general public, academia, NGOs and the press through increased public exposure of early system deterioration. These actions should be grounded in research that seeks to understand the complex causes of the problem, considering the whole scope of interlinked incentives and policies, before trying to tackle it.

Financial Engineering of Infrastructure Projects: The Concessional Mechanism

Purpose: The article considers the model of financial engineering, in which financial resources for an infrastructure project are formed based on syndicated loans. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study is based on modern concepts of uncertainty and risk management theories and the concept of digital economy. It includes a system and diagnostic analysis, methods of financial analytics as well as quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. Findings: Authors analyzed the investment in the infrastructure projects development in the Russian Federation. The railways’ export potential is analyzed and determined to depend on coal and container terminals. Authors highlighted the need for business consolidation and new infrastructure projects based on technologies of digitalization in the transport industry, reviewed the strategic importance of concession agreement for the construction of “Northern Latitudinal Railway”. Practical Implications: The research findings revealed that implementation of large infrastructure projects is capable to render breakthrough effect on GDP and economic growth rates of the Russian Federation. The adjusted experience could be introduced in the transport framework of the Russian Federation and abroad. Originality/Value: The main contribution of this study is in the highlighting features of concessional mechanism in the framework of large infrastructure projects.

Construction of CHP using public-private partnership

The paper presents the concept of public-private partnership that is a relatively innovative mechanics, which serves to combine the investments of the state and free enterprise in the implementation of large infrastructure projects. For Russia, it is strategically important and relevant to remain independent in the field of energy. The energy sector requires introduction of innovative facilities and modernization of facilities that are in operation A growing understanding of the urgency of the problem of budgetary investment volumes makes the state look for alternative financing mechanisms. The coordination of interests is an integral part of the interaction of the state and business in the framework of public-private partnership. The state is mainly interested in the implementation of strategic plans for the development of the energy field, as well as improving the quality and increasing the amount of services. The investors are interested in obtaining a stable refundability on investment. In these conditions, public-private partnership is the most relevant form of implementation of large investment projects in Russia. The ratio of costs and the results obtained expresses the concept of efficiency. However, public-private partnership projects are difficult to evaluate and ambiguous. For each of the participants, performance evaluation has a different nature and includes various indicators. During the life cycle of projects, the interaction conditions and risks that accompany the project may change.

An Agent-Based Model of Eurasia and Simulation of Consequences of Large Infrastructure Projects

The implementation of large infrastructure projects has a significant impact on the spatial location of production and change of trade flows. It causes the changes in migration flows and influences the socio-economic development of territories involved in the project. Preliminary assessment of the consequences of the implementation of similar projects requires the use of models. One of the modern directions of simulating is the agent-based approach. It allows to recreate a structure and behaviour of real socioeconomic systems in an artificial environment and to imitate their behaviour if external conditions change. The realism of the simulation of the main socio-economic processes determines the success of pursuing agent-based models to meet the challenges of forecasting. The article describes the construction of the agent-based model of the countries of Eurasia, imitating the basic processes of population movement in these countries, as well as the consequences of implementing large infrastructure projects as a result of the actions of many independent agents. There are two types of agents in the model: a) countries that are capable of lobbying for the implementation of profitable projects, and b) people who live in these countries, who create families, give birth to children and choose the type of activity and place of residence. In agents behaviour’s algorithm, we consider factors, revealed as a result of the research of actual migration processes in the countries of Eurasia. This has allowed to recreate in the model the imitation of people’s behaviour close to reality. The model construction was tested for two routes of New Silk Road. During the experiments, we monitored the changes of economic and demographic indicators for each participating country. Thus, for Russia the growth of total trade turnover (9.6 %) and net export (1.5 %) was observed. Participation in the project gave to China the growth 3.8 % and 7.7 %, respectively. The small countries (Georgia, Bulgaria) showed the reduction of migration outflow and improvement of age structure of the population. The model can be used for preliminary assessment of the consequences of the large infrastructure projects implementation.

Supercomputer Simulation of Social Processes: New Technologies

This article continues the work described in Vestnik RAN (no. 3, 2016) and in Herald of the RAS (no. 3, 2016). The previous articles analyzed the international experience in preparing and using agent-oriented models and technical groundwork for their implementation on supercomputers and described in detail the stages and methods of the efficient reflection of the computing core of a multiagent system on the architecture of a state-of-the-art supercomputer using the Supercomputer Technology for Agent-oRiented Simulation (STARS), developed by the authors. STARS was tested on two multiagent demographic models, built at the RAS Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, which differed in the level of detailization when simulating human reproductive behavior. This publication describes a technology of building multiagent simulations, making it possible to scale effectively models of this class up to 109 agents and to apply it when creating a large-scale agent model for Eurasian countries. The objective of the model is to simulate the key migration processes and economic dynamics of these countries, as well as the aftermath of the implementation of large infrastructure projects because of the activity of multiple independent agents. The model was tested on various supercomputers, allowing conclusions on their technical characteristics.

РЕАЛИЗАЦИЯ КРУПНЫХ ИНФРАСТРУКТУРНЫХ ПРОЕКТОВ КАК ЧАСТЬ СОВРЕМЕННОЙ ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОЙ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ РОССИИ

This article describes the place of large infrastructure projects in the system of the state industrial policy. The views on this issue of both the classics of economic and political thought and of contemporary researchers are analyzed. A brief analysis of the world experience in the implementation of large infrastructure projects and their impact on the industrial development is given. It is concluded that the implementation of large infrastructure projects is an important part of the state industrial policy.

Структурні зміни у світовій торгівлі металопродукцією та їх вплив на розвиток металургійної галузі України

The article analyzes the dynamics of structural changes in the world trade in metal products and finds out that the world market is uneven both geographically and by commodity structure and types of trade relations. At the same time, the analysis of world steel production shows that in the last quarter of XXI century, the center of global metallurgy shifted from developed to developing countries. Particularly notable in this context is the Asian region. The authors reveal that this shift is due to the innovative restructuring of the steel industry in the leading manufacturers, the impetus for which has been the desire of the industrialized countries for cleaner production. Data on the dynamics of international trade show that, over the past decade and a half, global steel exports increased almost 1.5 times. Despite the fact that the largest consumers of Ukrainian steel products during the period were the countries of the Asian region, the share of Ukraine's steel exports to these countries declined by 23.0 percentage points, primarily due to the complete reduction in exports to China. Summarizing the factors hindering the development of Ukraine's metallurgical industry allows defining the basic ones, which are the high dependence on external market and low domestic demand. In order to reduce the negative impact of the external factors on the development of Ukrainian domestic steel industry, the authors propose to focus on technological modernization of the steel plants and expansion of the domestic market through the development and implementation of large infrastructure projects.