Impending Election Research Articles

Thailand in 2022

Thailand’s military-aligned government saw its popularity plummet in polls throughout 2022. Yet former head of the armed forces and current prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha was resilient in the face of mass party defections, a falling-out with his fellow party leader and long-time friend Prawit Wongsuwon, a censure debate, and even a constitutional court case threatening to remove him from office. The mass street protests that were a constant feature of the previous three years evaporated as conservative forces used the controversial Section 112 Royal Defamation Law to silence the various movements’ leaders. Political attention was focused on the impending elections, which shook up the party system with rampant party mergers and switching. Meanwhile a return to the 2011 electoral rules fueled talk of another Pheu Thai landslide in the next elections. The economy began to improve with the relaxing of COVID rules and the return of tourism, throwing a lifeline to a rapidly sinking Prayut, who himself switched to a new political party before the year’s end.

Stare Decisisand the Electoral Connection: Do Retention Systems Affect Judges’ Deference to Precedent?

Using data from nearly 5,000 votes cast by more than 400 judges in courts of last resort from all 50 states, we investigate whether there is a relationship between a state’s judicial retention method and the likelihood that a judge votes to join a precedent-overturning majority. We find that relative to judges retained by institutions such as judicial commissions or state legislatures, those retained via either partisan or retention elections are significantly more likely to join majorities that overturn precedent. Most of this effect is due to behavior in high-profile cases that garner media attention. We find little evidence that an impending election moderates these effects. Finally, we find no evidence that judges retained via nonpartisan elections treat precedent differently than their institutionally retained colleagues.

An American looks at Europe, March 2017

This speculative essay considers, from an American perspective, the state of Europe in late March 2017. With the United States seeming to distance itself from Europe both militarily and economically in the wake of the election of Donald Trump, the EU finds itself facing new challenges. Will member states seek closer cooperation on border and security matters owing to their inability to make further progress toward economic integration? Will populist opposition to the EU intensify the crisis provoked by the British vote to leave? What implications do impending elections in France and Germany hold for the future of “ever closer union?”

Creating disorder

This paper investigates the effect of an upcoming election on disorderly behaviour in two Houses of Representatives: that of the Australian Federal Parliament and that of the New Zealand Parliament. Two hypotheses are tested. The first hypothesis is that, notwithstanding their common origins in the Westminster parliamentary tradition, there are significant genrelectal differences in the way the two Houses respond to the impending election. The second hypothesis is that both will respond by becoming increasingly disorderly. The locus for measuring disorderly conduct is taken from the Wednesday parliamentary Question Time for the year 2007 in the case of Australia and 2008 in the case of New Zealand. All instances of disorderly conduct were tracked and a month-by-month measure was made of each kind of disorder as indicated by Standing Orders. All responses of the Speaker to disorder were also logged. The research shows that both hypotheses are corroborated.

Burma’s “new” media face threats and attack: From prison to the newsstands and impending elections

Burma’s “new” media face threats and attack: From prison to the newsstands and impending elections

The Dynamic Electoral Connection: Symbolic Representation and the Effects of Elections on Public Perception of Elected Officials

Scholars have long recognized that elections, by themselves, are not enough to ensure the vitality of democratic governance (e.g., Dahl 1971). Sham elections in authoritarian states throughout the world (e.g., Cuba, Iraq) illustrate that Madison’s claim that frequent elections are essential, also requires meaningful choice to ensure that the government has ....an immediate dependence on, and an intimate sympathy with, the people.” (Federalist 52). For citizens’ voices to matter, they must be given a choice between candidates and they must have the capacity to evaluate them. In this paper, we investigate how elections affect the nature of non-policy representation. We focus on the behavior both of legislators and citizens to examine how, and to what extent, impending elections affect legislators’ non-policy behavior and citizens responses to such changes. To do so we employ text analysis to explain how citizens’ evaluations of their elected officials correspond with pursuit the re-election goal. We ultimately find mixed results on this idea, indicating a need for further study into the topic of election and citizens’ perceptions.

Good health systems, getting better

In view of the impending election, we asked representatives from the two major political parties for their policies on health. The Minister for Health and Ageing replies.

Taking leadership — tackling Australia's health challenges

In view of the impending election, we asked representatives from the two major political parties for their policies on health. The Shadow Minister for Health replies.

Mobilization, Demobilization and the Economy in American Elections

What motivates citizens to vote or abstain from voting? What determines vote choice? Models of turnout predominantly focus on a series of factors that affect perceptions of the benefits and costs of voting. The economy's influence on those perceptions has gone largely undeveloped. Models of vote choice routinely account for economic influences while ignoring turnout. This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the role of the economy as mobilizer and demobilizer. I argue that the economy has an impact on turnout decisions and that its impact is asymmetric. All else equal, the incumbent party is able to mobilize more supporters, relative to the non-incumbent party, in good economic times and more supporters are demobilized in adverse economic times. However, Democrats and Republicans are not sensitive to the same elements of economic performance. This is in part a function of the way in which the economy influences perceptions of the closeness of the impending election and of the candidates and their parties. Analysis of pooled data from ANES surveys for the twelve presidential elections from 1956 to 2000 confirms the validity of these arguments.

Sustaining Fixed Rates: The Political Economy of Currency Pegs in Latin America

Government exchange rate regime choice is constrained by both political and economic factors. One political factor is the role of special interests: the larger the tradable sectors exposed to international competition, the less likely is the maintenance of a fixed exchange rate regime. Another political factor is electoral: as an election approaches, the probability of the maintenance of a fixed exchange rate increases. We test these arguments with hazard models to analyze the duration dependence of Latin American exchange rate arrangements from 1960 to 1999. We find substantial empirical evidence for these propositions. Results are robust to the inclusion of a variety of other economic and political variables, to different time and country samples, and to different definitions of regime arrangement. Controlling for economic factors, a one percentage point increase in the size of the manufacturing sector is associated with a reduction of six months in the longevity of a country's currency peg. An impending election increases the conditional likelihood of staying on a peg by about 8 percent, while the aftershock of an election conversely increases the conditional probability of going off a peg by 4 percent.

Sustaining Fixed Rates: The Political Economy of Currency Pegs in Latin America

This paper studies Latin American exchange rate regimes since 1960. We model government exchange rate regime choice, constrained by politics. The model implies that the larger the tradable sectors exposed to international competition, the less likely is the maintenance of a fixed exchange rate regime. It also implies that the probability of the maintenance of a fixed exchange rate increases as an election approaches. We evaluate these implications with hazard models to analyze the duration dependence of Latin American exchange rate arrangements from 1960-1994. We find substantial empirical evidence to support the model. Results are robust to the inclusion of a variety of other economic and political variables, to different time and country samples, and to different definitions of regime arrangement. Controlling for economic factors, a one percentage point increase in the size of the manufacturing sector is associated with a reduction of six months in the longevity of a country's currency peg. An impending election increases the conditional likelihood of staying on a peg by about 8 percent, while the aftershock of an election conversely increases the conditional probability of going off a peg by 4 percent.

The Impending Elections: The Only Certainty is Uncertainty

The Impending Elections: The Only Certainty is Uncertainty

Papua New Guinea in 1986: Preelection Mobilization and Some Nationalism

I have argued elsewhere that the deposition of the Somare government on November 21, 1985, through a vote of no-confidence, was effected primarily to obtain for the winners, and simultaneously to deny to the losers, access to state resources and opportunities on the eve of an election.1 The impending 1987 national elections constituted the dominant factor in Papua New Guinea (PNG) domestic politics in 1986. The influence of the impending elections on the behavior of members of the government was noticeable in several areas. First, the rigorous exploitation of opportunities of office often placed the ministers in conflict of interest situations. Second, intracoalition rivalry and disagreements came to the fore. Prime Minister Pias Wingti had vowed to lift the standard of leadership and probity and was offered many opportunities to add to his reputation for courage and decisive leadership. There were both promise and risk in this for Wingti. He could improve the chances of his party, the People's Democratic Movement (PDM), in the 1987 elections by taking a high-minded, no-nonsense approach to the problem of enormous indiscipline in PNG public life. But he led a brittle, prickly coalition of five parties and several independent MP's, which make such an approach difficult. The composition of this coalition and the highly fragmented party system, in which there was not much regard by MP's for party discipline or loyalty, virtually guaranteed that Wingti would falter on insisting on

Voter Information Sources in a Nonpartisan Local Election

behavior or political participation of any type is in part a function of political stimuli available to citizen. Those who receive a greater number of stimuli are more likely to participate and to participate actively.' The reception of stimuli is a function of individual's perceptual screen. A number of studies have found that persons who have high exposure to one media generally have high exposure to several different kinds, and this continues throughout a political campaign.2 Those who are high in consumption of non-political stimuli tend to be high in consumption of political stimuli,3 and persons who are interested in politics are more attentive to political stimuli than those who are less interested.4 Individuals who are more exposed to communications media are more likely to be interested in politics, to vote, to have a party preference, to discuss politics, to have opinions on issues congruent with party stands, and to support candidate of their party. Exposure to media and interest in politics are mutually reinforcing, with interest leading to more exposure and increased exposure leading to greater political interest. The mass media perform function in a partisan election of assisting voters in cognitive process of associating party affiliation with candidate name, and also serve preliminary function of alerting voters to mere existence of an impending election.7 The absence of party as an active organization to provide a clue to alternatives available may cause voters in nonpartisan elections to seek other voting cues. Among voting cues are those provided by mass media or by organizations with a base in local community. Banfield and Wilson have stated that the readers of newspapers and members of civic associations, labor unions, women's clubs, and like often rely heavily upon an 'approved slate' in choosing among party-less and for most voters, meaningless, names on ballot.s

The London University Election

SINCE the appearance of last week's NATURE, the course which we ventured to foreshadow in reference to the impending election has fortunately been found practicable. It was announced on the 17th inst. that a committee of graduates unconnected with either of the two party organisations had invited Sir Michael Foster, K.C.B., to contest the seat, and that he had consented to be put in nomination. This fact ought to reassure all those graduates who desired to see the University do itself honour by selecting a fitting successor to Sir John Lubbock. And a passage in Dr. Benson's letter to the Times led to a general belief that at least one of the candidates now before the constituency would be willing to retire before a man of really distinguished position and qualifications. Unfortunately, however, it appears that up to the present time neither of them has evinced any readiness to withdraw his personal pretensions.