Impact Of Unconventional Monetary Policy Research Articles

Not All Shocks Are Created Equal: Assessing Heterogeneity in the Bank Lending Channel

We provide evidence that the yield impact of unconventional monetary policy is not a sufficient statistic to measure the strength of the bank lending channel of unconventional monetary policy. As a laboratory, we study three major positive events in the European sovereign debt crisis—the Greek debt restructuring (private sector involvement (PSI)), outright monetary transactions (OMT), and quantitative easing (QE)—using credit registry and security-level bank balance sheet data from Portugal, a country that was directly exposed to all three events. Even though the price of sovereign debt increased by substantially more after the PSI and OMT announcements, only QE led banks to reduce their net sovereign debt holdings and had statistically and economically significant effects on lending to firms and households. The differential effect on banks’ behavior reflects two forces. First, lower bank capitalization levels during the PSI and OMT episodes as well as disincentives to sell sovereign bonds because of their collateral value in the European Central Bank’s long-term refinancing operation facilities reduce the effectiveness of the recapitalization channel. Second, only QE involved direct asset purchases by the central bank and thereby induced a portfolio rebalancing channel from sovereign debt to loans. This paper was accepted by Victoria Ivashina, finance. Funding: The contribution by G. Nogueira to this paper has been prepared under the Lamfalussy Fellowship Program sponsored by the European Central Bank. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.00104 .

Green bond spread effect of unconventional monetary policy: Evidence from China

The development of green bond market is of great significance to the low-carbon transformation of China’s economy. However, green bond financing costs have remained high. The People’s Bank of China has guided the market to actively participate in green bond investment and financing activities by including green bonds in the scope of qualified collateral for monetary policy instruments. Against this backdrop, the role of unconventional monetary policy in reducing the cost of green financing is a critical topic being discussed in academia. In this study, we examine the cost impact of unconventional monetary policy on green financing, particularly green bonds. Specifically, using bond market data from 2016 to 2020, we construct a difference-in-difference (DID) model to empirically test the effect of China’s unconventional monetary policy on the financing cost of green bonds. The results indicate that unconventional monetary policy reduces the trade spread of green bonds compared with non-green bonds in the secondary market. However, the effect on the spreads of primary market green bonds is insignificant. Furthermore, through sub-sample tests based on ownership and bond ratings, this study finds that unconventional monetary policy has a more pronounced impact on the transaction spreads of AA+ and AA rated green bonds, green bonds issued by state-owned enterprises, large-scale green bonds, as well as long-term green bonds in the secondary market. Based on the above conclusions, we put forward policy suggestions to improve the top-level design of green bond market and activate the enthusiasm of bond trading from two aspects: expanding the scope of green bond collateral of central bank lending programs and enhancing the issuance advantages of green bond in the primary market.

The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on the unemployment rate in the US

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the Federal Reserve's conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks on the US unemployment rate.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ a unified time-varying framework to an extensive data set from 1960 to 2019.FindingsThe authors find that both conventional and unconventional monetary policy influence the unemployment rate, but the effects of unconventional monetary policy vary greatly during the first, second and third rounds of quantitative easing (dubbed QE1, QE2 and QE3, respectively). It significantly influenced the unemployment rate in QE3. However, the effects are less persistent than the effects of conventional monetary policy shocks. The impact of unconventional monetary policy transmits to the real economy through conventional interest rates, exchange rates and asset price channels. The responses of unemployment rate are smaller during QE1 and QE2 due to the rise in inflation uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty.Originality/valueThe impact of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy shocks on the US unemployment rate during QE1, QE2 and QE3 is time-varying. It is explained by inflation uncertainty and real option channels.

Measuring The Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policies on The Us Banking and Bond Markets At The Lower Bound

Measuring The Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policies on The Us Banking and Bond Markets At The Lower Bound

Re-examining agricultural output-economic growth nexus in Nigeria: New insights from Dynamic ARDL and Kernel-based Regularized Least Squares

The role of agriculture in reforming social and economic framework of an economy cannot be over-emphasized. It is against this backdrop, this study re-investigate the impact of agricultural output on real output in Nigeria for the period 1981-2019, while controlling for manufacturing output, broad money supply, real effective exchange rate and inflation. We employ a dynamic simulated autoregressive distributed lag model developed by Jordan and Philips (2018) and the Kernel-based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) proposed by Hainmueller and Hazlett (2014) with useful application in the determination of causal-effect relationship using machine-learning algorithm to implement the pointwise derivatives. Empirical result show that, all regressors except conventional money supply are insignificant in the short-run, while an increasing effect of agricultural output and decreasing effect of unconventional monetary policy on economic growth is reported in the long run. Using the KRLS, we find that, higher agricultural output, increase economic growth at a higher level to a threshold where decreasing marginal returns take place. This indicate that increase in agricultural output is not always growth stimulating. Thus, we are of the opinion that, policymakers in formulating agricultural policy should exercise caution in advocating for increase in agricultural output beyond what is normal for growth while the negative impact of unconventional monetary policy on economic growth calls for caution by the monetary authority.

SPILLOVER EFFECTS OF QUANTITATIVE EASING ON EXPORTS IN EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES

The impact of unconventional monetary policies adopted by advanced economies in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis has had far reaching implications for global economic conditions. Although several transmission channels of quantitative easing to financial market and exchange rate conditions have been identified, there is a lack of empirical investigation on the spillover effects to exports for emerging market economies. The research presented in this paper focuses on assessing the asymmetric transmission of unconventional monetary policy in the US on exports for fifteen emerging market economies. Employing the panel ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model, we find that the increase in large-scale asset purchases in the US corresponds to a decline in exports in the emerging market economies. The effect on exports is more sizable in the Fragile Five than in the other 10 emerging markets. Finally, although monetary policy shocks from the US transmit to impact trade in emerging markets, the effect is asymmetric. Specifically, the tapering of the quantitative easing does not have a statistically significant effect on exports.

Monetary Policy Announcement and Stock Returns: Evidence From Long-Term Repo Operations in India

This paper investigates the impact of unconventional monetary policy on stock returns using the Reserve Bank of India’s long-term repo operations (LTROs). We provide evidence that firms listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange register higher returns on the days of LTRO announcements. We also find the stock returns of bank-dependent and financially constrained firms to be relatively higher on the days of announcements.

Dynamic Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy on International REITs

In this paper, we estimate the dynamic impact of unconventional monetary policy in the US on international REITs. Unlike existing studies which are limited to conventional policy tools and undertake a static approach, we use an event study approach and estimate a time-varying parameter model to investigate the dynamic impact of forward guidance (FG) and large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) shocks on the international REIT returns. We also compare the effects of these unconventional tools with the effects of conventional federal funds rate (FFR) shocks. The results show that the response of international REITs to unconventional policy shocks depends on the time under consideration. FG shocks have greater time-variation in the impact on REIT returns compared to LSAP shocks, particularly with Australia, Belgium, and the US REIT markets. Furthermore, FG shocks broadly have a negative impact on REITs while the results for LSAP effects are mixed. We also find that in most countries, REITs time-varying response of FG shocks is related to changes in gold prices and financial conditions.

The Impact of Quantitative Easing on Inequality in Japan

This paper studies the distributional impact of unconventional monetary policy in Japan after the 2008 financial crisis. I use a structural vector autoregression model to estimate the impact of quantitative easing on income inequality. The results show that quantitative easing has increased inequality in Japan. However, the estimated magnitude of this effect greatly depends on which inequality variable is used.

Does one (Unconventional) Size Fit All? Effects of the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies on the Euro Area Economies

This paper aims at assessing the macroeconomic impact of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) that the ECB has put in place in the euro area after the 2007 financial crisis. With this purpose, we first document how the relative importance of the main transmission channels of such measures has changed over time, with the portfolio rebalancing being generally more impactful than the signaling channel after the “Whatever it takes” speech in July 2012. However, we also provide evidence of a great degree of heterogeneity across core and peripheral economies, as well as over time. We then adopt a time-varying SVAR with stochastic volatility to account for such heterogeneity, by identifying UMP shocks via “dynamic” sign restrictions. By means of counterfactual experiments, we provide evidence of how a different stance on the part of the ECB would have led to a significantly different economic performance of euro area economies. For instance, if the ECB had not put in place the measures adopted between 2014 and 2017, annual output growth would have been, on average, 0.67 percentage points lower in peripheral countries.

Does Unconventional Monetary Policy Affect Bank Profitability in the Euro Area?

This paper investigates the impact of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) on bank profitability in the euro area, over the period 2007-2019.In particular, through multiple regression models, we analyze the relationship between the UMP variables (Longer-term refinancing operations and Securities held for monetary policy purposes) and the main bank profitability variables used in the literature (Return on average equity, Return on average assets and Net interest margin).This work is original compared to recent studies on the subject as it considers the impact of UMP expressed in terms of volumes rather than in terms of interest rates on bank profitability variables.Our results suggest that the UMP adopted by the Eurosystem over the period considered is negatively associated with bank profitability expressed by the Return on average equity and the Return on average asset. By contrast, monetary policy measures do not seem to have had any effect on the Net interest margin.

The Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policies on the Stocks of Bank Deposits: Evidence at an Aggregate Level in the Euro Area

Due to the severity and persistence of the global financial crisis started in 2007, central banks all over the world have adopted Unconventional Monetary Policies (UMPs), including negative policy rates, longer-term refinancing operations and large-scale purchases of financial assets. In this study, by referring to a time-series regression analysis with Newey-West correction, we evaluate the impact of UMPs implemented by the Eurosystem over the period 2008-2019 on the stocks of euro area banks’ deposit from households and non-financial corporations. The analysis of the effects of UMPs on the stocks of banks’ deposit represents a particularly innovative aspect of this research, where most of the scientific literature focuses on deposit interest rates. Our results suggest that the UMPs conducted by the Eurosystem have had a significant positive impact on euro area bank deposits, with particular reference to the relationship between Longer-term refinancing operations and Household overnight deposits, as well as between Securities held for monetary policy purposes and deposits from Households (total deposits) and from Corporates (overnight deposits).

Breaking the zero lower bound period: The shift across two unconventional policies

The impact of unconventional monetary policies on asset prices can be broken into two distinct time periods in the US. While the impact of large-scale asset purchases was substantial on stock prices and the exchange rate before September 2011, their impact almost fully disappears afterward. On the contrary, the effects of forward guidance on asset prices grow substantially after this date. This shift could be explained by the severe illiquidity in financial markets before September 2011 and the Federal Reserve’s explicit communication regarding the initial policy rate hike afterward.

The impact of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area. Structural and scenario analysis from a Bayesian VAR

AbstractThis paper employs a medium scale Bayesian VAR model to provide a rich picture of the transmission of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) shocks in various dimensions of the economy, and to shed light on the appropriate policy mix that the central bank could adopt to fulfil its price stability mandate. We show that UMP shocks have a significant positive impact on both economic activity and inflation; stem financial market stress episodes and boost economic sentiment. Additionally, several channels seem to have been activated, including the exchange rate, inflation expectations and the bank lending channel. Counterfactual policy analysis suggests that a policy mix that combines the use of permanently negative interest rates with a balance sheet expansion at a steady pace over a long period, could bring inflation closer to the target. Alternative policy scenarios that, either give more weight on the purchases during the first months or, terminate asset purchases too early, would fail to keep inflation on track to meet its target.

Unconventional monetary policy in the Euro Area: Shadow rate and light effets

We assess transmission mechanisms and the macroeconomic impact of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) in the Euro Area. We estimate a FAVAR model and use a shadow rate to measure the stance of the monetary policy. The ECB's UMP measures adopted at the zero lower bound (ZLB) have sustained the real economy. For instance, in 2016, without UMP, investment would have been lower by 9%, consumption lower by 2% and the unemployment rate higher by 0.9%. However, the impact of unconventional monetary shocks is weaker and less persistent than those emanating from conventional monetary policy. Furthermore, the difference in the transmission of monetary policies between countries of the Euro Area was more pronounced during the period 2009-2016. This suggests that the ZLB has decreased the efficiency of monetary policy and accentuated the heterogeneity of the Euro Area.

The Impact of Heterogeneous Unconventional Monetary Policies on Market Uncertainty

This article analyzes the impact of the unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) of four major central banks (the Fed, ECB, BoE and BOJ) on market uncertainty. We exploit the heterogeneity of different UMP actions to disentangle their influence on reducing the ex ante perception of extreme events (tail risks) using the information contained in risk-neutral densities from the most liquid stock index options. The empirical findings show that the announcement of UMPs reduces the risk-neutral probability of extreme events across various horizons and thresholds, supporting the hypothesis of the risk-taking channel. The most effective measures are the forward guidance and liquidity actions, rather than asset purchases. Interestingly, foreign UMP actions also prove to be significant variables affecting domestic tail risks, mainly at longer horizons. These results reveal an original cross-border effect of foreign UMPs on domestic tail risks. Finally, the dynamics of the UMPs are captured by a structural model that confirms a transitory impact of UMPs on market tail risk perceptions.

Breaking the Zero Lower Bound Period: The Shift Across Two Unconventional Policies

The impact of unconventional monetary policies on asset prices can be broken into two distinct time periods in the US. While the impact of large-scale asset purchases was substantial on stock prices and the exchange rate before September 2011, their impact almost fully disappears afterward. On the contrary, the effects of forward guidance on asset prices grow substantially after this date. This shift could be explained by the severe illiquidity in financial markets before September 2011 and the Federal Reserve’s explicit communication regarding the initial policy rate hike afterward.

Consumption and the interest rate – A changing dynamic?

ABSTRACT This article addresses the question of whether the relation between the short interest rate and consumption growth has been stable over the financial crisis and the ensuing period of unconventional monetary policy. The question is addressed by assessing models using constant or drifting parameters as well as models with or without stochastic volatility in a Bayesian VAR framework, based on data from the USA and Sweden. According to the results, the response of interest rates to shocks in consumption growth has decreased for both countries, which could be because the central banks were constrained by the zero lower bound. When shadow rates are used to study the impact of unconventional monetary policy the results suggest that the Federal Reserve successfully maintained an active monetary policy in spite of the zero lower bound. The responsiveness of the Riksbank, on the other hand, decreases in face of the zero lower bound even when unconventional monetary policy is considered. The response of consumption growth to short interest rates is best modelled as constant over the period. Finally, results support the inclusion of stochastic volatility throughout estimations.

Unconventional Monetary Policy, Bank Lending, and Security Holdings: The Yield-Induced Portfolio-Rebalancing Channel

AbstractThis article studies the impact of unconventional monetary policy on bank lending and security holdings. I exploit granular security register data and use a difference- in-differences regression setup to provide evidence for a yield-induced portfolio rebalancing: Banks experiencing large average yield declines in their securities portfolio, induced by unconventional monetary policy, increase their real-sector lending more strongly relative to other banks. The effect is stronger for banks facing many reinvestment decisions. Moreover, I find that banks with large yield declines reduce their government bond holdings and sell securities bought under the asset-purchase program of the European Central Bank (ECB).

The Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Gendered Wealth Inequality

Unconventional monetary policy was implemented as a result of the financial crisis and resulted in rising asset prices in the stock markets. While the increase in asset prices is not exclusively triggered by unconventional monetary policy, central bankers accept that unconventional monetary policy has resulted in distributional effects on wealth, and that these are not negligible. What is missing are studies analyzing whether these non-standard monetary policies have different distributional effects on women and men. The intent of the paper is to interrogate whether unconventional monetary policy of central banks has a gender bias that operates in favor of men as gender and against women as gender. Relying on insights from feminist economics, the paper uses the results of the ECB Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) of 62,000 household across 15 euro-area countries. While the results are tentative, they show an asymmetric distributional gendered impact. Since the rich own more assets than the poor, and since monetary easing works in part by raising asset prices, these unconventional policies may unintentionally benefit the wealthier quintile (on average more male) at the expense of the poorer strata of society (on average more female).