Impact Of Mitigation Measures Research Articles

Simulation and Management Impact Evaluation of Debris Flow in Dashiling Gully Based on FLO-2D Modeling

Dashiling Gully, located in Miyun District, Beijing, exhibits a high susceptibility to debris flow due to its unique geological and topographical characteristics. The area is characterized by well-developed rock joints and fissures, intense weathering, a steep gradient, and a constricted gully morphology. These factors contribute to the accumulation of surface water and loose sediment, significantly increasing the risk of debris flow events. Following a comprehensive field geological investigation of Dashiling Gully, key parameters for simulation were obtained, including fluid weight, volume concentration, and rainfall. The formation and development conditions of potential mudslides were analyzed, and numerical simulations were conducted using FLO-2D software (version 2009) to assess scenarios with rainfall probabilities of 1 in 30, 50, and 100 years. The simulations accurately reconstructed the movement velocity, deposition depth, and other critical movement characteristics of mudslides under each rainfall scenario. Using ArcGIS, pre- and post-treatment hazard zoning maps were generated for Dashiling Gully. Furthermore, the efficacy of implementing a retaining wall as a mitigation measure was evaluated through additional numerical simulations. The results indicated that mudslide velocities ranged from 0 to 3 m/s, with deposition depths primarily between 0 and 3 m. The maximum recorded velocity reached 3.5 m/s, corresponding to a peak deposition depth of 4.31 m. Following the implementation of the retaining wall, the maximum deposition depth significantly decreased to 1.9 m, and high-risk zones were eliminated, demonstrating the intervention’s effectiveness. This study provides a rigorous evaluation of mudslide movement characteristics and the impact of mitigation measures within Dashiling Gully. The findings offer valuable insights and serve as a reference for forecasting and mitigating similar mudslide events triggered by heavy rainfall in gully mudslides.

TSoSRA: A task-oriented resilience assessment framework for system-of-systems

System-of-systems (SoS) are inevitably subject to disturbances during task execution, and resilience is a key factor for SoS damage and recovery. System-of-systems resilience (SoSR) assessment holds significant value in optimizing SoS architecture and completing tasks. However, identifying the most resilient SoS among different ones for the same task is a basic but challenging question. This paper proposes a task-oriented SoSR assessment framework (TSoSRA) to identify the most resilient SoS. First, we use a heterogeneous information network and meta-path to describe a SoS network architecture composed of different subsystems and the SoS performance model is developed, based on node and link quality. Based on this model, a system-of-system resilience metric (SoSRM) is proposed to describe the ability of the SoS to recover quickly dealing with disruption. Then, we extend further this metric to consider the impact of mitigation measures that exist in practical scenarios. Finally, we demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of TSoSRA through a case study, offering valuable insights to enhance network security, improve SoS reliability and design a more resilient SoS.

Model Adaptation and Validation for Estimating Methane and Ammonia Emissions from Fattening Pig Houses: Effect of Manure Management System.

This paper describes a model for the prediction of methane and ammonia emissions from fattening pig houses. This model was validated with continuous and discrete measurements using a reference method from two manure management systems (MMS): long storage (LS) in deep pits and short storage (SS) by daily flushing of a shallow pit with sloped walls and partial manure dilution. The average calculated methane and ammonia emissions corresponded well with the measured values. Based on the calculated and measured results, the average calculated CH4 emission (18.5 and 4.3 kg yr-1 per pig place) was in between the means from the continuous data from sensors (15.9 and 5.6 kg yr-1 per pig place) and the means from the discrete measurements using the reference method (22.0 and 3.1 kg yr-1 per pig place) for the LS and SS systems, respectively. The average calculated NH3 emission (2.6 and 1.4 kg yr-1 per pig place) corresponded well with the continuous data (2.6 and 1.2 kg yr-1 per pig place) and the discrete measurements using the reference method (2.7 and 1.0 kg yr-1 per pig place) from LS and SS, respectively. This model was able to predict the reduction potential for methane and ammonia emissions by the application of mitigation options. Furthermore, this model can be utilized as a predictive tool, enabling timely actions to be taken based on the emission prediction. The upgraded model with robust calculation rules, extensive validations, and a simplified interface can be a useful tool to assess the current situation and the impact of mitigation measures at the farm level.

Analysis of metapopulation models of the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, renewal equation estimates of time-varying effective reproduction numbers were useful to policymakers in evaluating the need for and impact of mitigation measures. Our objective here is to illustrate the utility of mechanistic expressions for the basic and effective (or intrinsic and realized) reproduction numbers, [Formula: see text] and related quantities derived from a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model including features of COVID-19 that might affect transmission of SARS-CoV-2, including asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, and symptomatic infections, with which people may be hospitalized. Expressions from homogeneous host population models can be analyzed to determine the effort needed to reduce [Formula: see text] from [Formula: see text] to 1 and contributions of modeled mitigation measures. Our model is stratified by age, 0-4, 5-9, …, 75+ years, and location, the 50 states plus District of Columbia. Expressions from such heterogeneous host population models include subpopulation reproduction numbers, contributions from the above-mentioned infectious states, metapopulation numbers, subpopulation contributions, and equilibrium prevalence. While the population-immunity at which [Formula: see text] has captured the popular imagination, the metapopulation [Formula: see text] could be attained in an infinite number of ways even if only one intervention (e.g., vaccination) were capable of reducing [Formula: see text] However, gradients of expressions derived from heterogeneous host population models,[Formula: see text] can be evaluated to identify optimal allocations of limited resources among subpopulations. We illustrate the utility of such analytical results by simulating two hypothetical vaccination strategies, one uniform and other indicated by [Formula: see text] as well as the actual program estimated from one of the CDC's nationwide seroprevalence surveys conducted from mid-summer 2020 through the end of 2021.

Equity in provision and access to obstetric anaesthesia care in Nigeria

Nigeria has a high maternal mortality rate, yet there is wide variation in the proportion of births by caesarean section between zones, states, and cities within Nigeria. This review examines the pattern of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of mitigation measures on women’s health in Nigeria. The combined impact of COVID-19 and conflicts on maternal healthcare and access to obstetric care, as well as the availability of obstetric anaesthesia in Nigeria, are discussed. There is a vicious cycle, intensified by unwanted pregnancy, abortion, and preventable maternal death.

The impact of mitigation measures against COVID-19 on the incidence of pertussis and its evaluation using the ARIMA model

The aim of the study was to determine the impact of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mitigation measures on the spread of pertussis and identify which measures were most effective in preventing the spread of this disease. In order to analyze pertussis incidence dynamics in Moscow (Russian Federation), the quasiexperimental interrupted time series (ITS) approach was used. The mathematical modeling of the incidence time series was conducted with regression with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) errors. COVID-19 mitigation measures reduced the incidence of pertussis infection compared with the predicted incidence without restrictive measures of 42.7 %. Our analysis has shown that the most efficient COVID-19 mitigation measures influencing pertussis incidence were «restriction of mass events», «self-isolation regime for the elderly persons over 65 years of age and persons with chronic diseases» and «transfer to remote work of at least 30 % of the total number of employees». The obtained results of this research can be used for the selection of the most efficient mitigation measures to reduce the incidence and limit the spread of pertussis outbreaks.

Workplace exposures associated with COVID-19: evidence from a case-control study with multiple sampling periods in England, August-October 2020.

We investigated risk factors associated with COVID-19 by conducting a retrospective, frequency-matched case-control study, with three sampling periods (August-October 2020). We compared cases completing routine contact tracing to asymptomatic population controls. Multivariable analyses estimated adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for non-household community settings. Meta-analyses using random effects provided pooled odds ratios (pORs). Working in healthcare (pOR 2.87; aORs 2.72, 2.81, 3.08, for study periods 1-3 respectively), social care (pOR 4.15; aORs 2.46, 5.06, 5.41, for study periods 1-3 respectively) or hospitality (pOR 2.36; aORs 2.01, 2.54, 2.63, for study periods 1-3 respectively) were associated with increased odds of being a COVID-19 case. Additionally, working in bars, pubs and restaurants, warehouse settings, construction, educational settings were significantly associated. While definitively determining where transmission occurs is impossible, we provide evidence that in certain sectors, the impact of mitigation measures may only be partial and reinforcement of measures should be considered in these settings.

861. Impact of COVID-19 Mitigation Measures on PrEP Care at a Safety Net Health System in Atlanta

BackgroundThe Grady Health System pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) program modified its care practices to accommodate COVID-19 mitigation measures. Changes enacted included: transition to telemedicine visits, medication mail delivery, and flexible timing of quarterly laboratory testing. These were implemented in March 2020 and remain in place presently. This study aimed to evaluate patients’ long-term acceptability of these modifications and to assess their impact on PrEP care. MethodsThis was a cross-sectional study in a convenience sample of PrEP patients, ages 18 and older, at an urban clinic in Atlanta. They were invited to complete a survey between December 2020 and April 2021. The survey assessed the impact of mitigation measures on overall PrEP care, follow up visits, medication access, and ability to complete laboratory testing. It also evaluated the usability, quality, satisfaction, and concerns with telemedicine. Data were examined using median and interquartile ranges, and proportions. ResultsOf 145 patients contacted, 61 completed the survey (median age 33 years, 72% Black, 75% cisgender men, 15% transgender women). Most participants did not report interruptions in their PrEP care (72%) or follow up visits (74%). Most found it easy to access medications (82%), as participants’ report of medication mail delivery usage increased from 57% (pre-pandemic) to 73% (in-pandemic period). Interruptions in completing quarterly labs were more frequently reported, as only 62% found this to be easy. Overall, 89% reported using telemedicine; telephone call was the most used method (78%). Telemedicine users’ ratings for quality, usability, and satisfaction of telemedicine was high (median score: 6/7) and nearly all users (97%) reported no concerns about its continued use for PrEP care. A few participants (5%) raised concerns about loss of telephone services due to financial issues, impacting their ability to complete telemedicine visits. ConclusionPrEP care at an urban clinic was well- maintained despite COVID-19 mitigation measures. Telemedicine was found to be acceptable and usable by surveyed participants. Future research on widescale implementation of telemedicine for PrEP care is neededDisclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

Effects of changes in temperature on Zika dynamics and control.

When a rare pathogen emerges to cause a pandemic, it is critical to understand its dynamics and the impact of mitigation measures. We use experimental data to parametrize a temperature-dependent model of Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission dynamics and analyse the effects of temperature variability and control-related parameters on the basic reproduction number (R0) and the final epidemic size of ZIKV. Sensitivity analyses show that these two metrics are largely driven by different parameters, with the exception of temperature, which is the dominant driver of epidemic dynamics in the models. Our R0 estimate has a single optimum temperature (≈30°C), comparable to other published results (≈29°C). However, the final epidemic size is maximized across a wider temperature range, from 24 to 36°C. The models indicate that ZIKV is highly sensitive to seasonal temperature variation. For example, although the model predicts that ZIKV transmission cannot occur at a constant temperature below 23°C (≈ average annual temperature of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), the model predicts substantial epidemics for areas with a mean temperature of 20°C if there is seasonal variation of 10°C (≈ average annual temperature of Tampa, Florida). This suggests that the geographical range of ZIKV is wider than indicated from static R0 models, underscoring the importance of climate dynamics and variation in the context of broader climate change on emerging infectious diseases.

Upper gastrointestinal stenting during the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak: impact of mitigation measures and risk of contamination for patients and staff.

Background and study aims The impact of COVID-19 mitigation measures on stent placement procedures has not yet been reported. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of COVID-19 mitigation measures on upper stenting during SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, as well as the use of personal protection equipment (PPE) and risk of contamination for patients and staff. Patients and methods This was a multicenter, retrospective study of consecutive patients who underwent stent placement for upper gastrointestinal obstruction during the second half of SARS-CoV-2 outbreak period in comparison to same period one year before. Results A total of 29 stents were placed for upper gastrointestinal obstruction during the study period, corresponding to an increase of 241 % comparing to the same period in 2019 (n = 12). No significant major differences were found between the two time periods regarding patients’ baseline characteristics, post-stenting management and number of staff involved in stent placement. Fellows’ involvement was significantly lower in 2020 compared to 2019 (21 % vs 67 %; P = 0.01). The majority of procedures were performed using FFP2 /FFP3 mask (76 %), protective eyewear (86 %), two pairs of gloves (65 %), hairnet (76 %) and full disposable gowns (90 %). One patient tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 after the procedure. None of the medical staff involved in stenting procedures developed COVID-19 14 days after procedure. Conclusion Upper gastrointestinal stenting increased during the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak period, which could be related to yearly variation on the number of procedures or reflect a change of oncologic treatment practice during COVID times.

Impact of mitigation measures on the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile: preliminary data for the period April 14 to May 14

To model disease progression, healthcare demand and case fatality rate attributed to COVID-19 pandemic that may occur in Chile in 1-month time, by simulating different scenarios according to diverse mitigation measures hypothetically implemented. Furthermore, we aimed to estimate the same outcomes assuming that 70% of the population will be infected by SARS-CoV-2, with no time limit assumption. We based on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Chile up to April 14th 2020 (8 273 cases and 94 deaths). For the simulated scenarios we assumed basic reproduction numbers ranging from R0=2.5 to R0=1.5. The estimation of the number of patients that would require intensive care and the age-specific case fatality rate were based on data provided by the Imperial College of London and the Instituto Superiore di Sanità en Italia. If no mitigation measures were applied (R0=2.5), by May 25, Chile would have 2 019 775 cases and 15 068 deaths. If mitigations measures were implemented to decrease R0 to 1.5 (early detection of cases, quarantine, social distancing of elderly), the number of cases and deaths would importantly decrease. Nonetheless, the demand for in-hospital care including intensive care would exceed the available resources. Our age-specific analysis showed that population over 60 years are at higher risk of needing intensive care and death. Our evidence supports the mitigation measures implemented by the Chilean government. Nevertheless, more stringent measures are needed to prevent the health care system's collapse due to shortfall of resources to confront the COVID-19 pandemic.

Flash flood simulations for an Egyptian city - mitigation measures and impact of infiltration

ABSTRACT Within this work, the impact of mitigation measures and infiltration on flash floods is investigated by using a 2D robust shallow water model including infiltration with the Green-Ampt model. The results show the combined effects of infiltration and mitigation measures as well as the effectiveness of bypass channels in addition to retention basins. Retention basins at appropriate locations could reduce the maximum water depth at critical locations by 23%, while the additional implementation of drainage channels lead to a reduction of 75%, considering also infiltration lead to a further reduction of 97%. If infiltration was considered without mitigation measures, the peak water depth was reduced by 67%. For an exceptional extreme event the measures lead to a reduction of 73% at some locations, while at other locations the overflow from retention basins due to overstraining generated even higher inundations with an increase of 58%.

In-stream microhabitat mosaic depicts the success of mitigation measures and controls the Ecological Potential of benthic communities in heavily modified rivers

The positive effect of mitigation measures on in-stream habitat conditions and the benthic community is recognised. In heavily modified rivers, though, the response of aquatic invertebrates to mitigation measures and habitat mosaic changes is scarcely documented.We used non-metric multidimensional scaling to explore the benthic community of leveed rivers in the agricultural lowlands of Northern Italy. The relevance of in-stream substrate microhabitat for the benthic community was assessed, together with the impact of mitigation measures. We proposed a straightforward approach to quantify similarity of microhabitat mosaic between sites testing its statistical significance based on Bayesian statistics. We hypothesised that changes of microhabitat mosaic would reflect the level of implementation of mitigation measures and benthic invertebrates would respond accordingly. Alpha, beta diversity and benthic metrics used to classify ecological status/potential were considered and their variation tested against different levels of measure implementation. Lastly, ecological potential classification was paralleled to both the level of measure implementation and habitat attributes.The microhabitats found at sites where measures were fully implemented differed from those observed elsewhere and they clearly mirrored morphological alteration and mitigation measures. Moreover, alongside morphological alteration, microhabitat diversity and mosaic were the main factors for benthic community structure. While benthic beta diversity strictly reflected microhabitat diversity, alpha diversity and ecological status metrics copied the mosaic gradient. Microhabitat attributes and most benthic metrics showed significant changes following measure implementation and they were accompanied by a gradual shift in ecological potential classes.We demonstrated the importance of in-stream substrate microhabitats as a bridge between mitigation measures and the benthic community. Particularly when ecological classification is under focus, microhabitat mosaic should be evaluated for achieving a better understanding of biological responses. The huge amount of data available worldwide could support a straightforward use of river mosaic information for river management.

An innovative implementation of LCA within the EIA procedure: Lessons learned from two Wastewater Treatment Plant case studies

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has been identified in the literature as a promising tool to increase the performance of environmental assessments at different steps in the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) procedure. However, few publications have proposed a methodology for an extensive integration, and none have compared the results with existing EIA conclusions without LCA. This paper proposes a comprehensive operational methodology for implementing an LCA within an EIA. Based on a literature review, we identified four EIA steps that could theoretically benefit from LCA implementation, i.e., (a) the environmental comparison of alternatives, (b) the identification of key impacts, (c) the impact assessment, and (d) the impact of mitigation measures. For each of these steps, an LCA was implemented with specific goal and scope definitions that resulted in a specific set of indicators. This approach has been implemented in two contrasting Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP) projects and compared to existing EIA studies. The results showed that the two procedures, i.e., EIAs with or without inputs from LCA, led to different conclusions. The environmental assessments of alternatives and mitigation measures were not carried out in the original studies and showed that other less polluting technologies could have been chosen. Regarding the scoping step, the selected environmental concerns were essentially different. Global impacts such as climate change or natural resource depletion were not taken into account in the original EIA studies. Impacts other than those occurring on the project site (off-site impacts) were not assessed, either. All these impacts can be significant compared to those initially considered. On the other hand, unlike current LCA applications, EIAs usually address natural and technological risks and neighbourhood disturbances such as noises or odours, which are very important for the public acceptability of projects. Regarding the impact assessment, even if the conclusions of the EIAs with or without LCA were partially common for local on-site impacts, LCA gives crucial additional information on global and off-site impacts and highlights the processes responsible for them. Finally, for all EIA steps investigated, interest in LCA was demonstrated for both WWTP case studies. The feasibility in terms of skills, time and cost of such implementation has also been assessed.

Safety Culture: Examination of Safety Attitudes Across Transportation Modes

Transportation safety is a top priority for all agencies, although traffic fatalities remain a leading cause of death in many age groups. One traditional approach to safety is a multifaceted strategy that addresses the 4 E’s: education, enforcement, engineering, and emergency response. In recent years, some agencies have also undertaken collaborative initiatives such as Toward Zero Death programs in an effort to increase safety. Although roadway fatalities have decreased, there is still opportunity for improvement. Many research studies have identified factors that correlated with roadway crashes (e.g., geometric factors) and have documented the impact of mitigation measures, such as roadway improvements, policy changes (e.g., speed limits), and safety programs (e.g., distracted driving campaigns). Although crashes may be considered an unavoidable consequence of mobility, fatality rates vary dramatically by transportation mode, and the impressive safety record in aviation suggests that fatalities should not be considered inevitable. This research explores safety attitudes and practices for young adults in the aviation and roadway sectors, examines differences in safety training for roadways and aviation that may contribute to a positive safety culture, and identifies practices in aviation that may be beneficial in the roadway sector. In addition to providing a benchmark for the current safety culture and comparing attitudes and practices in the roadway and aviation environments, this research lays a foundation to develop best practices that will contribute to a positive safety culture, improve safety, and reduce the costs associated with roadway crashes.

Life in the open ocean: seasonal migration and diel diving behaviour of Southern Hemisphere porbeagle sharks (Lamna nasus)

A wide range of pelagic predators survive in the open ocean, yet little is known about how they use that environment. Much of the current information on these species comes from studies in shelf waters, and it is not clear how representative the results are of their oceanic lifestyle. We used pop-up satellite tags to explore the horizontal and vertical use of the open ocean by porbeagle sharks (Lamna nasus) in the south-west Pacific Ocean and to identify possible mitigation measures to reduce their bycatch in tuna longline fisheries. Ten porbeagle sharks were tracked in waters around New Zealand for 72–300 days (median 221 days). Sharks made horizontal movements of hundreds to thousands of kilometres, with a maximum estimated track length of almost 10,000 km. Mature females made seasonal latitudinal migrations from ~46–48°S in summer to ~35–38°S during winter–spring, where they are hypothesised to give birth to pups. Porbeagle sharks exhibited diel vertical migration, diving deeper during the day than at night. Dives generally began at dawn and finished at dusk and lasted 11–15 h depending on day length. Porbeagles feed mainly on mesopelagic fish and squid and appear to forage in the vertically migrating deep scattering layer. All sharks dived to at least 600 m with a maximum recorded depth of 1024 m. During the day, most of their time was spent at depths of 200–600 m in the open ocean. Porbeagle shark bycatch could be substantially reduced by limiting longline fishing to daylight hours when they are too deep to be caught. However, longliners currently set mainly at night to avoid seabird bycatch, which would increase unless other mitigation measures were implemented to protect them. A review of factors affecting the bycatch of various species, and the impact of mitigation measures on catches of target species, is required to identify an appropriate suite of management measures.

The German Environmental Specimen Bank: Human Exposure to Perfluoroalkyl Substances – Time Trends and Inter-individual Variation

Background and aimsTo assess the impact of mitigation measures on the human exposure to perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and to elucidate gender and other inter-individual differences, PFAS levels ...

Trade-off between road avoidance and attraction by roadside salt pools in moose: An agent-based model to assess measures for reducing moose-vehicle collisions

Moose-vehicle collisions are a frequent traffic-safety issue, particularly in northern regions where moose are attracted to the near-road areas because they can consume sodium from de-icing salts that accumulate in pools at snowmelt. Moose that find salt pools near roads tend to remember their location and to re-visit them to get the sodium they need in their diet. This study investigated the trade-off between road avoidance and salt pool spatial memory in the movement behaviour of moose using an agent-based model to determine how the interplay of these two factors influences the frequency of road crossings in the Laurentides Wildlife Reserve (Québec, Canada). Mitigation measures studied were the removal of roadside salt pools and the construction of compensatory salt pools away from the road shoulder. A GPS telemetry program of moose in the study area was used to validate our model. The model moose with both road avoidance and salt pool spatial memory activated produced the best results when comparing to the real moose data. Results show that both road avoidance and salt pool spatial memory significantly affect moose road crossings, but that road avoidance explains most of the variance. Road avoidance tended to decrease the number of moose crossings, but this decrease was partly compensated by the spatial memory of salt pools which typically increased the likelihood that moose will cross the road. The trade-off between road avoidance and salt pool memory was largest when original salt pools were maintained. In simulations where road avoidance and salt pool memory were both turned off, the impact of mitigation measures on the number of road crossings was lowest. For the most realistic moose behavior, the management scenarios resulted in reductions in road crossings between 22% and 79%, and the best scenario is to completely remove roadside salt pools. If compensation salt pools are used, they should be located as far as possible from the roads (beyond 500 m) to have an impact on moose road crossings.