Impact Of Macroeconomic Uncertainty Research Articles

The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on inequality: An empirical study for the United Kingdom

The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on inequality: An empirical study for the United Kingdom

The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the relationship between financial volatility and real economic activity

ABSTRACT A stock market volatility index is a widely used proxy of uncertainty in the macroeconomy, where a rise in the index dampens real economic activity. By contrast, the macroeconomic uncertainty index proposed by Jurado et al. (2015) measures the predictability of a wide range of macroeconomic indicators and thus, is a comprehensive indicator of macroeconomy-wide uncertainty. This study empirically investigates the nonlinear link between financial volatility and real economic activity based on the level of the macroeconomic uncertainty index. Employing data from the United States and Japan, the empirical analysis suggests that an increase in financial volatility lowers industrial production and business-fixed investment more persistently when macroeconomic uncertainty is higher.

The Impact of Uncertainty in Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Returns in the USA

In this research paper, the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on stock returns in the United States of America is examined. To measure this macroeconomic uncertainty, a survey of Consensus Economics with data ranging from 1989 until 2019 was employed. The survey consists of monthly forecasts for several macroeconomic variables for multiple countries. Four uncertainty measures were developed, based on the standard deviation, interquartile range, high-minus-low and an AR- and GARCH model. By performing linear regressions, a positive relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and stock returns was identified for, on average, 13 out of 49 sectors, which is consistent with economic theory. Furthermore, the standard deviation of stock returns was regressed on macroeconomic uncertainty. A positive relationship was found for, on average, 41.7 out of 49 sectors. The results are discussed at a general level, at the level of the macroeconomic variables and at the sector level.

The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on inequality: An empirical study for the United Kingdom

AbstractThe role of economic uncertainty on macroeconomic fluctuations has been studied extensively in the empirical literature; however, its distributional effects have received little attention. This paper attempts to fill this gap by investigating whether macroeconomic uncertainty affects income, wage, and consumption inequality in the United Kingdom. Our findings suggest that measures of inequality fall significantly to a macroeconomic uncertainty shock. Households in the middle and right tail of the income distribution appear to be more adversely affected relative to ones in the left tail. Income composition and households indebtedness explain a large part of the heterogeneous response. Uncertainty also appears to account significantly for the variation of income and consumption inequality.

Macroeconomic uncertainty, information competition, and liquidity

In this study we provide evidence regarding the effect of macroeconomic uncertainty on stock market liquidity by analyzing the time-series relation between both types of macroeconomic uncertainty shocks: good and bad uncertainty and various measures of liquidity. Our study also sheds light on whether the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on liquidity varies with information environment by examining the effects of investor competition over information on the relation between good and bad uncertainty and liquidity in the Taiwan markets. We find that there is a negative (positive) relation between bad (good) uncertainty and the subsequent liquidity of stocks. We also find that the magnitude of the impact of bad uncertainty on stock market liquidity is larger than good uncertainty. On the other side, macroeconomic uncertainty would exerts a larger impact on liquidity when the market is imperfectly competitive.

Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?

While there exists numerous studies on the macroeconomic effects of oil and commodity shocks, the literature is quite silent on the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on oil and commodity prices and, especially, on their volatility. This paper tackles this issue through the estimation of a structural threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model on a sample of 19 commodity markets. We aim at (i) assessing whether the effect of macroeconomic uncertainty shocks on commodity price returns depends on the degree of uncertainty, and (ii) investigating the transfer from macroeconomic uncertainty to price uncertainty using a newly developed measure of commodity price uncertainty. Our findings show that both agricultural and industrial markets are highly sensitive to the variability and the level of macroeconomic uncertainty, while the impact on precious metals is more parsimonious given their well-identified safe-haven role in time of economic turmoil. In addition, we find evidence that the recent 2007–09 recession has generated an unprecedented episode of high uncertainty in numerous commodity prices. Interestingly, our analysis further reveals that volatility and uncertainty in prices can be disconnected. This is especially true for the oil market as most important shocks in the 1990s and the beginning of the 2000s that lead to price volatility do not generate price uncertainty, highlighting the relevance of our uncertainty measure in linking uncertainty to predictability rather than to volatility.

The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on international commodity prices

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on a large sample of 19 commodity markets.Design/methodology/approachThe authors rely on Jurado et al.’s (2015) measure of macroeconomic uncertainty based on a wide range of monthly macroeconomic and financial indicators and estimate a threshold VAR model to assess whether the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on commodity prices differs under the high- or low-uncertainty state.FindingsThe findings show that positive macroeconomic uncertainty shocks affect commodity prices returns negatively on average and the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty is generally higher in high-uncertainty states compared with low-uncertainty states. Besides, although the safe-haven role of precious metals is confirmed, energy and industrial markets are more sensitive to short-run and long-run macroeconomic uncertainty, respectively.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings in this study suggest that commodity prices reflect not only the level of economic fundamental but also the volatility of economic fundamental.Originality/valueThis study empirically analyzes and verifies the influence of macroeconomic uncertainty not only on oil prices but also on four groups of 19 raw materials. As for the methodological issues, the authors rely on a structural threshold vector autoregressive specification for modeling commodity price returns to account for potentially different effects depending on the macroeconomic uncertainty states.

Is the relationship between gold and the U.S. dollar always negative? The role of macroeconomic uncertainty

ABSTRACTThe main work of this article is to access the role of macroeconomic uncertainty in effecting the correlation between gold and the dollar. The empirical analysis is divided into two parts. Firstly, we examine the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on short and long correlation between gold and the dollar. Secondly, we analyse the explanatory power of economic uncertainty for the abnormal market relation between gold and the dollar with a threshold model. In particular, we investigate impacts of economic uncertainty sourced from different economies. The empirical results indicate that economic uncertainty generates direct impacts on the correlation between gold and the dollar. Moreover, our results emphasize that uncertainty sourced from different economies have different impacts on the dynamics between gold and the dollar. This article also presents the relative contribution of gold and the dollar shocks to the likelihood of being in the high-uncertainty regime. These results have implications for risk management, international asset allocation and hedging strategies.

The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Activity in the Euro Area

AbstractThe impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on activity has been a subject of heightened interest in recent years. Empirical literature typically focuses on the US or on individual euro area countries by using the VAR approach. However, there is limited quantitative evidence about the impact of uncertainty on euro area activity available as yet. In this paper, we derive measures of macroeconomic uncertainty in the euro area from an encompassing dataset, and single out some indicators of uncertainty based on theoretical plausibility and empirical evidence. From this set of indicators, we derive an aggregate measure of macroeconomic uncertainty in the euro area. Using a multivariate structural VAR approach, we then offer some quantitative evidence on the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on euro area activity during the period 1999–2015. Our main findings show that heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by the proposed indicators, does have a strongly adverse impact on activity in the euro area, albeit the deepness and duration of the shocks differ somewhat across uncertainty measures.

Does the Volatility of Commodity Prices Reflect Macroeconomic Uncertainty?

While there exists numerous studies on the macroeconomic effects of oil and commodity shocks, the literature is quite silent on the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on oil and commodity prices and, especially, on their volatility. This paper tackles this issue through the estimation of a threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model on a sample of 19 commodity markets. We aim at (i) assessing whether the effect of macroeconomic uncertainty shocks on commodity price returns depends on the degree of uncertainty, and (ii) investigating the transfer from macroeconomic uncertainty to price uncertainty using a newly developed measure of commodity price uncertainty. Our findings show that both agricultural and industrial markets are highly sensitive to the variability and the level of macroeconomic uncertainty, while the impact on precious metals is more parsimonious given their well-identified safe-haven role in time of economic turmoil. In addition, we find evidence that the recent 2007-09 recession has generated an unprecedented episode of high uncertainty in numerous commodity prices. Interestingly, our analysis further reveals that volatility and uncertainty in prices can be disconnected. This is especially true for the oil market as most important shocks in the 1990s and the beginning of the 2000s that lead to price volatility do not generate price uncertainty, highlighting the relevance of our uncertainty measure in linking uncertainty to predictability rather than to volatility.

The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on non-financial firms' demand for liquidity: A note

In an influential article, Baum et al. (2006) proposed a novel approach to dealing with uncertainty through conditional variability, as reflected in their Eq. (C.6) of the article. This crucial result in their Eq. (C.6) is, however, incorrect. In this Note, I provide a derivation for the correct result and perform numerical evaluations.

The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on firms' changes in financial leverage

AbstractWe investigate the relationship between a firm's measures of corporate governance, macroeconomic uncertainty and changes in leverage. Recent research highlights the role of governance in financing decisions. Previous research also indicates that macroeconomic uncertainty affects a firm's ability to borrow. In this paper we investigate how both these channels of influence affects firms' financing decisions. Our findings show that macroeconomic uncertainty has an important role to play, both by itself and in interaction with a measure of corporate governance. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The second moments matter: The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the allocation of loanable funds

This paper investigates how variations in macroeconomic uncertainty distort commercial banks' allocation of loanable funds by analyzing the dispersion of banks' total loan-to-asset ratios over a quarter-century period.

The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on non-financial firms' demand for liquidity

This paper empirically investigates whether changes in macroeconomic volatility affect the efficient allocation of non-financial firms' liquid assets. We argue that higher uncertainty will hamper managers' ability to accurately predict firm-specific information and induce them to implement similar cash management policies. Contrarily, when the macroeconomic environment becomes more tranquil, each manager will have the latitude to behave more idiosyncratically as she can adjust liquid assets based on the specific requirements of the firm, bringing about a more efficient allocation of liquid assets. Our empirical analysis provides support for these predictions.

The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Cash Holdings for Non-Financial Firms

This paper investigates the effects of macroeconomic volatility on nonfinancial firms' cash holding behavior. Using an augmented cash buffer-stock model, we demonstrate that an increase in macroeconomic volatility will cause the cross-sectional distribution of firms' cash-to-asset ratios to narrow. We test this prediction on a panel of non-financial firms drawn from the annual COMPUSTAT database covering the period 1957-2000, and find that as macroeconomic uncertainty increases, firms behave more homogeneously. Our results are shown to be robust to the inclusion of the levels of several macroeconomic factors.