Impact Of Macroeconomic Factors Research Articles

The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Valuation

The widely accepted notion that capital markets are significantly influenced by macroeconomic factors underscores the importance of examining how these factors directly and indirectly affect stock valuations. Stock prices are inherently volatile, subject to the whims of the market, yet they are expected to converge with the intrinsic value of the shares they represent. Uncovering this fair value is essential for strategic investment decisions. This review article aims to provide an in-depth analysis of the impact of macroeconomic variables on the financial performance of specific companies, using macroeconomic data to elucidate the shifts in the fair value of their shares. By focusing on Baiyunshan, a leading pharmaceutical company in China, the article illustrates the tangible effects of macroeconomic factors on stock valuation. It offers a comprehensive exploration of various evaluation models, providing investors with a robust framework to assess the intrinsic value of publicly traded pharmaceutical companies. This study not only bridges the gap in current understanding but also equips investors with the necessary tools to navigate the complexities of the capital market with greater confidence and precision.

The Fluctuation Characteristics and Risk Investigation of China's Gold Future Market

This paper deeply explores the fluctuation characteristics and risks of China's gold futures market. Through the collection of data on macroeconomic factors, stock index interest rates, and energy futures, the paper employs multiple linear regression models and intermediary variable models to quantitatively analyze the impact of these factors on the volatility of gold futures prices. The research finds that there is a significant positive correlation between the gold futures price and the growth of the U.S. GDP and the silver futures price index, while the impact of other macroeconomic indicators such as China's gold reserves and the inflation rate is not significant. Policy support and market regulation play a key role in the healthy development of the market, and the broad participation of market participants and the innovation of financial products have driven the diversification of the market. The intermediary effect analysis shows that the impact of macroeconomic factors on the gold futures price is partially indirect through the intermediary variable of stock index interest rates.

Research on macroeconomic indicators and stock market correlation analysis based on machine learning

The stock market is known as the barometer of the national economy, and macroeconomic factors have an important impact on the volatility of the stock market. Therefore, considering the impact of macroeconomic factors on the sustainability of stock market volatility will help to capture the time-varying characteristics of volatility persistence, so as to significantly improve the estimation and forecasting effect of volatility. In this work, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-mixing data sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) model is adopted, which combines the advantages of the GARCH model in short-term volatility modeling and the advantages of MIDAS regression in integrating macroeconomic variables of different frequencies. The GARCH model provides an accurate depiction of intraday volatility in financial markets by capturing the dynamic nature of short-term volatility. MIDAS regression introduces long-term macroeconomic factors into volatility modeling by integrating macroeconomic data with different sampling frequencies, thus making up for the shortcomings of traditional measurement methods in frequency matching. By combining these two methods, the GARCH-MIDAS model can more comprehensively reflect the dynamic changes of stock market volatility, considering both the impact of short-term market volatility and the role of long-term macroeconomic factors, thus providing a more accurate and in-depth analytical tool for volatility prediction and risk management. The results show that the GARCH-MIDAS model can significantly improve the accuracy of volatility forecasting, and provide more reliable decision support for investors, policymakers and economists.

Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Financial Liquidity of Companies: A Moderation Analysis

The objective of this study was to examine the potential moderating effects of the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the financial liquidity of enterprises. Given the significance of liquidity for companies and the profound impact of the macroeconomic environment, a research gap was identified in relation to the limited number of studies investigating the influence of macroeconomic factors on corporate liquidity. Additionally, the limited scope of companies surveyed in this area, in terms of sector, size, capital market presence, and the limited range of macroeconomic variables examined were notable. Most importantly, the absence of studies examining moderators of the relationship between macroeconomic factors and liquidity was a significant concern. To this end, two main research questions were formulated. First, what factors moderate the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the financial liquidity of companies? Second, what is the nature of the moderating effects on the relationship between macroeconomic variables and corporate financial liquidity? This research employed panel data analysis on an unbalanced panel comprising 5327 Polish enterprises spanning from 2003 to 2021. The primary analytical technique utilised was linear regression (pooled OLS) with robust standard errors clustered at the firm level. The main results of this study indicate that: (1) debt level, profitability, and the fixed assets to total assets ratio are significant moderators of some of the relationships between macroeconomic variables and corporate liquidity; (2) debt level moderates the relationship between the ratio of internal expenditures on research and development to GDP and financial liquidity, as well as the relationship between inflation rate and liquidity; the relationship is statistically significant and positive only for those enterprises with above-median debt levels; (3) profitability moderates the relationship between the employment coefficient and financial liquidity, as well as the relationship between the inflation rate and liquidity; in the high-profitability group, those relationships are positive, whereas in the low-profitability group, they are negative; (4) the ratio of fixed assets to total assets moderates the relationship between the money supply and corporate financial liquidity; for enterprises with low asset flexibility, there is a negative relationship between the money supply and financial liquidity; conversely, for enterprises with high asset flexibility, there is a positive relationship between the money supply and financial liquidity; (5) the rationale behind these findings can be derived from capital structure theory and financial analysis theory. The results of this study represent a step towards a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between the macro environment and corporate liquidity, as well as the factors that moderate this relationship from both a microeconomic and a macroeconomic perspective. The findings of this study may also inform policy decisions governing the corporate sector due to a more nuanced understanding of the relationships between macroeconomic factors and corporate liquidity.

Macro-financial nexus: a systematic review on the impact of macroeconomic factors on bank stock returns

Macro-financial nexus: a systematic review on the impact of macroeconomic factors on bank stock returns

Examining How Macroeconomic Variables Influence Regional Autonomy: An Examination of Local Taxing Power

The Indonesian Central Government has granted local governments greater autonomy and authority in resource management, a process called decentralization. The impact of macroeconomic factors on regional autonomy in Jambi Province following fiscal decentralization explores how decentralization empowers local governments to optimize local income. The Financial Relations Law (UU HKPD) underscores the importance of local taxing Power for local administrations. Methodologically, this study utilizes panel data regression to investigate the influence of macroeconomic variables on regional autonomy. The qualitative analysis method is also employed to formulate policy strategies for enhancing local taxing Power. Results reveal some macroeconomic variables have a significant effect on regional autonomy. These are some recommendations to strengthen regional autonomy in Jambi Province, such as the identification of leading sectors regarding income tax, enhancement of supervision and law enforcement, taxpayer education, improvement of public service quality, the establishment of tax collection task forces, and innovation in tax administration.

The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Banking Sector in Pakistan

The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Banking Sector in Pakistan

The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Nigerian-Naira Exchange Rate Fluctuations (1981-2021)

This study majorly considered establishing the relationship that existed among the Nigerian-Naira (NGN) Exchange Rate and External Reserve, Inflation Rate, GDP Growth, Public Debt, Unemployment Rate and Exports for the period, (1981-2021). Also, the macroeconomic variables that influenced the NGN exchange rate fluctuations were determined. Multiple linear regression and correlation analyses were employed in this study. Results showed that the significant variables that influenced the NGN exchange rate fluctuations were External Reserve, Public Debt and Unemployment Rate; and each of them had very strong significant positive relationships with NGN exchange rate fluctuations. It was equally revealed that about 97% of the total variations in the NGN exchange rate fluctuations, from 1981 to 2021, were accounted for by variations in External Reserve, Public Debt and Unemployment Rate; while about 3% of the total variations in the NGN exchange rate could be attributed to other macroeconomic factors outside the ones used in this study. It was concluded that External Reserve, Public Debt and Unemployment Rate were the most macroeconomic factors that influenced the Nigerian-Naira exchange rate fluctuations from 1981 to 2021.

Developing the Voluntary Pension Fund at Enterprises in Vietnam from the Perspective of Employers

The paper studies the factors affecting the development of the voluntary pension fund system at enterprises from the employers' perspective. Through a survey of 37 enterprises, the paper clarifies employers' awareness of the importance of voluntary pension funds, the need for enterprises' pension funds, and their willingness to invest in the voluntary retirement fund. The findings show that 78.83% of businessmen believe that developing a voluntary pension fund system is necessary because voluntary pension insurance is a way for employees to protect themselves and their families against risks. 100% of business owners want a voluntary pension fund based on an agreement between the enterprises and employees, while 60% of employers prefer the blended mechanism with government supervision and support. Regarding the level of investment in social insurance and other retirement regimes, 68% of enterprises spend less than 10% of total costs to implement the program; 30% of enterprises use from 10% to 20% of total costs to implement the program. Employers show their prudence when considering a voluntary pension fund at their enterprises. More than 60% of employers concern about the fund security, 24% considers the impact of macro economic factors on the fund performance.

Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Bank Financial Performance: A Turkey and Kosovo Comparative Study

Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Bank Financial Performance: A Turkey and Kosovo Comparative Study

Macroeconomic Factors of Stock Market Development (The Case of Saudi Arabia)

Most economists recognize that a healthy capital market can enhance economic growth. In 2016, Saudi Arabia launched Vision 2030, and the Financial Sector Development Program is part of the Vision. The program aims to achieve economic diversification, reduce oil dependence, and trigger economic growth. Capital market development has an integral part to play in achieving Vision 2030 goals. For this reason, it is essential to investigate the factors that could influence it. The literature on the impact of macroeconomic factors on the stock market development is inconclusive; thus, it is difficult to generalize the outcome of previous studies. This research investigates the macroeconomic and institutional determinants of stock market development in Saudi Arabia from 2008 to 2021 by using a multiple linear regression approach. Following previous research, our analysis explores the impact of several factors, including Global Trade Openness, Market Depth, Macroeconomic Stability, Control of Corruption, Income level, Private capital flows, Financial intermediary development, Economic Development, Domestic Savings and investment. Among the nine evaluated factors, only four were significant. We find that the determinants of stock market development in Saudi Arabia are Economic Development, Income level, Control of corruption, and Market Depth.

The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Credit Risk Management in Developing Country Banks: An Analysis Based on Basel III

The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Credit Risk Management in Developing Country Banks: An Analysis Based on Basel III

Impacts of macroeconomic factors on the real estate bubble in Vietnam's big cities with industrial zones

Impacts of macroeconomic factors on the real estate bubble in Vietnam's big cities with industrial zones

The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Current Account Deficit in ASEAN Countries

In most ASEAN nations, a deficit in the current account balance began in 2018, sparking concerns among these countries. The deficit in the current account has led to various disadvantages in ASEAN countries, harming the nation’s economic health. Therefore, this paper analyzes the macroeconomic factors influencing the current account deficit in selected ASEAN countries. Data from eight ASEAN countries were analyzed using a panel static approach. Findings reveal that exchange rate (ER), Term of trade (TOT) and interest rate (IR) are the main factors that influence the deterioration of current account balances. Meanwhile, money supply (MS), and oil price (OILP) showed insignificant relationships towards current account balances. As ER, IR and TOT influence the current account significantly, it is suggested that the authorities in ASEAN countries have policy reforms and macroeconomic adjustments accordingly to improve the current account deterioration.

The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Non-Performing Loans of Commercial Banks: An Empirical Study Based on 2022 Provincial-level Data in China

The level of macroeconomic development varies, resulting in different non-performing loan ratios for commercial banks. Based on the relevant data of macroeconomic indicators from 31 provinces and cities in China in 2022, this paper empirically studies the relationship between regional gross domestic product (GDP), average urban employment salaries, the proportion of the tertiary industry, per capita consumer expenditure, the number of recipients of unemployment insurance, and the number of recipients of old-age insurance, and the non-performing loan ratio using a multiple regression model. A general model is established and tested to determine the final model. The empirical research results indicate that the proportion of the tertiary industry and the number of recipients of unemployment insurance have a positive impact on non-performing loans, while average urban employment salaries, regional GDP, and the non-performing loan ratio have a negative impact. Finally, based on the conclusions drawn from this study, relevant policy recommendations are proposed to provide guidance for commercial banks in China to mitigate the risks of non-performing loans.

The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Bank Credit Risk

Credit risk has become one of the main risks faced by banks under the background of increasing loan demand. Meanwhile, bank credit risk may be affected by a number of factors, including the expansion rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), changes in interest rate, unemployment rate and even more. These macroeconomic factors are crucial in determining how credit risk for banks is shaped. This paper concludes the different impacts of different macroeconomic factors discussed in several papers on the risks of bank credit, and illustrates how changes in GDP growth rate and rate of interest affect credit risks. Through comprehensive literature review and empirical research, this paper finds that macro factors, including the expansion rate of GDP and the rate of interest, have considerable impacts on banks' credit risk. Bank credit risk will decrease as GDP growth rate increases; however the risk of bank credit will increase as interest rates rise. At the end, the paper provides several suggestions for the development of risk management strategies, including the monitoring of macroeconomic factors and the adjustment of credit policies under different economic situations. The research results are intended to help researchers in related fields understand current research findings and patterns of development in the research field, to give a theoretical foundation and backing for their investigations, and to offer important guiding significance for banks and relevant regulators to formulate risk management strategies.

Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Selected Sectors of BSE

The year 1991 will forever remain a landmark year in the history of stock markets in India. The stock markets have become a yardstick for measuring the performance of an economy and the macro economic variables have become important indicators of the health of the economy. Here, an attempt has been made to study the relationship between selected external macroeconomic variables and different sectoral indices at Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). For the purpose of study seven macroeconomic variables such as Index of Industrial Production, Consumer price Index, Call Money Rate, Dollar Price, Foreign Institutional Investment, Crude Oil Prices and Gold Price are used to study the impact of macroeconomic variables on Sectoral Indices at Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) viz. Auto, Bankex, FMCG, Consumer Durable and Metal. The monthly statistical data for above mentioned variables have been used for five years covering the period from April 2014 to March 2019. It was observed that all variables show high correlation amongst themselves and Call Money Rate is the only variable that affects all the Indices.

THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON THE PERFORMANCE OF THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR IN LITHUANIA

The construction sector is closely related to the economic situation in the country. The main products of this sector are residences, business structures. Demand for these products is highest when the economic situation in the country is good, but when the economy slows down, the demand for these products also falls. This is because when the economic situation is good the population has spare money, loans are cheaper and the risk of job loss is low. This leads to an increase in the rate of growth of residential construction, as there is more demand for this product. Similarly, businesses are expanding due to increased sales, higher demand, and the resulting increase in non-residential construction. Therefore, in order to maximize the performance of the Lithuanian construction sector, it is important to keep an eye on the macroeconomic environment and to understand when the economy offers opportunities and when it brings threats. To this end, the construction sector and the macroeconomic environment are analyzed, the theory of economic cycles and the impact of macroeconomic factors on the construction sector is analyzed, and an empirical study of the impact of macroeconomic factors on the construction sector is carried out. An analysis of the scientific literature on business cycles and the main macroeconomic factors that affect the performance of the construction sector. Economic cycles are closely linked to construction performance. The boom or peak phases of the economy provide opportunities for the construction sector, while the recession and crisis phases bring threats. Understanding potential threats or opportunities maximizes performance, and this understanding requires an analysis of macroeconomic factors. Therefore, the main macroeconomic factors to be taken into account when analyzing both the changes in economic cycles and the factors that directly affect the construction sector are identified. The main factors identified are: aggregate demand, employment levels, corporate profits, import levels, interest rates, gross domestic product. However, it is also very important to analyze the existence of a real estate bubble, especially in the construction sector. An empirical study has been carried out to analyze the relationship between the identified macroeconomic factors and the construction sector in Lithuania. For this purpose, the Eviews software is used to construct a correlation matrix, regression models, find the elasticity coefficient and forecast.

The Relationship between Macroeconomic Factors and Tourism Demand for OIC Countries

Objective – The current paper investigates the relationship between macroeconomic factors and tourism demand for OIC countries. Methodology – The current paper employed the panel quantile regression analysis to assess the relationship. Findings – It is demonstrated that the impact of macroeconomic factors on tourism receipts is heterogeneous depending on the levels of tourism spending in the OIC host countries. The exchange rate and income exhibit a positive relationship with tourism demand. Meanwhile, inflation presents a negative relationship towards tourism demand at the lower level of tourism demand yet is positively related to the higher level. On the other hand, trade openness is negatively related to tourism receipts in general, and the strength of the relationship decreases at a higher level of demand. Novelty – Compared to previous studies, the impact of the macroeconomic factors was assessed across different levels of tourism demand. Type of Paper: Empirical JEL Classification: L83, Z32, O10 Keywords: Tourism Demand; Macroeconomic Factors; OIC countries; Quantile Regression Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Pinjaman, S; Jemin, S; Ridzuan, A.R; Lada, S. (2023). The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Factors and Tourism Demand for OIC Countries, J. Bus. Econ. Review, 8(2), 60–68. https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2023.8.2(2)

The Nexus between Macroeconomic Factors and Tourism Receipts for Oic Countries: Panel Quantile Regression Approach

The current paper investigates the relationship between macroeconomic factors and tourism receipts for OIC countries. Based on the panel quantile regression analysis conducted, it is demonstrated that the impact of macroeconomic factors on tourism receipts is heterogeneous depending on the levels of tourism spending towards the OIC host countries. The exchange rate and income exhibit a positive relationship with tourism receipts. Meanwhile, inflation presents a negative relationship towards tourism receipt at the lower level of tourism receipt yet positively related at the higher level of spending. On the other hand, trade openness is negatively related to tourism receipts in general and the strength of the relationship decreases at a higher level of spending. The current research believes that to develop the tourism sector, proper plans should be made including improving the infrastructure, tourism facility, travel safety, and ease of entry considering the positive impact of economic development and trade openness. Relevant strategies should also be made to attract tourists from countries with higher purchasing power and strong currency value since it implies to be important in explaining the movement of tourism receipt. Keywords: Tourism Demand, Macroeconomic Factors, OIC countrie