Impact Of Extreme Heat Research Articles

The impact of extreme heat on the risk of car crashes, injuries, and fatalities in California

The impact of extreme heat on the risk of car crashes, injuries, and fatalities in California

Heatwaves and Home Births: Impact of Extreme Heat on Delivery Choices in India

Heatwaves and Home Births: Impact of Extreme Heat on Delivery Choices in India

Hotter days, dirtier air: The impact of extreme heat on energy and pollution intensity in China

This research endeavors to investigate the causal relationship between climate change and pollution intensity, employing a county-level dataset encompassing meteorological data and air pollution measurements from 2008 to 2017 in China. We discern the immediate causal impact of “local temperature shocks” on pollution intensity, uncovering a positive association between climate change and pollution intensity. Notably, this effect manifests with greater significance in economically underdeveloped regions, the northern provinces, and cities not reliant on resource-based industries. Moreover, we disentangle the influence of extreme heat on air pollution into three distinct facets: scale, technological, and structural effects. Our findings reveal that extreme heat augments energy demand, diminishes energy efficiency, and amplifies coal consumption, consequently elevating pollution intensity. Drawing upon the SSP126 and SSP585 climate change scenarios for future Chinese cities in the short-term (2041–2060), mid-term (2061–2080), and long-term (2081–2100), our simulation outcomes demonstrate that the escalating frequency of hot days will perpetuate an adverse impact on pollution intensity across China's counties. This study presents a fresh perspective on the environmental repercussions of climate change and provides theoretical underpinning for local authorities in their endeavors to attain concurrent reductions in both pollution and carbon emissions.

The impact of extreme heat on lake warming in China

Global lake ecosystems are subjected to an increased occurrence of heat extremes, yet their impact on lake warming remains poorly understood. In this study, we employed a hybrid physically-based/statistical model to assess the contribution of heat extremes to variations in surface water temperature of 2260 lakes in China from 1985 to 2022. Our study indicates that heat extremes are increasing at a rate of about 2.08 days/decade and an intensity of about 0.03 °C/ day·decade in China. The warming rate of lake surface water temperature decreases from 0.16 °C/decade to 0.13 °C/decade after removing heat extremes. Heat extremes exert a considerable influence on long-term lake surface temperature changes, contributing 36.5% of the warming trends within the studied lakes. Given the important influence of heat extremes on the mean warming of lake surface waters, it is imperative that they are adequately accounted for in climate impact studies.

The impact of extreme heat and cold on fuel poverty

The impact of extreme heat and cold on fuel poverty

Health-informed predictive regression for statistical-simulation decision-making in urban heat mitigation

An integrated environmental, economic, and health-informed approach was developed as a decision making framework to assess the associated benefits of enriching the urban greenery cover to provide city cooling potential. The framework used an evidence-based statistical-simulation approach to support decision-making processes associated with heat mitigation strategies. A novel health-informed statistical modeling was developed by introducing log-linear Poisson regression based on clustering factors to increase model fit, control dataset overdispersion, and enhance model prediction. The statistical model was utilized to predict mortality records and emergency department visits based on changes in heat behavior. Microclimate simulations were developed utilizing an updated version of the Urban Weather Generator to assess the impacts of increasing greenery cover in York Region, Southern Ontario, Canada on ambient temperature, outdoor heat stress, and buildings' energy consumption. The heat-based health predictions of the York Region community confirmed the possible hazardous impact of climate change on health and the impact of extreme heat on mortality records and health system use. By intensifying the urban greenery cover, the results demonstrated significant reductions in ambient temperature, outdoor heat stress, neighborhood average daily energy use, expected mortality counts, and emergency department visits. The economic module has reported the expected benefits in terms of lower visits to emergency departments, avoiding premature mortality, reduced energy consumption, and reduced productivity losses. The proposed framework was developed as a flexible decision-making tool for policy-makers and stakeholders to assess environmental, economic, and health benefits of heat mitigation strategies within urban contexts.

Contrasting impacts of dry versus humid heat on US corn and soybean yields

The impact of extreme heat on crop yields is an increasingly pressing issue given anthropogenic climate warming. However, some of the physical mechanisms involved in these impacts remain unclear, impeding adaptation-relevant insight and reliable projections of future climate impacts on crops. Here, using a multiple regression model based on observational data, we show that while extreme dry heat steeply reduced U.S. corn and soy yields, humid heat extremes had insignificant impacts and even boosted yields in some areas, despite having comparably high dry-bulb temperatures as their dry heat counterparts. This result suggests that conflating dry and humid heat extremes may lead to underestimated crop yield sensitivities to extreme dry heat. Rainfall tends to precede humid but not dry heat extremes, suggesting that multivariate weather sequences play a role in these crop responses. Our results provide evidence that extreme heat in recent years primarily affected yields by inducing moisture stress, and that the conflation of humid and dry heat extremes may lead to inaccuracy in projecting crop yield responses to warming and changing humidity.

Grain yield prediction model based on the analysis of climate and irrigated area conditions in the wheat grain‐filling period

AbstractThe food problem is a major issue of common concern around the world, and the forecasting of wheat output can help to promote the solution of this problem. This paper analyses the relationship between wheat yield and weather, precipitation and irrigated area; proposes a Bayesian optimized machine model of the XGBoost regression algorithm; and applies it to forecast wheat yield in Uttar Pradesh, India. Second, the stability and robustness of the XGBoost model using the top five parameter combinations of the optimization score were evaluated by cross‐validation, and the best model was used to predict wheat yield in Uttar Pradesh, India. Finally, the model is compared with other prediction models, and the tenfold cross‐validation experimental results show the effectiveness of the model. Ultimately, by learning from the available data and using the 2022 wheat irrigation data to forecast wheat yield per acre, we obtain a wheat production estimate of 17 930 817 t in Uttar Pradesh in 2022, which is a decreasing trend from previous years' wheat output. The impact of extreme heat on total production is somewhat contained by the year‐on‐year increase in the irrigated area in Uttar Pradesh.

The impact of climate change on mortality in the United States: Benefits and costs of adaptation

AbstractThis paper reviews and extends the recent empirical literature on the impact of climate change on mortality and adaptation in the United States. The analysis produces several new facts. First, the reductions in the impact of extreme heat on mortality risk previously documented up to 2004 have continued up to 2019, consistent with continued investments in health‐protecting adaptations to high temperatures. The second part of the paper examines the private and external costs of electricity generation and consumption related to high temperatures, a commonly used proxy for measuring the consumption of adaptation services. Extreme temperatures increase electricity demand in the residential sector (relative to moderate temperatures), but not in the commercial, industrial and transportation end‐use sectors. The additional electricity demand in response to high temperatures results in significant external costs due to the release of local and global pollutants caused by the combustion of fossil fuels in order to produce electricity. These external costs, documented for the first time in this paper, are one order of magnitude larger than the private cost of adaptation associated with electricity consumption.

A Heat Vulnerability Index: Spatial Patterns of Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity for Urbanites of Four Cities of India.

Extreme heat and heat waves have been established as disasters which can lead to a great loss of life. Several studies over the years, both within and outside of India, have shown how extreme heat events lead to an overall increase in mortality. However, the impact of extreme heat, similar to other disasters, depends upon the vulnerability of the population. This study aims to assess the extreme heat vulnerability of the population of four cities with different characteristics across India. This cross-sectional study included 500 households from each city across the urban localities (both slum and non-slum) of Ongole in Andhra Pradesh, Karimnagar in Telangana, Kolkata in West Bengal and Angul in Odisha. Twenty-one indicators were used to construct a household vulnerability index to understand the vulnerability of the cities. The results have shown that the majority of the households fell under moderate to high vulnerability level across all the cities. Angul and Kolkata were found to be more highly vulnerable as compared to Ongole and Karimnagar. Further analysis also revealed that household vulnerability is more significantly related to adaptive capacity than sensitivity and exposure. Heat Vulnerability Index can help in identifying the vulnerable population and scaling up adaptive practices.

The impact of extreme heat and heat waves on emergency ambulance dispatches due to external cause in Shenzhen, China

BackgroundCompared to hospital admissions (HAs), emergency ambulance dispatches (EADs) can be considered a real-time outcome for evaluating the public health impacts of ambient temperature. ObjectivesThis study aimed to assess if temperature has a causal effect on cause-specific EADs and its potential main and added effect in Shenzhen from 2013 to 2017. MethodsA distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) with quasi-Poisson distribution was applied to quantify the association between temperature and EADs. Likewise, the fraction of EADs attributable to different temperature ranges was calculated to identify extreme temperature ranges affecting population health. We then explored the main and added wave effects of heatwaves. ResultsAmbient temperature showed a U-shaped association with EADs. The minimum risk temperature was 17 °C (16th percentile of the daily mean temperature). Compared with the cold, the relative risk (RR) of heat on EADs presented smaller but the attributable risk larger. The main effects of heatwaves on EADs varied with external causes; and the peak RR of heat on EADs was observed in suicidal behaviors with heatwaves defined as 3 or more days with temperatures above the 75th percentile (RR = 4.53, 95% CI: 1.23–16.68), followed by assault (RR = 2.36, 95% CI: 1.25–4.48) and accidents (RR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.30–2.28), while the added wave effect was negligible. ConclusionsHeat was responsible for a higher proportion of EADs than cold. Most of the increase in health risk during warm season can be simply ascribed to the independent effects of daily temperature occurrences whether it is or not on the heat-wave day. And the main effects of heatwaves on cause-specific EADs showed varied change trends, of which the incidence of suicides seems more susceptible, followed by assault and accidents.

Impact of Extreme Heat on Corn Yield in Main Summer Corn Cultivating Area of China at Present and Under Future Climate Change

Extreme high temperatures may drastically reduce crop yield, especially when occurring during critical growth stages. The risk of future high temperatures may increase under global warming, this raises concerns regarding crop production. China is one of the most important corn production and consumer countries. The main summer corn cultivation region in China was taken as a sample to study the effects of extreme temperature on corn yield at present and in the near future (2021–2050). The determination of extreme high temperature threshold for corn is critical for assessment result. Based on historical observation data, we built a nonlinear regression model between temperature and corn yield, the extreme high temperature threshold of corn was determined as 36.06 °C in the study area. Multi-year average extreme high temperature days of the entire region during 1986–2015 were 5.2 days, the highest values appearing in the Midwestern area. The multi-year average extreme high temperature days increased every additional day could resulted in a 226.62 kg/ha multi-year average corn yield reducing. And over half of the stations, corn yield fluctuations had significant correlations with the number of extreme high temperature days (Nehtd). Nehtd displayed an increasing trend and reached 7.4 days and 11.6 days during 2021–2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which could result in corn yield decreased by 9.2% and 27.3%, respectively.

Impact of Extreme Heat on End-Stage Renal Disease Patients in the Northeast US Using Selected Clinical Outcomes

Impact of Extreme Heat on End-Stage Renal Disease Patients in the Northeast US Using Selected Clinical Outcomes

Extreme Heat and Exports: Evidence from Chinese Exporters

This paper explores the impact of extremely hot days on firm-level exports at monthly frequency. We find robust evidence that firm-level exports decline gradually following a heat strike and do not recover within twenty-four months. Specifically, export losses are negligible in the first three months and accumulates to substantial amount eventually: an additional >30°C day in a given month generates cumulative losses up to 1.67% of a firm’s annual exports twenty-four months later. Negative impact of extreme heat on exports is magnified in private-owned firms and agricultural products. The substantial cumulative effect indicates that exporters may bear productivity losses under heat strikes and full adaptation is infeasible within two years. Our findings have significant implications for economic development and climate change policies.

Convergence in Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from High Temperatures and Mortality, 1900–2004

This paper combines panel data on monthly mortality rates of US states and daily temperature variables for over a century (1900-2004) to explore the regional evolution of the temperature-mortality relationship and documents two key findings. First, the impact of extreme heat on mortality is notably smaller in states that more frequently experience extreme heat. Second, the difference in the heat-mortality relationship between hot and cold states declined over 1900-2004, though it persisted through 2004. Continuing differences in the mortality consequences of hot days suggests that health motivated adaptation to climate change may be slow and costly around the world.

Will Adaptation to Climate Change Be Slow and Costly? Evidence from High Temperatures and Mortality, 1900-2004

This paper builds on Barreca et al.’s (2013) finding that over the course of the 20th century the proliferation of residential air conditioning led to a remarkable decline in mortality due to extreme temperature days in the United States. Using panel data on monthly mortality rates of U.S. states and daily temperature variables for over a century (1900-2004) it explores the regional evolution in this relationship and documents two key findings. First, the impact of extreme heat on mortality is notably smaller in states that more frequently experience extreme heat. Second, the difference in the heat-mortality relationship between hot and cold states declined over the period 1900-2004, though it persisted through 2004. For example, the effect of hot days on mortality in cool states over the years 1980-2004, a period when residential air conditioning was widely available, is almost identical to the effect of hot days on mortality in hot states over the years 1900-1939, a period when air conditioning was not available for homes. Continuing differences in the mortality consequences of hot days suggests that health motivated adaptation to climate change may be slow and costly around the world.

The impact of extreme heat on morbidity in Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Given predictions of increased intensity and frequency of heat waves, it is important to study the effect of high temperatures on human mortality and morbidity. Many studies focus on heat wave-related mortality; however, heat-related morbidity is often overlooked. The goals of this study are to examine the historical observed relationship between temperature and morbidity (illness), and explore the extent to which observed historical relationships could be used to generate future projections of morbidity under climate change. We collected meteorological, air pollution, and hospital admissions data in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, for the years 1989–2005, and employed a generalized additive model (GAM) to quantify the relationship between morbidity (as measured by hospital admissions) and high temperatures with adjustment for the effects of potential confounders. We also estimated temperature threshold values for different causes of hospital admissions and then quantified the associated percent increase of admissions per degree above the threshold. Finally, the future impact of higher temperatures on admissions for the years 2059–2075 was examined. Our results show that five causes of admission (endocrine, genitourinary, renal, accidental, and self-harm) and three age groups (15–64, 75–84, >85 years) were affected by high temperatures. Future projections indicate a larger number of days above the current temperature threshold leading to an increase in admissions. Our results indicate that climate change may increase heat-related hospital admissions in the US urban mid-West and that health systems should include heat wave planning.

The relationship between extreme heat and ambulance response calls for the city of Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Concern over the impact of extreme heat upon human health has increased in recent years. Though much research has evaluated the relationships between the two, few studies have attempted to quantify this vulnerability on a sub-metropolitan area level. Using a Geographic Information System (GIS), ambulance calls for a 4-year period from 1999 to 2002 was analyzed in relation to extreme heat for the city of Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Ambulance response calls were plotted on a map to understand the spatial variability of where calls significantly increase above normal levels during oppressively hot days. Census data were used to identify the demographic characteristics of the population within these areas. Statistical tests were also used to assess the degree of correlation among different meteorological variables and the ambulance call data. Over the 4-year period, the average number of ambulance calls increases by 10 percent over normal levels on those days considered oppressively hot. A change in the spatial pattern of calls also occurs on such days. The urban core, with the greatest density of calls, experiences the greatest absolute percentage increase in calls from normal on oppressive days. However, it is some areas of the city located along the shore of Lake Ontario, where a high majority of the population goes to cool down, that demonstrate the greatest percentage increase in calls. Other areas of the city exhibiting an increase in calls are located within industrial and recreational areas.