Impact Of Exchange Rate Shocks Research Articles

The Situation of Inflation Hysteresis in Türkiye: Analysis with Traditional, Fourier and Fractional Frequency Fourier Tests

This study investigates the impact of exchange rate shocks on pricing and whether the values normalise after the shock ends. Accordingly, the study tests the existence of inflation hysteresis. Goods and services sector inflation figures are used in the evaluation, and the data for the Turkish sample between February 2003 and December 2022 are analysed. The data are analysed by subjecting them to Traditional Fourier and Fractional Frequency Fourier tests. The methods used in the study minimise the margin of error as they include sine and cosine values as well as structural breaks in the analysis and are considered to be one of the most up-to-date analysis methods. According to the study’s findings, the increase in inflation rates in Türkiye does not show a permanent feature after appropriate policy adjustments.

A STUDY ON THE VOLATILITY SPILLOVER BETWEEN NIGERIAN AND BRICS ECONOMIES USING MULTIVARIATE GARCH MODELS

BRIC-African relation has been of interest to key stakeholders especially given the inclusion of South Africa. In the existing literature some researchers hypothesized inclusion of Nigeria will accelerate BRICS objective of enhancing market access to ensure rapid economic growth among other objectives. This study utilized daily exchange rates of Naira/Dollar together with BRICS Dollar exchange rate for a period of 18 years. The study aimed to determine the volatility spillover between Nigerian and BRICS nations via Multivariate GARCH family: VECH, DBEKK and CCC Models. The result of VECH and DBEKK Models showed that all parameters were significant at 5% level, indicating clearly that there is positive impact of Exchange Rate shocks of Nigeria on the Exchange Rate Volatility of the BRICS economies, while for the CCC model only one parameter was significant at 5% level. This clearly indicated the existence of positive impacts of Exchange rates shocks of Nigeria on the Exchange Rate Volatility of the BRICS economies. On the other hand, only VECH model was able to capture the volatility spillover (own and cross) both on negative direction, suggesting a causal relationship between past volatility shocks in Nigeria and current volatility in the BRICS economies. Conclusively based on the information above VECH model was found to be appropriate to capture the volatility spillover between Nigerian exchange rate and that of the BRICS nations.

Does foreign currency borrowing make firms vulnerable? Experience of emerging India

The Asian Financial Crisis during the late 1990 s revealed the fault lines of foreign currency loans of corporates. It starkly demonstrated that a combination of semi-pegged exchange rates and unregulated foreign currency borrowing could expose corporates and, subsequently, the entire economy to heightened vulnerability. To mitigate these risks, implementing certain capital account restrictions emerged as a potential remedy. Against this backdrop, this paper investigates the changing contours of vulnerability arising from the rising foreign currency leverage of 818 non-financial corporates in India during 2004–2022. In particular, this paper examines the impact of exchange rate shocks and changes in certain key macroeconomic policy variables on the financial vulnerabilities of these firms. Our findings unequivocally indicate that during exchange rate depreciation, unhedged exposures significantly amplified the vulnerability of Indian firms. While our study centres on India, the overarching conclusions and insights derived from our analysis possess broader ramifications for emerging economies grappling with capital account restrictions. The policy implications of our research underscore the need to proactively strengthen the macroprudential toolkit to address the risks associated with foreign currency borrowing and ensure more robust risk management practices to prevent the buildup of systemic vulnerabilities.

Impact of Exchange Rate Shock on Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria.

This study examines the underlying forces of foreign direct investment (FDI) response to the exchange rate shock in Nigeria, covering the period 1981 to 2021. Including long-run analysis, this study employs the VEC model innovation accounting as an econometric analysis technique. The outcomes reveal that in the long run, exchange rate appreciation, a thriving domestic investment environment, and economic size positively drive foreign inflows. Conversely, rising economic instability, particularly associated with increasing price levels, negatively impacts foreign investment. The Innovation accounting analysis indicates that FDI positively responds to shocks in exchange rates, GDP, and capital. However, the strength of these responses diminishes over time. The relationship with consumer price index (CPI) shocks appears more complex, with varying reactions over the specified horizon. Hence, policymakers are urged to prioritize exchange rate stability, promote economic growth and innovation, and enhance the domestic investment environment. Addressing economic instability and inflation is crucial, necessitating robust policies to maintain economic stability. Continuous monitoring of CPI is advised, and long-term policy planning is recommended to ensure sustained positive impacts on FDI. Additionally, international collaboration is encouraged to foster a stable global investment environment.

THE ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE AND MONEY SUPPLY AND THEIR IMPACT ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN IRAQ

This research aimed to measure and analyze the impact of exchange rate shocks on some variables of the Iraqi economy during (1990-2022), because of the different effects of these shocks on the macroeconomic variables represented in money supply and agricultural output. Exchange rates are related to the policy chosen by the Central Bank of Iraq in managing the foreign exchange market and in the rentier nature of the Iraqi economy. The research uses a quantitative method in estimating the levels of the impact of exchange rate shocks on some economic variables. Several methods are conducted to achieve the goals, including the VAR model, variance decomposition and Impulse Response Functions. The results showed that exchange rate variance reached 100% in the same variable in the first year and decrease to 97% at the end of the period, and the same in the impulse response. It was an internal reaction that predicts what can be called the self-wave of an exchange rate rise, while both the variation and the response to the money supply shock in Iraq were dependent on the policy of the Central Bank and compatible with what was happening in the exchange rate, as the analysis of variance in the first year reached 38.98% for the same variable and 61% of it is due to the exchange rate. The results also showed that agricultural output was weakly affected by the exchange rate shock and money supply.

An Analysis of Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices: Evidence from Turkey

Assessing the impact of exchange rate shocks on domestic prices (Exchange Rate Pass-through) has a crucial role, particularly for the inflation targeting countries. This paper aims to clarify some aspects of ERPT to domestic prices in Turkey, an emerging country. Specifically, this study investigates if ERPT in Turkey is complete and how the behavior of ERPT has changed after the adoption of a flexible exchange rate regime in 2001. A Vector Auto Regression (VAR) framework is used to analyze the impact of exchange rate shocks on CPI Inflation. This study provides empirical evidence on the incompleteness and the pattern of ERPT on Turkey’s CPI inflation based on the VAR Model. The findings demonstrate that ERPT is not only incomplete but also has a different pattern during the floating exchange rate period. The pass-through has decreased from 2001 to 2017, and it has increased dramatically after 2017 to a large extent because of very high inflation and high exchange rate volatility in this period.

The Implication of Exchange Rate Volatility on Nigeria’s External Reserves: 1980-2020

Given the volatile nature of the exchange rate in Nigeria and the dynamics in the external reserves of the nation which are kept in foreign currency (dollar), this paper examined the impact of exchange rate shocks on the Nigerian external reserves using annual data from 1980 to 2019. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model, the results of the study indicates that exchange rate has an asymmetric impact on reserves, suggesting that the partial sum of exchange rate differ in magnitude and size relative to reserves in both positive and negative direction. The impact of a positive shock in exchange rate on reserves is statistically significant while the effect of a negative shock in exchange on reserve is statistically insignificant in the long-run. The same relationship holds for the short-run effect, although, both the positive and the negative short-run effects are statistically insignificant. The study therefore recommends that monetary authority should strengthens the exchange rate by adopting a flexible exchange floating and making it to thrives in order to boost reserves. Some of these policies could include allowing the market forces to determine the exchange rate and harmonizing the exchange rate position of the country.

Local, global and regional shocks indices in emerging exchange rate markets

Impact of exchange rate shocks on emerging market economies have been studied extensively; however, what is the origin of those shocks remains unanswered in the literature. The main aim of this paper is to fill this gap. We identify local, regional and global shocks in exchange rate markets for 19 major EMEs on a daily basis by using forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis. We find an asymmetry on the effects of both local and global shocks and also show that depreciating effects of both local and global shocks dominate the appreciating effects for almost all countries sampled. Moreover, we find that the external vulnerability indicators and financial development indicators are the main sources of the level of shocks.

A Study of the Effects of Exchange Rates on the Stock Companies in the Petrochemical Industry of the Eurozone

Considering the importance of the petrochemical industry as one of the strategic sectors in the eurozone economy, this study aims to evaluate the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market prices in the eurozone petrochemical industry. This paper applies Jorion’s model and panel regression framework to monthly data spanning from 2002 to 2018. Panel regressions were estimated for three periods: the whole sample, the period before the financial crisis, and the period after the crisis. These divisions allowed for the testing of the persistence of exchange rate exposure in the petrochemical sector over time. This paper provides evidence of the magnitude of the impact of exchange rate shocks. Additionally, this paper shows that the petrochemical sector of the eurozone was exposed to significant exchange rate risk at the 1 percent level during the whole sample period and that this exposure was still present even after we split the test period into the precrisis and postcrisis datasets. However, foreign exchange rate exposure increased after the start of the financial crisis in 2008. The negative coefficient of the variable representing exposure suggests that the depreciation of the euro was followed by an increase in the stock returns of the petrochemical companies in the eurozone.

Impact of Exchange Rate Shocks, Inward FDI and Import on Export Performance: A Cointegration Analysis

Impact of Exchange Rate Shocks, Inward FDI and Import on Export Performance: A Cointegration Analysis

Foreign Exchange Shocks and Gasoline Consumption

In an open economy, the foreign exchange rate (FER) influences incentives for the cross-border shopping of gasoline as well as the opportunity cost of using vehicles and the relative attractiveness of home versus foreign travel. Using monthly regional-level data of gasoline consumption in Iran, we estimate the impact of exchange rate shocks (both in level and volatility) on gasoline demand. We find that positive exchange rate shocks have a negative impact on total gasoline consumption as well as on vehicle users’ demand in both short-run and long-run. Furthermore, we find that in the periods that FER is less volatile, the responsiveness of gasoline demand to a change in FER is more pronounced.

Corporate debt, firm size and financial fragility in emerging markets

The post-Global Financial Crisis period shows a surge in corporate leverage in emerging markets and a number of countries with deteriorated corporate financial fragility indicators (Altman's Z-score). Firm size plays a critical role in the relationship between leverage, firm fragility and exchange rate movements in emerging markets. While the relationship between firm-leverage and distress scores varies over time, the relationship between firm size and corporate vulnerability is relatively time-invariant. All else equal, large firms in emerging markets are more financially vulnerable and also systemically important. Consistent with the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations in Gabaix (2011), idiosyncratic shocks to the sales growth of large firms are positively and significantly correlated with GDP growth in our emerging markets sample. Relatedly, the negative impact of exchange rate shocks has a more acute impact on the sales growth of the more highly levered large firms.

Corporate debt, firm size and financial fragility in emerging markets

The post-Global Financial Crisis period shows a surge in corporate leverage in emerging markets and a number of countries with deteriorated corporate financial fragility indicators (Altman’s Z-score). Firm size plays a critical role in the relationship between leverage, firm fragility and exchange rate movements in emerging markets. While the relationship between firm-leverage and distress scores varies over time, the relationship between firm size and corporate vulnerability is relatively time-invariant. All else equal, large firms in emerging markets are more financially vulnerable and also systemically important. Consistent with the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations in Gabaix (2011), idiosyncratic shocks to the sales growth of large firms are positively and significantly correlated with GDP growth in our emerging markets sample. Relatedly, the negative impact of exchange rate shocks has a more acute impact on the sales growth of the more highly levered large firms.

Asymmetric impacts of foreign exchange rate on the demand for money in Turkey: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL

Using the nonlinear ARDL bounds test for cointegration, this empirical study explores the long and the short run asymmetric impact of exchange rate shocks on the demand for money in Turkey from 1986:Q1 to 2014:Q4. Two specifications of money demand have been investigated that reveal that demand for money is explained by the scale and opportunity cost variables as well as the foreign exchange rate which accounts for currency substitution. In particular, the nonlinear ARDL model provides strong proof for asymmetry by using the bootstrap test. Our findings suggest that the response of money demand to a negative shock in exchange rate (appreciation) was stronger than its reaction to a positive shock (depreciation). Thus, individuals should expect further appreciation when Turkish lira appreciates. In addition, based on the dominated effect of inflation expectation caused by the currency depreciation, monetary policy makers should achieve more stable exchange rates to anchor price fluctuations. Furthermore, the findings of stable money demand behaviour emphasizes the important role of money to conduct an efficient monetary policy and achieve price stability.

Foreign Exchange Shocks and Gasoline Consumption

In an open economy, the foreign exchange rate (FER) influences incentives for the cross-border shopping of gasoline as well as the opportunity cost of using vehicles and the relative attractiveness of home versus foreign travel. Using monthly regional-level data of gasoline consumption in Iran, we estimate the impact of exchange rate shocks (both in level and volatility) on gasoline demand. We find that positive exchange rate shocks have a negative impact on total gasoline consumption as well as on vehicle users' demand in both short-run and long-run. Furthermore, we find that in the periods that FER is less volatile, the responsiveness of gasoline demand to a change in FER is more pronounced.

Impact of exchange rate shocks on Japanese exports: Quantitative assessment using a structural VAR model

Experiences since the global recession in the late 2000s suggest that, although the fluctuations in the yen’s exchange rate have received considerable attention in the policy debate, global aggregate demand was largely responsible for the fluctuations in Japanese exports in this period. In this paper, we try to disentangle and evaluate the relative importance of the impact of the exchange rate shocks on Japanese exports and the impact of other structural economic shocks using a structural VAR model. First, assuming that there are two exogenous shocks, a global demand shock and an exchange rate-specific shock, we evaluate the relative importance of each shock to Japanese aggregate exports. Second, by extending the analytical framework of Kilian (2009), we analyze the impact of structural shocks associated with oil price fluctuations as additional sources of exogenous shocks because it is widely believed that oil prices play an important role in explaining Japan’s economic performance, and also the yen exchange rate. In the second half of the paper, the relative importance of structural economic shocks and exchange rate movements cannot be attributed to structural shocks in explaining Japanese exports during historic episodes of large exchange rate fluctuations are compared. We find that, while exchange rate shocks were important in explaining export changes in the 1980s, global demand shocks are more dominant in the 1990s and particularly in the 2000s. Oil market specific price shocks also have large impacts on Japanese exports in the 2000s.

Exchange Rates, Employment and Labour Market Rigidity

AbstractIn this paper, we study the effect of labour market rigidity on the impact of exchange rate shocks on employment. We use a panel dataset comprising 22 manufacturing sectors across 23 OECD countries. In our econometric model, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on sectoral employment is mediated by the degree of openness and by a measure of labour market rigidity: the OECD's employment protection legislation (EPL) index. Our results suggest that greater labour market rigidity reduces the impact of exchange rate shocks on employment. This effect is statistically significant for low‐technology sectors.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Nigeria

The paper seeks to determine the effect of exchange rate changes on consumer prices in Nigeria using recursive vector autoregression (VAR) model. It uses data from first quarter 2000 to fourth quarter 2013. The results of the investigation show that exchange rate fluctuation has a positive and insignificant effect on consumer prices and the increase in consumer prices are mainly due to its own shocks and the increase in money supply in the long run. A stable monetary policy with a low inflationary environment will lessen the pressure of exchange rate changes on consumer prices. So, the Central Bank of Nigeria should be less concern with the inflation impact of exchange rate shocks and focus fully on other objectives such as growth and export competitiveness in designing exchange rate policy.

The Impact of Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks in Poland: Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR

This paper follows the Bayesian time-varying VAR approach with stochastic volatility developed by Primiceri (2005), to analyse whether the reaction of output and prices to interest rate and exchange rate shocks has changed across time (1996-2012) in the Polish economy. The empirical findings show that: (1) output appears more responsive to an interest rate shock at the beginning of our sample. Since 2000, absorbing this shock has become less costly in terms of output, notwithstanding some reversal since the beginning of the global financial crisis. The exchange rate shock also has a time-varying effect on output. From 1996 to 2000, output seems to decline, whereas for periods between 2000 and 2008 it has a positive significant effect. (2) Consumer prices appear more responsive to an interest rate shock during the first half of our sample, when Poland experienced high inflation. The impact of an exchange rate shock on prices seems to slightly decrease across time. JEL Classification: C30, E44, E52, F41

Exchange Rate Shocks and Firm Competitiveness in a Small, Export-Oriented Economy: The Case of Finland

This study empirically examines how exchange rate shocks affect firms’ competitiveness in the small, export-oriented country of Finland. Specifically, using Sweden as a benchmark and controlling for cross-country sector and industry effects, the forex competition hypothesis is tested using the impact of exchange rate shocks on Finnish stock returns. The empirical tests reveal statistically significant exchange rate exposure of Finnish stock returns. Comparing pre- versus post-euro periods, equities’ exchange rate exposure is much stronger after the introduction of the euro. Further results indicate that Finnish and Swedish sector and industry stock returns positively co-move. This implies market integration in contradiction to the forex competition hypothesis. However, for some sectors and industries interaction variables reveal that the co-movement is conditional on exchange rate movements, especially in the post-euro period.