Impact Of Exchange Rate Regimes Research Articles

Signaling virtue or vulnerability? The changing impact of EMU on government bond spreads

Abstract Do bond-spreads of developed countries behave differently under different exchange-rate regimes? Focusing on the experience of European monetary integration, we find that the impact of exchange-rate regimes on spreads depends on the macroeconomic context. When inflation counted as the greatest risk to bondholdings, Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) was advantaged over flexible and fixed exchange rates, because of its in-built inflation-control mechanisms. Since debt-sustainability became the primary risk, exchange-rate rigidity has been a liability because it constrains governments’ response to adverse shocks. Employing a moving-window analysis for 12 EMU-members plus 10 ‘comparators’, we find that inflation was penalized under flexible and fixed exchange-rate regimes, but not under EMU. From the early 2010s on, inflation carried no penalty under any exchange-rate regime. Debt and deficit did not affect spreads until the late 2000s. Since then, EMU-members incurred larger and more prolonged spreads penalties for deficits and debt than countries in other exchange-rate regimes.

Do flexible exchange rates matter for monetary autonomy?

This paper studies the impact of exchange rate regimes on monetary autonomy, by applying a propensity score matching (PSM) model for 174 countries over the period 1970–2017. The PSM technique, that we used here to account for self-selection bias and endogeneity, reveals that the average treatment effect of flexible exchange rates on monetary autonomy is statistically significant, providing support for the impossible trinity. We also find that the effect of flexible exchange rates on monetary autonomy is more prominent in advanced economies than in emerging and developing ones. Furthermore, we show that the global financial recession (GFC) affects the monetary autonomy responses to flexible exchange rates. In particular, the GFC causes an increase in the level of monetary autonomy in countries adopting flexible exchange rates during the post-crisis period.

Effectiveness of the Exchange Rate Channel in Monetary Policy Transmission in Pakistan


 
 
 
 
 The exchange rate is one of the most important channels of monetary policy transmission to the real economy. However, the effectiveness of this channel depends on the extent of exchange rate flexibility, degree of international capital mobility, and inflation expectations. Like other emerging economies, Pakistan is typically characterised by weak fiscal and monetary institutions, currency substitution, liability dollarisation, and vulnerability to sudden stops of capital flows. These features compel emerging economies to follow managed exchange rate regimes by restricting the mobility of capital flow. All these factors weaken the effectiveness of the exchange rate channel of monetary policy transmission. This study estimates the effectiveness of the exchange rate channel in monetary policy transmission in Pakistan and explores the impact of exchange rate regimes on the channel’s strength. The study benefitted from the widely used structural VARs methodology and found that the exchange rate channel is less effective in transmitting monetary policy shocks to the real economy. In recent years, however, greater flexibility in the exchange rate has improved the effectiveness of this channel.
 
 
 
 

Impact the choice of Exchange Rate Regime on country Economic Growth: Which anchor currency leading the 21st Century

This study provides a comprehensive currencies history of the exchange rate arrangement of 195 countries; exchange rate regime impacts on countries' growth and macroeconomic stability period of 1961 to 2020. New measurements of foreign exchange regimes and under controlling the income level of high, upper-middle, middle, and lower-middle economies; This Study adopt Generalized Method of Movements (GMM) to investigate the impact of exchange rate regimes on the economies and macro-economic stability through Per Capita GDP, GDP growth, Inflation and Foreign Trade. The U.S. Dollar dominated the currency in world with a high margin. World countries desire to stabilize exchange rates, reduce exchange restrictions and currencies influence. We find that post Bretton woods transition from fixed to flexible management: Strong relations exist among the choice of exchange rate regime and countries growth. Policy implications are clear; the choice of exchange rate arrangement prevails no impact showing on the long-term countries growth, exchange rate anchor currencies of US Dollar, British Sterling Pound, Euro, Chinese Yuan, French franc, Deutschmark, and Basket currencies have a highly significant impact on countries growth of different income level. Suggest Chinese Yuan may consider alternate anchor currency for World and new measure of exchange rate controls developed. Central banks may be secure advanced country bonds, safe assets, and multi-currencies pegged systems adopted for the reserve to overcome the declining effectiveness of exchange controls.

Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes and Euro Area Membership on the Economic Growth of the New Member States from Central and Eastern Europe

The goal of this paper is to study the effects of exchange rate arrangements and euro area (EA) membership on the economic growth of ten new member states (NMS) from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), which joined the European Union (EU) in 2004 and 2007 – the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania. Croatia is excluded from the analysis since it became a EU member relatively late - in 2013. A vector autoregression (VAR) of annual data for the period 2007-2017 is employed. The empirical results provide statistical evidence that flexible exchange rates and EA membership favor the economic growth of the NMS from CEE.

The Sling Effect: Croatia and SEE After the Fall of the Berlin Wall

The concentration of real convergence in a short period before the Great Recession (2001-2008) is a characteristic shared by many countries, but it was particularly pronounced in Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Bulgaria. Bulgaria managed to converge after the Great Recession, but convergence in other mentioned countries was meagre; Slovenia even diverged since 2010. Direct effects of post-Yugoslav wars belong to the past, but indirect effects may have had more persistent effects: a lost decade of the ’90s led to weak institutional development and the creation of the local form of state capitalism, which provides weak fundamentals for economic growth. Monetary policy and exchange rate regimes in the region are mostly centred around stable exchange rates and strive for the introduction of the Euro (Bulgaria and Croatia joined the ERM II in 2020). However, the impact of exchange rate regimes on long-run economic growth is neutral. Preference for credibility building monetary regimes is a legacy of the past. Financial predictability served as a shock absorber and a substitute for good institutions in order to attract inflows of international capital, which flooded ex-communist countries after the emerging markets crisis in the late ’90s. However, when the wave of capital inflows stopped in the Great Recession, more fundamental growth factors emerged, explaining the slow convergence of the majority of SEE countries in the second decade of the 21st century.

Exchange Rate Regimes and Real Sector Performance in Nigeria: A Disaggregated Approach

ors and that a long term relationship exists between exchange rate and the real sector output in Nigeria. The results also establish existence of a clear evidence of differential impact of exchange rate regimes on the dynamics of outputs of the five disaggregated real sectors in Nigeria. The study therefore recommends that the monetary authorities should re-appraise the existing exchange rate policies in Nigeria with the intention of strengthening the controls and interventions to make them more effective and impact positively on the real sector of the economy. The government should also design and develop a broad programme of stimulating domestic productions to increase exports, eliminate non-productive imports and create employment. There is also the need to put in place and implement proactive and harmonized macroeconomic policies that would attract foreign private investment, increase foreign exchange earnings, stimulate exchange rate stability, reduce poverty level and spur overall economic development .

International trade, exchange rate regimes, and financial crises

The main objective of this paper is to study the impact of different exchange rate regimes on international trade and to analyze their performance during crises. To this end, a gravity equation for bilateral trade is estimated for a sample of 191 countries over the period 1970–2016 by adding a set of regressors built from a de factoclassification of exchange rate arrangements and the dates of recognized financial crises. Moreover, we differentiate between anchor currencies and direct and indirect exchange rate arrangements. The gravity model is consistently estimated by including three different types of high-dimensional fixed effects and using PPML estimates. The main empirical findings are: (i) other intermediate exchange rate regimes, between completely fixed and completely flexible, promote flows of goods between countries; (ii) results depend on the anchor currency and indirect arrangements do not have any significant impact on international trade; (iii) systemic banking crises negatively affect trade flows between countries; and (iv) the impact of the exchange rate regimes on trade during crisis depends on the anchor currency and whether the crisis takes place in the exporting or the importing country.

Impact of government balance and exchange rate regime on current account during the economic cycle: evidence from CEE countries

The key goal of this research is to empirically determine whether the fiscal policy and the choice of exchange rate regime played significant role in current account determination in 16 CEE countries, with respect to large cyclical fluctuations of economic activity in the period 1999 – 2012. The methodology is based on the panel estimation of the impact of exchange rate regimes and government balance, being the key explanatory variables, on current account balance. The main results show that contrary to the “twin deficit” hypothesis government balance had nonsignificant and negative association with current account. On the other hand, fixed exchange rate regime contributed to the accumulation of current deficits, especially during the boom years. The results of the estimation are robust to the different model specifications and estimation methods applied. It is indicated that divergence between current and government balance is associated with the fluctuations of the economic activity, since the increase in government revenues during the good years reduced deficits despite pro-cyclical fiscal policy. Also, it has been argued that in the period prior to the crisis, in the countries pursuing fixed regimes current deficit was accumulated at higher pace when compared to countries with floating regimes, despite appreciation pressures deriving from the large inflow of foreign capital. Based on the results of empirical analysis, the recommendations on benefits of floating regimes are given to policy makers in CEE countries.

The impact of exchange rate regimes on economic growth: Empirical study of a set of developing countries during the period 1974–2006

ABSTRACTAn increment in the quantity of services/goods manufactured per-head of the population over time denotes economic growth of a country. Exchange Rate Intermediate Regimes are unable to continue under conditions of capital movement. To examine the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth. This study has kept its focus on the economic growth of a set of developing countries during the years (1974–2006). Fixed effects and pooled regression for 16 developing countries have been incorporated as the methodologies techniques for data. Analysis of data was performed through SPSS. A relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth has been identified through statistical approaches. The results indicated that as compared to flexible exchange regime, growth rate was higher by 1.2% when fixed exchange regime was adopted; and a growth rate of 0.64% was achieved under the intermediate regime when compared with the flexible regime. A positive impact has been identified in exchange rate regimes upon economic growth of the developing countries. Countries following the flexible exchange rates are facing scarcity for the existence of advanced financial systems, which deprives them of enjoying the benefits of flexible regime.

Exchange rate regimes and external financial stability

Financial stability within the framework of the global financial crisis has become a common topic for researchers and practitioners. In order to analyse the impact of exchange rate regimes on financial stability we use both the de jure and de facto exchange rate classifications. We apply the model to a 1999-2010 annual data sample for 135 countries and territories, grouped by the level of economic development. Our second focus is the investigation of the effects of the exchange rate regimes in three economic integration areas (member countries of the European Union 27, the Southern Common Market, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) on financial stability. Our results generally support the central banks? concerns that the flexibility of exchange rate regimes should be reduced in order to sustain financial stability; however, the findings are not robust when using alternative regime classifications.

Capital inflows, exchange rate regimes and credit dynamics in emerging market economies

This paper investigates the impact of the exchange rate regime (ERR) on the cycle of capital flows, the private credit growth rate and the level of dollarization in emerging market economies. We consider two different panels including 12 and 22 countries over the periods 1980–2010 and 1994–2008, respectively. We estimate a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model in order to assess whether the impact of ERR on credit dynamics is affected by the cyclical component of capital flows. Our findings are threefold. First, the ERR has no impact on the cyclical component of capital flows. Second, credit expansion is procyclical in economies with pegged currencies. Third, during capital inflows or low outflows periods, economies with fixed exchange rate regimes show a higher level of dollarization. When outflows are sizeable, ERR no longer impacts the level of dollarization. These results suggest that ERR should be an important variable in conceiving the policy mix to cope with domestic credit expansions and liability dollarization.

The long-run impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows

Notwithstanding the systematic inclusion of an exchange rate variable of some form in studies examining international tourism flows, hardly any research has been carried out to test for a possible exchange rate regime effect. Drawing from recent advances in exchange rate regime classifications, this paper begins to fill this gap by investigating the impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows. The study employs a system generalized methods of moments (SYS-GMM) estimation for tourist arrivals on a panel of 27 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non OECD countries for the period 1980–2011. The results identify multiple exchange rate regime effects and support the importance of maintaining a relatively stable exchange rate to attract international tourist arrivals.

Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation: Evidence from India

Exchange rate stability is crucial for inflation management as a stable rate is expected to reduce domestic inflation pressures through a ‘policy discipline effect’ – restricting money supply growth, and a ‘credibility effect’ – inducing higher money demand and reduced velocity of money. Alternatively, the ‘impossibility trillema’ of Mundell (1961a, 1961b) predicts that in the presence of an open capital account, a stable exchange rate may lead to lack of control on monetary policy and, hence, higher inflation. Using a monetary model of Inflation, this paper investigates the impact of the ‘empirically-claimed’ de facto stable exchange rate regime on inflation in India during different sub-periods of exchange rate stability. The results show that the impact of exchange rate regime on inflation is not visible in the Indian case, which could be because of the offsetting sterilization policy undertaken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) during expansionary money supply growth resulting from its large-scale intervention to even out exchange rate volatility.

How Do Exchange Rate Regimes Affect Firms' Incentives to Hedge Currency Risk? Micro Evidence for Latin America

Using a unique dataset with information on the currency composition of firms' assets and liabilities in six Latin-American countries, I investigate how the choice of exchange rate regime affects firms' foreign currency borrowing decisions and the associated currency mismatches in their balance sheets. I find that after countries switch from pegged to floating exchange rate regimes, firms reduce their levels of foreign currency exposures, in two ways. First, they reduce the share of debt contracted in foreign currency. Second, firms match more systematically their foreign currency liabilities with assets denominated in foreign currency and export revenues--effectively reducing their vulnerability to exchange rate shocks. More broadly, the study provides novel evidence on the impact of exchange rate regimes on the level of un-hedged foreign currency debt in the corporate sector and thus on aggregate financial stability.

Evidence on the impact of exchange rate regimes on bilateral FDI flows

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of a menu of country‐pair exchange rate regime combinations upon bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) flows.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use panel data from 27 OECD and non‐OECD high income countries for the period 1980 to 2003. Instrumental variable estimation of a dynamic panel model within a system generalised methods of moments framework allows us to control for both potential correlation issues and endogeneity bias.FindingsThis paper finds that a currency union is the policy framework most conducive to cross‐border investment. Being a member of EMU also appears to spur greater FDI flows with countries floating their currency vis‐à‐vis the default regime of a double‐float. Country‐pair regime combinations involving one country fixing its currency and the other floating or being a member of EMU, are found not to be more pro‐FDI than the default regime combination. For country‐pairs fixing or pegging their currency to each other, the effect on bilateral FDI flows is the least consistent across alternative specifications and, hence, the most ambiguous.Originality/valueThe contribution is also distinguished by the comparative use of recently developed “natural” or de facto exchange rate regime classification schemes, in addition to the de jure classification published by the IMF.

The Empirics of Exchange Rate Regimes and Trade: Words vs. Deeds

This paper examines the impact of exchange rate regimes on bilateral trade while differentiating the effects of and deeds. Our findings-based on an extended database for de jure and de facto exchange rate classifications-show that while fixed exchange rate regimes increase trade, there is no systematic difference in the effects of policy announcements versus actions to maintain exchange rate stability. The trade generating effect of more stable exchange rate regimes is however more pronounced when words and actions are aligned, both in the short and long-run. Policy credibility therefore plays an important role in determining the effects of de jure and de facto exchange rate arrangements such that deviations between the two could be costly. In addition, we find evidence that (i) the impact of hard pegs such as currency unions is broadly similar to that of conventional pegs; (ii) the currency union and direct peg effects evolve over time; and (iii) the effects of more stable regimes are heterogeneous across country groups.

The Empirics of Exchange Rate Regimes and Trade: Words Vs. Deeds

This paper examines the impact of exchange rate regimes on bilateral trade while differentiating the effects of and deeds. Our findings-based on an extended database for de jure and de facto exchange rate classifications-show that while fixed exchange rate regimes increase trade, there is no systematic difference in the effects of policy announcements versus actions to maintain exchange rate stability. The trade generating effect of more stable exchange rate regimes is however more pronounced when words and actions are aligned, both in the short and long-run. Policy credibility therefore plays an important role in determining the effects of de jure and de facto exchange rate arrangements such that deviations between the two could be costly. In addition, we find evidence that (i) the impact of hard pegs such as currency unions is broadly similar to that of conventional pegs; (ii) the currency union and direct peg effects evolve over time; and (iii) the effects of more stable regimes are heterogeneous across country groups.

Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Selected Countries of Central and Eastern Europe

This study investigates the HBS effect in a panel of nine CEECs during 1993:Q1-2003:Q4 (unbalanced panel). Prior to estimating the model, we analyze several key assumptions of the model (e.g. wage equalisation, PPP and sectoral division) and elaborate on possible consequences of their failure to hold. In the empirical part of the paper, we check the level of integration of the variables in our panel using the Pedroni panel-stationarity tests. We then investigate the internal and external version of the HBS effect with the Pedroni panel-cointegration tests as well as by means of group-mean FMOLS and PMGE estimations to conclude that there is a strong evidence in support of the internal HBS and ambiguous evidence regarding the external HBS. Our estimates of the size of inflation and real appreciation consistent with the HBS effect turned out generally within the range of previous estimates in the literature (0-3 % per annum). However, we warn against drawing automatic policy conclusions based on these figures due to very strong assumptions on which they rest (which may not be met in near future). Finally, following the hypotheses put forward in the literature, we elaborate and attempt to evaluate empirically the potential impact of exchange rate regimes on the magnitude of the HBS effect.

Exchange Rate: Shock Generator or Shock Absorber?

The paper re-assesses the impact of exchange rate regimes on macroeconomic performance. We test for the relationship between de jure and de facto exchange rate classifications on the one hand, and inflation, output growth and output volatility on the other. We find that, once high-inflation outliers are excluded from the sample, only hard exchange rate pegs are associated with lower inflation compared to the floating regime. There is no significant relationship between output growth and exchange rate regimes, confirming results from previous studies. De jure pegged regimes (broadly defined) are correlated with higher output volatility, but this relationship is reversed for the de facto classification. The last result points to a potential endogeneity problem present when the de facto classification is used in testing for the relationship between exchange rate behavior and macroeconomic performance.