Climate Impact Research Articles

An analysis of outdoor thermal comfort impact on pedestrian walking patterns at sub-hour timescales with agent-based modelling

PurposeThis study aims to analyse the impact of outdoor climate, building configuration and locations of public amenities on pedestrians’ walking behaviour and their outdoor thermal comfort. As outdoor climate can rapidly change within minutes, this study maintains that outdoor thermal comfort should be analysed at the pedestrian scale and within a short period to understand people’s walking behaviour and how it may affect urban activities.Design/methodology/approachThis research analyses the thermal stresses experienced by pedestrians and their walking patterns within a sub-hour timeframe in Darling Square, Sydney. The simulation incorporates multiple outdoor climate analyses with agent-based modelling (ABM) simulation; it runs on a parametric modelling platform to predict walking patterns according to the agents’ innate properties, goals and environmental constraints as the weather fluctuates.FindingsThis study demonstrates that mapping outdoor thermal comfort within a shorter timescale could reveal emergent walking patterns that inform pedestrians’ preferences of their surrounding environment and their walking behaviour.Practical implicationsThe findings could inform planners and stakeholders on how outdoor climate and building configuration affect pedestrian walking patterns for improving outdoor space quality during the design process or post-occupancy evaluation.Originality/valueThis study integrates ABM that incorporates multiple agents’ goals and innate properties and a micro-climate analysis on diverse context geometries under sub-hour periods, compatible with the pedestrian walking speed and distances at the neighbourhood scale.

Beyond single-use: a systematic review of environmental, economic, and clinical impacts of endoscopic surgical instrumentation

Background: The evolution of endoscopic surgery has introduced a multitude of instruments, available in both disposable and reusable variants, influencing practices across various surgical specialties. Instrument selection is complex, considering individual preferences and institutional factors such as costs, instrument performance, and factors related to cleaning and sterilization. Notably, environmental sustainability has gained prominence due to the threat of climate change. This review assessed the existing literature to facilitate evidence-informed decision-making, encompassing clinical and economic efficacy, environmental friendliness, and other important criteria. Materials and Methods: Following PRISMA guidelines, searches were conducted in Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science, and The Cochrane Library for studies comparing the environmental impact, costs, instrument performance, and contamination risk of disposable versus reusable instruments or new versus reprocessed disposables in endoscopic surgery. Life-Cycle Assessments (LCAs) were included to quantify the climate impact. Exclusions included veterinary studies, general endoscopic procedures, and novel instruments. Conclusion: The search yielded 15,809 studies, 53 studies meeting the inclusion criteria: 38 compared disposable versus reusable instruments and 15 examined new versus reprocessed disposables. Reusables and/or reprocessed disposables showed favorable environmental and economic outcomes compared to new disposables. Instrument performance was comparable between the two groups. No studies were identified that investigated the clinical implications of contamination risk of disposables versus reusables. Six studies evaluating contamination risk of reusables and reprocessed disposables showed residual pollution after cleaning and sterilization, although data on clinical outcome lacked. Interpretation: This review underscores the environmental benefits of reusables and favors both reusable and reprocessed disposables for their economic advantages. The lack of clear evidence favoring one type over the other in instrument performance necessitates further research. Addressing contamination risks requires additional studies on the clinical impact of residual substances. Future research should report outcomes on environmental sustainability, costs, instrument performance, and contamination risk.

The Impact of Managerial Skills, Organizational Communication, Discipline, and School Climate on Work Engagement in Schools

This study explores the impact of managerial skills, organizational communication, discipline, and school climate on work engagement among teachers and staff in educational institutions. While work engagement is essential for improving school performance and student outcomes, factors influencing it in schools remain insufficiently understood. The research aims to identify specific elements within these four areas that foster higher work engagement, providing insights to enhance teacher satisfaction and productivity. Using a quantitative approach, data will be collected through surveys distributed to teachers and staff across various schools. A structured questionnaire will measure levels of managerial skills, organizational communication, discipline, school climate, and work engagement. Statistical methods, including multiple regression analysis, will analyze the relationships between these variables. The study’s findings are expected to offer practical recommendations for school leaders and policymakers to cultivate a supportive, productive working environment. By presenting an integrated approach, this research contributes to the field by examining the combined effects of multiple factors on work engagement, offering a comprehensive model for enhancing teacher engagement in schools.

Understanding Climate Change by Modeling the Earth's Atmosphere as a Well‐Stirred Tank

AbstractComing to terms with climate change by understanding climate processes and their policy implications is essential not only for climate scientists and policymakers, but also for the general public, for industrial practitioners, and for engineers, including process system engineers. We have developed a simplified linear climate model (SLCM) to enable non‐specialists to explore the essential physical and chemical processes caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Trading‐off simplicity and accuracy, achieved by calibrating model parameters using established simple climate models, the SLCM allows (i) determining the climate impact of given past and future emissions, (ii) determining the amounts of CO2 removal needed to compensate for any unavoidable emissions of CH4 and N2O from agriculture, and (iii) back‐calculating emission pathways to meet specified global warming targets.

Internet image search outputs propagate climate change sentiment and impact policy support

AbstractA critical step in tackling climate change involves structural, system-level changes facilitating action. Despite their ubiquity, little is known about how internet search algorithms portray climate change, and how these portrayals impact concern and action. In a sample of 49 countries, we found that nationwide climate concern, but not nation-level climate impact, predicted the emotional arousal caused by climate change Google Image Search outputs, as rated by a naive sample (n = 383). In a follow-up experiment we randomly assigned another sample (n = 899) to receive the climate change image outputs resulting from searches conducted in countries high or low in pre-existing climate concern, and found that participants exposed to images from countries with high pre-existing concern (compared to low) became more concerned about climate change, supportive of climate policy and likely to act pro-environmentally, suggesting a cycle of climate sentiment propagation systemically facilitated by internet search algorithms. We discuss the implications of these findings for climate action interventions.

Sustainable Tourism Performance Through Green Talent Management: The Mediating Power of Green Entrepreneurship and Climate

This study investigates how green talent management influences green performance, green entrepreneurship, and the green organizational climate. Additionally, it analyzes the impact of green entrepreneurship and green organizational climate on green performance. The research also delves into the mediating roles of green entrepreneurship and green organizational climate within the framework of dynamic capability theory in the tourism and hospitality industries. Data were gathered from employees working in travel agencies and tour operators in Saudi Arabia, with a PLS-SEM analysis conducted on 788 valid responses. The results revealed that green talent management has a positive impact on green performance, green entrepreneurship, and the green organizational climate. Additionally, the study found that both green entrepreneurship and a green organizational climate positively influence green performance. Importantly, the findings underscored the partial mediating roles of green entrepreneurship and green organizational climate in the link between green talent management and green performance. This study enriches the literature by clarifying the mechanisms through which green talent management can be utilized to enhance green performance. Theoretically, the findings expand on dynamic capability theory by emphasizing the importance of green-focused human and organizational resources as dynamic capabilities that enable environmental adaptation and sustainable competitive advantage. Practically, these insights provide actionable implications for tourism and hospitality organizations seeking to improve sustainability practices through green talent management, green entrepreneurship, and a green organizational climate, thereby reinforcing the role of dynamic capabilities in achieving sustained green performance.

Tibetan Peat Records Global Major Explosive Volcanic Eruptions in the Holocene

AbstractMajor explosive volcanic eruptions were important triggers of abrupt climate changes during the Holocene and crucial sources of Hg to the atmosphere, yet there remains limited understanding regarding the long‐range transportation of this volcanic Hg and its imprint in natural archives. Here, we present a reconstruction of Holocene global volcanism based on the anomalies in Hg concentrations, accumulation fluxes, and Hg/C ratios in three high‐resolution peat profiles spanning Eurasia. Our reconstruction reveals that the two Tibetan peat profiles recorded 33 major explosive volcanic eruptions (with 11 eruptions being synchronously detected), which correspond with a French Pyrenees peat record and sulfate anomalies in polar ice cores. Additionally, the major explosive volcanic eruptions recorded in the TP peat profiles coincided with abrupt decreases in solar irradiance during the Holocene, suggesting these eruptions might have had a greater global climate impact. Our results suggest the atmospheric transport of volcanic Hg within the Northern Hemisphere and underscore the significant role played by major explosive volcanic eruptions in precipitating abrupt global climate and environmental changes during the Holocene. This study has implications for deciphering the configuration of volcanic eruption seasons, locations, and magnitudes during the Holocene and aligning the chronology of peat deposits with ice cores.

Chaxu Climate as a Double-Edged Sword: A Moderated Mediation Model of Organizational Justice, Hierarchy Level on Turnover Intention

Research on chaxu climate, a prevalent organizational phenomenon in China, has captured significant academic attention in recent years. This study aims to explain why some employees who experience chaxu climate in hospitality organizations contemplate leaving, while others do not. We propose a moderated mediation model to examine the double-edged sword impact of chaxu climate on turnover intention. Through one qualitative study and two scenarios-based experimental studies, we reveal that organizational justice plays a crucial role as a contextual cue, influencing employees’ attribution of chaxu climate and subsequent turnover intention. Perceived insider status is identified as a mediator. Furthermore, we establish a second-level moderating effect of the hierarchy level, distinguishing between supervisor and front-line employees. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed accordingly.

The Impact of Seasonal Climate on Dryland Vegetation NPP: The Mediating Role of Phenology

Dryland ecosystems are highly sensitive to climate change, making vegetation monitoring crucial for understanding ecological dynamics in these regions. In recent years, climate change, combined with large-scale ecological restoration efforts, has led significant greening in China’s arid areas. However, the mechanisms through which seasonal climate variations regulate vegetation growth are not yet fully understood. This study hypothesizes that seasonal climate change affects net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation by influencing phenology. We focused on China’s Windbreak and Sand-Fixation Ecological Function Conservation Areas (WSEFCAs) as representative regions of dryland vegetation. The Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA) model was used to estimate vegetation NPP from 2000 to 2020. To extract phenological information, NDVI data were processed using Savitzky–Golay (S–G) filtering and threshold methods to determine the start of season (SOS) and end of season (EOS). The structural equation model (SEM) was constructed to quantitatively assess the contributions of climate change (temperature and precipitation) and phenology to variations in vegetation NPP, identifying the pathways of influence. The results indicate that the average annual NPP in WSEFCAs increased from 55.55 gC/(m2·a) to 75.01 gC/(m2·a), exhibiting uneven spatial distribution. The pathways through which seasonal climate affects vegetation NPP are more complex and uneven. Summer precipitation directly promoted NPP growth (direct effect = 0.243, p < 0.001) while also indirectly enhancing NPP by significantly advancing SOS (0.433, p < 0.001) and delaying EOS (−0.271, p < 0.001), with an indirect effect of 0.133. This finding highlights the critical role of phenology in vegetation growth, particularly in regions with substantial seasonal climate fluctuations. Although the overall ecological environment of WSEFCAs has improved, significant regional disparities remain, especially in northwestern China. This study introduces causal mediation analysis to systematically explore the mechanisms through which seasonal climate change impacts vegetation NPP in WSEFCAs, providing new insights into the broader implications of climate change and offering scientific support for ecological restoration and management strategies in arid regions.

Spatial benefit assessment and marine climate response of coastal zone in Fujian Province under cross-system influence.

To gain a scientific understanding of the cross-system impact of coastal zones and promote the sustainable development and protection of coastal areas, we constructed a spatial benefit evaluation system that encompassed both terrestrial and marine systems, focusing on the ecological, economic, and social dimensions. We employed the entropy method, moving average method, and Mann-Kendall trend test to quantitatively characterize the spatial benefits of the coastal zone in Fujian Province, China, and the evolution of the marine climate from 2005 to 2020. Building on this, the grey relational analysis method was applied to investigate the correlation between spatial benefits and marine climate and to explore the trends and magnitude of the impact of marine climate on spatial benefits. During the study period, the spatial benefits of the coastal zone in Fujian Province exhibited a fluctuating pattern of an initial increase followed by a decrease, with spatial benefits varying among cities. The role of the economic system in enhancing spatial benefits was not considerable. Changes in the marine climate aligned with the global warming trend, with the most considerable changes observed in sea level and tropical cyclone frequency and intensity, which are sensitive to human activities. There was a high degree of correlation between coastal zone spatial benefits and marine climate, with seawater salinity being most closely related to spatial benefits, while tropical cyclones showed the weakest correlation. The results of this study support sustainable development efforts in coastal zones.

Escalating threat of human-perceived heatwaves in Brazil

Abstract Heatwaves pose significant threats to socioeconomic and environmental systems, with their intensity and frequency expected to increase due to climate change. Despite their critical impacts, future heatwaves in Brazil remain underexplored, especially from a human-perceived perspective, which is crucial for assessing potential public health impacts. Here, we propose a method to assess heatwaves using the humidex (H) – a climate index that combines temperature and relative humidity to indicate human-perceived heat - alongside traditional temperature-based measures. Using bias-corrected simulations from 10 CMIP6 models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, we quantified projected changes in heatwaves across Brazil. The results indicate that heatwaves will become more severe and prolonged, with greater changes under the SSP5-8.5 scenario by the end of the century, particularly in the North, Northeast, and Central regions. The magnitude of human-perceived heatwaves is expected to rise faster than temperature-based ones, underscoring the need for public health-focused assessments. CMIP6 models strongly agree on increased future heatwaves, potentially tripling population exposure in most Brazilian states, with the Southeast experiencing greater changes due to its larger population. These events are expected not only to affect more people but also to be more severe, exceeding over 60 days per year of serious danger (H > 45°C) by the end of the century under SSP5-8.5. Record-shattering events in the historical period are projected to become the norm by mid-century, highlighting the accelerating nature of these extreme events. Our findings emphasize the importance of considering human-perceived heat in climate impact studies and public health planning to mitigate potential impacts.

Hydrological Response to Climate Change: McGAN for Multi-Site Scenario Weather Series Generation and LSTM for Streamflow Modeling

This study focuses on the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in watersheds and proposes an integrated approach combining a weather generator with a multi-site conditional generative adversarial network (McGAN) model. The weather generator incorporates ensemble GCM predictions to generate regional average synthetic weather series, while McGAN transforms these regional averages into spatially consistent multi-site data. By addressing the spatial consistency problem in generating multi-site synthetic weather series, this approach tackles a key challenge in site-scale climate change impact assessment. Applied to the Jinghe River Basin in west-central China, the approach generated synthetic daily temperature and precipitation data for four stations under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP3-70, SSP5-85) up to 2100. These data were then used with a long short-term memory (LSTM) network, trained on historical data, to simulate daily river flow from 2021 to 2100. The results show that (1) the approach effectively addresses the spatial correlation problem in multi-site weather data generation; (2) future climate change is likely to increase river flow, particularly under high-emission scenarios; and (3) while the frequency of extreme events may increase, proactive climate policies can mitigate flood and drought risks. This approach offers a new tool for hydrologic–climatic impact assessment in climate change studies.

Life cycle assessment of biochar filters for on-site wastewater treatment

Biochar is a promising filter material for wastewater treatment. This study evaluated the environmental (climate, eutrophication, acidification) impacts of biochar filters for onsite wastewater treatment and compared them with those of a conventional sand filter. Using a parameterised life cycle assessment (LCA) approach, these three impact categories were quantified for two designs of biochar filter and a sand filter, used in normal and sensitive areas as defined by Swedish government recommendations. Different scenarios for the biochar filters, with different combinations of biochar supply chain, biochar end-of-life and energy system, were simulated and analysed. The eutrophication impact of the biochar filters was similar to that of the sand filter, while the acidification impact was generally slightly higher than that of the sand filter in sensitive areas, and lower in normal areas. The climate impact of the biochar filter varied considerably, from substantially higher to lower than that of the sand filter, depending on specific scenario. A few scenarios in which biochar filters had lower overall impacts than the sand filter were identified. In general, the biochar filters had lower environmental impacts in a renewable energy context than in a fossil fuel context. Using biochar in landscaping soil was a better end-of-life alternative than combustion. Biochar from syngas-heated pyrolysis performed considerably better than biochar from electricity-heated pyrolysis in a fossil energy context. Direct emissions to air and water from the wastewater treatment process, production of biochar and biochar end-of-life contributed most to the total impacts and variation in these for all biochar systems.

Unveiling the Indian Ocean forcing on winter eastern warming – western cooling pattern over North America

While the tropical Pacific teleconnection to North America has been studied extensively, the impact of the Indian Ocean on North American climate has received less attention. Here, through observational analysis and hierarchy atmospheric model simulations with different complexity, we find that the Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in North American winter climate through a teleconnection termed the Indian Ocean - North America pattern. We show that in the warm Indian Ocean phase, this teleconnection contributes to anomalously cold winters along the west coast of the United States through advection with increased mountain snowfall, while simultaneously leading to warmer conditions over the Great Lakes region. Snow-albedo feedback amplifies these Rossby wave-induced surface anomalies. Remarkably, this teleconnection pattern is at work on both interannual and multi-decadal time scales, with its climatic impact being slightly less pronounced than that induced by tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. Our findings underscore the significance of the Indian Ocean in both the prediction and future projection of North American climate.

Private aviation is making a growing contribution to climate change

Commercial aviation’s contribution to climate change is growing, but the global role of private aviation is not well quantified. Here we calculate the sector’s CO2 emissions, using flight tracker data from the ADS-B Exchange platform for the period 2019 to 2023. Flight times for 25,993 private aircraft and 18,655,789 individual flights in 2019-2023 are linked to 72 aircraft models and their average fuel consumption. We find that private aviation contributed at least 15.6 Mt CO2 in direct emissions in 2023, or about 3.6 t CO2 per flight. Almost half of all flights (47.4%) are shorter than 500 km. Private aviation is concentrated in the USA, where 68.7% of the aircraft are registered. Flight pattern analysis confirms extensive travel for leisure purposes, and for cultural and political events. Emissions increased by 46% between 2019-2023, with industry expectations of continued strong growth. Regulation is needed to address the sector’s growing climate impact.

Which rules to follow? how differences in renewable fuel standards obscure the potential climate impact of transportation fuels

Which rules to follow? how differences in renewable fuel standards obscure the potential climate impact of transportation fuels

Lake sediments on the Adamawa Plateau (Central Cameroon) as archives of climate change and the Bantu impact during the last 4000 years BP

AbstractThis study investigates Late Holocene environmental changes in Central Cameroon induced by the combined effects of climate and human impact. For this purpose, sediments from lakes Dang, Massote, Fonjak and Ngaoundaba were studied through lithologic analysis including mineralogical composition and organic geochemistry combined with radiocarbon dates. From these analyses, the sediments at the base of lakes Massote and Dang cores are respectively dated to 4680–3530 and 4220–3580 cal yr BP, whereas the sediments of lakes Fonjak and Ngaoundaba seem to be younger, respectively dated to 3210–3000 and 1870–1740 cal yr BP. Lake sedimentation is dominated by organic matter (OM) poor deposits (OM < 3%) in the lower sections and OM-rich deposits (OM: 5–54%) in the upper sections. This shift from OM-poor to OM-rich sedimentation induced by climate variations occurred at $$\sim $$ ∼ 2800–2400 cal yr BP. The mineral assemblage is predominantly composed of kaolinite with minor contributions from chlorite, smectite, chlorite/smectite, illite/smectite, quartz, K-feldspar, gibbsite, plagioclase, siderite, hematite and goethite. These sediments are clastic, except for Lake Fonjak core sediments which correspond to peat intercalated with carbonate clay and clastic deposits. Age-depth models suggest that the sedimentation rate was 0.2 mm yr-1 for lakes Dang and Massote before $$\sim $$ ∼ 690–560 cal yr BP and $$\sim $$ ∼ 660–470 cal yr BP, respectively. Thereafter, it increased to 0.8 mm yr-1 in Lake Dang and 0.7 mm yr-1 in Lake Massote. Finally, Late Holocene environment changes in Central Cameroon consisted of the shift of open water lakes to marshy fringes with abundant vegetation induced by human activities and facilitated by increasing seasonality.

Correction: Climate impact and energy use of structural battery composites in electrical vehicles—a comparative prospective life cycle assessment

Correction: Climate impact and energy use of structural battery composites in electrical vehicles—a comparative prospective life cycle assessment

Impact of Climate and Socio-Economic on Irrigation Water Management and Agricultural Water Productivity

Water security and food security are fundamental pillars of sustainable social and economic development [...]

Soil-climatic conditions of the vineyard and biochemical characteristics of the red dry wine ‘Kara-Koysu’ (Republic of Dagestan, Russian Federation)

ABSTRACT The article provides additional information that emphasizes the growing international interest in the impact of climate (temperature, humidity, precipitation, solar activity) on grape yields and the quality of terroir wine. The study deals with the climate gradient of the terroir of the Derbent region of the Republic of Dagestan (Russia), located on the terraced accumulative-coastal plain of the Caspian lowland, stretching for 160 km from north to south in a narrow strip between the coast of the Caspian Sea and the foothills. The influence of soil and climatic conditions on the biochemical characteristics of red dry wines ‘Kara-Koysu’ from Cabernet Sauvignon wingrapes of the 2019–2021 harvest was studied. The growing season occurred in dry, moderately humid conditions in 2019; hot, with a lot of precipitation in 2020 and more extreme conditions in 2021. The conditions of recent years have contributed to the change of almost all the studied indicators of tested wines. Studies have found that the climatic conditions of 2020–2021 were more favorable for obtaining a rich harvest, high-quality wines due to more UV light exposure and precipitation.