Short-run Impact Research Articles

Human Resource Indicators and Bank Performance

Accelerated globalization and the thirst for economic emancipation of the people create demographic shifts from developing countries to developed countries. To assist policymakers in effective decision making regarding labor migration and economic growth, our paper explores the hidden dynamics between labor migration and economic growth in Bangladesh from 1988 to 2020. The study was developed based on the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework to capture long-run and short-run dynamics among the variables. To find the directional relationship, we also perform the Toda Yamamoto Causality test to find the short-run impact on the dependent variables. The existence of co-integration among the variables is demonstrated by the Bounds test result. The empirical results show the long and short-run positive significant relationship between international labor migration and exchange rate. However, Inflation and GDP growth do not have any significant impact on migrant laborers from Bangladesh to abroad. The causality approach indicates a unidirectional causality between labor migration and exchange rate, GDP growth, and exchange rate. This paper suggests that the devaluation of the local currency would be a possible way to boost labor in Bangladesh.

Analisis Pengaruh Pembiayaan LPEI Konvesional dan Syariah, Variabel Ekonomi Makro Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekspor Indonesia

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the relationship between funding provided by LPEI in conventional and sharia forms to export growth, using two separate models to compare the two types of funding. This study also examines the relationship between inflation and the rupiah exchange rate on Indonesia's export growth. The analysis uses monthly data from 2015 to 2022 and ARDL approach in data analysis, with the help of EViews 12 to estimate the long-run and short-run impact of these variables on export growth. The results of this study show that in the short run, neither conventional nor sharia LPEI financing has a significant impact on export growth. The value of exports in the previous period and the previous two periods has a negative effect on current export growth. In contrast, export growth is positively affected by the value of exports in the previous three and four periods. Changes in the rupiah exchange rate in the previous period have a positive effect on export growth in the Islamic LPEI financing model, while changes in the inflation rate have no significant effect on export growth. In the long run, both conventional and Islamic LPEI financing do not have a major impact on export growth. The positive impact on export growth in the Islamic LPEI financing model is caused by fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate in the long run. Changes in inflation do not have a significant impact on export growth based on other macroeconomic variables.

How Do Net Exports and Remittances Impact on Economic Growth in Bangladesh? Insight from ARDL Time Series Model

This study delves into the intricate contribution of net exports and remittances on economic growth of Bangladesh with a focus of their impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Net exports along with remittances are considered as key independent variables influencing the economic landscape of the country. The long-run and short-run effects of net exports and remittances on GDP are analyzed by conducting the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model over time period 1980-1922. The results of this study show that there is a positive effect of net export, remittance and gross capital formation on economic growth. On the other hand, all these independent variables have negative impact in short run and will adjust in long run significantly. As Bangladesh is a large remittance receiving country, export also increases in large volume by gross capital formation which increases domestic investment and output. The effects of remittances on GDP growth and exports on economic growth have each been the subject of much research, but independently. Buckling the payoff of exports and remittances on economic growth has not been studied. To fill this inane, we have tried to show how remittances and exports together boost economic growth. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms through which net exports and remittance inflows shape economic outcomes in Bangladesh, offering insightful information to stakeholders and policymakers who are active in promoting sustainable economic development.

Short-run impact of electricity on social capital: evidence from a rural electricity program

Short-run impact of electricity on social capital: evidence from a rural electricity program

Does hosting FIFA World Cup attract inward FDI? An empirical investigation using sectoral panel data of 12 countries

PurposeThe primary objective is to analyze the direct and short-run impact of hosting the FIFA World Cup on inward FDI, considering both aggregate and sectoral levels. Additionally, the study aims to investigate the moderating role of governance quality on this impact, emphasizing the importance of robust institutional frameworks in attracting FDI.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses panel data spanning 1970–2022, encompassing 12 countries that have hosted FIFA World Cup events. The study employs a linear regression model with a robust weighted least squares (RWLS) estimation method. It incorporates various control variables and the institutional quality as moderating variables, to evaluate the impact of hosting the FIFA World Cup on inward FDI at both aggregate and sectoral levels.FindingsHosting the FIFA World Cup is associated with a significant average increase of $4.33 bn in inward FDI at the aggregate level. Notably, governance quality serves as a critical moderating factor, with well-governed countries experiencing a more substantial increase in FDI, totaling $10.5 bn. At the sectoral level, the results reveal that poorly governed countries attract FDI in primary sectors, while well-governed countries attract FDI in secondary and tertiary sectors. This highlights the nuanced dynamics of FDI attraction depending on the institutional quality of the host countries.Research limitations/implicationsA primary limitation lies in the scarcity of sectoral-level data, constraining the comprehensive study of the relationship between hosting mega-sport events and FDI. Future research could explore alternative data sources and methodologies to overcome this limitation. Additionally, extending the analysis to include other economic indicators beyond FDI could provide a more holistic understanding of the economic implications of hosting major international sporting events.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature by focusing exclusively on the FIFA World Cup and undertaking a comprehensive sectoral analysis. By incorporating governance quality as a moderating variable, it adds a nuanced layer to the understanding of the impact of hosting international events on FDI at the sectoral level. The findings underscore the importance of targeted strategies and robust institutional quality in enhancing FDI attractiveness.

Global Warming in Interaction with Domestic and Foreign Investment: The Indian Case Study

Human actions have a substantial impact on the global environment. The depletion of the ozone layer due to the use of chlorofluorocarbons and the threat of global warming due to the accumulation of "greenhouse gases," carbon dioxide and methane that is released in agriculture, energy production, and transportation are few prominent illustrations of damages to the environment. The advent of these unprecedented repercussions of human activities on a global scale eventually directs to a complex economic policy in the world. Hence, the policies to promote economic growth, equity, trade, and technological change to have a significant impact on the global environmental scenario. Purpose: In this respect, the current study concentrates on the financial activities by a country, specifically, India, in relation to the global warming. The major financial activities in a country are based on domestic as well as foreign investment. The source of the domestic financial investment activities, known as Domestic Investment (DI), considered here are investment in plant, machinery, and equipment purchase. While the source of foreign investment is specified as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Methodology: The study applies Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to find the co-integration between the three variables. Further, the long run impact of domestic investment and short run impact of FDI on carbon dioxide emission are found to be present. Finding: The study finds significant environmental impact of domestic and foreign investment in India. Implication: Further, the study provides important policy implication by suggesting reducing the usage of carbon emission through fossil fuel to improve long run sustainable development in India.

Labor market outcomes during opposite resource shocks: the 2009 and 2012 earthquakes in Italy

The 2009 and 2012 earthquakes in Italy occurred in a close-knit region and time horizon but differed substantially on both the initial shock to the stock and the subsequent flow of resources. This paper considers the short run impact on the dynamic response of labor market outcomes. Both earthquakes lowered employment and labor force participation by more than 0.5%. With its negative effect on the resources available, the 2009 shock led to a drop in real wages of 1.3% and a sharp—but short-lived—widening of the wage gap generated by the skill premium. The 2012 earthquake, which led firms to upgrade their technology, increased wages by 2.2% and led to a more balanced—but persistent—widening of the wage gap. The predictions of a model developed in this paper are consistent with these results.

The Impact of Terrorism on International Trade: A Panel Study for SAARC Countries

This study investigates the impact of terrorism on international trade among SAARC countries over the period 1990 to 2022. the study used international trade as a dependent variable, while Terrorism, GDP, Exchange rate and Real-world GDP are independent variables. Before going toward cointegration tests, the study used unit root tests and concluded that some variables were stationary at the level while others were stationary at the level. Unit root test results suggested using the PMG-ARDL model to estimate the long and short-run impact among variables. GDP positively correlates with trade, suggesting that economic growth encourages trade activities; exchange rate fluctuations have mixed effects depending on the appreciation or depreciation of the currency; and real-world GDP changes have a positive spillover effect on trade within the SAARC region and a significant positive impact on terrorism. Government policymakers should consider the issues of terrorism, insecurity, and law to reduce investor skepticism and fully actualize the potential of their trade hosting.

The relationship between foreign direct investment and trade openness: Evidence from six developed economies

Abstract Subject and purpose of work In recent years, the competition for economic dominance globally has led developed economies increasingly to focus on outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports to other developing nations. However, there has been a notable research gap, with most studies concentrating on assessing the significance of FDI and trade openness in developing countries, while less attention has been paid to developed countries. This study explores the relationship between FDI and trade openness with economic growth in six developed economies. Material and methods Utilising annual data spanning from 1990 to 2022 from the World Bank, the study employs the panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method for analysis. Results The estimated results indicate a negative long-run relationship and a positive short-run effect of FDI in the selected economies. Furthermore, the findings reveal a positive long-run association and a negative short-run impact of trade openness. The causality test indicated a bidirectional relationship between trade openness and economic growth. Conclusions The study suggests that various governments should enhance their investment environments to leverage the benefits of FDI inflows.

The environmental tale of two countries: Determinants of CO2 emissions in South Africa and Australia

This study examines the long-run and short-run impact of GDP, urbanization, exports, agri- cultural activity, air travel, and electricity production on CO2 emissions in South Africa and Australia. Results from the ARDL model show that South Africa's heavy reliance on coal for electricity generation significantly impacts CO2 emissions. Furthermore, South Africa's urban population is associated with a concomitant increase in CO2 emission in the long-run. On the other hand, our results show that agricultural land and air transportation have a negative cor- relation with CO2 emissions in South Africa. These results are markedly different from Aus- tralia's long-run estimates, where agricultural land is identified as the significant contributor to CO2 emissions. Additionally, urbanization in Australia is negatively related to CO2 emis- sions. The findings underscore a significant long-term policy challenge for Australia, as fac- tors such as electricity production, agricultural land usage, air travel, GDP, and exports in- crease CO2 emissions. In the case of South Africa, the policy challenge lies in developing policies that will help the country transition from coal-generated electricity to renewable en- ergy and promote efficient urban planning policies.

Exports, FDI Inflows, Renewable Energy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Evidence from Singapore

The present study captures the impact of exports; FDI inflows and renewable energy on economic growth of Singapore economy by covering time period 1989-2022 in the context of Cobb-Douglas production function. This study applies ARDL approach for obtaining empirical results. The estimated results will further be tested by taking most of the diagnostic tests to make check whether the results are robust or not. The findings of this study reveal that exports; FDI inflows and renewable energy have a positive and statistically significant impact on the economic growth. However, short run impact of renewable energy is witnessed as insignificant while exports and FDI inflows contribute significantly in boosting economic growth. Moreover, labor and capital also play a positive role in enhancing economic growth. Based on these findings; this study suggests that exports; FDI inflows, and renewable energy may be given more importance by expanding their size if domestic production in Singapore is required to be increased.

Toward a Sustainable Development of E-Commerce in EU: The Role of Education, Internet Infrastructure, Income, and Economic Freedom on E-Commerce Growth

The emergence of e-commerce reshaped the traditional trade models, also playing a significant role in meeting the UN sustainable development goals. According to the UN, sustained growth and social development must include resilient infrastructure, foster innovation, allow for better access to information and communications technology, and universal and affordable internet infrastructure. This study explores a multidimensional analysis of e-commerce development in the EU generated by the following factors: education, internet infrastructure, income, and economic freedom. We use an ARDL econometric model and Eurostat data. Additionally, we analyze the time responsiveness of e-commerce growth to changes in these factors. In the long run, our findings identify a stable and positive relationship between e-commerce and all these factors. However, in the short run, our results illustrate significant dynamics between two variables and e-commerce. Specifically, the level of internet access and the percentage of individuals who use the internet daily exhibit a positive short-run impact on e-commerce sales, with the system absorbing shocks within a short period. This research advocates for targeted policies that support innovation, fair competition, and consumer protection in the digital economy. This research provides valuable guidance for policymakers and stakeholders in improving the institutional framework to promote a sustainable development of e-commerce in the EU.

Import shocks and voting behavior in Europe revisited

We provide first evidence for the long-run causal impact that Chinese imports to European regions had on voting outcomes and revisit earlier estimates of the short-run impact for a methodological reason. The fringes of the political spectrum gained ground many years after the China shock plateaued and, unlike an earlier study by Colantone and Stanig (2018b), we do not find any robust evidence for a short-run effect on far-right votes. Instead, far-left and populist parties gained in the short run. We identify persistent long-run effects of import shocks on voting. These effects are biased towards populism and, to a lesser extent, to the far-right.

Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Its Socio-Economic Drivers Nexus: Empirical Evidence from MENA Countries

Carbon dioxide emissions is one of the main climate change causes. Nowadays is considered as one of the most important environmental degradation and air pollution in the world. The relationship between CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and their socio-economic determinants is investigated in this study. It uses empirical analysis of significant impact of the economic growth, the tourism development, the globalization, the population health, the population growth and the energy consumption on our interest variable. Thus, we're going to select an econometric model, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) applied to a sample of 10 MENA countries. Our aim is to measure, long-run and short-run impact of the number of arrivals, the Foreign Direct Investment, government health expenditures, the energy consumption and the population growth rate on the CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. All variables are observed from 1995 to 2020. The methodology adopted in this work is as followed: First, the statistical indicators for the sample are calculated. Secondly, the temporal series stationarity is checked by realizing tests of first and second generation. The Pedroni ARDL and Pesaran cointegration tests are then applied. Finally, Granger causality for panel data is used. The causality analysis between variables is carried out using the Dumitrescu and Hurlin's test. Findings reveal that, in the long term, tourism sector and energy consumption have significant and positive impact on CO<sub>2</sub>. But the economic growth and population growth influenced it negatively and they are statistically significant. In the short term, the dependent variable is statistically impacted by economic growth. The degrees and magnitude of the individual effects of the various variables on the Carbone dioxide emissions vary from country to an other. There are bidirectional and unidirectional relationships causality between different variables. Our findings can be helpful for policy makers seeking to achieve the sustainable development goals in MENA region.

Asymmetric effects of uncertainty on investment: Empirical evidence from India

Investment is envisaged as a prerequisite for improving productivity and growth in any economy. In India, investment has decelerated during the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008, especially after 2011–12, which has spurred a heated discussion regarding causes accountable for elongated slowdown. To this end, we empirically examine the causal nexus between investment and its covariates in an asymmetric framework. The present study finds asymmetric cointegration along with short-run impact asymmetry, long-run reaction asymmetry, and adjustment asymmetry between investment and its covariates. Furthermore, evidence of asymmetric Granger causality is also established. Our study's conclusions have important policy outcomes to combat the economy's downturn in investment.

Exploring the Relationship Between Manpower and Economic Indicator in Indonesia: A 30-Year Analysis

This research investigates the relationship between manpower and economic Indicator in Indonesia over a 30-year period from 1992 to 2022. Specifically, it examines the influence of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Education, Age, Final Consumption Expenditure, Foreign Direct Investment, and Inflation on Wages, alongside the effects of employment and economic growth instruments. This study using Error Correction Model (ECM) along with unit root test, cointegration test, and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) dependent test approach with the result that all of variables are stationary at the 1st difference level, this study aims to see the long-run and to know short-run relationship among the variables. The findings reveal a significant long-term relationship between wages and factors such as GDP (0.0000), higher education level (0.0006), secondary education level (0.0009) government spending (0.0149), and inflation (0.0312), while other variables such as basic education (0.0751), age of labour (0.3256), and Foreign Direct Investment (0.3417) are insignificant, while the short-run impact is seen to be less significant. This research proves that economic growth will always affect wages and the importance of controlling inflation as well as stabilising economic conditions to influence wages positively. Through rigorous statistical testing, this study contributes to understanding the dynamics affecting wages in Indonesia, highlighting the critical role of economic and demographic factors.

Labor scarcity, technology adoption and innovation: evidence from the cholera pandemics in 19th century France

To analyze the impact of labor scarcity on technology adoption and innovation, this study uses the differential spread of cholera across France in 1832, 1849 and 1854, before the transmission mode of this disease was understood. The results suggest that a larger share of cholera deaths in the population, which can be causally linked to summer temperature levels, had a positive and significant short-run effect on technology adoption and innovation in agriculture but a negative and significant short-run impact on technology adoption in industry. These results can be explained by the positive impact of labor scarcity on human capital formation.

Does Retirement and Work Stoppage Impact Body Weight and Waist Circumference Changes in Middle- and Older-Aged Women and Men? Results From the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging.

This study aimed to examine the impact of employment transitions (ETs) on anthropometric changes among middle-aged and older workers (ages 45y+). Using two waves of data from the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging, we analyzed the impact of ETs (stayed working, entered retirement, and stopped working) on change in body weight and waist circumference (WC) on continuous scales as well as categories (≥5% cut-off). Analyses were sex/gender-stratified. Women did not show significant weight or WC change that differed across ETs, but estimated directions suggested those who stopped working were more likely to have ≥5% change in weight. Estimated directions of continuous outcomes for women who stopped working relative to continued workers showed less weight gain and more WC gain. Men who retired gained less weight and had smaller WC gain compared to reference. The findings imply that the short-run impact of exiting the labor force may not exacerbate weight gain.

Economic freedom, institutional quality, and manufacturing development in African countries

ABSTRACT The study examines the long and short-run impact of different explanatory variables on manufacturing development the time span from 1996 to 2021. The results indicated that economic freedom, FDI inflows, financial development, political instability, corruption control, government effectiveness, the rule of law, voice and accountability, and regulatory qualities significantly expand industrialization at the 1% level in the short-run, whereas they significantly reduced industrialization at the 1% level in the long run. African manufacturing transformation is significantly and positively determined by income per capita in the long and short run. The study suggests that policy measures must be taken to combat corruption and improve government effectiveness to achieve manufacturing growth. Maintaining a sound individual and whole institutional quality is very crucial for manufacturing development in the short run.

Impact of Corporate Income Tax on Economic Growth in Zanzibar

This study investigates the impact of corporate income tax on economic growth in Zanzibar from 1990 to 2021. The study employed Vector-Error Correction Model (VECM) to examine the long-run and short-run impact of corporate income tax on economic growth. On the other hand, Granger-Causality-Test was used to determine the causal relationship between the corporate income tax and Economic growth in Zanzibar. The study integrated variables such as corporate income tax, value-added tax, excise duty, and economic growth from the year 1990 to 2021. Data were obtained from the World Bank and TRA websites. The results revealed that, in the long run, corporate income tax had a significant positive effect on economic growth value. However, there was no short-run impact of corporate income tax on economic growth in Zanzibar during that period. The Granger causality test was employed to determine a causal relationship between corporate income tax and economic growth, and the results indicated a unidirectional causal effect from economic growth value to corporate income tax. Furthermore, the study recommends that Governments should consider reducing rates since lower tax rates can encourage investment, promote entrepreneurship, and stimulate economic activity. Potentially leading to high economic growth. Also, the government should engage in a complete re-organisation of the tax administrative machinery to reduce tolerable problems of tax evasion and avoidance.