Impact Analysis Method Research Articles

Observation impact explanation in atmospheric state estimation using hierarchical message-passing graph neural networks

Abstract The impact of meteorological observations on weather forecasting varies with the sensor type, location, time, and other environmental factors. Thus, the quantitative analysis of observation impacts is crucial for the effective and efficient development of weather forecasting systems. However, existing impact analysis methods are dependent on specific forecast systems, because system-specific adjoint models are used and the sensitivity of the observation to the forecast is measured. This study investigates the impact of observations on atmospheric state estimation in weather forecasting systems by developing a novel graph neural network (GNN) model specialized for analyzing the heterogeneous relations between observations and atmospheric states. The observation impact can then be assessed by applying explainable methods to the proposed GNN model, which is independent of forecasting systems. Further, we develop a novel application called `CloudNine,' a system that provides impact analysis for individual observations with visualization. Our GNN model comprises hierarchical message-passing modules that separately analyze spatial correlations between observations at close locations and atmospheric states at close locations and then examine correlations between observations and atmospheric states. To consider the different factors influencing these correlations, we utilized geo-coordinates and types of observations in the attention mechanism of the modules with their feature vectors. We then applied gradient-based explainability methods to quantify the significance of the different observations in the estimation. Evaluated using data from 11 satellites and land-based observations, the results highlight the effectiveness of the proposed model and the visualization of observation impacts, enhancing the understanding and optimization of observational data in weather forecasting.

Molecular dynamics-informed material point method for hypervelocity impact analysis

This paper introduces a framework specifically designed to simulate hypervelocity impact scenarios precisely. The framework utilizes the multiscale shock technique (MSST) from molecular dynamics (MD) to accurately model material states under extreme impact loading conditions, focusing on calculating the equation of state (EOS). A vital aspect of this work is the acquisition and application of the Mie-Grüneisen EOS, which is highly relevant in impact analysis research. The framework employs the material point method (MPM) to conduct analyses of hypervelocity impacts using the derived EOS. This method offers a detailed insight into the dynamic responses of materials subjected to hypervelocity impacts, underscoring the integration of molecular dynamics with the MPM.

Performance of steel protective structure for historical masonry aqueducts against rockfall: Numerical and field studies

This study investigates the design and impact performance of novel steel protection system intended to safeguard historical masonry aqueducts from damage caused by hazardous rocks. The historical aqueduct under consideration is located on the Sumela Monastery campus. To achieve this, we developed a three-dimensional (3D) photogrammetric model of the study area and identified all risky blocks along with their real positions. Subsequently, we conducted 3200 probabilistic rockfall analyses in eight critical trajectories with four different rock sizes to calculate the velocity, kinetic energy, and run-out distance of fallen blocks. In the second part of the study, finite element models of the steel protective structure were created using Abaqus software. A nonlinear dynamic impact analysis method was applied to analyze nine rockfall scenarios with two different geometries and four different sizes. Based on the rockfall and impact analyses, sections of the protection structure were designed using plastic design criteria. The steel protection structure for aqueducts demonstrated high effectiveness against rockfall, with a risk index (Ir) ranging from 0.93 to 1.00 (except for the upper end of the column–beam connection impacts). Even in these scenarios, the structure provided protection by reducing rock energy and altering its trajectory. In the third part, a steel structure was constructed in the field, and a rock cleaning process was carried out. During rock cleaning, punctures occurred while breaking sharp rocks. To mitigate this risk, a parametric study was conducted using a steel angle stopper. The proposed simple steel angle stopper effectively reduced rockfall damage to historical structures by blocking rock passages and rapidly reducing kinetic energy. Ultimately, during the removal of 5000 m³ of hazardous rocks, no damage was inflicted on the historical structure. The protection system showed a near 100 % success rate in safeguarding the aqueduct. This temporary structure can be employed to protect historical structures from rockfall hazards.

Impact of Multi-Energy System and Different Control Strategies on a Generic Low-Voltage Distribution Grid

The rising electricity costs, cost of space heating, and domestic hot water end up driving consumers toward reducing expenses by generating their electricity through devices like photovoltaic systems and efficient combined heat and power plants. When coupled with thermal systems via an energy management system (EMS) in a Multi-Energy System (MES), this self-produced electricity can effectively lower electricity and heating bills. However, MESs with EMSs can serve various purposes beyond cost reduction via self-consumption, such as reacting to variable electricity prices, meeting special grid connection conditions, or minimizing CO2 emissions. These diverse strategies create unique prosumer profiles, deviating significantly from standard load profiles. The potential threat to the power grid arises as grid operators lack visibility into which consumers employ which control strategies. This paper investigates the impact of controlled MESs on the power grid compared to average households and answers whether new control strategies affect the planning strategies of low voltage grids. It proposes a comprehensive four-step toolchain for the detailed simulation of thermal–electrical load profiles, MES control strategies, and grid dynamics. It includes a new method for the grid impact analysis of extreme and average bulk values. As a result, this study identifies three primary factors influencing distribution power grids by MESs. Firstly, the presence and scale of photovoltaic (PV) systems significantly affect extreme values in the grid. Secondly, MESs incorporating combined heat and power (CHP) and heat pump (HP) units impact the overall grid performance, mainly reflected in bulk values. Thirdly, the placement of an MES with heating systems, especially when concentrated in one feeder, plays a crucial role in grid dynamics. Despite the three distinct factors identified as impactful on the power grid, this study reveals that the various control strategies, despite leading to vastly different grid profiles, do not exhibit divergent impacts on buses, lines, or transformers. Remarkably, the impact of MESs remains consistently similar across the range of control strategies studied. Therefore, different control strategies do not pose an additional challenge to the grid integration of MESs.

The “Holistic Approach to the Cultural Heritage Impact Method” (HACHI Method) as a Method for Indicator-Based Impact Analysis: An Application to the Case of Imperial Fora in Rome (Italy)

The “Holistic Approach to the Cultural Heritage Impact Method” (HACHI Method) as a Method for Indicator-Based Impact Analysis: An Application to the Case of Imperial Fora in Rome (Italy)

An empirical assessment of the impact of network effects on competitive processes in the operating systems market

Modern technology markets are characterized by the presence of a network effect, a phenomenon that significantly affects network adoption. While providing the advantage of belonging to a network, network effects can curb the diffusion of alternative technological products, which can negatively influence public welfare. The purpose of this article is to work out a method of a compound impact analysis of direct network effect, critical mass and standardization when assessing changes in the competitive environment on a two-sided software market using the case of operating systems (OS). The theory of network effects constitutes the methodological framework of the study. The research method is an econometric analysis of the impact of the installed base of users, switch of standards and gain of a critical mass of users by applying a basic within model and a difference GMM model. The database consists of monthly country data on website visitors’ activity from the StatCounter web analytics service by desktop, mobile, and tablet devices for the period from 2009 to 2019. The study shows that, due to the saturation effect, markets experience a slowdown in the influence of network effects. The desktop OS market is characterized by the presence of a de facto standard, that is Windows OS, which indicates the monopolization of this segment. OSX, Android, and iOS are industrywide standards. The proposed approach allows analyzing a direct network effect jointly with gain of a critical mass of users and switch of standards.

Study on the carbon footprint impact analysis method of integrated energy system operation in low-carbon park considering multi-domain dynamic characteristics

Low-carbon parks are an important battlefield for China to achieve the goal of peaking carbon neutrality. Accurate and efficient analysis and tracking of park carbon footprint is a necessary measure to reduce carbon and save energy in parks. Aiming at the problems of less research on the carbon footprint of low-carbon parks at home and abroad and the lack of tracking and analysis methods of dynamic influencing factors of carbon footprint, this paper focuses on the carbon footprint of typical low-carbon parks during operation and proposes a dynamic tracking method of the carbon footprint of low-carbon parks that considers the dynamic characteristics of carbon emissions in various fields. In this paper, the hierarchical impact structure of the carbon footprint of low-carbon parks was first constructed, including the impact of population, economy, construction, energy, transportation, and industry. LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index) was used to decompose the macro-level impact of the carbon footprint of low-carbon parks. Secondly, this paper establishes a dynamic simulation model of carbon emissions of low-carbon parks in the fields of building, energy, transportation, and industry, which can realize 8760 hours of dynamic simulation calculation throughout the year. Based on dynamic simulation, this paper carries out single factor sensitivity analysis and combines the Monte Carlo simulation method to complete quantitative calculation of dynamic second-order influence weight of carbon footprint. Finally, a multi-domain impact analysis and tracking method for the carbon footprint of low-carbon parks is obtained.

REVIEW OF REGIONAL TOURISM ARRANGEMENTS IN ORDER TO PRESERVE THE LOCAL WISDOM OF INDIGENOUS PEOPLES IN INDONESIA

Objective: This study aims to determine and analyze regional tourism arrangements in order to preserve the local wisdom of indigenous peoples in Indonesia. Theoretical Framework: This study discusses regional tourism juxtaposed with the preservation of local wisdom by basing on several theoretical and conceptual frameworks such as regulatory review, regional tourism, local wisdom, and indigenous peoples. Some of these reviews are used to focus research to use the same concept so that there is no expansion of meaning. Methodology: This study uses a type of normative legal research with a statutory approach method (statute approach). Data collection in this study was carried out by means of literature studies, and the data analysis techniques used were critical analysis techniques. Findings: Regulations on tourism in several regions, such as in Bali, Bitung and Bunaken, Toba, Labuan Bajo, Raja Ampat, Tengger, and Baduy in their implementation still do not fully pay attention to and involve the values of local wisdom of local indigenous peoples. Research, Practical & Social Implications: This study analyzes regulations on regional tourism which are then analyzed using the Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) method to identify and assess a regulation or legislation by taking into account the impact analysis (both positively and negatively) and benefits or costs. Originality / value: The value of this research is very important to build national legal products and regional legal products for national tourism development that provide protection to the environment and preservation of national culture, especially cultural traditions and wisdom of customary law communities in tourism destination areas, in addition to encouraging economic growth in an equitable manner for local communities.

Impact Analysis and Compensation Methods of Frequency Synchronization Errors in Distributed Geosynchronous Synthetic Aperture Radar

Frequency synchronization error, as one of the inevitable technical challenges in distributed synthetic aperture radar (SAR), has different impacts on different SAR systems. Multi-monostatic SAR is a typical distributed configuration where frequency synchronization errors are tiny in distributed airborne and low earth orbit (LEO) SAR systems. However, due to the long time delay and long synthetic aperture time, the imaging performance of a multi-monostatic geosynchronous (GEO) SAR system is affected by frequency oscillator errors. In this paper, to investigate the frequency synchronization problem in this configuration, we firstly model the echo signals with the frequency synchronization errors, which can be divided into fixed frequency errors and random phase noise. Secondly, we talk about the impacts of the two kinds of errors on imaging performance. To solve the problem, we thirdly propose an autofocus back-projection (ABP) algorithm, which adopts the coordinate descent method and iteratively adjusts the phase error estimation until the image reaches its maximum sharpness. Based on the characteristics of the frequency synchronization errors, we further propose the Node ABP (NABP) algorithm, which greatly reduces the amount of storage and computation compared to the ABP algorithm. Finally, simulations are carried out to validate the effectiveness of the ABP and NABP algorithms.

Dampak Pembangunan Perumahan Terhadap Perubahan Kondisi Lingkungan Di Desa Palasari Kecamatan Legok Kabupaten Tangerang

Rapid population growth and regional development will affect environmental changes. These changes will inevitably have an impact on human life directly or indirectly, with positive results such as meeting human needs and local and regional economic growth, as well as negative results such as a decrease in environmental quality, the impact analysis method produces data obtained then presented in the form of tables, graphs and then described so as to produce information. The results show that in the period between 2010 - 2022 there has been a growth in housing development which resulted in a reduction in the use of rice fields with an area of 66.6 Ha out of a total of 170.0 Ha. In addition, water sources in the dry season have an impact on the community in the area around the housing after the development, In the analysis of total respondents showed 92% impact on land use, 86% impact on water sources, 59% impact on road conditions, 52% impact on drainage.

Surfacic characterization of soft tissues biomechanical properties using impact-based methods: A comparative study

Various methods have been developed to assess the skin stiffness in order to assist the clinician for therapeutic monitoring or these diagnoses. The objective of this work was to compare the performances of a new acoustical characterization method based on impact analysis with those of two existing approaches, namely (i) a suction device, the Cutometer®, and (ii) a digital palpation tool, the MyotonPro®. This new impact analysis method is based on the analysis of the temporal variation of the force obtained during the impact of an instrumented hammer on a cylindrical punch placed in contact with a soft tissue mimicking phantom (Technogel®). The performances of the three aforementioned techniques (sensitivity and resolution) were assessed using homogeneous or bilayer structures with various thickness and rigidity, formed by different soft tissues mimicking gel pads. The impact analysis based method (IBAM) was two times better than the other two approaches in terms of reproducibility and sensitivity. The axial resolution of the IBAM was around 20 times better compared to the two other methods. The results open the way for the development of a cheap, non-invasive and objective method that could be used in the future in the cosmetic industry and in dermatology. This project has received funding from the projects OrthAncil (ANR-21-CE19-0035-03) and from the project OrthoMat (ANR-21-CE17-0004).

Genome-wide quantification of copy-number aberration impact on gene expression in ovarian high-grade serous carcinoma

Copy-number alterations (CNAs) are a hallmark of cancer and can regulate cancer cell states via altered gene expression values. Herein, we have developed a copy-number impact (CNI) analysis method that quantifies the degree to which a gene expression value is impacted by CNAs and leveraged this analysis at the pathway level. Our results show that a high CNA is not necessarily reflected at the gene expression level, and our method is capable of detecting genes and pathways whose activity is strongly influenced by CNAs. Furthermore, the CNI analysis enables unbiased categorization of CNA categories, such as deletions and amplifications. We identified six CNI-driven pathways associated with poor treatment response in ovarian high-grade serous carcinoma (HGSC), which we found to be the most CNA-driven cancer across 14 cancer types. The key driver in most of these pathways was amplified wild-type KRAS, which we validated functionally using CRISPR modulation. Our results suggest that wild-type KRAS amplification is a driver of chemotherapy resistance in HGSC and may serve as a potential treatment target.

Research Progress of Failure Mode Diagnosis Methods for Oil and Gas Field Pipelines

In recent years, the service safety evaluation of oil and gas pipelines in the whole life cycle has attracted the attention of many researchers. This paper summarizes the failure modes of oil and gas pipelines and focuses on four machine learning-based oil and gas pipeline failure mode diagnosis methods: fault tree analysis method, failure expert system evaluation method, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of pipeline failure, failure mode, and impact analysis method, and prospects the development of oil and gas pipeline failure mode diagnosis technology, in order to provide a reference for subsequent research.

Novel method of multiaxis weaving and impact analysis of the ensuing composites

The study aims to develop a novel method of weaving multiaxis preform on conventional weaving machines and analyse impact tolerance of the ensuing composites along with development of finite element analysis model. An extra set of 200 tex carbon fibres, referred as bias fibres, were integrated into carbon fibre plain woven fabric during the weaving stage on a conventional closed reed weaving machine. This was achieved by partial carbon fibre weft insertion at regular intervals from both edges of the fabric. The multiaxis preform was used as ply on top of plain woven carbon fabric plies, each of 160 g per square meter aerial density. The carbon fibre composites were manufactured by infusing bisphenol F epoxy resin as a matrix and 4 plies of carbon fabric by hand layup method. The composites were subjected to low-velocity impact loading at 0.4 m height of 5.12 kg impactor, and force-time history was recorded by the piezoelectric transducer. A comparison of impact loading results showed that the multiaxis woven composites increase impact strength by 18.3% due to the reinforcement of bias fibre. Based on the test results, a finite element analysis model was developed in Ansys v.19 to simulate the stress distribution during impact loading of the multiaxis woven composites.

Pharmacoeconomic analysis of anti-angiogenic drugs for diabetic macular edema

This study comparatively evaluates the clinical and economic feasibility of faricimab and other angiogenesis inhibitors in patients with DME. This article analyzed literature on the efficacy and safety of intravitreal injections (IVI) of ranibizumab 0.5 mg, aflibercept 2 mg, and faricimab 6 mg. A model of medical care was developed for patients with DME receiving anti-angiogenic therapy. Pharmacoeconomic analysis was performed using cost minimization and budget impact analysis (BIA) methods. Modeling time horizon was 2 years. The research was performed from the perspective of the healthcare system of the Russian Federation. The efficacy and safety of faricimab in a personalized regimen (up to one IVI in 16 weeks) are comparable to those of aflibercept and ranibizumab, administered in various regimens. The use of faricimab is associated with the lowest number of IVIs. Over 2 years, the maximum costs of drug therapy were associated with the use of ranibizumab (about 914 thousand rubles), while the minimum costs were associated with the use of faricimab (614 thousand rubles). The reduction in inpatient care costs with faricimab therapy was 36% compared to aflibercept (216 and 201 thousand rubles in inpatient and day hospitals, respectively) and 82% compared to ranibizumab (486 and 451 thousand rubles in inpatient and day hospitals, respectively). BIA demonstrated that the use of faricimab will reduce the economic burden on the healthcare system by 11.3 billion rubles (9.8%) over 2 years. The use of faricimab is a cost-effective approach to treatment of adult patients with DME in Russia.

Integrated Life Cycle Assessment and Techno-economic Analysis for Ionic Liquids-based Biomass Delignification Process

Ionic liquids (ILs) are a sort of green solvent that possess considerable promise for many industrial applications, such as the delignification of biomass. This study conducted an integrated life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) of the utilization of 1 g of ILs for the ionosolv delignification process. [bmim][Cl] was selected as a case study. By using the CML 2001 environmental impact analysis method, 1 g of 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride [bmim][Cl] utilization for the ionosolv delignification process emitted 3.67 g CO2 eq of GWP100, 0.013 g SO2 eq of acidification potential, 0.015 g PO43- eq of eutrophication potential, and 32.417 g 1,4-DCB eq of HTP 20a.

Renewable Energy Sourcing to Enhance Sustainable Manufacturing by Using Madhab’s EEE Impact Analysis Model

The world's increasing energy demand, coupled with the depletion of finite energy resources, necessitates a shift towards sustainable energy solutions. This research explores the multifaceted benefits of substituting conventional fossil fuel-based energy sources with renewable energy in industrial settings, with a focus on sustainable manufacturing. A case study was conducted at a printing and packaging factory in Bhubaneswar, Odisha, to analyze economic, environmental, health, safety, and efficiency factors associated with various energy options based on the Madhab’s EEE (Environmental, Efficiency, Economic) impact analysis method. The study identified solar power generation as the optimal energy source, boasting the lowest EEE impact index of 1.90. Wind energy ranked second, followed by conventional GRID power and DG (Diesel Generator) power sources, which were found to be less favorable due to their higher EEE impact indices. Feasibility assessments revealed that the factory had ample rooftop and vacant land space for solar power plant installation, making it self-sufficient in power generation. The return on investment (ROI) for the solar power project was calculated to be 5.54 years, making it a viable option from a sustainability perspective. Moreover, the solar system could be integrated with the GRID through a reverse metering system, enabling excess energy to be sold back to the GRID. This research underscores the significance of transitioning to renewable energy sources in industries for environmental sustainability, energy security, and economic benefits. It emphasizes the need for similar studies in diverse industrial settings to identify the most suitable energy sources, considering all relevant factors.

Inflation targeting and fiscal policy volatility: Evidence from developing countries

This paper studies the effect of inflation targeting (IT) on fiscal policy volatility. Using data for 83 developing countries over 1985-2020, estimations based on impact analysis methods reveal that IT adoption reduces fiscal policy volatility. This result is robust when using a wide set of alternative specifications related to additional control variables, different samples, alternative measures of the main variables, or alternative estimation methods. Consequently, contributing to the ongoing literature on fiscal policy volatility, our results suggest that reforms of the monetary policy management in the form of IT adoption may provide a useful policy for fighting fiscal discretion towards a reduction of fiscal policy volatility.

Establishing the emission inventory of biogenic volatile organic compounds and quantifying their contributions to O3 and PM2.5 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

O3 and PM2.5 pollution are prominent in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are important precursors of both. However, few studies has been conducted to establish a high-precision BVOC emission inventory by vegetation types and species for the BTH region yet, and to further analyze the contribution of BVOC emissions to O3 and PM2.5 on this basis. This study established an emission inventory of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) in the BTH region using two methods: (a) the coupled method of stock volume conversion and plant function types (PFTs) and (b) MEGAN method. The contributions from different vegetation types to O3 and PM2.5 in the BTH region in July 2018 were simulated with WRF-CMAQ and verified using the O3 and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation potential method. Relatively consistent results were obtained using the different inventory establishment and air quality impact analysis methods. Fruiters, crops, shrubs & grasslands, evergreen forests, and deciduous forests emitted 6.25%, 31.18%, 18.27%, 11.42%, and 32.88% of total BVOCs, respectively. The simulation results showed that BVOCs contributed 23.73% to O3 and 37.99% to SOA in the BTH region. Deciduous trees, such as poplar and Quercus, were the main contributors to O3, while Pinus tabulaefoimis and Quercus were the main contributors to SOA.

Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Risk Based Lot Release Policy for Biological Products in Egypt

For public health and lifesaving, timely access to high-quality biological products is essential. However, barriers including resource scarcity, limited human capacity, and complex supply chains impede this goal. National regulatory authorities should enhance their frameworks and move forward for regulatory convergence and harmonization & enhancing reliance practice in order to address these concerns. A risk-based lot release policy is one of the enablers that ensure implementation of smart regulations and best practices was employed by Egyptian drug authority (EDA) to boost the effectiveness of the lot release framework while upholding safety, efficacy and quality criteria. The legal framework for lot release in Egypt was examined using a regulatory impact analysis method. With a considerable impact on time and cost savings, as well as a better net benefit value, the new risk-based lot release policy has the potential to greatly increase the efficiency of Egypt's LR regulatory system for biological products. Nevertheless, significant challenges and unexpected consequences were also noted, including the need for ongoing capacity building and growing regulatory requirements based on best practices. The findings have major reflections for drug policy makers and regulators looking to enhance their biological product regulatory systems; since the policy's benefits outweigh these possible challenges. This paper offers a full examination of the risk-based lot release policy used by the EDA, Egypt for biological products, assisting in understanding both the benefits and challenges of this approach.