Identify Adaptation Strategies Research Articles

Cash crop farmers’ perceptions of, and adaptation to climate change: A preliminary study of Black Bush Polder, Guyana

Farmers Black Bush Polder, Guyana, have been experiencing changes in weather variability and climate parameters as well as the impacts of those changes on their livelihoods. Understanding farmers’ perception of climate change and their adaptation strategies is crucial to assisting with efforts for developing suitable intervention strategies to combat the effects of climate variability and climate change. In this non-experimental research engaging fifty (50) randomly selected farmers the aim was to: (1) examine how cash crop farmers in Black Bush Polder perceived the effects of climate change; (2) identify adaptation strategies used by farmers in combating the effects of climate change; (3) identify the factors that influence the adaptation strategies chosen by farmers; (4) identify perceived barriers in the implementation of adaptation measures; and (5) make recommendations in light of the difficulties encountered by farmers. A self-administered structured questionnaire survey was used to collect primary data and the responses to the items using a modified Likert scale. Descriptive statistics, and Pearson Correlation Coefficient were used to analyze the data. The results showed that there was variation in both temperature and rainfall in the Black Bush Polder Area. Overall, farmers had a general perception that these variations had an impact on their farming activities as well as on their choice of adaptation measures. Key recommendations made were: planting improved, or more resistant varieties of crops, changing planting times as dictated by rainfall, collection of water in furrows near plants, utilizing drip irrigation systems and techniques for preparing crop beds, and using of shade houses and greenhouses to lessen the effects of climate change.

Climate change awareness and adaptation strategies by smallholder farmers in semi-arid areas of Zimbabwe

ABSTRACT Agricultural production, food, nutrition and income security of smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa are threatened by extreme weather events, such as increased frequency of mid-season dry spells and increased temperatures. Their impacts are exacerbated by the prevalence of sandy soils, characterized by limited water and nutrient retention capacity leading to low crop productivity. In this study, we aimed at assessing farmers' awareness of extreme weather events, identify adaptation strategies and evaluate maize yield from different soil fertility and water management practices. A household survey including 245 smallholder farmers in Marange, Zimbabwe was carried out. The results revealed that farmers were aware of and had experienced extreme weather events. Among adaptation strategies used were soil water-harvesting, use of improved varieties, mulching and planting trees. Maize yield remains significantly low, averaging 0.62 t ha−1 among farmers using some forms of soil fertility and water management strategies. To further understand the reason for low maize yields and improve climate change related adaptation strategies, more research is needed to quantify and confirm management practices applied by farmers, such as fertilizer use and rates, water and nutrient management, use of improved varieties as well as socio-economic factors.

Эмиграция молодежи из Таджикистана в страны Организации экономического сотрудничества и развития: история и современные тренды

Introduction. Being a country with a young age structure, Tajikistan has become a prominent participant of various migration flows in recent years. A large number of labor migrants from Tajikistan to the member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have been reported since 2014, which is associated with a fall in the ruble’s exchange rate and a decrease in incomes of migrants to Russia in currency equivalent. At the same time, traditionally Tajik youth used to to study in Russia and Kazakhstan, but in recent decades the flow to OECD member countries has also increased significantly. Goals. The study aims to identify the causes and features underlying the reorientation of the flows of educational migrants from Tajikistan toward new geographical directions, namely the OECD member countries. Materials and methods. The work basically employs two research methods. Firstly, the statistical method processes data on the scope and structure of educational emigration from Tajikistan. Secondly, the sociological method provides insights into outcomes of sociological surveys and expert interviews (secondary analysis of sociological data). The key sources of information are OECD-related data from the OECD.Stat reports, and the author’s survey (conducted online via Facebook social network — banned in Russia — accounts of several associations of Tajik citizens abroad) among young individuals from Tajikistan who study in OECD member countries. The questionnaire contained 17 questions about adaptation and integration of migrants, educational levels of migrants, age-sex structure, migration channels, reasons for the reorientation of labor migrants toward OECD member countries, resettlement, and sectoral employment in host countries. The convenience sampling yielded a total of was 417 individuals who were then undertaking training programs in Austria, Germany, the U.S., and Canada. The survey was primarily seeking to identify adaptation strategies selected by young emigrants from Tajikistan in OECD member countries. Results. So, the article presents the outcomes of the survey. Half of Tajik university graduates try to continue their studies and/or find a job abroad via the Internet. Actually, many tend to view educational migration as an emigration channel. This process is accompanied by that Tajik citizens take additional training or retraining programs, seek to receive acknowledgement certificates for diplomas of Tajikistan, and undergo corresponding courses in the receiving countries. As a rule, they quickly adapt to labor markets in OECD member countries: it takes ‘less than a month’ (or ‘from 1 to 3 months’) to get a job. The working language for most Tajik migrants is English and German, and they get jobs in the fields of education and medicine, which attests to somewhat increased educational levels of theirs.

Food system resilience during COVID-19

Over the last 70 years, Canadian agriculture has shifted from many small farms that supplied local residents, to fewer large farms designed to maximize production, reduce cost, and target international markets. At present, small local food chains exist as a small fraction of the Canadian food system. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the role of local producers was valued by Canadians. The purpose of this study was to gain insight into the role that local producers played in maintaining food system resilience during the early part of the COVID-19 pandemic. We were particularly interested in identifying adaptation strategies and factors that contributed to (enabled) or worked against (constrained) increasing local food system resilience (i.e. the perseverance of farms and farm production). We also examined the accessibility and sufficiency of current agriculture supports. Eight semi-structured interviews were conducted with Antigonish Farmers’ Market (AFM) producers. Challenges identified include system bottlenecks, increased costs, increased demand, changes in sales, and the need for online literacy. In response to these challenges, AFM producers demonstrated a high degree of adaptability. Half of the study participants accessed agriculture-support related to COVID-19. Other participants expressed discontent with the suitability and accessibility of current support programs available. Opportunities to increase local food system resilience include increasing local support, promoting AFM collaboration, and tailoring agriculture support for small, diversified, local farmers.

Identifying strategies for adaptation of rural women to climate variability in water scarce areas

The current research aims to identify adaptation strategies adopted by rural women of Fars province in dealing with climate variability. This study is applied in terms of purpose, descriptive-correlational in terms of methodology, and field type in terms of data collection. The statistical population were rural women who were members of agricultural households in Fars province, which have been affected by climatic variability in four climatic zones: cold, mild, hot, and very hot. This study was conducted using survey method. A structured questionnaire was designed and its face and content validities were verified using experts' opinions. The size of the studied sample was estimated using Cochran's formula. For sampling, a combined stratified and cluster sampling method was used. Data were collected from 406 respondents from 32 villages in eight counties of Fars province. Then, the data was analyzed. In total, 43 adaptation strategies of rural women were classified in the form of four categories of strategies for development and diversification of income sources, cost management, social capital management, and environmental stress management. The most important adaptation strategy used by rural women against climatic changes has been the cost management strategy. The use of facilities and loans is the most important strategy among the cost management strategies that can lead to reducing the negative effects of climate variability on rural women. Then, the strategy of development and diversification of income sources, management of social capital, and management of environmental tensions were placed in the second to fourth places of adaptation strategies used by rural women under climate variability. The results of this study indicate that the rural women of Fars province are not only passive victims of climate changes, but they act actively and hope to adapt to sudden climate changes. Using prudent strategies, they employ their experience and expertise to reduce the adverse effects of climate variability.

A retrospective analysis of climate adaptation strategies and implications for food and nutrition security among small-scale farmers in South Africa

With the ever-increasing climate change, actions to reduce its negative impact while improving food and nutrition security are critical. This review is a retrospective analysis of climate adaptation strategies and implications for food and nutrition security among small-scale farmers in South Africa. The review used bibliometric analysis and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis to track research on implications of adaptation on food and nutrition security, identify adaptation strategies with implications on food and nutrition security and discuss the implications. The analysis shows a steady growth in the research field; however, whether the pace will accelerate the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 2 by 2030 is unknown. Institutional research collaboration is notable, although weak. The co-occurrence of keywords reflects Climate-Smart Agriculture and food and nutrition linkages, emphasizes the importance of farmers’ perceptions on adopting measures to enhance food and nutrition security and illustrates the risk-vulnerability-resilience nexus. Adaptation measures with implications on food and nutrition security are varied, ranging from individual efforts to government-led initiatives. We recommend strengthening institutional research collaboration to accelerate the pace towards achieving zero hunger, food security and nutrition by 2030. It is also important to have an inclusive policy framework that addresses farmers’ adaptation needs.

Evaluation of General Circulation Models CMIP6 Performance and Future Climate Change over the Omo River Basin, Ethiopia

One of the world’s major issues is climate change, which has a significant impact on ecosystems, human beings, agricultural productivity, water resources, and environmental management. The General Circulation Models (GCMs), specially the recently released (coupled model intercomparison project six) CMIP6 are very indispensable to understand and support decision makers to identify adaptation strategies in response to future climate change in a basin. However, proper selection of skillful GCMs and future climate assessment is a prior task to climate impact studies. The objective of the study is an attempt to appraise the climate model’s performance and future climate scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in the Omo River Basin. The performance evaluation of 20 GCMs of the CMIP6 was properly performed to reproduce the precipitation and the maximum temperature in the basin. Their performance has been carried out against the best selected mean monthly Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) precipitation and European Community Medium Water Range Weather Forecasts Version 5 (ECMWF-ERA5) maximum temperature. The GCMs of the CMIP6 were selected and ranked using the compromise programming method of multi-criteria decision making. The result shows that ensemble models and NorESM2-MM models have been designated to reproduce the precipitation and maximum temperature in the basin respectively. The Mann–Kendall trend test was executed to appraise the trend of selected CMIP6 models, and subsequently, downscaling and bias correction techniques were conducted. The projected seasonal precipitation of June, July, August, September (JJAS) and March, April, May (MAM) shows an increasing trend with 10.86, 17.66, 38.96 and 11.85, 22.1, and 40.7% under SSP2452031-2060, SSP5852031-2060, and SSP5852071-2100 scenarios respectively. Furthermore, increasing trends were detected in MAM by 12.8% and decreasing trends in JJAS were detected by 15.23% under SSP2452071-2100 scenario. The maximum temperature projection will be increased on average by 0.95, 1.78, 1.4, and 3.88 °C in JJAS and 1.53, 2.24, 1.56, and 3.89 °C in MAM under climate change scenarios of near-future SSP2452031-2060, SSP5852031-2060, far-future SSP2452071-2100, and SSP5852071-2100, respectively. Additionally, the basin has shown temporal-spatial climate fluctuation in terms of precipitation and maximum temperature.

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions: A Case Study in Saudi Arabia

In the coming years, climate change is predicted to impact irrigation water demand considerably, particularly in semi-arid regions. The aim of this research is to investigate the expected adverse impacts of climate change on water irrigation management in Saudi Arabia. We focus on the influence of climate change on irrigation water requirements in the Al Quassim (97,408 ha) region. Different climate models were used for the intermediate emission SSP2-4.5 and the high emission SSP5-8.5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios. The FAO-CROPWAT 8.0 model was used to calculate reference evapotranspiration (ETo) using weather data from 13 stations from 1991 to 2020 and for both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the 2040s, 2060s, 2080s, and 2100s. The findings indicated that, for the 2100s, the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios forecast annual average ETo increases of 0.35 mm/d (6%) and 0.7 mm/d (12.0%), respectively. Net irrigation water requirement (NIWR) and growth of irrigation water requirement (GIWR) for the main crops in the Al Quassim region were assessed for the current, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. For SSP5-8.5, the GIWR for the 2040s, 2060s, 2080s, and 2100s are expected to increase by 2.7, 6.5, 8.5, and 12.4%, respectively, compared to the current scenario (1584.7 million m3). As a result, there will be higher deficits in 2100 under SSP5-8.5 for major crops, with deficits of 15.1%, 10.7%, 8.3%, 13.9%, and 10.7% in the crop areas of wheat, clover, maize, other vegetables, and dates, respectively. Optimal irrigation planning, crop pattern selection, and modern irrigation technologies, combined with the proposed NIWR values, can support water resources management. The findings can assist managers and policymakers in better identifying adaptation strategies for areas with similar climates.

English

The research examined farmers’ perception and adaptation strategies to rainfall variability in north-western Katsina. The objectives were to determine the level of rainfall variability using 1976 to 2015 rainfall data; find-out farmers’ perceptions of rainfall variability; determine its effects on farming activities, and identify adaptation strategies within the farming systems. Rainfall data were sourced and established (Rainfall Variability Index, RVI of 1.6) to support the farmers’ perception of very high variability. Some 385 questionnaires were administered to sampled farmers using Krejcie and Morgan’s (1970) from nine selected wards. SPSS (16.0) was used to analyze the results. Findings indicated main adaptation strategies to rainfall variability employed were mixed cropping; use of early maturing crops; irrigation and Fadama farming against rain-fed agriculture; use of chemical fertilizers; reducing land-area of production; abandonment of agricultural activities or; selling of assets. It was concluded that rainfall characteristics negatively affect crop yields and the adaptation strategies have positive contributions to production. It is recommended that farmers should adapt efficient water harvesting techniques; planting of drought-resistant and early-maturing crops as well as dry-planting. Government, on the other hand, should intensify on small irrigation schemes, promote agricultural extension services, and invest in soil-water conservation. Key words: Farmers’ perceptions, adaptation strategies, rainfall variability, Northwestern Katsina.

Groundwater Level Fluctuations in Coastal Aquifer: Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict the Impacts of Climatical CMIP6 Scenarios

Groundwater resources play a crucial role in supplying water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural use. In this study ACCESS-CM2, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, and NESM3 were selected for validation from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In the following, the feedforward neural network was employed to predict monthly groundwater level (GWL) based on the emission scenarios of the sixth IPCC report (SSP2-4.5 and SSp5-8.5) for the next two decades (2021–2040) in the Sari-Neka coastal aquifer near the Caspian Sea, Iran. In this regard, the monthly maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and water table of previous month from four piezometers from 2000 to 2019 were used as input variables to forecast GWL. The evaluation of the three GCM models demonstrated that the ACCESS-CM2 provided the best values of the R2 and RMSE with observation parameters. The results of r, R2, RMSE, and MAE were evaluated for the model and indicated good performance of the model. The results also illustrated that under such mentioned scenarios, the mean monthly temperature would rise approximately from 0.1–1.2 °C. In addition, the mean monthly precipitation is likely to witness changes from -10% to 78% in the next two decades. As a result, this seems to lead to improvement and recharge of groundwater level for the near future. The results can help managers and policymakers to identify adaptation strategies more precisely for basins with similar climates.

Review of adaptations of U.S. Commercial Fisheries in response to the COVID-19 pandemic using the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework.

The COVID‐19 pandemic transformed social and economic systems globally, including fisheries systems. Decreases in seafood demand, supply chain disruptions, and public safety regulations required numerous adaptations to maintain the livelihoods and social resilience of fishing communities. Surveys, interviews, and focus groups were undertaken to assess impacts from and adaptive responses to the pandemic in commercial fisheries in five U.S. regions: the Northeast, California, Alaska, the U.S. Caribbean, and the Pacific Islands. Fishery adaptation strategies were categorized using the Resist–Accept–Direct (RAD) framework, a novel application to understand social transformation in a social‐ecological system in response to a disturbance. A number of innovations emerged, or were facilitated, that could improve the fisheries' resilience to future disruptions. Fishers with diversified options and strategic flexibility generally fared better, i.e., had fewer disruptions to their livelihoods. Using the RAD framework to identify adaptation strategies from fishery system actors highlights opportunities for improving resilience of fisheries social‐ecological systems to future stressors.

Limited access and use of climate information by small-scale sugarcane farmers in South Africa: A case study

South Africa is continuously experiencing significant irregular climate attributable to both climate change and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Air temperature increases, sporadic precipitation patterns and increased frequency of extreme events are expected across the region. Agricultural production, either rainfed or irrigated will be affected by such changes. Small-scale farmers are disproportionately vulnerable owing to a series of factors constraining them from adaptation. Hence, a shift of the attention towards identifying adaptation strategies for small-scale farmers is necessary. This study assessed the use of climate information by small-scale sugarcane farmers to cope with and adapt to climate variability. The study employed a face-to-face interview following a questionnaire guide to collect data from sixty-six farmers in the Swayimana community, KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa. Using descriptive analysis, the study analysed access and/ or lack of access to climate information, observed climate changes by the small-scale farmers and the perceived benefits of accessing and using climate information. The study results suggest that most sugarcane small-scale farmers do not access climate information. The inaccessibility of climate information sources and lack of capacity to respond to the provided information greatly hinders the access to and the use of climate information. These research findings provide evidence of the vulnerability differences across the farming group within the sugarcane industry in South Africa.

LATIN AMERICAN RESIDENTS' SURGICAL EDUCATION AFTER THE PANDEMIC: WHAT STRATEGIES HAVE EMERGED FOR ADAPTING TO THIS NEW ERA?

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative effect on surgical education in Latin America, decreasing residents' surgical training and supervised clinical practice. This study aimed to identify strategies that have been proposed or implemented to adapt surgical training and supervised clinical practice to COVID-19-related limitations in Latin America. A literature review was performed between April and May 2021, divided into two searches. The first one sought to identify adaptation strategies in Latin America for surgical training and supervised clinical practice. The second one was carried out as a complement to identify methodologies proposed in the rest of the world. In the first search, 16 of 715 articles were selected. In the second one, 41 of 1,637 articles were selected. Adaptive strategies proposed in Latin America focused on videoconferencing and simulation. In the rest of the world, remote critical analysis of recorded/live surgeries, intrasurgical tele-mentoring, and surgery recording with postoperative feedback were suggested. Multiple adaptation strategies for surgical education during the COVID-19 pandemic have been proposed in Latin America and the rest of the world. There is an opportunity to implement new strategies in the long term for surgical training and supervised clinical practice, although more prospective studies are required to generate evidence-based recommendations.

Model‐based evaluation of climate change impacts on rice grain quality in the main European rice district

AbstractCrop simulation models are used to forecast the impacts of climate change on yield levels and to identify adaptation strategies. Nevertheless, crop quality has been almost neglected in available studies, despite its relevance on the economic and nutritional value of agricultural products. We present here a modeling study to evaluate the future trends of rice quality in the main European rice district, placed in Northern Italy. A rice growth model was coupled with a library of models of rice milling and cooking suitability, using current farmer management and baseline/future climatic scenarios as input for the simulations. Four general circulation models (NOResm, MIROC‐ESM, HadGEM2‐ES, and GISS‐ES) and two CO2 representative concentration pathways (2.6, 8.5) were used to generate 20‐year future climatic data centered on 2030 and 2070. Spatially distributed simulations were run at 2 × 2 km spatial resolution considering a Japonica (Loto) and a Tropical Japonica (Gladio) rice cultivar. The results depicted an overall decline in rice quality, especially for Loto (−5% of milling suitability considering GISS‐ES‐2.6 in all time frames; −8% in 2030 and −20% in 2070 under HadGEM2‐ES‐8.5). While the revenues of millers are expected to decrease of about 50 € t−1 in 2030 and 100 € t−1 in 2070 for Loto, minor changes are projected on Gladio milling and cooking suitability, except in the worst scenario in 2070 (−10 to −5% of cooking suitability, corresponding to −30 to −72 € t−1). Despite the need of reducing models uncertainty, this study provides variety‐specific indications on rice grain quality ready‐to‐use for crop specialists, farmers, and millers and that could raise the interest of different stakeholders of the agri‐food sector, including food scientists, geneticists, and policy makers.

Production Characteristics and Strategies for Adapting to the Impact of Climate Change on Cassava Whiteflies and Viruses in Tanzania

Cassava is Africa’s most important food security crop and sustains about 700 million people globally. Survey interviews of 320 farmers in three regions of Tanzania to identify their production characteristics, and interviews with 20 international whitefly/virus experts were conductedto identify adaptation strategies to lessen the impacts of cassava whiteflies and viruses due to climate change in Tanzania. Structured and pre-tested interview schedules were conducted using a multistage sampling technique. Most of the farmers (66.8%) produced cassava primarily for food, and relied mainly on their friends (43.8%) and their farms (41.9%) for cassava planting materials. Farmers significantly differed in their socio-economic and production characteristics except for gender and access to extension support (P < 0.01). A significant association was found between extension support, sources of planting materials, and reasons for growing cassava with both the control of cassava viruses and the control of whiteflies by the farmers. A significantly higher number of farmers controlled cassava viruses (38.1%) than cassava whiteflies (19.7%). The adaptation strategies most recommended by experts were: integrating pest and disease management programs, phytosanitation, and applying novel vector management techniques.The experts also recommended capacity building through the training of stakeholders, establishing monitoring networks to get updates on cassava pests and disease statuses, incorporating pest and disease adaptation planning into the general agricultural management plans, and developing climate change-pest/disease models for accessing the local and national level impacts that can facilitate more specific adaptation planning in order to enhance the farmers’ adaptive capacities.

Microbial soil biodiversity in beech forests of European mountains

Fagus sylvatica L. is widely distributed across Europe thanks to its high adaptability in a wide variety of soils and climate. Microbial communities are essential for maintaining forest soil quality and are responsible for forest ecosystem functioning; the ability of soil microorganisms to respond to abiotic stressors (e.g., organic carbon losses, water scarcity, temperature changes) is crucial under ongoing environmental changes and also supports tree health. In this study, soil samples were collected from pure beech plots as part of the COST Action project CLIMO to find differences in microbial community characteristics and evaluate the effects of soil properties on microbial communities across gradients of elevation, latitude, and longitude. Positive relationships were found between organic carbon content and both microbial abundance and dehydrogenase activity. Dehydrogenase and catalase activities were elevation-correlated and microbial activities were longitude-correlated. In the most southern beech plot, the microbial community was abundant and displayed high activities. This shows that microbial communities could help tree populations to better adapt to predicted changes in environmental conditions in the future. We suggest that research into forest health and beech performance should also test soil microbial enzymatic activity, particularly under changing climate conditions, to assist in identifying adaptation strategies.

In vitro methane production from silages based on Cenchrus purpureus mixed with Tithonia diversifolia in different proportions

Climate change (CC) affects food production, mainly those based on livestock systems. Producers must identify adaptation strategies to ensure the production, during periods of drought, and lack of forage. Besides contributing to CC, high emissions of ruminal methane (CH4) are energy loss potentially usable for livestock production. The objective was to estimate in vitro ruminal gas production (RGP) and determine the CH4 emissions from silages. Treatments were made with forage of Cenchrus purpureus mixed with Tithonia diversifolia T1= C.purpureus at 100%; T2= C.purpureus/ T.diversifolia in 33/67 percent ratio; T3= C.purpureus/ T.diversifolia 67/33; and T4= T.diversifolia at 100%. Samples of silages were analyzed, and they were inoculated with strains of Lactobacillus paracasei (T735); then they were fermented in vacuum-sealed bags for 67 days. RGP and CH4 were measured at 2, 4, 8, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36, and 48 hours. Additionally, modeling of CH4 production kinetics was conducted, using different equations. The results indicate that the highest cumulative CH4 production was for T1. This kinetics was represented using the Gompertz model. In conclusion, the inclusion of T.diversifolia to C.purpureus silages contributes to the decrease of methane at the ruminal level, which constitutes an adaptation practice at climate change.

Allowing Users to Benefit from Tree Shading: Using a Smartphone App to Allow Adaptive Route Planning during Extreme Heat

This paper presents the outcomes from a joint research project that aims to develop a smartphone application/online platform to model the most thermally comfortable active transport route to a planned destination using heat information and tree shading (Shadeway). Here, we provide a summary of our systematic review of academic literature and applications from the Google Play and Apple App Store, to identify current knowledge about personal adaptation strategies when navigating travel in cities during high temperatures. The review identifies that there is a lack of attention regarding the use of smartphone applications to address urban thermal comfort for active transport by government and private industry. We then present the initial results of original research from three community focus groups and an online survey that elicited participants’ opinions about Shadeways in the City of Greater Bendigo (CoGB), Australia. The results clearly show the need for better management of Shadeways in CoGB. For example, 52.3% of the routes traveled by participants suffer from either no or poor levels of shading, and 53 of the shaded areas were located along routes that also experience heavy traffic, which can have an adverse effect on perceptions and actual safety. It is expected that this study will contribute to improve understanding of the methods used to identify adaptation strategies to increasingly extreme temperatures.

Identifying adaptation strategies to climate change for Mediterranean olive orchards using impact response surfaces

The identification of agricultural adaptation strategies to offset climate change impact requires a detailed knowledge of the response of crop systems under future climatic conditions. To carry out such an analysis for Mediterranean olive orchards, an improved version of the AdaptaOlive simulation model combined with perturbed climate (PC) and sensitivity analysis using impact response surfaces (IRSs) have been applied. As a result, phenology, crop yield and irrigation requirements were projected for olive orchards located at five locations representative of Southern Spain, with contrasting current and future weather conditions. Thus, under near future conditions using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, large differences in olive yield response were found depending on the location, with an average yield increase of 19% for locations with cold winters, and reductions of 34% for locations with mild winters. Olive yield response could show abrupt changes even for limited changes in weather variables when critical thresholds are exceeded. IRSs and PC enabled the identification of such site-specific thresholds in terms of changes in temperature and rainfall from the baseline conditions. Thus, temperature increases of 3 °C generated null crop damage linked to flowering failure caused by lack of chilling in Jaen or Granada, whereas in Seville the damage was severe in 74% of the years. The analysis of the impacts of water stress and temperature increase on olive yield revealed the critical processes that need to be addressed by promoting adaptation measures. Said processes were not the same for entire analyzed area; in Seville —which has mild winters— cultivars with an earlier flowering date should be recommended, but in Granada —which has cold winters and low rainfall— the introduction of deficit irrigation strategies would be the appropriate recommendation. These results confirm the need to conduct weather sensitivity analyses, as provided by PC and IRSs, in order to develop site-specific adaptation strategies for the Mediterranean olive orchards. This procedure was required due to the non-smooth response to weather components, and the high spatial variability of weather conditions and olive orchard characteristics in Southern Spain.

Projected Streamflow in the Kurau River Basin of Western Malaysia under Future Climate Scenarios

Climate change-induced spatial and temporal variability of stremflow has significant implications for hydrological processes and water supplies at basin scale. This study investigated the impacts of climate change on streamflow of the Kurau River Basin in Malaysia using a Climate-Smart Decision Support System (CSDSS) to predict future climate sequences. For this, we used 25 reliazations consisting from 10 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). The generated climate sequences were used as input to Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate projected changes in hydrological processes in the basin over the period 2021–2080. The model performed fairly well for the Kurau River Basin, with coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBIAS) of 0.65, 0.65 and –3.0, respectively for calibration period (1981–1998) and 0.60, 0.59 and −4.6, respectively for validation period (1996–2005). Future projections over 2021–2080 period show an increase in rainfall during August to January (relatively wet season, called the main irrigation season) but a decrease in rainfall during February to July (relatively dry season, called the off season). Temperature projections show increase in both the maximum and minimum temperatures under the three RCP scenarios, with a maximum increase of 2.5 °C by 2021–2080 relative to baseline period of 1976–2005 under RCP8.5 scenario. The model predicted reduced streamflow under all RCP scenarios compared to the baseline period. Compared to 2021–2050 period, the projected streamflow will be higher during 2051–2080 period by 1.5 m3/s except in February for RCP8.5. The highest streamflow is predicted during August to December for both future periods under RCP8.5. The seasonal changes in streamflow range between –2.8% and –4.3% during the off season, and between 0% (nil) and –3.8% during the main season. The assessment of the impacts of climatic variabilities on the available water resources is necessary to identify adaptation strategies. It is supposed that such assessment on the Kurau River Basin under changing climate would improve operation policy for the Bukit Merah reservoir located at downstream of the basin. Thus, the predicted streamflow of the basin would be of importance to quantify potential impacts of climate change on the Bukit Merah reservoir and to determine the best possible operational strategies for irrigation release.