ICU Occupancy Research Articles

A Study of Multiple Comparison Tests with Imprecise and Uncertain Information

Objectives: This study aims to demonstrate the application of multiple comparison tests in situations involving imprecise, incomplete, and uncertain observations. Such data arises in many practical situations. Methods: Five post hoc multiple comparison tests viz. Fisher's LSD test, Tukey's HSD, Bonferroni ( ), Scheffe, and Hochberg ( ) method is utilized within a one-way design framework, with a significance level of 5%. Simulation studies are applied to the empirical level and power calculation. Findings: The study shows that Tukey's HSD ( ) shows the highest power in the determinant part, not the indeterminant part, compared to other tests. For, e.g., For (5, 5, 5, 5) with location parameter (0, .5, 1, 0), the power interval shows [.3953, .3584] where [ ]. Overall, and shows a prominent result and are preferable compared to other tests. From application, NANOVA provided the P-value is [<.001, <.001], i.e., tests are statistically significant. The P-value of the tests for pairs [1, 1] and [1, 1] accepted (greater than .05) means the average daily ICU occupancy of corona patients of more than 55 years and between 35 and 55 age groups are not equal. Similarly, other tests also show the same. Novelty: Neutrosophic Multiple comparisons are still developing, and computer programs are still unavailable to support them. We have applied a simulation study to check the performance of the tests. Keywords: Multiple comparisons, NANOVA, Neutrosophic Statistics, Indeterminacy, Covid-19

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of respiratory syncytial virus infection among people aged 60 and above in Beijing City

Objective: To investigate the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of RSV among patients aged ≥60 years in Beijing from 2015 to 2023. Methods: Based on the respiratory pathogen surveillance system, samples of upper respiratory tract infections (URTI), non-severe community-acquired pneumonia (nsCAP) and severe community-acquired pneumonia (sCAP) among people aged ≥60 years were collected from 28 sentinel hospitals in 16 districts of Beijing from January 2015 to December 2023. Swab samples were collected from URTI within one week, and lower respiratory tract samples from nsCAP and sCAP were collected. Demographic and epidemiological data were also collected. Various respiratory pathogens including RSV were detected. Results: From January 2015 to December 2023, a total of 20 349 cases of acute respiratory infections aged ≥60 years were included, with the RSV-positive rate of 1.54% (313/20 349, 95%CI: 1.39%-1.68%). Among them, the total RSV-positive rates of older people during the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods of COVID-19 were 1.59% (207/13 006, 95%CI: 1.38%-1.81%), 0.82% (38/4 650, 95%CI: 0.56%-1.08%) and 2.53% (68/2 693, 95%CI: 1.93%-3.12%), respectively. The difference in RSV-positive rate was statistically significant (P<0.001). Based on the sampling time of cases, the RSV epidemic season for older people in Beijing was from October to March of the following year, with a peak period in December or January of the following year. In the post COVID-19 pandemic, there were very few RSV-positive cases detected in the elderly from April to June 2023, with only one positive case detected in May and one in June. The RSV-positive rate of older people increased significantly from October to December, reaching 11.75% (51/383) in December. Among 263 RSV-positive cases in the elderly, RSV-A, RSV-B and unclassified type accounted for 43.35% (114/263), 29.28% (77/263) and 27.38% (72/263), respectively. Since 2020, there has been a subtype conversion, with RSV-B being the main focus. Among 197 elderly cases that have complete clinical data, the main symptoms were cough (86.8%, 171/197), sputum (80.2%, 158/197) and fever (73.60%, 145/197). About 24.87% (49/197) of elderly cases experienced complications. The hospitalization mortality rate was 4.57% (9/197), and the hospitalization rate was 78.68% (155/197). The ICU occupancy rate was 1.99% (36/197). The mechanical ventilation usage rate was 13.32% (33/197), and the length of hospital stay [M (Q1, Q3)] was 12 (9, 16) days. Conclusion: In Beijing, the RSV infection rate is relatively low during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the prevalence of COVID-19 is relatively high. In 2023, there was no out-of-season outbreak of RSV infection among the elderly. Elderly RSV infection cases have multiple complications, severe diseases, and poor prognosis.

Predictive Modeling of COVID-19 Intensive Care Unit Patient Flows and Nursing Complexity: A Monte Carlo Simulation Study.

This study aimed to develop a Monte Carlo simulation model to forecast the number of ICU beds needed for COVID-19 patients and the subsequent nursing complexity in a French teaching hospital during the first and second pandemic outbreaks. The model used patient data from March 2020 to September 2021, including age, sex, ICU length of stay, and number of patients on mechanical ventilation or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Nursing complexity was assessed using a simple scale with three levels based on patient status. The simulation was performed 1000 times to generate a scenario, and the mean outcome was compared with the observed outcome. The model also allowed for a 7-day forecast of ICU occupancy. The simulation output had a good fit with the actual data, with an R2 of 0.998 and a root mean square error of 0.22. The study demonstrated the usefulness of the Monte Carlo simulation model for predicting the demand for ICU beds and could help optimize resource allocation during a pandemic. The model's extrinsic validity was confirmed using open data from the French Public Health Authority. This study provides a valuable tool for healthcare systems to anticipate and manage surges in ICU demand during pandemics.

Utilizing disease transmission and response capacities to optimize covid-19 control in Malaysia

ObjectivesPublic Health Social Measures (PHSM) such as movement restriction movement needed to be adjusted accordingly during the COVID-19 pandemic to ensure low disease transmission alongside adequate health system capacities based on the COVID-19 situational matrix proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO). This paper aims to develop a mechanism to determine the COVID-19 situational matrix to adjust movement restriction intensity for the control of COVID-19 in Malaysia.MethodsSeveral epidemiological indicators were selected based on the WHO PHSM interim guidance report and validated individually and in several combinations to estimate the community transmission level (CT) and health system response capacity (RC) variables. Correlation analysis between CT and RC with COVID-19 cases was performed to determine the most appropriate CT and RC variables. Subsequently, the CT and RC variables were combined to form a composite COVID-19 situational matrix (SL). The SL matrix was validated using correlation analysis with COVID-19 case trends. Subsequently, an automated web-based system that generated daily CT, RC, and SL was developed.ResultsCT and RC variables were estimated using case incidence and hospitalization rate; Hospital bed capacity and COVID-19 ICU occupancy respectively. The estimated CT and RC were strongly correlated [ρ = 0.806 (95% CI 0.752, 0.848); and ρ = 0.814 (95% CI 0.778, 0.839), p < 0.001] with the COVID-19 cases. The estimated SL was strongly correlated with COVID-19 cases (ρ = 0.845, p < 0.001) and responded well to the various COVID-19 case trends during the pandemic. SL changes occurred earlier during the increase of cases but slower during the decrease, indicating a conservative response. The automated web-based system developed produced daily real-time CT, RC, and SL for the COVID-19 pandemic.ConclusionsThe indicators selected and combinations formed were able to generate validated daily CT and RC levels for Malaysia. Subsequently, the CT and RC levels were able to provide accurate and sensitive information for the estimation of SL which provided valuable evidence on the progression of the pandemic and movement restriction adjustment for the control of Malaysia.

The impact of quality-adjusted life years on evaluating COVID-19 mitigation strategies: lessons from age-specific vaccination roll-out and variants of concern in Belgium (2020-2022)

BackgroundWhen formulating and evaluating COVID-19 vaccination strategies, an emphasis has been placed on preventing severe disease that overburdens healthcare systems and leads to mortality. However, more conventional outcomes such as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and inequality indicators are warranted as additional information for policymakers.MethodsWe adopted a mathematical transmission model to describe the infectious disease dynamics of SARS-COV-2, including disease mortality and morbidity, and to evaluate (non)pharmaceutical interventions. Therefore, we considered temporal immunity levels, together with the distinct transmissibility of variants of concern (VOCs) and their corresponding vaccine effectiveness. We included both general and age-specific characteristics related to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Our scenario study is informed by data from Belgium, focusing on the period from August 2021 until February 2022, when vaccination for children aged 5-11 years was initially not yet licensed and first booster doses were administered to adults. More specifically, we investigated the potential impact of an earlier vaccination programme for children and increased or reduced historical adult booster dose uptake.ResultsThrough simulations, we demonstrate that increasing vaccine uptake in children aged 5-11 years in August–September 2021 could have led to reduced disease incidence and ICU occupancy, which was an essential indicator for implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions and maintaining healthcare system functionality. However, an enhanced booster dose regimen for adults from November 2021 onward could have resulted in more substantial cumulative QALY gains, particularly through the prevention of elevated levels of infection and disease incidence associated with the emergence of Omicron VOC. In both scenarios, the need for non-pharmaceutical interventions could have decreased, potentially boosting economic activity and mental well-being.ConclusionsWhen calculating the impact of measures to mitigate disease spread in terms of life years lost due to COVID-19 mortality, we highlight the impact of COVID-19 on the health-related quality of life of survivors. Our study underscores that disease-related morbidity could constitute a significant part of the overall health burden. Our quantitative findings depend on the specific setup of the interventions under review, which is open to debate or should be contextualised within future situations.

Hospitalization forecast to inform COVID-19 pandemic planning and resource allocation using discrete event simulation

Purpose: This study aims to address the pressing need for accurate forecasting of healthcare resource demands during the COVID-19 pandemic. It presents a novel approach that combines a stochastic Markov model and a discrete event simulation model to dynamically predict hospital admissions and daily occupancy of hospital and ICU beds.Design/methodology/approach: The research builds upon existing work related to predicting COVID-19 spread and patient influx to hospital emergency departments. The proposed model was developed and validated at San Juan de Alicante University Hospital from July 10, 2020, to January 10, 2022, and externally validated at Hospital Vega Baja. The model involves an admissions generator based on a stochastic Markov model, feeding data into a discrete event simulation model in the R programming language. The probabilities of hospital admission were calculated based on age-stratified positive SARS-COV-2 results from the health department's catchment population. The discrete event simulation model simulates distinct patient pathways within the hospital to estimate bed occupancy for the upcoming week. The performance of the model was measured using the median absolute difference (MAD) between predicted and actual demand.Findings: When applied to data from San Juan hospital, the admissions generator demonstrated a MAD of 6 admissions/week (interquartile range [IQR] 2-11). The MAD between the model's predictions and actual bed occupancy was 20 beds/day (IQR 5-43), equivalent to 5% of total hospital beds. For ICU occupancy, the MAD was 4 beds/day (IQR 2-7), constituting 25% of ICU beds. Evaluation with data from Hospital Vega Baja showcased an admissions generator MAD of 2.42 admissions/week (IQR 1.02-7.41). The MAD between the model's predictions and actual bed occupancy was 18 beds/day (IQR 19.57-38.89), approximately 5.1% of hospital beds. The ICU occupancy MAD was 3 beds/day (IQR 1-5), making up 21.4% of ICU beds.Practical implications: The dynamic predictions of hospital admissions, ward beds, and ICU occupancy for COVID-19 patients proved highly valuable to hospital managers, facilitating early and informed planning of resource allocation. Additionally, this study underscores the importance of utilizing simulation techniques to predict and manage hospital occupancy levels, thereby enhancing decision-making in hospital bed management, not only during pandemics but also during regular periods.Originality/value: This study introduces a novel hybrid approach that combines stochastic modeling and discrete event simulation to forecast healthcare resource demands during the COVID-19 pandemic. The methodology's effectiveness in predicting admissions and bed occupancy contributes to improved resource planning and situational awareness.

Characteristics and outcome of COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU: a nationwide cohort study on the comparison between the consecutive stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands, an update.

Previously, we reported a decreased mortality rate among patients with COVID-19 who were admitted at the ICU during the final upsurge of the second wave (February-June 2021) in the Netherlands. We examined whether this decrease persisted during the third wave and the phases with decreasing incidence of COVID-19 thereafter and brought up to date the information on patient characteristics. Data from the National Intensive Care Evaluation (NICE)-registry of all COVID-19 patients admitted to an ICU in the Netherlands were used. Patient characteristics and rates of in-hospital mortality (the primary outcome) during the consecutive periods after the first wave (periods 2-9, May 25, 2020-January 31, 2023) were compared with those during the first wave (period 1, February-May 24, 2020). After adjustment for patient characteristics and ICU occupancy rate, the mortality risk during the initial upsurge of the third wave (period 6, October 5, 2021-January, 31, 2022) was similar to that of the first wave (ORadj = 1.01, 95%-CI [0.88-1.16]). The mortality rates thereafter decreased again (e.g., period 9, October 5, 2022-January, 31, 2023: ORadj = 0.52, 95%-CI [0.41-0.66]). Among the SARS-CoV-2 positive patients, there was a huge drop in the proportion of patients with COVID-19 as main reason for ICU admission: from 88.2% during the initial upsurge of the third wave to 51.7%, 37.3%, and 41.9% for the periods thereafter. Restricting the analysis to these patients did not modify the results on mortality. The results show variation in mortality rates among critically ill COVID-19 patients across the calendar time periods that is not explained by differences in case-mix and ICU occupancy rates or by varying proportions of patients with COVID-19 as main reason for ICU admission. The consistent increase in mortality during the initial, rising phase of each separate wave might be caused by the increased virulence of the contemporary virus strain and lacking immunity to the new strain, besides unmeasured patient-, treatment- and healthcare system characteristics.

Surgical management of mastoiditis with intratemporal and intracranial complications in children. Outcome, complications, and predictive factors.

Intratemporal or intracranial complications of acute mastoiditis are often of significant severity, can be life-threatening, and require prompt and usually aggressive treatment. This study focused on analyzing the outcomes and complications of different surgical techniques used in intracranial and intratemporal complications of acute mastoiditis, the most common complication of acute otitis media. A retrospective study of pediatric patients with mastoiditis with intratemporal and intracranial complications was designed at the Niño Jesús University Children's Hospital in Madrid, Spain, from 2005 to 2021. Of 417 patients with mastoiditis, 112 patients developed intratemporal and intracranial complications, with subperiosteal abscess being the most frequent complication. The most frequently isolated pathogens were Streptococcus pneumoniae, Streptococcus pyogenes, and Fusobacterium necrophorum. The most used surgical technique was myringotomy with placement of transtympanic drainage, in 86.6% of all cases. In patients with intracranial complications, neurosurgical procedures were necessary for 19.2%, with craniotomy with mastoidectomy being the most frequent. Most of the cases evolved favorably, and only 5.4% of the patients required surgical reintervention, being more frequent in intratemporal complications. In terms of complications, we found cases of neutropenia in 3.6%, neurological sequelae in 5.4%, and permanent hearing loss in 2.7%. There was a favorable evolution with a low incidence of reoperation and sequelae within our series. The surgical technique of choice correlated with the severity of the complication. If the mean size of the abscess exceeds 20mm, incision and drainage, along with myringotomy and tube placement, should be considered as the initial treatment. Closed mastoidectomy should be reserved for deteriorating of clinical evolution or acute mastoiditis with intracranial complications. Intracranial and multiple concomitant complications were associated with a more extended hospital stay, ICU occupancy, neurosurgical intervention, and risk of neurological sequelae and neutropenia. Conversely, intratemporal complications may result in permanent hearing loss.

Prognostic Analysis of 558 Emergency Tracheal Intubation Patients

Objective: To observe and analyze the prognosis and factors of hospitalized patients with emergency tracheal intubation. Methods: From January 2015 to December 2018, the hospitalized patients undergone emergency endotracheal intubation in Union Hospital Affiliated to Fujian Medical University were retrospectively analyzed. The primary goal was in-hospital mortality 30 days after intubation; the secondary observation indicators were intubation causes, causes of death, intubation operation site (surgical ward or medical ward) and time (daytime or off-hours), ICU admission, etc. The differences of the above indexes and the risk factors of mortality were analyzed. Results: 558 patients with emergency endotracheal intubation were included in the study. The hospital mortality rate was 66.8%, showing a downward trend year by year; the most common causes of intubation were respiratory system diseases, cardiovascular system and nervous system diseases. The proportion of patients receiving emergency intubation in medical ward was significantly higher than that in surgical ward, and the mortality was also significantly higher than that in surgical ward (<I>P</I><0.05); there was no significant difference in the intubation time between the dead patients and the surviving patients (<I>P</I>=0.36). The ICU occupancy rate of patients who died in hospital was significantly lower than that of patients who survived (<I>P</I>=0.00). Of the survival patients, the rate of cardiopulmonary cerebral resuscitation after intubation decreased significantly (<I>P</I>=0.04). In the death patients after intubation, the mean arterial pressure and venous oxygen saturation before intubation were significantly lower than those in the survival patients (<I>P</I>=0.00), and the shock index was significantly higher than that in the survival patients (<I>P</I>=0.00). Conclusion: The prognosis of patients with emergency endotracheal intubation is poor; The in-hospital mortality is as high as 66.8%; Intubation in surgical ward and ICU occupancy after intubation both are the risk factors to reduce the in-hospital mortality.

Burden of hospital admissions and resulting patient interhospital transports during the 2020/2021 SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Saxony, Germany

Secondary transports of patients from one hospital to another are indicated for medical reasons or to address local constraints in capacity. In particular, interhospital transports of critically ill infectious patients present a logistical challenge and can be key in the effective management of pandemic situations. The state of Saxony in Germany has two characteristics that allow for an extensive evaluation of secondary transports in the pandemic year 2020/2021. First, all secondary transports are centrally coordinated by a single institution. Second, Saxony had the highest SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and the highest COVID-19 associated mortality in Germany. This study evaluates secondary interhospital transports from March 2019 to February 2021 in Saxony with a detailed analysis of transport behaviour during the pandemic phase March 2020 to February 2021. Our analysis includes secondary transports of SARS-CoV-2 patients and compares them to secondary transports of non-infectious patients. In addition, our data show differences in demographics, SARS-CoV-2- incidences, ICU occupancy of COVID-19 patients, and COVID-19 associated mortality in all three regional health clusters in Saxony. In total, 12,282 secondary transports were analysed between March 1st, 2020 and February 28th, 2021, of which 632 were associated with SARS-CoV-2 (5.1%) The total number of secondary transports changed slightly during the study period March 2020 to February 2021. Transport capacities for non-infectious patients were reduced due to in-hospital and out-of-hospital measures and could be used for transport of SARS-CoV-2 patients. Infectious transfers lasted longer despite shorter distance, occurred more frequently on weekends and transported patients were older. Primary transport vehicles were emergency ambulances, transport ambulances and intensive care transport vehicles. Data analysis based on hospital structures showed that secondary transports in correlation to weekly case numbers depend on the hospital type. Maximum care hospitals and specialized hospitals show a maximum of infectious transports approximately 4 weeks after the highest incidences. In contrast, standard care hospitals transfer their patients at the time of highest SARS-CoV-2 case numbers. Two incidence peaks were accompanied by two peaks of increased secondary transport. Our findings show that interhospital transfers of SARS-CoV-2 and non-SARS-CoV-2 patients differ and that different hospital care levels initiated secondary transports at different times during the pandemic.

ICU Mortality Across Prepandemic and Pandemic Cohorts in a Resource-Limited Setting: A Critical Care Resiliency Analysis From South Africa

Hospital adaptation and resiliency, required during public health emergencies to optimize outcomes, are understudied especially in resource-limited settings. What are the prepandemic and pandemic critical illness outcomes in a resource-limited setting and in the context of capacity strain? We performed a retrospective cohort study among patients admitted to ICUs at two public hospitals in the KwaZulu-Natal Department of Health in South Africa preceding and during the COVID-19 pandemic (2017-2022). We used multivariate logistic regression to analyze the association between three patient cohorts (prepandemic non-COVID-19, pandemic non-COVID-19, and pandemic COVID-19) and ICU capacity strain and the primary outcome of ICU mortality. Three thousand two hundred twenty-one patients were admitted to the ICU during the prepandemic period and 2,539 patients were admitted to the ICU during the pandemic period (n = 375 [14.8%] with COVID-19 and n = 2,164 [85.2%] without COVID-19). The prepandemic and pandemic non-COVID-19 cohorts were similar. Compared with the non-COVID-19 cohorts, the pandemic COVID-19 cohort showed older age, higher rates of chronic cardiovascular disease and diabetes, less extrapulmonary organ dysfunction, and longer ICU length of stay. Compared with the prepandemic non-COVID-19 cohort, the pandemic non-COVID-19 cohort showed similar odds of ICU mortality (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.90-1.25; P = .50) whereas the pandemic COVID-19 cohort showed significantly increased odds of ICU mortality (OR, 3.91; 95% CI, 3.03-5.05 P < .0005). ICU occupancy was not associated with ICU mortality in either the COVID-19 cohort (OR, 1.05 per 10% change in ICU occupancy; 95% CI, 0.96-1.14; P = .27) or the pooled non-COVID-19 cohort (OR, 1.01 per 10% change in ICU occupancy; 95% CI, 0.98-1.03; P = .52). Patients admitted to the ICU before and during the pandemic without COVID-19 were broadly similar in clinical characteristics and outcomes, suggesting critical care resiliency, whereas patients admitted to the ICU with COVID-19 showed important clinical differences and significantly higher mortality.

Overview of Geriatric Trauma in an Urban Trauma Center in Eastern China: Implications from Computational Intelligence for Localized Trauma-Specific Frailty Index System Design

Due to the lifestyle and activity of the aging population, it is expected that geriatric trauma will increase and become one of the major challenges in health care. The objective of this study was to determine epidemiological differences between geriatric trauma patients and their younger counterparts, and to find the implications for localized Trauma-Specific Frailty Index (TSFI) system design. This study was a retrospective analysis of adult patients registered in the Trauma Registry, comparisons were made between the geriatric patients, aged over 65 years old, and the younger patients, aged 18–64 years old. Variables were collected include demography, injury mechanism, type, severity of injuries sustained, and outcomes. From July 2018 to July 2021, 2594 trauma patients were evaluated. Injury severity score (ISS) in the geriatric patients’ group is not higher than the younger patients’ group statistically (P = 0.066), and results in increased ICU occupancy and mortality risk as compared with the younger patients (P < 0.05). The majority of geriatric patients suffered falls from low heights and traffic accidents. The geriatric patients most suffered isolated injuries of the extremities/pelvis (31.8%) commonly. In contrast to the younger patients, they had more injuries of the head/neck or polytrauma (P < 0.05). This study provided a snapshot of the trauma burden in a proportion of the urban geriatric patients in Eastern China. The geriatric patients are unlike their younger counterparts, and their unique features should be considered in the future development of computational intelligence, particularly in the case of localized TSFI system design.

Infection with SARS-CoV-2 variant Gamma (P.1) in Chile increased ICU admission risk three to five-fold.

The 2021 wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Chile was characterized by an explosive increase in ICU admissions, which disproportionately affected individuals younger than 60 years. This second wave was also accompanied by an explosive increase in Gamma (P.1) variant detections and the massive vaccine rollout. We unveil the role the Gamma variant played in stressing the use of critical care, by developing and calibrating a queueing model that uses data on new onset cases and actual ICU occupancy, symptom's onset to ICU admission interval, ICU length-of-stay, genomic surveillance, and vaccine effectiveness. Our model shows that infection with the Gamma (P.1) variant led to a 3.5-4.7-fold increase in ICU admission for people younger than 60 years. This situation occurred on top of the already reported higher infection rate of the Gamma variant. Importantly, our results also strongly suggest that the vaccines used in Chile (inactivated mostly, but also an mRNA), were able to curb Gamma variant ICU admission over infections.

Intraoperative dexmedetomidine use is associated with lower incidence of acute kidney injury after non-cardiac surgery

Background Previous studies have shown that perioperative dexmedetomidine could reduce the incidence of postoperative AKI in cardiovascular surgery, however, its effectiveness in the non-cardiovascular surgery patient population has not been reported. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of intraoperative dexmedetomidine on the incidence of postoperative AKI and postoperative ICU admissions in patients undergoing non-cardiovascular surgery. Design and setting A single-center retrospective cohort study obtained from the database of the Center for Anesthesia and Surgery, the Third Xiangya Hospital. Patients Inpatients between 18 and 75 years of age who were admitted to our hospital for non-cardiovascular surgery from 2012 to 2019. Results Overall 2391 patients who used dexmedetomidine intraoperatively were analyzed in comparison to 4552 patients who did not use dexmedetomidine after one-to-two matching. The two cohorts had similar baseline values and demographic characteristics. The incidence of AKI was lower in patients with intraoperative dexmedetomidine use than in the nonuse group (OR 0.60, p < .001). The rate of severe renal failure needing dialysis was also lower than in the nonuse group (β = –0.02, p < .05). After adjusting for confounding factors, the rate of AKI was still lower in the dexmedetomidine group. The rate of postoperative ICU admissions and in-hospital deaths were similar in the two groups (p > .05). Conclusion For non-cardiovascular surgery patient population, intraoperative use of dexmedetomidine was associated with a lower incidence and less severity of postoperative AKI. However, there was no significant correlation with postoperative ICU occupancy or in-hospital mortality. Further prospective RCTs are needed in the future.

Prediction of hospitalisations based on wastewater-based SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology

Wastewater-based epidemiology is widely applied in Austria since April 2020 to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. With a steadily increasing number of monitored wastewater facilities, 123 plants covering roughly 70 % of the 9 million population were monitored as of August 2022. In this study, the SARS-CoV-2 viral concentrations in raw sewage were analysed to infer short-term hospitalisation occupancy. The temporal lead of wastewater-based epidemiological time series over hospitalisation occupancy levels facilitates the construction of forecast models. Data pre-processing techniques are presented, including the approach of comparing multiple decentralised wastewater signals with aggregated and centralised clinical data. Time‑lead quantification was performed using cross-correlation analysis and coefficient of determination optimisation approaches. Multivariate regression models were successfully applied to infer hospitalisation bed occupancy. The results show a predictive potential of viral loads in sewage towards Covid-19 hospitalisation occupancy, with an average lead time towards ICU and non-ICU bed occupancy between 14.8-17.7 days and 8.6–11.6 days, respectively. The presented procedure provides access to the trend and tipping point behaviour of pandemic dynamics and allows the prediction of short-term demand for public health services. The results showed an increase in forecast accuracy with an increase in the number of monitored wastewater treatment plants. Trained models are sensitive to changing variant types and require recalibration of model parameters, likely caused by immunity by vaccination and/or infection. The utilised approach displays a practical and rapidly implementable application of wastewater-based epidemiology to infer hospitalisation occupancy.

Increased mortality in ICU patients ≥70 years old with COVID-19 compared to patients with other pneumonias.

Patients over 70 years old represent a substantial proportion of the COVID-19 ICU population and their mortality rates are high. The aim of this study is to describe the outcomes of patients ≥70 years old admitted to Dutch ICUs with COVID-19, compared to patients ≥70 years old admitted to the ICU for bacterial and other viral pneumonias, with adjustments for age, comorbidities, severity of illness, and ICU occupancy rate. Retrospective cohort study including patients ≥70 years old admitted to Dutch ICUs, comparing patients admitted with COVID-19 from March 1st 2020 to January 1st 2022 with patients ≥70 years old admitted because of a bacterial and other viral pneumonia, both divided in a historical (i.e., January 1st 2017 to January 1st 2020) and current cohort (i.e., March 1st 2020 to January 1st 2022). Primary outcome is hospital mortality. 11,525 unique patients ≥70 years old admitted to Dutch ICUs were included; 5094 with COVID-19, 5334 with a bacterial pneumonia, and 1312 with another viral pneumonia. ICU-mortality and in-hospital mortality rates of the patients ≥70 years old admitted with COVID-19 were 39.7% and 47.6% respectively. ICU- and hospital mortality rates of the patients who were admitted in the same or in an historical time period with a bacterial pneumonia or other viral pneumonias were considerably lower (19.5% and 28.6% for patients with a bacterial pneumonia in the historical cohort and 19.1% and 28.8% in the same period, for the patients with other viral pneumonias 20.7% and 28.9%, and 22.7% and 31.8% respectively, all p < 0.001). Differences persisted after correction for several clinical characteristics and ICU occupancy rate. In ICU-patients ≥70 years old, COVID-19 is more severe compared to bacterial or viral pneumonia.

Impact of ICU bed availability on ovarian cancer surgical hospitalization rates during the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.

The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, which began in 2020, disrupted healthcare services. Reports of changes in surgical activities coincide with the outbreak period. We aimed to identify if changes could be determined in hospitalization rates of ovarian cancer patients from 2016 to 2020, comparing pre-pandemic and pandemic levels. Aggregated data were obtained from the State of São Paulo Secretary of Health regarding ovarian cancer clinical and surgical hospitalization, both Coronavirus disease-specific ICU and infirmary bed occupation rates, average social distancing rates, coronavirus disease 2019 incidence, mortality, and lethality rates. We performed the joinpoint analysis to verify if there were changes regarding hospitalization rates during this period. We also calculated hospitalization rate ratios and tested if they were correlated with pandemic-related variables. Hospitalization rates in the state fell, coinciding with the pandemic. Surgical hospitalization rate ratios were inversely correlated with Coronavirus disease-specific ICU bed occupation rates during the third trimester of 2020, with a Pearson's correlation coefficient of -0.50 (95%CI -0.78 to -0.05, p=0.03). These results demonstrate the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic on the treatment of conditions that compete for the same healthcare resources.

Hospital admissions in Austria during the COVID-19 Pandemic – a rapid analysis for 2020 and 2021

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic posed a substantial shock to health service provision, in particular regarding hospital services. The reasons and also rationales for reduced health service provision were manifold ranging from limited supply due to resource restrictions, limited demand in order to avoid infections or due to reduced incidence of various diseases, and postponement of elective services. Nevertheless, the provision of services for acute care at an adequate level is paramount to avoid patient harm. Methods Hospital admissions were analysed via administrative DRG data reported by Austrian hospitals. We compared health service provision on a monthly basis between 01/2018 and 12/2021. Services were classified according to ICD-10 and encompassed admissions due to acute heart failure, stroke, accidents, knee and hip surgery and breast cancer surgery. Results Our findings show that hospital admissions for acute heart failure decreased by up to 25% between 03/2020 and 05/2020. In contrast, no significant difference to the initial pre-pandemic levels could be observed in the later stages of the pandemic. Stroke admissions remained at the initial levels throughout the whole period of analysis, while a substantial decrease (up to 50%) in admissions because of accidents was observed whenever severe NPIs were in place. Knee and hip surgery levels dropped in line with increasing ICU occupancy rates caused by COVID-19 patients. Decreases in breast cancer surgery could only be observed (up to 20%) during the four months of the pandemic (03-06/2020). Conclusions Our analysis provides an aggregated insight into service provision management in Austrian hospitals throughout the pandemic. While acute care was continuously provided for most areas of diseases and elective surgeries were widely postponed in line with pressure on ICU capacities, the decline in breast cancer surgery demands attention and further clarification of whether this decline was supply- or demand-driven. Key messages • During the pandemic inpatient acute care services were continuously provided for most diseases in Austrian hospitals while elective surgeries were postponed in line with pressure on ICU capacities. • The pandemic posed a substantial challenge to service provision management in hospitals and unwarranted levels of service provision so far indicate areas of action for future (pandemic) preparedness.

Diné Navajo Resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic.

ObjectiveTo date, there are no studies of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the Navajo Nation, US. The primary objective of this manuscript is to understand whether counties with a higher proportion of Navajo (Diné) population also had higher cases and deaths of COVID-19 and whether these dropped with vaccination.MethodWe undertook a cross-sectional analysis of county level data from March 16, 2020—May 11, 2021. Data were obtained from public repositories and the US Census for the Navajo Nation, including northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and northwestern New Mexico. The primary outcome measure is the number of individuals with confirmed cases or deaths of COVID-19. A secondary outcome was COVID-19 vaccinations.ResultsThe 11 counties in Navajo Nation have a wide variation in the percent Navajo population, the resources available (ICU beds and occupancy), and COVID-19 outcomes. Overall, there was a substantial increase in the number of cases from March 16 –July 16, 2020 (the height of the pandemic) with a doubling time of 10.12 days on Navajo Nation. The percent Navajo population was a strong predictor of COVID-19 cases and deaths per million population. COVID-19 vaccinations were inversely associated with COVID-19 cases and deaths in these counties.ConclusionsThe COVID-19 pandemic on the Navajo Nation is a story of resilience. Navajo Nation was one of the hardest hit areas of the United States, with peak cases and deaths due to COVID-19. With an aggressive vaccination effort, these cases and deaths were strikingly curtailed, showing the resilience of the Navajo (Diné) people.

Risk Factors for Postoperative Pneumonia: A Case-Control Study.

BackgroundPostoperative pneumonia is a preventable complication associated with adverse outcomes, that greatly aggravates the medical expenses of patients. The goal of our study is to identify risk factors and outcomes of postoperative pneumonia.MethodsA matched 1:1 case-control study, including adult patients who underwent surgery between January 2020 and June 2020, was conducted in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University in China. Cases included all patients developing postoperative pneumonia within 30 days after surgery, defined using consensus criteria. Controls were selected randomly from the matched eligible population.ResultsOut of 17,190 surgical patients, 264 (1.54%) experienced postoperative pneumonia. Increased age, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emergency surgery, postoperative reduced albumin, prolonged ventilation, and longer duration of bed rest were identified as significant risk factors independently associated with postoperative pneumonia. Regarding prognostic implications, postoperative pneumonia was associated with longer length of hospital stay, higher ICU occupancy rate, higher unplanned re-operation rate, and higher in-hospital mortality rate. Postoperative pneumonia was most commonly caused by Gram-negative pathogens, and multidrug resistant bacteria accounted for approximately 16.99% of cases.ConclusionsPostoperative pneumonia is associated with severe clinical outcomes. We identified six independent risk factors that can aid in risk stratification and management of patients at risk of postoperative pneumonia, and the distribution of causative pathogens can also help in the implementation of effective interventions.Clinical Trial Registrationwww.chictr.org.cn, identifier: chiCTR2100045986.