Ice Shelf Extent Research Articles

Recent sedimentology at the grounding zone of the Kamb Ice stream, West Antarctica and implications for ice shelf extent

Sediment accumulating beneath floating ice contains a record of ice dynamics in polar regions where in situ observations are rare. In 2019 a hole was melted through a 590m-thick region of the Ross Ice Shelf ∼5 km seawards of the Kamb Ice Stream (KIS) grounding line (82.7841°S, 155.2626°W) to access the seafloor. Imagery from a remotely operated vehicle (ROV, Icefin) shows ocean current-generated ripples likely formed by tidal flow parallel to the grounding line (GL). Observed current speeds <0.15 m s−1 suggest these bedforms may be relict. Larger, dm-scale, ‘furrows’ parallel to the former direction of KIS flow may relate to past grounding line processes. A 0.49 m-long gravity core collected from the seafloor contains weakly stratified diamicton. The sediment matrix comprises variable mixtures of reworked Tertiary biogenic silica, predominantly diatoms, and arkose material. Sediment εNd values of ∼7 are consistent with derivation from the WAIS, as is the U-Pb age distribution and modelled late Holocene ice flows. Ramped pyrolysis 14C analysis shows all fractions are either >30 ka or 14C dead. By contrast, 210Pb-210 activity of >30 Bq Kg−1 indicates deposition within the last 120 years. The combination of features suggests rapid rainout deposition from melting of a sediment-laden basal debris layer as the GL retreated, followed by some reworking by ocean currents and little modern accumulation. Although Tertiary diatoms are abundant, unambiguously Late Quaternary forms are absent and we speculate on the implications for Ross Ice Shelf stability. [239 wds]

Morphological changes and future projections of the Getz Ice shelf, western Antarctica—A statistical and geospatial approach

The study assessed the extent of the Getz Ice Shelf over a 19-year period using satellite data and divided it into three sectors. The average of rates (AOR), end point rate (EPR), and linear regression (LR) methods were employed to estimate the rate of change, with the LR method showing the strongest correlation. The analysis revealed a shrinkage rate of 42 m/year during February from 2003 to 2019. Over the last 17 years, recession was observed in 60% of transects, while progradation occurred in 40%. The recent decline in Getz ice shelf extent is closely linked to the record low sea ice extent in the Amundsen Sea sector. Predictions for 2024 and 2029 indicated progradation in Sector I and recession in Sectors II and III, as determined by LR analysis. The root mean square error values of transects in Sectors II and III showed good correlation with past positions and satellite-based observations of ice shelves. To validate the predicted ice shelf extent cross-verified with the satellite and predicted data from 2020 to 2022. These findings highlight the complex interactions between climatic forcings, such as wind speed, sea surface temperature (SST), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Positive SAM and increased zonal winds can contribute to warm water upwelling near the Antarctic coast, impacting ice shelf extent. The relationship between ice mass loss and SST provides valuable insights into the dynamic processes of melting and progradation in the Getz Ice Shelf during February. Ocean warming plays a significant role in increased basal melting and changes in sea ice mass. The study emphasizes the significant impact of ocean-atmospheric factors on Antarctic ice shelf dynamics and highlights the necessity for ongoing satellite observations and enhanced comprehension of these processes to accurately predict future changes in Antarctic ice shelves.

The sensitivity of Cook Glacier, East Antarctica, to changes in ice-shelf extent and grounding-line position

AbstractThe Wilkes Subglacial Basin in East Antarctica contains ice equivalent to 3–4 m of global mean sea level rise and is primarily drained by Cook Glacier. Of concern is that recent observations (since the 1970s) show an acceleration in ice speed over the grounding line of both the Eastern and Western portions of Cook Glacier. Here, we use a numerical ice-flow model (Úa) to simulate the instantaneous effects of observed changes at the terminus of Cook Glacier in order to understand the link between these changes and recently observed ice acceleration. Simulations suggest that the acceleration of Cook West was caused by a retreat in calving-front position in the 1970s, potentially enhanced by grounding-line retreat, while acceleration of Cook East was likely caused by ice-shelf thinning and grounding-line retreat in the mid-1990s. Moreover, we show that the instantaneous ice discharge at Cook East would increase by up to 85% if the whole ice shelf is removed and it ungrounds from a pinning point; and that the discharge at Cook West could increase by ~300% if its grounding line retreated by 10 km.

Twenty-first century response of Petermann Glacier, northwest Greenland to ice shelf loss

AbstractIce shelves restrain flow from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Climate-ocean warming could force thinning or collapse of floating ice shelves and subsequently accelerate flow, increase ice discharge and raise global mean sea levels. Petermann Glacier (PG), northwest Greenland, recently lost large sections of its ice shelf, but its response to total ice shelf loss in the future remains uncertain. Here, we use the ice flow modelÚato assess the sensitivity of PG to changes in ice shelf extent, and to estimate the resultant loss of grounded ice and contribution to sea level rise. Our results have shown that under several scenarios of ice shelf thinning and retreat, removal of the shelf will not contribute substantially to global mean sea level (&lt;1 mm). We hypothesize that grounded ice loss was limited by the stabilization of the grounding line at a topographic high ~12 km inland of its current grounding line position. Further inland, the likelihood of a narrow fjord that slopes seawards suggests that PG is likely to remain insensitive to terminus changes in the near future.

Characteristics of ice rises and ice rumples in Dronning Maud Land and Enderby Land, Antarctica

AbstractIce rises and rumples, locally grounded features adjacent to ice shelves, are relatively small yet play significant roles in Antarctic ice dynamics. Their roles generally depend upon their location within the ice shelf and the stage of the ice-sheet retreat or advance. Large, long-stable ice rises can be excellent sites for deep ice coring and paleoclimate study of the Antarctic coast and the Southern Ocean, while small ice rises tend to respond more promptly and can be used to reveal recent changes in regional mass balance. The coasts of Dronning Maud Land (DML) and Enderby Land in East Antarctica are abundant with these features. Here we review existing knowledge, presenting an up-to-date status of research in these regions with focus on ice rises and rumples. We use regional datasets (satellite imagery, surface mass balance and ice thickness) to analyze the extent and surface morphology of ice shelves and characteristic timescales of ice rises. We find that large parts of DML have been changing over the past several millennia. Based on our findings, we highlight ice rises suitable for drilling ice cores for paleoclimate studies as well as ice rises suitable for deciphering ice dynamics and evolution in the region.

Ice shelf rift propagation: stability, three-dimensional effects, and the role of marginal weakening

Abstract. Understanding the processes that govern ice shelf extent is important to improving estimates of future sea-level rise. In present-day Antarctica, ice shelf extent is most commonly determined by the propagation of through-cutting fractures called ice shelf rifts. Here, I present the first three-dimensional analysis of ice shelf rift propagation. I model rifts using the assumptions of linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM). The model predicts that rifts may be stabilized (i.e., stop propagating) when buoyant flexure results in the partial contact of rift walls. This stabilizing tendency may be overcome, however, by processes that act in the ice shelf margins. In particular, loss of marginal strength, modeled as a transition from zero tangential displacement to zero tangential shear stress, is shown to favor rift propagation. Rift propagation may also be triggered if a rift is carried with the ice flow (i.e., advected) out of an embayment and into a floating ice tongue. I show that rift stability is closely related to the transition from uniaxial to biaxial extension known as the compressive arch. Although the partial contact of rift walls is fundamentally a three-dimensional process, I demonstrate that it may be parameterized within more numerically efficient two-dimensional calculations. This study constitutes a step towards a first-principle description of iceberg calving due to ice shelf rift propagation.

Spatio-temporal changes and prediction of Amery ice shelf, east Antarctica: A remote sensing and statistics-based approach

The Amery ice shelf (AIS) dynamics and mass balance play key role to decipher changes in the global climate scenario. The spatio-temporal changes in morphology of the AIS were studied into a number of transects at 5 km uniform intervals using multi-dated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) satellite data (2001–2016) of the austral summer months (January–March). Past ice shelf extents have been reconstructed and future ice shelf extents were estimated for 5- and 10-year time periods. The rate changes of AIS extent were estimated using the linear regression analysis and cross-validated with the coefficient of determination (R2) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) methods. Further, the changes in shelf extent were linked to prevailing factors viz. mass changes, Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index, and ocean-air temperatures. The study reveals that the AIS extent has been prograded at the rate of 994 m/year with an average 14.5 km increase in the areal extents during 2001–2016, as compared to the year 2001, whereas, the maximum advancement in ice shelf extent was recorded during the 2006–2016 period. Based on the linear regression analysis, the predicted ice shelf extents (i.e., the summer 2021 and 2016) show progradation in all the transects. About 52% of transects exhibit ±200 m RMSE values, indicating better agreement between the estimated and satellite-based ice-shelf position. The recent changes (2017–2019) observed in the ice shelf are cross validated with predicted ice self-extent rates. The eastern part of Mackenzie Bay to Ingrid Christensen coast recorded advancement in the ice shelf extents and mass which is the feedback of positive SAM along with a decrease in the temperatures (air temperature and sea surface temperature). The present study demonstrates that the combined use of satellite imagery and statistical techniques can be useful in quantifying and predicting ice shelf morphological variability.

Automatically Extracted Antarctic Coastline Using Remotely-Sensed Data: An Update

The temporal and spatial variability of the Antarctic coastline is a clear indicator of change in extent and mass balance of ice sheets and shelves. In this study, the Canny edge detector was utilized to automatically extract high-resolution information of the Antarctic coastline for 2005, 2010, and 2017, based on optical and microwave satellite data. In order to improve the accuracy of the extracted coastlines, we developed the Canny algorithm by automatically calculating the local low and high thresholds via the intensity histogram of each image to derive thresholds to distinguish ice sheet from water. A visual comparison between extracted coastlines and mosaics from remote sensing images shows good agreement. In addition, comparing manually extracted coastline, based on prior knowledge, the accuracy of planimetric position of automated extraction is better than two pixels of Landsat images (30 m resolution). Our study shows that the percentage of deviation (&lt;100 m) between automatically and manually extracted coastlines in nine areas around the Antarctica is 92.32%, and the mean deviation is 38.15 m. Our results reveal that the length of coastline around Antarctica increased from 35,114 km in 2005 to 35,281 km in 2010, and again to 35,672 km in 2017. Meanwhile, the total area of the Antarctica varied slightly from 1.3618 × 107 km2 (2005) to 1.3537 × 107 km2 (2010) and 1.3657 × 107 km2 (2017). We have found that the decline of the Antarctic area between 2005 and 2010 is related to the breakup of some individual ice shelves, mainly in the Antarctic Peninsula and off East Antarctica. We present a detailed analysis of the temporal and spatial change of coastline and area change for the six ice shelves that exhibited the largest change in the last decade. The largest area change (a loss of 4836 km2) occurred at the Wilkins Ice Shelf between 2005 and 2010.

InitMIP-Antarctica: an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6

Abstract. Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMIP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMIP-Greenland, initMIP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMIP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.

Ocean temperature impact on ice shelf extent in the eastern Antarctic Peninsula

The recent thinning and retreat of Antarctic ice shelves has been attributed to both atmosphere and ocean warming. However, the lack of continuous, multi-year direct observations as well as limitations of climate and ice shelf models prevent a precise assessment on how the ocean forcing affects the fluctuations of a grounded and floating ice cap. Here we show that a +0.3–1.5 °C increase in subsurface ocean temperature (50–400 m) in the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula has driven to major collapse and recession of the regional ice shelf during both the instrumental period and the last 9000 years. Our projections following the representative concentration pathway 8.5 emission scenario from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reveal a +0.3 °C subsurface ocean temperature warming within the coming decades that will undoubtedly accelerate ice shelf melting, including the southernmost sector of the eastern Antarctic Peninsula.

Variations in the extent and elevation of the Larsen A and B ice shelves, Antarctica, derived from multiple datasets

Accurate measurements of retreat and progressive lowering of ice shelves are critical for estimating the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet under projected warming. Ice shelf extent was extracted from declassified aerial photographs and modern satellite images (Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer imagery), and a 48-year time series of the areal extents of the Larsen A ice shelf (LAIS) and the Larsen B ice shelf (LBIS) was compiled. In addition, we characterize the surface elevation changes of the LAIS and LBIS over the last two decades by combining the Ocean Topography Experiment/Poseidon and the Envisat Radar Altimeter-2 using the collinear analysis method. The Larsen ice shelf displayed no significant changes until the late 1980s, whereas the LAIS has retreated rapidly since 1986, and the LBIS has followed a similar pattern since the early 1990s. The LAIS and LBIS have already diminished by ∼14,000 km2 in total since 1968. As the ice shelves retreated, the surface elevations of the LAIS and LBIS exhibited progressive lowering from 1992 to 2010, with the lowering rate of the LAIS significantly greater than that of the LBIS. The remaining ice of the LAIS was lowered at a rate of 0.45 m a − 1 from 1992 to 2001, and the remnant LBIS was lowered at a rate of 0.07 m a − 1 from 1992 to 2010. In response to the continuous retreat of the LAIS and LBIS, their surface elevations are very sensitive to the collapse and retreat of the ice shelves.

Changes in glacier dynamics in the northern Antarctic Peninsula since 1985

Abstract. The climatic conditions along the northern Antarctic Peninsula have shown significant changes within the last 50 years. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of temporally and spatially detailed observations of the changes in ice dynamics along both the east and west coastlines of the northern Antarctic Peninsula. Temporal evolutions of glacier area (1985–2015) and ice surface velocity (1992–2014) are derived from a broad multi-mission remote sensing database for 74 glacier basins on the northern Antarctic Peninsula ( &lt; 65° S along the west coast and north of the Seal Nunataks on the east coast). A recession of the glaciers by 238.81 km2 is found for the period 1985–2015, of which the glaciers affected by ice shelf disintegration showed the largest retreat by 208.59 km2. Glaciers on the east coast north of the former Prince Gustav Ice Shelf extent in 1986 receded by only 21.07 km2 (1985–2015) and decelerated by about 58 % on average (1992–2014). A dramatic acceleration after ice shelf disintegration with a subsequent deceleration is observed at most former ice shelf tributaries on the east coast, combined with a significant frontal retreat. In 2014, the flow speed of the former ice shelf tributaries was 26 % higher than before 1996. Along the west coast the average flow speeds of the glaciers increased by 41 %. However, the glaciers on the western Antarctic Peninsula revealed a strong spatial variability of the changes in ice dynamics. By applying a hierarchical cluster analysis, we show that this is associated with the geometric parameters of the individual glacier basins (hypsometric indexes, maximum surface elevation of the basin, flux gate to catchment size ratio). The heterogeneous spatial pattern of ice dynamic evolutions at the northern Antarctic Peninsula shows that temporally and spatially detailed observations as well as further monitoring are necessary to fully understand glacier change in regions with such strong topographic and climatic variances.

Deglacial sea level history of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea margins

Abstract. Deglacial (12.8–10.7 ka) sea level history on the East Siberian continental shelf and upper continental slope was reconstructed using new geophysical records and sediment cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The focus of this study is two cores from Herald Canyon, piston core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1 (4-PC1) and multicore SWERUS-L2-4-MC1 (4-MC1), and a gravity core from an East Siberian Sea transect, SWERUS-L2-20-GC1 (20-GC1). Cores 4-PC1 and 20-GC were taken at 120 and 115 m of modern water depth, respectively, only a few meters above the global last glacial maximum (LGM; ∼ 24 kiloannum or ka) minimum sea level of ∼ 125–130 meters below sea level (m b.s.l.). Using calibrated radiocarbon ages mainly on molluscs for chronology and the ecology of benthic foraminifera and ostracode species to estimate paleodepths, the data reveal a dominance of river-proximal species during the early part of the Younger Dryas event (YD, Greenland Stadial GS-1) followed by a rise in river-intermediate species in the late Younger Dryas or the early Holocene (Preboreal) period. A rapid relative sea level rise beginning at roughly 11.4 to 10.8 ka ( ∼ 400 cm of core depth) is indicated by a sharp faunal change and unconformity or condensed zone of sedimentation. Regional sea level at this time was about 108 m b.s.l. at the 4-PC1 site and 102 m b.s.l. at 20-GC1. Regional sea level near the end of the YD was up to 42–47 m lower than predicted by geophysical models corrected for glacio-isostatic adjustment. This discrepancy could be explained by delayed isostatic adjustment caused by a greater volume and/or geographical extent of glacial-age land ice and/or ice shelves in the western Arctic Ocean and adjacent Siberian land areas.

An East Siberian ice shelf during the Late Pleistocene glaciations: Numerical reconstructions

Abstract A recent data campaign in the East Siberian Sea has revealed evidence of grounded and floating ice dynamics in regions of up to 1000 m water depth, and which are attributed to glaciations older than the Last Glacial Maximum (21 kyrs BP). The main hypothesis based on this evidence is that a small ice cap developed over Beringia and expanded over the East Siberian continental margin during some of the Late Pleistocene glaciations. Other similar evidence of ice dynamics that have been previously collected on the shallow continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean have been attributed to the penultimate glaciation, i.e. Marine Isotopes Stage 6 (≈140 kyrs BP). We use an ice sheet model, forced by two previously simulated MIS 6 glacial maximum climates, to carry out a series of sensitivity experiments testing the impact of dynamics and mass-balance related parameters on the geometry of the East Siberian ice cap and ice shelf. Results show that the ice cap developing over Beringia connects to the Eurasian ice sheet in all simulations and that its volume ranges between 6 and 14 m SLE, depending on the climate forcing. This ice cap generates an ice shelf of dimensions comparable with or larger than the present-day Ross ice shelf in West Antarctica. Although the ice shelf extent strongly depends on the ice flux through the grounding line, it is particularly sensitive to the choice of the calving and basal melting parameters. Finally, inhibiting a merging of the Beringia ice cap with the Eurasian ice sheet affects the expansion of the ice shelf only in the simulations where the ice cap fluxes are not large enough to compensate for the fluxes coming from the Eurasian ice sheet.

Ice-sheet configuration in the CMIP5/PMIP3 Last Glacial Maximum experiments

Abstract. We describe the creation of a data set describing changes related to the presence of ice sheets, including ice-sheet extent and height, ice-shelf extent, and the distribution and elevation of ice-free land at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which were used in LGM experiments conducted as part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and the third phase of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The CMIP5/PMIP3 data sets were created from reconstructions made by three different groups, which were all obtained using a model-inversion approach but differ in the assumptions used in the modelling and in the type of data used as constraints. The ice-sheet extent in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) does not vary substantially between the three individual data sources. The difference in the topography of the NH ice sheets is also moderate, and smaller than the differences between these reconstructions (and the resultant composite reconstruction) and ice-sheet reconstructions used in previous generations of PMIP. Only two of the individual reconstructions provide information for Antarctica. The discrepancy between these two reconstructions is larger than the difference for the NH ice sheets, although still less than the difference between the composite reconstruction and previous PMIP ice-sheet reconstructions. Although largely confined to the ice-covered regions, differences between the climate response to the individual LGM reconstructions extend over the North Atlantic Ocean and Northern Hemisphere continents, partly through atmospheric stationary waves. Differences between the climate response to the CMIP5/PMIP3 composite and any individual ice-sheet reconstruction are smaller than those between the CMIP5/PMIP3 composite and the ice sheet used in the last phase of PMIP (PMIP2).

Modelling the Antarctic marine cryosphere at the Last Glacial Maximum

AbstractWe estimate the sea-ice extent and basal melt of Antarctic ice shelves at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using a coupled ice-shelf-sea-ice-ocean model. The shape of Antarctic ice shelves, ocean conditions and atmospheric surface conditions at the LGM are different from those in the present day; these are derived from an ice-shelf-ice-sheet model, a sea-ice-ocean model and a climate model for glacial simulations, respectively. The winter sea ice in the LGM is shown to extend up to ∼7° of latitude further equatorward than in the present day. For the LGM summer, the model shows extensive sea-ice cover in the Atlantic sector and little sea ice in the other sectors. These modelled sea-ice features are consistent with those reconstructed from sea-floor sedimentary records. Total basal melt of Antarctic ice shelves in the LGM was ∼2147 Gt a–1, which is much larger than the present-day value. More warm waters originating from Circumpolar Deep Water could be easily transported into ice-shelf cavities during the LGM because the full glacial grounding line extended to shelf break regions and ice shelves overhung continental slopes. This increased transport of warm water masses underneath an ice shelf and into their basal cavities led to the high basal melt of ice shelves in the LGM.

The structural and dynamic responses of Stange Ice Shelf to recent environmental change

AbstractStange Ice Shelf is the most south-westerly ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula, a region where positive trends in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures have been recently documented. In this paper, we use a range of remotely sensed datasets to evaluate the structural and dynamic responses of Stange Ice Shelf to these environmental changes. Ice shelf extent and surface structures were examined at regular intervals from optical and radar satellite imagery between 1973 and 2011. Surface speeds were estimated in 1989, 2004 and 2010 by tracking surface features in successive satellite images. Surface elevation change was estimated using radar altimetry data acquired between 1992 and 2008 by the European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS) -1, -2 and Envisat. The mean number of surface melt days was estimated using the intensity of backscatter from Envisat’s Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar instrument between 2006 and 2012. These results show significant shear fracturing in the southern portion of the ice shelf linked to enhanced flow speed as a consequence of measured thinning. However, we conclude that, despite the observed changes, Stange Ice Shelf is currently stable.

Modeling Antarctic tides in response to ice shelf thinning and retreat

Tides play an important role in ice sheet dynamics by modulating ice stream velocity, fracturing, and moving ice shelves and mixing water beneath them. Any changes in ice shelf extent or thickness will alter the tidal dynamics through modification of water column thickness and coastal topography but these will in turn feed back onto the overall ice shelf stability. Here, we show that removal or reduction in extent and/or thickness of the Ross and Ronne‐Filchner ice shelves would have a significant impact on the tides around Antarctica. The Ronne‐Filchner appears particularly vulnerable, with an increase in M2 amplitude of over 0.5 m beneath much of the ice shelf potentially leading to tidally induced feedbacks on ice shelf/sheet dynamics. These results highlight the importance of understanding tidal feedbacks on ice shelves/streams due to their influence on ice sheet dynamics.

Seabed corrugations beneath an Antarctic ice shelf revealed by autonomous underwater vehicle survey: Origin and implications for the history of Pine Island Glacier

Ice shelves are critical features in the debate about West Antarctic ice sheet change and sea level rise, both because they limit ice discharge and because they are sensitive to change in the surrounding ocean. The Pine Island Glacier ice shelf has been thinning rapidly since at least the early 1990s, which has caused its trunk to accelerate and retreat. Although the ice shelf front has remained stable for the past six decades, past periods of ice shelf collapse have been inferred from relict seabed “corrugations” (corrugated ridges), preserved 340 km from the glacier in Pine Island Trough. Here we present high‐resolution bathymetry gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle operating beneath an Antarctic ice shelf, which provides evidence of long‐term change in Pine Island Glacier. Corrugations and ploughmarks on a sub‐ice shelf ridge that was a former grounding line closely resemble those observed offshore, interpreted previously as the result of iceberg grounding. The same interpretation here would indicate a significantly reduced ice shelf extent within the last 11 kyr, implying Holocene glacier retreat beyond present limits, or a past tidewater glacier regime different from today. The alternative, that corrugations were not formed in open water, would question ice shelf collapse events interpreted from the geological record, revealing detail of another bed‐shaping process occurring at glacier margins. We assess hypotheses for corrugation formation and suggest periodic grounding of ice shelf keels during glacier unpinning as a viable origin. This interpretation requires neither loss of the ice shelf nor glacier retreat and is consistent with a “stable” grounding‐line configuration throughout the Holocene.

Statistical modeling of a former Arctic Ocean ice shelf complex using Antarctic analogies

Geophysical mapping and coring of the central Arctic Ocean seafloor provide evidence for repeated occurrences of ice sheet/ice shelf complexes during previous glacial periods. Several ridges and bathymetric highs shallower than present water depths of ∼1000m show signs of erosion from deep‐drafting (armadas of) icebergs, which originated from thick outlet glaciers and ice shelves. Mapped glacigenic landforms and dates of cored sediments suggest that the largest ice shelf complex was confined to the Amerasian sector of the Arctic Ocean during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6. However, the spatial extent of ice shelves can not be well reconstructed from occasional groundings on bathymetric highs. Therefore, we apply a statistical approach to provide independent support for an extensive MIS 6 ice shelf complex, which previously was inferred only from interpretation of geophysical and geological data. Specifically, we assess whether this ice shelf complex comprises a likely source of the deep‐draft icebergs responsible for the mapped scour marks. The statistical modeling is based on exploiting relations between contemporary Antarctic ice shelves and their local physical environments and the assumption that Arctic Ocean MIS6 ice shelves scale similarly. Analyzing ice thickness data along the calving front of contemporary ice shelves, a peak over threshold method is applied to determine sources of deep‐drafting icebergs in the Arctic Ocean MIS6 ice shelf complex. This approach is novel to modeling Arctic paleoglacial configurations. Predicted extreme calving front drafts match observed deep‐draft iceberg scours if the ice shelf complex is sufficiently large.