Ice Sheet Mass Loss Research Articles

Subglacial Discharge Accelerates Dynamic Retreat of Aurora Subglacial Basin Outlet Glaciers, East Antarctica, Over the 21st Century

AbstractRecent studies have revealed the presence of a complex freshwater system underlying the Aurora Subglacial Basin (ASB), a region of East Antarctica that contains ∼7 m of global sea level potential in ice mainly grounded below sea level. However, the impact that subglacial freshwater has on driving the evolution of the dynamic outlet glaciers that drain this basin has yet to be tested in a coupled ice sheet‐subglacial hydrology numerical modeling framework. Here, we project the evolution of the primary outlet glaciers draining the ASB (Moscow University Ice Shelf, Totten, Vanderford, and Adams Glaciers) in response to an evolving subglacial hydrology system and to ocean forcing through 2100, following low and high CMIP6 emission scenarios. By 2100, ice‐hydrology feedbacks enhance the ASB's 2100 sea level contribution by ∼30% (7.50–9.80 mm) in high emission scenarios and accelerate the retreat of Totten Glacier's main ice stream by 25 years. Ice‐hydrology feedbacks are particularly influential in the retreat of the Vanderford and Adams Glaciers, driving an additional 10 km of retreat in fully coupled simulations relative to uncoupled simulations. Hydrology‐driven ice shelf melt enhancements are the primary cause of domain‐wide mass loss in low emission scenarios, but are secondary to ice sheet frictional feedbacks under high emission scenarios. The results presented here demonstrate that ice‐subglacial hydrology interactions can significantly accelerate retreat of dynamic Antarctic glaciers and that future Antarctic sea level assessments that do not take these interactions into account might be severely underestimating Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss.

Ice-shelf freshwater triggers for the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf melt tipping point in a global ocean–sea-ice model

Abstract. Some ocean modeling studies have identified a potential tipping point from a low to a high basal melt regime beneath the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), Antarctica, with significant implications for subsequent Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. To date, investigation of the climate drivers and impacts of this possible event have been limited because ice-shelf cavities and ice-shelf melting are only now starting to be included in global climate models. Using a global ocean–sea-ice configuration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) that represents both ocean circulations and melting within ice-shelf cavities, we explore freshwater triggers (iceberg melt and ice-shelf basal melt) of a transition to a high-melt regime at FRIS in a low-resolution (30 km in the Southern Ocean) global ocean–sea-ice model. We find that a realistic spatial distribution of iceberg melt fluxes is necessary to prevent the FRIS melt regime change from unrealistically occurring under historical-reanalysis-based atmospheric forcing. Further, improvement of the default parameterization for mesoscale eddy mixing significantly reduces a large regional fresh bias and weak Antarctic Slope Front structure, both of which precondition the model to melt regime change. Using two different stable model configurations, we explore the sensitivity of FRIS melt regime change to regional ice-sheet freshwater fluxes. Through a series of sensitivity experiments prescribing incrementally increasing melt rates from the smaller, neighboring ice shelves in the eastern Weddell Sea, we demonstrate the potential for an ice-shelf melt “domino effect” should the upstream ice shelves experience increased melt rates. The experiments also reveal that modest ice-shelf melt biases in a model, especially at coarse ocean resolution where narrow continental shelf dynamics are not well resolved, can lead to an unrealistic melt regime change at downstream ice shelves. Thus, we find that remote connections between melt fluxes at different ice shelves are sensitive to baseline model conditions. Our results highlight both the potential and the peril of simulating prognostic Antarctic ice-shelf melt rates in a low-resolution global model.

Seawater oxygen isotopes as a tool for monitoring future meltwater from the Antarctic ice-sheet

To reduce uncertainties in future sea level projections, it is necessary to closely monitor the evolution of the Antarctic ice-sheet. Here, we show that seawater oxygen isotopes are an effective tool to monitor ice-sheet freshwater discharge and its contributions to sea level rise. Using the isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model with imposed estimates of future meltwater fluxes, we find that the anthropogenic ice-sheet signal in water isotopes emerges above natural variability decades earlier than salinity-based estimates. The superiority of seawater isotopes over salinity in detecting the ice-sheet melting can be attributed to the higher signal-to-noise ratio of the former and the fact that future sea ice changes only contribute little to seawater isotopes but a lot to salinity. We conclude that in particular in the Ross Sea sector, continuous seawater oxygen isotope measurements could serve as an early warning system for rapid anthropogenic Antarctic ice-sheet mass loss.

Improvements on the discretisation of boundary conditions to the momentum balance for glacial ice

Abstract The flow of glacial ice is typically approximated as a nonNewtonian viscous fluid, with the momentum balance described by (an approximation to) the Stokes equations, and the nonlinear rheology described by a flow law. The most commonly used rheological law for glacial ice, Glen's flow law, yields infinite viscosity in the case of zero deformation, which can be the case at the ice surface. This poses a problem when solving the momentum balance numerically. We show that two commonly-used discretisation schemes for the boundary conditions at the ice surface and base, which yield proper numerical convergence when applied to simpler problems, produce poor numerical convergence and large errors, when used to solve the momentum balance with Glen's flow law. We show that a discretisation scheme based on the concept of ghost nodes, which substitutes the boundary conditions directly into the momentum balance equations, yields second-order numerical convergence and errors that can be up to four orders of magnitude smaller. These results are robust across different momentum balance approximations. We show that the improved boundary conditions are particularly useful for solving the 3-D higher-order Blatter-Pattyn Approximation (BPA). In general, this work underlines the importance of thoroughly verifying the numerical solvers used in ice-sheet models, before applying them to future projections of ice-sheet mass loss.

Abrupt increase in Greenland melt enhanced by atmospheric wave changes

Recent Greenland ice-sheet melt constitutes a considerable contribution to global sea-level rise. Observations indicate an approximate zero mass balance of the ice sheet until the late 1990s, after which a strong increase in melting occurred. This cannot be attributed linearly to gradually-increasing global warming. Instead the abrupt shift has been linked to atmospheric circulation changes, although causality is not fully understood. Here we show that changes of atmospheric waves over Greenland have significantly contributed to the shift into a strong melting state. This is evident after having applied a newly-developed methodology effectively decomposing atmospheric flow patterns into parts associated with waves of different scales such as Rossby waves and smaller perturbations. The onset of a westerly-flow reduction, consistent with anthropogenic Arctic warming, affected transports by atmospheric waves and led to a decrease in precipitation and an increase in surface warming, contributing to ice-sheet mass loss, in particular over the southwestern regions. As such, the Greenland ice-sheet melt is an example of a climate response non-linearly coupled to global warming.

Sentinel-1 detection of ice slabs on the Greenland Ice Sheet

Abstract. Ice slabs are multi-meter-thick layers of refrozen ice that limit meltwater storage in firn, leading to enhanced surface runoff and ice sheet mass loss. To date, ice slabs have primarily been mapped using airborne ice-penetrating radar, which has limited spatial and temporal coverage. This makes it difficult to fully assess the current extent and continuity of ice slabs or to validate predictive models of ice slab evolution that are key to understanding their impact on Greenland's surface mass balance. Here, for the first time, we map the extent of ice slabs and superimposed ice facies across the entire Greenland Ice Sheet at 500 m resolution using dual-polarization Sentinel-1 (S-1) synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) data collected in winter 2016–2017. We do this by selecting empirical thresholds for the cross-polarized backscatter ratio and HV backscattered power that jointly optimize the agreement between airborne ice-penetrating radar data detections of ice slabs and the S-1 estimates of ice slab extent. Our results show that there is a strong correlation between C-band backscatter and the ice content of the upper ∼ 7 m of the firn column that enables ice slab mapping with S-1. Our new mapping shows that ice slabs are nearly continuous around the entire margin of the ice sheet. This includes regions in southwest Greenland where ice slabs have not been previously identified by ice-penetrating radar but where the S-1-inferred ice slab extent shows strong agreement with the extent of visible runoff mapped from optical imagery. The algorithm developed here lays the groundwork for the long-term monitoring of ice slab expansion with current and future C-band satellite systems and highlights the potential added value of future L-band missions for near-surface studies in Greenland.

Local forcing mechanisms challenge parameterizations of ocean thermal forcing for Greenland tidewater glaciers

Abstract. Frontal ablation has caused 32 %–66 % of Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss since 1972, and despite its importance in driving terminus change, ocean thermal forcing remains crudely incorporated into large-scale ice sheet models. In Greenland, local fjord-scale processes modify the magnitude of thermal forcing at the ice–ocean boundary but are too small scale to be resolved in current global climate models. For example, simulations used in the Ice Sheet Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) to predict future ice sheet change rely on the extrapolation of regional ocean water properties into fjords to drive terminus ablation. However, the accuracy of this approach has not previously been tested due to the scarcity of observations in Greenland fjords, as well as the inability of fjord-scale models to realistically incorporate icebergs. By employing the recently developed IceBerg package within the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), we here evaluate the ability of ocean thermal forcing parameterizations to predict thermal forcing at tidewater glacier termini. This is accomplished through sensitivity experiments using a set of idealized Greenland fjords, each forced with equivalent ocean boundary conditions but with varying tidal amplitudes, subglacial discharge, iceberg coverage, and bathymetry. Our results indicate that the bathymetric obstruction of external water is the primary control on near-glacier thermal forcing, followed by iceberg submarine melting. Despite identical ocean boundary conditions, we find that the simulated fjord processes can modify grounding line thermal forcing by as much as 3 °C, the magnitude of which is largely controlled by the relative depth of bathymetric sills to the Polar Water–Atlantic Water thermocline. However, using a common adjustment for fjord bathymetry we can still predict grounding line thermal forcing within 0.2 °C in our simulations. Finally, we introduce new parameterizations that additionally account for iceberg-driven cooling that can accurately predict interior fjord thermal forcing profiles both in iceberg-laden simulations and in observations from Kangiata Sullua (Ilulissat Icefjord).

Timing of Cordilleran-Laurentide ice-sheet separation: Implications for sea-level rise

During the last deglaciation, collapse of the saddle between the North American Cordilleran and Laurentide ice sheets led to rapid ice-sheet mass loss and separation, with meltwater discharge contributing to deglacial sea-level rise. We directly date ice-sheet separation at the end of the saddle collapse using 64 10Be exposure ages along an ∼1200-km transect of the ice-sheet suture zone. Collapse began in the south by 15.4 ± 0.4 ka and ended by 13.8 ± 0.1 ka at ∼56°N. Ice-sheet model simulations consistent with the 10Be ages find that the saddle collapse contributed 6.2–7.2 m to global mean sea-level rise from ∼15.5 ka to ∼14.0 ka, or approximately one third of global mean sea-level rise over this period. We determine 3.1–3.6 m of the saddle collapse meltwater was released during Meltwater Pulse 1A ∼14.6-14.3 ka, constituting 20–40% of this meltwater pulse's volume. Because the separation of the Cordilleran and Laurentide ice sheets occurred over 1–2 millennia, the associated release of meltwater during the saddle collapse supplied a smaller contribution to the magnitude of Meltwater Pulse 1A than has been recently proposed.

Meteoric water and glacial melt in the southeastern Amundsen Sea: a time series from 1994 to 2020

Abstract. Ice sheet mass loss from Antarctica is greatest in the Amundsen Sea sector, where “warm” modified Circumpolar Deep Water moves onto the continental shelf and melts and thins the bases of ice shelves hundreds of meters below the sea surface. We use nearly 1000 paired salinity and oxygen isotope analyses of seawater samples collected on seven expeditions from 1994 to 2020 to produce a time series of glacial meltwater inventory for the southeastern Amundsen Sea continental shelf. Deep water column salinity–δ18O relationships yield freshwater end-member δ18O values from -31.3±1.0‰ to -28.4±1.0‰, consistent with the isotopic composition of local glacial ice. We use a two-component meteoric water end-member approach that accounts for precipitation in the upper water column, and a pure glacial meteoric water end-member is employed for the deep water column. Meteoric water inventories are comprised of nearly pure glacial meltwater in deep shelf waters and of >74 % glacial meltwater in the upper water column. Total meteoric water inventories range from 8.1±0.7 to 9.6±0.8 m and exhibit greater interannual variability than trend over the study period, based on the available data. The relatively long residence time in the southeastern Amundsen Sea allows changes in mean meteoric water inventories to diagnose large changes in local melt rates, and improved understanding of regional circulation could produce well-constrained glacial meltwater fluxes. The two-component meteoric end-member technique improves the accuracy of the sea ice melt and meteoric fractions estimated from seawater δ18O measurements throughout the entire water column and increases the utility for the broader application of these estimates.

Recent warming trends of the Greenland ice sheet documented by historical firn and ice temperature observations and machine learning

Abstract. Surface melt on the Greenland ice sheet has been increasing in intensity and extent over the last decades due to Arctic atmospheric warming. Surface melt depends on the surface energy balance, which includes the atmospheric forcing but also the thermal budget of the snow, firn and ice near the ice sheet surface. The temperature of the ice sheet subsurface has been used as an indicator of the thermal state of the ice sheet's surface. Here, we present a compilation of 4612 measurements of firn and ice temperature at 10 m below the surface (T10 m) across the ice sheet, spanning from 1912 to 2022. The measurements are either instantaneous or monthly averages. We train an artificial neural network model (ANN) on 4597 of these point observations, weighted by their relative representativity, and use it to reconstruct T10 m over the entire Greenland ice sheet for the period 1950–2022 at a monthly timescale. We use 10-year averages and mean annual values of air temperature and snowfall from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset as model input. The ANN indicates a Greenland-wide positive trend of T10 m at 0.2 ∘C per decade during the 1950–2022 period, with a cooling during 1950–1985 (−0.4 ∘C per decade) followed by a warming during 1985–2022 (+0.7 ∘ per decade). Regional climate models HIRHAM5, RACMO2.3p2 and MARv3.12 show mixed results compared to the observational T10 m dataset, with mean differences ranging from −0.4 ∘C (HIRHAM) to 1.2 ∘C (MAR) and root mean squared differences ranging from 2.8 ∘C (HIRHAM) to 4.7 ∘C (MAR). The observation-based ANN also reveals an underestimation of the subsurface warming trends in climate models for the bare-ice and dry-snow areas. The subsurface warming brings the Greenland ice sheet surface closer to the melting point, reducing the amount of energy input required for melting. Our compilation documents the response of the ice sheet subsurface to atmospheric warming and will enable further improvements of models used for ice sheet mass loss assessment and reduce the uncertainty in projections.

Reversibility of Greenland ice sheet mass loss under artificial carbon dioxide removal scenarios

With ongoing anthropogenic CO2 emissions, the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) approaches critical thresholds of inevitable, long-term mass loss. Future technologies might be able to efficiently remove CO2 from the atmosphere and thereby cool down our planet. We explore whether and to what extent a realization of this concept could lead to a regrowth of the GIS once it has partly melted. Using the fully coupled Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-X, emission pulses between 0 and 4000 GtC are released into the atmosphere, and after 1 kyr, 2 kyr, and 5 kyr, the atmospheric CO2 concentration is reduced back to its pre-industrial value. We find that independent of a specific trajectory, once the southern part of the GIS has partly melted with a total mass loss of more than 0.4 m sea level equivalent, regrowth is inhibited. Uncertainties preclude determination of precise thresholds, but model results indicate that cumulative industrial-era emissions approaching 1000–1500 GtC and beyond increasingly risk irreversible mass loss of the GIS. Once this threshold is passed, artificial atmospheric carbon removal would need to be utilised within the next centuries at massive scale. Beyond that, artificial atmospheric carbon removal has limited abilities to avoid long-term mass loss of the GIS. In conclusion, keeping cumulative anthropogenic emissions below 1000–1500 GtC is the only safe way to avoid irreversible mass loss of the GIS.

Ross Gyre variability modulates oceanic heat supply toward the West Antarctic continental shelf

West Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss is a major source of uncertainty in sea level projections. The primary driver of this melting is oceanic heat from Circumpolar Deep Water originating offshore in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Yet, in assessing melt variability, open ocean processes have received considerably less attention than those governing cross-shelf exchange. Here, we use Lagrangian particle release experiments in an ocean model to investigate the pathways by which Circumpolar Deep Water moves toward the continental shelf across the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. We show that Ross Gyre expansion, linked to wind and sea ice variability, increases poleward heat transport along the gyre’s eastern limb and the relative fraction of transport toward the Amundsen Sea. Ross Gyre variability, therefore, influences oceanic heat supply toward the West Antarctic continental slope. Understanding remote controls on basal melt is necessary to predict the ice sheet response to anthropogenic forcing.

Higher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution

Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass loss is predominantly driven by increased solid ice discharge, but its variability is governed by surface processes. Snowfall fluctuations control the surface mass balance (SMB) of the grounded AIS, while meltwater ponding can trigger ice shelf collapse potentially accelerating discharge. Surface processes are essential to quantify AIS mass change, but remain poorly represented in climate models typically running at 25-100 km resolution. Here we present SMB and surface melt products statistically downscaled to 2 km resolution for the contemporary climate (1979-2021) and low, moderate and high-end warming scenarios until 2100. We show that statistical downscaling modestly enhances contemporary SMB (3%), which is sufficient to reconcile modelled and satellite mass change. Furthermore, melt strongly increases (46%), notably near the grounding line, in better agreement with in-situ and satellite records. The melt increase persists by 2100 in all warming scenarios, revealing higher surface melt rates than previously estimated.

Emulating Present and Future Simulations of Melt Rates at the Base of Antarctic Ice Shelves With Neural Networks

AbstractMelt rates at the base of Antarctic ice shelves are needed to drive projections of the Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. Current basal melt parameterizations struggle to link open ocean properties to ice‐shelf basal melt rates for the range of current sub‐shelf cavity geometries around Antarctica. We present a proof of concept exploring the potential of simple deep learning techniques to parameterize basal melt. We train a simple feedforward neural network, or multilayer perceptron, acting on each grid cell separately, to emulate the behavior of circum‐Antarctic cavity‐resolving ocean simulations. We find that this kind of emulator produces reasonable basal melt rates for our training ensemble, at least as close as or closer to the reference than traditional parameterizations. On an independent ensemble of simulations that was produced with the same ocean model but with different model parameters, cavity geometries and forcing, the neural network yields similar results to traditional parameterizations on present conditions. In much warmer conditions, both traditional parameterizations and neural network struggle, but the neural network tends to produce basal melt rates closer to the reference than a majority of traditional parameterizations. While this shows that such a neural network is at least as suitable for century‐scale Antarctic ice‐sheet projections as traditional parameterizations, it also highlights that tuning any parameterization on present‐like conditions can introduce biases and should be used with care. Nevertheless, this proof of concept is promising and provides a basis for further development of a deep learning basal melt parameterization.

An Amundsen Sea source of decadal temperature changes on the Antarctic continental shelf

AbstractMass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is dominated by basal melting–induced warm ocean water. Ice-sheet mass loss and thinning of buttressing ice shelves occur primarily in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas. Here, we show that in a global ocean simulation using the 0.25° Nucleus for European Modeling of Ocean (NEMO) model driven by the JRA55 reanalysis from 1982 to 2017, the Amundsen sector of the Antarctic continental shelf acts as a gateway, regulating the on-shelf access of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) from the deep ocean and its westward transfer to other sectors up to ca. 90° E, particularly the Ross Sea. As a result, anomalies in Antarctic-shelf-averaged temperature mainly originate in the Amundsen sector. These changes are primarily governed by shifts in the Amundsen Sea Low associated with tropical climate variability, modulating the on-shelf transport of CDW via wind-driven perturbations to ocean currents. The ensuing temperature anomalies progress westward from the Amundsen Sea via three distinct routes: a slow, convoluted westward pathway on the shelf via the Antarctic Coastal Current; a faster westward pathway along the shelf break via the Antarctic Slope Current and then onto the shelf along topographic troughs; and a third, eastward route toward the Bellingshausen sector, whereby temperature anomalies are transported into a region of local wind-generated changes farther north. These results emphasize the importance of the Amundsen sector for climate variability over the Antarctic shelves.

Reciprocity and sensitivity kernels for sea level fingerprints

SUMMARYReciprocity theorems are established for the elastic sea level fingerprint problem including rotational feedbacks. In their simplest form, these results show that the sea level change at a location x due to melting a unit point mass of ice at x′ is equal to the sea level change at x′ due to melting a unit point mass of ice at x. This identity holds irrespective of the shoreline geometry or of lateral variations in elastic Earth structure. Using the reciprocity theorems, sensitivity kernels for sea level and related observables with respect to the ice load can be readily derived. It is notable that calculation of the sensitivity kernels is possible using standard fingerprint codes, though for some types of observable a slight generalization to the fingerprint problem must be considered. These results are of use within coastal hazard assessment and have a range of applications within studies of modern-day sea level change. To illustrate the latter point, we use sensitivity kernels to investigate two widely used methods for estimating, respectively, ice sheet mass loss from satellite gravity, and rates of global mean sea level rise from satellite altimetry. Though our analysis is idealized in some respects, we identify systematic errors of order 5 per cent due to the use of simplified sea level physics. Crucially, calculation of the relevant sensitivity kernels provides not only a means for understanding sources of bias in existing methods, but will aid in the design of new and improved data-assimilation techniques.

A framework for time-dependent ice sheet uncertainty quantification, applied to three West Antarctic ice streams

Abstract. Ice sheet models are the main tool to generate forecasts of ice sheet mass loss, a significant contributor to sea level rise; thus, knowing the likelihood of such projections is of critical societal importance. However, to capture the complete range of possible projections of mass loss, ice sheet models need efficient methods to quantify the forecast uncertainty. Uncertainties originate from the model structure, from the climate and ocean forcing used to run the model, and from model calibration. Here we quantify the latter, applying an error propagation framework to a realistic setting in West Antarctica. As in many other ice sheet modelling studies we use a control method to calibrate grid-scale flow parameters (parameters describing the basal drag and ice stiffness) with remotely sensed observations. Yet our framework augments the control method with a Hessian-based Bayesian approach that estimates the posterior covariance of the inverted parameters. This enables us to quantify the impact of the calibration uncertainty on forecasts of sea level rise contribution or volume above flotation (VAF) due to the choice of different regularization strengths (prior strengths), sliding laws, and velocity inputs. We find that by choosing different satellite ice velocity products our model leads to different estimates of VAF after 40 years. We use this difference in model output to quantify the variance that projections of VAF are expected to have after 40 years and identify prior strengths that can reproduce that variability. We demonstrate that if we use prior strengths suggested by L-curve analysis, as is typically done in ice sheet calibration studies, our uncertainty quantification is not able to reproduce that same variability. The regularization suggested by the L curves is too strong, and thus propagating the observational error through to VAF uncertainties under this choice of prior leads to errors that are smaller than those suggested by our two-member “sample” of observed velocity fields.

Borehole fibre-optic seismology inside the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream

SUMMARYIce streams are major contributors to ice sheet mass loss and sea level rise. Effects of their dynamic behaviour are imprinted into seismic properties, such as wave speeds and anisotropy. Here, we present results from a distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) experiment in a deep ice-core borehole in the onset region of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream, with focus on phenomenological and methodological aspects. A series of active seismic surface sources produced clear recordings of the P and S wavefield, including internal reflections, along a 1500 m long fibre-optic cable that was placed into the borehole. The combination of nonlinear traveltime tomography with a firn model constrained by multimode surface wave data, allows us to invert for P and S wave speeds with depth-dependent uncertainties on the order of only 10 m s−1, and vertical resolution of 20–70 m. The wave speed model in conjunction with the regularly spaced DAS data enable a straightforward separation of internal upward reflections followed by a reverse-time migration that provides a detailed reflectivity image of the ice. While the differences between P and S wave speeds hint at anisotropy related to crystal orientation fabric, the reflectivity image seems to carry a pronounced climatic imprint caused by rapid variations in grain size. Further improvements in resolution do not seem to be limited by the DAS channel spacing. Instead, the maximum frequency of body waves below ∼200 Hz, low signal-to-noise ratio caused by poor coupling, and systematic errors produced by the ray approximation, appear to be the leading-order issues. Among these, only the latter has a simple existing solution in the form of full-waveform inversion. Improving signal bandwidth and quality, however, will likely require a significantly larger effort in terms of both sensing equipment and logistics.

Missing sea level rise in southeastern Greenland during and since the Little Ice Age

Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing mass at an accelerating rate over the past 2 decades. Understanding ice mass and glacier changes during the preceding several hundred years prior to geodetic measurements is more difficult because evidence of past ice extent in many places was later overridden. Salt marshes provide the only continuous records of relative sea level (RSL) from close to the Greenland Ice Sheet that span the period of time during and since the Little Ice Age (LIA) and can be used to reconstruct ice mass gain and loss over recent centuries. Salt marsh sediments collected at the mouth of Dronning Marie Dal, close to the Greenland Ice Sheet margin in southeastern Greenland, record RSL changes over the past ca. 300 years through changing sediment and diatom stratigraphy. These RSL changes record a combination of processes that are dominated by local and regional changes in Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance during this critical period that spans the maximum of the LIA and 20th-century warming. In the early part of the record (1725–1762 CE) the rate of RSL rise is higher than reconstructed from the closest isolation basin at Timmiarmiut, but between 1762 and 1880 CE the RSL rate is within the error range of the rate of RSL change recorded in the isolation basin. RSL begins to slowly fall around 1880 CE, with a total amount of RSL fall of 0.09±0.1 m in the last 140 years. Modelled RSL, which takes into account contributions from post-LIA Greenland Ice Sheet glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA), ongoing deglacial GIA, the global non-ice sheet glacial melt fingerprint, contributions from thermosteric effects, the Antarctic mass loss sea level fingerprint and terrestrial water storage, overpredicts the amount of RSL fall since the end of the LIA by at least 0.5 m. The GIA signal caused by post-LIA Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss is by far the largest contributor to this modelled RSL, and error in its calculation has a large impact on RSL predictions at Dronning Marie Dal. We cannot reconcile the modelled RSL and the salt marsh observations, even when moving the termination of the LIA to 1700 CE and reducing the post-LIA Greenland mass loss signal by 30 %, and a “budget residual” of +∼3 mm yr−1 since the end of the LIA remains unexplained. This new RSL record backs up other studies that suggest that there are significant regional differences in the timing and magnitude of the response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the climate shift from the LIA into the 20th century.

Improving modelled albedo over the Greenland ice sheet through parameter optimisation and MODIS snow albedo retrievals

Abstract. Greenland ice sheet mass loss continues to accelerate as global temperatures increase. The surface albedo of the ice sheet determines the amount of absorbed solar energy, which is a key factor in driving surface snow and ice melting. Satellite-retrieved snow albedo allows us to compare and optimise modelled albedo over the entirety of the ice sheet. We optimise the parameters of the albedo scheme in the ORCHIDEE (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems) land surface model for 3 random years taken over the 2000–2017 period and validate over the remaining years. In particular, we want to improve the albedo at the edges of the ice sheet, since they correspond to ablation areas and show the greatest variations in runoff and surface mass balance. By giving a larger weight to points at the ice sheet's edge, we improve the model–data fit by reducing the root-mean-square deviation by over 25 % for the whole ice sheet for the summer months. This improvement is consistent for all years, even those not used in the calibration step. We also show the optimisation successfully improves the model–data fit at 87.5 % of in situ sites from the PROMICE (Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet) network. We conclude by showing which additional model outputs are impacted by changes to the albedo parameters, encouraging future work using multiple data streams when optimising these parameters.