Ice Load History Research Articles

Regional sea-level highstand triggered Holocene ice sheet thinning across coastal Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet stores a vast amount of freshwater, which makes it the single largest potential contributor to future sea-level rise. However, the lack of well-constrained geological records of past ice sheet changes impedes model validation, hampers mass balance estimates, and inhibits examination of ice loss mechanisms. Here we identify rapid ice-sheet thinning in coastal Dronning Maud Land from Early to Middle Holocene (9000–5000 years ago) using a deglacial chronology based on in situ cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dates from central Dronning Maud Land, in concert with numerical simulations of regional and continental ice-sheet evolution. Regional sea-level changes reproduced from our refined ice-load history show a highstand at 9000–8000 years ago. We propose that sea-level rise and a concomitant influx of warmer Circumpolar Deep Water triggered ice shelf breakup via the marine ice sheet instability mechanism, which led to rapid thinning of upstream coastal ice sheet sectors.

Can GPS and GRACE data be used to separate past and present-day surface loading in a data-driven approach?

SUMMARY Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and the hydrological cycle are both associated with mass changes and vertical land motion (VLM), which are observed by GRACE and GPS, respectively. Hydrology-related VLM results from the instantaneous response of the elastic solid Earth to surface loading by freshwater, whereas GIA-related VLM reveals the long-term response of the viscoelastic Earth mantle to past ice loading history. Thus, observations of mass changes and VLM are interrelated, making GIA and hydrology difficult to quantify and study independently. In this work, we investigate the feasibility of separating these processes based on GRACE and GPS observations, in a fully data-driven and physically consistent approach. We take advantage of the differences in the spatio-temporal characteristics of the GIA and hydrology fields to estimate the respective contributions of each component using a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework. A closed-loop synthetic test confirms that our method successfully solves this source separation problem. However, there are significant challenges when applying the same approach with actual observations and the answer to the main question of this study is more nuanced. In particular, in regions where GPS station coverage is sparse, the lack of informative data becomes a limiting factor.

Separating GIA signal from surface mass change using GPS and GRACE data

SUMMARY The visco-elastic response of the solid Earth to the past glacial cycles and the present-day surface mass change (PDSMC) are detected by the geodetic observation systems such as global navigation satellite system and satellite gravimetry. Majority of the contemporary PDSMC is driven by climate change and in order to better understand them using the aforementioned geodetic observations, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) signal should be accounted first. The default approach is to use forward GIA models that use uncertain ice-load history and approximate Earth rheology to predict GIA, yielding large uncertainties. The proliferation of contemporary, global, geodetic observations and their coverage have therefore enabled estimation of data-driven GIA solutions. A novel framework is presented that uses geophysical relations between the vertical land motion (VLM) and geopotential anomaly due to GIA and PDSMC to express GPS VLM trends and GRACE geopotential trends as a function of either GIA or PDSMC, which can be easily solved using least-squares regression. The GIA estimates are data-driven and differ significantly from forward models over Alaska and Greenland.

Capturing the interactions between ice sheets, sea level and the solid Earth on a range of timescales: a new “time window” algorithm

Abstract. Retreat and advance of ice sheets perturb the gravitational field, solid surface and rotation of the Earth, leading to spatially variable sea-level changes over a range of timescales O(100−6 years), which in turn feed back onto ice-sheet dynamics. Coupled ice-sheet–sea-level models have been developed to capture the interactive processes between ice sheets, sea level and the solid Earth, but it is computationally challenging to capture short-term interactions O(100−2 years) precisely within longer O(103−6 years) simulations. The standard forward sea-level modelling algorithm assigns a uniform temporal resolution in the sea-level model, causing a quadratic increase in total CPU time with the total number of input ice history steps, which increases with either the length or temporal resolution of the simulation. In this study, we introduce a new “time window” algorithm for 1D pseudo-spectral sea-level models based on the normal mode method that enables users to define the temporal resolution at which the ice loading history is captured during different time intervals before the current simulation time. Utilizing the time window, we assign a fine temporal resolution O(100−2 years) for the period of ongoing and recent history of surface ice and ocean loading changes and a coarser temporal resolution O(103−6 years) for earlier periods in the simulation. This reduces the total CPU time and memory required per model time step while maintaining the precision of the model results. We explore the sensitivity of sea-level model results to the model temporal resolution and show how this sensitivity feeds back onto ice-sheet dynamics in coupled modelling. We apply the new algorithm to simulate sea-level changes in response to global ice-sheet evolution over two glacial cycles and the rapid collapse of marine sectors of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the coming centuries and provide appropriate time window profiles for each application. The time window algorithm reduces the total CPU time by ∼ 50 % in each of these examples and changes the trend of the total CPU time increase from quadratic to linear. This improvement would increase with longer simulations than those considered here. Our algorithm also allows for coupling time intervals of annual temporal scale for coupled ice-sheet–sea-level modelling of regions such as West Antarctica that are characterized by rapid solid Earth response to ice changes due to the thin lithosphere and low mantle viscosities.

Ice loads and ice-induced vibrations of offshore wind turbine based on coupled DEM-FEM simulations

The drifting sea ice is a significant factor affecting the structural design and operation of offshore wind turbine (OWT) in cold regions. The extreme load and ice-induced vibration produced by sea ice can cause significant harm to the structures of OWT. In this study, a “strong” coupled model of the discrete element method (DEM) and finite element method (FEM) was adopted to investigate the impact of ice load and ice-induced vibration on the monopile foundation of OWT during the crushing process of sea ice. The sea ice and OWT were simulated through spherical particles in a parallel bonding mode and the Euler–Bernoulli beam element, respectively, and a “coupling” bridge was built to handle and transfer the DEM and FEM calculation parameters to achieve the “strong” coupling between the two methods. Subsequently, to examine the validity of the coupled DEM-FEM method in calculating the ice load on OWT, the ice load history and probability distribution obtained from a test in a 3-MW OWT model at Tianjin University as well as numerical simulation were compared and analyzed. In several simulations of the interaction between a 3.3-MW OWT and sea ice under various drifting speeds and thickness, some numerical results, such as ice load form, ice-induced vibration response of various parts, and mode of sea ice failure, were analyzed in several simulations. The simulation results obtained in this study primarily describe the phenomenon of the overall structural response of OWT to first-order vibration frequency and the conditions required for their generation. Therefore, the method and conclusions of this study provide a useful reference for the anti-icing design and anti-icing performance evaluation of monopile OWT in icy regions.

Glacial isostatic adjustment of the Pacific Coast of North America: the influence of lateral Earth structure

SUMMARYThe Pacific Coast of Central North America is a geodynamically complex region which has been subject to various geophysical processes operating on different timescales. Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), the ongoing deformational response of the solid Earth to past deglaciation, is an important geodynamic process in this region. In this study, we apply earth models with 3-D structure to determine if the inclusion of lateral structure can explain the poor performance of 1-D models in this region. Three different approaches are used to construct 3-D models of the Earth structure. For the first approach, we adopt an optimal 1-D viscosity structure from previous work and add lateral variations based on four global seismic shear wave velocity anomalies and two global lithosphere thickness models. The results based on these models indicate that the addition of lateral structure significantly impacts modelled RSL changes, but the data-model fits are not improved. The global seismic models are limited in spatial resolution and so two other approaches were considered to produce higher resolution models of 3-D structure: inserting a regional seismic model into two of the global seismic models and, explicitly incorporating regional structure of the Cascadia subduction zone and vicinity, that is the subducting slab, the overlying mantle wedge and the plate boundary interface. The results associated with these higher resolution models do not reveal any clear improvement in satisfying the RSL observations, suggesting that our estimates of lateral structure are inaccurate and/or the data-model misfits are primarily due to limitations in the adopted ice-loading history. The different realizations of 3-D Earth structure gives useful insight to uncertainty associated with this aspect of the GIA model. Our results indicate that improving constraints on the deglacial history of the southwest sector of the Cordilleran ice sheet is an important step towards developing more accurate of GIA models for this region.

Implications of glacial isostatic adjustment on petroleum reservoirs in the Grand banks of Newfoundland

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), or postglacial rebound refers to the crustal response to glacial loading and unloading processes. In this investigation, we run numerical simulations using different rheological parameters and ice loading histories to obtain models of the glacial isostatic response for the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. The objective is to assess in general the potential impact of GIA on hydrocarbon reservoirs and trapping structures in terms of tilting, deformation, fault activity or geochemical implications on the trapped fluids. Comparisons may be drawn to related studies, including analogous impacts on reservoirs in the Barents Sea, as well as validation of GIA model predictions of vertical crustal motion using GNSS stations, levelling networks and relative sea level (RSL) observations at numerous sites across eastern Canada. By running a series of GIA models, a range of vertical motion rates are output through time to determine displacement amounts, and calculations are performed on these outputs to disseminate other valuable data attributes such as the displacement gradient and differences in time and space. In general, the vertical motion rate is seen to change drastically over time for certain points, as the lag in response of regions near the ice periphery leads to a distinct pattern of uplift and subsidence. The Grand Banks generally experienced between 57 m of subsidence to 34 m of uplift since the last glacial maximum, depending on the specific location and the GIA model parameters. At the reservoir scale, model results along a 10 km baseline show up to −1.0–1.5 m of differential vertical displacement, which could have led to reservoir tilting or even hydrocarbon migration. As a result of this study, it is clear that there are implications of GIA on hydrocarbon reservoirs since the Last Glacial Maximum, and these effects are ongoing.

Monitoring changes of the Antarctic Ice sheet by GRACE, ICESat and GNSS

Abstract In this study, we estimate the ice mass changes, the ice elevation changes and the vertical displacements in Antarctica based on analysis of multi-geodetic datasets that involve the satellite gravimetry (GRACE), the satellite altimetry (ICESat) and the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). According to our estimates, the total mass change of the Antarctic ice sheet from GRACE data is −162.91 Gt/yr over the investigated period between April 2002 and June 2017. This value was obtained after applying the GIA correction of −98.12 Gt/yr derived from the ICE-5G model of the glacial iso-static adjustment. A more detailed analysis of mass balance changes for three individual drainage regions in Antarctica reveal that the mass loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet was at a rate of −143.11 Gt/yr. The mass loss of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet was at a rate of −24.31 Gt/yr. The mass of the East Antarctic ice sheet increased at a rate of 5.29 Gt/yr during the investigated period. When integrated over the entire Antarctic ice sheet, average rates of ice elevation changes over the period from March 2003 to October 2009 derived from ICESat data represent the loss of total ice volume of −155.6 km3.The most prominent features in ice volume changes in Antarctica are characterized by a strong dynamic thinning and ice mass loss in the Amundsen Sea Embayment that is part of the West Antarctic ice sheet. In contrast, coastal regions between Dronning Maud Land and Enderby Land exhibit a minor ice increase, while a minor ice mass loss is observed in Wilkes Land. The vertical load displacement rates estimated from GRACE and GPS data relatively closely agree with the GIA model derived based on the ice-load history and the viscosity profile. For most sites, the GRACE signal appears to be in phase and has the same amplitude as that obtained from the GPS vertical motions while other sites exhibit some substantial differences possibly attributed to thermo-elastic deformations associated with surface temperature.

An investigation into the sensitivity of postglacial decay times to uncertainty in the adopted ice history

Abstract At the centers of previously glaciated regions such as Hudson Bay in Canada and the Gulf of Bothnia in Fennoscandia, it has been observed that the sea level history follows an exponential form and that the associated decay time is relatively insensitive to uncertainty in the ice loading history. We revisit the issue of decay time sensitivity by computing relative sea level histories for Richmond Gulf and James Bay in Hudson Bay and Ångerman River in Sweden for a suite of reconstructions of the North American and Fennoscandian Ice Sheets and Earth viscosity profiles. We find that while some Earth viscosity models do indeed show insensitivity in computed decay times to the ice history, this is not true in all cases. Moreover, we find that the location of the study site relative to the geometry of the ice sheet is an important factor in determining ice sensitivity, and based on our set of ice sheet reconstructions, conclude that the location of James Bay is not well-suited to a decay time analysis. We describe novel corrections to the RSL data to remove the effects associated with the spatial distribution of sea level indicators as well as for other signals unrelated to regional ice loading (ocean loading, rotation and global mean sea-level changes) and demonstrate that they can significantly affect the inference of viscosity structure. We performed a forward modelling analysis based on a commonly adopted 2-layer, sub-lithosphere viscosity structure to determine how the solution space of viscosity models changes with the input ice history at the three study sites. While the solution spaces depend on ice history, for both Richmond Gulf and Ångerman River there are regions of parameter space where solutions are common across all or most ice histories, indicating low ice load sensitivity for these mantle viscosity parameters. For example, in Richmond Gulf, upper mantle viscosity values of (0.3–0.5)x1021 Pa s and lower mantle viscosity values of (5–50)x1021 Pa s tend to satisfy the data constraint consistently for most ice histories considered in this study. Similarly, the Ångerman River solution spaces contain a solution with an upper mantle viscosity of 0.3 × 1021 Pa s and lower mantle viscosity values of (5–50)x1021 Pa s common to 9 of the 10 ice histories considered there. However, the dependence of the viscosity solution space on ice history suggests that joint estimation of ice and Earth parameters is the optimal approach.

A new global GPS data set for testing and improving modelled GIA uplift rates

Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is the response of the solid Earth to past ice loading, primarily, since the Last Glacial Maximum, about 20 K yr BP. Modelling GIA is challenging because of large uncertainties in ice loading history and also the viscosity of the upper and lower mantle. GPS data contain the signature of GIA in their uplift rates but these also contain other sources of vertical land motion (VLM) such as tectonics, human and natural influences on water storage that can mask the underlying GIA signal. In this study, we use about 4000 GPS vertical velocities as observational estimates of global GIA uplift rates, after correcting for major elastic deformation effects. A novel fully automatic strategy is developed to postprocess the GPS time-series and to correct for non-GIA artefacts. Before estimating vertical velocities and uncertainties, we detect outliers and jumps and correct for atmospheric mass loading displacements. We correct the resulting velocities for the elastic response of the solid Earth to global changes in ice sheets, glaciers and ocean loading, as well as for changes in the Earth’s rotational pole relative to the 20th century average. We then apply a spatial median filter to remove sites where local effects are dominant to leave approximately 4000 GPS sites. The resulting novel global GPS data set shows a clean GIA signal at all post-processed stations and is therefore suitable to investigate the behavior of global GIA forward models. The results are transformed from a frame with its origin in the centre of mass of the total Earth’s system (CM) into a frame with its origin in the centre of mass of the solid Earth (CE) before comparison with 13 global GIA forward model solutions, with best fits with Pur-6- VM5 and ICE-6G predictions. The largest discrepancies for all models were identified for Antarctica and Greenland, which may be due to either uncertain mantle rheology, ice loading history/magnitude and/or GPS errors.

A method for real-time estimation of full-scale global ice loads on floating structures

This paper proposes an algorithm that uses conventional measurements found on-board ships coupled with additional Inertial Measurement Units to estimate the motions and global loads acting on them. The work is motivated by the scarce availability of full-scale load data for sea-ice operations and by the invasive instrumentation of strain gauges used to obtain global loads of all degrees of freedom. Full-scale data are key to a number of design, operational, and research aspects related to sea-ice operations. The proposed algorithm is based on four Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs) that together with position and heading measurements are used to make estimates of dynamic linear and rotational acceleration (acceleration resulting in motion). We show how to use models updated with propulsion and wind measurements to estimate propulsion, hydrodynamic, wind, and ice loads through a setup catering to real-time implementation. A case study with the Swedish icebreaker Oden is presented and discussed. The algorithm effectively yields reasonable ice load history estimations and presents great potential in its further application to real-time global ice load estimations.

The impact of water loading on postglacial decay times in Hudson Bay

Ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) due to surface loading (ice and water) variations during the last glacial cycle has been contributing to sea-level changes globally throughout the Holocene, especially in regions like Canada that were heavily glaciated during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The spatial and temporal distribution of GIA, as manifested in relative sea-level (RSL) change, are sensitive to the ice history and the rheological structure of the solid Earth, both of which are uncertain. It has been shown that RSL curves near the center of previously glaciated regions with no ongoing surface loading follow an exponential-like form, with the postglacial decay times associated with that form having a weak sensitivity to the details of the ice loading history. Postglacial decay time estimates thus provide a powerful datum for constraining the Earth's viscous structure and improving GIA predictions. We explore spatial patterns of postglacial decay time predictions in Hudson Bay by decomposing numerically modeled RSL changes into contributions from water and ice loading effects, and computing their relative impact on the decay times. We demonstrate that ice loading can contribute a strong geographic trend on the decay time estimates if the time window used to compute decay times includes periods that are temporally close to (i.e. contemporaneous with, or soon after) periods of active loading. This variability can be avoided by choosing a suitable starting point for the decay time window. However, more surprisingly, we show that across any adopted time window, water loading effects associated with inundation into, and postglacial flux out of, Hudson Bay and James Bay will impart significant geographic variability onto decay time estimates. We emphasize this issue by considering both maps of predicted decay times across the region and site-specific estimates, and we conclude that variability in observed decay times (whether based on existing or future data sets) may reflect this water loading signal.

Reply to Comment by W. R. Peltier, D. F. Argus, and R. Drummond on “An Assessment of the ICE6G_C (VM5a) Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Model”

AbstractThe empirical approximation of Purcell et al. (2011, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048624) has been validated by Peltier et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JB013844). In their Comment they introduced new results derived from the same ice/rheology models of ICE6G_C (VM5a) but using a different model for Antarctic bathymetry. This has greatly reduced the differences in predicted Antarctic uplift rates relative to those of Purcell et al. (2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012742). In fact, with a ∼50% reduction in uplift rate in the Weddell Sea, the results of Peltier et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JB013844) now agree more closely with the predictions of Purcell et al. (2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012742) than with the original ICE6G_C values. Peltier et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JB013844) state that the high power in their high‐frequency spherical harmonic coefficients remains in their new calculations. They also claim that Purcell et al. (2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012742) used an inaccurate loading history in deriving their velocity field. In fact, the ice load history was unchanged; to remove any ambiguity, the ice and water load histories used in the CALSEA calculations are provided in the supporting information.

Testing models of ice cap extent, South Georgia, sub-Antarctic

The extent of Last Glacial Maximum ice in South Georgia is contested, with two alternative hypotheses: an extensive (maximum) model of ice reaching the edge of the continental shelf, or a restricted (minimum) model with ice constrained within the inner fjords. We present a new relative sea-level dataset for South Georgia, summarising published and new geomorphological evidence for the marine limit and elevations of former sea levels on the island. Using a glacial isostatic adjustment model (ALMA) specifically suited to regional modelling and working at high spatial resolutions, combined with a series of simulated ice-load histories, we use the relative sea-level data to test between the restricted and extensive ice extent scenarios. The model results suggest that there was most likely an extensive Last Glacial Maximum glaciation of South Georgia, implying that the island was covered by thick (>1000 m) ice, probably to the edge of the continental shelf, with deglaciation occurring relatively early (ca. 15 ka BP, though independent data suggest this may have been as early as 18 ka). The presence of an extensive ice cap extending to the shelf edge would imply that if there were any biological refugia around South Georgia, they must have been relatively localised and restricted to the outermost shelf.

Glacial isostatic adjustment in response to changing Late Holocene behaviour of ice streams on the Siple Coast, West Antarctica

The Siple Coast region of Antarctica contains a number of fast-flowing ice streams, which control the dynamics and mass balance of the region. These ice streams are known to undergo stagnation and reactivation cycles, which lead to ice thickness changes that may be sufficient to excite a viscous solid Earth response (glacial isostatic adjustment; GIA). This study aims to quantify Siple Coast ice thickness changes during the last 2000 yr in order to determine the degree to which they might contribute to GIA and associated present-day bedrock uplift rates. This is important because accurate modelling of GIA is necessary to determine the rate of present-day ice-mass change from satellite gravimetry. Recently-published reconstructions of ice-stream variability were used to create a suite of kinematic models for the stagnation-related thickening of Kamb Ice Stream since ∼1850 AD, and a GIA model was used to predict present-day deformation rates in response to this thickening. A number of longer-term loading scenarios, which include the stagnation and reactivation of ice streams across the Siple Coast over the past 2000 yr, were also constructed, and used to investigate the longer term GIA signal in the region. Uplift rates for each of the ice loading histories, based on a range of earth models, were compared with regional GPS-observed uplift rates and an empirical GIA estimate. We estimate Kamb Ice Stream to have thickened by 70–130 m since stagnation ∼165 years ago. Modelled present-day vertical motion in response to this load increase peaks at −17 mm yr–1 (i.e. 17 mm yr–1 subsidence) for the weakest earth models tested here. Comparison of the solid Earth response to ice load changes throughout the last glacial cycle, including ice stream stagnation and reactivation across the Siple Coast during the last 2000 yr, with an empirical GIA estimate suggests that the upper mantle viscosity of the region is greater than 1 × 1020 Pa s. When upper mantle viscosity values of 1 × 1020 Pa s or smaller are combined with our suite of ice-load scenarios we predict uplift rates across Siple Coast that are at least 4 mm yr–1 smaller than those predicted by the empirical GIA estimate. GPS data are unable to further constrain model parameters due to the distance of the GPS sites from the study area. Our results demonstrate that Late Holocene ice load changes related to the stagnation and reactivation of ice streams on the Siple Coast may play a dominant role in defining the present-day uplift signal. However, both the detailed Earth structure and deglacial history of the region need to be better constrained in order to reduce uncertainties associated with the GIA signal of this region.

Effect of GIA models with 3D composite mantle viscosity on GRACE mass balance estimates for Antarctica

Seismic data indicate that there are large viscosity variations in the mantle beneath Antarctica. Consideration of such variations would affect predictions of models of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), which are used to correct satellite measurements of ice mass change. However, most GIA models used for that purpose have assumed the mantle to be uniformly stratified in terms of viscosity. The goal of this study is to estimate the effect of lateral variations in viscosity on Antarctic mass balance estimates derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data. To this end, recently-developed global GIA models based on lateral variations in mantle temperature are tuned to fit constraints in the northern hemisphere and then compared to GPS-derived uplift rates in Antarctica.We find that these models can provide a better fit to GPS uplift rates in Antarctica than existing GIA models with a radially-varying (1D) rheology. When 3D viscosity models in combination with specific ice loading histories are used to correct GRACE measurements, mass loss in Antarctica is smaller than previously found for the same ice loading histories and their preferred 1D viscosity profiles. The variation in mass balance estimates arising from using different plausible realizations of 3D viscosity amounts to 20 Gt/yr for the ICE-5G ice model and 16 Gt/yr for the W12a ice model; these values are larger than the GRACE measurement error, but smaller than the variation arising from unknown ice history. While there exist 1D Earth models that can reproduce the total mass balance estimates derived using 3D Earth models, the spatial pattern of gravity rates can be significantly affected by 3D viscosity in a way that cannot be reproduced by GIA models with 1D viscosity. As an example, models with 1D viscosity always predict maximum gravity rates in the Ross Sea for the ICE-5G ice model, however, for one of the three preferred 3D models the maximum (for the same ice model) is found near the Weddell Sea. This demonstrates that 3D variations in viscosity affect the sensitivity of present-day uplift and gravity rates to changes in the timing of the ice history. In particular, low viscosities (<1019 Pas) found in West Antarctica make the mantle very sensitive to recent changes in ice thickness.

Low post-glacial rebound rates in the Weddell Sea due to Late Holocene ice-sheet readvance

Many ice-sheet reconstructions assume monotonic Holocene retreat for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but an increasing number of glaciological observations infer that some portions of the ice sheet may be readvancing, following retreat behind the present-day margin. A readvance in the Weddell Sea region can reconcile two outstanding problems: (i) the present-day widespread occurrence of seemingly stable ice streams grounded on beds that deepen inland; and (ii) the inability of models of glacial isostatic adjustment to match present-day uplift rates. By combining a suite of ice loading histories that include a readvance with a model of glacial isostatic adjustment we report substantial improvements to predictions of present-day uplift rates, including reconciling one problematic observation of land sinking. We suggest retreat behind present grounding lines occurred when the bed was lower, and isostatic recovery has since led to shallowing, ice sheet re-grounding and readvance. The paradoxical existence of grounding lines in apparently unstable configurations on reverse bed slopes may be resolved by invoking the process of unstable advance, in accordance with our load modelling.

Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics

Abstract. The Antarctic bedrock is evolving as the solid Earth responds to the past and ongoing evolution of the ice sheet. A recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has generally been losing its mass since the Last Glacial Maximum. In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace, primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves. We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS. We find that past loading is relatively less important than future loading for the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years AD 2100 and 2500, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay will approach roughly 45 mm yr−1 in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is generally associated with the flattening of reverse bed slope, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote stability in marine portions of the ice sheet in the future.

Optimal locations of sea-level indicators in glacial isostatic adjustment investigations

Abstract. Fréchet (sensitivity) kernels are an important tool in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) investigations to understand lithospheric thickness, mantle viscosity and ice-load model variations. These parameters influence the interpretation of geologic, geophysical and geodetic data, which contribute to our understanding of global change. We discuss global sensitivities of relative sea-level (RSL) data of the last 18 000 years. This also includes indicative RSL-like data (e.g., lake levels) on the continents far off the coasts. We present detailed sensitivity maps for four parameters important in GIA investigations (ice-load history, lithospheric thickness, background viscosity, lateral viscosity variations) for up to nine dedicated times. Assuming an accuracy of 2 m of RSL data of all ages (based on analysis of currently available data), we highlight areas around the world where, if the environmental conditions allowed its deposition and survival until today, RSL data of at least this accuracy may help to quantify the GIA modeling parameters above. The sensitivity to ice-load history variations is the dominating pattern covering almost the whole world before about 13 ka (calendar years before 1950). The other three parameters show distinct patterns, but are almost everywhere overlapped by the ice-load history pattern. The more recent the data are, the smaller the area of possible RSL locations that could provide enough information to a parameter. Such an area is mainly limited to the area of former glaciation, but we also note that when the accuracy of RSL data can be improved, e.g., from 2 m to 1 m, these areas become larger, allowing better inference of background viscosity and lateral heterogeneity. Although the patterns depend on the chosen models and error limit, our results are indicative enough to outline areas where one should look for helpful RSL data of a certain time period. Our results also indicate that as long as the ice-load history is not sufficiently known, the inference of lateral heterogeneities in mantle viscosity or lithospheric thickness will be interfered by the uncertainty of the ice model.

Lithosphere and upper-mantle structure of the southern Baltic Sea estimated from modelling relative sea-level data with glacial isostatic adjustment

Abstract. During the last glacial maximum, a large ice sheet covered Scandinavia, which depressed the earth's surface by several 100 m. In northern central Europe, mass redistribution in the upper mantle led to the development of a peripheral bulge. It has been subsiding since the begin of deglaciation due to the viscoelastic behaviour of the mantle. We analyse relative sea-level (RSL) data of southern Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Poland and Lithuania to determine the lithospheric thickness and radial mantle viscosity structure for distinct regional RSL subsets. We load a 1-D Maxwell-viscoelastic earth model with a global ice-load history model of the last glaciation. We test two commonly used ice histories, RSES from the Australian National University and ICE-5G from the University of Toronto. Our results indicate that the lithospheric thickness varies, depending on the ice model used, between 60 and 160 km. The lowest values are found in the Oslo Graben area and the western German Baltic Sea coast. In between, thickness increases by at least 30 km tracing the Ringkøbing-Fyn High. In Poland and Lithuania, lithospheric thickness reaches up to 160 km. However, the latter values are not well constrained as the confidence regions are large. Upper-mantle viscosity is found to bracket [2–7] × 1020 Pa s when using ICE-5G. Employing RSES much higher values of 2 × 1021 Pa s are obtained for the southern Baltic Sea. Further investigations should evaluate whether this ice-model version and/or the RSL data need revision. We confirm that the lower-mantle viscosity in Fennoscandia can only be poorly resolved. The lithospheric structure inferred from RSES partly supports structural features of regional and global lithosphere models based on thermal or seismological data. While there is agreement in eastern Europe and southwest Sweden, the structure in an area from south of Norway to northern Germany shows large discrepancies for two of the tested lithosphere models. The lithospheric thickness as determined with ICE-5G does not agree with the lithosphere models. Hence, more investigations have to be undertaken to sufficiently determine structures such as the Ringkøbing-Fyn High as seen with seismics with the help of glacial isostatic adjustment modelling.