Ice Flow Model Research Articles

Numerical modelling of the historic front variation and the future behaviour of the Pasterze glacier, Austria

An ice-flow model is used to simulate the front variations of the Pasterze glacier, Austria. The model deals explicitly with the ice flux from sub-streams and tributaries to the main ice stream. The dynamic calibration method adopted successfully calibrates the ice-flow model under a non-steady-state condition. Despite the complexity of the glacier geometry, the ice dynamics of the Pasterze are adequately simulated.Results of the sensitivity experiments suggest that the Pasterze glacier has been in a non-steady state most of the time and has a response time of 34–50 years.Projections of the behaviour of the Pasterze in the next 100 years are made under various climate scenarios. Results suggest that the Pasterze will undergo a substantial retreat if there is future warming. The glacier is likely to retreat 2–5 km by the year 2100. The ice volume could be reduced by 24–63% by the end of the 21st century.

Simulation of the historical variations in length of Unterer Grindelwaldgletscher, Switzerland

AbstractThe historical length variations in Unterer Grindelwaldgletscher have been simulated by coupling a numerical mass-balance model to a dynamic ice-flow model. As forcing functions, we used (partly reconstructed) local climatic records, which were transformed by the mass-balance model into a mass-balance history. The ice-flow model then computes the length variations that have occurred over the course of time.In a model run from AD 1530 to the present, with both seasonal temperature and precipitation variations as forcing functions, the observed maximum length of the glacier around AD 1860 and the subsequent retreat are simulated. The observed AD 1600 maximum, however, does not show up in the simulation. This is probably due to an incorrect reconstruction of the mass balance for this period, as detailed climatic data are available only since 1865. The root-mean-square difference between the simulated and the observed front positions is 0.28 km. The simulated glacier geometry for 1987 fits the observed geometry for that year reasonably well.Because of the success of the historical simulation, an attempt is made to predict future glacier retreat on the basis of two different greenhouse-gas scenarios. For a Business-as-Usual scenario, only 29% of the 1990 volume would remain in AD 2100.

A search in north Greenland for a new ice-core drill site

AbstractA new deep ice-core drilling site has been identified in north Greenland at 75.12° N, 42.30° W, 316 km north-northwest (NNW) of the GRIР drill site on the summit of the ice sheet. The ice thickness here is 3085 m; the surface elevation is 2919 m.The North GRIP (NGRIP) site is identified so that ice of Eemian age (115–130 ka BP,calendar years before present) is located as far above bedrock as possible and so the thickness of the Eemian layer is as great as possible. An ice-flow model, similar to the one used to date the GRIP ice core, is used to simulate the flow along the NNW-trending ice ridge. Surface and bedrock elevations, surface accumulation-rate distribution and radio-echo sounding along the ridge have been used as model input.The surface accumulation rate drops from 0.23 m fee equivalent year−1 at GRIP to 0.19 m ice equivalent year−1 50 km from GRIP. Over the following 300km the accumulation is relatively constant, before it starts decreasing again further north. Ice thicknesses up to 3250 m bring the temperature of the basal ice up to the pressure-melting point 100–250 km from GRIP. The NGRIP site islocated 316 km from GRIP in a region where the bedrock is smooth and the accumulation rate is 0.19 m ice equivalent year−1. The modeled basal ice here has always been a few degrees below the pressure-melting point. Internal radio-echo sounding horizons can be traced between the GRIP and NGRIP sites, allowing us to date the ice down to 2300 m depth (52 ka BP). An ice-flow model predicts that the Eemian-age ice will be located in the depth range 2710–2800 m, which is 285 m above the bedrock. This is 120 m further above the bedrock, and the thickness of the Eemian layer of ice is 20 m thicker, than at the GRIP ice-core site.

A search in north Greenland for a new ice-core drill site

AbstractA new deep ice-core drilling site has been identified in north Greenland at 75.12° N, 42.30° W, 316 km north-northwest (NNW) of the GRIР drill site on the summit of the ice sheet. The ice thickness here is 3085 m; the surface elevation is 2919 m.The North GRIP (NGRIP) site is identified so that ice of Eemian age (115–130 ka BP,calendar years before present) is located as far above bedrock as possible and so the thickness of the Eemian layer is as great as possible. An ice-flow model, similar to the one used to date the GRIP ice core, is used to simulate the flow along the NNW-trending ice ridge. Surface and bedrock elevations, surface accumulation-rate distribution and radio-echo sounding along the ridge have been used as model input.The surface accumulation rate drops from 0.23 m fee equivalent year−1at GRIP to 0.19 m ice equivalent year−150 km from GRIP. Over the following 300km the accumulation is relatively constant, before it starts decreasing again further north. Ice thicknesses up to 3250 m bring the temperature of the basal ice up to the pressure-melting point 100–250 km from GRIP. The NGRIP site islocated 316 km from GRIP in a region where the bedrock is smooth and the accumulation rate is 0.19 m ice equivalent year−1. The modeled basal ice here has always been a few degrees below the pressure-melting point. Internal radio-echo sounding horizons can be traced between the GRIP and NGRIP sites, allowing us to date the ice down to 2300 m depth (52 ka BP). An ice-flow model predicts that the Eemian-age ice will be located in the depth range 2710–2800 m, which is 285 m above the bedrock. This is 120 m further above the bedrock, and the thickness of the Eemian layer of ice is 20 m thicker, than at the GRIP ice-core site.

Simulation of the historical variations in length of Unterer Grindelwaldgletscher, Switzerland

AbstractThe historical length variations in Unterer Grindelwaldgletscher have been simulated by coupling a numerical mass-balance model to a dynamic ice-flow model. As forcing functions, we used (partly reconstructed) local climatic records, which were transformed by the mass-balance model into a mass-balance history. The ice-flow model then computes the length variations that have occurred over the course of time.In a model run from AD 1530 to the present, with both seasonal temperature and precipitation variations as forcing functions, the observed maximum length of the glacier around AD 1860 and the subsequent retreat are simulated. The observed AD 1600 maximum, however, does not show up in the simulation. This is probably due to an incorrect reconstruction of the mass balance for this period, as detailed climatic data are available only since 1865. The root-mean-square difference between the simulated and the observed front positions is 0.28 km. The simulated glacier geometry for 1987 fits the observed geometry for that year reasonably well.Because of the success of the historical simulation, an attempt is made to predict future glacier retreat on the basis of two different greenhouse-gas scenarios. For a Business-as-Usual scenario, only 29% of the 1990 volume would remain in AD 2100.

Numerical modelling of the historic front variation and the future behaviour of the Pasterze glacier, Austria

An ice-flow model is used to simulate the front variations of the Pasterze glacier, Austria. The model deals explicitly with the ice flux from sub-streams and tributaries to the main ice stream. The dynamic calibration method adopted successfully calibrates the ice-flow model under a non-steady-state condition. Despite the complexity of the glacier geometry, the ice dynamics of the Pasterze are adequately simulated. Results of the sensitivity experiments suggest that the Pasterze glacier has been in a non-steady state most of the time and has a response time of 34–50 years. Projections of the behaviour of the Pasterze in the next 100 years are made under various climate scenarios. Results suggest that the Pasterze will undergo a substantial retreat if there is future warming. The glacier is likely to retreat 2–5 km by the year 2100. The ice volume could be reduced by 24–63% by the end of the 21st century.

Numerical simulation of fluctuations of Hintereisferner, Ötztal Alps, since AD 1850

A one-dimensional ice flow model was adapted to reconstruct fluctuations of Hintereisferner, Ötztal Alps, since the last postglacial maximum in the mid-19th century. Both front positions and longitudinal ice thickness profiles were considered. As forcing function the specific mass balance was used. The model was calibrated with the period 1953–91, because since 1953 the mass balance has been determined directly. For the period before 1953, as a first step so-called dendro-mass balances (derived from tree rings) were used. Then the mass balance was also parameterized as a function of temperature and precipitation from adjacent climate stations. With both forcings Hintereisferner could be reconstructed back to about 1850 with an accuracy that lies within the accuracy of the model (200 m grid-point distance).

Numerical simulation of fluctuations of Hintereisferner, Ötztal Alps, since AD 1850

A one-dimensional ice flow model was adapted to reconstruct fluctuations of Hintereisferner, Ötztal Alps, since the last postglacial maximum in the mid-19th century. Both front positions and longitudinal ice thickness profiles were considered.As forcing function the specific mass balance was used. The model was calibrated with the period 1953–91, because since 1953 the mass balance has been determined directly. For the period before 1953, as a first step so-called dendro-mass balances (derived from tree rings) were used. Then the mass balance was also parameterized as a function of temperature and precipitation from adjacent climate stations. With both forcings Hintereisferner could be reconstructed back to about 1850 with an accuracy that lies within the accuracy of the model (200 m grid-point distance).

MODELLING CLIMATE, TOPOGRAPHY AND PALAEOGLACIER FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CHILEAN ANDES

A one-dimensional flowline model has been constructed, tested and applied to two formerly glaciated valley basins within the Chilean Lake District. The vertically integrated ice flow model is similar to those used to study historical fluctuations of European Alpine glaciers and includes terms for internal deformation and basal sliding. In addition, longitudinal deviatoric stresses are computed and velocity terms are correspondingly adjusted. The model is driven through a mass balance term forced by a stepped lowering of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) through time. Experiments, based on generating equilibrium glacier surface profiles corresponding to various ELAs, indicate that a lowering of at least 1000 m of the ELA from its present-day position is required to simulate the glacial maximum. Furthermore, the specific geometry of the two valleys provides an important control on the extent of the two glaciers, effectively decoupling them from further climatic deterioration once they have advanced beyond the constraining influence of their valleys into the piedmont zone. The tight nesting of terminal moraine loops provides evidence for this topographical control on palaeoglacier extent. The modelled response and sensitivity of the two palaeoglaciers to climate change differ markedly as a result of contrasting valley geometry. Glaciers resting on steeper gradients tend to have thinner profiles, faster mass turnover times and correspondingly shorter volume time-scales. Puyehue glacier has a response time of c. 1000 years whereas the Rupanco glacier has a response time of c. 2000 years. Hence, Puyehue is more sensitive to climatic fluctuations occurring on a time-scale of 500–1000 years. Furthermore, the Rupanco glacier may lag or even fail to respond at all to climatic fluctuations at these time-scales, a conclusion substantiated by field evidence. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Asynchronously coupling the cryosphere and atmosphere in an energy-balance climate model

A major component of the climate system on the 10 000-100 000 year time-scales is continental ice sheets, yet many of the mechanisms involved in the land-sea-ice processes that affect the ice sheets are poorly understood. In order to examine these processes in more detail, we have developed a coupled energy balance climate-thermodynamic sea-ice—continental-ice-sheet model (CCSLI model). This model includes a hydrologic cycle, a detailed surface energy and mass balance, a thermodynamic sea-ice model, and a zonally averaged dynamic ice-flow model with bedrock depression.Because of the variety of space and time-scales inherent in such a model, we have asynchronously coupled the land—ice model to the other components of the model. In this paper the asynchronous coupling is described and sensitivity studies are presented that determine the values of the asynchronous coupling parameters. Model simulations using these values allow the model to run nearly ten times faster with minimal changes in the final state of the ice sheet.

Predicted age‐depth scales for Siple Dome and Inland WAIS Ice Cores in west Antarctica

Geophysical data are used with ice flow models and generalized accumulation histories to estimate age and annual layer thickness versus depth for two anticipated ice core sites in West Antarctica: Siple Dome (81.65°S, 148.81°W) and an inland site on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). This modeling experiment predicts that 104 year‐old ice is at ∼50% depth and 105 year‐old ice is at ∼90% depth at both sites. Both of these cores could contain climate information through the last glacial cycle with annual resolution through the Holocene. The predicted similarity in resolution and record length between the two cores suggests that they could be compared in detail to obtain both spatial and temporal information about the paleoclimate and history of the West Antarctic ice sheet.

Glacier Dynamics around Slieve Bloom, Central Ireland

Analyses of both till and glacioaqueous sedimentary fabrics and their lithological characteristics have been carried out on sediments sampled at eight sites located around the northern margin and piedmont of Slieve Bloom. Results indicate that Slieve Bloom was overtopped by ice (lowing locally from between the south-south-west and west. The pattern of ice (low indicated by the sedimentary fabrics, the presence in the glacigenic sediments of a distinctive variety of Galway granite and the spatial variability of limestone in these sediments indicate that this local flow direction resulted from the deflection to the north-north-east of ice (lowing from the west. As the most widely accepted ice flow model for this region during the last glaciation requires ice (low to have been from between north-north-west and north-north-east, the results presented in this paper have important implications for the modelling of regional ice (low in the Irish midlands during the last glaciation.

Quaternary geology of the Buchans area, Newfoundland: implications for mineral exploration

Mineral exploration for volcanogenic massive sulphide deposits in the Buchans area of central Newfoundland is hindered by thick and widespread Quaternary overburden comprising glacial, glaciolacustrine, glaciofluvial, and resedimented deposits. Mapping of striations and indicator erratics suggests that the area was affected by four ice-flow events: I, southward; II, northeastward and westward to southwestward; III, southward; and IV, northeastward and southwestward. Vertical and areal distributions of lead, copper, and zinc indicate that till and glaciolacustrine sediments overlying sulphide deposits can be enriched in mineralized debris. Near mines at Buchans surficial debris-flow deposits contain much material derived from the Topsails igneous terrane and are generally impoverished in mineralized debris. Southwest of Buchans, however, they can be enriched. Mineral exploration in the Buchans area must take into account that (i) sulphide-rich debris in till does not reflect only the youngest ice-flow event; (ii) glaciolacustrine sedimentation and resedimentation can result in burial of older sediments containing mineralized debris, in the redistribution of that debris, and in the geochemical masking of subcropping ore deposits; (iii) dispersal of sulphide debris during resedimentation is not necessarily related to ice-flow directions indicated by striations; (iv) a geochemical dispersal train originating at Buchans reflects both southwestward glacial transport and later redistribution of mineralized debris within debris-flow and glaciolacustrine deposits; and (v) marked geochemical variations with depth can occur with small variations in sampling depth, reflecting change in provenance and depositional process. The depositional and ice-flow model developed for the Buchans area likely has wider application in central Newfoundland.

Steady-state thermomechanical modelling of ice flow near the centre of large ice sheets with the finite-element technique

A finite-element model is developed in order to calculate the coupled ice and heat flow and the surface topography in cold, steady-state ice sheets. The model decouples the heat-flow equation and the surface mass-balance condition from the rest of the equations and solves the problem by an iterative method. The model is used to examine the thermomechanics of ice divides. Initial studies of a symmetric, plane ice divide and an axisymmetric ice divide have led to the following conclusions, which are consistent with previous results. The ice-divide zone is a narrow region, only a few ice thicknesses wide, where the surface slope drops to zero and the flow solution changes. The longitudinal strain rate is high, especially in the upper layers, and the vertical velocity is smaller than away from the divide. This causes the basal temperatures to increase and the isochrones to rise. Divergent-flow conditions widen the ice-divide zone, whereas they do not influence the solution at the ice divide.

Steady-state thermomechanical modelling of ice flow near the centre of large ice sheets with the finite-element technique

A finite-element model is developed in order to calculate the coupled ice and heat flow and the surface topography in cold, steady-state ice sheets. The model decouples the heat-flow equation and the surface mass-balance condition from the rest of the equations and solves the problem by an iterative method. The model is used to examine the thermomechanics of ice divides. Initial studies of a symmetric, plane ice divide and an axisymmetric ice divide have led to the following conclusions, which are consistent with previous results. The ice-divide zone is a narrow region, only a few ice thicknesses wide, where the surface slope drops to zero and the flow solution changes. The longitudinal strain rate is high, especially in the upper layers, and the vertical velocity is smaller than away from the divide. This causes the basal temperatures to increase and the isochrones to rise. Divergent-flow conditions widen the ice-divide zone, whereas they do not influence the solution at the ice divide.

Climate sensitivity of the ice cap of King George Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica

A two-dimensional vertically integrated ice-flow model has been used to simulate the current state of the ice cap of King George Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica, as well as the sensitivity of this state to climate change. The model was forced by an energy-balance model that generates the specific mass balance from climatological input data of two research stations. It proved difficult to simulate-satisfactorily the entire geometry of the present-day ice cap. Nevertheless, it was possible to simulate a steady-state ice cap whose volume and areal extent approximate the (estimated) current situation. Several experiments have indicated that this state is highly sensitive to climate change. The model predicts that cooling by 1 K will increase the ice volume by 10% and warming by 1 K will decrease it by 36%. A 10% change in precipitation will alter the ice volume by less than 8%. Application of the IPCC-90 Business-as-Usual scenario leads to a 55% reduction in the ice volume by the yearAD2100, compared to the present-day situation. The response of the ice cap to warming is therefore totally different from the response of the main Antarctic ice sheet which is believed to gain mass by increasing temperatures.

Climate sensitivity of the ice cap of King George Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica

A two-dimensional vertically integrated ice-flow model has been used to simulate the current state of the ice cap of King George Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica, as well as the sensitivity of this state to climate change. The model was forced by an energy-balance model that generates the specific mass balance from climatological input data of two research stations. It proved difficult to simulate-satisfactorily the entire geometry of the present-day ice cap. Nevertheless, it was possible to simulate a steady-state ice cap whose volume and areal extent approximate the (estimated) current situation. Several experiments have indicated that this state is highly sensitive to climate change. The model predicts that cooling by 1 K will increase the ice volume by 10% and warming by 1 K will decrease it by 36%. A 10% change in precipitation will alter the ice volume by less than 8%. Application of the IPCC-90 Business-as-Usual scenario leads to a 55% reduction in the ice volume by the year AD 2100, compared to the present-day situation. The response of the ice cap to warming is therefore totally different from the response of the main Antarctic ice sheet which is believed to gain mass by increasing temperatures.

The Eem Stable Isotope Record along the GRIP Ice Core and Its Interpretation

A 3029-m-long deep ice core extending nearly to bedrock has been drilled at the very top of the Greenland ice sheet (Summit) by the Greenland Ice-core Project (GRIP), an international European joint effort organized by the European Science Foundation. The ice core reaches back to 250,000 yr B.P. according to dating based partly on stratigraphic methods and partly on ice-flow modeling. A continuous and detailed stable isotope (δ18O) profile along the entire core depicts dramatic temperature changes in Greenland through the last two glacial cycles, including abrupt climatic shifts during the Eem/Sangamon Interglaciation, which is elsewhere recorded as a warm and stable period. The stratigraphic continuity of the Eemian layers has therefore been scrutinized. New ice core studies, comprising cloudy band observations, deconvolution, and frequency analyses, lead to the conclusion that the climate instability suggested during the Eem Interglaciation in Greenland is likely to be real, though no conclusive evidence is available. Whereas latitudinal displacements of the North Atlantic Ocean current are considered the immediate cause of the glacial climate instability, longitudinal displacements may be the immediate cause of the Eemian instability. If so, the Eemian climate changes will be much subdued outside the Arctic region and will probably only be recognizable in sedimentary sequences of high sensitivity and temporal resolution.

The waxing and waning of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets

Past modelling studies have shown that the energy balance of the ice-sheet surface is of primary importance in representing the 100 000 year glacial cycle. In particular, modelling of the net mass-balance function is an important part of coupled ice-sheet/climate models. We conduct a series of palaeoclimatic simulations with a vertically integrated ice-flow model coupled to the two-dimensional statistical-dynamical LLN (Louvain-la-Neuve) climate model. The models are coupled through a land-surface model which computes seasonal cycles of surface temperature and precipitation at the real altitude of the surface and evaluates the annual snow and/or ice-mass budget. The present-day climate of the Northern Hemisphere, the Greenland mass balance and the snowfield characteristics are quite well represented despite the relative simplicity of the model. Total ice-volume and sea-level variations during the last glacial cycle are well simulated. This suggests that the physical mechanisms included in the models are sufficient to explain the most striking features of the ice-age cycle. Introducing an improved and more detailed topography improves the simulation of the total ice volume but fails to correct inadequacies in the simulated ice distribution on the surface of the Earth.

The waxing and waning of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets

Past modelling studies have shown that the energy balance of the ice-sheet surface is of primary importance in representing the 100 000 year glacial cycle. In particular, modelling of the net mass-balance function is an important part of coupled ice-sheet/climate models. We conduct a series of palaeoclimatic simulations with a vertically integrated ice-flow model coupled to the two-dimensional statistical-dynamical LLN (Louvain-la-Neuve) climate model. The models are coupled through a land-surface model which computes seasonal cycles of surface temperature and precipitation at the real altitude of the surface and evaluates the annual snow and/or ice-mass budget. The present-day climate of the Northern Hemisphere, the Greenland mass balance and the snowfield characteristics are quite well represented despite the relative simplicity of the model. Total ice-volume and sea-level variations during the last glacial cycle are well simulated. This suggests that the physical mechanisms included in the models are sufficient to explain the most striking features of the ice-age cycle. Introducing an improved and more detailed topography improves the simulation of the total ice volume but fails to correct inadequacies in the simulated ice distribution on the surface of the Earth.