Ice Export Research Articles

Lack of bipolar see‐saw in response to Southern Ocean wind reduction

A cessation of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) significantly reduces northward oceanic heat transport. In response to anomalous freshwater flux, this leads to the classic ‘bipolar see‐saw’ pattern of northern cooling and southern warming in surface air and ocean temperatures. By contrast, as shown here in a coupled climate model, both northern and southern cooling are observed for an AMOC reduction in response to reduced wind stress in the Southern Ocean (SO). For very weak SO wind stress, not only the overturning circulation collapses, but sea ice export from the SO is strongly reduced. Consequently, sea ice extent and albedo increase in this region. The resulting cooling overcompensates the warming by the reduced northward heat transport. The effect depends continuously on changes in wind stress and is reversed for increased winds. It may have consequences for abrupt climate change, the last deglaciation and climate sensitivity to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration.

A Hemispheric Mechanism for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Abstract The physical processes associated with the ∼70-yr period climate mode, known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), are examined. Based on analyses of observational data, a deterministic mechanism relying on atmosphere–ocean–sea ice interactions is proposed for the AMO. Variations in the thermohaline circulation are reflected as uniform sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic. These anomalies are associated with a hemispheric wavenumber-1 sea level pressure (SLP) structure in the atmosphere that is amplified through atmosphere–ocean interactions in the North Pacific. The SLP pattern and its associated wind field affect the sea ice export through Fram Strait, the freshwater balance in the northern North Atlantic, and consequently the strength of the large-scale ocean circulation. It generates sea surface temperature anomalies with opposite signs in the North Atlantic and completes a negative feedback. The authors find that the time scale of the cycle is associated with the thermohaline circulation adjustment to freshwater forcing, the SST response to it, the oceanic adjustment in the North Pacific, and the sea ice response to the wind forcing. Finally, it is argued that the Great Salinity Anomaly in the late 1960s and 1970s is part of AMO.

Simulated Variability of the Arctic Ocean Freshwater Balance 1948–2001

Abstract The Arctic Ocean freshwater balance over the period 1948–2001 is examined using results from a hindcast simulation with an ocean–sea ice model of the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Atmospheric forcing is taken from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and different terrestrial freshwater sources as well as the Bering Strait throughflow are specified as constant seasonal cycles. The long-term variability of the Arctic Ocean liquid freshwater content is determined by the variability of lateral exchanges with the subpolar seas. Surface freshwater flux variability is dominated by the thermodynamic growth of sea ice. This component of the freshwater balance has larger variability at interannual frequencies. The Arctic Ocean liquid freshwater content was at a maximum in the middle of the 1960s. Extremely low liquid freshwater export through Fram Strait caused this maximum in the freshwater content. The low export rate was related to weak volume transports in the East Greenland Current. Low volume transports were forced by a reduction in sea surface height across Fram Strait, triggered by anomalous meltwater from Barents Sea ice export that was carried toward Fram Strait with the West Spitzbergen Current. After the 1960s maximum liquid freshwater content, the Arctic Ocean gradually returned to an equilibrium between export through the passages toward the Atlantic and the freshwater sources.

Sea ice drift variability in Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project models and observations

Drift is a prominent parameter characterizing the Arctic sea ice cover that has a deep impact on the climate system. Hence it is a key issue to both the remote sensing as well as the modeling community, to provide reliable sea ice drift fields. This study focuses on the comparison of sea ice drift results from different sea ice‐ocean coupled models and the validation with observational data in the period 1979–2001. The models all take part in the Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP) and the observations are mainly based on satellite imagery. According to speed distributions, one class of models has a mode at drift speeds around 3 cm s−1 and a short tail toward higher speeds. Another class shows a more even frequency distribution with large probability of drift speeds of 10 to 20 cm s−1. Observations clearly agree better with the first class of model results. Reasons for these differences are manifold and lie in discrepancies of wind stress forcing as well as sea ice model characteristics and sea ice‐ocean coupling. Moreover, we investigated the drift patterns of anticyclonic and cyclonic wind‐driven regimes. The models are capable of producing realistic drift pattern variability. The winter of 1994/1995 stands out because of its maximum in Fram Strait ice export. Although export estimates of some models agree with observations, the corresponding inner Arctic drift pattern is not reproduced. The reason for this is found in the wind‐forcing as well as in differences in ocean velocities.

Near zero replenishment of the Arctic multiyear sea ice cover at the end of 2005 summer

The remarkably low Arctic multiyear (MY) sea ice coverage following the summer of 2005 is placed in the context of its variability over the past seven years (2000–2006). Annual cycles of MY ice coverage, from QuikSCAT and satellite passive ice motion, show that the replenishment of MY ice area at the end of this summer is near zero (0.1 × 106 km2) compared to the previous five summers of 1.0, 1.2, 0.4, 0.4, and 0.9 × 106 km2. This is examined in terms of anomalies in ice export and the record of freezing (FDD) and melting degree‐days (MDD). The 2005 summer (Jun–Sep) saw the highest Fram Strait ice export (>0.25 × 106 km2) compared to the 7‐year mean of 0.14 × 106 km2. This directly explains ∼40% of the decrease in MY coverage of 0.6 × 106 km2 between Jan 2005 and Jan 2006. The cumulative effects of the recent warmer winters and summers, relative to the longer‐term record since 1958, explain the balance. For this short record, the combination of spatially averaged FDD and MDD anomalies of the preceding year explain ∼63% of the variance in the replenishment areas.

Steric Sea Level Change in the Northern Seas

Abstract Ocean temperature and salinity data over the period 1950–2000 in the Northern Seas, defined here as the North Atlantic Ocean (north of 50°N), North Pacific Ocean (north of 40°N), and Arctic Oceans, are combined to diagnose the steric (i.e., density) contribution to sea level variation. The individual contributions to steric height from temperature (thermosteric height) and salinity (halosteric height) are also analyzed. It is found that during 1950–2000, steric height rose over the study’s domain, mostly as a result of halosteric increases (i.e., freshening). Over a shorter time period (late 1960s to early 1990s) during which climate indices changed dramatically, steric height gradients near the Nordic Seas minimum were reduced by 18%–32%. It is speculated that this may be associated with a local slowing of both the Meridional Overturning Circulation and the southward flow through Fram Strait. However, steric height increases in the North Pacific Ocean during this time imply a possible acceleration of flow through the poorly measured Canadian Arctic. Evidence that the Great Salinity Anomaly of the late 1960s and 1970s had two distinct Arctic Ocean sources is also found: a late 1960s export of sea ice, and a delayed but more sustained 1970s export of liquid (ocean) freshwater. A simple calculation indicates that these Arctic Ocean freshwater sources were not sufficient to create the 1970s freshening observed in the North Atlantic Ocean.

The areas and ice production of the western and central Ross Sea polynyas, 1992–2002, and their relation to the B-15 and C-19 iceberg events of 2000 and 2002

For 1992–2002, the paper investigates the heat loss and area of three polynyas in the western and central Ross Sea. These are the Ross Sea Polynya (RSP) and the much smaller Terra Nova Bay and McMurdo Sound polynyas. The importance of these polynyas is that their associated salt rejection contributes to the formation of the High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) that is crucial to the Antarctic Bottom Water formation. The study divides into two parts, 1992–1999, when there was negligible iceberg activity, and 2000–2002, when major icebergs calved and interacted with the polynyas. To retrieve the ice thicknesses and heat fluxes within the polynyas, the paper uses an algorithm based on the ratio of the vertically and horizontally polarized Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) 25-km resolution 37-GHz channels, combined with meteorological data. Because of sidelobe contamination, the ice shelf and icebergs are masked. Our results show that for the polynyas, and consistent with other observations, their mean winter area is about 30,000 km 2 and their combined ice production is about 500 km 3y − 1 . We also find that the polynya ice production approximately equals the ice export. This is in contrast to the Weddell Sea, where the polynya ice production equals about 6% of the ice export. For the years 2000 and 2002, the calving of large icebergs directly affect the ice production by inhibiting the ice production off the shelf due to piling up of first year ice upwind of the bergs and by generating new polynyas downwind of the bergs. The period 1992–2001 exhibits an upward trend in polynya productivity. The decadal increase in the ice production suggests that the observed HSSW salinity decrease in the western Ross Sea is not due to the polynyas, but is rather due to a change in the properties of the water flowing into the Ross.

Outflow of Summertime Arctic Sea Ice Observed by Ice Drifting Buoys and Its Linkage with Ice Reduction and Atmospheric Circulation Patterns

Drifting buoys deployed near the North Pole in the 2000s revealed that sea-ice export from the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait was large in 2005. The relationship between ice drift and sea-level pressure (SLP) showed that the mean SLP from June to September is conducive to continuous sea-ice drift offshore from Siberia. A record minimum of the ice extent in 2005 is partly explained by the strongest SLP gradient across the Transpolar Drift Stream for the recent 27 years from 1979. The SLP pattern regressed on the linear trends of ice extent is characterized by cyclonic circulation anomalies along the Eurasian coast, which tend to enhance the SLP gradient across the Transpolar Drift Stream. The large export of freshwater and sea ice in 2005 could increase the salinity of the upper ocean and lead to development of the mixed layer and suppression of sea-ice growth during the subsequent winter.

Simulated Arctic Ocean Freshwater Budgets in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries

Abstract The Arctic Ocean freshwater budgets in climate model integrations of the twentieth and twenty-first century are examined. An ensemble of six members of the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) is used for the analysis, allowing the anthropogenically forced trends over the integration length to be assessed. Mechanisms driving trends in the budgets are diagnosed, and the implications of changes in the Arctic–North Atlantic exchange on the Labrador Sea and Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian (GIN) Seas properties are discussed. Over the twentieth and the twenty-first centuries, the Arctic freshens as a result of increased river runoff, net precipitation, and decreased ice growth. For many of the budget terms, the maximum 50-yr trends in the time series occur from approximately 1975 to 2025, suggesting that we are currently in the midst of large Arctic change. The total freshwater exchange between the Arctic and North Atlantic increases over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries with decreases in ice export more than compensated for by an increase in the liquid freshwater export. Changes in both the liquid and solid (ice) Fram Strait freshwater fluxes are transported southward by the East Greenland Current and partially removed from the GIN Seas. Nevertheless, reductions in GIN sea ice melt do result from the reduced Fram Strait transport and account for the largest term in the changing ocean surface freshwater fluxes in this region. This counteracts the increased ocean stability due to the warming climate and helps to maintain GIN sea deep-water formation.

Arctic dipole anomaly and its contribution to sea ice export from the Arctic Ocean in the 20th century

The winter dipole anomaly (DA) in the Arctic atmosphere and its contribution to sea ice export are investigated by using a high‐resolution coupled global general circulation model. The spatial distributions of the first two leading EOF modes of winter mean sea level pressure (SLP) and geopotential height at 500 hPa north of 70°N obtained by the long‐term simulation (1900–2010) are highly similar to those derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for the Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis datasets (1948–2004). The first‐leading mode corresponds to the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The DA is defined as the second‐leading mode. The AO and DA account for 59% and 19% of the total variance, respectively. Composite spatial patterns of SLP, sea ice thickness and velocity in the extreme years when both the absolute values of principal component (PC1 and PC2) exceed 1.0 standard deviation indicate that the DA plays a great important role in sea ice export from the Arctic Ocean to the Greenland Sea due to its strong meridionality. Sea ice export is highly promoted (restricted) in the positive (negative) DA phase. The dependence of sea ice export on the DA is comparable to or rather larger than that on the AO.

Natural variability of Arctic sea ice over the Holocene

The area and volume of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is decreasing, with some predicting ice‐free summers by 2100 A.D. [Johannessen et al., 2004]. The implications of these trends for transportation and ecosystems are profound; for example, summer shipping through the Northwest Passage could be possible, while loss of sea ice could cause stress for polar bears. Moreover, global climate may be affected through albedo feedbacks and increased sea ice production and export. With more open water, more new sea ice forms in winter, which melts and/or gets exported out of the Arctic.

Sensitivity of the thermohaline circulation to Arctic Ocean runoff

Arctic Ocean river runoff increases over the 20th century raise concerns of the potential impact it may have on the thermohaline circulation (THC) and thus global climate. This study investigates how changes in Arctic river discharge may control THC by a series of experiments with an intermediate complexity global climate model. The experiments show an inverse relationship between THC strength and changes to riverine freshwater discharge, similar to the response of THC to surface freshening of the North Atlantic. Arctic Ocean freshwater export and volume were more sensitive to river runoff than sea ice export. A strong linear relationship between the THC strength and the steric height gradient (depth integrated density anomaly and an important driver for the western boundary current) suggests that the Arctic freshwater pools and fluxes are very effective in translating changes in runoff to THC strength by regulating the ocean water density in the North Atlantic.

Impact of the Northern annular mode on the freshwater exchange between the Arctic and the North Atlantic

The variability of the ice and freshwater transports through the main openings of the Nordic Seas is studied based on a 200-year simulation with a sea ice–ocean model forced by stochastic surface wind stress anomalies representative of Northern annular mode (NAM). The spectrum of the ice export through Fram Strait (FS), which constitutes the main contribution to the total freshwater export anomaly from the Arctic, shows no significant peak though half of the variance is concentrated at periods longer than a year. The standard deviation of the freshwater export to the subpolar gyre through Denmark Strait only amounts to 40% of the standard deviation of the total (ice+liquid) freshwater export through FS, with a comparatively larger variance in the low-frequency range, suggesting that the Greenland Sea could act as a low-pass filter. In the upper layer of the Iceland–Scotland Passage, positive phases of the NAM lead to a fast increase of the northward volume and salt transports. Within 2 years, the salt transport anomaly, however, changes sign due to advection of negative salinity anomalies which originate in the subpolar gyre and can be traced up to the Barents Sea.

Dipole Anomaly in the Winter Arctic Atmosphere and Its Association with Sea Ice Motion

Abstract This paper identified an atmospheric circulation anomaly–dipole structure anomaly in the Arctic atmosphere and its relationship with winter sea ice motion, based on the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP) dataset (1979–98) and datasets from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for the period 1960–2002. The dipole anomaly corresponds to the second-leading mode of EOF of monthly mean sea level pressure (SLP) north of 70°N during the winter season (October–March) and accounts for 13% of the variance. One of its two anomalous centers is stably occupied between the Kara Sea and Laptev Sea; the other is situated from the Canadian Archipelago through Greenland extending southeastward to the Nordic seas. The dipole anomaly differs from one described in other papers that can be attributed to an eastward shift of the center of action of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The finding shows that the dipole anomaly also differs from the “Barents Oscillation” revealed in a study by Skeie. Since the dipole anomaly shows a strong meridionality, it becomes an important mechanism to drive both anomalous sea ice exports out of the Arctic Basin and cold air outbreaks into the Barents Sea, the Nordic seas, and northern Europe. When the dipole anomaly remains in its positive phase, that is, negative SLP anomalies appear between the Kara Sea and the Laptev Sea with concurrent positive SLP over from the Canadian Archipelago extending southeastward to Greenland, there are large-scale changes in the intensity and character of sea ice transport in the Arctic basin. The significant changes include a weakening of the Beaufort gyre, an increase in sea ice export out of the Arctic basin through Fram Strait and the northern Barents Sea, and enhanced sea ice import from the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea into the Arctic basin. Consequently, more sea ice appears in the Greenland and the Barents Seas during the positive phase of the dipole anomaly. During the negative phase of the dipole anomaly, SLP anomalies show an opposite scenario in the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas when compared to the positive phase, with the center of negative SLP anomalies over the Nordic seas. Correspondingly, sea ice exports decrease from the Arctic basin flowing into the Nordic seas and the northern Barents Sea because of the strengthened Beaufort gyre. The finding indicates that influences of the dipole anomaly on winter sea ice motion are greater than that of the winter AO, particularly in the central Arctic basin and northward to Fram Strait, implying that effects of the dipole anomaly on sea ice export out of the Arctic basin become robust. The dipole anomaly is closely related to atmosphere–ice–ocean interactions that influence the Barents Sea sector.

Anomalies of Sea-ice transports in the Arctic

AbstractIn the Arctic, Sea-ice motion and ice export are prominent processes and good indicators of Arctic climate System variability. Sea-ice drift is Simulated using a dynamic–thermodynamic Sea-ice model, validated with retrievals from SsM/I Satellite observations. Both datasets agree well in reproducing the main Arctic drift patterns. In order to Study inner Arctic transports and ice volume anomalies, the Arctic Ocean is Split by ten boundaries, Separating the central Arctic Ocean from the Nordic and marginal Seas. It is found that the already dominant Sea-ice export through Fram Strait has increased at the expense of export through the Barents Sea in the most recent years investigated. Furthermore, ice export from the Eurasian marginal Seas increased Slightly, followed by greater ice production during the winter. In contrast to this, the Sea-ice volume moved within the Beaufort Gyre distinctly decreased. In total, the ice volume in the central Arctic decreased during the 40 year period covered by this Study. The changes in the ice volume correspond to two wind-driven circulation regimes of the Arctic Sea-ice motion, which recur approximately every 11 years. For the volume anomalies we derived a correlation of –0.59 to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, lagging the NAO by 2 years.

A case Study of old-ice import and export through Peary and Sverdrup Channels in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: 1998–2005

AbstractThis case Study attempts to quantify the amount and timing of the import, export and through-flow of old ice in the Peary Channel–sverdrup Channel area of the northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago during the period 1998–2005. The Study combines quantitative weekly area-averaged ice coverage evaluations from the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) Digital Archive with detailed analysis of Radarsat imagery and ice-motion results from the CIS ice-motion algorithm. The results Show that in 1998 more than 70% of the old ice in Peary–sverdrup was lost, half by melt and export to the South and the other half by export north into the Arctic Ocean, and that no Arctic Ocean old ice was imported into Peary–sverdrup. A net import of 10% old ice was Seen in 1999, with Some indication of through-flow into Southern channels. In 2000, no net import of old ice occurred in Peary–sverdrup, but there was Significant through-flow, with evidence of old ice reaching the Northwest Passage by November. Full recovery of the old-ice regime was complete by the end of 2001. More than two-thirds of the recovery was due to the in Situ formation of Second-year ice. Conditions in the following 3 years were near normal.

Comparison of the Sea-ice thickness distribution in the Lincoln Sea and adjacent Arctic Ocean in 2004 and 2005

AbstractResults of helicopter-borne electromagnetic measurements of total (ice plus Snow) Sea-ice thickness performed in May 2004 and 2005 in the Lincoln Sea and adjacent Arctic Ocean up to 86˚N are presented. Thickness distributions South of 84˚N are dominated by multi-year ice with modal thicknesses of 3.9 m in 2004 and 4.2 m in 2005 (mean thicknesses 4.67 and 5.18 m, respectively). Modal and mean Snow thickness on multi-year ice amounted to 0.18 and 0.30 m in 2004, and 0.28 and 0.35 m in 2005. There are also considerable amounts of 0.9–2.2m thick first-year ice (modal thickness), mostly representing ice formed in the recurring, refrozen Lincoln Polynya. Results are in good agreement with ground-based electromagnetic thickness measurements and with ice types demarcated in Satellite Synthetic aperture radar imagery. Four drifting buoys deployed in 2004 between 86˚N and 84.5˚N Show a Similar pattern of a mean Southward drift of the ice pack of 83 ±18km between May 2004 and April 2005, towards the coast of Ellesmere Island and Nares Strait. The resulting area decrease of 26% between the buoys and the coast is larger than the observed thickness increase South of 84˚ N. This points to the importance of Shear in a narrow band along the coast, and of ice export through Nares Strait in removing ice from the Study region.

Variability of Fram Strait sea ice export: causes, impacts and feedbacks in a coupled climate model

Analyses of a 500-year control integration of the global coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean model ECHAM5.0/MPI-OM show a high variability in the ice export through Fram Strait on interannual to decadal timescales. This variability is mainly determined by variations in the sea level pressure gradient across Fram Strait and thus geostrophic wind stress. Ice thickness anomalies, formed at the Siberian coast and in the Chukchi Sea, propagate across the Arctic to Fram Strait and contribute to the variability of the ice export on a timescale of about 9 years. Large anomalies of the ice export through Fram Strait cause fresh water signals, which reach the Labrador Sea after 1–2 years and lead to significant changes in the deep convection. The associated anomalies in ice cover and ocean heat release have a significant impact on air temperature in the Labrador Sea and on the large-scale atmospheric circulation. This affects the sea ice transport and distribution in the Arctic again. Sensitivity studies, simulating the effect of large ice exports through Fram Strait, show that the isolated effect of a prescribed ice/fresh water anomaly is very important for the climate variability in the Labrador Sea. Thus, the ice export through Fram Strait can be used for predictability of Labrador Sea climate up to 2 years in advance.

On large outflows of Arctic sea ice into the Barents Sea

Winter outflows of Arctic sea ice into the Barents Sea are estimated using a 10‐year record of satellite ice motion and thickness. The mean winter volume export through the Svalbard/Franz Josef Land passage is 40 km3, and ranges from −280 km3 to 340 km3. A large outflow in 2003 is preconditioned by an unusually high concentration of thick perennial ice over the Nansen Basin at the end of the 2002 summer. With a deep atmospheric low situated over the eastern Barents Sea in winter, the result is an increased export of Arctic ice. The Oct‐Mar ice area flux, at 110 × 103 km2, is not only unusual in magnitude but also remarkable in that >70% of the area is multiyear ice; the ice volume flux at ∼340 km3 is almost one‐fifth of the ice flux through the Fram Strait. Another large outflow of Arctic sea ice through this passage, comparable to that in 2003, is found in 1996. This southward flux of sea ice represents one of two major sources of freshwater in the Barents Sea; the other is the eastward flux of water via the Norwegian Coastal Current. The possible consequences of variable freshwater input on the Barents Sea hydrography and its impact on transformation of Atlantic Water en route to the Arctic Ocean are examined with a 25‐year coupled ice‐ocean model.

Arctic Ocean change heralds North Atlantic freshening

A large pool of freshwater formed of ice and runoff is hosted by the Arctic Ocean. It exits through the Canadian Archipelago and Fram Strait to enter the North Atlantic deep water production regions. Using a numerical model and observations we trace a strong freshwater release to subpolar waters in the mid‐1990s. In contrast to the ice export driven 1970's ‘Great Salinity Anomaly’ its source was a large additional liquid freshwater release from the Arctic Ocean. In fact it was a consequence of a change of the Arctic Ocean's thermohaline structure in response to the very intense North Atlantic Oscillation in the early 1990s. Our results show a strong link of large‐scale Arctic Ocean changes with the freshwater flux to subpolar waters.