Hypothetical Landscape Research Articles

A Model for Spatially Explicit Landscape Configuration and Ecosystem Service Performance, ESMAX: Model Description and Explanation

It is critical that we move our understanding of the ecosystem services (ESs) produced by landscapes from the present abundance of analysis to a fundamental basis of design. This involves enhancing the ability to understand and model the interconnected, coevolving system of humans and the rest of nature, thus contributing to the design of sustainable landscapes. In this paper, we hypothesise that the spatial configuration of landscape components (the size and arrangement of tree clumps, paddocks, crops, water features, etc.) impacts the production of regulating ESs, which in turn have a leveraging effect on provisioning and cultural ESs. Drawing on the precepts of Ecological Field Theory, we present the development and implications of a conceptual Geographic Information System (GIS)-based model, ESMAX, that utilises the idiosyncratic distance-decay characteristics of regulating ESs. These ‘ES fields’ are visualised as radiating into the landscape from their source components, addressing a gap in biophysical reality that has been identified as a shortcoming of existing ES modelling based on landcover proxies. Hypothetical landscape arrangements of simplified landscape components are tested with ESMAX across three regulating ESs: cooling effect, nitrogen retention, and habitat provision. The model calculates the overall ES performance of each landscape arrangement by tabulating the ES fields produced and, critically, the nonlinear response where fields overlap. The results indicate a primary sensitivity to the size of components and a secondary sensitivity to the arrangement of components. Consequently, ESMAX can be used to design landscape configurations that (1) maximise the production of specific regulating ESs and (2) improve the utilisation of natural ES-producing resources.

Functional landscape connectivity for a select few: Linkages do not consistently predict wildlife movement or occupancy

Landscape-level connectivity models developed in geographic information systems (GIS) produce hypothetical objects proposed to connect areas of habitat in fragmented landscapes, hereafter called “linkages”. Assuming they are used by organisms in nature, linkages could be an important tool for the maintenance of viable wildlife populations and biodiversity conservation. We evaluated five California linkage models (four statewide and one desert specific) for use by common California mammal, reptile and amphibian species in two ways using >180,000 wildlife detections over 20 years. If species are using linkages more often than surrounding areas, we expect to find evidence of their occurrence within linkages significantly more than outside linkages. First, we focused on wildlife-vehicle collision (WVC) data as a proxy for wildlife movement across landscapes and tested whether linkages were an important predictor for the presence of WVCs. Second, we used occupancy modeling with inferred non-detections to assess whether linkages were important predictors of species presence on the landscape. We found that the linkage areas were not consistent predictors of WVCs, with the exception of certain large-bodied mammals by individual models. Linkage areas were also not important predictors for the probability of landscape occupancy for most species. These results show that, lacking validation, hypothetical landscape linkages alone will not support functional connectivity for general biodiversity conservation. Therefore, caution should be exercised when using linkages in land and transportation-based conservation planning. In urban environments, modeled linkages may reflect the critical last places for wildlife to move and should be reserved. However, in mixed-use landscapes where wildlife may move more easily, connectivity as a gradient across the landscape should be the target of conservation, including in land-use and transportation planning.

A Computational Model for Determining Tiger Dispersal and Related Patterns in a Landscape Complex

Species dispersal from one territorial zone to another is a complex process. The reasons for species dispersal are determined by both natural and human factors. The purpose of this study is to develop a cost surface for a hypothetical landscape that accounts for various species dispersion features. With tigers (Panthera tigris tigris) as the focal species, a computational model for a landscape has been proposed to predict the dispersion patterns of the species’ individuals from one habitat patch to another. Knowing how tigers disperse is very crucial because it improves the likelihood of successful conservation. The likelihood is raised because it strengthens conservation efforts in the targeted regions identified by the proposed model and encourages landscape continuity for tiger dispersal. Initially, four major factors influencing tiger dispersal are explored. Following that, grids are overlaid over the tiger-carrying landscape map. Further, game theory assigns a score to each grid in the landscape matrix based on the landscape features in the focal landscape. Specific predefined ratings are also utilized for scenarios that are very complex and may change depending on variables, such as the interaction of the dispersing tiger with co-predators. The two scores mentioned above are combined to create a cost matrix that is shown across a landscape complex to estimate the impact of each landscape component on tiger dispersal. This approach helps wildlife managers develop conservation plans by recognizing important characteristics in the landscape. The results of the model described in this work might be beneficial for a wide range of wildlife management activities, such as corridor management, smart patrols, and so on. A cost surface over any focal landscape may serve as a basis for policy and purpose design based on current landscape conditions.

Towards quantifying microbial dispersal in the environment.

Towards quantifying microbial dispersal in the environment.

A simple and practical measure of the connectivity of protected area networks: TheProNetmetric

AbstractMeasuring connectivity is key to track progress toward broad conservation goals, such as the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity's proposed Post‐2020 Global Biodiversity Framework. The framework includes an area‐based target for the protection of 30% of lands and seas globally—through well‐connected systems of protected areas. Although the field of connectivity science has grown rapidly, limited progress has been made in tracking conservation connectivity in practice. This is in part due to the lack of a standardizing framework to clarify different purposes, approaches, and datasets—particularly in differentiating a metric from its application within a broader connectivity framework—as well as a benchmark to quantitatively compare alternative approaches. To address this science‐practice gap, we developed a novel metric of connectivity called the Protected Network metric (ProNet). ProNet is designed to assess the structural connectivity of a protected area network in a way that can be easily described, clearly communicated, and rapidly computed at high resolution. We evaluated how ProNet adheres to fundamental conservation science principles using a library of hypothetical landscapes, compared it to two commonly used existing connectivity metrics, and demonstrated its performance in assessing connectivity for a set of real‐world landscapes selected across the gradient of human modification. More broadly, ProNet is a powerful tool to galvanize emerging connectivity conservation as a countermeasure to increasing fragmentation of global ecosystems.

Is It Just the Location? Visibility Analyses of the West Pomeranian Megaliths of the Funnel Beaker Culture

Abstract The article attempts to apply visibility analyses to megalithic tombs of the Funnel Beaker Culture in the Pyrzyce Plain in north-western Poland. The analyses were carried out on 23 megalithic monuments in order to answer the questions whether the sites chosen by the builders of the Funnel Beaker Culture for the construction of their monumental megalithic tombs were optimal in terms of visibility and whether there is evidence that the megalithic cemeteries may have been constructed with the aim of establishing visual contact with each other and between settlements. Visibility analyses were carried out on a hypothetical landscape model that did not include flora such as forests, grasses or other obstacles in the terrain other than relief, in order to simulate an “open” landscape type. The estimation of parameters such as the visibility and discernibility of megalithic tombs proved that the builders of the Funnel Beaker Culture may indeed have chosen terrain-exposed sites for megaliths. However, other sites have been found that seem to be much more optimal in terms of visibility and terrain exposure than the present ones. Visibility analyses of megalithic cemeteries among themselves did not reveal significant “chains” of visual connections, even though they were located in exposed landscape areas. Investigations of the visual connections between megalithic cemeteries and known settlements of the Funnel Beaker Culture suggested possible visual contacts. The results of these analyses might suggest that a visual connection between cemeteries and settlements could be crucial for the megalithic builders, while it could be almost completely irrelevant between cemeteries.

A minimalist model for coevolving supply and drainage networks.

Numerous complex systems, both natural and artificial, are characterized by the presence of intertwined supply and/or drainage networks. Here, we present a minimalist model of such coevolving networks in a spatially continuous domain, where the obtained networks can be interpreted as a part of either the counter-flowing drainage or co-flowing supply and drainage mechanisms. The model consists of three coupled, nonlinear partial differential equations that describe spatial density patterns of input and output materials by modifying a mediating scalar field, on which supply and drainage networks are carved. In the two-dimensional case, the scalar field can be viewed as the elevation of a hypothetical landscape, of which supply and drainage networks are ridges and valleys, respectively. In the three-dimensional case, the scalar field serves the role of a chemical signal, according to which vascularization of the supply and drainage networks occurs above a critical ‘erosion’ strength. The steady-state solutions are presented as a function of non-dimensional channelization indices for both materials. The spatial patterns of the emerging networks are classified within the branched and congested extreme regimes, within which the resulting networks are characterized based on the absolute as well as the relative values of two non-dimensional indices.

Paleotectonic and paleogeographic history of the Arctic region

Paleogeographic maps represent the ultimate synthesis of complex and extensive geologic data and express pictorially the hypothetical landscape of some region during a given time-slice of deep geologic time. Such maps, presented as paired paleogeographic and paleotectonic reconstructions, have been developed to portray the geologic history of the greater Arctic region over the past 400 million years. Collectively they depict four major episodes in the development of the Arctic region. The first episode witnessed early and middle Paleozoic terrane assembly and accretion during the Caledonian and Ellesmerian orogenies, which brought together many pieces of the Arctic collage along the northern margin of Laurussia. During the second phase, the assembly of Pangea in the late Paleozoic joined Siberia to Laurussia, an entity that became Laurasia during the subsequent break-up of Pangea. Then, Mesozoic subduction and terrane accretion constructed the Cordilleran margin and opened the Canada Basin. Finally, Cenozoic North Atlantic sea-floor spreading fully opened the Arctic Ocean.

How Continuous Are the “Relict” Landscapes of Southeastern Tibet?

Pervasive low-relief, high-elevation surfaces separated by incised canyons are common across the Southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and have been used to define the nature of crustal deformation that drove plateau growth. A common assumption is that these surfaces were once part of a continuous low-relief paleotopography that has undergone surface uplift and dissection. Recent research, however, has questioned this assumption and the derived geodynamic models, which suggests that these surfaces formed in situ through drainage network reorganization and the piracy of upstream drainage area. Here, we test the continuity of the low-relief surfaces across SE Tibet using a new inversion scheme that also illuminates the nature of conflicting hypotheses. Our analysis is based on combining the local information contained in maps of normalized channel steepness with the more distributed and integrated information contained in maps of normalized landscape response time. This allows us to model the formation of a hypothetical landscape prior to rock uplift and dissection. We find that large variations in channel steepness are required along the trunk channels within the inferred paleotopography. This is inconsistent with a low-relief surface prior to surface uplift and indicates that a surface interpolated between remnants cannot be used to robustly measure geodynamic processes in space and time. Furthermore, our inverse framework highlights many different solutions to this ill-posed problem and thus provides an explanation as to why the topography alone cannot be used to provide a unique solution to the debate.

An effective accuracy assessment indicator for credible land use change modelling: Insights from hypothetical and real landscape analyses

Land use change (LUC) modelling has been widely used to inform landscape planning and adaptive management practices. The validation of LUC modelling results is critical for justifying the usability of LUC models. Along this line, global-level accuracy assessments with the kappa and error matrix approach are accepted as the common method for the validation of LUC models. However, high global-level accuracy does not always guarantee good model performance and high accuracy in characterizing the local LUC. It is necessary to develop indicators to exactly assess the accuracy of land use modelling in characterizing the detailed land use change. In this study, both hypothetical and real landscapes are used to analyze the differences between global-level and local accuracy assessments, and all possible simulation scenarios are considered in the hypothetical landscape by exhaustive methods. The results derived from the hypothetical landscape show that the local accuracy tends to increase with the increase in the proportion of the regional area showing land use transitions throughout the landscape. A real landscape simulation by the Dyna-CLUE model in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin (M-HRB) in China also showed a similar trend, where the land use transition from 2000 to 2015 accounted for approximately 10% of the total area. The simulation results showed high global-level accuracies of 97.17% (2010) and 85.01% (2015). The local accuracies for regions with little land use transition were 98.45% (2010) and 96.56% (2015), but the local accuracies for regions with significant land use transitions were only 0.99% and 6.08% in 2010 and 2015, respectively. According to the global-level accuracy, LUC simulations are reliable, but they do not correctly reflect the local changes in regions with significant land use transitions. Therefore, both global-level accuracy and local accuracy should be used to avoid possible misleading LUC modelling results. An effective simulation and accuracy assessment procedure was proposed in this study to increase the credibility of LUC modelling.

Changes in local climatic factors under different oasis-town configurations in an arid region: a case study of Hami Oasis

Investigating oasis effects of different oasis-town configurations is key to understanding the ecological stability of the oasis. However, previous studies have not considered the impacts of oasis–town configurations on oasis effects. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to conduct a series of 1-km-resolution simulations of the Hami Oasis, Xinjiang of China, to examine how different oasis–town configurations influenced the oasis effects. The actual landscape and four hypothetical landscapes were considered. Results indicated that the WRF model effectively reproduced the trends of the surface temperature, 2-m air temperature, 2-m relative humidity, and 10-m wind speed. It was also found that the effects of the town on the oasis were substantially greater when the former was located at the center of the oasis, rather than on the margin. At 850 hPa, the center of the temperature field was downstream from that of the wind field, whereas both coincided at lower levels. When the size of the town was doubled, the convergence center over the town weakened the strength of the divergent low-level winds from the oasis. This facilitated the infiltration of dry air from the surrounding desert into the oasis, which is detrimental to the healthy development of the oasis. Placing a town at the margin of the oasis is therefore advantageous to the development of the cold island, whereas a town at the center of the oasis is beneficial to the comfort of the residents.

Multi-objective planning model for urban greening based on optimization algorithms

Green space is fundamental to the quality of life of residents, and as such, urban planning or improvement projects often include strategies directly or indirectly related to greening. Although green space is well established to generate positive effects such as cooling, runoff reducing, and ecological corridor, a few studies have examined the comprehensive process of greening in the urban planning context. To fill this gap in the literature, this study seeks to identify a planning model that determines the location and type of greens based on its multiple effects (e.g., cooling and enhancement of connectivity) and calculates the implementation cost using meta-heuristic optimization algorithms. We obtained 30 Pareto-optimal plans by applying our model to the hypothetical landscape at a neighborhood scale. The results showed a synergistic relationship between cooling and enhancement of connectivity, as well as a trade-off relationship between greenery effects and implementation cost. We also defined critical lots for urban greening that are commonly selected in various plans. We expect our model to contribute to the improvement of existing planning processes by repeating the positive feedback loop: from plan modification to quantitative evaluation and selection of better plans. These optimal plans can also be considered as options for “co-design” by related stakeholders.

The Middle to Late Pleistocene herpetofaunal assemblages from the Jarama and Manzanares valleys (Madrid, central Spain): An ecological synthesis

The successive fossil amphibian and reptile assemblages from the Middle to Late Pleistocene sites from the Manzanares and Jarama River Valleys (Madrid, central Spain) permitted the reconstruction of part of the climate instability with high-amplitude and rapid shifts of the last 450 ka and their associated landscapes: Áridos-1 (MIS11b), Valdocarros II (MIS8a/7e), Estanque de Tormentas de Butarque ETB-H02 (MIS7d or MIS6), PRERESA (MIS7/6 or MIS5a) and HAT (MIS5a). This work aims to present a regional synthesis of the palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental data obtained from the herpetofaunal assemblages for these two valleys and their influence on the biodiversity during the Pleistocene. As a whole, these archaeo-paleontological localities document a total of 20 taxa (8 anurans and 12 reptiles) thus representing 76.9% of the modern authochtonous herpetofauna of the southeast of the Region of Madrid. Taking as a reference the modern situation in the area, the successive herpetofaunal assemblages permits a hypothetical landscape reconstruction where three different periods are represented with a glacial landscape (ETB-H02), a landscape of transition from cool to temperate climatic conditions (Valdocarros II), and an interglacial landscape (Áridos-1, HAT, PRERESA, and today). Environment is particularly open during dry periods, independently of if it is cold or warm. The main difference between an interglacial and a glacial period is the opposite representation of woodlands vs. moist environments: the last ones being more represented during cold periods than during warm periods. Finally, as documented by the succession from Valdocarros II, periods of transition between cold and warm climate are more forested but at the expense of humid meadows progressively. According to the relation between richness, biodiversity and climatic and environmental factors, a clear correlation appears between reptile richness and woodlands. In a similar way, mean annual precipitation (MAP) is revealed to be the most influent factor on reptile local diversity certainly because of its implications on vegetal cover extension and ecosystem productivity and resources. For amphibians the MAP does not influence dominancy but species richness: anuran richness being higher for lower MAP. Such an unusual pattern is certainly due to the fact that there are no strict forest-dweller anurans within the archaeological assemblages and that most of the anurans present in the sites are well adapted to arid conditions.

Fuel treatment planning: Fragmenting high fuel load areas while maintaining availability and connectivity of faunal habitat

• Extends medium-term fuel treatment scheduling to include wildlife considerations. • Reduces fuel load while simultaneously maintains habitat availability. • Maintains both extent of habitat and connectivity of habitat. • Shows that landscape connectivity constraints are more effective than neighbourhood constraints. Reducing the fuel load in fire-prone landscapes is aimed at mitigating the risk of catastrophic wildfires but there are ecological consequences. Maintaining habitat for fauna of both sufficient extent and connectivity while fragmenting areas of high fuel loads presents land managers with seemingly contrasting objectives. Faced with this dichotomy, we propose a Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) model that can optimally schedule fuel treatments to reduce fuel hazards by fragmenting high fuel load regions while considering critical ecological requirements over time and space. The model takes into account both the frequency of fire that vegetation can tolerate and the frequency of fire necessary for fire-dependent species. Our approach also ensures that suitable alternate habitat is available and accessible to fauna affected by a treated area. More importantly, to conserve fauna the model sets a minimum acceptable target for the connectivity of habitat at any time. These factors are all included in the formulation of a model that yields a multi-period spatially-explicit schedule for treatment planning. Our approach is then demonstrated in a series of computational experiments with hypothetical landscapes, a single vegetation type and a group of faunal species with the same habitat requirements. Our experiments show that it is possible to fragment areas of high fuel loads while ensuring sufficient connectivity of habitat over both space and time. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the habitat connectivity constraint is more effective than neighbourhood habitat constraints. This is critical for the conservation of fauna and of special concern for vulnerable or endangered species.

Buyouts and Agglomeration Bonuses in Wildlife Corridor Auctions

We present a general model of bidding behavior in wildlife corridor auctions. Given (i) some spatial configuration of landowners in a landscape, (ii) the landowners’ opportunity costs, and (iii) the value of establishing the corridor, our model predicts individual landowners’ bids, overall participation rates in the auction, as well as the expected net benefits to the conservation agency. We find that market efficiency of the auction increases in the number of potential corridors. We use simulations to compare a benchmark auction with two policy scenarios in a hypothetical landscape. In one scenario, members of a winning corridor receive an agglomeration bonus. In the other scenario, we buy out a pivotal landowner (one that is part of many potential corridors) prior to the auction. Given equal budgets for the agglomeration bonus and the buyout policy, an agglomeration bonus is less efficient than a buyout for conservation agencies facing low budgets, and vice versa. A risk-averse conservation agency is however always better off using a buyout policy.

Development of a threat index to manage timber production on flammable forest landscapes subject to spatial harvest constraints

ABSTRACTWe develop a stand-level fire threat index and incorporate it in a mixed integer programming model that can be used to help specify strategies that will maximize the expected volume harvested from a flammable forest over a finite planning horizon, subject to adjacency constraints. The inclusion of a threat index in our objective function implicitly identifies high volume harvest blocks that are most likely to burn over the planning horizon and accelerates the harvesting of those high risk stands to reduce the likelihood that they will burn before they are harvested. We illustrate the use of our model and evaluate its performance by simulating its application to two hypothetical flammable forest landscapes that are 16,000 hectares in size. Our results indicate that our inclusion of a threat index in our objective function produces timber harvest schedules that are better than those produced using an objective function that does not include potential fire loss measures, while satisfying harvest adjacency constraints.

A Geosimulation Approach for Data Scarce Environments: Modeling Dynamics of Forest Insect Infestation across Different Landscapes

Insect infestation behaves as a complex system, characterized by non-linear spatial dynamics and emergent patterns that evolve from smaller to larger spatial scales. The emerald ash borer (EAB) is an invasive species that has infested and killed millions of ash trees across North America. Existing EAB models use traditional statistical approaches that often cannot address the spatiotemporal complexity emerging from EAB infestation processes. Moreover, these studies of insect infestation are limited by a lack of sufficient time series data. The objective of this study is to develop a geosimulation approach to overcome the challenge of data scarcity and represent EAB infestation at a regional scale. Geographic information systems (GIS), multi-criteria evaluation (MCE), and cellular automata (CA) are used to model EAB spread across different hypothetical landscape types. Simulation results represent EAB propagation and indicate different dynamics of spread for each landscape. Urban environments are identified as being at the greatest risk to the infestation. The proposed approach offers a theoretical framework and a modeling tool to represent the propagation of EAB infestation that can be applied with real geospatial datasets and potentially used in forest management strategies.

Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the Annual Cycle: Linking Policy Alternatives, Landowner Decisions, and Biological Population Outcomes

Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

Modeling pollinating bee visitation rates in heterogeneous landscapes from foraging theory

Pollination by bees is important for food production. Recent concerns about the declines of both domestic and wild bees, calls for measures to promote wild pollinator populations in farmland. However, to be able to efficiently promote and prioritize between measures that benefit pollinators, such as modified land use, agri-environment schemes, or specific conservation measures, it is important to have a tool that accurately predicts how bees use landscapes and respond to such measures. In this paper we compare an existing model for predicting pollination (the “Lonsdorf model”), with an extension of a general model for habitat use of central place foragers (the “CPF model”). The Lonsdorf model has been shown to perform relatively well in simple landscapes, but not in complex landscapes. We hypothesized that this was because it lacks a behavioral component, assuming instead that bees in essence diffuse out from the nest into the landscape. By adding a behavioral component, the CPF model in contrast assumes that bees only use those parts of the landscape that enhances their fitness, completely avoiding foraging in other parts of the landscape. Because foraging is directed toward the most rewarding foraging habitat patches as determined by quality and distance, foraging habitat will include a wide range of forage qualities close to the nest, but a much narrower range farther away. We generate predictions for both simple and complex hypothetical landscapes, to illustrate the effect of including the behavioral rule, and for real landscapes. In the real landscapes the models give similar predictions for visitation rates in simple landscapes, but more different predictions in heterogeneous landscapes. We also analyze the consequences of introducing hedgerows near a mass-flowering crop field under each model. The Lonsdorf model predicts that any habitat improvement will enhance pollination of the crop. In contrast, the CPF model predicts that the hedgerow must provide good nesting sites, and not just foraging opportunities, for it to benefit pollination of the crop, because good forage quality alone may drain bees away from the field. Our model can be used to optimize pollinator mitigation measures in real landscapes.

Cellulosic ethanol production: Landscape scale net carbon strongly affected by forest decision making

In producing cellulosic ethanol as a renewable biofuel from forest biomass, a tradeoff exists between the displacement of fossil fuel carbon (C) emissions by biofuels and the high rates of C storage in aggrading forest stands. To assess this tradeoff, the landscape area affected by feedstock harvest must be considered, which depends on numerous factors including forest productivity, the amount of forest in a fragmented landscape, and the willingness of forest landowners to sell timber as a bioenergy feedstock. We studied landscape scale net C balance by combining these considerations in a new, basic simulation model, CEBRAM, and applying it to a hypothetical landscape of short-rotation aspen forests in northern Michigan, USA. The model was parameterized for forest species, growth and ecosystem C storage, as well as landscape spatial patterns of forest cover in this region. To understand and parameterize forest owner decision making we surveyed 505 nonindustrial private forest (NIPF) owners in Michigan. Survey results indicated that 47% of these NIPF owners would willingly harvest forest biomass for bioenergy. Model results showed that at this rate the net C balance was 0.024 kg/m2 for a cellulosic ethanol system without considering land use over a 40 year time horizon. When C storage in aggrading, nonparticipating NIPF land was included, net C balance was 1.09 kg/m2 over 40 years. In this region, greater overall C gains can be realized through aspen forest aggradation than through the displacement of gasoline by cellulosic ethanol produced from forest biomass.