Hydrometeorological Time Series Research Articles

Complexity of hydrometeorological variables: false nearest neighbour algorithm

ABSTRACT This study examines the complexity of hydrometeorological variables in the Savitri River basin in India. Specifically, the study estimates the dimensionality of daily rainfall, runoff, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, pan evaporation, relative humidity, sunshine duration, and wind speed observed during 2000–2010 at two stations (Kangule and Birwadi). The false nearest neighbour (FNN) algorithm is employed to estimate the dimensionality of each variable. The dimensionality represents the number of variables dominantly governing the system. The FNN dimension values of the eight daily hydrometeorological time series from each station range between 4 and 7, which may be considered as exhibiting a medium level of complexity. Among the eight series, wind speed is found to be the least complex, whereas minimum temperature and sunshine duration are the most complex. An attempt is also made to examine the effect of temporal scale on the complexity of the hydrometeorological variables, by analysing the hourly rainfall and runoff series from the two stations. The results indicate that, for both rainfall and runoff, hourly data (finer scale) exhibits greater complexity, with two to three additional influential variables. The present results have important implications for hydrometeorological modelling, prediction, and disaster management in the small and flood-prone Savitri River basin.

Wastewater discharges and urban land cover dominate urban hydrology signals across England and Wales

Urbanisation is an important driver of changes in streamflow. These changes are not uniform across catchments due to the diverse nature of water sources, storage, and pathways in urban river systems. While land cover data are typically used in urban hydrology analyses, other characteristics of urban systems (such as water management practices) are poorly quantified which means that urbanisation impacts on streamflow are often difficult to detect and quantify. Here, we assess urban impacts on streamflow dynamics for 711 catchments across England and Wales. We use the CAMELS-GB dataset, which is a large-sample hydrology dataset containing hydro-meteorological timeseries and catchment attributes characterising climate, geology, water management practices and land cover. We quantify urban impacts on a wide range of streamflow dynamics (flow magnitudes, variability, frequency, and duration) using random forest models. We demonstrate that wastewater discharges from sewage treatment plants and urban land cover dominate urban hydrology signals across England and Wales. Wastewater discharges increase low flows and reduce flashiness in urban catchments. In contrast, urban land cover increases flashiness and frequency of medium and high flow events. We highlight the need to move beyond land cover metrics and include other features of urban river systems in hydrological analyses to quantify current and future drivers of urban streamflow.

BULL Database – Spanish Basin attributes for Unravelling Learning in Large-sample hydrology

We present a novel basin dataset for large-sample hydrological studies in Spain. BULL comprises data for 484 basins, combining hydrometeorological time series with several attributes related to geology, soil, topography, land cover, anthropogenic influence and hydroclimatology. Thus, we followed recommendations in the CARAVAN initiative for generating a truly open global hydrological dataset to collect these attributes. Several climatological data sources were used, and their data were validated by hydrological modelling. One of the main novelties of BULL compared to other national-scale datasets is the analysis of the hydrological alteration of the basins included in this dataset. This aspect is critical in countries such as Spain, which are characterised by rivers suffering from the highest levels of anthropisation. The BULL dataset is freely available at https://zenodo.org/records/10605646.

Standardized Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis for Climate Change Assessment (S-IPTA)

Research and applications on trend analysis have recently been on the agenda and are top priorities in many disciplines due to the effects of climate change. After a thorough evaluation of the literature, it is noted that different hydro-meteorological variables, such as precipitation, temperature, etc., are studied and analyzed individually. This research proposes a new innovative polygon trend analysis application (S-IPTA) using the standardization concept to fill this gap in classical trend applications and comprehensively compare the trends of different variables to temporal and spatial patterns. Firstly, using statistical standardization, S-IPTA adjusts the original data sets and makes them dimensionless. Then, the innovative trend analyses are conducted and interpreted on one single graph (S-IPTA). The S-IPTA methodology is applied to monthly precipitation and temperature time series of Konya Basin in Türkiye at ten meteorological stations between 1959 and 2022. For precipitation, the S-IPTA did not exhibit a consistent polygon across all stations within the study area, while the temperature polygon was more regular, indicating that the temperature mean was generally stable with a positive trend. Also, S-IPTA shows the difference between the average value for each month and the newly proposed long-term average value (0). S-IPTA also provides a basis for a better interpretation of climate change and its effects by providing a common denominator for various trend characteristics, such as trend magnitudes and trend transitions in different hydro-meteorological time series.

Generation of Hydrometeorological Time Series Data to Assess the Variability of Water Balance Elements

Generation of Hydrometeorological Time Series Data to Assess the Variability of Water Balance Elements

Simbi: historical hydro-meteorological time series and signatures for 24 catchments in Haiti

Abstract. Haiti, a Caribbean country, is highly vulnerable to hydroclimatic hazards due to heavy rainfall, which is partly linked to tropical cyclones. Additionally, its steep slopes generate flash floods, particularly in small catchments. Moreover, the hydrology of this region remains poorly understood and understudied. Unfortunately, there is no accessible database for the scientific community to use in this country. To fill this gap, hydroclimatic data were collected to create the first historical database in Haiti. This database, called Simbi (guardian of rivers, freshwater, and rain in Haitian mythology), includes 156 monthly rainfall series over the period 1905–2005, 59 daily rainfall series over the period 1920–1940, 70 daily streamflow series, and 23 monthly temperature series, not necessarily continuous, over the period 1920–1940. It also provides simulated streamflow series over the period 1920–1940 using the GR2M and GR4J rainfall–runoff models for 24 catchments and 49 attributes covering a wide range of topographic, climatic, geological, land use, hydrogeological, and hydrological signature indices. Simbi is the first open-access hydro-meteorological dataset for Haiti and will contribute to a better knowledge of hydrological risk in Haiti. Several sources of uncertainty associated with Simbi are acknowledged, including data quality (historical data), digitisation of paper archives, identification of relevant rain gauges, and rainfall–runoff models. It is important to consider these uncertainties when using Simbi. The database will be regularly updated to include additional historical data that will be digitised in the future. It will thus contribute toward better knowledge of the hydrology of Haitian catchments and will enable the implementation of various hydrological calculations useful for designing structures or flow forecasting. Simbi is an open-access database and is available for download at https://doi.org/10.23708/02POK6 (Bathelemy et al., 2023).

Impact of anthropogenic changes and rainfall variability on river discharge in tropical Central Africa

Abstract The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of rainfall variability and anthropogenic changes on river discharge in the Benoue and the Logone river basins over the last seven decades (1950–2018). To achieve this goal, hydrometeorological data from these basins were analyzed using the Pettitt and Mann–Kendall tests. Our results show that negative rupture was observed in the hydrometeorological time series of these basins at the annual time step in 1970–1971. The deficits associated with this rupture are estimated at −7% for rainfall and −28% for river flows. The wet season shows similar developments. However, from the 1990s onward, there has been a significant increase in the mean annual flows of the Benoue River, which coincides with that of the rainfall during the same decade. This increase over the recent decades could also be expected in response to an increase in impervious surface area in the catchment area, which could compensate for the deficit generated by the post-1990s rainfall deficit through an increase in runoff. Since the filling of the Lagdo Dam in 1983, an increase in all ranges of minimum flow, as well as an increase in the variability of extreme flows, has been detected.

PatagoniaMet: A multi-source hydrometeorological dataset for Western Patagonia

Western Patagonia (40–56°S) is a clear example of how the systematic lack of publicly available data and poor quality control protocols have hindered further hydrometeorological studies. To address these limitations, we present PatagoniaMet (PMET), a compilation of ground-based hydrometeorological data (PMET-obs; 1950–2020), and a daily gridded product of precipitation and temperature (PMET-sim; 1980–2020). PMET-obs was developed considering a 4-step quality control process applied to 523 hydrometeorological time series obtained from eight institutions in Chile and Argentina. Following current guidelines for hydrological datasets, several climatic and geographic attributes were derived for each catchment. PMET-sim was developed using statistical bias correction procedures, spatial regression models and hydrological methods, and was compared against other bias-corrected alternatives using hydrological modelling. PMET-sim was able to achieve Kling-Gupta efficiencies greater than 0.7 in 72% of the catchments, while other alternatives exceeded this threshold in only 50% of the catchments. PatagoniaMet represents an important milestone in the availability of hydro-meteorological data that will facilitate new studies in one of the largest freshwater ecosystems in the world.

CAMELS-CH: hydro-meteorological time series and landscape attributes for 331 catchments in hydrologic Switzerland

Abstract. We present CAMELS-CH (Catchment Attributes and MEteorology for Large-sample Studies – Switzerland), a large-sample hydro-meteorological data set for hydrologic Switzerland in central Europe. This domain covers 331 basins within Switzerland and neighboring countries. About one-third of the catchments are located in Austria, France, Germany and Italy. As an Alpine country, Switzerland covers a vast diversity of landscapes, including mountainous environments, karstic regions, and several strongly cultivated regions, along with a wide range of hydrological regimes, i.e., catchments that are glacier-, snow- or rain dominated. Similar to existing data sets, CAMELS-CH comprises dynamic hydro-meteorological variables and static catchment attributes. CAMELS-CH (Höge et al., 2023; available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7784632) encompasses 40 years of data between 1 January 1981 and 31 December 2020, including daily time series of stream flow and water levels, and of meteorological data such as precipitation and air temperature. It also includes daily snow water equivalent data for each catchment starting from 2 September 1998. Additionally, we provide annual time series of land cover change and glacier evolution per catchment. The static catchment attributes cover location and topography, climate, hydrology, soil, hydrogeology, geology, land use, human impact and glaciers. This Swiss data set complements comparable publicly accessible data sets, providing data from the “water tower of Europe”.

Long-term Hydrometeorological Time-series Analysis over the Central Highland of West Papua

This article presents an innovative data-driven approach for examining long-term temporal rainfall patterns in the central highlands of West Papua, Indonesia. We utilized wavelet transforms to identify signs of a negative temporal correlation between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-12). Based on this cause-and-effect relationship, we employed dynamic causality modeling using the Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous input (NARX) model to predict SPI-12. The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) was used as an attribute variable in this predictive framework. Consequently, this dynamic neural network model effectively captured common patterns within the SPI-12 time series. The implications of this study are significant for advancing data-driven precipitation models in regions characterized by intricate topography within the Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC).

Large-scale atmospheric teleconnections and spatiotemporal variability of extreme rainfall indices across India

Identifying trends in hydrometeorological time series during extreme weather events and their interactions with large-scale atmospheric teleconnections is crucial for climate change research. This study evaluates 14 precipitation-based indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) across seven climatic zones of India using gridded daily rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for 120 years (1902–2021) utilised. Trend analysis was carried out using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Theil-slope Sen's estimator, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), and other statistical tools. Change point detection is established using the Pettitte test and Cumulative Sum algorithm. The relationships between large-scale atmospheric teleconnections and ETCCDI indices are also found, and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) models are developed between them.The results show significant increasing trends in extreme rainfall indices in India's Ladakh region, located in the arid desert-cold climatic zone. The annual, Southwest Monsoon (SW-Monsoon), Northeast Monsoon (NE-Monsoon), and summer rainfall trends were positive, while winter rainfall had a negative trend across most climatic zones. Significant associations between large-scale atmospheric teleconnections, including Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), SST of Niño 3.4 region, Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), and Dipole Mode Index (IOD) and ETCCDI indices were established across multiple climatic zones. Using MLR analysis, this study attempts to establish, for the first time, the relationship between teleconnections and ETCCDI indices across India. Extreme rainfall indices are influenced by climate change during the SW-Monsoon across most of the climatic zones of India. During the previous El Niño event (2014–2016), average annual rainfall decreased by 19.5%, SW-Monsoon rainfall decreased by 25.2%, and NE-Monsoon rainfall decreased by 64.1% in India. The findings may provide valuable insights into mitigation strategies to sustain the adverse effects of extreme weather conditions and enhance climate resilience.

Geospatial dataset for hydrologic analyses in India (GHI): a quality-controlled dataset on river gauges, catchment boundaries and hydrometeorological time series

Abstract. Streamflow gauging stations not only track the pulse of rivers but also act as common reference points for hydrologic and other environmental analyses. As such, streamflow data and metadata on gauging stations – Geographic Information System (GIS) data on station locations, their upstream catchment boundaries and river flow networks – are critical for analyses. However, for India's river basins, the availability of such data is limited; when available, data are not in an analysis-ready format and can have substantial errors. Studies often use available information from India's water agencies as is, without checking its validity. This study addresses the above limitations by building a new dataset using existing metadata (from the Central Water Commission, CWC, and the Water Resources Information System, WRIS) and checking it against publicly available information from global data sources (e.g., World Wildlife Fund, Multi-Error-Removed Improved-Terrain Hydro and Copernicus) and online maps (e.g., Google Maps). The quality control process categorizes existing metadata based on their consistency with these sources; also, existing metadata are supplemented with additional information where needed. The new dataset developed here is called the “Geospatial dataset for Hydrologic analyses in India” (GHI) and uses Hydrological data and maps based on Shuttle Elevation Derivatives at multiple Scales (HydroSHEDS) data as the underlying template. GHI has both geospatial and time series information. In this initial version of GHI, the spatial domain includes only the river basins of Peninsular India where daily streamflow data are publicly available. Following the quality control process, the CWC's 645 stations in Peninsular India were categorized into three groups: Group 1 (reliable metadata and adequate daily streamflow data; 213 stations), Group 2 (reliable metadata and inadequate or no daily streamflow data; 259 stations) and Group 3 (missing or unreliable metadata; 173 stations). For each of the 472 stations falling into groups 1 and 2, catchment-specific annual and monthly time series spanning 71 water years (1950–2020) of the following were compiled: observed precipitation from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD); observed streamflow from WRIS; estimated precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow from ERA5-Land; and ET from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM). A preliminary analysis of catchment-scale time series of data indicates that, while the compiled data appear reasonable over most of the study domain, spurious runoff–precipitation ratios were observed in the hilly coastal regions of Western India. This adds to yet another data-related obstacle faced by the hydrologic community. In order to quantify historical changes and reconcile them with anticipated future changes, the community needs robust and reliable hydrographic and hydrometeorological datasets as well as unrestricted access to such datasets. The goal of this study is to highlight the limitations of existing datasets and pave the way for a community-led effort towards building the needed datasets. GHI serves as a placeholder until such datasets become available. Potential improvements to GHI are discussed. GHI is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7563599 (Goteti, 2023).

Least-Squares Triple Cross-Wavelet and Multivariate Regression Analyses of Climate and River Flow in the Athabasca River Basin

Abstract River flow monitoring is a critical task for land management, agriculture, fishery, industry, and other concerns. Herein, a robust least squares triple cross-wavelet analysis is proposed to investigate possible relationships between river flow, temperature, and precipitation in the time–frequency domain. The Athabasca River basin (ARB) in Canada is selected as a case study to investigate such relationships. The historical climate and river flow datasets since 1950 for three homogeneous subregions of the ARB were analyzed using a traditional multivariate regression model and the proposed wavelet analysis. The highest Pearson correlation (0.87) was estimated between all the monthly averaged river flow, temperature, and accumulated precipitation for the subregion between Hinton and Athabasca. The highest and lowest correlations between climate and river flow were found to be during the open warm season and cold season, respectively. Particularly, the highest correlations between temperature, precipitation, and river flow were in May (0.78) for Hinton, July (0.54) for Athabasca, and September (0.44) for Fort McMurray. The new wavelet analysis revealed significant coherency between annual cycles of climate and river flow for the three subregions, with the highest of 33.7% for Fort McMurray and the lowest of 4.7% for Hinton with more coherency since 1991. The phase delay analysis showed that annual and semiannual cycles of precipitation generally led the ones in river flow by a few weeks mainly for the upper and middle ARB since 1991. The climate and river flow anomalies were also demonstrated using the baseline period 1961–90, showing a significant increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation since 1991 for all the three subregions. Unlike the multivariate regression, the proposed wavelet method can analyze any hydrometeorological time series in the time–frequency domain without any need for resampling, interpolation, or gap filling.

Long-Term Prediction of Hydrometeorological Time Series Using a PSO-Based Combined Model Composed of EEMD and LSTM

The accurate long-term forecasting of hydrometeorological time series is crucial for ensuring the sustainability of water resources, environmental conservation, and other related fields. However, hydrometeorological time series usually have strong nonlinearity, non-stationarity, and complexity. Therefore, it is extremely challenging to make long-term forecasts of hydrometeorological series. Deep learning has been widely applied in time series prediction across various fields and exhibits exceptional performance. Among the many deep learning techniques, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks possess robust long-term predictive capabilities for time series analysis. Signal decomposition technology is utilized to break down the time series into multiple low complexity and highly stationary sub-sequences, which are then individually trained using LSTM before being reconstructed to generate accurate predictions. This approach has significantly advanced the field of time series prediction. Therefore, we propose an EEMD-LSTM-PSO model, which employs Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), to decompose the hydrometeorological time series and subsequently construct an LSTM model for each component. Furthermore, the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is utilized to optimize the coefficients and reconstruct the final prediction outcomes. The performance of the EEMD-LSTM-PSO model is evaluated by comparing it with four other models using four evaluation indicators: root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), correlation coefficient (R), and Nash coefficient (NSE) on three real hydrometeorological time series. The experimental results show that the proposed model exhibits exceptional performance compared with the other four models, and effectively predicts long-term hydrometeorological time series.

COMPARISON OF INNOVATIVE TREND ANALYSIS METHODS FOR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS IN THE KARASU SUB-BASIN

Türkiye, which has a complex climate structure, is shown among the countries that will be most affected by climate change with the effect of global warming. These effects will differ in different regions due to their topographic structure, location, and orographic characteristics. Trend analyzes are used to determine the direction and magnitude of this variability. In this study, trend analysis was carried out by using hydrometeorological data obtained from streamflow and meteorology stations located in the Karasu Sub-Basin located in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Three innovative trend methods, namely the Şen-Innovative Trend Analysis, Onyutha Trend Test, Combination of Wilcoxon Test and Scatter Diagram trend tests, were used together with the classical Mann-Kendall method in the monthly scale analysis of hydrometeorological data of the 1979-2020 period. Both graphical and statistical trend analysis can be done with innovative methods. The results obtained in the study, in which trend analyses were evaluated at the α=0.05 significance level, reveal significant and insignificant decreasing trends in the parameters of mean streamflow, maximum precipitation, total precipitation, mean and minimum relative humidity. Significant and insignificant increasing trends were determined in the maximum, minimum, and mean temperature, maximum relative humidity, and mean wind speed data. The trends obtained in the methods used in general are consistent with each other. The findings of this study could lead to a better knowledge of the region's hydrology and contribute sustainable water management. The trend analysis methods used in the study are thought to be quite helpful in the analysis of hydro-meteorological time series.

Res-CN (Reservoir dataset in China): hydrometeorological time series and landscape attributes across 3254 Chinese reservoirs

Abstract. Dams and reservoirs are human-made infrastructures that have attracted increasing attention because of their societal and environmental significance. Towards better management and conservation of reservoirs, a dataset of reservoir-catchment characteristics is needed, considering that the amount of water and material flowing into and out of reservoirs depends on their locations on the river network and the properties of the upstream catchment. To date, no dataset exists for reservoir-catchment characteristics. The aim of this study is to develop the first database featuring reservoir-catchment characteristics for 3254 reservoirs with storage capacity totaling 682 595 km3 (73.2 % of reservoir water storage capacity in China) to support the management and conservation of reservoirs in the context of catchment level. To ensure a more representative and accurate mapping of local variables of large reservoirs, reservoir catchments are delineated into full catchments (their full upstream contributing areas) and intermediate catchments (subtracting the area contributed by upstream reservoirs from the full upstream part of the current reservoir). Using both full catchments and intermediate catchments, characteristics of reservoir catchments were extracted, with a total of 512 attributes in six categories (i.e., reservoir and catchment body characteristics, topography, climate, soil and geology, land cover and use, and anthropogenic activity characteristics). Besides these static attributes, time series of 15 meteorological variables of catchments were extracted to support hydrological simulations for a better understanding of drivers of reservoir environment change. Moreover, we provide a comprehensive and extensive reservoir dataset on water level (data available for 20 % of 3254 reservoirs), water surface area (99 %), storage anomaly (92 %), and evaporation (98 %) from multisource satellites such as radar and laser altimeters and images from Landsat and Sentinel satellites. These products significantly enhance spatial and temporal coverage in comparison to existing similar products (e.g., 67 % increase in spatial resolution of water level and 225 % increase in storage anomaly) and contribute to our understanding of reservoir properties and functions within the Earth system by incorporated national or global hydrological modeling. In situ data of 138 reservoirs are employed in this study as a valuable reference for evaluation, thus enhancing our confidence in the data quality and enhancing our understanding of the accuracy of current satellite datasets. Along with its extensive attributes, the Reservoir dataset in China (Res-CN) can support a broad range of applications such as water resources, hydrologic/hydrodynamic modeling, and energy planning. Res-CN is on Zenodo through https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7664489 (Shen et al., 2022c).

Assessment of Variability in Hydrological Droughts Using the Improved Innovative Trend Analysis Method

The use of hydro-climatological time series to identify patterns is essential for comprehending climate change and extreme events such as drought. Hence, in this study, hydrological drought variability based on the standard drought index (SDI) using DrinC was investigated at ten (10) hydrological stations in the Upper Indus River Basin (UIRB) of Pakistan on a monthly timescale for a period of 1961–2018. Moreover, the applicability of the improved innovative trend analysis by Sen Slope method (referred hereafter as the IITA) method was evaluated in comparison with innovative trend analysis (ITA) and Mann–Kendall (MK). The findings demonstrated a significant decreasing trend in the hydrological drought from October to March; on the other hand, from April through September, a significant increasing trend was observed. In addition to that, the consistency of the outcomes across the three trend analysis methods was also observed in most of the cases, with some discrepancies in trend direction, such as at Kharmong station. Conclusively, consistency of results in all three trend analysis methods showed that the IITA method is reliable and effective due to its capability to investigate the trends in low, median, and high values of hydrometeorological timeseries with graphical representation. A degree-day or energy-based model can be used to extend the temporal range and link the effects of hydrological droughts to temperature, precipitation, and snow cover on a sub-basin scale.

A novel global solar exposure forecasting model based on air temperature: Designing a new multi-processing ensemble deep learning paradigm

The total quantity of solar energy falling on a horizontal plane surface is the global solar exposure (GSE, i.e., total solar energy). Precise forecasting of GSE is important in many fields such as renewable energy, agriculture, and public health, particularly by the limited hydro-meteorological time series information. This research aims to develop an advanced multi-processing deep learning (DL) paradigm to forecast weekly GSE based on maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) air temperatures as the drivers at Brisbane and Perth airport stations in eastern and western Australia during 2000 to 2022. The proposed model was comprised of an extra tree feature selection (FS) integrated with two novel decomposition techniques, namely time-varying filtering-based empirical mode decomposition (TVF-EMD), and empirical wavelet transform (EWT), and a powerful ensemble deep random vector functional link (ED-RVFL) approach. To validate the main model, the RVFL, bidirectional long-short term memory (Bi-LSTM), and bagged regression tree (Bagging) machine learning (ML) models were examined in hybrid and standalone counterpart frameworks. First, the extra-tree FS determined the significant lags of the predictors based on an importance benchmark criterion. Then, by applying the optimal gained lags to the feeding models, all of the original predictors were decomposed using TVF-EMD and EWT univariate feature extraction. The final forecast was computed by aggregating all the individual forecasts of the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and residual components. In addition, eight statistical indicators (including coefficient of correlation: R, root mean square error: RMSE, Kling-Gupta efficiency: KGE, index of agreement: IA, uncertainty coefficient with 95% confidence level: U95%, mean absolute percent error: MAPE, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency: NSE, and mean absolute error: MAE) and several graphical methods were utilized to evaluate the performances of the models. The modeling results indicated that the ED-RVFL-TVF-EMD (R = 0.9665, RMSE = 1.9193 MJ/m2, and KGE = 0.9565 for the Perth airport station) and ED-RVFL-EWT (R = 0.9218, RMSE = 1.9708 MJ/m2, and KGE = 0.8552 for the Brisbane station) outperformed all other models, followed by RVFL, Bi-LSTM, and Bagging in a hybrid format. With the high predictive robustness, both decomposition-based frameworks can be useful for solving energy forecasting problems. The new modeling approach developed in this study can provide more precise forecasts for decision-makers to better address climate change, agriculture, and energy crises.

Impact of climate and anthropogenic changes on current and future variability in flows in the Nyong River Basin (equatorial Central Africa)

Abstract Due to climate and environmental changes, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has experienced several drought and flood events in recent decades with serious consequences on the economy of the sub-region. In this context, the region needs to enhance its capacity in water resources management, based on both good knowledge of contemporary variations in river flows and reliable forecasts. The objective of this article was to study the evolution of current and future flows in the Nyong River Basin (NRB) in Cameroon. To achieve this, the Pettitt and modified Mann–Kendall tests were used to analyze the hydrometeorological time series in the basin. The SWAT model was used to simulate the future flows in the NRB. During the 1970s, the Nyong basin experienced a joint decrease in rainfall and flow. Despite a general decrease in future precipitation, a significant increase in runoff is expected in this basin, regardless of the period (2022–2060 or 2061–2100), the model (RCA4 or CCCma) and the scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 or RCP8.5). This increase in flow will be the result of the increase in impervious areas to the detriment of forest in the basin, which will compensate for the drop in precipitation with an increase in runoff.

Quality assessment of hydrometeorological observational data and their influence on hydrological model results in Alpine catchments

ABSTRACT Hydrometeorological observational data can be affected by trends, change points and inhomogeneities. It is often difficult to identify the cause of these statistical properties of the time series and therefore they represent a source of uncertainty that can propagate to the hydrological model results. We examine two case studies of high-elevation Alpine catchments for which 59 hydrometeorological time series are analysed to show how often trends, change points and inhomogeneities in the time series occur. We consider daily and monthly aggregated data, as well as a set of nine homogeneity tests, six trend tests and three change-point tests. The results show that inhomogeneities in meteorological time series have a stronger and more direct influence on the cryosphere (snow and glacier processes) than on runoff generation. The non-linear behaviour of hydrological processes greatly complicates the judgement about the consequences of including or excluding suspicious time series in hydrological model set-ups.