Hydrological Drivers Research Articles

Integrating hydrological parameters in wildfire risk assessment: a machine learning approach for mapping wildfire probability

Abstract The increasing occurrence of catastrophic wildfire across the globe threatens public health, community safety, ecosystem functioning, and biodiversity resilience. Wildfire risk is closely connected to shifting climatic trends and their impacts on fuel availability and flammability. Although previous research has explored the connection between meteorological conditions and wildfire probabilities, there remains a substantial gap in understanding the influence of hydrologic drivers, such as groundwater recharge, on wildfire dynamics. Both short- and long-term variations in these variables are crucial in shaping fuel conditions, and significant changes can create environments more prone to severe wildfires. This study focuses on Santa Barbara County to examine the connection between wildfire probability and various environmental factors, including meteorological and hydrological data from 1994 to 2021, topography, vegetation, and proximity to road. Using a random forest (RF) machine learning model and fine-scale data (270 m resolution) we achieved high predictive accuracy in identifying wildfire probability. Our findings confirm the important roles of short-term meteorological conditions, such as mean precipitation 12 months and relative humidity 1 month before a wildfire event, in predicting wildfire occurrence. In addition, our results emphasize the critical contribution of long-term hydrological components, such as mean deviation from the historical normal in actual evapotranspiration and recharge in the years preceding the fire, in influencing wildfire probability. Partial dependence plots from our RF model revealed that both positive and negative deviations of these hydrological variables can increase the likelihood of wildfire by controlling fuel water availability and productivity. These findings are particularly relevant given the increasing extreme weather patterns in southern California, significantly affecting water availability and fuel conditions. This study provides valuable insights into the complex interactions between wildfire occurrence and hydrometeorological conditions. Additionally, the resulting wildfire probability map, can aid in identifying high-risk areas, contributing to enhanced mitigation planning and prevention strategies.

The Critical Role of Hydrological Distance in Shaping Nutrient Dynamics Along the Watershed‐Lake Continuum

AbstractTerrestrial hydrological and nutrient cycles are subjected to major disturbances by agricultural operations and urbanization that profoundly influence freshwater resources. Non‐point source pollution is one of the primary causes for water quality deterioration, and thus an emerging imperative in limnology is establishing empirical models that connect watershed attributes and hydrological drivers with lake nutrient dynamics. Here, we compiled three nation‐wide nutrient, meteorological, and watershed‐landscape data sets, to develop Generalized Linear Models that predict lake phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations as a function of the surrounding watershed characteristics within various hydrological distances across 104 Chinese lakes and reservoirs. Our national‐scale investigation revealed that lake nutrient concentrations can be satisfactorily predicted by proxies of natural drivers and anthropogenic activities, reflecting the properties of the surrounding watershed. Counter to previous studies, we found that China's lake nutrient concentrations strongly depend on watershed characteristics within a hydrological distance of less than 45 km rather than the entire watershed. Furthermore, extensive human activities in watersheds not only compromise our predictive capacity, but also increase the hydrological distance that is relevant to predict lake nutrients. This national‐scale characterization can inform one of the most contentious issues in the context of China's lake management, that is, the determination of the extent of the nearshore area, where nutrient control should be prioritized. As far as we know, our study represents the first attempt to apply the concept of hydrological distance and establish statistical models that can delineate the critical spatial domain primarily responsible for the nutrient conditions along the watershed‐lake continuum.

The Pivotal Role of Evaporation in Lake Water Isotopic Variability Across Space and Time in a High Arctic Periglacial Landscape

AbstractRapidly changing climate is disrupting the High Arctic's water systems. As tracers of hydrological processes, stable water isotopes can be used for high quality monitoring of Arctic waters to better reconstruct past changes and assess future environmental threats. However, logistical challenges typically limit the length and scope of isotopic monitoring in High Arctic landscapes. Here, we present a comprehensive isotopic survey of 535 water samples taken in 2018 and 2019 of the lakes and other surface waters of the periglacial Pituffik Peninsula in far northwest Greenland. The δ18O, δ2H, and deuterium‐excess values of these samples, representing 196 unique sites, grant unprecedented insight into the environmental drivers of the regional hydrology and water isotopic variability. We find that the spatial variability of lake water isotopes can best be explained through evaporation and the hydrological ability of a lake to replace evaporative water losses with precipitation and snowmelt. Temporally, summer‐long evaporation can drive lake water isotopes beyond the isotopic range observed in precipitation, and wide interannual changes in lake water isotopes reflect annual weather differences that influenced evaporation. Following this, water isotope samples taken at individual times or sites in similar periglacial landscapes may have limited regional representativeness, and increasing the spatiotemporal extent of isotopic sampling is critical to producing accurate and informative High Arctic paleoclimate reconstructions. Overall, our survey highlights the diversity of isotopic compositions in Pituffik surface waters, and our complete isotopic and geospatial database provides a strong foundation for future researchers to study hydrological changes at Pituffik and across the Arctic.

Influence of data source and copula statistics on estimates of compound flood extremes in a river mouth environment

Abstract. Coastal and riverine floods are major concerns worldwide as they can impact highly populated areas and result in significant economic losses. In a river mouth environment, interacting hydrological and oceanographical processes can enhance the severity of floods. The compound flood hazards from high sea levels and high river discharge are often estimated using copulas, among other methods. Here, we systematically investigate the influence of different data sources coming from observations and models as well as the choice of copula on extreme water level estimates. While we focus on the river mouth at the city of Halmstad (Sweden), the approach presented is easily transferable to other sites. Our results show that the choice of data sources can considerably impact the results up to 10 % and 15 % for the river time series and 3 % to 4.6 % for the sea level time series under the 5- and 30-year return periods, respectively. The choice of copula can also strongly influence the outcome of such analyses up to 13 % and 9.5 % for the 5-year and 30-year return periods. Each percentage refers to the normalized difference in return level results we can expect when choosing a certain copula or input dataset. The copulas found to statistically best fit our datasets are the Clayton, BB1, and Gaussian (once) ones. We also show that the compound occurrence of high sea levels and river runoff may lead to heightened flood risks as opposed to considering them independent processes and that, in the current study, this is dominated by the hydrological driver. Our findings contribute to framing existing studies, which typically only consider selected copulas and datasets, by demonstrating the importance of considering uncertainties.

A novel framework for assessing the joint and relative impacts of precipitation and groundwater on ecological drought processes in Northwest China

AbstractEcological drought has emerged as a critical research topic within eco‐hydrology, driven by the increased drought risk associated with global warming. This study aims to unravel the hydrological processes driving ecological drought in Northwest China by (1) constructing standardized indices for precipitation, groundwater storage anomaly, and ecological water deficit to detect variation across different hydrological components; (2) developing a framework to assess the joint and relative impacts of precipitation and groundwater variations on ecological drought; and (3) identifying the primary hydrological drivers of ecological drought across different regions. The results indicate that the joint impact of precipitation and groundwater on ecological drought variation dominates approximately 60% of the area, primarily in arid and semi‐arid regions. The average contribution of this joint impact to the alleviation of ecological drought ranges between 0.26 and 0.43 across all seasons. Notably, groundwater scarcity, rather than precipitation variation, is the primary driver of ecological drought in regions such as southern Shaanxi, southeastern Gansu, and southern Qinghai, accounting for 12.7% to 21.8% of the total area. These insights into the complex hydrological processes underlying ecological drought have significant implications for water resource management and ecosystem conservation in drought‐prone regions. This research provides valuable information for mitigating drought impacts and protecting vulnerable ecosystems in Northwest China and similar regions worldwide.

The changing rainfall patterns drive the growing flood occurrence in Phnom Penh, Cambodia

Study regionUrban flooding is an intensifying issue in the rapidly developing lowland cities of Southeast Asia. Cambodia’s Phnom Penh City, located at the confluence of the Mekong and Tonle Sap Rivers in the lower Mekong Basin, recently saw increasingly prevalent flash floods, resulting in casualties and damages. Study focusWhile flood planning and impact assessments have been done in the Mekong basin, flood causes in the face of climate change remain insufficiently understood. In this paper, the drivers of the increasingly prevalent floods in Phnom Penh are investigated through analysis of remote sensing and instrumental data. New hydrological insights for the regionWith precipitation records from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation and gauge station dataset, a general precipitation increase of 7 mm/year and a notable shift to a wetter regime were observed. Strong periodicities of 1/3-year, 1/2-year, 1-year and ∼5-year cycles were also identified, which generally showed a considerable increase in intensity from 1981 to 2021. Over the past 40 years, precipitation patterns have intensified. Yet, the average water levels of the rivers surrounding Phnom Penh have declined by 1–2 m from 1981 to 2021, indicating the pressure from climate change is a major hydrological driver contributing to Phnom Penh's flash floods. Meanwhile, Phnom Penh's vulnerability to flash flooding is also likely aggravated by drastic land use changes, which have increased the city's impervious surfaces and reduced its wetlands by 30 % since the 1980s.

Unraveling the role of anthropogenic and hydrologic drivers with respect to the optical and molecular properties of dissolved organic matter and organic phosphorus in a P-contaminated river

Anthropogenic and hydrological drivers are key factors influencing the fate of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) in river runoff. However, how anthropogenic disturbances and hydrological conditions jointly affect the composition and characteristics of DOM and DOP in river runoff remains unclear. This study used fluorescence spectroscopy, Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry, and the stable water isotopes to interpret the chemical composition and properties of DOM and DOP as well as their linkages to anthropogenic disturbances and hydrological conditions in a typical P-contaminated tributary to the central Yangtze River. The results show in the wet season, the average abundance of humic-like components in DOM exceeded 60 %, while the average abundance of tryptophan-like components in DOM exceeded 50 % in the dry season. During the dry season, hydrological conditions had a greater impact on highly unsaturated DOM compounds compared to anthropogenic disturbances because a decrease in precipitation reduced the transport of terrestrial DOM into aquatic systems and increased water retention time in the river, promoting the production of unsaturated compounds from photochemistry. The effects of the two factors were similar in the wet season because active agricultural activities and intense precipitation jointly facilitated the entry of exogenous humics into the runoff, leading to the similar relative abundance of highly unsaturated DOM compounds associated with both factors. Anthropogenic disturbances had a greater impact on aliphatic DOM and DOP than hydrological conditions, which was associated with intense human activities in the watershed, such as phosphate mining, agricultural cultivation, and domestic sewage discharge. This study provides new knowledge about the composition, properties and underlying mechanisms of DOM and DOP in the P-contaminated watershed runoff.

Hydrologic Versus Biogeochemical Control of Nutrient Dynamics in a Shallow Hypersaline Coastal Lagoon: Insight From a Coupled Hydrodynamic‐Water Quality Model

AbstractShallow coastal lagoons with restricted connection to the ocean are often productive but can also be sensitive to nutrient enrichment and hydrologic changes. Resolving nutrient dynamics is important for their sustainable management, yet being able to accurately resolve nutrient budgets has remained a challenge due to their complex hydrological regimes and habitat heterogeneity. In this study, we undertake a systematic nutrient budget of a large shallow hypersaline lagoon (Coorong, South Australia), with assistance of a high‐resolution coupled hydrodynamic‐biogeochemical model, to demonstrate the conditions that lead to nutrient retention. Under current conditions, high rates of evapo‐concentration and limited water connectivity have led to a persistent accumulation of nutrients and poor water quality in substantial areas of the lagoon. The interplay between hydrological drivers and biogeochemical processes was quantified using an adjusted Damköhler number, comparing the timescales of nutrient flushing versus processing. This showed a general transition from hydrologic control to biogeochemical control with increasing distance from the main ocean connection, modified by episodes of increased flows and external loads. Whilst water age was a useful indicator of the factors controlling rates of nutrient retention, interannual variability in retention between areas of the lagoon was explained based on river flows and changes in mean sea level. As the system has been affected by reduced flows over past decades, the results provide evidence that increasing river flow to the lagoon would reduce the nutrient retention, and we discuss the potential for net nutrient export to the ocean under sustained high flows.

Quantifying the Impacts of Density-Dependent Flow on Surface Water–Groundwater Interaction in a Riparian Setup

Surface Water–Groundwater (SW–GW) interaction is a crucial aspect of the hydrological cycle and requires accurate modeling for reliable predictions. In many basic hydrological models and calculations, it is common to assume that the water density is constant. However, density-dependent flow, which accounts for changes in water density, plays a significant role in various hydrological processes. This study aims to quantify the effects of density-dependent flow on SW–GW interaction and evaluate the sensitivity of dominant hydrological drivers to density-dependent flow. Our simulations using the HydroGeoSphere model revealed that neglecting density-dependent flow in SW–GW interaction can lead to inaccurate estimations of water and solute balances. In particular, including density-dependent flow in the model yielded more realistic salinity distributions under gaining river scenarios and captured the gradual expansion of freshwater lenses under losing river scenarios. The results also indicated that under non-density-dependent flow, more saline groundwater is exposed to evapotranspiration, resulting in higher solute mass storage and a more saline unsaturated zone. Further, surface recharge and pumping rates played crucial roles in salinity distribution. This study highlights the critical importance of incorporating density-dependent flow in simulations, providing valuable insights for improving the accuracy of predictions and effectively managing water and solute balances in floodplain aquifers.

Drivers of barrier island water-table fluctuations and groundwater salinization

Barrier islands are threatened by climate change as sea-level rise and higher frequency storm surge lead to more flooding and saltwater intrusion. Vegetation plays a vital role in preventing erosion of barrier islands due to aeolian and hydrological forces. However, vegetation on barrier islands is threatened by rising water tables causing hypoxic conditions and storm-surge overwash introducing saline water to the root zone. To better protect barrier island ecosystems, it is critical to identify the relative influence of different hydrological drivers on water table elevation and salinity, and understand how this influence varies spatially and temporally. In this study, three barrier island sites were instrumented with groundwater wells monitoring water level and specific conductance. Using these data, a set of transfer function noise models were calibrated and used to determine the relative influence of hydrologic drivers including precipitation, evapotranspiration, bay and ocean water levels, and wave height on groundwater levels and specific conductance. We found that drivers of water-level change and specific conductance vary strongly among sites, depending primarily on the surface water connectivity and the geology of the island. Sites with close connection to inlets showed more salinization and responded to a larger number of drivers, while sites that were poorly connected to the ocean responded to fewer drivers.

Inter‐basin comparison of wood flux using random forest modelling and repeated wood extractions in unmonitored catchments

AbstractPredicting wood flux (i.e., wood piece number per time interval) or discharge (metre cubes of wood per second) in rivers is crucial for adequate integrated river management that balances risk assessment and ecological improvement. To enhance our understanding of the transport mechanisms of wood and assess their effects in various geographical contexts, it is necessary to conduct inter‐basin comparative studies and preliminary modelling. The wood flux of two river basins was analysed using video monitoring and random forest predictions based on hydrological drivers. The wood flux dynamics of the Ain and Allier rivers were both compared and contrasted. Although there was shared wood transport hysteresis, hourly wood flux, relative critical flow discharges of wood transport and certain hydrological factors exhibited differences between the two river basins. As a next step, the two random forest models, which were trained previously, were applied to predict wood flux and then wood discharge in a third river (the Rhône), in order to estimate a wood volume export, which can be compared with the wood volumes extracted over a series of a few monthly periods in the Génissiat reservoir. By using the random forest modelling, it is possible to estimate the volume of wood on the Rhône river. Despite the absence of any training data, there is a noticeable correlation, however, the estimated volumes were significantly overestimated. To resolve this issue, a correction factor was applied, accounting for disparities in wood recruitment dynamics between the Rhône basin and the training river basins. It was found that high flow events are underestimated, emphasizing the importance of incorporating local annotations and additional parameters in training the random forest model. Accurately predicting wood flux is important for integrated watershed management, but field observations are still lacking for validation and process‐based understanding.

Varied hydrological regime of a semi-arid coastal wetland

Abstract Coastal wetlands are transitional ecosystems between land and sea. Participants of citizen science programs have detected frequent floods in wetlands, as well as small pools that appear and then disappear. Considering that it is not clear whether their main hydrologic drivers are of marine or continental origin, we studied the El Culebrón wetland located in the Chilean semi-arid zone. El Culebrón is strongly influenced by extreme rain events. This wetland also experiences seasonal changes in its water stage (WS). A high mean sea level agreed with 41% of the WS rises. High intensity storm surges coincided with 53% of WS peaks. A small tsunami in 2022 impacted the WS, and another very intense tsunami flooded it in 2015. An apparent diurnal cycle in the WS was discarded due to an instrumental artifact. The combination of the aforementioned factors provided an explanation for 91% of the WS rises. The probable and novel mechanism for sea level and storm surge influence on WS is the formation of a sand barrier between the coastal lagoon and the sea. As a whole, El Culebrón receives varied influences from both the sea and the mainland, but it seems to be more dependent on freshwater sources.

Drainage effects on carbon budgets of degraded peatlands in the north of the Netherlands

Peatlands store vast amounts of carbon (C). However, land-use-driven drainage causes peat oxidation, resulting in CO2 emission. There is a growing need for ground-truthing CO2 emission and its potential drivers to better quantify long-term emission trends in peatlands. This will help improve National Inventory Reporting and ultimately aid the design and verification of mitigation measures. To investigate regional drivers of CO2 emission, we estimated C budgets using custom-made automated chamber systems measuring CO2 concentrations corrected for carbon export and import. Chamber systems were rotated among thirteen degraded peatland pastures in Friesland (the Netherlands). These peatlands varied in water table depth (WTD), drainage-irrigation management (fixed regulated ditch water level (DWL), subsurface irrigation, furrow irrigation, or dynamic regulated DWL), and soil moisture. We investigated (1) whether drainage-irrigation management and related hydrological drivers could explain variation in C budgets, (2) how nighttime ecosystem respiration (Reconight) related to hydrological drivers, and (3) how C budgets compared with estimates from Tier 1 and Tier 2 models regularly used in National Inventory Reporting. Deep-drained peatlands largely overlapped with C budgets from shallow-drained peatlands. The variation in C budgets could not be explained with drainage-irrigation measures or annual WTD, likely because of high variation between sites. Reconightincreased from 85 to 250 kg CO2 ha−1 day−1 as the WTD dropped from 0 to 50 cm across all sites. A deeper WTD had no apparent effect on Reconight, which could be explained by the unimodal relationship we found between Reconight and soil moisture. Finally, C budgets estimated by Tier 1 emission factors and Tier 2 national models mismatched the between-site and between-year variation found in chamber-based estimated NECBs. To conclude, our study showed that shallow WTDs greatly determine C budgets and that regional C budgets, which can be accurately measure with periodic automated chamber measurements, are instrumental for model validation.

Evaluating seawater intrusion forecast uncertainty under climate change in the Pajaro Valley, California

Climate change and climate variability impacts such as rising sea levels have the potential to exacerbate seawater intrusion and the strain on coastal freshwater resources in already stressed groundwater basins such as those in the Pajaro Valley groundwater basin, California. Regional hydrologic models are often coupled with climate projections to forecast future hydrologic conditions and inform adaptive resources management strategies. However, there is high uncertainty in the future projections of water resources due to uncertainties from downscaling global general circulation models (GCMs) to local scale climate change projections, future land use changes, and the inherent uncertainty of developed hydrologic models. Future climate projections and the magnitude of their influence on modeled hydrologic drivers are highly variable. Therefore, to develop a forecast model, an ensemble of different projections can be used to capture a wider range of basin responses and the associated uncertainties in the modeled forecasts. Understanding the reliability and uncertainty of forecasts is important for developing climate adaptation strategies such as developing protective thresholds, particularly at the basin scale where the impacts are felt, and adaptation is implemented. To demonstrate this, an uncertainty analysis of groundwater level and seawater intrusion forecasts for the Pajaro Valley groundwater basin was performed using an ensemble of three future climate projections with the Pajaro Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (PVIHM) and the first-order second moment (FOSM) method. FOSM uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasts across a multi-GCM climate ensemble provides an upper and lower bound of potential impacts of climate change on sustainability targets related to mitigating seawater intrusion. The groundwater level forecasts’ narrow range of variability can help policymakers in adaptation planning by constraining possible outcomes to a focused range for risk-management decisions. However, less than one-third of groundwater level forecasts met the current protection thresholds to prevent chronic lowering of groundwater. Therefore, sustainability targets may need to be reassessed. Relative to groundwater level changes, the seawater intrusion forecasts had larger uncertainty due to the GCM climate projections and the simulated hydrologic response that were compounded by the propagation of scaling and bias from the GCMs and model simplifications in simulating the coastal boundary.

Assessment of land use/ land cover change derived catchment hydrologic response: An integrated parsimonious hydrological modeling and alteration analysis based approach

Land use/land cover (LULC) change, often a consequence of natural or anthropogenic drivers, plays a decisive role in governing global catchment dynamics, and subsequent impact on regional hydrology. Insight into the complex relationship between the drivers of LULC change and catchment hydrology is of utmost importance to decision makers. Contemplating the dynamic rainfall-runoff response of the Indian catchments, this study proposes an integrated modeling-based approach to identify the drivers and relative contribution to catchment hydrology. The proposed approach was evaluated in the tropical climate Nagavali River Basin (NRB) (9512 km2) of India. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model, which uses daily-scale rainfall, temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, solar radiation, and streamflow information was integrated with the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) technique to characterize the plausible changes in the flow regime of the NRB. Subsequently, the Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) based modeling analysis was performed to quantify the relative contribution of individual LULC components on the catchment water balance. The outcomes of the study revealed that forest land has been significantly converted to agricultural land (45–59%) across the NRB resulting in mean annual streamflow increase of 3.57 m3/s during the monsoon season. The affinity between land use class and streamflow revealed that barren land (CN = 83–87) exhibits the maximum positive response to streamflow followed by the built-up land (CN = 89–91) and fallow land (CN = 88–93). The period 1985–1995 experienced an increased ET scenario (911–1050 mm), while the recent period (2005–2020) experienced reduced ET scenario owing to conversion of forest to agricultural land. Certainly, the study endorses adopting the developed methodology for understanding the complex land use and catchment-scale hydrologic interactions across global-scales for early watershed management planning.

Spatio-temporal changes and hydrological forces of wetland landscape pattern in the Yellow River Delta during 1986–2022

ContextEstuarine wetlands provide valuable ecosystem services, but 20–78% of coastal wetlands are facing the risk of loss by the end of the century. The Yellow River Delta (YRD) wetland, one of the most productive delta areas in the world, has undergone dramatic changes under the influence of a precipitous drop of sediment delivery and runoff, coupled with the invasion of Spartina alterniflora. Monitoring the spatio-temporal patterns, thresholds, and drivers of change in wetland landscapes is critical for sustainable management of delta wetlands.ObjectivesGenerate annual mapping of salt marsh vegetation in the YRD wetland from 1986 to 2022, analyze the trends of wetland patch area and landscape pattern, and explain the hydrological drivers of landscape pattern evolution.MethodsWe combined Landsat 5‒8 and Sentinel-2 images, vegetation phenology, remote sensing indices, and Random Forest supervised classification to map the typical salt marsh vegetation of the YRD. We applied piecewise linear regression to analyze YRD wetland changes and stepwise multiple linear regression to assess the impact of hydrological factors on landscape pattern.ResultsWe identified three stages of landscape pattern evolution with 1997 and 2009 as critical junctures, including the rapid expansion stage, gradual decline stage, and bio-invasion stage. In the rapid expansion stage, the wetland area expanded by 70%, while the typical salt marsh vegetation (Phragmites australis) area was reduced by 25%. In the gradual decline stage, the wetland was reduced by 21% and the Phragmites australis area was reduced by 16%. In the bio-invasion stage, coverage of Spartina alterniflora expanded rapidly, with a 68-fold increase in area relative to 2009, expanding at an average rate of 344 hm2 per year.ConclusionsAreas of total wetland, tidal flat, and Phragmites australis were significantly influenced by cumulative sediment delivery and cumulative runoff, which together explained 61.5%, 75.7% and 63.8% of their variation, respectively. Wetland and tidal flat areas increased with cumulative sediment delivery, while cumulative runoff had a weak negative effect. For Phragmites australis, cumulative runoff had a positive effect, whereas cumulative sediment delivery had a negative effect. Water resources regulation measures should be taken to prevent the degradation of wetland ecosystems, and intervention measures can be implemented during the seedling stage to control the invasion of Spartina alterniflora.

A high‐resolution inter‐annual framework for exploring hydrological drivers of large wood dynamics

AbstractRivers with alluvial bars store more wood than those without, supplied through channel shifting. However, wood dynamics (arrival or new deposits, departure or entrainment, and stable or immobile pieces) can vary substantially over time in response to critical hydrological drivers that are largely unknown. To evaluate them, we studied the dynamics of large wood pieces and logjams along a 12‐km reach of the lower Allier River using six series of aerial images of variable resolution acquired between 2009 and 2020, during which maximum river discharge fluctuated around the dominant flood discharge (Q1.5) that is potentially the bankfull discharge along this well‐preserved not incised reach. Individual wood departure was best correlated with water levels exceeding dominant flood discharge. The duration of the highest magnitude flood was best correlated with wood depositions, with shorter floods resulting in a higher number of deposits. Finally, most of the wood remained stable when river discharge did not exceed 60% of Q1.5 over a long period of time. Changes in inter‐annual wood budget (reach‐scale) depend on the duration over which discharge exceeded 60% of Q1.5. Hydrological conditions driving jam build‐up and removal were similar to those controlling individual wood piece dynamics. The results suggest that specific hydrological conditions influence the dynamics of large wood and log jams in the Allier River. Understanding the dynamics of large wood and its impact on river morphology is fundamental for successful river management and habitat restoration initiatives.

Thermodynamic and hydrological drivers of the soil and bedrock thermal regimes in central Spain

Abstract. An assessment of the soil and bedrock thermal structure of the Sierra de Guadarrama, in central Spain, is provided using subsurface and ground surface temperature data coming from four deep (20 m) monitoring profiles belonging to the Guadarrama Monitoring Network (GuMNet) and two shallow profiles (1 m) from the Spanish Meteorology Service (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, AEMET) covering the time spans of 2015–2021 and 1989–2018, respectively. An evaluation of air and ground surface temperature coupling showed that soil insulation due to snow cover is the main source of seasonal decoupling, being especially relevant in winter at high-altitude sites. Temperature propagation in the subsurface was characterized by assuming a heat conductive regime by considering apparent thermal diffusivity values derived from the amplitude attenuation and phase shift of the annual cycle with depth. This methodology was further extended to consider the attenuation of all harmonics in the spectral domain, which allowed for analysis of thermal diffusivity from high-frequency changes in the soil near the surface at short timescales. For the deep profiles, the apparent thermal diffusivity ranges from 1 to 1.3×10-6 m2 s−1, which is consistent with values for gneiss and granite, the major bedrock components in the Sierra de Guadarrama. However, thermal diffusivity is lower and more heterogeneous in the soil layers close to the surface (0.4–0.8×10-6 m2 s−1). An increase in diffusivity with depth was observed that was generally larger in the soil–bedrock transition at 4–8 m depth. The outcomes are relevant for the understanding of soil thermodynamics in relation to other soil properties. Results with the spectral method suggest that changes in near-surface thermal diffusivity are related to changes in soil moisture content, which makes it a potential tool to gain information about soil drought and water resource availability from soil temperature data.

Dissolved polycyclic aromatic compounds in Canada’s Athabasca River in relation to Oil Sands from 2013 through 2019

The Canada-Alberta Oil Sands Monitoring (OSM) Program began long-term surface water quality monitoring on the lower Athabasca River in 2012. Sampling of low level, bio-accumulative polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) targeted a suite of parent and alkylated compounds in the Athabasca River (AR) mainstem using semi-permeable membrane devices (SPMDs). Samples were collected along a gradient from upstream reference near Athabasca, Alberta, through exposure to the Athabasca oil sands deposit (AOSD), various tributary inflows, and mining activities within the OSMA, to downstream recovery near Wood Buffalo National Park (WBNP) and reference on the Slave River. The program adapted over the years, shifting in response to program review and environmental events. The AOSD chemical fingerprint was present in samples collected within the AOSD, through the oil sands mineable area (OSMA), downstream to recovery from 2013 to 2019. PACs were dominated by alkylated phenanthrenes/anthracenes (PAs) and dibenzothiophenes (Ds), with elevated levels of alkylated fluorenes (Fs), naphthalenes (Ns), fluoranthenes/pyrenes (FlPys) and benzo[a]anthracenes/chrysenes (BaACs), increasing in concentration from C1 < C2 < C3 < C4. Concentrations of these petrogenic PACs were at their highest within the OSMA and downstream of tributaries. The AOSD fingerprint was absent from sites located outside of the influence of the AOSD and downstream of the Peace-Athabasca Delta on the Slave River. PAC concentrations in the AR increased with mainstem discharge and loadings from tributaries, were moderated by the PAD, and diluted by the Peace River. This work bolsters the baseline PAC information previously reported for the Athabasca River and waters downstream, reporting 7 years of data, from all sites within the mainstem monitoring program, and exploring potential regional and hydrological drivers of these between sites and over time.

Geomorphological and meteorological drivers of ephemeral pond hydrology in the Canadian shield forest

AbstractEphemeral ponds in cold and humid forested regions are often vulnerable because of their small size and ephemeral nature. The aim of this study was to identify the geomorphological and meteorological drivers of ephemeral pond hydrology in the forests of cold and humid climates. A multi‐year study of 40 ponds was conducted in the Kenauk forest located in the Canadian Shield of the Outaouais region (Quebec, Canada). Pond bathymetry, mineral and organic sediment thickness, watershed area, slope, canopy cover and maximum depth were measured in‐situ. The spring hydroperiod (the period during which there is water in the ponds between April and October) as well as the surface and groundwater recession rates were measured throughout the study period, from 2016 to 2020. Data from this study show that ponds located at lower altitudes in the landscape are larger, receive water from a larger area, and have longer hydroperiods than ponds located at higher altitudes. The results demonstrated a connection between the ponds and the surrounding aquifer. Spring and early summer precipitation was shown to affect hydroperiods the most, while summer precipitation influenced the presence of water in the ponds from April to October. Winter precipitation appear determinant for pond recession rates. Simple multiple regression models were able to simulate hydroperiods and hydroperiod indices relatively well, but pond recession rates were not well represented by the models. This study brings original multi‐year and multi‐site data identifying parameters and variables that determine ephemeral pond hydrology in cold and humid climates. The results provide new insights into their resilience on the landscape and bring new arguments for their long‐term protection.