This paper study the problem of real-time prediction of inbound passenger flow and the detection and alerting of abnormal passenger flows in urban rail transit (URT) networks. We propose a fused framework that combines a hybrid deep learning model and an evaluation strategy. Specifically, the learning model incorporates Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and attention mechanisms to effectively capture spatial and temporal correlations in passenger flow data. The evaluation strategy utilizes a depth-first search algorithm to determine the optimal travel paths for each individual passenger. And based on the paths, we develop a real-time method for estimating the origin–destination (OD) matrix that utilizes both long-term and short-term historical destination trend vectors to reduce dimensions while improving predictive accuracy. Through extensive testing using data from the Shanghai rail transit system, we demonstrate that this fused framework achieves high prediction accuracy for inbound passenger flow at various stations while efficiently identifying and warning sudden large-scale events involving significant increases in passenger flow volume. This research contributes towards improving overall passenger experience as well as operational resilience within urban rail systems when dealing with large-scale influxes of passengers.
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