Human-induced Stressors Research Articles

Future impacts of reduced freshwater inflow and sea level rise on forage fish and their predators in Apalachicola Bay, Florida

Estuarine ecosystems often support large populations of forage fish, but these small-medium sized fish and the predators they feed may be affected by multiple climate change and human-induced stressors. In the Apalachicola Bay estuary, Florida, USA, reduced freshwater inflow and sea level rise are two prevalent stressors, and little is known about how these environmental changes might impact the forage fish species who inhabit the estuary. This study uses a food web model for Apalachicola Bay to simulate the impacts of future changes in water temperature and salinity on forage fish and predator species who inhabit the estuary. Water temperature and salinity conditions were based on previously developed simulations of reduced freshwater inflow and sea level rise in Apalachicola Bay from 2020 to 2049. These simulated environmental changes were applied as forcing functions in the food web model to drive shifts in species biomasses over time. This study centered on changes in biomass for two highly abundant forage fish species, juvenile silver perch (Bairdiella chrysoura) and juvenile pinfish (Lagodon rhomboides), as well as their major predators, spotted seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus) and inshore lizardfish (Synodus foetens). These changes were assessed at both 10- and 30-year time intervals relative to 2019, along with an examination of forage fish consumption by their predators. Juvenile silver perch biomass increased across all scenarios and time scales, while juvenile pinfish biomass decreased. Consumption of juvenile silver perch by spotted seatrout increased across all scenarios and time scales, and consumption of juvenile pinfish by inshore lizardfish decreased, in concordance with the trends in prey biomass. Both spotted seatrout and inshore lizardfish biomasses decreased across future scenarios, though the high biomass of juvenile silver perch may have played a role in stabilizing the decline of spotted seatrout. Changes in forage fish biomasses and their impacts on predator species as a result of reduced freshwater inflow and sea level rise have implications for ecosystem productivity and the fisheries of the region.

Are tuna always hungry? A deep dive into stomach-fullness measures in the western and central Pacific Ocean

Context Understanding tuna diet and its drivers can provide valuable insights into the dynamics of pelagic ecosystems and their capacity to adapt to environmental and human-induced stressors. Aims To reconstruct tropical tuna dietary histories by using different metrics of stomach fullness and to assess their association with fisheries-related, environmental and biological covariates. Methods We examined stomachs from 8229 skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis), yellowfin (Thunnus albacares) and bigeye tuna (T. obesus) captured in the western and central Pacific Ocean between 2001 and 2021, classified each on the basis of categorical and continuous fullness metrics, then built statistical models to gauge covariate effects. Key results Only models for the binary fullness metric (i.e. empty or non-empty) performed well. Tuna with empty stomachs were more likely to be caught on active gear (e.g. purse seine) and earlier in the day. Skipjack and bigeye tuna with empty stomachs were more likely to be associated with floating objects (e.g. fish-aggregating devices). Conclusions Our results add to the evidence that tropical tunas forage more effectively during the day and more actively when not associated with floating objects. At the individual level, tuna stomach fullness is highly variable. Implications Further research is needed to understand the factors governing this promising indicator of ecosystem change.

Rapid Assessment of Riparian Vegetation at Calyawan River, Barangay Andap, Municipality of New Bataan, Davao de Oro Province, Philippines

Aims: The aim of this study was to examine the vegetation found along the riverbanks of the Calyawan River in Barangay Andap, Municipality of New Bataan, Province of Davao de Oro, Philippines using the transect walk method. The goals were to determine the variety and abundance of the flora along the riverbank, evaluate the conservation status of the discovered plant species, and suggest measures for safeguarding and preserving the riparian environment. Study Design: The study employed a transect walk method to carry out an initial survey of the riparian vegetation. A 1-kilometer transect was conducted along the riverbanks of the Calyawan River to gather qualitative and quantiatative measurements of plant diversity. The evaluation took place on December 20, 2022. This approach facilitated a quick and systematic examination of the vegetation along the riverbanks. Place and Duration: The study was carried out on the riverbanks of the Calyawan River in Barangay Andap, Municipality of New Bataan, Province of Davao de Oro. The fieldwork was conducted on December 20, 2022. The region can be reached by using the Compostela-Montevista-Mati Boundary Road. Methodology: The transect walk approach was employed to record the riparian flora during the survey. Plant species were identified and photographed, but no tangible plant specimens were collected. The obtained data encompassed the identification of fern and angiosperm taxa and families encountered along the transect. The conservation status assessments were conducted using the pre-existing classifications of the species. Results: A rapid assessment revealed the presence of 49 distinct genera of ferns and angiosperm plants belonging to 30 different families along the transect. Out of these, 74% of the riparian plant genera that were identified were found to be endemic to the region. The assessment of the riparian plants' conservation status indicated that 37% were classed as vulnerable, 30% as least concern, 22% as other threatened species, 10% as endangered, and 1% were not categorized. Although the sample time was short, these findings emphasize the abundance and importance of the riparian flora in terms of conservation. Conclusion: The initial study conducted along the riverbanks of Calyawan River indicated a notable variety of plants that grow along the river, with a large number of species that are unique to that area. Many identified plants have a conservation status that emphasizes the necessity for heightened sampling efforts and monitoring in order to gain a more comprehensive understanding of and safeguard this rich ecosystem. Considering the clear human-induced stresses on the forest fragments in the region, it is advisable to enhance and broaden conservation efforts in order to protect the riparian vegetation and guarantee its ongoing existence.

Inferring on fluvial resilience from multi-temporal high-resolution topography and geomorphic unit diversity

The resilience of a river corridor represents its ability to withstand and recover from disturbances. Quantifying fluvial resilience in the face of various stressors is essential for integrating ecology and geomorphology in a context of river management. Geomorphic unit diversity analysis emerges as a valuable tool for characterizing and quantifying fluvial resilience to disturbances due to its inherent connection with fluvial dynamics. This paper aims to analyse and quantify the fluvial resilience of a wandering gravel-bed river affected by natural (e.g., floods) and human-induced (e.g., instream gravel mining) stressors. To achieve this goal, we use multi-temporal high-resolution topographic surveys of the Upper River Cinca (South-Central Pyrenees) spanning from 2014 to 2020. By employing the Geomorphic Unit Tool (GUT) on these surveys, we can map geomorphic units over time, quantify their diversity, and study geomorphic adjustments through morphodynamic signatures, altogether allowing inferring fluvial resilience.Our findings reveal that topographic changes (i.e., erosion and sedimentation) correlate with the type of stressor: maintenance works and gravel mining lead to degradation, while floods induce aggradation. Geomorphic Unit Diversity decreases following channel disturbances caused by gravel mining but rebounds after periods primarily stressed by floods, returning to pre-impact levels within six years. Geomorphic adjustments, such as channel incision and mid bar development, reflect erosion and sedimentation processes respectively, with channel maintenance works and floods being the main drivers. Despite the recovery of the geomorphic unit diversity within the reach, the deficit resulting from gravel extraction remains unresolved, perpetuating a degrading trend that poses risks in reducing lateral connectivity and could potentially catalyse future vegetation encroachment in bars and floodplains, causing changes on flood conveyance and hydraulics. Monitoring the river's geomorphic diversity provides crucial insights for effective conservation and management decisions regarding land use, development, and conservation along riverbanks, thereby sustaining or enhancing fluvial system resilience.

Detection and characterization of vector-borne parasites and Wolbachia endosymbionts in greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) in Nepal

Vector-borne parasite infections affect both domestic and wild animals. They are often asymptomatic but can result in fatal outcomes under natural and human-induced stressors. Given the limited availability of molecular data on vector-borne parasites in Rhinoceros unicornis (greater one-horned rhinoceros), this study employed molecular tools to detect and characterize the vector-borne parasites in rescued rhinoceros in Chitwan National Park, Nepal. Whole blood samples were collected from thirty-six R. unicornis during rescue and treatment operations. Piroplasmida infections were first screened using nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) targeting 18S ribosomal RNA gene. Wolbachia was detected by amplifying 16S rRNA gene, while filarial nematodes were detected through amplification of 28S rRNA, COI, myoHC and hsp70 genes. Our results confirmed the presence of Theileria bicornis with a prevalence of 75% (27/36) having two previously unreported haplotypes (H8 and H9). Wolbachia endosymbionts were detected in 25% (9/36) of tested samples and belonged to either supergroup C or F. Filarial nematodes of the genera Mansonella and Onchocerca were also detected. There were no significant association between T. bicornis infections and the age, sex, or location from which the animals were rescued. The high prevalence of Theileria with novel haplotypes along with filarial parasites has important ecological and conservational implications and highlights the need to implement parasite surveillance programs for wildlife in Nepal. Further studies monitoring vector-borne pathogens and interspecies transmission among wild animals, livestock and human are required.

Physiological responses of invasive round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) to environmental stressors across a latitudinal span

Ecosystems worldwide are struggling with increasingly high levels of human-induced stressors, impacting their ecological health at local, regional, and global scales. Among the factors affecting freshwater organisms, temperature stands out, especially given the recent escalation of global warming, with possible adverse effects. In this study, we examined the basal levels of oxidative stress parameters in the round goby Neogobius melanostomus, spanning its native and non-native ranges of occurrence. We aimed to assess five populations across transcontinental scale (Turkey, Croatia, Slovakia, Poland, Finland) to determine whether individuals already experiencing conditions other than their thermal optimum (such as those in Turkey and Finland) would display elevated non-enzymatic indicators (level of lipid peroxidation and reduced glutathione levels) and enzymatic indicators (activity of glutathione peroxidase and catalase activity) of oxidative stress compared to those inhabiting milder ecosystems. The results obtained did not align with our initial predictions. The native Turkish population exhibited the lowest values for both antioxidants and oxidative damage, indicating an efficient redox system in this species. All tested parameters showed variation among populations, as well as between tissues and sexes. Temperature did not emerge as significant factor in any of the parameters tested, while for glutathione peroxidase, our analysis indicated a positive relationship with enzyme activity and salinity. The lack of a continuous latitudinal pattern in the non-native populations suggests the species’ potential for adaptive shifts, indicating superior adaptive abilities, especially in human affected ecosystems, rather than strictly adhering to environmental gradients.

Application of the Ocean Health Index to assess ocean and coastal conditions of the Tokyo Metropolitan area

Ocean ecosystem services are fundamental to coastal economic development and climate regulation. The Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA) is one of the world’s most significant bay areas, with its economic development and residents relying on a healthy ocean and diverse marine ecosystem services. Post-World War II, the coastal zones of TMA have suffered from various human-induced stresses and impacts, jeopardizing the capacity of ocean ecosystem services and sustainable development. Although recent years have seen improvements in basic marine water quality, other ecosystem health issue, such as biodiversity, carbon storage, coastal protection are remain limited and require comprehensive enhancement. To better understand the current state of ocean health, promote more comprehensive ocean management decisions and plans, and support sustainable development in the region, it is essential to evaluate the ocean’s condition in the TMA and to assess future trends and risks. The Ocean Health Index (OHI) offers a comprehensive framework to evaluate global and regional ocean health conditions and their ecosystem services. This study applies the OHI to assess the ocean and coastal health of TMA, with indicators and reference points adjusted based on local conditions. From 2014 to 2019, the OHI assessment results indicate that TMA obtained an overall OHI score of 49 (out of 100), with goals ranging from 13 to 87. The environmental and social goals, such as Tourism and Recreation (87), Clean Water (67), Coastal Livelihoods and Economies (62), Sense of Place (62), and Artisanal Fishery Opportunity (51), are relatively high. In contrast, the ecological goals, such as Biodiversity (14), Carbon Storage (13), Coastal Protection (38), and Food Provision (24), are relatively low. This case study highlights strategies for improving ocean health conditions in TMA from both OHI goals and management structure perspectives. The methods and results provide a quantitative tool for regional marine and coastal management in TMA, aiding regional management organizations to establish quantifiable objectives for actions that were previously difficult to quantify. These results can indirectly promote the establishment of more comprehensive and holistic regional management organizations in TMA, which is currently fragmented, thereby effectively enhancing ocean health in TMA.

Effects of chironomid larvae density and mosquito biocide on methane and carbon dioxide dynamics in freshwater sediments.

Small lentic water bodies are important emitters of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2), but the processes regulating their dynamics and susceptibility to human-induced stressors are not fully understood. Bioturbation by chironomid larvae has been proposed as a potentially important factor controlling the dynamics of both gases in aquatic sediments. Chironomid abundance can be affected by the application of biocides for mosquito control, such as Bti (Bacillus thuringiensis var. israelensis). Previous research has attributed increases in CH4 and CO2 emissions after Bti application to reduced bioturbation by chironomids. In this study, we separately tested the effect of chironomid bioturbation and Bti addition on CH4 production and emission from natural sediments. In a set of 15 microcosms, we compared CH4 and CO2 emission and production rates with high and low densities of chironomid larvae at the bioturbating stage, and standard and five times (5x) standard Bti dose, with control sediments that contained neither chironomid larvae nor Bti. Regardless of larvae density, chironomid larvae did not affect CH4 nor CO2 emission and production of the sediment, although both rates were more variable in the treatments with organisms. 5xBti dosage, however, led to a more than three-fold increase in CH4 and CO2 production rates, likely stimulated by bioavailable dissolved carbon in the Bti excipient and priming effects. Our results suggest weak effects of bioturbating chironomid larvae on the CH4 and CO2 dynamics in aquatic ecosystems. Furthermore, our results point out towards potential functional implications of Bti for carbon cycling beyond those mediated by changes in the macroinvertebrate community.

Top predator status and trends: ecological implications, monitoring and mitigation strategies to promote ecosystem-based management

The conservation and management of marine ecosystems hinge on a comprehensive understanding of the status and trends of top predators. This review delves into the ecological significance of marine top predators, examining their roles in maintaining ecosystem stability and functioning through an integrated analysis of current scientific literature. We first assess the efficacy of various monitoring methods, ranging from traditional field observations to cutting-edge technologies like satellite tracking and environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis and evaluating their strengths and limitations in terms of accuracy, spatial coverage, and cost-effectiveness, providing resource managers with essential insights for informed decision-making. Then, by synthesizing data from diverse marine ecosystems, this study offers a comprehensive overview of the trends affecting top predator populations worldwide. We explore the multifaceted impacts of human activities, climate change, and habitat degradation on the abundance and distribution of these key species. In doing so, we shed light on the broader implications of declining top predator populations, such as trophic cascades and altered community structures. Following a thorough assessment of successful strategies for reversing the decline of top predators, a compilation of recommendations is presented, encompassing effective governance interventions. A crucial aspect of effective ecosystem-based management is the implementation of robust monitoring strategies. Mitigation measures are imperative to reverse the adverse impacts on marine top predators. We present a comprehensive array of mitigation options based on successful case studies. These include the establishment of marine protected areas, the enforcement of fisheries regulations, and the promotion of sustainable fishing practices. We deepen the synergies between these strategies and their potential to mitigate human-induced stressors on top predator populations to safeguard their pivotal role in maintaining marine ecosystem structure and function. By examining marine top predators’ ecological significance, analyzing population trends, discussing monitoring techniques, and outlining effective mitigation strategies, we provide a comprehensive resource for researchers, policymakers, and stakeholders engaged in fostering ecosystem-based management approaches. We conclude that integrating these insights into current management frameworks will be essential to safeguard both top predators and the broader marine environment for future generations.

AI-driven remote sensing enhances Mediterranean seagrass monitoring and conservation to combat climate change and anthropogenic impacts

Seagrasses are undergoing widespread loss due to anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Since 1960, the Mediterranean seascape lost 13–50% of the areal extent of its dominant and endemic seagrass-Posidonia oceanica, which regulates its ecosystem. Many conservation and restoration projects failed due to poor site selection and lack of long-term monitoring. Here, we present a fast and efficient operational approach based on a deep-learning artificial intelligence model using Sentinel-2 data to map the spatial extent of the meadows, enabling short and long-term monitoring, and identifying the impacts of natural and human-induced stressors and changes at different timescales. We apply ACOLITE atmospheric correction to the satellite data and use the output to train the model along with the ancillary data and therefore, map the extent of the meadows. We apply noise-removing filters to enhance the map quality. We obtain 74–92% of overall accuracy, 72–91% of user’s accuracy, and 81–92% of producer’s accuracy, where high accuracies are observed at 0–25 m depth. Our model is easily adaptable to other regions and can produce maps in in-situ data-scarce regions, providing a first-hand overview. Our approach can be a support to the Mediterranean Posidonia Network, which brings together different stakeholders such as authorities, scientists, international environmental organizations, professionals including yachting agents and marinas from the Mediterranean countries to protect all P. oceanica meadows in the Mediterranean Sea by 2030 and increase each country’s capability to protect these meadows by providing accurate and up-to-date maps to prevent its future degradation.

Urbanization correlates with the prevalence and richness of blood parasites in Eurasian Blackbirds (Turdus merula)

Urbanization is increasing worldwide, producing severe environmental impacts. Biodiversity is affected by the expansion of cities, with many species being unable to cope with the different human-induced stressors present in these landscapes. However, this knowledge is mainly based on research from taxa such as plants or vertebrates, while other organisms like protozoa have been less studied in this context. The impact of urbanization on the transmission of vector-borne pathogens in wildlife is still unclear despite its relevance for animal and human health. Here, we investigated whether cities are associated with changes in the prevalence and richness of lineages of three vector-borne protozoans (Plasmodium, Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon) in Eurasian blackbirds (Turdus merula) from multiple urban and forest areas in Europe. Our results show important species-specific differences between these two habitat types. We found a significant lower prevalence of Leucocytozoon in urban birds compared to forest birds, but no differences for Plasmodium and Haemoproteus. Furthermore, the richness of parasite lineages in European cities was higher for Plasmodium but lower for Leucocytozoon than in forests. We also found one Plasmodium lineage exclusively from cities while another of Leucocytozoon was only found in forests suggesting a certain level of habitat specialization for these protozoan vectors. Overall, our findings show that cities provide contrasting opportunities for the transmission of different vector-borne pathogens and generate new scenarios for the interactions between hosts, vectors and parasites.

Negative World Assumptions Mediate the Impact of Early Adversity and External Stressors on Mental Health in Young People Amid Social Unrest and COVID-19

The increasing number of population-level stressors globally has raised concerns over their mental health consequences on young people. Few studies, however, have examined such factors in population-based youth samples, particularly with consideration of how different stressor types could affect mental health via their impacts on specific world assumptions. As part of a household-based epidemiological study, 766 young people (aged 15–25 years) participated in this study from June 2021 to 2022. We examined how negative world assumptions, assessed using the World Assumption Scale (WAS), and the subdomains of benevolence, meaningfulness, and self-worth, would mediate the impact of stressors on symptom expression. Stressors included population-level stressful events, such as those related to social unrest (TEs) and the COVID-19 pandemic (PEs), as well as personal stressful life events (SLEs) and adverse childhood experiences (ACEs). Meanwhile, symptoms included depressive, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms. Results showed that negative meaningfulness assumptions significantly mediated the effect of social unrest–related TEs on PTSD symptoms, while benevolence and self-worth mediated the effect of ACEs on depressive and anxiety symptoms. COVID-19 PEs and SLEs showed no significant association with world assumptions. Higher overall negative world assumptions were also significantly associated with poorer functioning and health-related quality of life. The findings suggest that world assumptions play specific mediating roles between different types of external stressors and symptom outcomes, with population-level human-induced stressors and childhood adversity playing more determining roles. These observations provide opportunities for designing interventions targeting negative world assumptions.

Bayesian Network Analysis for Shoreline Dynamics, Coastal Water Quality, and Their Related Risks in the Venice Littoral Zone, Italy

The coastal environment is vulnerable to natural hazards and human-induced stressors. The assessment and management of coastal risks have become a challenging task, due to many environmental and socio-economic risk factors together with the complex interactions that might arise through natural and human-induced pressures. This work evaluates the combined effect of climate-related stressors on low-lying coastal areas by applying a multi-risk scenario analysis through a Bayesian Network (BN) approach for the Venice coast. Based on the available open-source and remote sensing data for detecting shoreline changes, the developed BN model was trained and validated with oceanographic variables for the 2015–2019 timeframe, allowing us to understand the dynamics of local-scale shoreline erosion and related water quality parameters. Three “what-if” scenarios were carried out to analyze the relationships between oceanographic boundary conditions, shoreline evolution, and water quality parameters. The results demonstrate that changes in sea surface height and significant wave height may significantly increase the probability of high-erosion and high-accretion states. Moreover, by altering the wave direction, the water quality variables show significant changes in the higher-risk class. The outcome of this study allowed us to identify current and future coastal risk scenarios, supporting local authorities in developing adaptation plans.

Inferring the health of coral reefs on the Egyptian coast of the Gulf of Aqaba for three branching-coral species

ABSTRACTThis investigation examined the vulnerability of three branching coral species (Acropora humilis, Pocillopora damicornis, and Stylophora pistillata) to environmental changes within the marine reserves of Taba, Nuweiba, and Dahab in the Gulf of Aqaba. Coral growth rates were assessed as a key indicator of coral reef vitality, reacting to shifting physicochemical parameters. A. humilis manifested the highest growth rate, followed by S. pistillata and P. damicornis. Site-specific data analysis found Dahab displayed the greatest coral proliferation, with Taba exhibiting the least. Accounting for seasonal changes, spring showed maximal coral growth. Statistical analysis revealed a positive correlation between salinity and coral growth rate, contrasted by a negative correlation with variables such as pH, PO4-P, and silicate (SiO4-Si). This work underscores the significant influence of environmental factors on coral growth rates, and by extension, the health of coral reef ecosystems. These findings are integral to coral reef management, suggesting mitigation of adverse environmental factors could enhance these ecosystems’ resilience against climatic shifts and human-induced stressors. By combining species, site, seasonal, and physicochemical variations, this research underlines the importance of localized conservation strategies.

Declines in the Mekong’s Megadiverse Larval Fish Assemblages: Implications for Sustainable Development

Migratory fishes of the Mekong Basin are facing challenges from human-induced stressors. Quantifying the patterns of fish’s early life stages provides important information on spawning seasons, spawning and nursery habitats, reproductive strategies, migration and dispersal patterns, and stock status. However, the ecology of the Mekong larval fishes, including patterns and drivers of larval fish dispersal, is not well understood. Here, we investigate the temporal variability of drifting larval and juvenile fish assemblages in the Cambodian Mekong River and identify their environmental drivers using long-term (10 year) daily fish larval/juvenile data collections. We found that, in the Mekong main channel, the larval and juvenile assemblages were dominated by longitudinal migrants from the families Cyprinidae and Pangasiidae. Peak abundance and richness were found to occur in July and August, respectively. We detected a significant decline in larval and juvenile abundance and richness over the study period. Cross-wavelet analysis revealed that water levels always lead larval abundance, but lag richness. In addition, cross-correlation analysis observed that peak abundance and richness occurred eight weeks and one week, respectively, before the peak water level. We also discovered that species abundance and richness had a strongly positive relationship with maximum water levels. Variation in fish larval and juvenile abundance and richness was also related to total phosphorus, nitrate, alkalinity, and conductivity. Maximum water levels and the key water quality parameters (e.g., phosphorus, nitrate, alkalinity, and conductivity) significantly influence larval and juvenile fish abundance and richness patterns. Therefore, safeguarding natural seasonal flows, especially maximum flows associated with the peak flood pulse, as well as maintaining good water quality, are key to the reproductive success of many migratory fishes and effective dispersal of offspring to the lower floodplain for nursing, rearing, and growth. Clean and unregulated rivers support productive and diverse fisheries.

Simulating synergistic impacts of climate change and human induced stressors on a northern Gulf of Mexico estuarine food web

Apalachicola Bay, an estuary located in northwest Florida, is likely to experience a continuing increase in the severity of the effects of changing climate and human-induced stressors, such as sea level rise and changes in freshwater inflow. A coupled hydrodynamic and food web modeling approach was used to simulate future scenarios of freshwater input and sea level rise in Apalachicola Bay from 2020 to 2049 to demonstrate the range of temporal and spatial changes in water temperature, salinity, fisheries species biomasses, total food web biomass and upper trophic level diversity. Additionally, a survey of Apalachicola Bay stakeholders was conducted concurrently with model development to assess stakeholder knowledge and concerns regarding species and environmental changes within the system. Results of the model simulations indicated an increase in water temperature across all scenarios and an increase or decrease in salinity with scenarios of low or high river flow, respectively. These results aligned with the impacts anticipated by stakeholders. White shrimp biomass increased with low river flow and decreased with high river flow, while Gulf flounder biomass decreased across all scenarios. The simulated trends in white shrimp biomass contrasted with stakeholder perceptions. The food web model results also showed an increase in total food web biomass and decrease in upper trophic level diversity across all future scenarios. For all modeled simulations, the largest differences in future environmental variables and species biomasses were between scenarios of low and high river flow, rather than low and high sea level rise, indicating a stronger influence of river flow on the abiotic and biotic characteristics of the estuary. Stakeholders anticipated a future reduction in river flow and increase in sea level rise as negatively impacting the Franklin County economy and stakeholders’ personal interaction with the Apalachicola Bay ecosystem. The use of the ensemble modeling approach combined with the stakeholder survey highlights the use of multiple knowledge types to better understand abiotic and biotic changes in the estuarine system. Results provide insight on the synergistic effects of climate change and human-induced stressors on both the estuarine food web and human community of Apalachicola Bay.

The depositional history of the Knysna estuary since European colonization in the context of sea level and human impacts

IntroductionEstuaries are highly vulnerable systems and increasingly exposed to a number of environmental, climatic and human-induced stressors. The Knysna estuary and lagoon complex, on the south coast of South Africa, is regarded as environmentally and economically important, yet faces regional impacts resulting from ongoing urbanisation and land use change as well as the significant global threats of rising sea levels and changing climate. Although the estuary has been reasonably well studied in terms of modern ecological processes, little is known of how the system has responded to changes in the longer term, not least the impact of European colonization and subsequent population growth and economic development.MethodsIn order to address this shortcoming, a series of shallow (<1 m) cores was extracted from a range of representative habitats and marine influences in the estuary and three of these (namely KNY-19A, KNY-19B, KNY-19G) selected for detailed analysis, including organic matter content, magnetic susceptibility, selected elemental analysis and particle size.Results and DiscussionNotwithstanding the challenges of dating estuarine sediments due to the possibility of erosion and resuspension, combined modelling of 210Pb and 14C ages is successfully deployed to develop an age-depth relationship for each core, providing a chronological framework for late Holocene environmental changes. Sedimentary characteristics of the three cores, taken in contrasting estuarine conditions, yield insights as to how different parts of the estuary responded to changes in sea level and anthropogenic activities in and around the Knysna basin, as well as in the wider catchment.

Nutrient effects on drought responses vary across common temperate grassland species

Drought and nutrient input are two main global change drivers that threaten ecosystem function and services. Resolving the interactive effects of human-induced stressors on individual species is necessary to improve our understanding of community and ecosystem responses. This study comparatively assessed how different nutrient conditions affect whole-plant drought responses across 13 common temperate grassland species. We conducted a fully factorial drought-fertilization experiment to examine the effect of nutrient addition [nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and combined NP] on species' drought survival, and on drought resistance of growth as well as drought legacy effects. Drought had an overall negative effect on survival and growth, and the adverse drought effects extended into the next growing season. Neither drought resistance nor legacy effects exhibited an overall effect of nutrients. Instead, both the size and the direction of the effects differed strongly among species and between nutrient conditions. Consistently, species performance ranking under drought changed with nitrogen availability. The idiosyncratic responses of species to drought under different nutrient conditions may underlie the seemingly contradicting effects of drought in studies on grassland composition and productivity along nutrient and land-use gradients—ranging from amplifying to dampening. Differential species’ responses to combinations of nutrients and drought, as observed in our study, complicate predictions of community and ecosystem responses to climate and land-use changes. Moreover, they highlight the urgent need for an improved understanding of the mechanisms that render species more or less vulnerable to drought under different nutrients.

Identifying social thresholds and measuring social achievement in social-ecological systems: A cross-regional comparison of fisheries in the United States

In marine social-ecological systems (SESs), environmental and human-induced stressors can push ecosystems from a high-functioning state into a new, often undesirable state (i.e., regime shift) with limited delivery of ecological goods and services (e.g., high to low fisheries production). While ecological regime shifts are well studied, social regime shifts within SESs are underexplored. Socioeconomic indicators were used to identify thresholds and trends in fisheries and coastal employment for six marine SESs around the U.S. These study sites represent coastal regions delineated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for which periodic monitoring and data collection occur. We first used Generalized Additive Modeling to identify periods of change, then linked them to potential regional and national drivers. Social outcomes were ranked using composite social and environmental indices for each region, constructed using Data Envelopment Analysis. Technological innovation and national regulatory changes (e.g., Magnuson Stevens Act) co-occurred with detected nationwide shifts in fisheries productivity, while engagement in specific fisheries determined local regional shifts. Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of the complementary threshold analysis and outcome ranking methods in identifying regimes and assessing performance. Together, they provide management information and insight into possibilities for preventing unfavorable shifts and to assess society’s ability to adapt to those shifts.

Bridging the Divide from Paleoecology to Neoecology

As paleoecologists we often claim that our science is relevant to conservation, but relatively few management plans are steered by paleoecological insights. One of our common justifications that paleoecology should feature in conservation is to determine what is ‘natural’. Intergenerational perceptions of naturalness are shaped by our experiences of ecosystems continuously and progressively influenced by human-induced stresses – the concept of shifting baselines. Those stresses have been present since the last ice-age in the tropical Andes, when fire regimes and megafaunal extinctions pre-dated the onset of the Holocene. Whereas human-induced ecological change is only evident for 200 years on the Galapagos Islands. But both instances are consistent that they show that low numbers of people, probably not even living in permanent settlements wrought lasting ecological changes and extinctions. Cascading effects of tortoise loss were seen on Galapagos vegetation that directly or indirectly led to extinctions among endemic plants. Making paleoecology relevant to conservation requires finding levels of taxonomic and temporal resolution that are relevant to land managers and providing concrete recommendations for restoration.