Human-induced Land Use Changes Research Articles

Effects of Land Use Change on Avian Diversity in the Semi-Arid Area of Longxi Loess Plateau

Biodiversity is under threat due to human-induced changes in land use. While various aspects of biodiversity are increasingly studied in response to these changes, there is limited understanding of their effects on the structure and composition of bird communities in dryland regions. We examined the impacts of land use change on birds in the semi-arid area of the Longxi Loess Plateau by considering taxonomic diversity, functional diversity, and phylogenetic diversity. We analyzed both the α- and β-diversity of avian communities across different dimensions of diversity and calculated functional and phylogenetic structures using the net relatedness index. Our findings revealed that species richness was highest in farmland and abandoned farmland, while artificial mixed forests exhibited the highest number of unique species. Functional and phylogenetic α-diversity was greater in farmland and abandoned farmland when compared to the other four land use types. Moreover, the taxonomic diversity in artificial mixed forests, artificial Caragana korshinskii forests, and artificial Platycladus orientalis forests surpassed that in typical grasslands, but no differences were observed in functional and phylogenetic diversity. Regarding β-diversity, turnover patterns dominated multidimensional dissimilarity, with taxonomic turnover and total dissimilarity lower than their functional counterparts but higher than phylogenetic counterparts. Based on the present findings, we emphasize the long-term cessation of ongoing silvicultural initiatives to safeguard bird diversity in the semi-arid region of the Longxi Loess Plateau. This is crucial for narrowly distributed species such as Alectoris magna, as they face heightened vulnerability to losses.

Land-use change in the past 40 years explains shifts in arthropod community traits.

Understanding how anthropogenic activities induce changes in the functional traits of arthropod communities is critical to assessing their ecological consequences. However, we largely lack comprehensive assessments of the long-term impact of global-change drivers on the trait composition of arthropod communities across a large number of species and sites. This knowledge gap critically hampers our ability to predict human-driven impacts on communities and ecosystems. Here, we use a dataset of 1.73 million individuals from 877 species to study how four functionally important traits of carabid beetles and spiders (i.e. body size, duration of activity period, tolerance to drought, and dispersal capacity) have changed at the community level across ~40 years in different types of land use and as a consequence of land use changes (that is, urbanisation and loss of woody vegetation) at the landscape scale in Switzerland. The results show that the mean body size in carabid communities declined in all types of land use, with particularly stronger declines in croplands compared to forests. Furthermore, the length of the activity period and the tolerance to drought of spider communities decreased in most land use types. The average body size of carabid communities in landscapes with increased urbanisation in the last ~40 years tended to decrease. However, the length of the activity period, the tolerance to drought, and the dispersal capacity did not change significantly. Furthermore, urbanisation promoted increases in the average dispersal capacities of spider communities. Additionally, urbanisation favoured spider communities with larger body sizes and longer activity periods. The loss of woody areas at the landscape level was associated with trait shifts to carabid communities with larger body sizes, shorter activity periods, higher drought tolerances and strongly decreased dispersal capacities. Decreases in activity periods and dispersal capacities were also found in spider communities. Our study demonstrates that human-induced changes in land use alter key functional traits of carabid and spider communities in the long term. The detected trait shifts in arthropod communities likely have important consequences for their functional roles in ecosystems.

Conservation Responsibility for Priority Habitats under Future Climate Conditions: A Case Study on Juniperus drupacea Forests in Greece

Juniperus drupacea is a highly morphologically and genetically differentiated Tertiary relict, displaying a disjunct geographical range in the eastern Mediterranean. Being a thermophilous, light-demanding, and moderately drought-resistant tree, it survived the past climatic oscillations via altitudinal migration. The species has its westernmost range limit, and its only populations in the EU, in Mts Parnon and Taygetos (Greece). These populations are genetically isolated and distinct compared to their Asian counterparts. For Europe, Juniperus drupacea is categorized as an endangered species by the IUCN. Juniperus drupacea forests constitute a priority habitat for conservation in the EU. However, the species’ conservation status has never been assessed in Greece and the same applies to its climate and land-use change assessment. As Greece is already facing the short-term impacts of climate- and human-induced land-use change, studies dealing with the potential long-term climate- and land-use change effects on rare plant species distribution are urgently needed to implement efficient conservation management plans. Our research employs species distribution models, considering multiple climate scenarios and abiotic factors across different timeframes (2020s, 2050s, 2080s), factoring in the potential threat of forest fires. Additionally, we assess the species’ extinction risk at the European level, according to IUCN Criteria A and B. Study findings indicate significant habitat changes and an elevated extinction risk for Juniperus drupacea in Greece. To safeguard this priority habitat, informed conservation strategies, management plans, and policy making are recommended, based on our scientific insights.

Assessment of flood risk by using geospatial techniques in Wabi Shebele River Sub-basin, West Hararghe Zone, southeastern Ethiopia

Floods are produced as a result of several factors such as human-induced land-use changes, topographic conditions, and climate change. This study aimed to assess flood risk using geographic information system-based multi-criteria evaluation techniques in the Wabi Shebele River Sub-basin. Six parameters, namely, soil type, slope, land use and land cover, proximity to rivers, rainfall, and elevation, were used. The eigenvector of weight for each factor was computed in IDRISI Selva 17.0. Results show that the study area was subjected to a very high 527.31 km2 (9.42%), high 2133.66 km2 (38.12%), moderate 1906.44 km2 (34.06%), low 847.35 km2 (15.14%), and a very low 182.54 km2 (3.26%) flood risk, respectively. Results reveal that the Wabi Shebele River Sub-basin is highly vulnerable to flooding. This study assists policymakers with regard to land-use planning. To reduce the effects of flood risk, integrated watershed management must be implemented in the study area.

A vision of a One Health system for Australia: on the need to rethink our health system.

A vision of a One Health system for Australia: on the need to rethink our health system.

Landscape Diversity Enhances Climate Change Resilience: A Review

The review aimed at understanding landscape diversity in the face of global population pressure, agricultural land shortages, food insecurity, and climate insecurity. We used published literature to determine whether landscape diversity improves resilience to climate change. Literature searches were performed using the Science Direct database, Google Scholar search engine, and the professional network ResearchGate using keywords. Land degradation, soil resilience, and natural resources from 2000 to 2019. 120 publications were searched, including journal articles, reports, and book chapters. Of these, 68 were considered more relevant and all were read and considered in writing this review. Climate change, food insecurity, and land degradation have been established to be major challenges for developing countries leading to the loss of genetic diversity. Our results show that the loss of proper habitat may allow fast-growing invaders to occupy the remaining limited resources. Therefore, alien species may accelerate invasion under human-induced land-use changes during times of global change. The time lag between range expansion and habitat loss has been thwarted. A golden window to prevent the spread of alien species established in the habitat.

Environmental DNA metabarcoding reveals the impact of different land use on multitrophic biodiversity in riverine systems

Human-induced changes in land use drive an alarming decline in river biodiversity and related ecosystem services worldwide. However, how different land use shapes aquatic multitrophic communities is still not well understood. Here, we used the biodiversity dataset from bacteria to fish captured by the environmental DNA (eDNA) approach in the four riverine systems with spatially different land use (i.e., Slightly disturbed group, Upstream disturbed group, Downstream disturbed group, and Strongly disturbed group) to reveal the changes in multitrophic biodiversity in relation to human land use. Firstly, our data showed that spatially different land use determined the pollutant loads of the riverine systems, most pollutants (e.g., TN and NH3-N) had significant differences among the four riverine systems. Secondly, taxonomic α diversity across multitrophic levels did not necessarily change significantly, yet the change in community structure can be considered as a more sensitive indicator to reflect different land use, because different land use shaped the unique structure of multitrophic communities, and the dissimilarity of community structure was closely associated with land use gradient (e.g., positive relationships in the Slightly disturbed group, negative relationships in the Strongly disturbed group). Thirdly, different land use induced the shifts of key taxa, resulting in the variation of community structure and the change of co-occurrence network. Overall, these findings suggest that spatially different land use plays a critical role in shaping aquatic multitrophic communities, and an in-depth understanding of the interdependences between biodiversity and land use is a critical prerequisite for formulating river management strategies.

Agricultural practices in India during the Holocene: A pollen view point and a critical appraisal

Pollen assemblages provide valuable insights into the beginning of cereal-based agricultural practices and the transition from a hunting and gathering to a sedentary and food-producing way of life. Anthropogenic pollen indicators (APIs) and their precise identification, with respect to taxonomic resolution, can help to document the history of agricultural development, pastoral activities and human-induced land-use changes, particularly for the Holocene Epoch. Moreover, careful selection of pollen types, and/or indices, established for a particular region, are useful for obtaining meaningful reconstructions of anthropogenic activities through time. Specific pollen-markers have been used to deduce the inception of agriculture and the impact of anthropogenic activities on the landscape, from the different regions of the world. For India, Cerealia, and other cultural plant pollen taxa, such as Amaranthaceae, Caryophyllaceae, Brassicaceae, Polygonaceae, Artemisia, Cannabis sativa, Alternanthera, Urtica, Rumex and Borreria have been used as marker pollen types for indicating agricultural practices and other anthropogenic activities. In this communication, we have made an attempt to trace the advent and intensification of agricultural practices in the varied physiographic regions of the Indian sub-continent, on the basis of the available palynological records. We have further critically analysed the plausibility of agricultural practices and other human activities during the Late Pleistocene/Pre and Early Holocene with respect to the Indian scenario.

Flood hazard assessment and mapping using GIS integrated with multi-criteria decision analysis in upper Awash River basin, Ethiopia

Floods have destroyed people’s lives as well as social and environmental assets. Flooding is becoming more severe and frequent as a result of climate change and an increase in human-induced land-use changes, which puts pressure on river channels and causes changes in river morphology. The study was aimed to assess flood danger and map inundation areas in Ethiopia’s Teji watershed, which is prone to flooding. The basic flood-producing factors in this study were derived from soil, slope, elevation, drainage-density and land use land cover data. The opinions of public institutions and expert decisions were gathered to determine the weight of the factors in the analytic hierarchy process. The collected data were processed using the ArcGIS environment and the analytic hierarchy method to produce a flood danger map. According to the findings of this study, approximately 43.28 and 13.09% of the area were vulnerable to high and very high flood risk zones, respectively. As a result, flood prediction, early warning and management practices could be implemented on a regular and sustainable basis.

Species-specific responses to land-use change in island insectivorous bats

Due to their ability to disperse over water, over half of the extant bat species occur on islands and ca. 25% of these are island endemics. They are often the sole native island mammals and play key roles in the maintenance of insular ecosystems. Yet, due to increasing anthropogenic pressures, ca. 60% of island-restricted bats are now threatened. The sub-tropical island of Madeira is home to the Macaronesian endemic Pipistrellus maderensis, to Nyctalus leisleri verrucosus - an endemic subspecies to Madeira - and Plecotus austriacus. These species each represent the three main foraging guilds of insectivorous bats namely, edge space foragers, open space foragers and narrow space foragers. Despite the great conservation value and potential to provide pest suppression services, little is known about the habitat associations of Macaronesian bats. We used low-cost autonomous sensors to conduct an island-wide bioacoustic survey to investigate how Madeiran bats are affected by human-induced land-use change and orography. Overall we obtained >63,000 bat passes across 216 sites and at each site, we quantified land-use cover and altitude within a radius of 250, 500 and 1000 m. Pipistrellus maderensis was the most widespread and commonly recorded species, whereas Plecotus austriacus had the most restricted distribution and lowest number of detected bat passes. We found species-specific and scale-dependent responses to land-use cover, with the activity of Pipistrellus maderensis being positively associated with landscape-scale shrubland, cropland and Laurisilva (primary forest) cover, whereas the activity of Nyctalus leisleri verrucosus and Plecotus austriacus were negatively influenced by Laurisilva and cropland cover, respectively. Furthermore, we found that altitude had a negative effect on the activity of Nyctalus leisleri verrucosus and Plecotus austriacus. This study provides the first insights into the effects of land-use type on Madeiran bats and showcases the great potential of low-cost bioacoustic detectors for island-wide bat surveys.

The role of agriculture in human infectious disease outbreaks

AbstractThis study uses the available data to explore the temporal and geographical patterns of infectious diseases and their links between human demography, human-induced land-use change, livestock and poultry expansion, and biodiversity loss. Over the last decades, the number of outbreaks of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases increased mostly in the intertropical zone. The increase in cropland, grassland, tree plantation, livestock, poultry, biodiversity at threat (using the Red List index) mostly occurred in the intertropical zone. Using structural equation modeling, significant relationships were observed between disease outbreaks, human demography, livestock (cattle and pigs), poultry (chickens), tree plantation and artificial land expansion as well as with increasing biodiversity at threat. While agricultural expansion is seen as a driver of biodiversity loss and potentially emerging infectious diseases, here we show that cropland and grassland expansion does not appear to enhance disease outbreaks directly, but indirectly and only for cropland on biodiversity loss. The links observed between infectious disease outbreaks, human demography, agriculture, livestock, urbanization and biodiversity should help rethink the global food system in ways that minimize the risk of infectious diseases while preserving biodiversity and contributing to Sustainable Goals.

Varved lake sediments as indicators of recent cultural eutrophication and hypolimnetic hypoxia in lakes

Varved sediments provide a unique opportunity to track the history of eutrophication and oxygen conditions in lacustrine environments. The well-preserved varves indicate hypoxic/anoxic conditions in hypolimnetic waters. Sediment records from three lakes (Dubie, Salno and Wąsoskie) located in northern Poland were investigated to determine the drivers that led to the development of varves in the topmost parts of the sediment profiles. We distinguished lithozones characterized by different sedimentary structures in each sediment core. Age-depth models for each sediment record were established using varve counting and isotope dating. Additionally, an independent marker of the Askja-1875 CE tephra supported the dating of sediments from Lake Wąsoskie. Ordination analysis applied to a set of geochemical data enabled identification of three groups of proxies representing the variability in deposition of different material within the lakes: i) terrestrial minerogenic material, ii) organic matter, and iii) carbonates. Our data show that the onset of varve preservation occurred asynchronously in the investigated lakes (from the late 19th century to the mid-20th century) and that the transition from homogeneous to varved sediments was gradual and occurred over several decades. These transformations were consistent with the variability of the proxies, indicating cultural eutrophication and showing a strong relationship with the history of human-induced land-use changes in the catchments. This study shows that well-preserved varves in the topmost sediments of many lakes are geological evidence of human activity. • Preservation of varves in recent lake sediments indicates local land-use transformations. • The onset of varve preservation is asynchronous in different lakes. • The transition zones between homogenous to varved sediments indicate gradual response of lakes.

Environmental variability at the margin of the South American monsoon system recorded by a high-resolution sediment record from Lagoa Dourada (South Brazil)

High-resolution geochemical and sedimentological data have been obtained for a lacustrine sediment record from Lagoa Dourada (South Brazil). Four distinctly different depositional processes were determined: (1) Suspension fallout of fine-grained minerogenic particles transferred via fluvial activity dominates the Early Holocene and relates to open grassland in the catchment area; (2) Activation of the karst hydrological system with deposition of massive sand layers indicates increased precipitation at the onset of the Middle Holocene; (3) Minerogenic sediments are replaced by organic deposition due to wetter climatic conditions with the expansion of woodlands in combination with release of dissolved nutrients due to enhanced pedogenesis during the Middle to Late Holocene; (4) Human-induced land-use change caused destabilization of soils in the catchment area with resulting cultural soil erosion between 1800 and 1950 CE. These depositional trends are linked to intensity variations of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS). Century-long climatic events detected by data of high-resolution XRF scanning confirm this relationship and provide signals of the 8.2 and 4.2 ka events as well as of the Little Ice Age. These events document increased rainfall with complex responses of the environmental system. Our SAMS-induced consequences of past hydroclimatic variability on the environment of South Brazil provide background information for better evaluating model projections of future climate change.

Climate and Land Use Change Effects on Sediment Production in a Dry Tropical Forest Catchment

Understanding the natural and anthropogenic drivers that influence erosion and sediment transport is a key prerequisite for adequate management of river basins, where, especially in tropical catchments, there are few direct measurements or modeling studies. Therefore, this study analyzed the effect of human-induced land-use changes and natural ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) related changes in rainfall patterns on soil erosion and catchment-scale sediment dynamics with the SEDD (Sediment Delivery Distributed) model. In the 393 km2 Tonusco river basin, representative of tropical, mountainous conditions, daily rainfall data were used to quantify changes in rainfall erosivity and satellite images for the evaluation of cover factor changes between 1977 and 2015. The final model combined soil loss, calculated by RUSLE, with a sediment routing-based delivery ratio, that was calibrated and validated with data from the sediment load recorded at the basin outlet. The results detected a great reduction of the vegetation cover in the catchment during the last decade of from 79.5 to 29.5%, and the influence of important runoff and erosion events linked to La Niña episodes. Soil erosion rates were locally very high, of over 120 Mg ha−1yr−1, and sediment yields were estimated at the range of 6.17–8.23 Mg ha−1yr−1.

Late-Holocene landscape evolution and human presence in the northern Danube delta (Chilia distributary lobes)

This paper documents the Late-Holocene environmental changes and human presence in the northern Danube delta using a multidisciplinary approach that combines geoscientific data with archaeological findings, historical texts, and maps. It follows the formation and progression of the Chilia distributary and the reconfiguration of socioeconomic activities. Sedimentary facies identified on five new cores by changes in texture properties, magnetic susceptibility, geochemistry, and macro- and microfauna composition together with the newly obtained chronology constrain the complex evolution of the Chilia branch as filling in a long-lasting bay and then of a giant lagoon (Thiagola) which covered most of the northern delta since the Old Danube lobe inception (ca. 7500 yrs BP) till modern Chilia development. It initiated during the Greek Antiquity (ca. 2500 yrs ar BP) at the delta apex, while in Roman times (ca. 1800 yrs BP) it pursued its slow flowing into the vast Thiagola Lagoon. The most dramatic transformations occurred in the last 800 years when the river passed east of the Chilia promontory, rapidly went through the present-day Matița-Merhei basin (several decades), and created its first open-sea outlet. Solid discharge increased in two distinct periods, once in the Middle Ages (ca. 750 yrs BP) and then in the Modern Period (ca. 150 yrs BP) due to human-induced land-use changes in the Danube watershed. The chronology of the cultural remains on the pre-deltaic Chilia promontory and the multiproxy analysis of a sediment core retrieved nearby downstream suggest the terrestrial connection of the island with the mainland in ancient times. The hitherto contended issue of the old Thiagola Lagoon and its location are redefined here, as are the original identifications of ancient and medieval toponyms and hydronyms, especially for Chilia-Licostomo, Byzantine, Genoese, Moldavian, Ottoman, and Russian trading point of great importance in the political and economic history of the Black Sea and neighboring regions.

Energy matters: Mitigating the impacts of future land expansion will require managing energy and extractive footprints

Understanding potential future patterns of human-induced land-use and land-cover change is critical to assessing and proactively managing the tradeoffs between development and the environment. Most global land-use change assessments, however, consider a narrow set of economic sectors, focusing primarily on agricultural and urban sectors. We present a global land-use change model that includes detailed energy and mining sectors (11 in total) in addition to agriculture and urban sectors. We find that energy and extractive sectors had a large expansion footprint (1.26 million km2) projected to 2050, which was nearly as large as the cropland expansion footprint (1.54 million km2) and larger than the urban expansion footprint (0.34 million km2). Moreover, energy and mining expansion account for nearly 80% of all projected expansion into the world's most intact natural lands, suggesting that these sectors play an outsized role in threats to biodiversity and environmental protection. Additionally, we find substantial shifts in the ranking of countries in relation to their vulnerability of land conversion when we accounted for energy and mining footprints alongside agricultural and urban footprints. Our results suggest that meeting resource demands, while maintaining social and environmental benefits provided by natural systems, will require reducing consumption and increasing efficiency in resource use alongside improved development siting and mitigation practices.

MIROC-INTEG-LAND version 1: a global biogeochemical land surface model with human water management, crop growth, and land-use change

Abstract. Future changes in the climate system could have significant impacts on the natural environment and human activities, which in turn affect changes in the climate system. In the interaction between natural and human systems under climate change conditions, land use is one of the elements that play an essential role. On the one hand, future climate change will affect the availability of water and food, which may impact land-use change. On the other hand, human-induced land-use change can affect the climate system through biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects. To investigate these interrelationships, we developed MIROC-INTEG-LAND (MIROC INTEGrated LAND surface model version 1), an integrated model that combines the land surface component of global climate model MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) with water resources, crop production, land ecosystem, and land-use models. The most significant feature of MIROC-INTEG-LAND is that the land surface model that describes the processes of the energy and water balance, human water management, and crop growth incorporates a land use decision-making model based on economic activities. In MIROC-INTEG-LAND, spatially detailed information regarding water resources and crop yields is reflected in the prediction of future land-use change, which cannot be considered in the conventional integrated assessment models. In this paper, we introduce the details and interconnections of the submodels of MIROC-INTEG-LAND, compare historical simulations with observations, and identify various interactions between the submodels. By evaluating the historical simulation, we have confirmed that the model reproduces the observed states well. The future simulations indicate that changes in climate have significant impacts on crop yields, land use, and irrigation water demand. The newly developed MIROC-INTEG-LAND could be combined with atmospheric and ocean models to develop an integrated earth system model to simulate the interactions among coupled natural–human earth system components.

Mapping and dynamic analysis of mangrove forest during 2009–2019 using landsat–5 and sentinel–2 satellite data along Odisha Coast

Mangrove forests in India are situated along the tidal sea edge of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal which is under threat from both natural and human-induced land-use changes. The multi-temporal satellite data and image processing techniques are usually employed to monitor changes in vegetation dynamics. In this study, the decadal changes of mangrove forests were accomplished along the Odisha coast, India using the Landsat–5 and Sentinel–2A satellite data for 2009 and 2019, respectively. The satellite data were obtained and processed in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. This study aims to derive the spatial extent of mangrove using the high-resolution satellite data and support vector machine (SVM) classifier. The result reveals that the total mangrove extent increased from 222.43 km2 (2009) to 252.47 km2 (2019) which indicates an increase in area by 30.04 km2 (or 13.5%) during the last one decade. The highest increase in mangrove area was in Hatamudia Reserve Forest (15.54 km2) and coastal belt of Bhadrak (9.46 km2) followed by Bhitarkanika National Park in Kendrapara (3.05 km2), Baranaula and Akumi River estuary in Jagatsinghpur (1.12 km2), and Subarnarekha River intertidal zone in Baleshwar (0.87 km2). A significant increase in mangrove forests occurred due to plantation, awareness, restoration, and coastal zone management plan. This study demonstrates the potential of high-resolution satellite data to produce an accurate map in monitoring changes in mangrove forests at a decadal time-scale by using the GEE platform which can help in planning conservation strategies and priorities.

Greening and Browning Trends of Vegetation in India and Their Responses to Climatic and Non-Climatic Drivers

It is imperative to know the spatial distribution of vegetation trends in India and its responses to both climatic and non-climatic drivers because many ecoregions are vulnerable to global climate change. Here we employed the NDVI3g satellite data over the span of 35 years (1981/82–2015) to estimate vegetation trends and corresponding climatic variables trends (i.e., precipitation, temperature, solar radiation and soil moisture) by using the Mann–Kendall test (τ) and the Theil–Sen median trend. Analysis was performed separately for the two focal periods—(i) the earlier period (1981/82–2000) and (ii) later period (2000–2015)—because many ecoregions experienced more warming after 2000 than the 1980s and 1990s. Our results revealed that a prominent large-scale greening trend (47% of area) of vegetation continued from the earlier period to the later period (80% of area) across the northwestern Plain and Central India. Despite climatologically drier regions, the stronger greening trend was also evident over croplands which was attributed to moisture-induced greening combined with cooling trends of temperature. However, greening trends of vegetation and croplands diminished (i.e., from 84% to 40% of area in kharif season), especially over the southern peninsula, including the west-central area. Such changes were mostly attributed to warming trends and declined soil moisture trends, a phenomenon known as temperature-induced moisture stress. This effect has an adverse impact on vegetation growth in the Himalayas, Northeast India, the Western Ghats and the southern peninsula, which was further exaggerated by human-induced land-use change. Therefore, it can be concluded that vegetation trend analysis from NDVI3g data provides vital information on two mechanisms (i.e., temperature-induced moisture stress and moisture-induced greening) operating in India. In particular, the temperature-induced moisture stress is alarming, and may be exacerbated in the future under accelerated warming as it may have potential implications on forest and agriculture ecosystems, including societal impacts (e.g., food security, employment, wealth). These findings are very valuable to policymakers and climate change awareness-raising campaigns at the national level.

Changes in demand and supply of ecosystem services under scenarios of future land use in Vorarlberg, Austria

Ecosystem services (ES) are highly impacted by human-induced land-use change. Progressive urbanization and agricultural land abandonment in Western Europe necessitate assessments of future land-change impacts on ES to ensure sustainable service management. The present study aims at evaluating future demand and supply of three key services (flood protection, nearby recreation and biodiversity) in the mountainous region of Vorarlberg, Austria. We mapped the ES for the referenced time step 2016 and two scenarios for 2050, assuming the continuation of current land-change trends and pressure on landscape development. Results for the referenced landscape in 2016 show the highest ES supply for intermediate levels, while ES supply was low in the lowlands and valley bottoms and in high-elevation areas. We found a high positive correlation of ES with the distribution of forested areas. In contrast, service demand was highest in low-elevation areas and decreased with increasing elevation. This indicates that densely settled and intensively used agricultural areas currently suffer from ES undersupply. The projected future development of land use showed an increase in both supply and demand of the selected ES. The overall service supply increased more than the respective demand due to some reforestation of open land. As forests were found to be important synergistic areas for overall service provision, we expect decreasing demand on related services. Locally, demand was found to exceed the supply of ES, especially in the densely populated Rhine valley- requiring further policy interventions. Such ES-related information may contribute to regional policy making and ensure the long-term provision of ESs for future generations.