Human-driven Environmental Changes Research Articles

Breeding ecology of a high-altitude shorebird in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

AbstractShorebirds are facing global decline as a consequence of anthropogenic effects that include habitat loss, increased predation and climate change. Although some shorebirds are extensively studied, basic data on life history, ecology and behaviour are still lacking especially for populations where climate change is expected to have severe effects. Here, we provide the first detailed investigation of a high-altitude nesting shorebird in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, the Tibetan Sand Plover Charadrius atrifrons. This alpine-breeding Central-Asian species recently split from the Lesser Sand Plover Charadrius mongolus that breeds in Eastern Siberia. Understanding the fundamental ecology and behaviour of alpine-breeding shorebirds is important for predicting the challenges these high-altitude species will face given the human-driven environmental changes that are likely to take place in these habitats. Here, we show that Tibetan Sand Plovers in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau have a short breeding season from mid-May to late-June, and exhibit social monogamy and bi-parental care of the clutch. Since they have low hatching success (18 of 57 nests hatched) and no chance of renesting, maintaining population size in the future may pose a challenge. To provide essential information for protection of this species in a vulnerable habitat, further demographic studies are warranted to better understand how climate change will mould adaptations of this specialised high-altitude species to their environment.

Leading the way – presence of brown bear <i>Ursus arctos</i>, lynx <i>Lynx lynx</i> and grey wolf <i>Canis lupus</i> underlines the integrity and corridor function of the upper Neretva Valley in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Despite its connecting character to the Sutjeska National Park in the North-East, the course of the upper Neretva (Ulog and Borač valley) in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), has to date not been an area of focus for carnivore research. With the aim of contributing to an improved understanding of the present distribution of large and endangered carnivores in this area, a field survey was conducted during the Neretva Science Week 2022. Opportunistic data collection was carried out along a predefined road transect (20 km) and six line transects (13 km) tracked by foot. Additionally, reports of mammal signs for six corresponding research sites along the Neretva were registered. Altogether, at least 15 mammal species could be distinguished. From the identified carnivores, four are listed in Annex II of the Habitats Directive. Furthermore, the signs of lynx presence, in addition to brown bear and grey wolf, highlight the connectivity value of the upper Neretva in its current state. Based on information from local practitioners, the main threats to large carnivores are hunting pressure and a negative perception as competitors. A likely decline in habitat quality and fragmentation, due to the planned hydropower plants expansion and logging activities, exacerbate these threats. Consequently, further systematic monitoring is recommended to assess the possible impact of human driven environmental changes.

Seasonally mediated niche partitioning in a vertically compressed pelagic predator guild.

Niche partitioning among closely related, sympatric species is a fundamental concept in ecology, and its mechanisms are of broad interest for understanding ecosystem functioning and predicting the impacts of human-driven environmental change. However, identifying mechanisms by which top marine predators partition available resources has been especially challenging given the difficulty of quantifying resource use of large pelagic animals. In the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP), three large, highly mobile and ecologically similar pelagic predators (blue marlin (Makaira nigricans), black marlin (Istiompax indica) and sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus)) coexist in a vertically compressed habitat. To evaluate each species' ecological niche, we leveraged a decade of recreational fisheries data, multi-year satellite tracking with high-resolution dive data, and stable isotope analysis. Fishery interaction and telemetry-based three-dimensional seasonal utilization distributions suggested high spatial and temporal overlap among species; however, seasonal and diel variability in diving behaviour produced spatial partitioning, leading to low trophic overlap among species. Expanding oxygen minimum zones will reduce the available vertical habitat within predator guilds, likely leading to increases in interspecific competition. Thus, understanding the mechanisms of habitat partitioning among predators in the vertically compressed ETP can provide insight into how predators in other ocean regions may respond to vertically limited habitats.

Urbanization, climate and species traits shape mammal communities from local to continental scales.

Human-driven environmental changes shape ecological communities from local to global scales. Within cities, landscape-scale patterns and processes and species characteristics generally drive local-scale wildlife diversity. However, cities differ in their structure, species pools, geographies and histories, calling into question the extent to which these drivers of wildlife diversity are predictive at continental scales. In partnership with the Urban Wildlife Information Network, we used occurrence data from 725 sites located across 20 North American cities and a multi-city, multi-species occupancy modelling approach to evaluate the effects of ecoregional characteristics and mammal species traits on the urbanization-diversity relationship. Among 37 native terrestrial mammal species, regional environmental characteristics and species traits influenced within-city effects of urbanization on species occupancy and community composition. Species occupancy and diversity were most negatively related to urbanization in the warmer, less vegetated cities. Additionally, larger-bodied species were most negatively impacted by urbanization across North America. Our results suggest that shifting climate conditions could worsen the effects of urbanization on native wildlife communities, such that conservation strategies should seek to mitigate the combined effects of a warming and urbanizing world.

Ideas and perspectives: Land–ocean connectivity through groundwater

Abstract. For millennia, humans have gravitated towards coastlines for their resource potential and as geopolitical centres for global trade. A basic requirement ensuring water security for coastal communities relies on a delicate balance between the supply and demand of potable water. The interaction between freshwater and saltwater in coastal settings is, therefore, complicated by both natural and human-driven environmental changes at the land–sea interface. In particular, ongoing sea-level rise, warming and deoxygenation might exacerbate such perturbations. In this context, an improved understanding of the nature and variability of groundwater fluxes across the land–sea continuum is timely yet remains out of reach. The flow of terrestrial groundwater across the coastal transition zone and the extent of freshened groundwater below the present-day seafloor are receiving increased attention in marine and coastal sciences because they likely represent a significant yet highly uncertain component of (bio)geochemical budgets and because of the emerging interest in the potential use of offshore freshened groundwater as a resource. At the same time, “reverse” groundwater flux from offshore to onshore is of prevalent socio-economic interest, as terrestrial groundwater resources are continuously pressured by over-pumping and seawater intrusion in many coastal regions worldwide. An accurate assessment of the land–ocean connectivity through groundwater and its potential responses to future anthropogenic activities and climate change will require a multidisciplinary approach combining the expertise of geophysicists, hydrogeologists, (bio)geochemists and modellers. Such joint activities will lay the scientific basis for better understanding the role of groundwater in societally relevant issues such as climate change, pollution and the environmental status of the coastal oceans within the framework of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Here, we present our perspectives on future research directions to better understand land–ocean connectivity through groundwater, including the spatial distributions of the essential hydrogeological parameters, highlighting technical and scientific developments and briefly discussing the societal relevance of that connectivity in rapidly changing coastal oceans.

Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world.

Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world.

Bobcats in southern California respond to urbanization at multiple scales

Urban areas impact wildlife populations through multiple pathways, notably habitat fragmentation and degradation. Wildlife can respond to development and other human-driven environmental change at multiple scales, from the individual to the population level, ultimately driving biodiversity patterns and processes in built and adjacent natural landscapes. However, multiple scales of space use are rarely considered in an integrated framework. Focusing on bobcats, a species associated with intermediate sensitivity to development, we explored factors affecting multi-scale space use and population density across San Diego County, a region in southern California characterized by a pronounced development gradient. We used remote camera data and GPS collar data in an integrated spatial capture-recapture + resource selection function approach. At the individual scale, bobcats selected against developed areas, while at the population level, bobcat densities were higher in habitat patches surrounded by development, suggesting that bobcat populations in these areas may be experiencing home range pile-up, a manifestation of the fence effect. Our results provide an integrated multi-scale view of the impacts of human-modified landscapes on wildlife, confirming that research on space use at the individual and population levels should be considered jointly to advance understanding of the mechanisms driving wildlife response to development. This approach has promise to improve conservation and management efforts for urban wildlife.

Comparative capitalisms in the Anthropocene: a research agenda for green transition

ABSTRACT Climate change and broader Anthropogenic environmental risks pose existential threats to humanity. Human-driven environmental change has come to be understood through the concept of the ‘Anthropocene’. Anthropocene risks demonstrate that existing fossil-fuel intensive and growth-oriented capitalist development are unsustainable. The urgent need to transition towards greener forms of development is widely recognised. Comparative Political Economy (CPE) should be well placed to guide and evaluate green transition, yet it typifies a wider disconnect between political economy and environment. This article seeks to understand and transcend that disconnect. Developing a critical genealogy of CPE's post-war emergence, the article examines CPE's paradigmatic evolution and fitness for grappling with the Anthropocene. It argues that dominant theoretical paradigms (Varieties of Capitalism and Growth Models approaches) are grounded in a ‘nature/society’ dualism that treats national economic models as environmentally disembedded and causally independent from the Earth System. Economic growth is uncritically elevated as a dominant comparative metric, normative aspiration, and policy objective for capitalist development. These characteristics limit the capacity to engage with green transition. Embedding CPE within ecological considerations, the article selectively repurposes the field's existing conceptual insights to develop hypotheses concerning comparative capitalisms and green transition in the Anthropocene.

Serum biochemistry suggests a physiological response to environmental stress in a native urban Eastern Gray Squirrel (<i>Sciurus carolinensis</i>) population

Urban wildlife populations experience human-driven environmental changes that can be both beneficial and detrimental to individual health. We measured body condition and serum chemistry (electrolyte levels, markers of kidney and liver function, protein, glucose, and cholesterol) in a native urban and rural population of Eastern Gray Squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) to assess whether we could detect physiological responses to environmental stressors or dietary differences. We found no differences in body condition between habitats and no evidence of malnutrition at either site. However, urban squirrels had higher blood glucose, lower potassium, phosphorus, chloride, and albumin:globulin ratios. These results align with previous findings of increased dietary sugar in cities and suggest that urban populations of gray squirrels are under greater environmental stress than rural populations, providing future directions for studying physiological responses to urbanization.

Multidecadal monitoring highlighted long-term stability of protected assemblages within a Mediterranean marine reserve

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are at the core of management and conservation plans aimed at counteracting the ongoing widespread degradation of marine ecosystems. Although the outcomes of protection in enhancing marine biodiversity and restoring populations of exploited species are widely recognized, the putative effect of MPAs in increasing the resilience of marine communities and ecosystems is still underexplored. In this study, long-term data from a no-take area of a Mediterranean MPA and unprotected locations were used to investigate the effects of full protection on the temporal stability of sessile assemblages on shallow subtidal rocky reefs. Results highlighted that assemblages within the no-take area exhibited a more consistent structure over 20 years of study, whereas a significantly larger temporal variability characterized assemblages at the unprotected locations. Reduced levels of human pressure and stabilizing processes related to the re-establishment of the integrity of trophic networks within the MPA could underlie the observed patterns. Assessing whether MPAs may improve the ability of marine communities to absorb disturbance, from local to large scale sources, is essential to ascertain their contribution to future adaptive conservation strategies in the face of global change. This study provided evidence that MPAs, if well managed, can represent an effective tool to smooth fluctuations in the structure of marine communities, thus potentially reducing their vulnerability to natural and human-driven environmental changes.

Effects of ozone air pollution on crop pollinators and pollination

Human driven environmental changes increase the concentrations of polluting reactive compounds in the troposphere, such as ozone and nitrogen oxides. These changes lead to biodiversity losses and alter plant physiology and plant-pollinator interactions, essential for pollination services, with potential consequences for agricultural production. Here we used 133 unique sampling events from NW Europe to investigate how air pollution (ozone and nitrogen oxides) and other sources of nitrogen is related to pollinator visitation rate and their contribution to agricultural production, also considering possible interactive effects with landscape quality and pesticide input. We showed that ozone modulates the effect of pesticide exposure and temperature on crop pollinators, increasing the probability of negative impacts on crop pollination. Indeed, when ozone levels are highest, the strength of the effect of pesticide on pollinators is more than double then when ozone levels are intermediate. This indicates that air pollution should be considered in management plans and policies aiming to safeguard biodiversity and promote more sustainable food production practices.

Climate change affects bird nesting phenology: Comparing contemporary field and historical museum nesting records.

Global climate change impacts species and ecosystems in potentially harmful ways. For migratory bird species, earlier spring warm-up could lead to a mismatch between nesting activities and food availability. CO2 provides a useful proxy for temperature and an environmental indicator of climate change when temperature data are not available for an entire time series. Our objectives were to (a) examine nesting phenology over time; (b) determine how nesting phenology relates to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration; and (c) demonstrate the usefulness of historical museum collections combined with modern observations for trend analyses. We assessed changes in nesting dates of 72 bird species in the Upper Midwest of the United States by comparing contemporary lay dates with those obtained from archived, historical museum nest records over a 143-year period (1872-2015). Species-specific changes in lay date per one unit change in the CO2 residual ranged from -0.75 (95% CI: -1.57 to -0.10) to 0.45 (95% CI: -0.29 to 1.43). Overall, lay dates advanced ~10days over the 143-year period. Resident, short-distance migrants and long-distance migrants lay dates advanced by ~15, 18 and 16days on average respectively. Twenty-four species (33.3%) significantly advanced, one (1.4%) significantly delayed and we failed to detect an advance or delay in lay date for 47 species (65.3%). Overall mean advance in first lay date (for the species that have significantly advanced laying date) was 25.1days (min: 10.7, max: 49.9). Our study highlights the scientific importance of both data gathering and archiving through time to understand phenological change. The detailed archived information reported by egg collectors provide the early data of our study. As with studies of egg-shell thinning and pesticide exposure, our use of these data illustrates another scientific utility of egg collections that these pioneer naturalists never imagined. As museums archive historical data, these locations are also ideal candidates to store contemporary field data as it is collected. Together, such information will provide the ability to track, understand and perhaps predict responses to human-driven environmental change.

Telomeres and anthropogenic disturbances in wildlife: Asystematic review and meta-analysis.

Human-driven environmental changes are affecting wildlife across the globe. These challenges do not influence species or populations to the same extent and therefore a comprehensive evaluation of organismal health is needed to determine their ultimate impact. Evidence suggests that telomeres (the terminal chromosomal regions) are sensitive to environmental conditions and have been posited as a surrogate for animal health and fitness. Evaluation of their use in an applied ecological context is still scarce. Here, using information from molecular and occupational biomedical studies, we aim to provide ecologists and evolutionary biologists with an accessible synthesis of the links between human disturbances and telomere length. In addition, we perform a systematic review and meta-analysis on studies measuring telomere length in wild/wild-derived animals facing anthropogenic disturbances. Despite the relatively small number of studies to date, our meta-analysis revealed a significant small negative association between disturbances and telomere length (-0.092 [-0.153, -0.031]; n=28; k=159). Yet, our systematic review suggests that the use of telomeres as a biomarker to understand the anthropogenic impact on wildlife is limited. We propose some research avenues that will help to broadly evaluate their suitability: (i) further causal studies on the link between human disturbances and telomeres; (ii) investigating the organismal implications, in terms of fitness and performance, of a given telomere length in anthropogenically disturbed scenarios; and (iii) better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of telomere dynamics. Future studies in these facets will help to ultimately determine their role as markers of health and fitness in wildlife facing anthropogenic disturbances.

Vertebrate population trends are influenced by interactions between land use, climatic position, habitat loss and climate change.

Rapid human-driven environmental changes are impacting animal populations around the world. Currently, land-use and climate change are two of the biggest pressures facing biodiversity. However, studies investigating the impacts of these pressures on population trends often do not consider potential interactions between climate and land-use change. Further, a population's climatic position (how close the ambient temperature and precipitation conditions are to the species' climatic tolerance limits) is known to influence responses to climate change but has yet to be investigated with regard to its influence on land-use change responses over time. Consequently, important variations across species' ranges in responses to environmental changes may be being overlooked. Here, we combine data from the Living Planet and BioTIME databases to carry out a global analysis exploring the impacts of land use, habitat loss, climatic position, climate change and the interactions between these variables, on vertebrate population trends. By bringing these datasets together, we analyse over 7,000 populations across 42 countries. We find that land-use change is interacting with climate change and a population's climatic position to influence rates of population change. Moreover, features of a population's local landscape (such as surrounding land cover) play important roles in these interactions. For example, populations in agricultural land uses where maximum temperatures were closer to their hot thermal limit, declined at faster rates when there had also been rapid losses in surrounding semi-natural habitat. The complex interactions between these variables on populations highlight the importance of taking intraspecific variation and interactions between local and global pressures into account. Understanding how drivers of change are interacting and impacting populations, and how this varies spatially, is critical if we are to identify populations at risk, predict species' responses to future environmental changes and produce suitable conservation strategies.

Consequences of changing water clarity on the fish and fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes

Human-driven environmental change underlies recent changes in water clarity in many of the world’s great lakes, yet our understanding of the consequences of these changes on the fish and fisheries they support remains incomplete. Herein, we offer a framework to organize current knowledge, guide future research, and help fisheries managers understand how water clarity can affect their valued populations. Emphasizing Laurentian Great Lakes findings where possible, we describe how changing water clarity can directly affect fish populations and communities by altering exposure to ultraviolet radiation, foraging success, predation risk, reproductive behavior, or territoriality. We also discuss how changing water clarity can affect fisheries harvest and assessment through effects on fisher behavior and sampling efficiency (i.e., catchability). Finally, we discuss whether changing water clarity can affect understudied aspects of fishery performance, including economic and community benefits. We conclude by identifying generalized predictions and discuss their implications for priority research questions for the Laurentian Great Lakes. Even though the motivation for this work was regional, the breadth of the review and generality of the framework are readily transferable to other freshwater and marine habitats.

Ambient climate determines the directional trend of community stability under warming and grazing.

Changes in ecological processes over time in ambient treatments are often larger than the responses to manipulative treatments in climate change experiments. However, the impacts of human-driven environmental changes on the stability of natural grasslands have been typically assessed by comparing differences between manipulative plots and reference plots. Little is known about whether or how ambient climate regulates the effects of manipulative treatments and their underlying mechanisms. We collected two datasets, one a 36-year long-term observational dataset from 1983 to 2018, and the other a 10-year manipulative asymmetric warming and grazing experiment using infrared heaters with moderate grazing from 2006 to 2015 in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau. The 36-year observational dataset shows that there was a nonlinear response of community stability to ambient temperature with a positive relationship between them due to an increase in ambient temperature in the first 25years and then a decrease in ambient temperature thereafter. Warming and grazing decreased community stability with experiment duration through an increase in legume cover and a decrease in species asynchrony, which was due to the decreasing background temperature through time during the 10-year experiment period. Moreover, the temperature sensitivity of community stability was higher under the ambient treatment than under the manipulative treatments. Therefore, our results suggested that ambient climate may control the directional trend of community stability while manipulative treatments may determine the temperature sensitivity of the response of community stability to climate relative to the ambient treatment. Our study emphasizes the importance of the context dependency of the response of community stability to human-driven environmental changes.

The European palaeoecological record of Swedish red-listed beetles

Recent global changes have triggered a biodiversity crisis. However, climate fluctuations have always influenced biodiversity and humans have affected species distributions since prehistoric times. Conservation palaeobiology is a developing field that aims to understand the long-term dynamics of such interactions by studying the geohistorical records in a conservation perspective. Case studies exist for vertebrates and plants, but insects have largely been overlooked so far. Here, we analysed the current red-listed beetle species (Coleoptera) in Sweden and investigated their occurrence and representation in the European Quaternary fossil record. Fossil data currently exist for one third of the Swedish red-listed beetle species. All the red-list conservation classes are represented in the fossil record, which may allow for comparative studies. We found significantly different representations in the fossil records among taxonomic groups and ecological traits, which may depend on the fossil depositional and sampling environments and variation in how difficult species are to identify. Species that are today associated with modern urban environments were mostly found in Quaternary sites with archaeological human settlements, reflecting early human-driven environmental change. Combining modern and fossil insect species data for biodiversity conservation needs to be undertaken with care, and attention paid to biases in both modern and palaeo-data. Nevertheless, this approach opens new opportunities for conservation biology by providing a millennial-scale perspective on biodiversity change, including consideration of the long-term dynamics of species range shifts, species invasions and regional extinctions under changing climates.

Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy Analysis to Predict Diet Composition of a Mountain Ungulate Species.

Simple SummaryUngulates are characterized by their ability to modify or maintain habitats through their impact on plant species composition and the structure of vegetation. Assessing the diet composition of ungulates is therefore important to understand their role in the ecosystem integrity and to develop monitoring and population management plans. The diet composition of free-ranging ungulates has most often been assessed by time-consuming and cost-intensive approaches such as the direct observation of animals, chemical analysis, molecular approaches or microhistological analysis of fecal samples. Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy analysis would be a quick, economic and non-destructive alternative to assess diet composition using fecal samples. In this work, we evaluated the use of this spectroscopy method to assess the diet composition of the Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica pyrenaica), a medium-size subalpine ungulate with a broad dietary niche. Our results support the reliability of the fecal spectroscopy analysis to monitor diet composition of free-ranging ungulates.The diet composition of ungulates is important to understand not only their impact on vegetation, but also to understand the consequences of natural and human-driven environmental changes on the foraging behavior of these mammals. In this work, we evaluated the use of near infrared reflectance spectroscopy analysis (NIRS), a quick, economic and non-destructive method, to assess the diet composition of the Pyrenean chamois Rupicapra pyrenaica pyrenaica. Fecal samples (n = 192) were collected from two chamois populations in the French and Spanish Pyrenees. Diet composition was initially assessed by fecal cuticle microhistological analysis (CMA) and categorized into four functional groups, namely: woody, herbaceous, graminoid and Fabaceae plants. Regressions of modified partial least squares and several combinations of scattering correction and derivative treatments were tested. The results showed that models based on the second derivative processing obtained the higher determination coefficient for woody, herbaceous and graminoid plants (R2CAL, coefficient of determination in calibration, ranged from 0.86 to 0.91). The Fabaceae group, however, was predicted with lower accuracy (R2CAL = 0.71). Even though an agreement between NIRS and CMA methods was confirmed by a Bland–Altman analysis, confidence limits of agreement differed by up to 25%. Our results support the viability of fecal NIRS analysis to study spatial and temporal variations of the Pyrenean chamois’ diets in summer and winter when differences in the consumption of woody and annual plants are the greatest. This new use for the NIRS technique would be useful to assess the consequences of global change on the feeding behavior of this mountain ungulate and also in other ungulate counterparts.

Regional disparity in extinction risk: Comparison of disjunct plant genera between eastern Asia and eastern North America.

Climate and land cover changes are increasing threats to biodiversity globally. However, potentially varying biotic sensitivity is a major source of uncertainty for translating environmental changes to extinction risks. To reduce this uncertainty, we assessed how extinction risks will be affected by future human-driven environmental changes, focusing on 554 species from 52 disjunct plant genera between eastern Asia (EAS) and eastern North America (ENA) to control for differences in environmental sensitivity at the genus level. Species distribution models were used to estimate and compare the vulnerability of species in disjunct genera between the two regions under two climate and land cover change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) in the 2070s, allowing to assess the effects of differences in climate and land cover pressures. Compared with ENA, stronger pressures from climate and land cover changes along with smaller range sizes in EAS translate into a larger number and proportion of species in disjunct genera becoming threatened by the 2070s. These regional differences are more pronounced under a best-case climate scenario (RCP2.6), illustrating that strong climate change (RCP8.5) may override any regional buffer capacities. The main variables determining extinction risks differed between the two continental regions, with annual temperature range and cropland expansion being important in EAS, and annual precipitation being important in ENA. These results suggest that disparities in regional exposure to anthropogenic environmental changes may cause congeneric species with relatively similar sensitivity to have different future risks of extinction. Moreover, the findings highlight the context-specific nature of anthropogenic effects on biodiversity and the importance of making region-specific policies for conservation and restoration in response to the intensifying global changes.

In search for the hotspots of Disease X: A biogeographic approach to mapping the predictive risk of WHO's blueprint priority diseases

Background: Current trends of emerging infectious disease outbreaks (EIDs) forecast impending global epidemiological crises. Human-driven environmental changes, including climate change along with overpopulation and global travel, have been contributing to EIDs outbreaks in many developing countries. The subject has attracted increasing attention with the recent Ebola and Zika epidemics, which highlights the potential threats to human and animal health, social stability, and global trade and economy. The blueprint priority diseases (BPDs) is a list established by the World Health Organization of ten zoonotic diseases, which are in urgent need of research. We proposed mapping the predictive risk of the BPDs using spatial Bayesian models and species distribution modelling of the outbreaks following the year 2000. The aim is to provide a global perspective, measure predictive risks, and evaluate the use of biogeography on predicting diseases outbreaks. We also proposed disease biogeography as a tool for identifying the potential hotspots for Disease X listed in the BPDs. Methods and materials: Data of the observed outbreaks (2000–2018) were obtained from promed mail and WHO archives. Bioclimatic covariates and altitude data were extracted from ‘worldclim’ (R package dismo) and the 2017 land cover data (MODIS satellite imagery). We constructed species distribution models including bioclim, maxent and Bayesian models with absence data generated to map the predictive risk of future outbreaks. Results: Most of the predicted geographic risk extent estimated from the observed data of MERS, Marburg Virus Disease and Rift Valley fever were found to occur in arid and across the Middle East and Eastern regions of Africa. The predictive extent of Lassa fever and Ebola Virus Disease consisted of regions in the Western and Central Africa, predominated by humid rainforests. We found a significant correlation between the disease extent and the distribution of confirmed and suspected biological reservoirs and also with deforestation. The AUC of the generated models was maintained over 0.9 (average - 0.978). Conclusion: Biogeography is a robust tool in forecasting hotspots of EIDs outbreaks. We will also complete the analysis by aggregating the common risk factors of the predicted EIDs to characterize hotspots for an unknown Disease X.