_ In June 2019, before the seismic shift brought by the OpenAI revolution, I authored a JPT guest editorial on the oil and gas industry's digitalization journey. I emphasized the transformative roles of the industrial internet of things (IIoT), cloud computing, and artificial intelligence (AI). Now, reflecting on that editorial from the vantage point of 2025, it is remarkable to witness how many predictions have materialized and how the industry has evolved beyond expectations. A Sudden Acceleration: The AI Shockwave in Oil and Gas For nearly 3 decades, technological advancements in the oil and gas industry followed an evolutionary trajectory. Each breakthrough—2D and 3D seismic imaging, horizontal and directional drilling, semisubmersibles, and permanent sensors such as microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) and nanotechnology—built upon prior successes, driving incremental gains in efficiency and recovery. The ability to acquire real-time downhole data has ushered in the "sense-compute-act" era, fundamentally transforming reservoir management. However, these advances followed a measured pace, allowing engineers time to integrate new methods with traditional workflows. Then, in a span of just 20 months, the industry was hit by a technological shockwave. The AI revolution—accelerated by OpenAI’s breakthroughs—upended long-held paradigms. No longer do companies rely solely on downhole measurements from oilfield service providers. Instead, they now train AI models on decades of historical data to predict maximum efficient rate (MER) and expected ultimate recovery (EUR). The “old world” of deterministic modeling is rapidly giving way to probabilistic AI-driven decision making. This abrupt shift is not just about automation; it is redefining the fundamental principles of reservoir management. The industry finds itself grappling with uncertainties inherent in AI predictions, challenging engineers to place trust in models that are not explicitly programmed but instead learn patterns from vast data sets. The rate of technological change is outpacing our ability to fully comprehend its implications—a stark contrast to the controlled evolution of past innovations. From Data Collection to Intelligent Systems: The Rise of Metaknowledge In 2019, I introduced the concept of metaknowledge—understanding what we know and don’t know—as more critical than primary knowledge—the ability to discern what we know and what we do not. Today, this has become an essential component of digital transformation. AI no longer just processes data—it determines which data is meaningful, distinguishing signal from noise within the vast repositories of information. Where traditional methods relied on human-driven interpretations, AI models now identify patterns and anomalies at scales beyond human capability. The ability to extract actionable insights from billions of data points has eliminated many inefficiencies in field operations. More importantly, it has reshaped the role of engineers, shifting them from manual interpreters to strategic AI curators who validate and refine machine-generated insights.
Read full abstract