Hostage Incidents Research Articles

An Economic Perspective on Terrorism and Counterterrorism

ABSTRACT This occasional-series paper offers an economic perspective on the study of terrorism and counterterrorism. At the outset, the paper identifies how the economic perspective enriches terrorism analysis by stressing rational choice of myriad agents (e.g., the terrorist groups, their supporters, and targeted governments) subject to constraints. Game-theoretic strategic rational choice allows allied and adversarial agents to incorporate the responses of others into their interdependent choices. Economists’ theoretical paradigms are judged by their success in predicting agents’ behavior and informing effective policies. Since 9/11, many political scientists, operation researchers, sociologists, and others applied economic methods to their study of terrorism. To illustrate selected applications of the economic approach, the paper considers findings from economic studies on bargaining and making concessions during hostage incidents, judging the effectiveness of counterterrorism strategies, identifying the economic consequences of terrorism, and finding adequate identification strategies in empirical studies. Future directions and some shortcomings of the economic approach complete the study.

50 Years of Mass-Fatality Terrorist Attacks: A Retrospective Study of Target Demographics, Modalities, and Injury Patterns to Better Inform Future Counter-Terrorism Medicine Preparedness and Response.

Terrorism-related deaths have fallen year after year since peaking in 2014, and whilst the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted terrorist organizations capacity to conduct attacks and limited their potential targets, counter-terrorism experts believe this is a short-term phenomenon with serious concerns of an escalation of violence and events in the near future. This study aims to provide an epidemiological analysis of all terrorism-related mass-fatality events (>100 fatalities) sustained between 1970-2019, including historical attack strategies, modalities used, and target selection, to better inform health care responders on the injury types they are likely to encounter. The Global Terrorism Database (GTD) was searched for all attacks between the years 1970-2019. Attacks met inclusion criteria if they fulfilled the three terrorism-related criteria as set by the GTD codebook. Ambiguous events were excluded. State-sponsored terrorist events do not meet the codebook's definition, and as such, are excluded from the study. Data analysis and subsequent discussions were focused on events causing 100+ fatal injuries (FI). In total, 168,003 events were recorded between the years 1970-2019. Of these, 85,225 (50.73%) events recorded no FI; 67,356 (40.10%) events recorded 1-10 FI; 5,791 (3.45%) events recorded 11-50 FI; 405 (0.24%) events recorded 51-100 FI; 149 (0.09%) events recorded over 100 FI; and 9,077 (5.40%) events recorded unknown number of FI.Also, 96,905 events recorded no non-fatal injuries (NFI); 47,425 events recorded 1-10 NFI; 8,313 events recorded 11-50 NFI; 867 events recorded 51-100 NFI; 360 events recorded over 100 NFI; and 14,130 events recorded unknown number of NFI. Private citizens and property were the primary targets in 67 of the 149 high-FI events (100+ FI). Of the 149 events recording 100+ FI, 46 (30.87%) were attributed to bombings/explosions as the primary attack modality, 43 (28.86%) were armed assaults, 23 (15.44%) hostage incidents, two (1.34%) were facility/infrastructure attacks (incendiary), one (0.67%) was an unarmed assault, seven (4.70%) had unknown modalities, and 27 (18.12%) were mixed modality attacks. The most common attack modality causing 100+ FI was the use of bombs and explosions (30.87%), followed by armed assaults (28.86%). Private citizens and properties (44.97%) were most commonly targeted, followed by government (6.04%), businesses (5.37%), police (4.70%), and airports and aircrafts (4.70%). These data will be useful for the development of training programs in Counter-Terrorism Medicine (CTM), a rapidly emerging Disaster Medicine sub-specialty.

Situational Predictors of Negotiation and Violence in Hostage and Barricade Incidents

We analyzed a data set containing 7,216 hostage and barricade incidents that had been reported to the Federal Bureau of Investigation over a 35-year period. From two subsamples of the data set, we identified potential predictors of important outcomes—resolution by negotiation or surrender and violence after onset. In a third subsample, we combined and weighted the potential predictors to form two actuarial tools. We used three additional subsamples in the data set to cross-validate and calibrate the scores of each tool. Predictive validity was acceptable across all subsamples.

Duration and competing-risks determinants of terrorist hostage-taking incidents

This paper applies survival analysis to ascertain the key empirical determinants of the duration of terrorist hostage-taking incidents during 1978–2018. Our theoretical hypotheses are primarily based on John Cross’s bargaining model where negotiation duration depends on initial negotiation spread, bargaining costs, and perceived uncertainty. For hostage events, greater initial demands of the terrorists increase incident length by augmenting the negotiation spread. Sequential release of hostages, demanding the release of imprisoned comrades, changing demands during negotiations, capturing of protected persons, and engaging in kidnappings lengthen hostage incidents by affecting bargaining costs and perceived uncertainty. The number of nonterrorists wounded and the heterogeneity of the hostage-taking squad generally reduce incident length. Based on a competing-risk analysis, we identify factors, consistent with Nash bargaining, affecting three alternative outcomes for hostage incidents.

Commercial hostages in international business disputes

AbstractA “commercial hostage” or “debt hostage” situation involves a dispute between a foreign company and its local partner over such matters as payment, the closing of a local office or facility, the laying off of local employees, or the transfer or ownership of intellectual property. Rather than file a lawsuit seeking money damages or an injunction, the local partner takes extra‐judicial steps to detain the foreigner against their will, so as to pressure the foreign company into resolving the dispute. The local police may even actively assist the local partner by way of inaction when the foreign company asks for help. While this activity occurs in a number of countries, this study focuses on China. One challenge in studying commercial hostage situations is gathering enough cases to be able to gauge the factors that drive them. Stated differently, how can scholars shift the study of this important topic from the anecdotal to a data‐based approach? This study is an initial attempt to do just that—it mainly attempts to gauge the frequency of recent commercial hostage activity in the P.R.C. Secondarily, it sheds light on where that activity occurs, why, and the identity of its victims. To accomplish this, Freedom of Information Act requests were submitted to six Western countries (including the U.S.) with significant China trade. English and Chinese business and legal media reports were also searched for commercial hostage cases involving foreigners. Between these two sources, dozens of commercial hostage incidents were identified. The vast majority occurred in or near Tier 1 cities and/or coastal regions, a significant number involved foreign firms operating in the commodity goods space, and a disproportionate percentage involved ethnic Chinese. Building on these findings, we conclude by providing a risk assessment matrix that foreign businesspersons can use to evaluate the risk of travelling to the P.R.C. for business. As trade tensions rise between the U.S. and China, the importance of this issue and evaluating commercial hostage risk may only increase.

Commercial Hostages: Local vs. Foreigner Business Disputes in China

A “commercial hostage” or “debt hostage” situation involves a dispute between a foreign company and its local partner over such matters as payment, the closing of a local office or facility, the laying off of local employees, the transfer or ownership of intellectual property, etc. Rather than file a lawsuit seeking money damages or an injunction, the local partner takes extra-judicial steps to detain the foreigner against their will, so as to pressure the foreign company into resolving the dispute. The local police may even actively assist the local partner by way of inaction when the foreign company asks for help. While this activity occurs in a number of countries, this study focuses on China. One challenge in studying commercial hostage situations is gathering enough cases to be able to gauge the factors that drive them. Stated differently, how can scholars shift the study of this important topic from the anecdotal to a data-based approach? This study is an initial attempt to do just that – it mainly attempts to gauge the frequency of recent commercial hostage activity in the P.R.C. Secondarily, it sheds light on where that activity occurs, why, and the identity of its victims. To accomplish this, Freedom of Information Act requests were submitted to six Western countries (including the U.S.) with significant China trade. English and Chinese business and legal media reports were also searched for commercial hostage cases involving foreigners. Between these two sources, dozens of commercial hostage incidents were identified. The vast majority occurred in or near Tier 1 cities and/or coastal regions, a significant number involved foreign firms operating in the commodity goods space, and a disproportionate percentage involved ethnic Chinese. Building on these findings, we conclude by providing a risk assessment matrix that foreign businesspersons can use to evaluate the risk of traveling to the P.R.C. for business. As trade tensions rise between the U.S. and China, the importance of this issue and evaluating commercial hostage risk may only increase.

Introducing Transnational Terrorist Hostage Event (TTHE) Data Set, 1978 to 2018

This paper introduces transnational terrorist hostage event (TTHE) data set from 1978 to 2018. TTHE includes up to 50 variables for each of its 1,974 incidents, based on information in media sources. Four types of hostage incidents—kidnappings, barricade missions, skyjackings, and non-aerial hijackings—are recorded for a global sample. Select key variables include the number of hostages, targets of abductors’ demands, terrorist behavior in negotiations, amount of money ransom demands, other kinds of demands, duration of incident, and the outcome of negotiations. Our hostage data set also indicates location start and end, attack force size, victim numbers, casualties, weapons used, and logistical outcome. TTHE is tied to the International Terrorism: Attributes of Terrorist Events (ITERATE). We display interesting features of hostage incidents over time and an application of TTHE to identify the determinants of logistical and negotiation successes for hostage missions.

Examining the functions of prison critical incidents: a preliminary qualitative analysis of public reporting

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the function of crisis incidents in prisons within the UK and USA. The incidents reviewed included riots and hostage incidents, focusing only on information that was available publically. It did not intend to capture official reports not in the public domain. Design/methodology/approach Publically available information on incidents were systematically reviewed. Functional assessment and grounded theory were employed to examine background factors, triggers and maintaining factors. In total, 25 crisis incidents were analysed (UK =10 and USA =15) from the past 30 years. It was predicted that crisis incidents would be motivated by negative and positive reinforcement, with negative more evidenced than positive. Precipitating factors (i.e. triggers) were predicted to include negative emotions, such as frustration and anger. Findings Similarities in triggers and background factors were noted between hostage taking and riot incidents. Positive reinforcement was primarily indicated. Riots appeared driven by a need to communicate, to secure power, rights, control and/or freedom, whereas for hostage taking these functions extended to capture the removal of negative emotions, to inflict pain, to punish/gain revenge, to effect a release, to manage boredom and to promote positive emotions. Research limitations/implications The study is preliminary and focused on the reporting of incidents in publically available sources; consequently, the data are secondary in nature and further limited by sample size. Nevertheless, it highlights evidence for similarities between types of crisis incidents but also some important potential differences. The need to understand the protective factors preventing incidents and minimising harm during incidents is recommended. Practical implications It highlights evidence for similarities between types of critical incidents but also some important potential differences. Understanding differences between incidents is important in the tailoring of specific policies to address these areas. Understanding motivation and reinforcement is valuable in working towards the prevention of critical incidents. Understanding the protective factors preventing incidents and minimising harm during incidents is recommended. Originality/value This is an under-researched area. The study contributes to the field not only by focusing on providing a detailed analysis of an under-used source (public reporting) but by also identifying where gaps in research remain. The results demonstrate the value in understanding incidents through their motivation, particularly in distinguishing between negative and positive reinforcement.

Prisoners and Politics: Western Hostage Taking by Militant Groups

ABSTRACTHostage taking of Westerners by militant groups has increased since 9/11. Despite this rising problem, there has been little academic research on how a hostage’s individual characteristics influence the outcome of the incident. Using a newly collected dataset of over 1,000 individuals taken hostage in incidents involving terrorist groups since 2001, this article evaluates how individual, national, and group characteristics influence the likelihood that hostage incidents end with the release or execution of the hostage. The findings show that a hostage’s nationality and occupation are significant individual-level drivers of outcomes, while the nature of the militant group itself also matters.

Social psychological dynamics of hostage negotiation: forensic psychology, suicide intervention, police intelligence/counterintelligence, and tactical entry

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to review several major components of hostage negotiation including: the different types of hostage situations; the prediction of the behavioral patterns of the hostage taker; the collection and the use of police intelligence in hostage incidents; and the application of forensic psychology during the hostage negotiations process. Design/methodology/approach – Emphasis on the social psychological aspects of creating attitude change and gaining compliance with the hostage taker are introduced to assist in developing an effective crisis communication approach during the hostage negotiations process. Findings – The paper also discusses trends in hostage negotiation strategies within incidents of domestic violence, suicide by cop, school shootings, and suicide/homicide bombings. Practical implications – Limitations and advancements in the field of hostage negotiations are also discussed as well as suggestions for the use of tactical entry to resolve unsuccessful hostage negotiations. Social implications – Explores the current trend of “suicide by cop,” but also introduces the concept of homicide by cop in relation to police shootings. Originality/value – The use of criminal psychology in developing hostage negotiation strategies to engage hostage takers with personality disorders, PTSD, paranoid schizophrenia, and suicidal depression is also discussed.

Live to tell: Narratives of methamphetamine-using women taken hostage by their intimate partners in San Diego, CA

BackgroundHostage-taking, an overlooked phenomenon in public health, constitutes a severe form of intimate partner violence and may be a precursor to female homicide within relationships characterized by substance use. Criminal justice studies indicate that most hostage incidents are male-driven events with more than half of all cases associated with a prior history of violence and substance use. Methamphetamine use increases a woman's risk of partner violence, with methamphetamine-using individuals being up to nine times more likely to commit homicide. As homicide is the most lethal outcome of partner violence and methamphetamine use, this study aims to characterize the potential role of hostage-taking within these intersecting epidemics. MethodsMethamphetamine-using women enrolled in an HIV behavioural intervention trial (FASTLANE-II) who reported experiences of partner violence were purposively selected to participate in qualitative sub-studies (Women's Study I & II). Twenty-nine women, ages 26–57, participated in semi-structured interviews that discussed relationship dynamics, partner violence, drug use and sexual practices. ResultsFindings indicated four cases of women being held hostage by a partner, with two women describing two separate hostage experiences. Women discussed partner jealousy, drug withdrawal symptoms, heightened emotional states from methamphetamine use, and escalating violent incidents as factors leading up to hostage-taking. Factors influencing lack of reporting incidents to law enforcement included having a criminal record, fear of partner retaliation, and intentions to terminate the relationship when the partner is incarcerated. ConclusionEducating women on the warning signs of hostage-taking within the context of methamphetamine use and promoting behaviour change among male perpetrators can contribute to reducing the risk of homicide. Furthermore, bridging the gap between health services and law enforcement agencies and providing comprehensive services that address the needs of methamphetamine-using women in violent relationships can prevent or minimize potential harm to vulnerable women.

“HIGH-RISK”: A Useful Tool for Improving Police Decision-Making in Hostage and Barricade Incidents

The aim of the study is to examine several combinations of risk factors known to the police – i.e., perpetrator and situational characteristics of the incidents – leading to two possible outcomes in domestic hostage and barricade incidents (HBI): autoaggressive and heteroaggressive behaviors from the perpetrator. Using a series of conjunctive analyses on a sample of 534 hostage and barricade incidents, results show that, depending on the specific combination of factors, the likelihood of violence could very much vary, suggesting that the checklist approach is not adequate for risk assessment in hostage and barricade incidents. HIGH-RISK represents a decision support system that can be easily integrated to any crisis-intervention structure (CIS) or police unit dealing with hostage and barricade incidents.

Hostage Taking: Determinants of Terrorist Logistical and Negotiation Success

This article investigates the determinants of logistical and negotiation success from the terrorists’ viewpoint in hostage-taking missions. Logistical success indicates that the terrorists apparently completed the mission as planned, while negotiation success means that the terrorists received some of their initial demands. In the empirical analysis, the article utilizes a new dataset on hostage incidents from 1978 through 2005 for the logit regressions. Empirical results broadly support the authors’ theoretical predictions. Logistical success depends positively on terrorist resources and target vulnerability, while negotiation success increases with the relative disagreement values and relative bargaining strengths of the terrorists. More specifically, terrorist success at the execution stage depends positively on kidnappings and large hostage grabs and varies negatively with attack force diversity and terrorist casualties. Negotiation success depends on bargaining variables (i.e. the number of hostages, casualties, incident duration, and other proxies). The article shows that the factors that determine terrorist negotiation success differ between kidnappings and non-kidnappings (i.e. skyjackings, the takeover of buildings, and the hijacking of non-aerial means of transport), owing to location and other considerations (e.g. types of demands). In particular, making multiple demands bolsters negotiated success in non-kidnappings, while demanding money fosters negotiated success in kidnappings. Lengthier incidents have a positive influence on the likelihood of terrorists gaining concessions in kidnappings and non-kidnappings.

Kidnapping and hostage-taking: a review of effects, coping and resilience

Although the history of kidnapping and hostage-taking is a very long one, it is only relatively recently that there has been a systematic attempt to understand the effects, both long-term and short-term, on individuals and their families. This is an important issue for clinical and academic reasons. The advice of mental health professionals is sought with increasing frequency with regard to the strategic management of hostage incidents and the clinical management of those who have been abducted. There is evidence to suggest that how best to help those who have been taken hostage is a sensitive and complex matter, and those who deal with such individuals should be as well informed as possible since such events can have long-term adverse consequences, particularly on young children. This paper addresses the following: the background in terms of the history of this phenomenon, the motives behind it and the authorities' responses thereto; the psychological and physical effects of being taken hostage; coping and survival strategies; issues which require further research.

The political economy of terrorism

The Political Economy of Terrorism presents a widely accessible political economy approach to the study of terrorism. It applies economic methodology – theoretical and empirical – combined with political analysis and realities to the study of domestic and transnational terrorism. In so doing, the book provides both a qualitative and quantitative investigation of terrorism in a balanced up-to-date presentation that informs students, policy makers, researchers and the general reader of the current state of knowledge. Included are historical aspects, a discussion of watershed events, the rise of modern-day terrorism, examination of current trends, the dilemma of liberal democracies, evaluation of counterterrorism, analysis of hostage incidents and much more. The new edition expands coverage of every chapter, adds a new chapter on terrorist network structures and organization, accounts for changes in the Department of Homeland Security and the USA Patriot Act and insurance against terrorism. Rational-actor models of terrorist and government behavior and game-theoretic analysis are presented for readers with no prior theoretical training. Where relevant, the authors display graphs using data from International Terrorism: Attributes of Terrorist Events (ITERATE), the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), and other public-access data sets.

High risk factors of hostage barricade incidents in a Japanese sample

AbstractHostage taking incidents in which the police besiege a particular location are known as hostage barricade incidents. The first aim of the present article was to examine the process of risk assessment in hostage incidents, using a group of police officers as the sample. The second aim was to identify the risk factors involved in hostage incidents and examine the degree of concordance between the risk as assessed by the police officers and the figures obtained from the analysis of actual hostage barricade incidents. For the purpose of this study, a survey was carried out across Japan, and 45 police officers responsible for hostage negotiation responded to the questionnaires. Additionally, a sample of 116 actual hostage barricade incidents that occurred in Japan from 1970 to 2002 was utilised to examine the high risk factors involved in such cases. As per the results, a majority of the police officers (73.3%), in response to an open‐ended question, indicated that the highly excited state of the hostage takers was dangerous for the hostages. Moreover, it was demonstrated in all 116 incidents that several factors such as ‘a long siege’ tended to increase the risk of deaths, though this was very rare (n = 4). On the other hand, the proportion of injuries to the hostages was high in expressive situations such as domestic situations or suicide attempt scenarios. On the whole, the results obtained from the analyses of actual incidents were consistent with those obtained from the police officers' risk assessment in many respects. However, the correlation between the degree of risk as assessed by the police officers and the actual rate of deaths/injuries to the hostages was very low. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Stockholm Syndrome Revisited

ABSTRACT Since the 1973 event which led to the identification of a grouping of signs and symptoms labelled as the Stockholm Syndrome, the label has been used as a cover-all, shorthand device by journalists and (too many academics) seeking to simplify complex human behaviours. The bonding which occurs in some hostage incidents is reduced to friendship and many of the associated symptoms seen in the full syndrome are ignored. This article re-assesses the scientific basis for identification of a syndrome affecting hostages and their captors and provides a definition, based on experimental science, which may readily serve as an aid to hostage rescue teams, negotiators and their managers. Traditional explanations of the effect are based on weak or nonexistent scientific foundations and consequently have little or no predictive power. Using a formulation based on the experimental examinations of human behaviour (principally, but not exclusively, those of social psychology), the aetiology of the condition may be...

Contrasting Dynamics of Crisis Negotiations: Barricade versus Kidnapping Incidents

AbstractOver the past several decades, crisis negotiation has become the primary method of dealing with hostage incidents in many countries of the world. This article uses the analytical framework of interest-based negotiation to provide a comparative analysis of the negotiation dynamics involved in barricade versus kidnapping incidents. The primary difference between the two scenarios is that the location of the victim(s) as well as that of the perpetrator(s) is unknown in kidnappings. As a result, many of the components of crisis negotiation that have been so successful in resolving barricade situations are inapplicable to kidnappings. This article should help the reader understand the critical differences between the two scenarios, and the implications of those differences for the likelihood of success of different crisis negotiation strategies. Central focus is devoted to premeditated incidents perpetrated by organized groups with a political, criminal, or religious motivation.

Advanced Communication Techniques for Hostage Negotiators

ABSTRACT Hostage negotiators are in the communication business. In negotiating courses, negotiators are taught the basic principles of communicating. Very few negotiators are taught advanced communication techniques that are designed to influence others and increase compliance. The purpose of this paper is to present a model of negotiating developed by Ury (1991) and specific influence and compliance techniques discussed by Cialdini (1984). Ury's model presents a five stage program for getting agreement. The model was designed to deal with difficult negotiating situations, including hostage incidents. The techniques of influence and compliance are techniques which rely on automatic, unconscious behaviors and are powerful determinants in changing behavior and attitudes. The negotiator who knows and utilizes these techniques is at a tremendous advantage over the hostage taker and greatly increases the probability of being successful in negotiations.

The Politics of Hostage Rescue: Is Violence a Route to Political Success?

Over the years, law enforcement agencies have acquired extensive experience with hostage incidents, and most Western countries have officers trained in all aspects of hostage resolution. There are also articles and manuals outlining how to deal with the media coverage of hostage takings (Scanlon, 1989). However, because hostage rescue efforts can provide dramatic visuals that attract enormous audiences, the media have steadily intensified their coverage of such incidents. Today, a group of previously obscure persons can suddenly dominate the media agenda by successfully resisting an armed assault or by seizing hostages and calling themselves terrorists.After defining a hostage incident and looking at the strategy for dealing with such incidents, this article examines the implications of two fatal incidents: the stand‐off involving religious fanatics at Waco, Texas; and the Air France hijacking that started in Algiers and ended in Marseille, France. Both became number one on the Western media agenda, and both became political crises involving the head of state; one threatening a president’s credibility, the other enhancing a president’s status. Together they suggest that the escalating media coverage of such incidents raises questions not only about the effectiveness of current response strategies, but also about political leadership. This article discusses a number of strategies that have been tried or suggested. It also debates whether involvement has a positive or negative effect on political leaders. It concludes that, from the evidence available, a successful hostage rescue can yield political rewards.