Variation In Homicide Research Articles

Killing Growth: Homicides and Corporate Investment in Brazil

We examine the effects of violent crime on corporate investment and financing decisions of Brazilian firms. Exploring city variation in homicides, we find that an increase in the growth rate of homicides is associated with significantly lower corporate investments, with lower labour investments, and with a higher likelihood of layoffs. Spikes in violent crime are also associated with more conservative financing policies, reflected in higher cash holdings, in lower R&D (research and development) expenditures, and in lower dividend payments. Homicides further affect investment efficiency and financing choices, decoupling investment from debt finance and profitability. Moreover, the negative association between homicides and investment is significantly stronger in smaller firms, which highlights the uneven costs of violent crime in reducing firm growth.

Structural Racism and Criminal Violence: An Analysis of State-Level Variation in Homicide

We advance a structural racism approach to understanding the variation in homicide across the U.S. states. We conceptualize structural racism by juxtaposing the conditions for Blacks with those for Whites across multiple domains. We also include two ideological beliefs, racial resentments and Whites perceptions that their racialized social status is threatened by minority gains. The results show that higher Black homicide rates are associated with greater exposure to structural racism and that states with more Whites who harbor racial resentments have higher rates of Black homicides. We also found that states with more Whites who feel that their status is threatened exhibit higher rates of White homicides. However, the results reveal that structural racism exhibits a non-significant association with White homicide rates. We conclude that the challenge going forward is to develop strategies that can undo the oppression of Blacks without enhancing attitudes of Whites that promote criminality.

How Nearby Homicides Affect Young Women's Pregnancy Desires: Evidence From a Quasi-Experiment.

Leveraging spatiotemporal variation in homicides that occurred during a 2.5-year weekly panel survey of 387 women ages 18-22 in Flint, Michigan, we investigate how young women's desires to become pregnant and to avoid pregnancy evolve in response to local homicides during the transition to adulthood. To address the endogeneity of exposure, we explore how the same woman's pregnancy desires (1) differed, on average, across weeks before and after the first homicide occurred within a quarter mile of her home; (2) evolved in the aftermath of this initial homicide exposure; and (3) changed in response to additional nearby homicides. One-fifth (22%) of women were exposed to a nearby homicide at least once during the study, and one-third of these women were exposed multiple times. Overall, the effects of nearby homicides were gradual: although average desires to become pregnant and to avoid pregnancy differed after initial exposure, these differences emerged approximately three to five months post-exposure. Repeated exposure to nearby homicides had nonlinear effects on how much women wanted to become pregnant and how much they wanted to avoid pregnancy. Together, our analyses provide a new explanation for why some young women-especially those who are socially disadvantaged-desire pregnancy at an early age.

National Culture on the Cross‐National Variation of Homicide: An Empirical Application of the Inglehart–Welzel Cultural Map

Although there has been a growing literature on the effects of culture on the cross‐national variation of homicide, this literature remains limited in the operationalization of national culture as well as in the modeling of the cultural effects. Adopting a multidimensional measure of national culture developed in the World Values Survey, this study examines the effects of various aspects of national culture, as well as their interaction, on the cross‐national variation of homicide. The findings of this study provide evidence for the effect of national culture on homicide variation across countries while painting a more complex picture about the potential mechanisms of these effects.

The Role of Immigration: Race/Ethnicity and San Diego Homicides Since 1970

The temporal variation in homicide is examined by studying trends in race/ethnic specific killings (e.g. Blacks, Latinos and Whites). Two substantively important issues are also addressed—a closer examination of the role community heterogeneity plays in homicide levels and the treatment of immigration as an endogenous social process. Data are reported homicides in the city of San Diego, California over the period 1960–2010. The address of each killing is geocoded into 341 census tracts. We find that neighborhoods experiencing increases in the foreign-born population tend to be less violent. White and Latino homicide victimization was reduced significantly as a product of increases in the neighborhood concentration of foreign-born individuals. Supplementary analyses did not find empirical evidence that the influx of foreign-born individuals could (or should) be considered a disruptive social process. Over the past five decennial census periods, the exponential increase in immigration in this border city is not associated with an increase in homicide victimization. When examined through a wider temporal lens than is typically employed, and accounting for the endogeneity of immigrant residential settlement, we find no support for the claims that immigration is a crime generating social process.

Democratic Cultural Values as Predictors of Cross-National Homicide Variation in Europe

This study examines the extent to which variations in homicide rates across Europe, particularly differences between Western and Eastern Europe, can be explained by democratic cultural values. Prior studies have shown that individualism and egalitarianism promoted by democratic regimes are usually associated with lower levels of interpersonal violence. This study tests this relationship on a sample of 33 countries circa 2010. Not only does this relationship hold, but further analysis also shows that democratic values have both a direct and indirect effect on homicide rates as they are mediated by the strength of democratic institutions and practices.

Explaining variations in female homicide victimization rates across Europe

This study seeks to describe and explain female homicide victimization rates across Europe from 1985 to 2010. It examines whether cross-national differences in the levels of female homicides are due to the same factors that explain cross-national homicide variation more generally, whether they are the product of differences in gender dynamics across these countries, or whether they are reflections of regional differences capturing varying historical and cultural trajectories. Pooled time-series analysis of 33 countries over four time periods revealed that all three explanations are salient, although particular measures of each set of theories did not always perform as expected. The paper concludes that understanding macro-level variations in female homicide victimization requires multifaceted explanations that bridge criminological theories and that are also sensitive to socio-historical context.

Seasonal Variation in Homicide and Assault Across Large U.S. Cities

Although most crimes follow seasonal cycles, homicide is an apparent exception. The absence of homicide seasonality is surprising given that assault, a closely related offense, has an obvious annual pattern. Focusing on large U.S. cities, this article reevaluates seasonality in homicide rates using data with more extensive spatial and areal dimensions than in previous research. Panel decompositions reveal seasonal cycles in both homicide and assault rates. Seasonality stands out more clearly in assault, however, and the patterns differ somewhat in their details. The findings support the idea that assault and homicide have similar seasonal fluctuations, but they also suggest that the crimes are more distinct than criminologists often believe.

Fast life histories, not pathogens, account for state-level variation in homicide, child maltreatment, and family ties in the U.S.

Parasite stress theory has recently been used to account for an array of cross-cultural differences in human cognition and social behavior, including in-group bias, interpersonal violence, child maltreatment, and religious adherence. Here, we re-assess the apparently ubiquitous effects of parasite stress on behavior observed in the U.S., using the cross-sectional, cross-population approach implemented by prior pathogen stress studies. Our results raise two challenges to previous findings. First, we show that the observed effects of pathogen stress in the U.S. data are due exclusively to one type of infectious disease – sexually transmitted diseases (STD) – while non-STD infections have no effect. Second, we find that controlling for life history measures of extrinsic risk and a fast life history erases the observed associations with family ties, interpersonal violence, child fatalities, and religious adherence. Thus, after appropriate variable specification, stratification, and control, U.S. cross-state population differences provide no support for the pathogen stress hypothesis in these various domains of behavior. Rather, the findings are more consistent with predictions from life history theory.

Small Arms Mortality: Access to Firearms and Lethal Violence

There is an intuitive appeal to the notion that the more lethal the weaponry the more lethal the violence. We explore one aspect of lethal weaponry, firearm accessibility. Using nation-level (N = 168) data from the Small Arms Survey and the World Health Organization's measures of mortality we examine whether rates of small arm ownership have a positive effect on rates of homicide and suicide. Contrary to the opportunity model, the accessibility of firearms does not produce more homicide or suicide when other known factors are controlled for. Consistent with past research, structural factors, like deprivation, explain a large portion of the cross-national variation in homicide and suicide, with some interesting differences between the two models. We discuss explanations for our findings and suggest that firearm accessibility may make some structural positions more lethal.

Herding and Homicide Across Nations

This article examined the extent that Nisbett and Cohen’s herding hypothesis can account for cross-national variation in homicide. Three research questions were addressed. First, to what extent does herding influence homicide cross-nationally? Second, do different types of herding influence homicide differently? Third, are the effects of herding on homicide more pronounced in weak nation states? Little support was found for the proposition that herding influences homicide. Additionally, no consistent support was provided for the notion that the effects of herding on homicide are more pronounced in weak states. These results lend no support to Nisbett and Cohen’s proposition that there is a worldwide link between herding and violence.

Street Gangs and Aggregate Homicides

This study contributes to the body of research examining why city-level violence rates peaked in 1993. Taking homicide data from that year, we introduce an indicator for active street gangs along with indicators derived from common structural explanations of homicide rates. We assess whether gang presence is empirically associated with homicide variation across 154 U.S. central cities. Consistent with conceptual claims, correlational evidence demonstrates that active gangs were a significant source of homicides across this sample of cities. As a secondary concern, we assess structural conditions that were likely to predict gang formation within cities during the crime peak.

Are Underground Markets Really More Violent? Evidence from Early 20th Century America

The violent nature of illegal markets is one rationale for legalizing the sale of narcotics. High U.S. crime rates during the 1920s are regularly presented as evidence of the strong positive relationship between market illegality and violence. The author tests this theory by exploiting state-level variation in homicides and in the passage and repeal of temperance laws before and after Federal Prohibition. Support for the “wet” cause was positively associated with homicides in dry states. However, on average, murder rates did not increase when alcohol markets were criminalized. Observed crime trends during the early 20th century are primarily explained by demographic changes.

Homicide Rates in a Cross‐Section of Countries: Evidence and Interpretations

This study uses a regression analysis to explore the cross‐country variation in homicide rates for a large sample of countries. It starts by identifying seven significant regional variables, to which traditional socioeconomic, cultural, and institutional variables are added and tested. The importance of institutions, culture, and other factors affecting homicide rates is discussed. One unexpected finding is a curious relationship between the level of education and homicide rates: while an increase in male education tends to reduce homicide rates, an increase in female education tends to increase homicides. Several possible interpretations for this phenomenon are proposed. The study points to relatively unexplored areas of research in order to better understand homicide variation around the world.

Correlates of National-level Homicide Variation in Post-Communist East-Central Europe

This article examines whether correlates of cross-national homicide variation tested with data from highly developed, predominantly Western nations could also explain homicide rates in East-Central Europe. Using pooled time-series analyses of data from nine countries from 1990 through 2003, this study found that homicide rates were negatively related to GDP/ capita and positively related to ethnic diversity and population density. They were also negatively related to the percentage of young people and not significantly related to income inequality or divorce rates. This article also investigates whether conditions specific to the post-communist transformations contributed to homicide variation. Findings indicate that progressive reforms toward democratization and marketization decreased homicide rates. The discussion uses the socio-historical context of the nations to explain these results.

Evaluating Recent Changes in Homicide and Robbery Rates

This paper evaluates the Police Executive Research Forum's (PERF) recent warnings of a “gathering storm” of criminal violence in the United States. We argue that increases in violent crime during 2005 and 2006 were the expected result of year-to-year changes in the economy and imprisonment. Our argument is supported by an analysis of changes in homicide and robbery rates between 1970 and 2006 showing that short-run variation in homicide and robbery rates are a function of changes in imprisonment, the age composition of the population, and the economy. But PERF's warning of a new crime wave may simply have been premature. The steep economic downturn of 2008 portends a crime rise that may dwarf the 2005 and 2006 increases. Local communities and criminal justice practitioners should demand better research on crime trends that can help them evaluate current practice and plan for the future.

The seasonal relationship between assault and homicide in England and Wales

Investigating the seasonal asymmetry of violent behaviour has a long history. Despite this, there still remains considerable debate about the nature and aetiology of this phenomenon. Reports on homicide, for example, are mixed: some have found homicide seasonality but most have not. In contrast, all published studies on assault report that this behaviour is seasonal. Moreover, only two studies, both using US data, have examined the seasonal variation of assault and homicide in the same population over the same period of time. One group found assault was seasonal but homicide was not, whilst the other found, overall, that both homicide and assault were seasonal. This first of these findings seems paradoxical, in that there is no seasonal variation in injury related deaths (i.e. homicides), despite the antecedent behaviour (i.e. assaults) having a seasonal pattern of occurrence. We examined the seasonal variation in homicide and assault in UK and found a similar result. Furthermore, our findings are not easily understandable using conventional social models of seasonal behaviour and we suggest biologically mediated seasonal variation in the capacity of equally injured individuals to survive trauma may also play a role, which should be investigated further.

Does Capital Punishment have a "Local" Deterrent Effect on Homicides?

The vast majority of death penalty studies use geographically or temporally aggregated data. Such aggregation can make it virtually impossible to identify small amounts of variation in homicides due to executions. Therefore, this study uses data that are disaggregated down to daily and city levels to test whether executions have a short-term deterrent effect. Little consistent evidence is found that Texas executions deter Dallas, San Antonio, and Houston homicides from 1999 to 2004. The analysis also does not consistently support the hypotheses that the deterrent effect should be more evident for local executions or executions that received local media coverage.

Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime?

This paper examines the relationship between the legalization of abortion and subsequent decreases in crime. In a current study, researchers estimate that the legalization of abortion explains over half of the recent decline in national crime rates. The association is identified by correlating changes in crime with changes in the abortion ratio weighted by the proportion of the criminal population exposed to legalized abortion. In this paper, I use an alternative identification strategy. I analyze changes in homicide and arrest rates among teens and young adults born before and after 1970 in states that legalized abortion prior to Roe v. Wade. I compare these changes with variation in homicide and arrest rates among cohorts from the same period but who were unexposed to legalized abortion. I find little evidence to support the claim that legalized abortion caused the reduction in crime. I conclude that the association between abortion and crime is not causal, but most likely the result of confounding from unmeasured period effects such as changes in crack cocaine use and its spillover effects.

Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime?

This paper examines the relationship between the legalization of abortion and subsequent decreases in crime. In a current study, researchers estimate that the legalization of abortion explains over half of the recent decline in national crime rates. The association is identified by correlating changes in crime with changes in the abortion ratio weighted by the proportion of the criminal population exposed to legalized abortion. In this paper, I use an alternative identification strategy. I analyze changes in homicide and arrest rates among teens and young adults born before and after 1970 in states that legalized abortion prior to Roe v. Wade. I compare these changes with variation in homicide and arrest rates among cohorts from the same period but who were unexposed to legalized abortion. I find little evidence to support the claim that legalized abortion caused the reduction in crime. I conclude that the association between abortion and crime is not causal, but most likely the result of confounding from unmeasured period effects such as changes in crack cocaine use and its spillover effects.