Given a planar curve singularity, we prove a conjecture of Oblomkov–Shende, relating the geometry of its Hilbert scheme of points to the HOMFLY polynomial of the associated algebraic link. More generally, we prove an extension of this conjecture, due to Diaconescu–Hua–Soibelman, relating stable pair invariants on the conifold to the colored HOMFLY polynomial of the algebraic link. Our proof uses wall-crossing techniques to prove a blowup identity on the algebro-geometric side. We prove a matching identity for the colored HOMFLY polynomials of a link using skein-theoretic techniques.
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