Depreciation Of Home Currency Research Articles

Impacts of Regional Integration and Market Liberalization on Bilateral Trade Balances of Selected East African Countries: Potential Implications of the African Continental Free Trade Area

This study examined the effect of free trade on intra-African bilateral trade balances for Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, and Tanzania to assess the potential implications of the African Continental Free Trade area. The four countries have experienced persistent trade deficits. Whether free trade within Africa can improve the national trade balances, and the drivers of bilateral trade balances are important questions for policy and strategic programmes for the countries to make the most gains from free trade area. The econometric model estimated for each country is an extension of the standard Keynesian model of trade balance to include determinants of bilateral trade flows from the gravity model. Quantitative analysis using panel regression was augmented with qualitative data from interviews with trade policy experts and trade officials from various African countries and focus group discussions with small-scale cross-border traders at the Busia and Namanga border posts in East Africa. Findings show that complete tariff elimination on intra–African trade may not impact the bilateral trade balances of Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania but could improve bilateral trade balances for Uganda by 6 percent. Within the free trade areas, Uganda’s bilateral trade balances were higher within the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa but lower within the East African Community, than outside these areas. Kenya’s trade balances were lower in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, than otherwise. On the contrary, no significant difference in trade balances is established for the membership of Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania in the East African Community; Rwanda in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa; and Tanzania in the Southern African Development Community, when compared to trade balances with non-members. The importance of macroeconomic factors is demonstrated by the increase in bilateral trade balances with higher relative price levels of trade partners; the reduction with increase in relative production and expenditure capacities of trade partners; and improvements following a depreciation of home currency for Tanzania and Uganda, yet a worsening of trade balances in Kenya. A lack of harmony in documents required for cross-border movements within the free trade areas is reported as counterproductive. All African countries should therefore fully implement protocols and cooperate in the harmonization of trade procedures for the free movement of people and goods across borders. Country policies and trade programmes should pursue increased productivity in the leading intra-African export sectors and diversify exports via foreign direct investment in strategic sectors to substitute imports from outside Africa; reduce costs of production; increase the quality of products; and improve transport infrastructure.

Exchange rate, distribution, and outward direct investment

This paper examines the impact of exchange rate movements on firm outward direct investment (ODI), by taking into account the heterogeneous effects between distribution and production ODI. Overall, homecurrency depreciation tends to increase ODI due, in large part, to the growing emergence of distribution ODI as predicted by a theoretical model. Using rich Chinese firm-level ODI decision data over the period between 2000 and 2008, the intensive empirical search shows strong supports to the model prediction on the complementary relationship between distribution ODI and export. In response to home depreciation, Chinese firms set up more distribution trade affiliates to promote exports. Such results are robust to different econometric methodologies, empirical specifications, and time spans.

The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment

We provide evidence of a new channel of how exchange rates affect trade. Using a novel identification strategy that exploits firms' foreign currency debt maturity structure in Colombia around a large depreciation, we show that firms experiencing a stronger debt revaluation of dominant currency debt due to a home currency depreciation compress imports relatively more while exports are unaffected. Dominant currency financing does not lead to an import compression for firms that export, hold foreign currency assets, or are active in the foreign exchange derivatives markets, as they are all hedged against a revaluation of their debt. These findings can be rationalized through the prism of a model with costly state verification and foreign currency borrowing. Dominant currency pricing mutes the effects of dominant currency financing on imports relative to producer currency pricing.

An empirical analysis of the impacts of real exchange rate on GDP, manufacturing output and services sector in Mauritius

AbstractThe purpose of this study is to examine the effects of the real exchange rate (RER) movements on gross domestic product, manufacturing and services sectors growth in Mauritius. A Vector Autoregressive approach is used which accounts for both dynamics and endogeneity in the exchange‐growth modeling. In the growth model, real currency depreciation is observed to be contractionary in the short‐run while it is expansionary in the long‐run. Conversely, real home currency depreciation has expansionary effect on manufacturing output growth in the short‐run while it drops manufacturing output in the long‐run. Finally, real domestic currency depreciation has positive long term effect on services sector performance in Mauritius.

Credit constraints, currency depreciation and international trade

We document multi-sector exporters’ heterogeneous responses to home currency depreciation. Following currency depreciation, firms tend to export relatively less in sectors that depend more on external financing, to avoid adverse impacts of potentially binding credit constraints. More specifically, credit-constrained exporters respond to currency depreciation by increasing production first in sectors with less external financing dependence, then in sectors that are more dependent on outside funds, until they exhaust their limited financial resources. These findings are consistent with our prior that exporters’ needs for external financing are greater when their home currencies depreciate. Upon home currency depreciation, exporters react by expanding production or by entering new destination markets, incurring significant upfront costs. The results survive a series of robustness checks, and are stronger for low-performance firms and for firms engaged in ordinary trade. The results have important policy implications for emerging market countries that rely heavily on exports but have weak financial institutions.

The Effect of Interest Rate Differentials on Exchange Rate Volatility of East African Community Currencies

The study sought to test the effect of interest rate differentials on the exchange rate volatility of East African Community currencies. It used secondary data collected from Central Bank of Kenya, Bank of Uganda, Bank of Tanzania, Bank of the Republic of Burundi, National Bank of Rwanda and the IMF e-Library. A panel data model was used to regress average monthly exchange rates, interest rate differentials, inflation rate differentials and relative current account balances for a period starting from January 2013 to December 2017. Findings from the fixed-effects model showed that 98.8% of the variation in the exchange rate is explained by the three independent variables. Interest differential was the main independent variable with a coefficient’s value of 0.0274. This means that in East African Community an increase by 1 point in interest rate differential leadsto the depreciation of home currency by 0.0274 points. The study also found that the relative current account balance contributes also to the home currency depreciation with a coefficient’s value of 0.000052. However, the study could not be able to find the expected results for inflation differential as it has a negative coefficient’s value (-0.0075). This contradicts the economic theory on inflation differential and may due to other variables that were not included in the model but can be with great importance in the explanation of exchange rate movement. The study further suggested that more research can be carried out to bring forth more knowledge to the pool of literature on the relationship between interest rate differential and exchange rate volatility in the region.

Multi-sectoral Analysis of Foreign Investment and Trade Liberalization in India: A CGE Modelling Approach

India’s growth story has attracted worldwide attention, particularly because this growth has been fuelled by the wide-ranging economic reforms introduced since early 1990s. A distinctive feature of Indian liberalization was the gradual and calibrated manner in which the reforms were introduced in the various sectors of agriculture, manufacturing and services. This article is a modest attempt to capture the role played by trade liberalization and foreign direct investment (FDI) policies in growth and development of different sectors in India. We applied computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling as our relevant methodology following Das and Chakraborti (doi:10.1007/s40622-013-0003-3), 2013. The article constructs a social accounting matrix (SAM) and attempts to analyze the impacts of reduced import tariff and increased FDI on export–import volumes of different sectors and on exchange rate, GDP, rural and urban income levels and government income under perfect competition market structure. The study reveals that reduction in import tariff increases imports leading to a depreciation of home currency and boosting exports. On the other hand, increase in FDI appreciates exchange rate, making import cheaper and so import increases in all sectors. Export becomes less profitable leading to a reduction in sectoral export.

LIQUIDITY RISK AND TIME‐VARYING CORRELATION BETWEEN EQUITY AND CURRENCY RETURNS

Using the data of 20 major Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries over time, this article documents new evidence on real equity and real currency prices: higher real returns in the home equity market relative to its foreign counterparts are generally associated with real home currency depreciation at monthly frequency, but this negative correlation breaks down or even reverses during times of relatively higher aggregate economic uncertainty or volatility. This article also argues that a long‐run risks‐type model with time‐varying liquidity risk in stock markets can provide one plausible explanation for the time‐varying correlation structure. (JEL E43, F31, G12, G15)

The effect of exchange rate fluctuation on intra-industry reallocation in a firm heterogeneity model with trade and foreign direct investment

Abstract This paper presents a North-South firm-heterogeneity model with trade and two types of foreign direct investment (FDI): vertical and horizontal. We examine the short-run effect of exchange rate changes on intra-industry reallocation. Home currency depreciation concentrates intra-industry resources on export firms and away from domestic and FDI firms. The effect of the depreciation on industry-wide productivity is uncertain in a purely theoretical analysis, but the robust estimation in a fixed effects model using firm-level data (2010–2015) from the Japanese manufacturing industry (general machinery, electric machinery, and transportation equipment) suggests that home currency (yen) depreciation raises industry-wide productivity.

Liquidity Risk and Time-Varying Correlation between Equity and Currency Returns

Using data on twenty major OECD countries over time, this paper documents a new evidence on real equity and real currency prices: higher real returns in the home equity market relative to foreign counterparts are generally associated with real home currency depreciation at a monthly frequency, but this negative correlation breaks down or even reverses during times of relatively higher aggregate economic uncertainty or volatility. This paper also proposes one plausible explanation for this time-varying correlation structure. The suggested model is based on a long-run risks type model, combined with time-varying liquidity risks in stock markets. With recursive preference for the early resolution of uncertainty and a negative link between the level of short-run economic growth and equity market liquidity volatility, the model demonstrates that severe short-run economic uncertainty overturns the otherwise negative link between the real currency and real relative equity returns.

Does a cutback in external funding reduce incidence of foreign sponsored terrorism?

It is shown that a cutback in external funding would reduce the incidence of foreign sponsored terrorism in the home country, but the magnitude of the reduction will be somewhat smaller than normally expected because of the precipitous fall in the price of terror caused by home currency depreciation.

Non-Linear Adjustment of Import Prices in the European Union

This paper focuses on the non linear adjustment of import prices in national currency to shocks in exchange rates and foreign prices measured in the exporters' currency of products originating outside the euro area and imported into European Union countries (EU 15). The paper looks at three different types of non linearities: (a) non proportional adjustment (the size of the adjustment grows more than proportionally with the size of the misalignments), (b) asymmetric adjustment to cost increasing and cost decreasing shocks, and (c) the existence of thresholds in the size of misalignments below which no adjustment takes place. There is evidence of more than proportional adjustment towards long run equilibrium in manufacturing industries. In these industries, the adjustment is faster the further away current import prices are from their implied long run equilibrium. In contrast, a proportional linear adjustment cannot be rejected for some other imports (especially within agricultural and commodity imports). There is also strong evidence of asymmetry in the adjustment to long run equilibrium. Deviations from long run equilibrium due to exchange rate appreciations of the home currency result in a faster adjustment than those caused by a home currency depreciation. Finally, we also find that adjustment takes place in the industries in our sample only when deviations are above certain thresholds, and that these thresholds tend to be somewhat smaller for manufacturing industries than for commodities.

Exchange Rates, Equity Prices, and Capital Flows

We develop an equilibrium model in which exchange rates, stock prices and capital flows are jointly determined under incomplete forex risk trading. Incomplete hedging of forex risk, documented for US global mutual funds, has three important implications: 1) exchange rates are almost as volatile as equity prices when the forex liquidity supply is not infinitely price elastic; 2) higher returns in the home equity market relative to the foreign equity market are associated with a home currency depreciation; 3) net equity flows into the foreign market are positively correlated with a foreign currency appreciation. The model predictions are strongly supported at daily, monthly and quarterly frequencies for 17 OECD countries vis-a-vis the US. Moreover, correlations are strongest after 1990 and for countries with higher market capitalization relative to GDP, suggesting that the observed exchange rate dynamics are indeed related to equity market development.

Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?

This paper looks at the responsiveness of a country's export supply to exchange rate changes and measures its quantitative importance by breaking down export adjustments between changes in output levels by existing exporters (intensive margin) and movements due to changes in the number of exporters (extensive margin). Using data on a representative sample of Spanish manufacturing firms, the paper finds sunk costs hysteresis in entry and exit to be an important factor in determining export market participation, but unrelated to exchange rate uncertainty. The sunk costs of entering the market appear to be much larger than the costs of exiting the market. Finally, although hysteresis exists, its effect on the responsiveness of aggregate trade volumes to exchange rate changes is quantitatively small. A 10% home currency depreciation results in an increases in export volume due to the increase in the number of exporting firms of only 1.4% of export volume.

Exchange Rate Changes and the Distribution of Industry Value

This article investigates the simple, widely-held hypothesis that an exogenous real home currency depreciation enhances the competitiveness of home country manufacturers vis a vis foreign rivals. The study associates changes in competitiveness with redistributions of value within an industry. Daily and weekly data on redistributions of value are obtained from world financial markets. The study estimates the relationship between changes in exchange rates and redistributions of value within the world automobile and steel industries during the period 1978–87. The data generally do not support the notion that firms benefit competitively from a depreciation of the home currency. On the contrary, for large fractions of both industries, a depreciation of the home currency is associated with a significant decline in their share of industry value.