Recent Warming Research Articles

Quantification of streamflow response to climate change and human activities within upstream mountainous areas of the Daqing River Basin, Northern China

The Daqinghe River Basin is located in the North China Plain. In recent years, however, climate warming, drying, and intense human activities have led to declining ecosystem functions and shrinking wetlands in the region. Understanding streamflow changes in the upstream mountainous areas of the Daqinghe River Basin in this changing environment and identifying the driving factors can provide a scientific basis for water resources management and optimization in these areas. This study focuses on the Beihedian River watershed, the Xidayang Reservoir watershed, and the Wangkuai Reservoir watershed in the upstream mountainous areas of the Daqinghe River. It is based on hydro-meteorological data collected between 1963 and 2019. The methods used in the study include the linear tendency estimation method, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test, the elasticity coefficient method, and hydrological simulation methods. The results of this study suggest that the streamflow, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) in the three watersheds showed an overall decreasing trend. The minimum precipitation decrease rate ranged from −1.09 to −0.55 mm/a, and the minimum streamflow decreasing rate at the Beihedian Hydrological Station was −1.32 mm/a, with a minimum range of 0–176.03 mm. Change-point analysis revealed that the streamflow in the Beihedian River and Xidayang Reservoir watersheds experienced a significant change point around 1999, with a significant level of α=0.05. As for the Wangkuai Reservoir watershed, a significant change point was observed around 1980, which is likely attributable to land system reforms and protective forest projects. The attribution analysis which combined both climate change and human activities using the elasticity coefficient method and hydrological simulation methods indicated that climate change contributed an average of 32.93%, 34.50%, and 35.12% to the reduction in streamflow in the three watersheds, respectively. Human activities accounted for an average contribution of 67.07%, 65.50%, and 64.88%, respectively. Water conservancy projects, afforestation, and other human activities were identified as the primary factors contributing to streamflow decreases.

Tree-ring maximum latewood density reveals unprecedented warming and long-term summer temperature in the upper Indus Basin, northern Pakistan

Understanding long-term temperature variability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), northern Pakistan, and its driving mechanisms is challenging due to the scarcity of long observational records and available literature. In this study, we reconstructed a 651-year (1370–2020 CE) warm-season (March–September) temperature record using the tree-ring maximum latewood density (MXD) of blue pine (Pinus wallichiana). The reconstruction explains 57 % of the variance in actual temperature during the common calibration period (1972–2020 CE). Our analysis identified ten high-temperature periods (temperature > 20.9 °C) and nineteen low-temperature periods (temperature < 19.8 °C), with the coldest years being 1392, 1707, 1817, and 1837, and the warmest years being 2013, 2016, 2017, and 2018. Spatial correlation analysis reveals a significant positive correlation with field temperature, predominantly in neighboring regions, and a significant negative correlation with relative humidity and precipitation. Multi-taper spectral analysis shows inter-annual (1.9, 2.5, 2.7, 5.5 years) and interdecadal (11, 18, 23, 25, 40, 71 years) cycles, suggesting a potential linkage with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The negative linkage between our reconstruction and the region's standardized Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) indicates that continued temperature increase could result in severe drought in northern Pakistan in the near future. During the 20th century, the UIB experienced two distinct warming phases: 1948–1970 CE and 1994–2020 CE. The warming rate during 1994–2020 CE was 0.5 °C higher, indicating unprecedented recent warming. The reconstructed temperature record also demonstrates a large-scale spatiotemporal signal and a strong connection with most recorded volcanic eruptions. These findings enhance our understanding of long-term temperature variability in the region, highlighting the significance of MXD in reconstructing past temperature patterns.

Cooling down is as important as warming up for a large-bodied tropical reptile.

An ectotherm's performance and physiological function are strongly tied to environmental temperature, and many ectotherms thermoregulate behaviourally to reach optimum body temperatures. Tropical ectotherms are already living in environments matching their thermal tolerance range and may be expected to conform to environmental temperatures. We tracked the body temperatures (Tb) of 163 estuarine crocodiles across 13 years and compared Tb of 39 crocodiles to water temperature gathered using fish-borne sensors (Tw) across 3 years (2015-2018). While Tb largely conformed closely to Tw, we found inter- and intra-individual differences in relative body temperature (Tb-Tw) that depended on sex and body size as well as the time of day and year. Deviations from Tw, especially during the warm parts of the year, suggest that thermoregulatory behaviour was taking place: we found patterns of warming and cooling events that seemed to mediate this variation in Tb. Thermoregulatory behaviour was observed most frequently in larger individuals, with warming events common during winter and cooling events common during summer. By observing free-ranging animals across multiple years, we found that estuarine crocodiles show yearly patterns of active cooling and warming behaviours that modify their body temperature, highlighting their resilience in the face of recent climate warming. Our work also provides the first evidence for thermal type in large-bodied reptiles.

Patterns and drivers of cottonwood mortality in the middle Rio Grande, New Mexico, USA

AbstractRiparian ecosystems are some of the most valuable and vulnerable on the planet. Riparian tree mortality is increasing in the western United States, where altered streamflows are combining with warming climate. Between 2011 and 2013, one third of an extensive stand of Populus deltoides var. wislizeni (Rio Grande cottonwood) died along the middle Rio Grande on the Pueblo of Santa Ana in New Mexico. Mortality coincided with a severe drought that followed a decade of decreasing streamflow, but it was heterogeneous, with adjacent patches of dead and live trees. The goal of this research was to determine the drivers of mortality to provide insights into future risks of die‐off and potential management interventions. We compared tree age, competition, tree‐ring widths, sediment particle size and climate influences between live and dead forest patches in a nested plot design. Live and dead trees had similar age, stand density and particle sizes of shallow sediments. Tree‐ring widths had the highest correlations with July–September streamflow (1932–2013). All trees had declining ring growth since 1992, coinciding with declining late summer streamflow. An accelerated decline in growth began in 2002, corresponding to recent warmer droughts. Trees that died had lower ring growth 3 years prior to death and in the mid‐1900s. Dead trees also had coarser deep sediments 2.4–3.7 m below ground, suggesting that reduced water holding capacity was an important factor for mortality. Water management to increase streamflow during the late summer, especially during times of extended drought, could reduce mortality risk in the face of projected increasingly warm droughts.

TEOS-10 and the climatic relevance of ocean–atmosphere interaction

Abstract. Unpredicted observations in the climate system, such as recent excessive ocean warming, are often lacking immediate causal explanations and are challenging numerical models. As a highly advanced mathematical tool, the Thermodynamic Equation of Seawater – 2010 (TEOS-10) was established by international bodies as an interdisciplinary standard and is recommended for use in geophysics, such as, and in particular, in climate research. From its very beginning, the development of TEOS-10 was supported by Ocean Science through publishing successive stages and results. Here, the history and properties of TEOS-10 are briefly reviewed. With focus on the air–sea interface, selected current problems of climate research are discussed, and tutorial examples for the possible use of TEOS-10 in the associated context are presented, such as topics related to ocean heat content, latent heat, and the rate of marine evaporation; properties of sea spray aerosol; or climatic effects of low-level clouds. Appended to this article, a list of publications and their metrics is provided for illustrating the uptake of TEOS-10 by the scientific community, along with some continued activities, addressing still pending, connected issues such as uniform standard definitions of uncertainties of relative humidity, seawater salinity, or pH. This article is dedicated to the jubilee celebrating 20 years of Ocean Science. This article is also dedicated to the memory of Wolfgang Wagner, who sadly and unexpectedly passed away on 12 August 2024. His contributions to TEOS-10 are truly indispensable constituents; Wolfgang was an essential co-author of various related documents and articles. He will be deeply missed. All the rivers run into the sea; yet the sea is not full; unto the place from whence the rivers come, thither they return again. The King James Bible: Ecclesiastes, 450–150 BCE He wraps up the waters in his clouds, yet the clouds do not burst under their weight. Holy Bible: New International Version, Job 26:8 Of the air, the part receiving heat is rising higher. So, evaporated water is lifted above the lower air. Leonardo da Vinci: Primo libro delle acque, Codex Arundel, ca. 1508 Two-thirds of the Sun's energy falling on the Earth's surface is needed to vaporize … water … as a heat source for a gigantic steam engine. Heinrich Hertz: Energiehaushalt der Erde, 1885 The sea-surface interaction is obviously a highly significant quantity in simulating climate. Andrew Gilchrist and Klaus Hasselmann: Climate Modelling, 1986 The climate of the Earth is ultimately determined by the temperatures of the oceans. Donald Rapp: Assessing Climate Change, 2014

Long-term Holocene warming trend in Southern China revealed by corrected pollen data

Holocene temperature changes and their forcings serve as pivotal references for current and future warming trends. However, significant discrepancies exist between proxy reconstructions and model simulations of Holocene temperature evolution. Pollen evidence, often central to these discrepancies, have been criticized for potentially reflecting human influence rather than pure temperature variations, complicating our understanding of Holocene temperature changes. Our study focuses on southern China, a region with pronounced discrepancies between models and proxies. We introduce and validate a novel methodology to isolate genuine temperature signals from pollen data. This approach employs an arboreal pollen-based temperature index and correct biases inherent in raw pollen data using the Regional Estimates of Vegetation Abundance from Large Sites (REVEALS) model. Applying this method, we present a new winter/annual temperature record for the past 10,000 years based on two fossil pollen data from the Luoxiao Mountains. Simultaneously, we reconstruct the historical impact of human activities in the region. Our temperature records reveal a sustained warming trend during the Holocene, closely matching model-simulated mean annual temperatures (R = 0.97), and temperature reconstructions based on branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers from regional terrestrial and marine archives. In contrast, uncorrected pollen data indicate a cooling trend during the late Holocene, coinciding with significant human impact since approximately 3 ka BP. Our analysis and regional comparison with existing temperature records indicate that such contrasting temperature trends stem from a human-induced cooling bias, particularly pronounced in uncorrected pollen data. We infer that the early to middle Holocene warming was due to various factors, while late Holocene warming was predominantly driven by local annual insolation changes. Our findings challenge previously widely identified late-Holocene cooling trends based on uncorrected pollen data, demonstrating that the correction of pollen data can effectively mitigate human-induced cooling biases in temperature reconstructions. This study confirms the accuracy of climate models in simulating a Holocene warming trend, both temporally and spatially, at least in southern China.

Arctic amplification causes earlier onset of seasonal tree growth in northeastern Siberia

Abstract Although recent warming affects the high-northern latitudes at an unprecedented rate, little is known about its impact on boreal forests because in situ observations from remote ecosystems in Siberia are sparse. Here, we analyze the radial growth and climate sensitivity of 54 Cajander larches (Larix cajanderi Mayr.) from three sites across the northern treeline ecotone within the Omoloy river basin in northeastern Siberia. Three independent tree-ring width chronologies span 279–499 years and exhibit distinct summer temperature signals. These records further reveal evidence for sufficiently earlier onsets of growing seasons since the middle of the 20th century. This phenological shift coincides with rapidly increasing May temperatures and associated earlier snowmelt. Our findings reinforce the importance of high-precision ground measurements from remote regions in Siberia to better understand how warming-induced changes in the functioning and productivity of the boreal forest influence carbon, nutrient, and water cycle dynamics.

Sustained greening of the Antarctic Peninsula observed from satellites

The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced considerable anthropogenic warming in recent decades. While cryospheric responses are well defined, the responses of moss-dominated terrestrial ecosystems have not been quantified. Analysis of Landsat archives (1986–2021) using a Google Earth Engine cloud-processing workflow suggest widespread greening across the Antarctic Peninsula. The area of likely vegetation cover increased from 0.863 km2 in 1986 to 11.947 km2 in 2021, with an accelerated rate of change in recent years (2016–2021: 0.424 km2 yr−1) relative to the study period (1986–2021: 0.317 km2 yr−1). This trend echoes a wider pattern of greening in cold-climate ecosystems in response to recent warming, suggesting future widespread changes in the Antarctic Peninsula’s terrestrial ecosystems and their long-term functioning.

Relationships between freezing resistance and biochemicals in grapevine buds and canes: Different soluble carbohydrates accumulate in several cultivars during cold acclimation

Owing to recent warming trends during the growing season, wine grapevine (Vitis vinifera) production has increased in subarctic areas such as Hokkaido. However, high freezing resistance remains essential for grapevines due to the severe winter temperatures in these regions. Here, we investigated the seasonal variation in freezing resistance, as well as the water, soluble carbohydrate, proline, and total phenolic content (TPC) in the buds and canes of two V. vinifera cultivars and a Vitis riparia hybrid, Maeve. We found that freezing resistance in the buds and canes increased from fall to winter, with Maeve exhibiting higher freezing resistance than the V. vinifera cultivars during both seasons. Maeve experienced a faster rate of deacclimation, leading to comparable spring freezing resistance among all cultivars. The water content in the buds and canes of all three cultivars decreased during the fall, with Maeve showing an earlier reduction compared to the others. Most soluble carbohydrates increased in winter and decreased in spring. Notably, Maeve, which had higher winter freezing resistance, accumulated more sucrose in its buds and a higher concentration of soluble carbohydrates, particularly monosaccharides, in its canes compared to the other two cultivars. Proline and TPC levels were not linked to freezing resistance. Grapevine buds and canes appeared to accumulate soluble carbohydrates, especially monosaccharides, during winter, while reducing water content in fall to enhance freezing resistance. This study suggests that grapevine cultivars in Hokkaido may utilize different types of soluble carbohydrates to improve the freezing resistance of their buds and canes.

New simple sequence repeat markers reveal undetected diversity in Spanish and Californian Diplodia sapinea populations

Diplodia sapinea is the causal agent of Diplodia shoot blight, an emerging disease affecting pine forests worldwide. The range expansion of this pathogen in northern Europe has been suggested to be partially facilitated by recent warmer conditions. Although D. sapinea has been studied extensively, critical aspects of its infection biology and population structure remain unexplored. In this study, we developed nine simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers mined from D. sapinea genomes to assess the genetic diversity at higher resolution. Isolates from northern Spain, an area formerly regarded as having low genetic diversity and samples from a Californian population that was formerly regarded as clonal, were analysed in the study. In Spain, the nine SSR markers identified 56 genotypes in 285 samples. Isolates from symptomatic shoots, cones and asymptomatic tissues collected from different stands, suggested admixture between local populations. The same genotype tended to dominate within a single cone, and the same genotypes were usually found in both symptomatic and asymptomatic shoot tissues. The nine new SSR markers developed in this study revealed a high level of genetic diversity in both the northern Spanish and northern Californian populations than previous anticipated. Analyses using these nine SSR markers should contribute to a better understanding of the epidemiology, evolution and origin of D. sapinea, a pathogen that is gaining prominence in many parts of the world.

Oceanographic preconditions for planning seawater heat pumps in the Baltic Sea – an example from the Tallinn Bay, Gulf of Finland

Abstract. The use of low-temperature seawater heat for renewable energy installations is demonstrated with an example from the Tallinn Bay, Baltic Sea, based on Copernicus Marine Service reanalysis data. Tallinn and its surrounding seaside counties are home to about half a million people and produce about half of Estonia's gross domestic product (GDP). The Tallinn Bay with an area of 223 km2 extends to the north and has an open connection to the Gulf of Finland. Depths more than 50 m that cover the halocline already appear at a distance of 3–4 km from the coast. Surface layers get too cold during winter to be used in heat pumps for district heating; therefore, a feasible option is to pump slightly warmer seawater from the deeper halocline layers. The lowest monthly mean halocline temperature – down to 2.6 °C at 50 m depth and 3.3 °C at 70 m – is found in March and April based on reanalysis data from 1993–2019. The seawater seasonally cools below 3 °C on average on 1 January at 20 m depth and on 12 February at 50 m depth. At the 70 m depth, the average start of T&lt;3 °C was calculated on 28 February, although only 14 winters out of 26 had such water present; in 12 winters the condition T&gt;3 °C was always fulfilled. The median number of cold days is 11, with a maximum of 128 d in the winter 1993/1994 when stratification became rather weak due to the prolonged absence of Major Baltic Inflows of saltier and warmer North Sea waters. During the recent warmer period of 2009–2019, the start of the cold seawater period was delayed on average by 5–10 d. Tallinn has, among other Baltic Sea cities and industrial sites, a favorable location for seawater heat extraction because of the short distance to the unfreezing sub-halocline layers. Still, episodically there are colder-water events with T&lt;3 °C, when seawater heat extraction has to be complemented by other sources of heating energy.

Historical forest use constrains tree growth responses to drought: A case study on tapped maritime pine (Pinus pinaster)

Resin extraction from Pinus pinaster (maritime pine) trees was an important economic activity for most of the 20th century in Mediterranean forests, until the decrease in resin prices that led to their abandonment in the 1960s-1970s. Reduced tree growth is often observed after long periods of resin tapping, but it is unknown how these formerly tapped stands respond to recent climate warming and aridification. We sampled three historically tapped maritime pine stands in Teruel, eastern Spain, to understand differential growth and responses to climate in resin tapped and non-tapped trees. Using dendrochronological methods, we compared tree growth trends and responses to climate in tapped and non-tapped trees. Overall, tree growth was higher in resin tapped trees than in non-tapped trees, which were generally younger. However, tree growth decreased over time, increasing the negative effects of late spring temperatures, summer drought and reduced summer precipitation, with increased sensitivity to drought in tapped than non-tapped trees. Among tapped trees, those with larger wound area grew more than those less tapped, and were more sensitive to drought, particularly after the 80 s. Our results suggest that the legacy effects of previous management can constrain tree responses to climate change by increasing the sensitivity of tree growth to drought.

Exacerbated Tree Growth Decline of an Old Platycladus orientalis Forest after Rapid Warming at the Northern Edge of the Taihang Mountain of China

Old trees are irreplaceable conservation resources with numerous ecological and socio-cultural values. While many forests have experienced significant declines under recent climate warming, the risk of growth declines in old trees remains unknown. Here, we tackle this problem by dendrochronological studies of 30 old trees in a Platycladus orientalis forest at the northern boundary of the Taihang Mountain of China. We examined annual growth trajectories of trees at individual level and discovered four severe growth decline events over the last 150 years, including the periods of 1894–1899, 1913–1919, 1964–1967 and 2004–2018. The most recent growth decline event lasted for 15-year and involced 50% to 75% of the old trees. This decline was unprecedented in both its extent and duration. Furthermore, the growth–climate relationship of these old trees has changed since 1990. Before 1990, tree growth was significantly correlated with minimum winter; after 1990, tree growth became significantly correlated with the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Index. These results suggest that warming-induced droughts after 1990 could be the primary driver of the recent growth decline. If climate warming continues and drought stresses intensify, the old trees may face an increased risk of growth decline and even mortality.

Tree-ring blue intensity measurements from treeline sites in the Ural Mountains exhibit a strong summer temperature signal

The high northern latitudes offer an ideal environment to analyze tree growth responses to unprecedented recent warming. In this study, for the first time, we explore the dendroclimatological potential of latewood blue intensity (LWBI) and delta blue intensity (DBI) at two Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) sites in the upper treeline ecotone of the Ural Mountains, northern Russia. To assess the climate signals encoded in LWBI and DBI, as well as tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD), we correlated these parameter-specific chronologies against monthly temperature means, precipitation totals, and the SPEI index. LWBI and BDI exhibit robust and stable positive correlations with summer temperature, higher than TRW but slightly lower than MXD at both sites, with marginal negative effects from precipitation and strong negative correlations with SPEI. As direct surrogates for MXD, LWBI and DBI from larch trees offer reasonable alternatives as proxies for temperatures in northern latitudes.

A Systematic Local View of the Long-Term Changes of the Atmospheric Energy Cycle

Abstract The global climatology and long-term changes of the atmospheric energy cycle in the boreal winter are analyzed using a local available potential energy framework using the fifth generation ECMWF reanalysis data during 1979 to 2021. In contrast to the classic Lorenz energy cycle, this local framework provides the local information of available potential energy (APE) and its interactions with kinetic energy (KE), allowing the systematic study of barotropic and baroclinic processes. A further systematic decomposition of the APE and KE reservoirs into high- and low-frequency components is conducted to investigate the source and sink terms that account for their spatial variations and long-term changes. The climatology of the local energetics budget terms shows that the interplay between low-frequency APE and KE is mostly over the tropical and polar regions associated with the thermally direct circulation there. Interactions involving high-frequency components are mainly located in the storm track regions. We show that under recent global warming, a prominent dipolar trend of changes is present over the Asian-Pacific region for all energy forms. The long-term changes in the energy budget reveal how high-frequency APE intensification is due to a stronger conversion from low-frequency APE upstream of the storm track, and that this intensification can be compensated by eddy advection away from the storm track, rather than conversion to kinetic energy in the proximity of the mean jet. This provides evidence that a warmer climate substantially affects the energy cycle and, thus, the atmospheric circulation.

Phenolic profile, antioxidant capacity and oxidoreductase enzyme activity in autochthonous grape varieties from Bosnia and Herzegovina

The variability of phenolic compounds among grape varieties has an important role in selecting winemaking techniques, but the use of phenolic profiles for quality control is still fragmented and incomplete. Given the recent climate change and global warming, biochemical characterisation of secondary metabolites in autochthonous grape varieties is a very important factor for their preservation and sustainable agriculture. Two autochthonous grape varieties from the western Herzegovina region in Bosnia and Herzegovina have been selected for the research targeting at the evaluation of their phenolic profiles, antioxidant activities, and the correlation with oxidoreductase enzymes polyphenol oxidase and Class III peroxidase, in different berry tissues. The obtained results indicate a similar qualitative profile of phenolic compounds in exocarp and mesocarp in both varieties, but their concentrations and antioxidant activity vary significantly. The correlation between phenolic compounds and oxidoreductase enzyme activities in different grape berry tissues is discussed in this article.

First records of abnormal fishes in the Arctic and possible reasons of the anomalies

External anomalies in fish are diverse and include abnormal development of external organs (eyes, jaws, fins, etc.), deformity and curvature of the trunk, discoloration of the skin, reversal of the sides (in flounders) and others that reduce the survival of individuals with such disorders. Although they are not uncommon in nature, reports of fish anomalies in Arctic seas are extremely rare. There have been no published records of anomalous Bering flounder Hippoglossoides robustus or polar cod Boreogadus saida. We document here for the first time on albinism, ambicoloration, reversal of the sides, or curved spine in individuals of Bering flounder, as well as a specimen of polar cod with a vertebral deformity captured in the western Chukchi Sea. Photographs of both normal and abnormal individuals are provided. We hypothesize that of all the possible causes of the anomalies we have found, the most likely is the recent dramatic warming in the Arctic.

2023 temperatures reflect steady global warming and internal sea surface temperature variability

2023 was the warmest year on record, influenced by multiple warm ocean basins. This has prompted speculation of an acceleration in surface warming, or a stronger than expected influence from loss of aerosol induced cooling. Here we use a recent Green’s function-based method to quantify the influence of sea surface temperature patterns on the 2023 global temperature anomaly, and compare them to previous record warm years. We show that the strong deviation from recent warming trends is consistent with previously observed sea surface temperature influences, and regional forcing. This indicates that internal variability was a strong contributor to the exceptional 2023 temperature evolution, in combination with steady anthropogenic global warming.

Late-glacial and Holocene shifts in the mountain landscapes of the Cantabrian range (northern Spain) in response to changing climate, fire occurrence and land use

A new well-dated (18 14C dates on short-lived terrestrial plant macrofossils, 210Pb and 137Cs dating) fine-resolution palaeoecological sequence (pollen, coprophilous fungi, conifer stomata, macrofossils, charcoal) from Lago de Isoba (1400 m a.s.l.) spanning the past c. 17,000 years provides novel insights into the long-term dynamics of the high-elevation Cantabrian landscape in response to climate variability and human activities. Vegetation changes were mainly climate-driven during the Late-glacial and the Early Holocene. Thus, steppe-like environments prevailed during the Greenland Stadial 2.1a (GS-2.1a ≈ ‘Oldest Dryas’). Warmer and moister conditions during the Greenland Interstadial 1 (GI-1 ≈ ’Bølling-Allerød’) enabled successive expansions of Juniperus, Betula and Pinus. Steppe-like vegetation re-expanded during the cooler and drier Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1 ≈ ‘Younger Dryas’). Afterwards, the Early Holocene warming triggered the rapid spread of mixed pine-broad-leaved deciduous mountain forests. Pollen, stomata and macrofossils indicate continuous, long-lasting (c. 10,850–1250 cal yr BP) local occurrence of Pinus sylvestris stands. The records of Cerealia and Plantago lanceolata pollen types (first Holocene occurrences dated at c. 5100 cal yr BP) evidence increased land use during the Late Holocene, which triggered substantial changes in forest ecosystems. Following a phase of intensified arable and pastoral farming, which involved the use of fire to create and maintain forest clearings, pinewoods expanded and reached their maximum development between c. 3600 and 3300 cal yr BP. Pinus probably outcompeted temporarily other woody taxa thanks to its resilience to low-intensity disturbances. Later, pinewoods underwent a stepwise, human-induced decline ending in their final massive collapse after c. 1150 cal yr BP. The highest intensity of agricultural and pastoral farming took place during the Middle Ages, following maximum fire occurrence. We conclude that the present-day open landscape has been shaped by millennia of land use that partly blurred the impact of climate variability.

Roles of Earth’s Albedo Variations and Top-of-the-Atmosphere Energy Imbalance in Recent Warming: New Insights from Satellite and Surface Observations

Past studies have reported a decreasing planetary albedo and an increasing absorption of solar radiation by Earth since the early 1980s, and especially since 2000. This should have contributed to the observed surface warming. However, the magnitude of such solar contribution is presently unknown, and the question of whether or not an enhanced uptake of shortwave energy by the planet represents positive feedback to an initial warming induced by rising greenhouse-gas concentrations has not conclusively been answered. The IPCC 6th Assessment Report also did not properly assess this issue. Here, we quantify the effect of the observed albedo decrease on Earth’s Global Surface Air Temperature (GSAT) since 2000 using measurements by the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project and a novel climate-sensitivity model derived from independent NASA planetary data by employing objective rules of calculus. Our analysis revealed that the observed decrease of planetary albedo along with reported variations of the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) explain 100% of the global warming trend and 83% of the GSAT interannual variability as documented by six satellite- and ground-based monitoring systems over the past 24 years. Changes in Earth’s cloud albedo emerged as the dominant driver of GSAT, while TSI only played a marginal role. The new climate sensitivity model also helped us analyze the physical nature of the Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI) calculated as a difference between absorbed shortwave and outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere. Observations and model calculations revealed that EEI results from a quasi-adiabatic attenuation of surface energy fluxes traveling through a field of decreasing air pressure with altitude. In other words, the adiabatic dissipation of thermal kinetic energy in ascending air parcels gives rise to an apparent EEI, which does not represent “heat trapping” by increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases as currently assumed. We provide numerical evidence that the observed EEI has been misinterpreted as a source of energy gain by the Earth system on multidecadal time scales.