Holiday Climate Index Research Articles

Effects of Climate Change on the Future Attractiveness of Tourist Destinations in Greece

Climate change is a major challenge for the global tourism sector, affecting destinations worldwide. Greece, known for its scenery and abundant cultural history, is particularly vulnerable to these impacts. Tourism is a key driver of Greece’s economy, yet climate change threatens both natural environments and cultural sites. To evaluate the impacts of climate change on different types of Greek tourism (beach, sightseeing, winter tourism in mountainous areas), the widely used Holiday Climate Index (beach and urban versions) alongside three additional climatic indices customized for Greek climatic conditions, namely the Urban Climate Comfort Index, the Beach Utility Index, and the Mountainous Winter Climate Index were utilized for top tourist destinations of Greece. The results indicate that urban tourism may face challenges during peak summer months due to rising temperatures, but the shoulder seasons (April–May and September–October) will offer improved conditions, potentially extending the tourist season. For beach tourism, favorable conditions are expected to increase from April to October, with significant gains in June and September. Winter tourism in mountainous areas, especially snow-dependent activities like skiing, is at risk due to the declining snow availability. Overall, the study highlights both the challenges and opportunities posed by climate change for Greece’s tourism sector. It emphasizes the importance of adaptation strategies, including infrastructural improvements and promoting alternative activities, to minimize negative impacts and enhance the future attractiveness of Greek tourism.

Italian urban tourism predictions using the holiday Climate Index

The tourism sector is a source of sustenance for local communities, a driver of fiscal revenues and a way to connect local sites to international guests. Its dependence on climate change exposes it to chronic risks such as slowly varying climate patterns. In this paper, we predicted tourism intensity (as the number of beds per square kilometres) according to three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) at the municipal level in Italy: 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. We first estimated a statistical model of tourism intensity using the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) and other drivers. Then, we used the prediction of beds per Km2 to infer changes between 2004 and 2050 according to each RCP scenario of the HCI. We find complex heterogeneous patterns in exposure and a moderate positive effect in the RCP2.6 scenario. However, delayed (RCP4.5) or no climate policy at all (RCP8.5) scenarios present dire consequences for the tourism sector.

Global Climate Resources and Climate Change for Beach Tourism (1950‐2019)

Climate is a primary determinant of tourism and recreational decisions. According to climate resource perspective–the study’s theoretical perspective–climate resources are meteorological variables of confirmable consequence to firm performance. Climate resources can be quantified using climate indices, or equations that variably weight meteorological variables that influence tourist decisions. To date, researchers have yet to calculate climate resources at the global scale using an index formulated for beach tourism, a subsector of marine tourism. We address this research gap, calculating the Holiday Climate Index (HCI)-beach globally from 1950 to 2019. The HCI-beach was formulated based on beach tourist surveys, an extensive literature review, and has been validated as the best‐fit index for beach tourism. Study findings (1) quantify ideal and unacceptable conditions for beach tourism globally, and (2) identify geographies with significant HCI‐beach changes over the span of 70 years (i.e., climate change). Findings contribute to the resource heterogeneity of climate resource perspective.

Forecasting Australia’s international arrivals with climate indices

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of climate on marine and urban tourism using climate indices in four of Australia’s busiest cities: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. Climate is operationalized using the previously validated Holiday Climate Index (HCI)-beach for marine tourism HCI-urban for city tourism; international airport arrivals are the tourism behavior of interest.Design/methodology/approachHCI-beach and-urban indices were calculated using climate data: thermal comfort, cloud cover, windspeed and precipitation. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were calculated for airport arrivals only and airport arrivals with exogenous factors (i.e. HCI-beach and-urban).FindingsIndices proved significant for each city where HCI-urban scores were more favorable on the aggregate than HCI-beach scores. HCI-beach improved model accuracy in Melbourne (3.11%), Sydney (15.77%) and Perth (37.38%); HCI-urban improved accuracy at Brisbane by 37.73%.Research limitations/implicationsThe primary limitation is that airport arrival data was only available monthly. Using aggregated arrivals also precludes explicitly determining recreational intentions among travelers.Practical implicationsResults demonstrate climate indices can improve forecast accuracy for actual tourism behaviors, including destination arrivals.Social implicationsFor tourists, results demonstrate the meteorological season and city where climate conditions are more or less favorable.Originality/valueTo the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first known study to investigate the influence of climate indices on improving predictability of international arrival forecasts.

The Construction and Application of a Model for Evaluating Tourism Climate Suitability in Terraced Agricultural Cultural Heritage Sites: A Case Study of Longji Terraced Fields in China

As one of the globally significant agricultural cultural heritages, Longji Terraced Fields in Longsheng, Guangxi, China, attract numerous tourists. This study aims to describe the weather phenomena and climate change characteristics of Longji Terraced Fields in recent years to reveal their impact on the tourism economy. Utilizing meteorological station data and considering the actual situation in Longsheng, Guilin, the existing models for evaluating tourism climate comfort are improved. The tourism climate comfort of Longji Terraced Fields from 2002 to 2022 is discussed. The results show that the improved model can better reflect the local situation. The results show that the current Holiday Climate Index and Modified Climate Index for Tourism are not suitable for evaluating the Longji Terraces. Adjustments were made to these indices to account for the high annual precipitation and relative humidity of Longsheng. Combining extensive questionnaire surveys, it was found that the improved evaluation model better reflects tourists’ perceptions of climate comfort. Analysis indicates that when the modified model value is above 70, tourist satisfaction exceeds 80%. The most comfortable tourism periods for the Longji Terraces are August, September, and October, while the least comfortable periods are January, February, and March. This study helps to understand the seasonal variations in tourism climate comfort at Longji Terraced Fields and provides a scientific basis for local tourism industry responses to climate change, thereby increasing tourism revenue.

A synthetic approach to the Holiday Climate Index for the Mediterranean Coast of Türkiye.

Climate change affects the comfort level of tourists visiting coastal areas. Researching these impacts is important for a more comprehensive understanding of climate change and for developing effective adaptation solutions. Considering this fact, the study derived the Holiday Climate Index (HCI: Coast, HCI: Urban, and HCI: Combined) in the Mediterranean coastal provinces of Türkiye from 1976 to 2020. Utilizing the derived indices, the effects of climate-related holiday comfort on the number of tourist arrivals as well as on overnight stays between 1976 and 2020 were examined by panel data analysis. The study examined how comfort patterns could change during the period 2026-2050 under the pessimistic RCP8.5 scenario. It was detected that the comfort level significantly and positively affects the number of arrivals and overnight stays of tourists. Besides, comfort levels were found to deteriorate in the period 2026-2050 compared to the reference period, 1976-2020. As the comfort conditions get worse, the number of tourist arrivals and overnight stays is expected to decline in the future. It is envisaged that the results of the study can be useful for tourists, tourism professionals, operators, other stakeholders, and policymakers.

Quantifying climatic suitability for tourism in Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Islands: Applying the Holiday Climate Index to Réunion Island.

Climate is a key resource for tourists and tourism providers. Varied approaches to quantifying climate resources for tourism have been developed in the last 40years, computing indices from a range of meteorological variables to measure the comparative climatic suitability of different destinations through time. This study provides the first application of a tourism climate index in the tropical southwest Indian Ocean, applying the recently developed Holiday Climate Index (HCI) for Réunion Island. The suitability of this index is evaluated for the case of this French department, with a particular focus on air conditioning availability in tourism accommodation establishments as this index excludes night-time thermal comfort. Both iterations of the HCI (HCIBeach and HCIUrban) are computed with meteorological data from Roland Garros Airport for the period 1991-2020, exploring monthly, annual, and seasonal climatic suitability. Mean monthly HCI scores reveal considerable seasonality in climatic suitability for tourism on the island with scores ranging from 89.3 ('excellent') to 36.9 ('marginal') for the HCIBeach and 85.0 ('excellent') to 27.5 ('unacceptable') for the HCIUrban, with more favourable scores calculated for July and August, displaying a clear austral winter peak seasonal classification. Over the 30-year period, there is no statically significant change in mean annual climatic suitability, and at a monthly scale, only one month of the year for each index displays statistically significant trends. These results are important in informing tourism strategies for the island to maximise visitor satisfaction through targeting advertising more deliberately for peak touristic climate suitability during the winter months.

The Impact of Climate Change on Tourism Demand in China

This study quantified the impact of climate on the international tourism demand in China. Due to rising awareness and urgency to combat climate change, there is a growing need to better grasp the possible implications and the risk of climate change to the tourism industry. The tourists’ travel decision can be influenced by both climatic and non-climatic factors, and thus this study has integrated both factors into the models. The climatic variable is represented by Tourism Climate Index (TCI) and Holiday Climate Index (HCI) while the selected non-climatic determinants are tourists’ income, tourism price, exchange rate and transportation cost. The empirical findings showed that climate conditions significantly and adversely affect China’s tourism demand. Tourists’ income level, as expected, positively affects their decision to travel to China. Meanwhile, the tourism price, exchange rate, and transportation cost negatively impact China’s tourism industry. Although some valuable results have been found, more works are required to understand its long-haul significance to the tourism industry, especially during extreme events such as extreme weathers, pandemics, financial crises and etc.

Assessing the impact of dust events on the Holiday Climate Index in the Taklimakan Desert region.

As a significant sector within the tourism industry, desert tourism has developed rapidly in recent years, contributing significantly to local economic development. On the other hand, desert tourism is constantly influenced by the desert climate, characterized by high temperatures, aridity, and dust events. This study examines and analyzes the impact of dust events on the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) using an improved methodology. It incorporates comprehensive meteorological data including temperature, relative humidity, cloud cover, precipitation, wind speed and dust events of Tazhong, located in the heart of the Taklimakan Desert. The results indicate that the maximum mean monthly HCI dips from an ideal level (91) to a very good level (73), the minimum dips from good level (66) to a marginal level (47), and the annual comfortable days (HCI ≥ 80) decrease from 180.5 to 95.3 after considering the impacts of dust events. The corrective HCI indicates that autumn, especially October, offers relatively comfortable climatic conditions for tourism, with the mean monthly comfortable days reach 20.1. These findings can better guide desert tourism activities and also demonstrate that the impact of dust weather on tourism activities cannot be ignored.

Projected Summer Tourism Potential of the Black Sea Region

The impacts of climate change and the extent of their consequences exhibit regional variability. The negative effects of climate change on the tourism industry require a comprehensive examination of the vulnerabilities of tourism–dependent countries. Considering that the tourism sector is an important source of income for these countries, it is imperative to evaluate the potential consequences of climate change. Its effects may lead to changes in the location and popularity of tourist destinations and the timing of the tourism season. If popular coastal destinations cannot respond effectively to the impacts of climate change, alternative tourism destinations need to be explored to reduce financial losses. This study aims to assess the potential of the Black Sea coasts as an alternative tourism destination. The evaluation was conducted using the Holiday Climate Index (HCI), a prominent indicator for determining human comfort. The research showed that Türkiye’s Black Sea coast may have the necessary comfort level for beach tourism in the summer season and may be attractive for more tourists considering the positive relationship between arrival and overnight stay and tourist comfort.

Nature-based tourism and climate favourability: a case of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

ABSTRACT Nature-based tourism at the Great Barrier Reef in Australia is a salient contributor to the national economy. Nature-based tourism involves travel to a destination dependent on the natural environment for recreation. Nature-based tourism is influenced by weather, climate, and over the span of decades, climate change. However, there is a salient knowledge gap where the interrelations between climate and tourism at the Great Barrier Reef remain understudied. Accordingly, this study present the case of the Great Barrier Reef to investigate (1) climate favourability, (2) changes to long-term weather (i.e. climate) as a process of climate change, (3) interrelations between climate and travel decisions, and (4) the value of climate favourabiltiy to tourism performance. Weather favourability is calculated using the Holiday Climate Index (HCI), and the dependent variable is airport arrivals (i.e. a travel decision). Results demonstrate (1) 96.3% of the months had ‘good’ to ‘ideal’ weather favourability, (2) annual HCI improved towards ‘ideal’ as a process of climate change (1984–2021), (3) past tourism participation and climate were predictive of travel decisions dependent on meteorological season, and (4) the value of climate favourability in the summer and spring seasons.

High Temperatures and Tourism: Findings from China

Climate change and its fluctuations exert significant impacts on the tourism industry, particularly through the influence of high temperatures as typical meteorological and climatic factors on tourists’ travel intentions, spatial behavior preferences, and destination choices. This study employs China as a case study to investigate the effects of high-temperature weather on tourism and tourist travel. By analyzing news reports, conducting observations, and examining statistics, an exploratory analysis of tourism in China under high-temperature scenarios reveals several noteworthy findings. Firstly, tourists seeking relief from the summer heat exhibit a preference for short-distance trips and destinations rich in natural resources. Secondly, heat-escape tourism products have gradually transformed over time, evolving from mountain heat escapes in the 1980s to waterfront vacations in the 1990s, artificial water leisure in the 2000s, and ultimately culminating in the development of heat-escape cities in the 2010s. Additionally, this study examines interregional disparities in summer tourism climate amenity across China using the Holiday Climate Index (HCI), the Tourism Climate Index (TCI), and daily data from 775 weather stations. It also provides a summary of the spatiotemporal evolution from 1961 to 2020 within the context of climate change, revealing intriguing findings. Moreover, a case study of Shanghai Disneyland demonstrates the greater significance of the holiday system compared to temperature constraints. This study aims to examine the interaction between high temperatures and China’s tourism in the context of climate change, providing a scientific foundation for government agencies and tourism enterprises to develop effective policies and plans.

Analysis of the Comfort Level of Climate in the Padang Coastal Tourism Area Using the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) Method

Padang city is one of the regions of Indonesia that has potential in the tourism sector, one of which is beach tourism. The tourism sector is one of the largest sectors and the main mainstay for the economy in various countries, including Indonesia. Countries that rely on the tourism sector must pay attention to several factors that attract tourists, one of which is climate comfort. Climate information is a major factor in choosing a tourist trip. This study aims to analyze the level of climate comfort in the coastal tourism area of Padang City using the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) method. HCI uses climate parameters such as air temperature, humidity, wind speed, rainfall, and cloud cover. HCI calculation data in the form of observation data obtained from the Meteorology Climatology Geophysics Agency (BMKG) station at Minangkabau International Airport and the Teluk Bayur Maritime Meteorology Station from 2011-2020, direct measurement data from August to September, and questionnaires. The results of the HCI analysis show that the city of Padang is comfortable throughout the year, with the HCI value in the range of 58.6-71.6 which is categorized as acceptable to very good. The results obtained through direct measurements also obtained comfortable results throughout the day with HCI values in the range of 70-80. Perceptions of tourists interviewed also stated that overall tourists felt comfortable with the percentage of respondents as much as 74.1%. HCI can be used as a source of information to determine the value of climate comfort in tourist areas.

Visitors Perceptions of the Climate Comfort at the Padang Coastal Tourism Area, Indonesia

This study explains visitors’ perceptions of climate comfort in the Padang coastal tourism area, including Air Manis Beach, Padang Beach, Nirwana Beach, and Pasir Jambak Beach. Climate comfort index calculation using the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) and survey methods are used to take data. The survey is conducted to collect data on climate comfort perception and the role of weather on that comfort. There are 409 respondents in this study. Most visitors state that weather affects climate comfort during their trip (99%) and need weather information for outdoor tourism (98.5%). However, only 27.1% are looking for weather information before traveling outdoors. This coastal tourism area’s perceived level of climate comfort is comfortable (64%). The thermal sensation is neutral (66%). Meanwhile, the average score of the comfort index in Padang is neutral throughout the year. The temperature interval indicates the comfortable category is between 26ºC-28ºC.

საქართველოს ბიოკლიმატური პოტენციალის კვლევა ჰიდრომეტეოროლოგიისა და გეოფიზიკის ინსტიტუტების ერთობლივ სამუშაოებში

A brief review of the results of the study of the bioclimatic potential of Georgia in joint works of the institutes of hydrometeorology, GTU and geophysics, TSU over the past 15 years is presented. In particular, data on spatio-temporal characteristics of such bioclimatic parameters as air effective temperature, Tourism Climate Index, Holiday Climate Index are presented.

Assessing the Impacts of Tourism Climate Index and Holiday Climate Index on Tourism Demand in Malaysia

This study aims to investigate the impacts of climate change on tourism demand in Malaysia. To date, this is the first study to employ the tourism climate index (TCI) and the holiday climate index (HCI) to examine the linkage between climate variables and tourism demand in Malaysia. Both the TCI and the HCI were constructed by integrating several climatic variables – temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloud cover, duration of sunshine, and wind speed into a single numerical index. The climate indexes were theoretically based on the biometeorological literature to reflect human thermal comfort. This paper utilized the effective temperature to measure human thermal comfort based on the ASHRAE-55 standard and employed monthly data from 2010 through 2020. The weather data were gathered from The Weather Online. Meanwhile, the number of international tourist arrivals to Malaysia was collected from the Ministry of Tourism Malaysia. The empirical outcomes of this study show that both the TCI and the HCI illustrated similar trends with the tourist visitation pattern in Malaysia. These results indicate that the climatic conditions potentially affect demand in Malaysia’s tourism industry. Therefore, both the TCI and HCI provide valuable insights to the Malaysian government and key industry players to design tourism policies and products. Lastly, this study also contributes to the literature related to tourism studies.

Performances of Holiday Climate Index (HCI) for Urban and Beach Destinations in Sri Lanka under Changing Climate

Climate change has had a significant impact on the tourism industry in many countries, leading to changes in policies and adaptations to attract more visitors. However, there are few studies on the effects of climate change on Sri Lanka’s tourism industry and income, despite its importance as a destination for tourists. A study was conducted to analyze the holiday climate index (HCI) for Sri Lanka’s urban and beach destinations to address this gap. The analysis covered historical years (2010–2018) and forecasted climatic scenarios (2021–2050 and 2071–2100), and the results were presented as colored maps to highlight the importance of HCI scores. Visual analysis showed some correlation between HCI scores and tourist arrivals, but the result of the overall correlation analysis was not significant. However, a country-specific correlation analysis revealed interesting findings, indicating that the changing climate can be considered among other factors that impact tourist arrivals. The research proposes that authorities assess the outcomes of the study and conduct further research to develop adaptive plans for Sri Lanka’s future tourism industry. The study also investigated potential scenarios for beach and urban destinations under two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the near and far future, presenting the findings to tourism industry stakeholders for any necessary policy changes. As Sri Lanka expects more Chinese visitors in the future due to ongoing development projects, this study could be valuable for policymakers and industry stakeholders when adapting to changing climate and future tourist behavior. While more research is needed to fully understand the effects of climate change on Sri Lanka’s tourism industry, this study serves as a starting point for future investigations.

Application of Holiday Climate Index (HCI): Urban to Potential Alternative Tourism Attractions

Application of Holiday Climate Index (HCI): Urban to Potential Alternative Tourism Attractions

Climate and weather-related factors limiting outdoor activities and impacting tourism: Case studies in Slovenia

Tourism must adapt to climate change while doing its part to help fulfil the Sustainable Development Goals. In scientific literature, climate services for tourism are under-researched. Slovenia (Central Europe), with its diverse climate and topography, was chosen as a case study to investigate climate change’s effects on the country as a tourist destination. Using publicly available meteorological data, the Tourism Climate Index and the Holiday Climate Index were estimated. The two indices show a weak relation to the statistical data on overnight stays in selected municipalities for the period 2019-2021. The climate change impact on ski tourism in nine ski areas in Slovenia was estimated using statistically significant negative trends of annual number of days with snow cover. The negative trends were more pronounced for the period 1961-1990 over 1991-2020; 1987 was determined as a turning point in the trend detection. Typical outdoor activities on the Soča River in western Slovenia include rafting and canoe rafting. The trends in river discharges were used to estimate the impact of climate change on the number of navigable days per year and per season (March 15 – October 31), and no clear trends were found in this case study. Further investigations are needed to support tourism adaptation strategies and investigate climate-tourism interaction.

Holiday Climate Index: Urban—Application for Urban and Rural Areas in Romania

Nature, landscape, relaxation, and outdoor activities are important motivations when choosing rural destinations for vacations. Therefore, when selecting a rural area as a vacation destination, we assume that climate features are important. We investigated the appropriateness of the holiday climate index: urban (HCI:urban) in quantitatively describing the relationship between climate and tourism fluxes in such destinations. We employed data from 94 urban and rural tourist destinations in Romania and correlated the monthly mean HCI:urban values with sectoral data (overnight tourists) for 2010–2018. The results show that weather and climate influenced tourism fluxes similarly in rural and urban destinations, supporting the hypothesis that HCI:urban may be used for rural areas as well. The information derived from HCI:urban may be useful for tourists when planning their vacations as well as for tourism investors in managing their businesses and reducing the weather and climate-related seasonality in tourism fluxes.