Holdings Of Government Securities Research Articles

Does public debt impede financial development in Jordan Some macro and micro analysis

Purpose- It is acknowledged that banks offer their respective economies a number of services, including the encouragement of savings and allocation of capital to the private and public sectors. Within this context, and given that public debt in Jordan has been increasing at an alarming rate, this paper sets out to answer two questions: First, what is the impact of local public debt on aggregate credit to the private sector? Second, what is the impact of local public debt on bank-level credit to the private sector? Methodology- To provide an answer to the first question, the paper uses annual data (1982 – 2021) on aggregate bank credit to the private sector, aggregate bank credit to the government, and the discount rate. The applied techniques include stationarity test, optimal lag structure, co-integration, and vector error-correction (VECM) estimation. To answer the second question, the paper uses annual bank level data (2010 – 2021) for all 13 listed Jordanian banks. The fact that this data includes both time series and cross-section elements, panel data analysis is used to measure the impact of bank-level credit to the government on bank-level credit to the private sector. Findings- At the macro level, the results show that bank credit to the government (bank holdings of government securities) has a significant and negative impact of bank credit to the private sector. At the micro level, the results also show that bank-level lending to the government does affect (negatively) their credit to the private sector. Conclusion- The results of this paper are not encouraging. Indeed, they indicate that public debt impedes credit to the private sector. The government should look at the status of its public finance and work on reducing its borrowing. In addition, the government should look at the viability of establishing a secondary market for its issued securities. Keywords: Jordan, public debt, bank credit, diversification, time-series analysis, co-integration. JEL Codes: E50, E51, E52

Sovereign portfolio composition and bank risk: The case of European banks

We extend the literature on the sovereign-bank nexus by examining the composition effects of sovereign portfolios on banks' risk profile, unlike previous studies which generally analyzed the determinants of banks’ sovereign portfolios or the size effects of these portfolios. We also differ from previous studies with respect to the measures of risk considered and by covering a sample period that goes well beyond the Global Financial Crisis (2009–2018). Drawing on granular data from the European Banking Authority, we find that banks are riskier when their portfolio includes a higher proportion of securities that are issued by higher risk sovereigns or when they are themselves domiciled in a country with high sovereign credit risk. But we do not find concluding evidence that larger holdings of government securities of the country where the bank is incorporated increase bank risk ex-post. However, the risk profile is higher for banks that received government capital injections than for banks that did not receive capital support in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Banks that received government capital injections are less risky when their portfolio includes a higher proportion of securities that are issued by higher risk sovereigns. These results may indicate that regulatory arbitrage motives at these banks are particularly important.

Bankss Holdings of and Trading in Government Bonds

In this paper we examine the holdings of government securities by domestic banks along with those of five other sectors: foreign banks, foreign non-banks, the official foreign sector, the domestic central bank and domestic non-banks. We use data for 21 advanced economies from 2004 Q1 to 2016 Q2. The results offer four main insights. First, banks are reluctant to undertake major changes in their holdings of domestic bonds but do accept frequent changes of more intermediate size. Second, the foreign official sector emerges as the clearest example of a contrarian investor, buying when prices fall and selling when prices rise. Third, the greater the holdings by domestic and foreign banks, the lower the yields tend to be on 10-year benchmark sovereign bonds. Finally, in all countries included in the sample we find a positive home bias in banks’ sovereign holdings while foreign banks hold fewer bonds than predicted by a neutral portfolio measure. These results suggest that banks regard domestic government bonds as a special asset class (hence the positive bias and avoidance of major changes in inventories) which they manage in a flexible manner (hence the frequent intermediate changes and lack of systematic timing of transactions), in all likelihood to meet requests from their customers. All in all, this behaviour by domestic banks provides a positive contribution to the liquidity of the market.

Banks' holdings of and trading in government bonds

AbstractIn this paper we examine the holdings of government securities by domestic banks along those of the foreign banks/non‐banks/official sector as well as the domestic central bank and domestic non‐banks, using data for 21 advanced economies from 2004Q1 to 2016Q2. The research offers four main insights. Firstly, banks are reluctant to undertake large changes in their holdings of domestic bonds but do accept frequent changes of more intermediate size. Secondly, the foreign official sector emerges as the clearest example of contrarian investor, which buys when prices fall and sells when prices rise. Thirdly, the yields of 10‐year benchmark sovereign bonds tend to be lower the larger the holdings by domestic and foreign banks are. Finally, we find in all countries of the sample a positive home bias in banks' sovereign holdings while foreign banks hold less than predicted by a neutral portfolio measure. These results suggest that banks regard domestic government bonds as a special asset class (hence the positive bias and the avoidance of large changes in inventories) which they manage in a flexible manner (hence the frequent intermediate changes and the lack of systematic timing of transactions) probably to meet requests from their customers. All in all, this behavior by domestic banks provides a positive contribution to the liquidity of the market as a whole.

Banks’ Holdings of Government Securities and Credit to the Private Sector in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

This paper studies the relationship between banks’ holdings of domestic sovereign securities and credit growth to the private sector in emerging market and developing economies. Higher banks’ holdings of government debt are associated with a lower credit growth to the private sector and with a higher return on assets of the banking sector. Analysis suggests that the negative relationship between banks’ claims on the government and private sector credit growth mainly reflects a portfolio rebalancing of banks towards safer, more liquid public assets in stress times and provides only limited evidence of a crowding-out effect due to financial repression.

Banks' Holdings of Government Securities and Credit to the Private Sector in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

Banks' Holdings of Government Securities and Credit to the Private Sector in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

Understanding and managing interest rate risk at banks

ABSTRACTBanks in many countries hold significant quantity of bonds issued by their sovereign. This nexus of bank balance sheets with the sovereign debt can amplify in a two-way loop the effect of a rise in sovereign debt yields on banks and vice-versa. The rise in sovereign debt yields tends to be episodic, exhibiting conditional volatility, and banks need to manage this risk proactively to dampen the two-way loop. Lessons are drawn from this perspective for understanding and managing of interest rate (or ‘duration’) risk at Indian banks from their holdings of government securities. Moral hazard implications of regulatory forbearance policies when the two-way loop materializes are also discussed.

Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Making Models in Regulatory Evaluation of Commercial Banks in India and its Consistency with Public Perception

This paper, first, examines the performance of a sample set of public sector banks (nationalized banks and State Bank of India) and a sample set of private sector banks in terms of certain regulatory variables. It uses aggregation techniques like TOPSIS, VIKOR and ELECTRE - III to rank their performance. This exercise is done over a period of time to see whether the ranking of banks, both in the private sector and the public sector, has undergone any change. These aggregation techniques provide an alternative method to that of CAMELS used by Reserve Bank of India. Second, the paper delves into market perception of these two sets of banks and ranks them in terms of the aggregation techniques. The paper then combines the above two approaches to check whether the market at large understands the regulatory framework that the banks need to follow. Variables like RISK (Risk Weighted Assets/Total Assets), CAR (Actual Capital Adequacy Ratio), CRRISK (Provisions/Total Advances), VULNER (Ratio of Deposits to Risk Weighted Assets), CLSTATE (Ratio of Government Security Holdings to Total Assets), ROA (Returns on Assets), Net Interest Margin and NPA percentage are selected to represent regulatory variables. Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio, Price/Book Value per Share (P/BVPS), Size as measured by size of deposits, Dividend Payout Ratio, Dividend Yield and ROE are chosen to represent public perception banks.

Are Banks Really Lazy? Evidence from Middle East and North Africa

We investigate whether low loan-to-deposit (LTD) ratios and high levels of reserve balances at the central bank (or holdings of government securities) are a reflection of policy-driven factors compared to commonly cited reasons of reluctance to lend or sometimes weak investment demand in uncertain environments. We examine changes to central bank (CB) balance sheet structures as well as commercial banks’ flow of funds over the period 2007–2012. First, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) CBs play an active role in view of their size that is very large with respect to their economies compared to CBs in advanced economies. Second, under exchange rate targeting, most MENA CB balance sheets are asset-driven, holding foreign exchange (FX) reserves to support the exchange rate policy and resulting in lower loan-to-deposit (LTD) ratios in the case of unsterilized increases in FX. Third, CB policy decisions seem to be accompanied by an increase in commercial bank reserve money balances, with ensuing reduction in the LTD. Finally, if governments meet their financing needs from the banking system—whether from commercial banks or by monetary financing—commercial bank balance sheets will tend to expand, resulting in lower LTD ratios. Our analysis suggests that government and CB actions may also drive the demand for and supply of credit, which are traditionally attributed to the behavior of banks and non-financial corporates and households only. The findings offer a different interpretation of changes in CB and banks’ balance sheets, with direct implications for LTD, calling to exercise caution in recommending policy action which aim at propping up LTD to ‘appropriate’ levels in an effort to reinvigorate credit following a downturn.

Friedman's Monetary Economics in Practice

Abstract This paper views the policy response to the recent financial crisis from the perspective of Milton Friedman's monetary economics. Five major aspects of the policy response were: 1) discount window lending was provided broadly to the financial system, at rates that were low in relation to the market rates prevailing before the crisis; 2) the Federal Reserve's holdings of government securities were adjusted with the aim of putting downward pressure on the path of several important interest rates for a given path of short-term rates; 3) deposit insurance was extended, helping to insulate the money stock from credit market disruption; 4) the commercial banking system received assistance via a recapitalization program, while existing equity holders bore losses; and 5) an interest-on-reserves system was introduced. These five elements of the policy response were in keeping with those that would arise from Friedman's framework, while a number of the five departed appreciably from other prominent benchmarks (such as the Bagehot prescription for discount rate policy, and New Keynesian approaches to stabilization policy). One notable part of the policy response, the TALF initiative, drew largely on frameworks other than Friedman's. But, in important respects, the overall monetary and financial policy response to the crisis can be viewed as Friedman's monetary economics in practice.

Friedman's monetary economics in practice

This paper views the policy response to the recent financial crisis from the perspective of Milton Friedman's monetary economics. Five major aspects of the policy response were: 1) discount window lending was provided broadly to the financial system, at rates that were low in relation to the market rates prevailing before the crisis; 2) the Federal Reserve's holdings of government securities were adjusted with the aim of putting downward pressure on the path of several important interest rates for a given path of short-term rates; 3) deposit insurance was extended, helping to insulate the money stock from credit market disruption; 4) the commercial banking system received assistance via a recapitalization program, while existing equity holders bore losses; and 5) an interest-on-reserves system was introduced. These five elements of the policy response were in keeping with those that would arise from Friedman's framework, while a number of the five departed appreciably from other prominent benchmarks (such as the Bagehot prescription for discount rate policy, and New Keynesian approaches to stabilization policy). One notable part of the policy response, the TALF initiative, drew largely on frameworks other than Friedman's. But, in important respects, the overall monetary and financial policy response to the crisis can be viewed as Friedman's monetary economics in practice.

Bank Ownership and Performance in the Middle East and North Africa Region

Although both domestic and foreign private banks have gained ground in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in recent years, state banks continue to play an important role in many countries. Using a MENA bank-level panel dataset for the period 2001–2008, the article contributes to the empirical literature on bank ownership and performance by documenting recent ownership trends and assessing the relations between bank ownership and performance in MENA while accounting for key bank characteristics such as size and balance sheet composition. The article is the first to analyze headline performance indicators as well as their key drivers and finds that state banks exhibit significantly weaker performance, despite their larger size and potential scale economies. This result is mainly driven by larger holdings of government securities, higher costs due to larger staffing, and larger loan-loss provisions reflecting weaker asset quality. These results seem to reflect both operational inefficiencies and policy mandates. Taken together, the results do not reject the development role of state banks, but show that their policy interventions come at a cost. As such, the article argues that there is scope to reduce the share of state banks in some MENA countries and to clarify the mandates, improve the governance, and strengthen the operational efficiency of most state banks in the region.

Government Bonds and Their Investors: What are the Facts and Do They Matter?

This paper introduces a new dataset on the composition of the investor base for government securities in the G20 advanced economies and the euro area. During the last decades, investors from abroad have increased their presence in government bond markets. The financial crisis broke this trend. Domestic financial institutions allocated a larger share of government securities in their portfolios, as Japan has done since its crisis in the 1990s. Increases in the share held by institutional investors or non-residents by 10 percentage points are associated with a reduction in yields by about 25 or 40 basis points, respectively. The data show a varied lead-lag relationship between bond yields and investor holdings. Portfolio balance estimates suggest that a change in statutory or regulatory holdings of government securities to the tune of 10 percent of the outstanding stock causes expected returns to decline by 7 to 25 basis points.

Government Bonds and their Investors: What Are the Facts and Do they Matter?

This paper introduces a new dataset on the composition of the investor base for government securities in the G20 advanced economies and the euro area. During the last decades, investors from abroad have increased their presence in government bond markets. The financial crisis broke this trend. Domestic financial institutions allocated a larger share of government securities in their portfolios, as Japan has done since its crisis in the 1990s. Increases in the share held by institutional investors or non-residents by 10 percentage points are associated with a reduction in yields by about 25 or 40 basis points, respectively. The data show a varied lead-lag relationship between bond yields and investor holdings. Portfolio balance estimates suggest that a change in statutory or regulatory holdings of government securities to the tune of 10 percent of the outstanding stock causes expected returns to decline by 7 to 25 basis points.

Government Bonds and Their Investors: What are the Facts and Do They Matter?

This paper introduces a new dataset on the composition of the investor base for government securities in the G20 advanced economies and the euro area. During the last decades, investors from abroad have increased their presence in government bond markets. The financial crisis broke this trend. Domestic financial institutions allocated a larger share of government securities in their portfolios, as Japan has done since its crisis in the 1990s. Increases in the share held by institutional investors or non-residents by 10 percentage points are associated with a reduction in yields by about 25 or 40 basis points, respectively. The data show a varied lead-lag relationship between bond yields and investor holdings. Portfolio balance estimates suggest that a change in statutory or regulatory holdings of government securities to the tune of 10 percent of the outstanding stock causes expected returns to decline by 7 to 25 basis points.

Friedman's Monetary Economics in Practice

This paper views the policy response to the recent financial crisis from the perspective of Milton Friedman's monetary economics. Five major aspects of the policy response are: 1) discount window lending has been provided broadly to the financial system, at rates low relative to the market rates prevailing pre-crisis 2) the Federal Reserve's holdings of government securities have been adjusted with the aim of putting downward pressure on the path of several important interest rates relative to the path of short-term rates 3) deposit insurance has been extended, helping to insulate the money stock from credit market disruption 4) the commercial banking system has received assistance via a recapitalization program, while existing equity holders have borne losses and 5) an interest-on-reserves system has been introduced. These five elements of the policy response are in keeping with those that would arise from Friedman's framework, while a number of the five depart appreciably from other prominent benchmarks (such as the Bagehot-Thornton prescription for discount rate policy, and New Keynesian approaches to stabilization policy). One notable part of the policy response, the TALF initiative, draws largely on frameworks other than Friedman's. But, in important respects, the overall monetary and financial policy response to the crisis can be viewed as Friedman's monetary economics in practice.

Managing the Interest Rate Risk of Indian Banks' Government Securities Holdings

The large holdings of government securities by banks in India draw attention to their risk as interest rates are at historical low levels. This paper measures such a risk using duration and value-at-risk methods and assesses its current management by banks. The main finding is that some public sector and old private banks are vulnerable to a reversal of the interest rate cycle, while foreign and new private banks have built adequate defenses. In this regard, the paper makes a number of recommendations regarding government policies and individual bank practices to manage interest rate risk.

Managing the Interest Rate Risk of Indian Banks' Government Securities Holdings

The large holdings of government securities by banks in India draw attention to their risk as interest rates are at historical low levels. This paper measures such a risk using duration and value-at-risk methods and assesses its current management by banks. The main finding is that some public sector and old private banks are vulnerable to a reversal of the interest rate cycle, while foreign and new private banks have built adequate defenses. In this regard, the paper makes a number of recommendations regarding government policies and individual bank practices to manage interest rate risk.

Managing the Interest Rate Risk of Indian Banks' Government Securities Holdings

The large holdings of government securities by banks in India draw attention to their risk as interest rates are at historical low levels. This paper measures such a risk using duration and value-at-risk methods and assesses its current management by banks. The main finding is that some public sector and old private banks are vulnerable to a reversal of the interest rate cycle, while foreign and new private banks have built adequate defenses. In this regard, the paper makes a number of recommendations regarding government policies and individual bank practices to manage interest rate risk.

Editors' Summary

Editors' Summary The brookings panel on Economic Activity held its seventy-eighth conference in Washington, D.C., on September 9 and 10, 2004. This issue of Brookings Papers on Economic Activity includes the papers and discussions presented at the conference. The first paper evaluates unconventional measures available to monetary policymakers for stimulating the economy when interest rates are already near zero, a situation that may arise with price stability or negative inflation. The second paper presents empirical evidence on the effects of taxes, federal spending, and deficits on national saving, interest rates, and growth. The third paper explores the impacts on U.S. employment in recent years from conventional foreign trade in goods and from the rise in offshoring of service jobs. The fourth paper examines the effect of tax changes, such as those passed since 2000, on business capital formation. Central Banks Usually implement monetary policy by setting the short-term nominal interest rate that the bank controls, such as the federal funds rate in the United States. However, the success of many industrial countries over the years in reducing inflation and, consequently, average nominal interest rates has increased the likelihood that, during a recession, the policy rate will approach its lower bound of zero. When rates are at or near zero, a central bank can no longer stimulate aggregate demand by further rate reductions and must rely instead on "nonstandard" policy alternatives. An extensive literature examines these alternatives, but for the most part from a theoretical or historical perspective. Few studies have presented empirical evidence on their potential effectiveness in modern economies. Such evidence not only would help central banks plan for the contingency of the policy rate approaching zero, but also would bear directly on the choice of the appropriate inflation objective in normal times: the greater the confidence of central bankers that tools exist to help the economy escape [End Page ix] the liquidity trap that occurs at the zero bound, the less need there is to maintain an inflation "buffer." Hence evidence of effective alternative policies would bolster the argument for a lower inflation objective. In the first article of this issue, Ben Bernanke, Vincent Reinhart, and Brian Sack apply the tools of modern empirical finance to the recent experiences of the United States and Japan to look for such evidence.1 Following earlier work by Bernanke and Reinhart, the authors group nonstandard policy alternatives into three classes: official communications designed to shape public expectations about the future course of interest rates; quantitative easing, which increases both assets (holdings of government securities) and liabilities (unborrowed reserves) on the central bank's balance sheet; and changes in the composition of that balance sheet through, for example, targeted purchases of long-term bonds aimed at reducing long-term interest rates. The authors' investigation employs two approaches. First, they perform event-study analysis, measuring and analyzing the behavior of selected asset prices and yields over short periods surrounding central bank statements or other financial or economic news. Second, they estimate "no-arbitrage" models of the term structure of interest rates for both the United States and Japan. For any given set of macroeconomic conditions and stance of monetary policy, these models allow the authors to predict interest rates at all maturities. Using the predicted term structure as a benchmark, they are then able to assess whether factors not included in the model—such as the Bank of Japan's quantitative easing policy that began in 2001—have economically significant effects on interest rates. Bernanke, Reinhart, and Sack begin with a discussion of nonstandard policies that might be effective in stimulating the economy when short-term rates are at the zero bound; the discussion draws on the historical experience with such policies in the United States and Japan as well as on existing theories of potential policy channels and previous empirical analysis. The first type of policy they consider is the use of central bank communications to influence the market's expectations about future policy and hence future short-term rates. According to some theories, shaping expectations about future short-term rates is essentially the only tool central bankers have. But the authors take a broader view, arguing that...