HIV Incidence Assays Research Articles

Estimation of HIV-1 Incidence Using a Testing History-Based Method; Analysis From the Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Survey Data in 12 African Countries.

Estimating HIV incidence is essential to monitoring progress in sub-Saharan African nations toward global epidemic control. One method for incidence estimation is to test nationally representative samples using laboratory-based incidence assays. An alternative method based on reported HIV testing history and the proportion of undiagnosed infections has recently been described. We applied an HIV incidence estimation method which uses history of testing to nationally representative cross-sectional survey data from 12 sub-Saharan African nations with varying country-specific HIV prevalence. We compared these estimates with those derived from laboratory-based incidence assays. Participants were tested for HIV using the national rapid test algorithm and asked about prior HIV testing, date and result of their most recent test, and date of antiretroviral therapy initiation. The testing history-based method consistently produced results that are comparable and strongly correlated with estimates produced using a laboratory-based HIV incidence assay (ρ = 0.85). The testing history-based method produced incidence estimates that were more precise compared with the biomarker-based method. The testing history-based method identified sex-, age-, and geographic location-specific differences in incidence that were not detected using the biomarker-based method. The testing history-based method estimates are more precise and can produce age-specific and sex-specific incidence estimates that are informative for programmatic decisions. The method also allows for comparisons of the HIV transmission rate and other components of HIV incidence among and within countries. The testing history-based method is a useful tool for estimating and validating HIV incidence from cross-sectional survey data.

Challenges to the performance of current HIV diagnostic assays and the need for centralized specimen archives: a review of the Consortium for the Evaluation and Performance of HIV Incidence Assays (CEPHIA) repository.

Background: New challenges for diagnosis of HIV infection abound, including the impact on key viral and immunological markers of HIV vaccine studies, pre-exposure prophylaxis usage and breakthrough infections, and very early initiation of anti-retroviral treatment. These challenges impact the performance of current diagnostic assays, and require suitable specimens for development and evaluation. In this article we review and describe an archive developed by the Consortium for the Evaluation and Performance of HIV Incidence Assays (CEPHIA), in order to identify the critical features required to create a centralized specimen archive to support these current and future developments. Review and Findings: We review and describe the CEPHIA repository, a large, consolidated repository comprised of over 31,000 highly-selected plasma samples and other body fluid specimen types, with over 50 purposely designed specimen panels distributed to 19 groups since 2012. The CEPHIA repository provided financial return on investment, supported the standardization of HIV incidence assays, and informed guidance and standards set by the World Health Organization and UNAIDS. Unified data from extensively characterized specimens has allowed this resource to support biomarker discovery, assay optimization, and development of new strategies for estimating duration of HIV infection. Critical features of a high-value repository include 1) extensively-characterized samples, 2) high-quality clinical background data, 3) multiple collaborations facilitating ongoing sample replenishment, and 4) sustained history of high-level specimen utilization. Conclusion: With strong governance and leadership, a large consolidated archive of samples from multiple studies provides investigators and assay developers with easy access to diverse samples designed to address challenges associated with HIV diagnosis, helping to enable improvements to HIV diagnostic assays and ultimately elimination of HIV. Its creation and ongoing utilization should compel funders, institutions and researchers to address and improve upon current approaches to sharing specimens.

A Multiplex HIV Incidence Assay for Inferring Recent HIV-1 Transmission and Time of Infection.

Laboratory assays for determining recent HIV-1 infection are an important public health tool for aiding in the estimation of HIV incidence. Some incidence assay analytes are remarkably predictive of time since seroconversion and may be useful for additional applications, such as predicting recent transmission events during HIV outbreaks and informing prevention strategies. Plasma samples (n = 154) from a recent HIV-1 outbreak in a rural community in Indiana were tested with the customized HIV-1 Multiplex assay, based on the Bio-Rad Bio-Plex platform, which measures antibody response to HIV envelope antigens, gp120, gp160, and gp41. Assay cutoffs for each analyte were established to determine whether an individual seroconverted within 30, 60, or 90 days of the sample collection date. In addition, a novel bioinformatics method was implemented to infer infection dates of persons newly diagnosed with HIV during the outbreak. Sensitivity/specificity of the HIV-1 Multiplex assay for predicting seroconversion within 30, 60, and 90 days, based on a training data set, was 90.5%/95.4%, 94.1%/90%, and 89.4%/82.9%, respectively. Of 154 new diagnoses in Indiana between December 2014 and August 2016, the majority (71%) of recent infections (≤3 months since seroconversion) were identified between February and May 2016. The epidemiologic curve derived from the bioinformatics analysis indicated HIV transmission began as early as 2010, grew exponentially in 2014, and leveled off in April 2015. The HIV-1 Multiplex assay has the potential to identify and monitor trends in recent infection during an epidemic to assess the efficacy of programmatic or treatment interventions.

Short Communication: Dried Blood Spots Stored at Room Temperature Should Not Be Used for HIV Incidence Testing.

The limiting antigen (LAg)-avidity assay is a serologic assay used for cross-sectional HIV incidence testing. We compared the results obtained with the LAg-avidity assay using dried blood spot (DBS) samples stored at room temperature (18°C-25°C) or stored frozen at -80°C with results obtained from matched plasma samples. Matched DBS and plasma samples (306 paired samples) were collected in the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 068 trial in South Africa (2012-2014). The DBS were stored at room temperature before testing. Matched DBS and plasma samples (100 paired samples) from the Consortium for the Evaluation and Performance of HIV Incidence Assays (CEPHIA) were collected in 2016 and were stored at -80°C. All DBS testing was performed in 2017. Differences in normalized optical density (ODn) were compared between matched DBS and plasma samples. For DBS samples stored at room temperature (HPTN 068), the average difference in ODn values for plasma versus DBS was 1.49 (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.36-1.62). In contrast, when DBS samples were stored at -80°C (CEPHIA), the average difference in ODn values for plasma versus DBS was -0.22 (95% CI: -0.32 to -0.13). DBS samples stored at room temperature should not be used for cross-sectional HIV incidence testing with the LAg-avidity assay.

High avidity anti-integrase antibodies discriminate recent and non-recent HIV infection: Implications for HIV incidence assay

Estimation of HIV incidence provides real-time information of HIV transmission trends for decision makers. Anti-integrase antibodies are the last ones produced during seroconversion and presence of high-avidity anti-integrase antibodies indicates the chronicity of HIV infection. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of these antibodies in discriminating of recent from non-recent HIV infection. For this purpose, different ELISA formats were developed to detect high-avidity anti-integrase antibodies in a commercially available performance panel, and the best assay was selected for further evaluation. The false recent rate of the selected assay was evaluated in a panel of Iranian patients and compared to two commercial assays, BED-EIA and LAg-Avidity. While the false recent rate of the developed assay was 3.8%, it was 14.1% and 1.3% for BED-EIA and LAg-Avidity, respectively. To our knowledge, this is the first report to study the performance of high-avidity anti-integrase antibodies for classification of HIV infection. The preliminary results showed that the specificity of the newly developed assay is markedly higher than BED-EIA and is comparable with LAg-Avidity. The promising results point to the potential use of anti-integrase antibodies as a biomarker in HIV incidence laboratory tests or algorithms. The developed assay needs further evaluation in future.

Assays for estimating HIV incidence: updated global market assessment and estimated economic value

IntroductionAccurate incidence estimates are needed to characterize the HIV epidemic and guide prevention efforts. HIV Incidence assays are cost‐effective laboratory assays that provide incidence estimates from cross‐sectional surveys. We conducted a global market assessment of HIV incidence assays under three market scenarios and estimated the economic value of improved incidence assays.MethodsWe interviewed 27 stakeholders, and reviewed journal articles, working group proceedings, and manufacturers’ sales figures. We determined HIV incidence assay use in 2014, and estimated use in 2015 to 2017 and in 5 to 10‐years under three market scenarios, as well as the cost of conducting national and key population surveys using an HIV incidence assay with improved performance.ResultsGlobal 2014 HIV incidence assay use was 308,900 tests, highest in Asia and mostly for case‐ and population‐based surveillance. Estimated 2015 to 2017 use was 94,475 annually, with declines due to China and the United States discontinuing incidence assay use for domestic surveillance. Annual projected 5 to 10 year use under scenario 1 – no change in technology – was 94,475. For scenario 2 – a moderately improved incidence assay – projected annual use was 286,031. Projected annual use for scenario 3 – game‐changing technologies with an HIV incidence assay part of (a) standard confirmatory testing, and (b) standard rapid testing, were 500,000 and 180 million, respectively. As HIV incidence assay precision increases, decreased sample sizes required for incidence estimation resulted in $5 to 23 million annual reductions in survey costs and easily offset the approximately $3 million required to develop a new assay.ConclusionsImproved HIV incidence assays could substantially reduce HIV incidence estimation costs. Continued development of HIV incidence assays with improved performance is required to realize these cost benefits.

The HIV Genomic Incidence Assay Meets False Recency Rate and Mean Duration of Recency Infection Performance Standards

HIV incidence is a primary metric for epidemic surveillance and prevention efficacy assessment. HIV incidence assay performance is evaluated via false recency rate (FRR) and mean duration of recent infection (MDRI). We conducted a meta-analysis of 438 incident and 305 chronic specimens’ HIV envelope genes from a diverse global cohort. The genome similarity index (GSI) accurately characterized infection stage across diverse host and viral factors. All except one chronic specimen had GSIs below 0.67, yielding a FRR of 0.33 [0-0.98] %. We modeled the incidence assay biomarker dynamics with a logistic link function assuming individual variabilities in a Beta distribution. The GSI probability density function peaked close to 1 in early infection and 0 around two years post infection, yielding MDRI of 420 [361, 467] days. We tested the assay by newly sequencing 744 envelope genes from 59 specimens of 21 subjects who followed from HIV negative status. Both standardized residuals and Anderson-Darling tests showed that the test dataset was statistically consistent with the model biomarker dynamics. This is the first reported incidence assay meeting the optimal FRR and MDRI performance standards. Signatures of HIV gene diversification can allow precise cross-sectional surveillance with a desirable temporal range of incidence detection.

Performance characteristics of an antibody-based multiplex kit for determining recent HIV-1 infection

The availability of reliable laboratory methods for determining recent HIV infection is vital for accurate estimation of population-based incidence. The mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) and false recent rate (FRR) are critical parameters for HIV incidence assays, as they impact HIV incidence estimates and provide a measure of assay performance. The HIV-1 Multiplex assay is an in-house developed, magnetic bead-based assay that measures virus-specific antibody levels and avidity to multiple analytes. To ensure quality control and to facilitate transfer of the assay to external laboratories or testing facilities, the in-house assay has been adapted and produced in kit form. Here, we describe the performance characteristics of the multiplex kit and demonstrate the stability of the kit components over a one-year period. Two statistical methods were employed to estimate the MDRI of the individual analytes and five different algorithms, combining multiple analyte values. The MDRI estimates for the individual analytes and five algorithms were all between 200 and 300 days post-seroconversion, with no notable difference between the two statistical approaches. All five algorithms exhibited a 0% FRR with specimens from long-term, subtype B HIV-1-infected individuals. The assay parameters described in this study provide the necessary tools to implement the HIV-1 multiplex assay and improves the utility of the assay for field use.

HIV avidity index performance using a modified fourth-generation immunoassay to detect recent HIV infections.

Detecting recent HIV infections is important to evaluate incidence and monitor epidemic trends. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performance and accuracy of the avidity index (AI) for discriminating for recent HIV infections. We collected serum samples from HIV-1 positive individuals: A) with known date of infection (midpoint in time between last HIV-negative and first HIV-positive test); B) infected for >1 year. Samples were divided into two aliquots: one diluted with phosphate buffered saline (PBS) and the other with 1 M guanidine. Both aliquots were assayed by the Architect HIV Ag/Ab Combo 4th generation assay (Abbott). We compared AI found in recent (RI=<6 months from seroconversion) and established (EI) infections. The diagnostic accuracy was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The proportion of samples misclassified as recent (FRR) was calculated. In total, 647 samples were collected: 455 in group A (51.6% RI and 48.4% EI) and 192 in group B. Among these, sixteen samples were from elite controllers, 294 from treated patients, 328 from patients infected with non-B subtypes. Samples before antiretroviral initiation showed a mean AI significantly lower among RI compared to EI (0.66+0.28 vs. 1.00±0.12; p<0.000). The FRR was 0% using a cut-off of ≤0.70. An extremely low FRR was observed among elite controllers, samples with low VL or CD4. HIV subtype had no impact on AI misclassifications. All individuals in group A reached the AI threshold of 0.80 within 24 months after seroconversion. The AI is an accurate serological marker for discriminating recent from established HIV infections and meets WHO requirements for HIV incidence assays.

Moving towards a reliable HIV incidence test - current status, resources available, future directions and challenges ahead.

In 2011 the Incidence Assay Critical Path Working Group reviewed the current state of HIV incidence assays and helped to determine a critical path to the introduction of an HIV incidence assay. At that time the Consortium for Evaluation and Performance of HIV Incidence Assays (CEPHIA) was formed to spur progress and raise standards among assay developers, scientists and laboratories involved in HIV incidence measurement and to structure and conduct a direct independent comparative evaluation of the performance of 10 existing HIV incidence assays, to be considered singly and in combinations as recent infection test algorithms. In this paper we report on a new framework for HIV incidence assay evaluation that has emerged from this effort over the past 5 years, which includes a preliminary target product profile for an incidence assay, a consensus around key performance metrics along with analytical tools and deployment of a standardized approach for incidence assay evaluation. The specimen panels for this evaluation have been collected in large volumes, characterized using a novel approach for infection dating rules and assembled into panels designed to assess the impact of important sources of measurement error with incidence assays such as viral subtype, elite host control of viraemia and antiretroviral treatment. We present the specific rationale for several of these innovations, and discuss important resources for assay developers and researchers that have recently become available. Finally, we summarize the key remaining steps on the path to development and implementation of reliable assays for monitoring HIV incidence at a population level.

HIV incidence assays: Evaluation of three HIV Avidity enzyme immunoassays

HIV incidence assays: Evaluation of three HIV Avidity enzyme immunoassays

Immune Responses in Ugandan Women Infected With Subtypes A and D HIV Using the BED Capture Immunoassay and an Antibody Avidity Assay

Analysis of samples from Uganda using serologic HIV incidence assays reveal that individuals with subtype D infection often have weak humoral immune responses to HIV infection. It is unclear whether this reflects a poor initial response to infection or a waning antibody response later in infection. Samples (N = 2614) were obtained from 114 women aged 18-45 years in the Ugandan Genital Shedding and Disease Progression Study cohort (2001-2009; 82 subtype A, 32 subtype D; median 23 samples/women, range 3-41 samples, median follow-up of 6.6 years). Samples were analyzed using the BED capture immunoassay (cutoff, 0.8 OD-n) and the avidity assay (cutoff, 90% Avidity Index). Antibody maturation was assessed by having the BED capture enzyme immunoassay (BED-CEIA) or avidity value exceed the assay cutoff 1 or 2 years after infection. The waning antibody response was measured by having the BED-CEIA or avidity value fall >20% below the maximum value. For the BED-CEIA, 8 women with subtype A infection and 3 women with subtype D infection never progressed previously the cutoff value (median, 5.9 years follow-up after infection). Six women with subtype D infection never achieved an avidity index >90%. Subtype did not impact the proportion of women whose assay values regressed by >20% of the maximal value (for BED-CEIA: 33% for A, 41% for D, P = 0.51; for avidity: 1% for A, 6% for D, P = 0.19). The higher frequency of misclassification of individuals with long-term subtype D infection as recently infected using serologic incidence assays reflects a weak initial antibody response to HIV infection that is sustained over time.

Developing High-Throughput HIV Incidence Assay with Pyrosequencing Platform

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence is an important measure for monitoring the epidemic and evaluating the efficacy of intervention and prevention trials. This study developed a high-throughput, single-measure incidence assay by implementing a pyrosequencing platform. We devised a signal-masking bioinformatics pipeline, which yielded a process error rate of 5.8 × 10(-4) per base. The pipeline was then applied to analyze 18,434 envelope gene segments (HXB2 7212 to 7601) obtained from 12 incident and 24 chronic patients who had documented HIV-negative and/or -positive tests. The pyrosequencing data were cross-checked by using the single-genome-amplification (SGA) method to independently obtain 302 sequences from 13 patients. Using two genomic biomarkers that probe for the presence of similar sequences, the pyrosequencing platform correctly classified all 12 incident subjects (100% sensitivity) and 23 of 24 chronic subjects (96% specificity). One misclassified subject's chronic infection was correctly classified by conducting the same analysis with SGA data. The biomarkers were statistically associated across the two platforms, suggesting the assay's reproducibility and robustness. Sampling simulations showed that the biomarkers were tolerant of sequencing errors and template resampling, two factors most likely to affect the accuracy of pyrosequencing results. We observed comparable biomarker scores between AIDS and non-AIDS chronic patients (multivariate analysis of variance [MANOVA], P = 0.12), indicating that the stage of HIV disease itself does not affect the classification scheme. The high-throughput genomic HIV incidence marks a significant step toward determining incidence from a single measure in cross-sectional surveys. Annual HIV incidence, the number of newly infected individuals within a year, is the key measure of monitoring the epidemic's rise and decline. Developing reliable assays differentiating recent from chronic infections has been a long-standing quest in the HIV community. Over the past 15 years, these assays have traditionally measured various HIV-specific antibodies, but recent technological advancements have expanded the diversity of proposed accurate, user-friendly, and financially viable tools. Here we designed a high-throughput genomic HIV incidence assay based on the signature imprinted in the HIV gene sequence population. By combining next-generation sequencing techniques with bioinformatics analysis, we demonstrated that genomic fingerprints are capable of distinguishing recently infected patients from chronically infected patients with high precision. Our high-throughput platform is expected to allow us to process many patients' samples from a single experiment, permitting the assay to be cost-effective for routine surveillance.

Association of the ANRS-12126 Male Circumcision Project with HIV Levels among Men in a South African Township: Evaluation of Effectiveness using Cross-sectional Surveys

Randomized controlled trials have shown that voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces HIV infection by 50% to 60% in sub-Saharan African populations; however, little is known about the population-level effect of adult male circumcision (MC) as an HIV prevention method. We assessed the effectiveness of VMMC roll-out on the levels of HIV in the South African township of Orange Farm where the first randomized controlled trial (RCT) to test the effect of VMMC on HIV acquisition was conducted in 2002-2005. The Bophelo Pele project is a community-based campaign against HIV, which includes the roll-out of free VMMC. A baseline cross-sectional biomedical survey was conducted in 2007-2008 among a random sample of 1,998 men aged 15 to 49 (survey response rate 80.7%). In 2010-2011, we conducted a follow-up random survey among 3,338 men aged 15 to 49 (survey response rate 79.6%) to evaluate the project. Participants were interviewed, blood samples were collected and tested for HIV and recent HIV infection (using the BED HIV incidence assay), and MC status was assessed through a clinical examination. Data were analyzed using multivariate and propensity statistical methods. Owing to the VMMCs performed in the context of the RCT and the Bophelo Pele project, the prevalence rate of adult MC increased from 0.12 (95% CI 0.10-0.14) to 0.53 (95% CI 0.51-0.55). Without these VMMCs, the HIV prevalence rate in 2010-2011 would have been 19% (95% CI 12%-26%) higher (0.147 instead of 0.123). When comparing circumcised and uncircumcised men, no association of MC status with sexual behavior was detected. Among circumcised and uncircumcised men, the proportion consistently using condoms with non-spousal partners in the past 12 months was 44.0% (95% CI 41.7%-46.5%) versus 45.4% (95% CI 42.2%-48.6%) with weighted prevalence rate ratio (wPRR) = 0.94 (95% CI 0.85-1.03). The proportion having two or more non-spousal partners was 50.4% (95% CI 47.9%-52.9%) versus 44.2% (95% CI 41.3%-46.9%) with wPRR = 1.03 (95% CI 0.95-1.10). We found a reduction of BED-estimated HIV incidence rate ranging from 57% (95% CI 29%-76%) to 61% (95% CI 14%-83%) among circumcised men in comparison with uncircumcised men. Findings suggest that the roll-out of VMMC in Orange Farm is associated with a significant reduction of HIV levels in the community. The main limitation of the study is that it was not randomized and cannot prove a causal association. The roll-out of VMMC among adults in sub-Saharan Africa should be an international priority and needs to be accelerated to effectively combat the spread of HIV. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Differential Specificity of HIV Incidence Assays in HIV Subtypes A and D-Infected Individuals from Rakai, Uganda

Assays to determine HIV incidence from cross-sectional surveys have exhibited a high rate of false-recent misclassification in Kenya and Uganda where HIV subtypes A and D predominate. Samples from individuals infected with HIV for at least 2 years with known infecting subtype (133 subtype A, 373 subtype D) were tested using the BED-CEIA and an avidity assay. Both assays had a higher rate of false-recent misclassification for subtype D compared to subtype A (13.7% vs. 6.0%, p=0.02 for BED-CEIA; 11.0% vs. 1.5%, p<0.001 for avidity). For subtype D samples, false-recent misclassification by the BED-CEIA was also more frequent in women than men (15.0% vs. 5.6%, p=0.002), and for samples where that had an amino acid other than lysine at position 12 in the BED-CEIA peptide coding region (p=0.002). Furthermore in subtype D-infected individuals, samples misclassified by one assay were 3.5 times more likely to be misclassified by the other assay. Differential misclassification by infecting subtype of long-term infected individuals as recently infected makes it difficult to use these assays individually to estimate population level incidence without precise knowledge of the distribution of these subtypes within populations where subtype A and D cocirculate. The association of misclassification of the BED-CEIA with the avidity assay in subtype D-infected individuals limits the utility of using these assays in combination within this population.

Standardization and Monitoring of Laboratory Performance and Quality Assurance by Use of the Less-Sensitive HIV Incidence Assay

The Performance Evaluation Program for HIV-1 incidence tests provided quality assurance services to laboratories conducting the serological testing algorithm for recent HIV seroconversion by use of a modified less-sensitive version of the Vironostika HIV-1 MicroElisa System assay. We report on the performance of the assay using proficiency testing and quality control materials tested from 2001 to 2008. Two sets of 5 blinded serum panels using common calibration and quality control materials were tested. The mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation were calculated. Results were analyzed for misclassifications: false recent HIV infection errors (long-term infection classified as HIV infection less than 1 year), false long-term infection errors (HIV infection less than 1 year classified as long-term infection), and differences in standardized optical density means and variances over time. The false recent error rate was 1.26% (n = 2219). The false long-term error rate was 0.25% (n = 1618). No significant trends were observed for misclassification rates by year, and no significant trend in the standardized optical density over 7 years was observed. Laboratories using the less-sensitive Vironostika HIV-1 assay produced consistent results by use of a common calibrator and quality control materials.

Designing a genome-based HIV incidence assay with high sensitivity and specificity

Considerable inaccuracy in estimates of HIV incidence has been a serious obstacle to the development of efficient HIV/AIDS prevention and interventions. Accurately distinguishing recent or incident infections from chronic infections enables one to monitor epidemics and evaluate the impact of HIV prevention/intervention trials. However, serological testing has not been able to realize these promises due to a number of critical limitations. Our study is to design a novel scheme of identifying incident infections in a highly accurate manner, based on the characteristics of HIV gene diversification within an infected individual. We perform a comprehensive meta-analysis on 5596 full envelope HIV genes generated by single genome amplification-direct sequencing from 182 incident and 43 chronic cases. We devise a binary classification test based on the tail characteristics of the Hamming distance distribution of sequences. We identify a clear signature of incident infections, the presence of closely related strains in the sampled HIV envelope gene sequences in each HIV-infected patient, in both single-variant and multivariant transmissions. The sequence similarity used as a biomarker is found to have high specificity and sensitivity, greater than 95%, and is robust to viral and host-specific factors such as the clade of the viral strain, viral load, and the length and location of sequences in the HIV envelope gene. Because of rapid and continuing improvements in sequencing technology and cost, sequence-based incidence assays hold great promise as a means of quantifying HIV incidence from a single blood test.

Correction: More and Better Information to Tackle HIV Epidemics: Towards Improved HIV Incidence Assays

Correction: More and Better Information to Tackle HIV Epidemics: Towards Improved HIV Incidence Assays

More and Better Information to Tackle HIV Epidemics: Towards Improved HIV Incidence Assays

More and Better Information to Tackle HIV Epidemics: Towards Improved HIV Incidence Assays

Dual Testing Algorithm of BED-CEIA and AxSYM Avidity Index Assays Performs Best in Identifying Recent HIV Infection in a Sample of Rwandan Sex Workers

BackgroundTo assess the performance of BED-CEIA (BED) and AxSYM Avidity Index (Ax-AI) assays in estimating HIV incidence among female sex workers (FSW) in Kigali, Rwanda.Methodology and FindingsEight hundred FSW of unknown HIV status were HIV tested; HIV-positive women had BED and Ax-AI testing at baseline and ≥12 months later to estimate assay false-recent rates (FRR). STARHS-based HIV incidence was estimated using the McWalter/Welte formula, and adjusted with locally derived FRR and CD4 results. HIV incidence and local assay window periods were estimated from a prospective cohort of FSW. At baseline, 190 HIV-positive women were BED and Ax-AI tested; 23 were classified as recent infection (RI). Assay FRR with 95% confidence intervals were: 3.6% (1.2–8.1) (BED); 10.6% (6.1–17.0) (Ax-AI); and 2.1% (0.4–6.1) (BED/Ax-AI combined). After FRR-adjustment, incidence estimates by BED, Ax-AI, and BED/Ax-AI were: 5.5/100 person-years (95% CI 2.2–8.7); 7.7 (3.2–12.3); and 4.4 (1.4–7.3). After CD4-adjustment, BED, Ax-AI, and BED/Ax-AI incidence estimates were: 5.6 (2.6–8.6); 9.7 (5.0–14.4); and 4.7 (2.0–7.5). HIV incidence rates in the first and second 6 months of the cohort were 4.6 (1.6–7.7) and 2.2 (0.1–4.4).ConclusionsAdjusted incidence estimates by BED/Ax-AI combined were similar to incidence in the first 6 months of the cohort. Furthermore, false-recent rate on the combined BED/Ax-AI algorithm was low and substantially lower than for either assay alone. Improved assay specificity with time since seroconversion suggests that specificity would be higher in population-based testing where more individuals have long-term infection.