Historical Trends Research Articles

Longitudinal assessment of extreme climate events in Kinnaur district, Himachal Pradesh, north-western Himalaya, India.

It is vital to keep an eye on changes in climatic extremes because they set the stage for current and potential future climate, which usually have a reasonable adverse impact on ecosystems and society. The present study examines the variability and trends in precipitation and temperature across seasons in the Kinnaur district, offering valuable insights into the complex dynamics ofthe Himalayan climate. Using Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series (CRU TS) datasets from 1951 to 2021, the study analyzes the data to produce 28 climate indices based on India Meteorological Department (IMD) convention indices and Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Although there may be considerable variation in climate indices in terms of absolute values within different products, there is consensus in both long-term trends and inter-annual variability. Analysis shows that even within a small area, there is variability in the magnitude and direction of historic temperature trends. Initially, the datawere subjected to rigorous quality control procedures, which involved identifying anomalies. Statistical analysis like trend analysis, employing Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator, reveal significant (p < 0.05) increase in consecutive dry days (CDD) at 0.03days/year and decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) at 0.02days/year. Notably, the frequency of heavy precipitation occurrences showed an increasing trend. Changes in precipitation in the Western Himalaya are driven by a complex interplay of orographic effects, monsoonal dynamics, atmospheric circulation patterns, climate change, and localized factors such as topography, atmospheric circulation patterns, moisture sources, land-sea temperature contrasts, and anthropogenic influences. Moreover, in case of temperature indices, there is significant increasing trend observed. Temperature indices indicate a significant annual increase in warm nights (TN90p) at 0.06%/year and warm days (TX90p) at 0.11%/year. Extreme temperature events have been trending upward, with monthly daily maximum temperature (TXx) increasing by 1.5°C yearly. This study enhances our comprehension of the global warming phenomenon and underscores the importance of acknowledging alterations in the water cycle and their repercussions on hydrologic resources, agriculture, and livelihoods in the cold desert of the northwestern Indian Himalaya.

Investigation of the Historical Trends and Variability of Rainfall Patterns during the March–May Season in Rwanda

Investigation of the Historical Trends and Variability of Rainfall Patterns during the March–May Season in Rwanda

Unveiling Peru’s Agricultural Diversity: Navigating Historical and Future Trends in a Post-COVID-19 Context

Unveiling Peru’s Agricultural Diversity: Navigating Historical and Future Trends in a Post-COVID-19 Context

Revenue concentration and capital structure

PurposeWe conducted this study to examine the relationship between revenue concentration and a firm's financial leverage. We aimed to analyze whether revenue concentration influences a firm's capital structure decisions and whether this relationship is driven by customer-specific investments or the direct effect of revenue concentration itself. Additionally, we investigated the role of asset redeployability in mediating or moderating the relationship between revenue concentration and financial leverage.Design/methodology/approachThe paper investigates the relationship between revenue concentration and a firm's financial leverage. The results indicate a negative association between revenue concentration and financial leverage. This finding holds across various regression models and is statistically significant. Furthermore, the paper explores the potential role of asset redeployability in explaining the relationship between revenue concentration and financial leverage. The results indicate that even after controlling for asset redeployability, the negative relationship between revenue concentration and leverage remains significant, suggesting that revenue concentration affects capital structure decisions independently of the risks associated with relationship-specific investments. Robustness tests are conducted using a three-stage least squares approach to account for the simultaneity between revenue concentration, asset redeployability and capital structure.FindingsOur findings demonstrate that revenue concentration is negatively associated with financial leverage, even after accounting for asset redeployability. This suggests that revenue concentration affects capital structure decisions independently of the risks associated with customer-specific investments. Furthermore, we performed robustness tests to address potential simultaneity issues between revenue concentration, asset redeployability and capital structure.Research limitations/implicationsThe study relies on available data sources, which may have inherent limitations in terms of accuracy, completeness or consistency. The quality of the data used in the analysis could impact the robustness of the findings. Time Period: The study focuses on more recent years, which might limit the ability to compare the findings with studies conducted over different time periods. Historical trends or structural changes that could impact the relationship between revenue concentration and financial leverage might not be fully captured.Practical implicationsFirms with higher revenue concentration tend to have lower financial leverage. Recent years show a negative relationship between profitability and market leverage compared to earlier periods. Revenue concentration has a distinct effect on financial leverage, not fully explained by risks from relationship-specific investments or asset redeployability. Insights for firms in managing capital structure decisions, considering revenue concentration and its implications for leverage.Originality/valueThis research is one of the first papers that investigates the impact of revenue concentration on the capital structure choices of firms. By exploring the relationship between revenue concentration and financial leverage, the study contributes to the existing literature by shedding light on an underexplored area. Thus, this study adds originality to the field by addressing a research gap and contributing to the understanding of the relationship between revenue concentration and capital structure choices.

VedgeSat: An automated, open‐source toolkit for coastal change monitoring using satellite‐derived vegetation edges

AbstractPublic satellite platforms offer regular observations for global coastal monitoring and climate change risk management strategies. Unfortunately, shoreline positions derived from satellite imagery, representing changes in intertidal topography, are noisy and subject to tidal bias that requires correction. The seaward‐most vegetation boundary reflects a change indicator which shifts on event–decadal timescales, and informs coastal practitioners of storm damage, sediment availability and coastal landform health. We present and validate a new open‐source tool VedgeSat for identifying vegetation edges (VEs) from high (3 m) and moderate (10–30 m) resolution satellite imagery. The methodology is based on the CoastSat toolkit, with streamlined image processing using cloud‐based data management via Google Earth Engine. Images are classified using a newly trained vegetation‐specific neural network, and VEs are extracted at subpixel level using dynamic Weighted Peaks thresholding. We performed validation against ground surveys and manual digitisation of aerial imagery across eroding and accreting open coasts and estuarine environments at a site in Scotland. Smaller‐than‐pixel vegetation boundary detection was achieved across 83% of Sentinel‐2 imagery (Root Mean Square Error of 9.3 m). An overall RMSE of 19.0 m was achieved across Landsat 5 &amp; 8, Sentinel‐2 and PlanetScope images. Performance varied by coastal geomorphology, with highest accuracies across sandy open coasts owing to high spectral contrast and less false positives from intertidal vegetation. The VedgeSat tool can be readily applied in tandem with waterlines near‐globally, to support adaptation decisions with historic coastal trends across the whole shoreface, even in normally data‐scarce areas.

Duke William’s 1066 campaign, the historical climatology

ABSTRACT A number of studies have examined historical climatological trends back to the Middle Ages. However, few have investigated these trends near important historical sites such as medieval battlefields. Most studies on medieval battles and battlefields focus almost exclusively on interpreting the written records from a literary standpoint and on knowledge of the site on which the battle took place, with rarely much consideration for other perspectives. While the written records are important, only focusing on them limits understanding and ignores the environment itself. A historical climatological perspective would contribute to the study of medieval warfare by exploring relevant long-term climatic proxies as well as mapping weather conditions around the time of the campaign and battle. As an example, this study will investigate the weather during Duke William’s voyage to England in 1066. The study concludes with a discussion of the implications of these techniques for applying weather analyses to other historical events.

Point-of-care testing: a critical analysis of the market and future trends

Point-of-care testing (POCT) involves conducting diagnostic tests outside the laboratory. These tests are utilized for their quick and reliable results in detecting chronic diseases and acute infections. We examined the historical market value trends of the POCT industry and projected its future growth. POCT devices offer several advantages, such as portability, no specific storage requirements, and simplicity of use. However, issues such as inaccurate results can reduce demand for POCT compared to traditional laboratory testing alternatives. While the benefits of POCT are clear, it’s important to acknowledge the challenges. The accuracy of POCT devices can be compromised due to factors such as user error, environmental conditions, and limitations in technology. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness of these devices is often a concern, particularly in resource-limited settings. The regulatory landscape for POCT is also complex and varies by region, which can pose challenges for manufacturers and end-users. Improvements in POCT devices’ sensitivity, specificity, cost, and turnaround time for test results could enhance their utility. Enhancements to a POCT device should be considered if they are economically viable and lead to a significant increase in demand. Our financial analysis of the POCT market revealed a positive growth trend. We identified potential areas for growth that could help the industry progress and expand in line with its projected growth in the coming years. The industry could focus on integrating intelligent technologies into POCT devices and collaborating with the innovative technology sector to increase revenue. It could also develop more sensitive and accurate POCT devices for non-communicable diseases. Another potential area of growth is in diseases that require continuous patient monitoring but where conventional clinical testing is time-consuming. Enhancing the POCT devices used in these areas could revolutionize medical diagnosis and potentially save many lives, provided they meet clinical standards.

Sustainable Energy Consumption Analysis through Data Driven Insights

Energy is the backbone of our society, supporting our daily activities and driving progress. It plays a crucial role in shaping our modern way of life. The future of global energy consumption is influenced by many factors, including demographics, economic dynamics, technological developments, political actions, environmental demands and geopolitical considerations. As the world's population continues to grow and urbanize, the demand for energy is increasing. At the same time, rapid technological innovations are shaping the energy landscape and changing production, distribution and consumption patterns. In the midst of this development, it is very important to optimize energy consumption, accurately anticipate needs, curb climate change, limit emissions of greenhouse gasses, fight against pollution and promote sustainability. This study includes an in-depth analysis of historical consumption trends, assessing the multiple benefits of renewable energy integration, estimating carbon emissions, formulating practical policy recommendations and providing empirically informed insights. The work is based on various data obtained from platforms such as Kaggle and using advanced visualization techniques such as Power BI dashboards. The study provides invaluable perspectives on future energy needs, the penetration of renewable sources into the energy mix, and the strategic needs to achieve sustainable energy use.

Predicted impact of banning nonessential, energy-dense food and beverages in schools in Mexico: A microsimulation study.

Childhood obesity is a growing concern worldwide. School-based interventions have been proposed as effective means to improve nutritional knowledge and prevent obesity. In 2023, Mexico approved a reform to the General Education Law to strengthen the ban of sales and advertising of nonessential energy-dense food and beverages (NEDFBs) in schools and surroundings. We aimed to predict the expected one-year change in total caloric intake and obesity prevalence by introducing the ban of NEDFBs sales in schools, among school-aged children and adolescents (6 to 17 years old) in Mexico. We used age-specific equations to predict baseline fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM) and then estimated total energy intake (TEI) per day. The TEI after the intervention was estimated under 4 scenarios: (1) using national data to inform the intervention effect; (2) varying law compliance; (3) using meta-analytic data to inform the intervention effect size on calories; and (4) using national data to inform the intervention effect by sex and socioeconomic status (SES). We used Hall's microsimulation model to estimate the potential impact on body weight and obesity prevalence of children and adolescents 1 year after implementing the intervention in Mexican schools. We found that children could reduce their daily energy intake by 33 kcal/day/person (uncertainty interval, UI, [25, 42] kcal/day/person), reducing on average 0.8 kg/person (UI [0.6, 1.0] kg/person) and 1.5 percentage points (pp) in obesity (UI [1.1, 1.9] pp) 1 year after implementing the law. We showed that compliance will be key to the success of this intervention: considering a 50% compliance the intervention effect could reduce 0.4 kg/person (UI [0.3, 0.5] kg/person). Our sensitivity analysis showed that the ban could reduce body weight by 1.3 kg/person (UI [0.8, 1.8] kg/person) and up to 5.4 kg/person (UI [3.4, 7.5] kg/person) in the best-case scenario. Study limitations include assuming that obesity and the contribution of NEDFBs consumed at school remain constant over time, assuming full compliance, and not considering the potential effect of banning NEDFBs in stores near schools. Even in the most conservative scenario, banning sales of NEDFBs in schools is expected to significantly reduce obesity, but achieving high compliance will be key to its success. - School-based interventions have been recognized as effective means to improve nutritional knowledge and prevent obesity-related diseases.- In December 2023, the Chamber of Representatives of Mexico approved an amendment that strengthens and updates the General Education Law (Article 75) and nutritional guidelines to ban the sales and advertising of nonessential energy-dense food and beverages (NEDFBs) in schools. - We used age-specific equations to predict baseline fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM) and total energy intake (TEI) per day.- We used microsimulation modeling to predict body weight and obesity prevalence of children and adolescents 1 year after implementing the intervention in Mexican schools.- Our modeling study suggests that an important impact on obesity prevalence can be expected if the law is implemented and enforced as intended. - If successful, this law could serve as an example beyond Mexico on how to achieve changes in body weight through school food regulation.- An important limitation of our main scenario is that we assumed full compliance of schools with the law, yet lower compliance will reduce its impact. We also did not consider historical trends on obesity or NEDFBs consumed in schools during our 1 year simulation, and we considered only the ban impact inside schools, excluding effects near and outside schools.

Emerging contaminants in water environments: progress, evolution, and prospects

ABSTRACT This article employs bibliometric tools like VOSviewer, Bibliometrix, and CiteSpace for a comprehensive visual analysis of 1,612 documents on Emerging Contaminants in Waters from the Web of Science database. The objective is to elucidate the historical development, research hotspots, and trends in international studies of this field, offering valuable insights and guidance for future research directions. The analysis reveals a consistent increase in publications from 2003 to 2023, with the United States, China, and Spain being the most prolific contributors. A detailed examination of keyword co-occurrence and cluster analysis shows a predominant focus on themes such as pollutant detection, risk assessment, and biogeochemical cycling. Furthermore, the study underscores the significance of forming interdisciplinary networks among authors and institutions, highlighting its critical role in enhancing the quality and innovation of scientific research. The findings of this study not only chart the progression and focal points of research in this domain but also underscore the pivotal role of international collaboration, serving as an indispensable reference for shaping future research trajectories and fostering global cooperation.

Themes and trends in marathon performance research: a comprehensive bibliometric analysis from 2009 to 2023

Background: When marathon runners break the 2-h barrier at the finishing line, it attracts global attention. This study is aimed to conduct a bibliometric analysis of publications in the field of marathon running, analyze relevant research contributors, and visualize the historical trends of marathon performance research over the past 15 years.Methods: On 8 December 2023, we extracted high-quality publication data from the Web of Science Core Collection spanning from 1 January 2009 to 30 November 2023. We conducted bibliometric analysis and research history visualization using the R language packages biblioshiny, VOSviewer, and CiteSpace.Results: A total of 1,057 studies were published by 3,947 authors from 1,566 institutions across 63 countries/regions. USA has the highest publication and citation volume, while, the University of Zurich being the most prolific research institution. Keywords analysis revealed several hotspots in marathon research over the past 3 years: (1) physiology of the elite marathon runners, (2) elite marathon training intensity and pacing strategies, (3) nutritional strategies for elite marathon runners, (4) age and sex differences in marathon performance, (5) recovery of inflammatory response and muscle damage.Conclusion: This study presents the first comprehensive bibliometric analysis of marathon performance research over the past 15 years. It unveils the key contributors to marathon performance research, visually represents the historical developments in the field, and highlights the recent topical frontiers. The findings of this study will guide future research by identifying potential hotspots and frontiers.

Trends in botanical exploration in Nigeria forecast over 1000 yet undescribed vascular plant species.

Taxonomists are primary actors of biodiversity assessment. At the same time, there is awareness by the taxonomic community at large that the field is going through a crisis, sometimes referred to as the 'taxonomic impediment'. Coupled with the ongoing biodiversity crisis, or 6th mass extinction, this biodiversity impedance puts at risk the target set in the Convention on Biological Diversity's (CBD) Global Biodiversity Framework vision 2050, which calls for urgent action to '… put biodiversity on a path to recovery by 2030 for the benefit of planet and people'. This risk is particularly pronounced in tropical African countries where taxonomic studies are done on an ad hoc basis. In this study, our aim is to investigate the historical trends in botanical exploration of vascular plants in Nigeria and forecast the near-term (50-year) description of presently unknown species, which we use to discuss scenarios of taxonomic effort that may be necessary for a comprehensive biodiversity assessment in the country. The study is based on a dataset from the World Checklist of Vascular Plants, containing all vascular plant species reported to occur in Nigeria. We fit nested Bayesian time series regressions to estimate the long-term trend in the rate of description of vascular plant species in Nigeria. From these models, we use an ensemble forecast to estimate the number of species descriptions by the year 2070, and then evaluate the description rates per taxonomist required to meet this estimate under different totals of active taxonomists. We find a striking difference in species description between Nigerian botanists and their foreign counterparts, with the former contributing relatively small numbers. Additionally, only a fraction of the authors involved in describing Nigeria's vascular plants are of indigenous origin. Our study reveals that the number of new species described annually exhibits a long-term increasing trend, with an average of 19.5 species described per year. However, after taking into account year-to-year variability and the number of taxonomists active in a given year, the long-term trend in species descriptions credibly declines over time. While the number of authors involved in describing species has generally increased over time, it has remained stable since the 1950s. Predictions for the number of new species descriptions by 2070 vary by model, with an ensemble prediction estimating 1140 species descriptions, but ranging from 1004 to 2239 between individual models. The study estimates that current levels of taxonomic activity should lead to a 20 % increase in known species of vascular plants in Nigeria over the next 50 years, which is still probably an underestimate of the true, unknown species richness. Urgent action is needed to address the taxonomic impediment so that local taxonomic studies in tropical African countries can achieve the CBD's Global Biodiversity Framework vision 2050. Here, we outline some key pathways to achieving this goal.

Occupational Therapy in Psychiatric Short-Term Hospitalization Units: Scoping Review.

Given the context, the overarching aim is to identify scientific publications on occupational therapy in Psychiatric-Short-Term-Hospitalization-Units. Specific objectives include: (a) Analyzing the historical development of this research area; (b) Synthesizing existing evidence on the nature of documentary sources on occupational therapy in in Psychiatric-Short-Term-Hospitalization-Units; (c) Detailing the volume of scientific literature on occupational therapy in these units; (e) Evaluating available evidence on occupational therapy interventions to improve functionality, quality of life, and recovery in individuals admitted to in Psychiatric-Short-Term-Hospitalization-Units. A scoping review method was employed to conduct a historical mapping of research on in Psychiatric-Short-Term-Hospitalization-Units. The review proceeded in five stages following PRISMA guidelines. After applying selection criteria, the search identified 446 references. Findings are presented under three headings: (a) Historical trends in the scientific literature on occupational therapy and in Psychiatric-Short-Term-Hospitalization-Units; (b) Nature and volume of articles included in the occupational therapy synthesis in Psychiatric Short-Term Hospitalization Units; (c) Data extraction on methodological variables in the research of occupational therapy articles in in Psychiatric-Short-Term-Hospitalization-Units; and (d) Data extraction on research outcome variables of occupational therapy articles in Psychiatric Short-Term Hospitalization Units. The growth of occupational therapy in in Psychiatric-Short-Term-Hospitalization-Units is emphasized, with an increase in qualitative studies. Occupational therapy is underscored as an integral part of care, supporting the diversity and effectiveness of interventions. Common diagnoses include schizophrenia and depressive disorders. Group interventions and the spiritual dimension positively influence the quality of care and meaningful routines for recovery in in Psychiatric-Short-Term-Hospitalization-Units.

Towards food security: Exploring the spatio-temporal dynamics of soybean in India

India is the world’s largest edible oil importer, and soybean oil accounts for a major portion of those imports, with implications for the Indian economy. Despite being the 4th largest globally in terms of harvested soybean area and 5th largest in terms of production, India is still heavily dependent on imports to meet the vegetable oil requirement for its population. It is therefore imperative to understand the dynamics and trends in India’s soybean production to help the country achieve self-sufficiency in edible oils. This study provides the first spatially explicit analysis of soybean in India, using long-term spatial and temporal statistics at national and subnational levels, using spatial and temporal statistical analysis models to examine the historical trends and its future prospects. Our analysis details the overall soybean expansion across the country and the increase in production but we also note that the annual growth rate has declined in each consecutive decade even though the area continues to expand. The average national yield has been stagnant at around 1 T/Ha but for some of the low-producing districts, a higher yield of more than 3 T/ha is reported. For most major producing districts, soybean yields are below 1.5 T/Ha. The state of Madhya Pradesh which was the major soybean producer is now matched by the state of Maharashtra in terms of production, however, Madhya Pradesh still has the largest area under soybean. We analyzed soybean hotspot expansion in India and found that the mean center of the soybean area and production has shifted approximately 93 km towards the south and 24 km to the west as the crop is rapidly being adopted in the southern and western parts of India expanding the hotspot in these parts. District-level analysis showed that the total number of districts constituting hotspots of soybean cultivation in India has increased from 29 to 42 in three decades. Furthermore, analysis of soybean oil and meal consumption with respect to the national population, import, export, domestic production, GDP per capita, and price of soybean oil and meal suggests that soybean oil and meal are highly correlated with GDP per capita and population, indicating that consumption of soybean oil and meal is likely to increase as GDP per capita increases, and future demand is expected to rise with the anticipated growth in the Indian population. Increased soybean production can play a significant role in increasing national food security for India and reducing dependence on foreign oil imports and also help the economy with soy meal exports. Understanding the spatiotemporal variability in area and yield will help target interventions to increase production. Given the overall low yields with high variability in production, particularly in recent years primarily due to successive extreme rains and droughts in major producing districts and the overall need to increase production to meet the country’s demand, there is a pressing need for government policies and research aimed at narrowing the yield gap and developing soybean varieties that are more productive and resilient to climate change.

The Critical Role of Energy Intensity in Decarbonizing ASEAN: Integrating Growth and Emissions Reductions

This research analyzes drivers of CO2 emissions across ASEAN countries from 1971-2017 to inform effective policies for sustainable decarbonized development. The goal is to identify critical factors influencing emissions growth and reductions to guide strategic climate mitigation planning. Data includes 3128 emissions, GDP, population, and energy consumption observations from 9 ASEAN nations. Results using the Kaya Index and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition reveal GDP growth and population as primary drivers of increasing emissions, while energy efficiency dampens growth. Indonesia saw the highest emissions growth, driven by population and economic expansion. Thailand's phenomenal GDP growth of 3003.7% led to its emission increases. Singapore and the Philippines achieved notable reductions. Findings suggest integrated policies like clean energy, efficiency gains, infrastructure planning, and low-carbon economic reform are needed. Transitioning towards affordable clean energy systems with proactive leadership can enable ASEAN to sustain growth while mitigating climate risks. Further research should identify optimal policy mixes to maximize socio-economic progress and welfare while meeting urgent emission targets tailored to each nation. This study provides vital insights into key factors influencing ASEAN emissions and highlights pathways towards sustainable decarbonized development. The analysis of historical trends aims to inform strategic policymaking for decarbonization.

Reactivity and bioconcentration of stable cesium in a hyperturbid fluvial-estuarine continuum: A combination of field observations and geochemical modeling

Effective, post-accidental management needs an accurate understanding of the biogeochemical behavior of radionuclides in surface environments at a regional scale. Studies on stable isotopes (element homologs) can improve this knowledge. This work focuses on the biogeochemical behavior of stable cesium (Cs) along a major European fluvial-estuarine system, the Gironde Estuary (SW France). We present results obtained from (i) a long-term monitoring (2014–2017) of dissolved (Csd) and particulate (Csp) Cs concentrations at five sites along the freshwater continuum of the Garonne watershed, (ii) Csd and Csp concentrations during four oceanographic campaigns at contrasting hydrological conditions along longitudinal profiles of the estuarine system, (iii) a 24 h cycle of Csp at the estuary mouth, and (iv) a historical trend of Cs bioconcentration in wild oysters at the estuary mouth (RNO/ROCCH, 1984–2017). In addition, we model the partitioning of Cs within the estuarine environment for clay mineral interactions via PhreeqC. At fluvial sites, we observe a geogenic dependence of the Csp and a seasonal variability of Csd, with a downstream increase of the solid-liquid partitioning (log10 Kd values from 3.64 to 6.75 L kg−1) for suspended particulate matter (SPM) < 200 mg L−1. Along the estuarine salinity gradients, Cs shows a non-conservative behavior where fresh SPM (defined as Cs-depleted particles recently put in contact with Csd) act as a Cs sink during both flood and low discharge (drought) conditions. This sorption behavior was explained by the geochemical model, highlighting the relevance of ionic strength, water and SPM residence times. However, at high salinities, the overall log10 Kd value decreases from 6.02 to 5.20 for SPM ∼300–350 mg L−1 due to the Csd oceanic endmember. Despite wild oysters showing low bioconcentration factors (∼1220 L kg−1) at the estuary mouth, they are sensitive organisms to Cs fluxes.

Examining a 12-year experience within Kazakhstan’s national heart transplantation program

Kazakhstan has one of the lowest heart transplantation (HTx) rates globally, but there are no studies evaluating the outcomes of HTx. This study aimed to provide a comprehensive analysis of the national HTx program over a 12-year period (2012–2023). Survival analysis of the national HTx cohort was conducted using life tables, Kaplan‒Meier curves, and Cox regression methods. Time series analysis was applied to analyze historical trends in HTx per million population (pmp) and to make future projections until 2030. The number of patients awaiting HTx in Kazakhstan was evaluated with a regional breakdown. The pmp rates of HTx ranged from 0.06 to 1.08, with no discernible increasing trend. Survival analysis revealed a rapid decrease in the first year after HTx, reaching 77.0% at 379 days, with an overall survival rate of 58.1% at the end of the follow-up period. Among the various factors analyzed, recipient blood levels of creatinine and total bilirubin before surgery, as well as the presence of infection or sepsis and the use of ECMO after surgery, were found to be significant contributors to the survival of HTx patients. There is a need for public health action to improve the HTx programme.

Water-energy trajectories for urban water and wastewater reveal the impact of city strategies

The global water industry has a greater emphasis on energy management than ever before. The confluence of rising energy demand and costs, and net-zero greenhouse gas emission targets means the sector must rapidly transition to a new ‘energy future’. Yet, few cities have assessed the long-term energy use of their water and wastewater systems. Here, we undertake a novel and integrated assessment of the historical trends of energy use for water and wastewater in three Australian and two US cities, collectively 17 million people. The key research question is what were the historical trends of energy use for water supply and wastewater treatment, and what can we understand about the drivers? The research contributes a first systematic time-series assessment of energy trajectories of both water and wastewater, across multiple cities. Uniquely, it integrates long-term (up to 20 years) energy dynamics in a comparative analysis. The work also contributes a qualitative analysis of driving factors behind the observed energy variations. The time-series analysis (2001−2020) identifies how energy use is evolving through time in widely differing climate, urban and water infrastructure conditions. The cities studied demonstrated downward trends in water use by 30–42% and wastewater collected by 5–30%, primarily due to water conservation and drought-related restrictions. Annual per-capita energy use for water supply reduced in Los Angeles (−58%, from 276 to 116.5 kWh/p/a), San Diego (−59%, from 503.7 to 204.2 kWh/p/a), Sydney (−26%, from 40.6 to 30.1 kWh/p/a) and increased in Melbourne (+859%, from 15.7 to 150.6 kWh/p/a) and Perth (+139%, from 118.1 to 281.9 kWh/p/a). Compared to water supply, energy use for wastewater was far more stable (it varied between 45 and 85 kWh/p/a), and not the crucial contributor to overall energy use dynamics. The significant increase in seawater desalination is identified as the primary driver of increased energy use in the three Australian cities. To offset this huge demand, developing renewable energy generation emerged as the key strategy. It causes high fluctuation of renewable energy use shares (Sydney: 317 GWh, accounting for 48.5% energy use for water and wastewater in 2011; compared to 19 GWh, accounting for only 2.5% in 2008). In contrast, both Los Angeles and San Diego managed to considerably reduce energy use by decreasing their imported water volume and energy intensity (the result of an adjusted supply portfolio). However, the absence of consistently comprehensive water/energy/renewable energy data remains a significant hurdle for a thorough quantitative analysis of drivers. Given these observations, it is evident that detailed quantitative analysis for influencing factors (e.g. water use, climate, infrastructure upgrading, sustainability targets), requires separately reported energy use for both water supply and wastewater, reported water from categorized sources and significant other data. By addressing these issues, we can have a clear path towards an energy-efficient, sustainable urban water system with net-zero emissions.

Climate change adaptation strategies among smallholder farmers in Senegal’s semi-arid zone: role of socio-economic factors and institutional supports

In dryland agricultural systems, developing appropriate climate-smart technology (CST) options is important to adapt agriculture to climate change and transition toward sustainability, as well as increasing productivity and incomes. This study examines the impact of socio-economic and institutional support on community responses to climate change and the impact of changes in three selected regions of Senegal (Meouane, Thiel, and Daga Birame), which fall within different rainfall gradients. It captures community perceptions of climate change, compares them to long-term meteorological data, and identifies site-specific response strategies. Communities are randomly selected from a list of communities within the target sites. We used a two-stage stratified sampling method to select sample households. First, purposive sampling was conducted to select at least six (6) villages as a cluster within each rainfall gradient. Likewise, the selection of households in each cluster was based on the main value chains of crops grown in the study area, namely groundnut, millet, black pea, and livestock. A total of 145 households participated in this study. Data from surveys conducted during the 2022 post-harvest season were analyzed using descriptive statistics and logit models. The analysis found that smallholders have a comprehensive understanding of climate indicators, including annual rainfall, shortened crop seasons, and rising temperatures, compared to historical data trends. Additionally, the results highlight how farmers view the negative impacts of seasonal rainfall deficiencies (72%), delayed start of the growing season (88%), frequent dry spells (68%), and longer dry spells (76%), which ultimately lead to decreased grain and fodder yields. The logit model also highlights the importance of socio-economic and institutional factors such as access to credit, extension services, agricultural experience, frequency of interaction with extension workers, and access to government subsidies. These factors play a crucial role in farmers’ decision to adopt CST. Given the specificity of community contexts, these insights have important implications for guiding policymakers and making it easier to reduce climate risk among smallholder farmers.

Water Transfer Energy Efficiency Index for inter‐basin water transfer projects

AbstractInter‐basin water transfer projects (WTPs) address water scarcity by lifting water uphill, posing energy challenges due to diverse topography. This study therefore analyses historical trends in WTP distance, average annual water volumes delivered, water lift and pumping capacity to develop the Water Transfer Energy Efficiency Index (WTEEI) and apply it for the assessment of WTPs. Results indicate that the WTEEI is a valuable tool for evaluating WTP energy efficiency. While no definitive trend in WTEEI values was observed, the findings suggest the need for monitoring of energy use of WTPs and more research to better understand and improve the energy efficiency of these large‐scale infrastructure projects. By introducing a simple, intuitive and rapid assessment tool for evaluating energy efficiency in WTPs, this study addresses a critical gap in the water–energy field, namely, the evaluation of energy usage in WTPs and the identification of energy‐efficiency improvements for current and future WTPs.