Historical Persistence Research Articles

The standard errors of persistence

Many studies of historical persistence find that modern outcomes strongly reflect characteristics of the same places in the distant past. However they rely on data that often exhibit extreme spatial trends and autocorrelation, suggesting that their unusually large t-statistics may be due to inadequately controlling for spurious correlation. To analyze this we introduce a new regression procedure and two diagnostic tests of no treatment effect: (a) a placebo test where the treatment is replaced with spatial noise and (b) a synthetic outcomes test of the hypothesis that the outcome is generated by a trend plus a spatial noise process independent of the treatment. We then show how reliable regression results can be obtained by adding a low dimensional spatial basis to the regression of interest, and applying a large cluster standard error correction. Examining 30 persistence studies in leading journals we find that few approach significance at conventional levels. Our procedure applies to regressions with spatial observations more generally and is implemented in an open source package.

Infrastructures of race? Colonial indigenous segregation and contemporary land values

We investigate the persistent impact of a colonial segregation policy on land values in modern Mexico City. During colonial times, Indigenous communities were confined, with varying degrees of success, to settlements known as pueblos de indios. Using historical records, we exploit quasi-random variation due to the pueblos’ catchment areas and use a Regression Discontinuity Design to estimate the causal effects of pueblos on land prices. We find a 5% land value penalty for areas affected by the colonial policy. The penalty is exacerbated for the pueblos formerly inhabited exclusively by Indigenous populations. Historical evidence and novel digitized maps reveal that these land value penalties have been driven over the past two centuries by low public goods provision, negative economic expectations, and the historical sorting of working-class individuals who built small housing structures that are second-nature factors. Moreover, in contemporary data, we observe discontinuities in housing overcrowding and public goods quality within the pueblos’ catchment areas. Our results underscore the repercussions of colonial policies on contemporary spatial equilibria, clarifying the mechanisms driving historical persistence and offering implications for urban policies.

The attitude of Ukrainian society toward equal rights and opportunities in the military sphere

Ensuring gender equality in general and in the military sphere during wartime is an important component of democratic development, particularly in Ukrainian society. At the beginning of the article, the international and Ukrainian experience of ensuring equal rights and opportunities in the military sphere was studied; the experience of integrating women into the armed forces of such countries as Norway, Israel, the United States of America, and Canada is systematized. The peculiarities of the involvement of women in the military sphere of Ukrainian society from a historical perspective are clarified.What do Ukrainians think about the involvement of women in the military, especially during the Russian-Ukrainian war and after the full-scale invasion? The empirical part of the work is based on the analysis of quantitative data obtained as a result of three representative surveys from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) in 2018 and the research agency “Info Sapiens” in 2023 and 2024. Accordingly, the dynamics of Ukrainian society’s attitude to gender equality in the military sphere in 2018, 2023, and 2024, including, depending on socio-demographic indicators, were revealed. Finally, the public opinion of the Ukrainian society about the option of the army, which should be introduced in Ukraine, was studied.The results of a survey of Ukrainian society over the last six years of the Russo-Ukrainian war demonstrate wave-like support for egalitarian ideas regarding the policy of equal rights and opportunities in the military sphere. One year after the full-scale invasion (in 2023), support increased, and two years later (in 2024), it was back to 2018 levels.In general, more than half of surveyed Ukrainians, both men and women, support the statement that women should be given equal opportunities with men to work in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and other military formations. The level of support is higher among those with higher education as well as among people in the older age group.It is important to add that, among other things, this is influenced by the historical persistence of the tradition of women’s participation in combat operations, which has been traced since the First World War.Ukrainian society supports the idea of a rather American model of the army – the conscription of both men and women only voluntarily (under contract). On the other hand, support for the Israeli model – the conscription of all men and all women – is very low. The current version of the army – the conscription of all men and only some women – is also not very popular in Ukrainian society.

Український інтермедіальний резистанс у мілітарному світі

This article explores the historical persistence and motivation behind the intermedial practice of transforming verbal texts into musical ones, particularly focusing on Ukrainian embaterias and songs inspired by the russia-ukraine war, rich in motives from the heroics of the rank to the lyrical and tragic experiences of the resistance personality. It examines the dynamic synthesis of poetic and musical texts, tracing back to the practices of poets, composers, and singers from the Legion of the Ukrainian Sich Riflemen (Ukrainski Sichovi striltsi, USS). Drawing on the experience of Cossack and Opryshky songs, folklore, and early modernism, these artists created a unique repertoire that documents the artistic and freedom-loving nature of Ukrainians, tested by the harsh realities of war. Their works, reflecting the soul of the people, have become an integral part of Ukrainian folk songs. Similarly, poets’ works of Ukrainian Insurgent Army (Ukrainska Povstanska Armiia, UPA) during and after World War II, set to music, provided an adequate response to the brutal realities of their time. This tradition has been preserved and gained new significance during the Russia-Ukraine war, declared by the Moscow State Duma of Ukraine on March 1, 2014, full-scale after February 24, 2022. Among the poets whose words have been set to music are graduates of the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, participants in military operations within the Ukrainian Armed Forces (such as Dmytro Luniaka) and the territorial defense (Ihor Astapenko). Academician Rostyslav Radyshevskyi has also actively contributed to these embaterias. Many songs are performed by serviceman Taras Kompanichenko. These texts, resembling pieces of a puzzle, will eventually form a coherent picture of intermedial creativity during the war, viewed through the historical dynamics of the genre.

Geography and persistence of entrepreneurship in Russia

ABSTRACT Can entrepreneurial activity be stronger and more persistent than the continuity of socialist institutions? The answer to this question is overwhelmingly positive. Using the historical data on entrepreneurship, retail trade and cooperatives in Russian regions, this study shows a strong persistence of entrepreneurship activity in Russia during the period 1926–2018, while we also evidence that the restructuring of the Soviet economy resulted in a structural break in the 1970s. By distinguishing three periods of 1998–99, 2000–07 and 2008–18 since the transition started, we demonstrate that the historical persistence of entrepreneurship is not constant and may change from one period to another.

Modeling Spatial Heterogeneity and Historical Persistence: Nazi Concentration Camps and Contemporary Intolerance

A wealth of recent research in comparative politics examines how spatial variation in historical conditions shapes modern political outcomes. In an article in the American Political Science Review, Homola, Pereira, and Tavits argue that Germans who live nearer to former Nazi concentration camps are more likely to display out-group intolerance. Clarifying the conceptual foundations of posttreatment bias and reviewing the historical record on postwar state creation in Germany, we argue that state-level differences confound the relationship between distance to camps and out-group intolerance. Using publicly available European Values Survey data and electoral results from 2017, we find no consistent evidence that distance to camps is related to contemporary values. Our findings have implications for literatures on historical persistence, causal inference with spatial data, Holocaust studies, and outgroup tolerance.

Multilevel analysis of integration and disparity in the mammalian skull.

Biological variation is often considered in a scalable hierarchy, e.g., within the individual, within the populations, above the species level. Morphological integration, the concept of covariation among constituent parts of an organism, is also hierarchical; the degree to which these "modules" covary is a matter of the scale of the study as well as underlying processes driving the covariation. Multilevel analyses of trait covariation are a valuable tool to infer the origins and historical persistence of morphological diversity. Here, we investigate concordance in patterns of integration and modularity across three biological levels of variation: within a species, within two genera-level radiations, and among species at the family level. We demonstrate this approach using the skull of mammalian family Leporidae (rabbits and hares), which is morphologically diverse and has a rare-among-mammals functional signal of locomotion adaptation. We tested three alternative hypotheses of modularity; from the most supported we investigated disparity and integration of each module to infer which is most responsible for patterns of cranial variation across these levels, and whether variation is partitioned consistently across levels. We found a common pattern of modularity underlies leporid cranial diversity, though there is inconsistency across levels in each module's disparity and integration. The face module contributes the most to disparity at all levels, which we propose is facilitating evolutionary diversity in this clade. Therefore, the distinctive facial tilt of leporids is an adaptation to locomotory behavior facilitated by a modular system that allows lineages to respond differently to selection pressures.

Historical Persistence, Possibilism and Utopias in Latin America and the Caribbean

Historical Persistence, Possibilism and Utopias in Latin America and the Caribbean

ФРАЗЕОЛОГІЯ ДІЛОВОЇ ДОКУМЕНТАЦІЇ ІВАНА МАЗЕПИ В КОНТЕКСТІ РОЗВИТКУ ФРАЗЕОЛОГІЧНОГО ФОНДУ УКРАЇНСЬКОЇ МОВИ

The aim of the article is a structural-semantic analysis of the idiom рукою власною (by one’s own hand) in Ivan Mazepa’s documents in the general context of the Ukrainian language phraseological fund development. The texts of the Hetman Chancellery during the Imperial-Soviet era had an unspoken status of non grata in linguistics, therefore there was a kind of taboo on involving them in the orbit of linguistic studies. To achieve the aim, it was necessary to complete the following tasks: to identify the declared idiom in Ivan Mazepa’s business discourse; to determine the semantics of the idiom; to reveal semantic and structural innovations of the idiom in time and space, caused by individual reception of the situation and the phraseological potential of linguistic units, which will make it possible to trace the Ukrainian language phraseological fund durability. To achieve the aim, the following methods were used: the descriptive method made it possible to analyze the specifics of the semantics of phraseological units; the method of contextual analysis was decisive for clarifying the peculiarities of phraseological units functioning in monuments of various styles and genres, which made it possible to determine shifts in the semantic structure of word combinations; with the help of the structural method, the connections between components of the idiom are traced; the comparative-historical method makes it possible to present the vertical development and dynamics of the set expression; the etymological method was used to confirm the specific or borrowed character of the phraseology. The set expression is a linguistic calque of the Latin manu propria and got into the Ukrainian language through Polish language. However, the functioning of the idiom своею рукою (by one’s own hand) «personally» in the Ukrainian language of the 15th century gives us a reason to talk about semantic, structural and stylistic syncretization in the Polish-Ukrainian era with the adapted in Polish variant ręką własną. The idiom demonstrates the complete dominance of the variant with the attribute власний (own) and a fairly stable trend to use exactly the indirect word order which corresponds to the «noun + adjective» model. However, the laws of Ukrainian syntagmatics led to the entry and functioning of set expressions in the new Ukrainian language with a direct order of components, attesting data from the Ukrainian language corpora. The inflection of the instrumental case, which is sporadically recorded in a reduced form, also demonstrates its historical persistence. Conclusion. The conducted research proved that the use of the idiom рукою власною (by one’s own hand) in Ivan Mazepa’s business documentation was a complete reflection of its use and changes in the contemporary Ukrainian language. Its use primarily in the texts of business communication, and later also in the texts of other styles and genres, proves the development and persistence of the lack of general semantics «personally» expressiveness over the centuries. Semantic identity made it possible to vary the attributive component, and the identity of business situations led to the complete ellipticity of this word combination in the direction of one word, which is characteristic, however, only of business sphere texts, which in the 18th century testify to the transfer of the practice of abbreviations developed in Western European offices for business set expressions.

Mapping the ecological resilience of Atlantic postglacial heathlands.

Anthropogenic heathlands are semi-natural ecosystems with a unique cultural and biodiversity value, considered worthy of preservation across most of the world. Their rate of loss, however, is alarming. Currently, we know little about the heathlands' actual span of resilience affordances and their association with abiotic and anthropogenic factors, including how much additional intervention they need to persist. Consequently, we are missing out on vital knowledge for conservation, management and the historical persistence of heathlands.This paper develops a method to assess the ecological resilience affordances of Atlantic postglacial heaths in the absence of human management. We use 12 existing cases of heathland succession to establish a four-step resilience grade for each site, which we regress onto a series of explaining factors and use it in predicting heath resilience across postglacial Atlantic Northern Europe.We find that temperature, humidity, elevation and sandiness have a positive correlation with high heathland resilience. Our predictive mapping shows an uneven distribution of ecological heath resilience across Atlantic Northern Europe within an area of 1,000 × 1,200 km of 5 × 5 km resolution.Historic heathland distributions far exceed areas that afford high heath resilience, suggesting that heath distribution and persistence depend on both abiotic and anthropogenic factors. Policy implications: The map predicting the ecological resilience of Atlantic postglacial heaths can be used by managers working towards heath preservation and restoration to prioritize conservation efforts and to plan management practices across Atlantic Northern Europe. Together with the predictive model, it provides an important initial screening tool to assess heathland resilience in the absence of management as well as the impact of atmospheric nitrogen. The results are equally relevant for scholars who are interested in humans' role in increasing and decreasing ecosystem resilience. Our predictive method can be applied in other regions across the world by adding regionally specific variables.

Dialectical Abnormality? Jewish Alienation and Jewish Emancipation between Hegel and Marx

Abstract Karl Marx’s “On the Jewish Question” (1844) has fueled discussions around his early intellectual development as a Young-Hegelian thinker as well as debates about an allegedly distinct form of anti-Semitism native to Left-Hegelian and later to left-thinkers in general, Jewish and non-Jewish alike. In this essay, I argue that Marx’s assessment of contemporary Judaism is motivated by an underappreciated criticism of Hegelian historiography. Surveying the genealogy of the Hegelian treatments of Judaism between Hegel and Marx, I distinguish Marx’s intervention as a reaction to non-materialistic teleological historiography. This historiography assumes dialectical movement and demands practical change from those considered foreign to the movement. In contrast, this article suggests that Marx’s primary target is the belief that Judaism has been sublated into Christianity, that the abnormality lies not in Judaism’s historical persistence, but in the Christian pretense that the material contradictions Judaism was a response to have been overcome. Against the teleological nature of all renditions of Hegelian historiography, including Marx’s later historical-materialism, his “On the Jewish Question” weaponizes a hitherto unrecognized anti-teleological argument against the assimilationist views it responds to, of the kind that should evoke Nietzschean genealogy.

Coping With Dynamism: Phylogenetics and Phylogeographic Analyses Reveal Cryptic Diversity in Heleobia Snails of Atacama Saltpan, Chile

The species that inhabit systems highly affected by anthropic activities usually exhibit this external influence in their gene pool. In this study, we investigated the genetic patterns of populations of Heleobia atacamensis, a freshwater microgastropod endemic to the Atacama Saltpan, a system historically exposed to environmental changes, and currently subjected to conditions associated with metallic and non-metallic mining and other anthropic activities. Molecular analyses based on nuclear and mitochondrial sequences indicate that the saltpan populations are highly fragmented and that the genetic structure is mainly explained by historical geographic isolation, with little influence of contemporary factors. The microsatellite results suggest a moderate genetic diversity and sharp differentiation mediated by isolation by distance. Additionally, despite the high environmental heterogeneity detected and the marked historical dynamism of the region, our data reveal no signs of demographic instability. The patterns of contemporary gene flow suggest a change in the current genetic structure, based on the geographic proximity and specific environmental conditions for each population. Our results, highlight the role of fragmentation as a modulator of genetic diversity, but also suggest that the historical persistence of isolated populations in naturally dynamic environments could explain the apparent demographic stability detected.

Historical persistence and isolation by distance of

Context Empirical studies of intraspecific genetic diversity and population structure can inform the evolutionary and demographic history of individual species and of landscapes at the bioregional level. Aims We aimed to assess intraspecific genetic variation at macroevolutionary and microevolutionary temporal scales for Mirbelia viminalis, a key species present on the Hamersley Range in the ancient and highly diverse landscape of the Pilbara bioregion of northwest Western Australia. Methods We sampled extant populations and assessed diversity and structure using sequences (chloroplast DNA, 1759 base pairs) and microsatellite markers (nuclear DNA, 15 loci) data. Key results Significant phylogeographic structure and a lack of historical demographic signals of population contraction or expansion suggest historical population persistence. Moderate chloroplast haplotype diversity (h = 15) and moderate divergence among extant haplotypes indicates a degree of historical connectivity via seed dispersal across central populations on the Hamersley Range. Levels of nuclear genetic diversity were low to moderate (allelic richness = 3.554, expected heterozygosity = 0.489, observed heterozygosity = 0.462) and depauperate compared to another member of the Mirbelia genus present further south in the Midwest region. Nuclear diversity revealed a strong signal of isolation by distance with localised admixture among populations and some contemporary genetic clustering along a north-west to south-east transect of the Hamersley Range. Conclusions Low nuclear genetic diversity may be related to recent reductions in population size for M. viminalis. Historical population persistence with few barriers to dispersal other than geographic distance may be common for members of the Fabaceae across the Hamersley Range.

"Vojvođanska nacija" - ideološke pobude i antiistorijski narativ

The paper represents the historiographic facing with the narrative about the need to construct the "Vojvodina nation". This narrative, aware of the need for validity and historical persistence, searches for a foundation in its specific interpretation of historiography. The starting point can be found in the acceptance of the historical context of the emancipation of the Serbian national idea in the Habsburg Monarchy. Such discourse is also applied to the Yugoslav state organization, regardless of its divergent character in relation to the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy and the circumstances of the liberation and defence war, in which quite a harmonized national interest of Serbs was realized about unity in the joint state. The ideological prejudice about the meta-ethnic character of Yugoslav unity prevailing after the victory of the socialist revolution, led to the federalist concept of the state organization created on the ruins of the alleged "Great Serbian" national idea. Despite intentions, the circumstance of the socialist building of the Yugoslav society did not prevent the development of nationalist ideas of party bureaucrats. It was a prerequisite for the development of Vojvodina statism and national-building.

Attractions of delay: Using deliberative engagement to investigate the political and strategic impacts of greenhouse gas removal technologies

Concerns have been raised that a focus on greenhouse gas removals (GGR) in climate models, scientific literature and other media might deter measures to mitigate climate change through reduction of emissions at source – the phenomenon of ‘mitigation deterrence’. Given the urgent need for climate action, any delay in emissions reduction would be worrying. We convened nine deliberative workshops to expose stakeholders to futures scenarios involving mitigation deterrence. The workshops examined ways in which deterrence might arise, and how it could be minimized. The deliberation exposed social and cultural interactions that might otherwise remain hidden. The paper describes narratives and ideas discussed in the workshops regarding political and economic mechanisms through which mitigation deterrence might occur, the plausibility of such pathways, and measures recommended to reduce the risk of such occurrence. Mitigation deterrence is interpreted as an important example of the ‘attraction of delay’ in a setting in which there are many incentives for procrastination. While our stakeholders accepted the historic persistence of delay in mitigation, some struggled to accept that similar processes, involving GGRs, may be happening now. The paper therefore also reviews the claims made by participants about mitigation deterrence, identifying discursive strategies that advocates of carbon removal might deploy to deflect concerns about mitigation deterrence. We conclude that the problem of mitigation deterrence is significant, needs to be recognized in climate policy, and its mechanisms better understood. Based on stakeholder proposals we suggest ways of governing GGR which would maximize both GGR and carbon reduction through other means.

Historical Persistence

This article reviews the literature on historical persistence in political science and the related social sciences. Historical persistence refers to causal effects that ( a) operate over time scales of a decade or more and ( b) explain spatial variation in political, economic, or social outcomes. Although political scientists have always drawn from history, the historical persistence literature represents a new approach to historical research in the social sciences that places a premium on credible research designs for causal inference. We discuss regional and national coverage, state-of-the-art research designs, analytical and inferential challenges, and mechanisms and theories of persistence, drawing broadly from the contemporary literature in political science and economics.

The Cultural Evolution of Epistemic Practices : The Case of Divination.

Although a substantial literature in anthropology and comparative religion explores divination across diverse societies and back into history, little research has integrated the older ethnographic and historical work with recent insights on human learning, cultural transmission, and cognitive science. Here we present evidence showing that divination practices are often best viewed as an epistemic technology, and we formally model the scenarios under which individuals may overestimate the efficacy of divination that contribute to its cultural omnipresence and historical persistence. We found that strong prior belief, underreporting of negative evidence, and misinferring belief from behavior can all contribute to biased and inaccurate beliefs about the effectiveness of epistemic technologies. We finally suggest how scientific epistemology, as it emerged in Western societies over the past few centuries, has influenced the importance and cultural centrality of divination practices.

The Persistence of Social Norms, Family Formation, and Gender Balance in Politics

AbstractThroughout history, most positions of political power have been held by men, and despite numerous laws and regulations aimed at increasing gender equality in society and politics, the majority of democratic assemblies remain predominantly composed of men. What makes this gender composition persistent over time? Using data from Swedish population registers from 1982 to 2014 and demographic statistics from 1749 to 1859, I study how historical social norms shape the present-day gender balance in local politics. The results show that where family formation was more traditional in the past, there are fewer women in local politics today. The analysis also shows that family formation is a likely mechanism for the transmission of social norms across generations. The findings contribute to our understanding of the historical persistence of social structures and the reasons why gender balance in politics is not easily achieved.

Ideology and succession politics in Ethiopia: autocratic leadership turnover and political instability

ABSTRACT Recent scholarship on the institutionalization of politics in Africa has highlighted the consolidation of constitutional leadership turnover in electoral democracies. However, leadership turnover is not limited to democracies, and is increasingly also regularized in a subset of non-democratic regimes ruled by dominant parties. Why have some dominant ruling parties in Africa been able to facilitate leadership turnover while others have not? With evidence from a detailed case study of Ethiopia’s leadership transitions, we argue that the historical persistence of ideology and its institutional expressions are important drivers of dominant parties’ ability to manage leadership turnover. In Ethiopia, the ideology of ethno-national self-determination (forged in the 1960s) influenced political development for decades, culminating in the adoption of constitutional ethnic federalism and the creation of a ruling party alliance comprised of ethno-national parties. This institutional backdrop defined the contours of transitions in 2012 and 2018. It also explains contestations over the nature of federalism in Ethiopia, including the outbreak of conflict in Tigray in 2020. In addition to highlighting the role of ideology in African politics, this paper brings a comparative perspective to the study of Ethiopia, a country that is often studied in isolation.

Dynamic landscapes in northwestern North America structured populations of wolverines (Gulo gulo)

Abstract Cyclic climatic and glacial fluctuations of the Late Quaternary produced a dynamic biogeographic history for high latitudes. To refine our understanding of this history in northwestern North America, we explored geographic structure in a wide-ranging carnivore, the wolverine (Gulo gulo). We examined genetic variation in populations across mainland Alaska, coastal Southeast Alaska, and mainland western Canada using nuclear microsatellite genotypes and sequence data from the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region and Cytochrome b (Cytb) gene. Data from maternally inherited mtDNA reflect stable populations in Northwest Alaska, suggesting the region harbored wolverine populations since at least the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 Kya), consistent with their persistence in the fossil record of Beringia. Populations in Southeast Alaska are characterized by minimal divergence, with no genetic signature of long-term refugial persistence (consistent with the lack of pre-Holocene fossil records there). The Kenai Peninsula population exhibits mixed signatures depending on marker type: mtDNA data indicate stability (i.e., historical persistence) and include a private haplotype, whereas biparentally inherited microsatellites exhibit relatively low variation and a lack of private alleles consistent with a more recent Holocene colonization of the peninsula. Our genetic work is largely consistent with the early 20th century taxonomic hypothesis that wolverines on the Kenai Peninsula belong to a distinct subspecies. Our finding of significant genetic differentiation of wolverines inhabiting the Kenai Peninsula, coupled with the peninsula’s burgeoning human population and the wolverine’s known sensitivity to anthropogenic impacts, provides valuable foundational data that can be used to inform conservation and management prescriptions for wolverines inhabiting these landscapes.