Historical Cycles Research Articles

The Strategy of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt Facing Historical Cycles of Oppression and Legitimation

This study analyzes the strategy of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) in Egypt facing cycles of repression and legitimation throughout its history. The analysis suggests that the strategic shift into a political activity has proved to be effective, but only for a short period of time. President Morsi must have assumed that the MB in Egypt was closer than ever to achieving its strategic political goals, since for the first time in its history it founded a legitimate political party and won the elections. Reviewing the strategy of the MB in Egypt may lead to describe it as pragmatic. However, the unique nature of the MB as a political movement with a religious affiliation - an Islamic political movement, may challenge the pragmatic nature of its strategy. Thus, the alleged pragmatic strategy of the movement may eventually serve a strategic radical goal rather than lead to moderation.

Operational vehicle state of health estimation framework based on local-global attention mechanism

The state of health (SOH) of electric vehicles directly correlates with operational safety and driving range. Accurate assessment of SOH is crucial for improving the safety and reliability of electric vehicles. This article proposes a novel SOH estimation framework based on the local-global attention mechanism (L-G-A) and real-world incomplete charging processes. Firstly, an analysis of the charging modes is conducted. Specifically, the average value of capacity is calculated for multiple constant current segments as the reference capacity, and the effect of ambient temperature on charging efficiency and battery capacity is considered. Subsequently, aging characteristics of interval capacities are extracted through incremental capacity analysis. To investigate the impact of different usage patterns on battery degradation during daily use by vehicle owners, the historical cycle charging segments are categorized based on segment similarity. Then, the L-G-A model is established by utilizing convolutional layers to extract local-scale temporal information and computing global attention scores based on degradation information between each segment and across classes. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed framework has the highest estimation accuracy with mean absolute error and root mean square error of 0.069 % and 0.084 %, respectively, which outperforms the traditional LSTM, CNN, and SVR models in terms of accuracy of SOH evaluation.

Amazon vs the Amazon: Green Capitalist Imaginaries and the Death of Biodiversity

ABSTRACT Capitalist forces shape public consciousness and, by extension, how everyday people imagine environmental matters of concern. This article investigates the historical cycling of the three most influential green imaginaries of Western neoliberalism: biodiversity, ecosystem services, and climate change. Using the Amazon rainforest and Amazon.com as icons of the clash between capitalism and nature, we investigate how shifting neoliberal fashions create opportunities for capital to evacuate place consciousness from U.S. environmental politics. The destruction of place consciousness enables corporations to damage the biosphere while minimizing political interruption. We show how place-erasure works through historical cases linked to each phase: the sustainable tropical forest sourcing of The Body Shop and Ben & Jerry’s (1990s), compensatory wetland mitigation in the Midwest (2000s), and Amazon.com’s carbon offset program (2010s–present). In our discussion of these imaginaries or “waves,” we contend that the current mainstream neoliberal climate paradigm is the most pernicious as it diverts the public's attention to the sky and away from accelerating ecological violence on the ground.

Numerical investigations into the comparison of hydrogen and gas mixtures storage within salt caverns

Salt caverns, long used for natural gas storage to manage peak loads, are being considered for hydrogen storage as part of the shift towards greener fuels. This transition necessitates re-evaluating heat and fluid transport to ensure the suitability of storage sites. A comparative analysis between current (natural gas and compressed air) and prospective (hydrogen and gas mixtures) storage systems was conducted using a standardized historical cycle over thirty days to identify trends. Hydrogen exhibited the lowest cumulative temperature and pressure increase (17 °C, 0.40 MPa), but the greatest variability per cycle, with an average range of 26 °C and 1.6 MPa. This higher fluctuation could potentially limit its use in short-term cycles compared to natural gas. Moreover, hydrogen's storage capacity was found to be a third of natural gas's, at only 6.6 GWh for the cavern design and specified pressure limits. These findings indicate that while hydrogen presents a greener alternative, its high variability and lower storage capacity pose challenges for its use in existing infrastructure, highlighting the need for further research to optimize its storage and utilisation in energy systems.

KUNQU MUSIC THEATRE IN YANGZHOU IN THE 18TH CENTURY

This study focuses on the development characteristics of the traditional Kunqu opera in the Yangzhou theatre in the 18th century, particularly in the context of the emergence of the owery genre (huabu). The author identi es parallels in the historical cycles of the development of the owery genres and contemporary Chinese opera and suggests several recommendations for incorporating traditional techniques into modern productions to popularise Kunqu music theatre. The aim of this study is to deeply explore the history, culture, and art of the Yangzhou theatre and its in uence on Chinese theatrical art, as well as its value and inspiration in contemporary theatrical art. Furthermore, the study provides practical recommendations for presenting and developing the Yangzhou theatre.

Locating Irishness in the “Belfast of this Great Dominion”: Toronto, 1841–1926

Abstract Through an exploration of how readings of Irish ethnic identity were produced, reproduced, and modified in Toronto between 1841 and 1926, this article contributes an urban-scale study to research on global Irishness. In the mid-nineteenth century, Toronto numbered among the most Irish of North American cities, and Catholics and Protestants of Irish birth and ancestry were touched by two nineteenth-century political projects that reached global levels of significance. The first concerned the attempted resurrection of the “Irish nation” through the return of a self-governing Dublin parliament by either constitutional or violent means. The second was the ongoing expansion of Britain's empire, a geo-political entity for which the Irish in Canada displayed varying degrees of affection through the century. For these projects, Toronto can be seen as both an Irish diasporic and British imperial location of importance. The study is informed by scholarship cautioning against the essentializing of any ethnic group as a transhistorical entity with consensual goals, and it considers the role of ethno-political entrepreneurs within the historical cycle of ethnic group-making.

Кризисы модернизации 1990-х годов в контексте исторических циклов России

The article compares the reckless socio-political dynamics in Russia in the 1990s, manifested in a series of crises and turning events, with the concept of mechanisms of the Russian historical cycles. The paper lists the main stages of dynamics — complexes of interrelated events that change the balance of power, structural conditions and the direction of subsequent processes. The author also lists the main actors and social groups involved in the political dynamics of that time period: supreme power, reformers, insiders, oligarchs, representatives of special services, “pro-soviet” and democratic opposition, urban educated class, workers and miners’ movements, “ordinary people”. The author concludes that the rapid sweeping changes in the politics of the 1990s took place, as they did before, in the parametric space with the axes of “state success” and “freedom”. Transitions occurred between the phases that were typical for much longer cycles of the Russian historical past — “crisis”, “liberalization”, “authoritarian rollback”, “state collapse”, “military-political triumph”. At the same time, the mechanism of the general democratic backsliding trend and the growth of authoritarian tendencies calls for clarification. The authors propose a phase model that explains this change through the patterns of response strategies of the supreme power to challenges and threats under different conditions. Weakness and failures of the state policy coupled with a shortage of resources led to mass disillusionment, delegitimization of the supreme power and reform policy, which manifested itself in elections and inspired the adherents of the restoration. The increase in the corresponding threats placed a premium on administrative and violent measures. Once sufficient resources were accumulated, those measures were becoming successful and received positive reinforcement. With each crisis, the supreme power took an upper hand, while the collegial separation of powers was reduced, and the reforms lost their original focus on economic freedom, the rise of small and medium-sized businesses, and the growth of democracy. As a result, the opportunities for the political modernization were missed, giving way to the authoritarian trends.

State of Health (SOH) Estimation of Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on ABC-BiGRU

As a core component of new energy vehicles, accurate estimation of the State of Health (SOH) of lithium-ion power batteries is essential. Correctly predicting battery SOH plays a crucial role in extending the lifespan of new energy vehicles, ensuring their safety, and promoting their sustainable development. Traditional physical or electrochemical models have low accuracy in measuring the SOH of lithium batteries and are not suitable for the complex driving conditions of real-world vehicles. This study utilized the black-box characteristics of deep learning models to explore the intrinsic correlations in the historical cycling data of lithium batteries, thereby eliminating the need to consider the internal chemical reactions of lithium batteries. Through Pearson correlation analysis, this study selects health indicators (HIs) from lithium battery cycling data that significantly impact SOH as input features. In the field of lithium batteries, this paper applies ABC-BiGRU for the first time to SOH prediction. Compared with other recursive neural network models, ABC-BiGRU demonstrates superior predictive performance, with maximum root mean square error and mean absolute error of only 0.016799317 and 0.012626847, respectively.

The Bubble Metropolis: Manhattan Island Crises in Contemporary Science Fiction

As “the island at the center of the world,” Manhattan has inspired countless writers and has served as a spatial archetype in science fiction’s world-building. From the interdisciplinary perspective of literature and economics, this article discusses the crisis imagination of the “bubble metropolis” in five contemporary Manhattan-related science fiction novels including Cities in Flight (1970), The Blister (1975), Terminal World (2010), Zone One (2011), and New York 2140 (2017). The spatial variety of Manhattan Island in these science fiction novels is closely combined with its economic condition. The characters, plots, and spatial imagery of these novels gather to reflect the different stages of the operation of a bubble economy, illustrating a historical cycle of capitalism that can never be escaped. Manhattan Island has long been the symbol of the world’s rush for wealth. The fear of economic recession, environmental degradation, and class conflict have formed the special geographical features of the island in the future. The crisis imagination of the “bubble metropolis” also seeks to stimulate critical thinking on economic ethics, urban design, and high technology, calling for social justice and public welfare.

Image and social portrait of a police officer

The problem of improving the image of police officers is an urgent and significant task for the Russian state. In the article, the author reveals the concepts of "image" and "social portrait" of a police officer. It is determined that an image is a subjective perception of an object, and a social portrait is its objective characteristic. Despite these differences, common features of these categories are also proposed. Firstly, the image and social portrait are collective in nature, they are characterized by a mass consciousness, not an individual one. Secondly, image and social portrait have a communicative nature. Thirdly, the image and social portrait depend on the cultural and historical cycle. The methodological basis of the research is general scientific methods: analysis, generalization, comparison. In this understanding, the correlation between the concepts of "image" and "social portrait" of a police officer is interesting. The author draws attention to the fact that creating a positive image of a police officer is impossible without studying public opinion, which is a tool that can identify the main ways to optimize the image of police officers. In the article, the author draws attention to such a concept as "self-image". It is important for a police officer to realize the need to engage in self-development, to learn his strengths and weaknesses. It is determined that for a complete and specific picture concerning the image of a police officer, the unity of three key terms is necessary: "image", "social portrait" and "self-image". This approach may have practical significance in studying the image of a police officer, helping to answer questions: social perceptions of the employee, whether the employee meets the requirements, whether the employee himself strives for the ideal.

ФУНКЦИОНАЛЬНАЯ ОПРЕДЕЛЁННОСТЬ ПЯТИ 40-ЛЕТНИХ ПЕРИОДОВ В СОСТАВЕ 72-ЛЕТНЕГО ЦИКЛА ИСТОРИЧЕСКОГО РАЗВИТИЯ: ФРАКТАЛЬНО-КЛАСТЕРНЫЙ ПОДХОД

Prediction of scientific, technical and social development requires understanding the structure of the processes being analyzed. The object of the study is 72-year historical cycles. Within the framework of the ontological approach, the 72- year cycle is represented as a set of five processes, each of which lasts 40 years, with the beginning and completion of each subsequent process occurring in each case after 8 years. The subject of the study is the functional certainty of the five distinguished 40-year processes. The hypothesis is formed on the basis of the functional certainty of the elements of the fractal-cluster model: information, technological, environmental, transport, energy. Based on these clusters, ideological, technological, and ethical 40-year processes, a 40-year process of space expansion, and a 40-year energy process are distinguished, respectively. The author analyzes the initial and final eight years of the corresponding 40-year processes. Based on the results of the study, it is concluded that in each case there is a direct connection between the events that mark the beginning and end of the corresponding 40-year process. The analysis is carried out on materials of the Soviet period of national history.

Компаративный анализ интернационализации университетов регионов мира в условиях смены глобального мирового лидера

Qualified personnel plays an important role in the competition between countries for economic leadership that enables the transition to a multipolar world. In this context, the higher education sphere is changing; universities worldwide are increasingly striving to attract the best students to their country. The study aims to identify factors causing changes in the position of universities in world regions and develop recommendations for Russian universities to strengthen their positions in the global education market. The methodology relies on the concept of different historical cycles leading to changes in world leaders. The article offers a contemporary interpretation of higher education internationalisation as a multidimensional process instead of fragmentation. The first section explores the issue of changing the world leader; the second identifies transformations in higher education internationalisation in key world regions; the third assesses university internationalisation as a basis for new rankings and self-assessment. A hypothesis about the correlation between the trend of changing global leaders and the place of national universities in international rankings is confirmed. To assess the trend dynamics, the article proposes authors’ multidimensional indices of higher education and university internationalisation for world countries. It is revealed that China, aspiring to be a world leader, has expanded its share in the education market and increased import volumes by more than 1.5 times, sending its students to high-ranking universities, while the USA has weakened its position. Russian universities occupy middle positions in rankings despite the growth of the country’s share in the global education market. Recommendations offered to Russian universities and the option of their self-assessment can be used by strategic development professionals.

Crime in the Context of Philosophy of History

Methodological foundations for improvement of criminological science involve the expansion of its interdisciplinary connections, including its connections with philosophy and history. This makes it possible to study crime as a certain social process taking place in the general logic of the development of society and subordinate to it. The classical philosophy of history offers several options for understanding the meaning and driving forces of the historical process that predetermine competing views on the history of crime. Theology and Marxism, fundamentally differing in their view of the mechanism of history, provide an understanding of crime as a linearly developing process that has its origins in the past, but inevitably disappears in the future as the «end of history» is reached. Cyclical concepts of the historical process allow us to look at crime as an eternal, indestructible phenomenon that changes its basic forms as historical cycles change and in accordance with the basic parameters of this cycle itself. The concepts of multifactorial historical development determine an emphatically sociological explanation of crime, within which its state can be assessed outside the context of the past and future. The postmodern challenge to universal classical historiosophical concepts has actually destroyed their explanatory significance and methodological value. At the same time, postmodernism creates favorable opportunities for understanding the process of crime as an integral part of many parallel and overlapping histories: the history of liberalism, the history of economics, the history of preserving national identity, etc. In this case, crime stories (plural) appear in place of crime history (singular). And only such a multi-layered view of the processes of crime development and its connection with social processes can provide adequate methodological support for criminological research. In this regard, the results of the study can be considered as a contribution to the development of historical criminology, which is gaining relevance.

Long-Term Economic and Geopolitical Cycles: A Compass to Multilateral Cooperation in Our Age

Abstract The birth of modern economics was strongly related to the study of cycles. Economists tried to establish historical cycles, then business cycles and to model even very short-term fluctuations. In the 2000s, the “great moderation” brought about a temporary decline in the interest for longer-term cyclical issues. This was also related to the unipolar moment of US power after the fall of the Soviet Union. The 2008 great financial crisis and the rise of China, however, proved that cycles had not ceased to affect us. The contrary is true: just now, we are witnessing (at least) a rerun of the 1970s with all the implications of energy shocks and geopolitical tensions. Several authors again try to understand cycles; nevertheless, there is a scarcity of studies merging cultural, economic and geopolitical knowledge in this regard. The paper aims to fill this gap by discussing possible interpretations of the current great power dynamics. A complex analysis shows that downward spirals of hegemonic cycles can be escaped. Eurasia as a deep-rooted concept can further catalyse global development and the much-needed cooperative policies towards long-term sustainable growth. The East and the West should be focused on benchmarking the best solutions in the fields of technology, money and the green transition so that a fusion of megatrends benefits each community.

Human Participation in the Historical Cycle: Rereading of Yeats’s Annunciation Poems

Human Participation in the Historical Cycle: Rereading of Yeats’s Annunciation Poems

Циклическое развитие проектно-технологической культуры: проблемы методологии

The article analyzes approaches to understanding the essence of technological culture and the patterns of its development from the methodological positions of the design culture and the theory of selforganization. The phenomenon of technological culture is studied in the unity of the conceptual, praxeological and organizational aspects. The process of formation and development of technological culture is cyclical. Cyclicity is appearing in the periodic reiteration of the stages of cultural reproduction and cultural variability. The study gives a description of the three-phase structure of the cultural cycle, taking into account the role of self-organization processes at each formative stage. At the first formative stage the specificity of the self-organization mechanism is reduced to the formation of rigid links (structures) that measure and fasten images, signs and objects that are useful for the cultural formation. At the second stage a fundamental livelihood of the developing object as a whole is created. Usually this is a fundamental principle that sets coherence, synchronization of processes in a sociocultural system. At the third stage the processes of self-organization provide a livelihood for the components of the object which leads to the achievement of morphological and axiological integrity and uniqueness of the object, the system enters into symbiotic relationships with objects of another type, completes development and prepares the transition to a new three-part cycle of shaping. The article deals with the first historical cycle of formation and development of technological culture: "Hellenism – Ancient Rome – Byzantium". Each phase of the cultural cycle is characterized by the originality of subject, target and organizational factors. In future the undertaken research will reveal the features of technological culture on its modern "digital" stage basing on the logic of cyclic patterns developed within the framework of the proposed methodology.

Slow changes in lava chemistry at Kama‘ehuakanaloa linked to sluggish mantle upwelling on the margin of the Hawaiian plume

Abstract Temporal variations in lava chemistry at active submarine volcanoes are difficult to decipher due to the challenges of dating their eruptions. Here, we use high-precision measurements of 226Ra-230Th disequilibria in basalts from Kama‘ehuakanaloa (formerly Lō‘ihi) to estimate model ages for recent eruptions of this submarine Hawaiian pre-shield volcano. The ages range from ca. 0 to 2300 yr (excluding two much older samples) with at least five eruptions in the past ∼150 yr. Two snapshots of the magmatic evolution of Kama‘ehuakanaloa (or “Kama‘ehu”) are revealed. First, a long-term transition from alkalic to tholeiitic volcanism was nearly complete by ca. 2 ka. Second, a systematic short-term fluctuation in ratios of incompatible elements (e.g., Th/Yb) for summit lavas occurred on a time scale of ∼1200 yr. This is much longer than the ∼200-yr-long historical cycle in lava chemistry at the neighboring subaerial volcano, Kīlauea. The slower pace of the variation in lava chemistry at Kama‘ehu is most likely controlled by sluggish mantle upwelling on the margin of the Hawaiian plume.

Theoretical Perspectives on Bureaucrats: A Quest for Democratic Agents

While the relationship between bureaucracy and democracy has gained attention in historical cycles, the literature on the roles of bureaucrats in relation to democracy has become increasingly fragmented. Drawing on comparisons among public administration theory and participatory, deliberative, and collaborative democracy, this article provides typologies that reflect the historical multiplication of the theoretically determined roles and characteristics of bureaucracy that contribute to democracy. This comparative analysis highlights a common democratic trend among the four schools in adding stresses on bureaucrats’ autonomy, morality, publicity, and direct connection to citizens, with a constant coexistence of rational and managerial elements.

"Escaping the Historical Cycle" and the Construction of a New Ideology at the 20th CPC Congress

"Escaping the Historical Cycle" and the Construction of a New Ideology at the 20th CPC Congress

"Escaping the Historical Cycle" and the Construction of a New Ideology at the 20th CPC Congress

"Escaping the Historical Cycle" and the Construction of a New Ideology at the 20th CPC Congress