Historical Analogies Research Articles

A rapid response process for evaluating causes of extreme temperature events in the United States: The 2023 Texas/Louisiana heat wave as a prototype

Abstract As climate attribution studies have become more common, routine processes are now being established for attribution analysis following extreme events. This study describes the prototype process being developed through a collaboration across National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), including monitoring tools as well as observational and model-based analysis of causal factors. The prolonged period of extreme heat in summer 2023 over Texas, Louisiana and adjacent areas provided a proving ground for this emerging capability. This event posed unique challenges to the initial process. The extreme heat lasted for most of the summer while most heat wave metrics have been designed for 3–7 d events. The eastern portion of the affected area also occurred within the so-called summer-time daytime warming hole where the warming trend in maximum temperatures has been mitigated wholly or in part by increased precipitation. The extreme temperature coincided with a strong—but not record—precipitation deficit over the region. Both observations and climate model simulations illustrate that the temperatures for a given precipitation deficit have warmed in recent decades. In other words, meteorological droughts today are hotter than their historical analogs providing a stronger attribution to anthropogenic forcing than for temperature alone. These findings were summarized in a prototype plain language report that was distributed to key stakeholders. Based on their feedback, the monitoring and assessment tools will continue to be refined, and the project is exploring other climate model large ensembles to increase the robustness of attribution for future events.

The RARCrec: A rapid riparian vegetation assessment method for use in river systems undergoing vegetative and geomorphic recovery

SummaryMonitoring the condition of returning vegetation over time is essential for effectively managing riparian vegetation. Rapid riparian assessment methods are standard tools for capturing a suite of variables relevant to river health and are accessible to a range of users with different levels of experience. Monitoring efforts are particularly important for rivers undergoing degrading impacts and subsequent management interventions. In coastal catchments of New South Wales, Australia, vegetation is returning to rivers that were historically cleared for agriculture and are now experiencing geomorphic recovery. We present a rapid riparian assessment method for rivers undergoing vegetative and geomorphic recovery in this region. It addresses a gap in available rapid assessments by providing a methodology that can be used at sites with no historical analogue. Our assessment method adapts and extends a widely used method called the Rapid Assessment of Riparian Condition (RARC) to capture the quality of returning riparian vegetation along recovering rivers (rec), including native species diversity and vegetation structure (hence the name RARCrec). The RARCrec incorporates four sub‐indices – vegetation cover, native species richness, proportion of native to exotic species, and features of vegetation health – to produce an overall vegetation condition score that classifies sites as poor, moderate, or good condition. Scores for each sub‐index are assessed for the vegetation strata (groundcover, graminoids, midstorey, vines, and canopy) on the landform units of river bars, benches, and floodplains. The RARCrec has been designed to be sufficiently general for use in the main Vegetation Formations in coastal New South Wales and has been trialled at 36 sites across this region. Assessments can be conducted within half a day by two technically competent users and can be used to monitor vegetation condition over time to inform where to prioritise implementation of management activities. Field methodology and data sheets, including a scoring system, are provided to support the implementation of the RARCrec.

Historical analogies, traumatic past and responses to the war in Ukraine

Abstract This article examines the use of historical analogies by political leaders during foreign policy crises. Specifically, we focus on the German, Polish and Czech leaderships' reactions to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and investigate the historical analogies which leaders invoked to justify their responses to Russia's aggression. The existing scholarship recognizes the importance of historical analogies in foreign policy decision-making, but the literature focuses predominantly on several high-profile analogies (i.e. the Munich Agreement or the Vietnam War) and lacks comparative perspective. We employ a dual-method approach that combines qualitative coding with semantic network analysis, and conduct a comparative analysis of the full spectrum of analogies used by Polish, Czech and German policy-makers. We find that politicians did not focus on a single overarching analogy, but employed a wide array of historical references. We also find that even though the countries' policies largely aligned and that their leaders often invoked the same events, the meaning of analogies and the signals they sent differed substantially across cases. Analysing the full spectrum of analogies demonstrates that justifications for supporting Ukraine were shaped more by these states' own historical traumas than by their sympathy for Ukraine, support for international law, or desire to uphold the rules-based international order.

THE MUSICAL DRAMATURGY AND COMPOSITION STRUCTURES IN THE SYMPHONIES BY JEAN SIBELIUS

The article is dedicated to the peculiarities of conceptional and compositional solutions in the symphonies by Jean Sibelius. The author of the article proposes a new periodisation of the creative life of Sibelius as a great representative of the symphony genre, consisting of two triads of symphonies, surrounding the fourth one. The resources of renovation of the Viennese classical tradition by Sibelius are considered based on the rst triad (Nos. 1, 2 and 3) and the programmatic symphony “Kullervo”. Among the diverse historical connections of Sibelius’ symphonic searches, the author of the article highlights the receptions of the traditions of A. Bruckner and P. I. Tchaikovsky and the historical parallels of the symphonism of Sibelius, G. Mahler and P. Hindemith. The dialectic of contrasting-composite forms and metamorphoses of thematic material is de ned as the main integrating factor in the symphonies of Jean Sibelius.

Historical Analogies in Indian Public Administration

Historical Analogies in Indian Public Administration

Urban novel ecosystems as affective landscapes

Intertwined within a patchwork of different types of land use and land cover, novel ecosystems are urban ecosystems that have no historical analogues and contain novel species assemblages. Some researchers and practitioners in the field of conservation and restoration regard urban novel ecosystems unworthy of concern, while other groups call for their preservation due to the rate of biodiversity loss in cities and limited access to nature among some social groups. However, very little is known about how people perceive novel ecosystems (such as informal green spaces, post-industrial or derelict land sites awaiting redevelopment, brownfield sites, vacant lots, interstitial or gap spaces) which are often characterised by assemblages of wild, spontaneous, and overgrown vegetation, but also remanent or derelict urban infrastructure in cities. This paper addresses this gap by firstly asking how people percieve assemblages of wild-looking vegetation and urban infrastructure often found in novel ecosystems and how our affective and aesthetic responses to these ecosystems affects our attitudes towards wildness in cities. To begin to unpack this question, we obtain data from a series of exploratory workshops held in four cities in the global north where we asked people ‘what is urban nature?’ Our findings suggest that value judgements that people ascribe to novel ecosystems are often deeply polarised, but they are influenced by different ecological and urban conditions that people encounter within them. However, some negative perceptions about novel ecosystems may be mediated by situational cues; these situational cues could have important implications for rewilding and restoration programmes that aim to reconnect urban communities with nature through socio-ecological stewardship. To conclude, areas for further research that could improve our understanding of the social values of novel ecosystems in cities and the influence that these ecosystems may have on affective encounters with urban nature are proposed.

A Novel Approach to Automatically Digitize Analog Seismograms

Abstract Before the widespread adoption of the digital seismographs, seismic records were stored in analog form on paper and manually read by analysts. These analog seismograms contained various useful information and were crucial for seismic research. To meet the demands of the modern computational analysis, researchers must digitize historical analog seismograms and extract information. In this article, we present a novel approach to automatically digitize analog seismograms. Initially, Otsu threshold segmentation was applied to the analog seismograms to remove underlying noise and improve their clarity. Subsequently, a novel dynamic distributed seismic waveform onset-point-search algorithm was implemented, which automatically locates the onset point of each seismic waveform baseline in analog seismograms and accurately determines the total number of seismic waveform curves. To address the complexity and diversity of seismic waveforms, we implemented an innovative seismic waveform classification algorithm that can distinguish between complex waveforms and smooth waveforms, and further implemented a new smooth waveform removal method to eliminate interference from smooth waveforms during complex waveform extraction. Then, we used a YOLOv9s-based model to identify time markers within the seismic waveforms for removal. In addition, in the seismic waveform digitization extraction and reconstruction phase, we implemented a novel method for extracting significant seismic waveform features and geometric restoration for peak and trough feature extraction and geometric restoration, as well as vertical feature extraction of seismic waveforms. Finally, we implemented a new waveform sequence integration and time mapping model, which can effectively reconstruct seismic waveform data based on the extracted features and map arrival times to each waveform point. Experiments have verified the significant superiority and stability of the methods implemented in this article for digitizing analog seismograms.

“The Mother of All Collapses”

Abstract Utilizing the complex systems scholarship of Ugo Bardi as well as potentially informative, but always imprecise, historical analogy, this article examines the unraveling of the Roman Empire. In Bardi’s view, this “Mother of All Collapses” is a potentially powerful warning for our twenty-first-century globalized planet. Our work situates a key collapse “tipping point” for Ancient Rome’s Mare Nostrum (Our Sea)-centered civilization at “The Alexander Moment”—the assassination of Emperor Alexander Severus in 235 CE. Ancient and modern analogues and potential key differences, in terms of both exacerbating and dampening types of interacting feedback, are identified and analyzed.

THE CONTEMPORARY POLITICAL SECURITY ANALYTICS: «ORDINARY» APPROACHES TO THE FORMATION OF PUBLIC EXPERT CONTENT

The article is devoted to the basics of public perception of the political security of the state in the conditions of a full-scale invasion of modern Russia into Ukraine. The purpose of the study is to establish the specifics of the analysis of communication threats to modern political security in the public sphere. The significance of “ordinary” or “everyday” approaches to political-security analysis and production of political-security content is characterized. It was emphasized that the “retrospective approach” or “method of historical analogies” in the situational dimension involves comparing the security message or the security crisis situation as a whole with certain historical events of the past. The behavior of the subjects (actors) of the retrospective analysis, who risk drawing the wrong conclusion and incorrectly reflecting the real world, is analyzed. The principles of commenting on the political and security situation based on taking into account a relatively narrow range of facts and circumstances are revealed. The factors of preparation for various outcomes of the development of events and increased preparedness for unexpected situations have been clarified. The guidelines for fostering a culture of “experimentation” and continuous improvement, which is especially important in the context of expert protection of business processes from potential political threats, are revealed. Security analytics ecosystems and the integration of open data observations have been proven to improve the effectiveness of security analysis. Networked horizontal communication and data sharing “ecosystems” between related non-governmental expert-analytical structures have been found to focus on understanding and using social and organizational networks to identify potential threats and opportunities for cooperation. It is substantiated that in the production of secure analytical content it is important to apply the principles of flexible project management. It was established that the possibilities of increasing the effectiveness of retrospective analytics appear on the basis of the selection of historical analogies according to the parameters of the functional conditions. It was found that analysts try to assess security events from the side of a “distant observer” based on a “backward” approach. It was concluded that an important means of discrediting informational “throws” of the enemy is an asymmetric communication action (action) based on the formation of the agenda.

Surgical antisepsis in Russia: historical parallels

The origins of surgery and the improvement of surgical practices did not always guarantee a favorable surgical outcome. Even a masterfully performed operation could lead to a purulent-inflammatory process. Even at the stage of empirical development of medicine, before the great microbiological discoveries, an understanding was formed about a certain “substrate” that penetrates the surgical wound from the external environment and causes its suppuration. Supporters of the contagionist theory called it contagium, and supporters of the miasmatic theory considered the external (air) environment as such a source. The ideas of the supporters of the contagionist theory of the occurrence of purulent-septic complications in surgery in the middle of the 18th century are reflected in the works of D.S. Samoilovich and I.F. Semmelweis; the latter proved the transmission of the infectious principle by the surgeon’s hands, which became the starting point for the development of preventive antiseptics. In historical retrospect, the technology and means used for surgical hand antisepsis in Russia were analyzed from the mid-18th to the early 20th centuries. Moreover, literary sources for the period from 1783 to 2023 were analyzed, containing information about the antiseptic treatment of surgeons’ hands. Historical, descriptive, evaluative, analytical, and bacteriological research methods were used. As an experiment, the original antiseptic recipe described by D.S. Samoilovich (1783) was restored, and its effectiveness was confirmed. During surgical practices in Russia, starting from the mid-18th century, facts about the use of drugs with antiseptic activity for hand treatment are described. It is shown how, in historical retrospect, views on the final result of surgical antisepsis changed: from partial to complete destruction of microorganisms, preventing their entry from the deep layers of the skin, to the destruction of transient microflora and reduction of the abundance of resident microflora. Despite the influence of the English (J. Lister) and German (P. Fürbringer, J.F. Ahlfeld) surgical schools on the development of antiseptics in Russia, it retained its originality, determined by the needs of society and the possibility of using certain chemical antiseptics and their compositions for its implementation. The contribution of domestic surgeons to the improvement of antiseptic technologies and drugs in military field conditions is shown (N.I. Pirogov, A.M. Zabludovsky, D.I. Tatarinov et al.).

Deglobalization and China’s Visions for Reconfiguring Development Space

ABSTRACT Recent years have seen proliferating media references to ‘deglobalization’, frequently drawing historical analogies with periods of crisis and dislocation, such as the 1930s. At the same time, scholars have traced shifting geographies of development as a multi-centred unfolding of capitalist dynamics, entanglements and worldmaking projects, amidst failures and crises in/of development, sometimes discussed in terms of ‘abjection’. Negotiating these conjunctures and narratives, this paper re-considers and contextualises media debates about deglobalization, placing them in discussion with how Chinese narratives are re-visualising global development. In tracing the rise of ‘New Development Thinking’ (新发展理念) in China, we consider how global development as a project has increasingly come to occupy centre-stage in China’s sense of repositioning itself as a world power. Our conclusions reflect on the resultant consequences and challenges.

China’s economic boom and military advancement: realist perspective of the Dragon’s global power and presence in Africa

ABSTRACT Can and does realism explain the linkage between China’s economic advancement and its ever-increasing hard power and global influence? Realists assert that a growth in a nation’s economy triggers an upsurge in its craving for military or security advancement and power. Since the commencement of China’s ‘opening policy,’ its economy has witnessed tremendous hikes, being ranked second to the US economy. A vital coincidence of this is the ever-increasing attempt to modernising its military and general security systems. Of major concern is China’s recently established foreign military base in Djibouti in the ‘Horn of Africa.’ Realists have suggested that in such a Hobbesian world, Beijing will employ its economic power to assert its security interests. Analysing this linkage through a realist perspective, using case studies and historical analogies, the article concludes that realism best provides reasons for the phenomenon.

Critical Discourse Analysis of Benyamin Netanyahu ICC Open Hearing Session and Radar JawaPos Statement on Israel-Palestine Conflict

This study aimed to analyze the speech by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in response to the ICC arrest warrant against Israeli leaders.. This study took a qualitative method with critical discourse analysis based on Norman Fairclough's theory. The subject of the research was the speech by Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu taken from the YouTube channel Forbes Breaking News, posted on May 21, 2024, titled "Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu Responds to Arrest Warrant." This research aimed to provide a deep understanding of the discursive strategies used by Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu in his speech. The analysis revealed that Netanyahu's speech constructed a strong moral opposition and employed discursive strategies to legitimize Israel's actions and discredit the Israeli Criminal Court (ICC) and Hamas. Netanyahu’s speech used complex discursive strategies to influence public and international perception. Through the use of emotional language, historical analogies, and criticism of the ICC, Netanyahu effectively built a narrative supporting Israel’s position in the conflict with Hamas. This analysis demonstrated how political discourse could be used to shape power and legitimacy in the context of international politics.

Narrative as a Form of Applied History

Abstract Narrative is a fundamental form of historical thinking. As such, narrative is a representational framework through which real events can be ordered into simplified temporal sequences unfolding within historical settings, driven by the interaction of historical personages or collective entities such as nations or classes. These insights, however, are yet to be fully incorporated within the field of applied history, which could profit from a closer consideration of narrative as a concrete manifestation of what has been termed genealogical or processual history. Like the historical analogy, which has been the focus of much research, narrative has the potential to fruitfully make connections between past and present events, but also to misapply history for propagandistic purposes. To address these issues, this article presents a methodological model whose usefulness is demonstrated in two case studies, together with guidelines for how a narrative perspective could inspire future applied history research.

Mechanisms of regeneration: to what extent do they recapitulate development?

One of the enduring debates in regeneration biology is the degree to which regeneration mirrors development. Recent technical advances, such as single-cell transcriptomics and the broad applicability of CRISPR systems, coupled with new model organisms in research, have led to the exploration of this longstanding concept from a broader perspective. In this Review, I outline the historical parallels between development and regeneration before focusing on recent research that highlights how dissecting the divergence between these processes can uncover previously unreported biological mechanisms. Finally, I discuss how these advances position regeneration as a more dynamic and variable process with expanded possibilities for morphogenesis compared with development. Collectively, these insights into mechanisms that orchestrate morphogenesis may reshape our understanding of the evolution of regeneration, reveal hidden biology activated by injury, and offer non-developmental strategies for restoring lost or damaged organs and tissues.

Shifting spatial metaphors in Russia at a time of war

ABSTRACT Russia’s war with Ukraine is reshaping Russia’s geopolitical orientation and transforming the ways the country relates to its immediate neighbours. In this article, rather than undertaking a geopolitical analysis of the consequences inside Russia of the ongoing war in Ukraine, we look at public discourse as one aspect of political activity. We describe how processes of a holistic kind are depicted in metaphors and how new spatial metaphors are emerging. The war has pushed earlier somatic and emotion-laden state-generated images into coexistence with new tropes of centripetal convergence around the President and loyalty to the power vertical. We also bring to attention other kinds of images: the downbeat metaphors and historical analogies with which people describe Russia’s changing actuality, and the new spatial-territorial images produced by ethnic groups who are looking at Russia from alternative, non-central and sometimes conflictual perspectives. Unlike the national homogenisation that has developed from Xi Jinping’s image of ‘China’s dream’, Russia remains a consciously ‘imperial’, multiethnic and economically diverse country. We suggest that examining the influential metaphors by which it is imagined, both the holistic and the diverse, incongruous or splintered, is one way to capture the multiplicity of a country at war and in flux.

After Stunde Null: Reflections on Germany, Italy and Europe

The Franco-German relationship is considered a measure of the European Union’s overall health. Yet the bilateral ties between Germany and another founding member, Italy, are at least as important. Historical parallels between the two countries have been present since the founding of their modern nation-states. Economic differences have caused deep rifts that influence not just diplomatic relations, but also popular opinion. The rise of right-wing parties in both countries could be considered a new parallel, but upon closer inspection, there are important differences between the Alternative für Deutschland and Fratelli d’Italia. In the aftermath of the EU Parliament elections, it is worth taking a closer look at Germany, Italy, and what their relationship means for the EU.

KEPASTIAN HUKUM AKTA PERJANJIAN TERKAIT PINJAM NAMA (NOMINEE) OLEH WARGA NEGARA ASING (WNA) DALAM JUAL BELI TANAH MENURUT UNDANGUNDANG POKOK AGRARIA.

Nominee agreements in buying and selling freehold land are prohibited according to applicable law. The phenomenon that occurs in society is that nominee agreements are still used by foreign citizens in buying and selling land. The formulation of the problem in this research is the legal consequences of a deed of agreement to borrow a name in the sale and purchase of land by a foreign citizen and what is the legal certainty of the deed of agreement regarding the borrowing of a name (nominee) by a foreign citizen (WNA) in the sale and purchase of land according to the Basic Agrarian Law. The legal theory used in this research is the theory of legal certainty by Jan Michiel Otto, the theory of legal consequences according to Soeroso. The method used in this research is a type of normative juridical research, namely legal library research or secondary and tertiary sources of legal materials. The research approaches used are the statutory approach, conceptual approach, case approach and analytical approach, and legal material collection techniques are carried out by identifying ang inventorying positive legal rules, book literature, journals and order sources of legal material. The analysis out using legal interpretation, including Grammatical Interpretation and Historical Interpretation ang analogy legal construction methods. From the results results can be obtained that the the legal implication on the nominee agreement to the land agreement by WNA are null and void because it does not meet the requirements to the Article 1320 Number 4 of the KUH Perdata and conflicted with the principle of Nationalism as emphasized in Article 26 Paragraph (2) UUPA so that parties related to the land agreement based on a nominee agreement shall be subject to civil liability. The legal certainty about the nominee agreement by the WNA to the land agreement based on the UUPA is carried out in a preventive manner by establishing statutory regulations that prohibit nominee agreements in relation to land rights so as to protect foreign nationals from possible losses and fraud that could threaten the security of foreign investment in Indonesia

Long-term monitoring of desert restoration processes using historical stereoscopic imagery and laser scanning data: An example of the Błędów Desert (Poland)

This study aimed to present the spatiotemporal changes associated with the loss and subsequent regaining of the original character of the Błędów Desert (Poland) as a result of restoration efforts. The study area is one of the few places in Europe with a sandy desert character. The research period covered nearly 40 years, covering an area of approximately 1400 ha.The methodology is based on comparing the height structure parameters by analyzing point clouds created from contemporary and historical stereoscopic images. For this purpose, four sets of stereoscopic images were used, including two historical analog images from 1982 to 1996 and contemporary digital data from 2012 to 2018. Additional datasets such as airborne laser scanning data and cadastral databases were used as auxiliary data. The results showed an increase in the area covered by tall vegetation from 2% in 1982 to 18% and 41% in 1996 and 2012, respectively, which decreased to 30% after the completion of restoration activities in 2018. The restoration process has enabled the revival of the original desert character of the study area, although the total area covered by sand decreased compared to its state in the early 1980s. These results indicate the significant potential of the presented methodology in supporting ecosystem management systems, where changes in the height structure of vegetation play a crucial role. This applies to monitoring land abandonment, forest management, and large-scale reclamation work.

Metallacarboranes in Medicinal Chemistry: Current Advances and Future Perspectives.

Metallacarboranes, exemplified by cobalt bis(dicarbollide) ([COSAN]-), have excelled their historical metallocene analogue label to become promising in drug design, medical studies, and fundamental biological research. Serving as a unique platform for conjugation with biomolecules, they also constitute an auspicious building block for biologically active derivatives and a carrier for cellular transport of membrane-impermeable cargos. Modified [COSAN]- exhibits specific antimicrobial, antiviral, and anticancer actions showing promise for preclinical trials. Contributing to the ongoing development in medicinal chemistry, metallacarboranes offer desirable physicochemical properties and low acute toxicity. This article presents a critical look at metallacarboranes in the context of their application in medicinal chemistry, emphasizing [COSAN]- as a potential game-changer in drug design and biomedical sciences. As medicinal chemistry seeks innovative building blocks, metallacarboranes emerge as an important novelty with versatile solutions and promising implications.