Higher Risk Of Mortality Research Articles

Mortality prediction of COVID-19 patients using supervised machine learning

Hospitalized patients with COVID-19 are at higher risk of mortality. Machine learning (ML) algorithms have been proposed as a possible strategy for predicting mortality rates among patients hospitalized with COVID-19. This study analyzed various ML algorithms and identified the best model to predict COVID-19 mortality based on demographic, clinical, and laboratory data collected at registration. Data from 4,314 eligible patients (3,384 survivors and 930 who died) was collected from the register of three hospitals in Yogyakarta province, Indonesia, based on the confirmed predictors. Next, ML algorithms were utilized to predict mortality. Finally, the confusion matrix was used to evaluate how effective the models performed. The best five predictors from 26 features were myocardial infarction, SpO2, neutrophil, D dimer, and creatinine. The results indicate that the random forest algorithm showed better performance than other ML algorithms in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, precision, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC), achieving values of 84.15%, 84.0%, 84.1%, 83.9%, and 90.02%, respectively. Implementing ML techniques can accurately predict the mortality rate associated with COVID-19. Therefore, this predictive model can help clinicians and hospitals predict COVID patients with a greater risk of death and effectively target more appropriate treatments.

PSMA PET/CT for treatment response evaluation at predefined time points is superior to PSA response for predicting survival in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer patients

BackgroundIn metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), using serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels to evaluate treatment response is not always accurate. This study aimed to assess the efficacy of PSMA PET/CT at specific time points for evaluating treatment response and predicting survival in mCRPC patients, compared to PSA. MethodsSixty mCRPC patients underwent [18F]PSMA-1007 PET/CT at baseline and for treatment response evaluation of either androgen receptor-targeted agents (after 3 months) or chemotherapy (after completion), and were retrospectively analysed. Visual assessment categorised overall response and response of the worst responding lesion as partial response, stable disease, or progressive disease, using the EAU/EANM criteria. Additionally, percentage changes in SUVmax, total tumour volume and total lesion uptake (tumour volume * SUVmean) were calculated. PSA response was defined according to the PCWG3 criteria. Cox regression analysis identified predictors of overall survival. ResultsPSMA PET/CT and PSA response were discordant in 47 % of patients, and PSMA PET/CT response was worse in 89 % of these cases. Overall response on PSMA PET/CT independently predicted overall survival (progression versus non-progression: HR = 4.05, p < 0.001), outperforming PSA response (progression versus non-progression: HR = 2.53, p = 0.010) and other PSMA PET/CT parameters. Among patients with a PSA decline of > 50 %, 31 % showed progressive disease on PSMA PET/CT, correlating with higher mortality risk (progression versus non-progression: HR = 4.38, p = 0.008). No flare in PSMA uptake was observed in this cohort. ConclusionsPSMA PET/CT for assessing treatment response at predefined time points was superior to PSA-based response for predicting overall survival in mCRPC patients treated with androgen receptor-targeted agents and chemotherapy. PSMA PET/CT showed the ability to detect disease progression earlier than PSA levels, which can affect treatment decisions and has the potential to improve patient outcomes. We recommend further research to validate these findings in larger patient cohorts, to extend the number of treatments, and to evaluate cost-effectiveness and impact on patient outcomes.

Incremental hemodialysis transition in veterans and nonveterans with kidney failure

Purpose of review Initiation of hemodialysis treatment with a thrice-weekly prescription is currently the standard of care irrespective of patients’ residual kidney function (RKF), comorbidities, and preferences. Recent findings Each year ∼12 000 Veterans with advanced kidney disease progress to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) requiring dialysis and comprise greater than 10% of the US incident ESKD population. Dialysis is costly and is associated with impaired health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and high mortality risk, especially in the first year of treatment. Evidence suggests an incremental dialysis transition using twice-weekly hemodialysis provides various benefits, including more dialysis-free time, longer RKF preservation, less vascular access damage, and lower patient burden. Pragmatic studies are needed to inform the efficacy and safety of incremental hemodialysis as a personalized dialysis regimen, and could inform its consideration as a conservation strategy during times of supply shortages. Broadly implementing twice-weekly hemodialysis could also potentially allow more Veterans to receive care within VA-based dialysis units. The VA IncHVets Trial is a pragmatic, multicenter, randomized controlled trial comparing the efficacy and safety of twice-weekly incremental vs. thrice-weekly hemodialysis among Veterans transitioning to ESKD. Summary Further research is needed to determine whether incremental hemodialysis is well tolerated, effective, and facilitates a more favorable transition to dialysis.

Three-year changes in high-sensitivity cardiac troponin-T and total mortality in older adults

Abstract Elevated high-sensitivity cardiac troponin-T (hs-cTnT) is associated with mortality in older adults. However, little is known about the implications of changes over time. We investigated hs-cTnT 3-year change and its association with subsequent mortality in the Activity and Function in the Elderly Study. Participants with baseline and follow-up hs-cTnT &lt; 5 ng/L built the reference group (G1 = 156). Five groups were defined among those with an increment over time: Undetectable at baseline: follow-up &lt; 14 ng/L (G2 = 295), follow-up ≥ 14 ng/L (G3 = 24). Baseline 5 to &lt;14 ng/L: follow-up &lt; 14 ng/L (G4 = 101), follow-up ≥ 14 ng/L (G5 = 96). G6 included baseline and follow-up &gt; 14 ng/L (n = 74). Cox-proportional hazards models evaluated the association with mortality adjusting for age, sex, education, cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, number of medications, hs-CRP, and NT-proBNP. Among 745 participants (median age 75.9 years, 58.9% male) we observed 98 deaths (median follow-up 4.8 years). G1 had the lowest mortality rate (MR) (5.2 per 1000 person-years). The highest MR were observed by follow-up ≥ 14 ng/L: G3: 95.4 and G6: 100.4 per 1000 person-years, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 5.22 [95% CI 1.46, 18.65] and 3.40 [95% CI 1.02, 11.34], respectively. Hs-cTnT trajectories could help to identify older adults with a high mortality risk even after further adjustment including hs-CRP and NT-proBNP.

Association between perceived olfactory dysfunction and all-cause mortality in Chinese adults: A prospective community-based study.

Olfactory dysfunction has been suggested to be associated with all-cause mortality. Yet, there is a lack of large-scale cohorts to study this relationship. Using data from the Kailuan cohort, we assessed 97 327 Chinese adults for perceived olfactory dysfunction at baseline and gathered mortality data from government records. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to analyse the risk of all-cause mortality associated with perceived olfactory dysfunction, yielding hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) with adjustment for multiple potential confounders. Over a median follow-up of 6.4-year, we recorded a total of 3903 deaths. Individuals reporting perceived olfactory dysfunction had a higher risk of mortality (adjusted HR = 1.42; 95% CI = 1.02-2.00) compared to those without the dysfunction. In sensitivity analyses, we found similar results after excluding participants with pre-existing obesity, cardiovascular diseases, those younger than 50 years old, individuals diagnosed with cancer or stroke during follow-up, and those who died within two years of follow-up. Perceived olfactory dysfunction was associated with a high risk of all-cause mortality among Chinese adults. Our study is limited by failure to include a national-representative sample and misclassification of exposure assessment due to use of a subjective question to assess olfactory dysfunction. Further studies with objective are warranted to replicate our findings and understand the underlying mechanisms.

Mortality in patients older than 65years undergoing surgery for degenerative lumbar spine disease: a comparison with the general population.

The increased life expectancy and prevalence of spondylarthrosis have led to a growing frequency of spinal surgery in older people. This study aims to assess whether there is an excess mortality concerning that expected in the general population associated with surgical procedures performed in patients over 65years old for a degenerative disease of the lumbar spine. All patients aged 65years or older undergoing surgery at a single center between 2009 and 2019 for lumbar spine degenerative disease were included. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were estimated to compare the mortality risk with the expected in the Spanish population for the same age, gender, and calendar-period. Multivariable Cox analysis was employed to determine risk factors of mortality. A total of 411 procedures were analyzed. The mean age was 72.6years old. SMR was 0.67 (CI 95% 0.54-0.84). That benefit was significant in women after gender stratification. Patients operated on between 65-84years old had a lower mortality rate than that expected for the general population. For patients aged 85 or older, the observed mortality was not different from that expected in the general population. Multivariable Cox analysis observed an association between higher mortality and the variables age, male, and Charlson comorbidity index score. Compared with the general population, patients over 65years old who underwent spinal surgery for degenerative disease of the lumbar spine experienced a reduction in mortality. This effect was particularly significant in women and patients aged 65-84years. Age, male gender, and Charlson comorbidity index score were associated with higher mortality risk.

Relationship of serum calcium concentration with chronic kidney disease and mortality in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients: evidence from the NHANES 1999-2018.

This study aims to explore the relationship of serum calcium (Ca) concentration with diabetic kidney disease (DKD) and all-cause mortality among type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients using National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES). Data of T2DM patients aged ≥ 40 years were screened from the NHANES database from 1999 to 2018. The outcomes were the risk of DKD diagnosed by urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) ≥ 30 mg/g or estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and the risk of all-cause mortality ascertained by linkage to National Death Index (NDI) records through 31 December 2019. The weighted univariate and multivariate logistic regression model and cox proportional hazard model were utilized to explore the relationships of serum Ca concentration with DKD and all-cause mortality, respectively, with odds ratios (ORs), hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence interval. The relationships were further explored stratified by age, gender, body mass index (BMI), the duration of T2DM, and the history of cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer and DKD. Totally, 6595 T2DM patients were included. Of these patients, 2441 (37.01%) had DKD and 1868 (28.32%) deaths occurred over a mean follow-up of 104.50 (± 1.61) months. In fully adjusted model, we observed high serum Ca concentration was associated with high risk of DKD (OR = 1.45, 95% CI 1.18-1.77) and high all-cause mortality risk (HR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.16-1.52). These relationships remained significant after performing subgroup analyses. The Restricted cubic spline curves shown that linear correlations were observed between serum Ca concentration and DKD as well as all-cause mortality (P < 0.05). Elevated serum Ca concentration may predict the high risk of DKD and poor prognosis in T2DM patients, and future large-scale and well-designed prospective cohort study is needed to explore the association of serum Ca concentration and DKD and prognosis in T2DM patients.

Blood CD45+/CD3+ lymphocyte-released extracellular vesicles and mortality in hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019.

The global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) represented a major public health concern. Growing evidence shows that plasma of COVID-19 patients contains large numbers of circulating extracellular vesicles (cEVs) that correlate with disease severity and recovery. In this study, we sought to characterize the longitudinal cEV signature in critically ill COVID-19 patients during hospitalization and its relation to mortality risk. cEVs were quantitatively and phenotypically analysed in hospitalized non-surviving COVID-19 patients at baseline (n = 42) and before exitus (n = 40) and in 40 healthy volunteers as a reference group by high sensitivity nano flow cytometry using specific markers for parental cell sources and activation. Levels of cEV subtypes differed between patients with severe COVID-19 and healthy subjects, specifically those from platelets and endothelial, inflammatory and viral infected cells, which associate to high mortality risk. In the longitudinal analysis from baseline to the time point immediately preceding death, no changes were found for platelet, pan-leukocyte, and lung epithelial cell-shed cEVs, while endothelial cell releases of EVs (eEVs) significantly differed. Vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2-positive eEVs were significantly increased before death compared to admission whereas endoglin and E-selectin-containing eEVs did not change. Conversely, lymphocyte (ℓEV), monocyte, macrophage, pericyte and progenitor cell-derived cEVs displayed significant reductions before exitus. Noteworthy, levels of CD45+/CD3+-ℓEVs were significantly associated to the patient's survival time. An evolving cEV profile able to discriminate prompt risk of death during hospitalization has been defined suggesting a role for circulating and vascular cell-derived EVs in COVID-19 pathogenesis.

The development of a C5.0 machine learning model in a limited data set to predict early mortality in patients with ARDS undergoing an initial session of prone positioning.

Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) has a high morbidity and mortality. One therapy that can decrease mortality is ventilation in the prone position (PP). Patients undergoing PP are amongst the sickest, and there is a need for early identification of patients at particularly high risk of death. These patients may benefit from an in-depth review of treatment or consideration of rescue therapies. We report the development of a machine learning model trained to predict early mortality in patients undergoing prone positioning as part of the management of their ARDS. Prospectively collected clinical data were analysed retrospectively from a single tertiary ICU. The records of patients who underwent an initial session of prone positioning whilst receiving invasive mechanical ventilation were identified (n = 131). The decision to perform prone positioning was based on the criteria in the PROSEVA study. A C5.0 classifier algorithm with adaptive boosting was trained on data gathered before, during, and after initial proning. Data was split between training (85% of data) and testing (15% of data). Hyperparameter tuning was achieved through a grid-search using a maximal entropy configuration. Predictions for 7-day mortality after initial proning session were made on the training and testing data. The model demonstrated good performance in predicting 7-day mortality (AUROC: 0.89 training, 0.78 testing). Seven variables were used for prediction. Sensitivity was 0.80 and specificity was 0.67 on the testing data set. Patients predicted to survive had 13.3% mortality, while those predicted to die had 66.67% mortality. Among patients in whom the model predicted patient would survive to day 7 based on their response, mortality at day 7 was 13.3%. Conversely, if the model predicted the patient would not survive to day 7, mortality was 66.67%. This proof-of-concept study shows that with a limited data set, a C5.0 classifier can predict 7-day mortality from a number of variables, including the response to initial proning, and identify a cohort at significantly higher risk of death. This can help identify patients failing conventional therapies who may benefit from a thorough review of their management, including consideration of rescue treatments, such as extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. This study shows the potential of a machine learning model to identify ARDS patients at high risk of early mortality following PP. This information can guide clinicians in tailoring treatment strategies and considering rescue therapies. Further validation in larger cohorts is needed.

COVID-19 and pregnancy: a comprehensive study of comorbidities and outcomes.

This study aimed to investigate the impact of pregnancy and pre-existing comorbidities on COVID-19 infections and associated complications of hospitalisation and mortality in women of reproductive age (WRA). The study also compared the risk of severe COVID-19 complications between pregnant women (PW) and non-pregnant women (NPW) with and without pre-existing comorbidities. Special focus was placed on some understudied comorbidities of immunosuppression, chronic renal disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The study utilized anonymized patient-related information for a population of 7,342,869 WRA from the Mexican Ministry of Health data repository on COVID-19. Descriptive variables were characterized using frequencies, percentages, means, and standard deviations. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were used to assess the associations between risk factors and outcomes of hospitalisation and mortality. The study covered the entire COVID-19 pandemic period from January 30, 2020, to May 5, 2023. The findings revealed that PW were not more likely to get COVID-19 infections than NPW. PW with COVID-19 infections were more likely to require hospital admission, intubation treatments, and ICU admission compared to NPW with COVID-19. PW with immunosuppression had an increased odds ratio (aOR) of getting COVID-19 infections compared to NPW (PW: aOR = 1.0396; NPW: aOR = 0.8373). NPW with immunosuppression had higher risk of mortality (all-cause death: aOR = 1.7084; COVID-19-associated death: aOR = 1.4079) and hospitalisation (all-cause hospitalisation: aOR = 4.1328; COVID-19-associated hospitalisation: aOR = 3.0451) than NPW without immunosuppression. Renal disease was identified as a concerning pre-existing condition that increased the risks of COVID-19 associated mortality/hospitalizations and all-cause mortality/hospitalizations for both PW and NPW. NPW with renal disease had much higher odds ratio (aOR) of either COVID-19-associated-hospitalisations (NPW: aOR = 8.639; PW: aOR = 1.7603) or all-cause hospitalisations (NPW: aOR = 8.8594; PW: aOR = 1.786) than PW with renal disease. This study provides valuable insights into the impact of pregnancy and pre-existing comorbidities on COVID-19 outcomes in WRA. The findings underscore the importance of considering demographic factors and pre-existing comorbidities in the management of PW with COVID-19. The study also highlights the need for further research to understand the unique impacts of different comorbidities, particularly immunosuppression and renal disease, on COVID-19 outcomes in WRA.

HPB SO29 - Outcomes of Percutaneous Image-Guided and Laparoscopic Cholecystostomies in High-Risk Patients With Acute Calculus Cholecystitis: A Five-Year District General Hospital Experience

Abstract Background Acute cholecystitis (AC), inflammation of the gall bladder, is one of the most common emergency surgical presentations. In the UK, approximately 15% of the population is estimated to have gallstones, and approximately 20% of them can develop AC. Laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) is considered the definitive management of AC. However, cholecystectomy carries a very high risk of morbidity and mortality in high-risk frail patients with multiple comorbidities who are deemed unfit for surgery. Percutaneous cholecystostomy (PC), both image-guided and laparoscopic, is generally acknowledged as an interim treatment measure before definitive management, which is the LC. Method This retrospective study from the Royal Albert Edward Infirmary in Wigan, UK, analyzed medical records of patients who underwent percutaneous cholecystostomy (PC) between January 2017 and December 2022. Excluded were patients with prior hepato-pancreato-biliary malignancy, those who had open cholecystostomy, or those with abdominal ascites. Data collected included age, gender, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grades, procedure success rates (temporary or definitive), hospital stay duration, 30-day and 1-year mortality rates, timing of the procedure, and long-term complications, particularly those related to cholecystostomy tube dislodgment or blockage. Results In this study, 27 patients who underwent percutaneous cholecystostomy (PC) were divided into two groups: Group A (10 patients) had laparoscopic cholecystostomies, and Group B (17 patients) had ultrasound-guided cholecystostomies. The mean ages were 66.7 for Group A and 75.1 for Group B. Most patients were in ASA groups III (14) and IV (10). About 74% had procedures during the day, 26% at night. The mean hospital stay was 13.5 days. Around 55% had elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) as definitive management. Two patients died within 30 days, and eight within a year. About 40% experienced tube dislodgment or blockage complications. Conclusion This study concludes that PC, using both laparoscopic and US-guided techniques, can serve as an interim as well as a definitive measure, particularly in patients who are at high risk for anesthesia and the procedure itself and have multiple comorbidities.

Outcomes of Community-Acquired Acute Kidney Injury: A Cohort Study of US Veterans.

Community-acquired acute kidney injury (CA-AKI) occurs outside of the hospital and is the most common form of AKI. CA-AKI is not well understood, which hinders efforts to prevent, identify, and manage CA-AKI. Examine 30-day outcomes following CA-AKI using national administrative and lab data from the Veterans Health Administration (VA). Retrospective cohort study. VA primary care patients with recorded outpatient serum creatinine (SCr) with observed CA-AKI (cases) and a standardized mortality ratio propensity-weighted 5% comparator sample without observed CA-AKI in 2013-2017. CA-AKI was defined as a ≥1.5-fold relative increase in outpatient SCr or inpatient SCr (≤24h from admission) from a reference outpatient SCr ≤12 months prior. Outcomes were 30-day mortality and hospitalization and were assessed in separate weighted Cox regression models. Among 220,777 CA-AKI events and 492,539 comparators without observed CA-AKI, CA-AKI was associated with a higher risk of 30-day all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR)=4.17, 95% CI: 3.74, 4.63] and hospitalization (HR=1.82, 95% CI: 1.74, 1.90) versus comparator. Risks increased with severity (mortality HR=3.02, 7.67, and 12.22 for AKI stages 1-3, respectively). Outpatient CA-AKI was associated with a high risk of mortality (HR=2.04, 95% CI: 1.83, 2.28) and even higher for inpatient CA-AKI, present [≤24h from admission (HR=11.32, 95% CI: 10.16, 12.61)]. In a national cohort of Veterans, CA-AKI was associated with a 2-fold increased risk of hospitalization and a 3-11-fold risk of mortality. Improving identification and management is critical to mitigate adverse outcomes of CA-AKI.

Abstract 4136889: Impact of hypercholesterolemia definitions on prevalence and prognosis of patients without standard modifiable cardiovascular risk factors and ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

Background: In patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), recent studies have intriguingly reported that up to a quarter of AMI patients have none of the 4 main standard modifiable cardiovascular (CV) risk factors (SMuRFs) (i.e. hypertension (HTN), diabetes mellitus (DM), hypercholesterolemia (HC), and smoking) and have worse mortality. Hypothesis: We tested the hypothesis that the prevalence and prognosis of SMuRF-less patients varies with the definition of risk factors. Aim: Using a French nationwide MI cohort, we aimed to compare SMuRF-less ST-segment elevation MI (STEMI) patients according to 2 HC definitions, given the possibility of using several HC criteria. Methods: The French Cohort of Myocardial Infarction Evaluation (FRENCHIE) is a large ongoing AMI cohort, collecting data from all patients hospitalized for AMI &lt; 48 h of symptom onset in 21 French centers. STEMI patients without prior CAD admitted in 2019 to 2022 were studied. DM was defined as prior DM diagnosis, HbA1c&gt;7% or anti-diabetic medications, ongoing or at discharge, HTN was defined as treated or previous HTN diagnosis and smoking was defined as current smoking within the past month. Restrictive HC (RHC) was defined as either a previous diagnosis of HC or statin therapy. Permissive HC (PHC) was defined as previous diagnosis of HC or lipid-lowering therapy, or LDL-C &gt; 135 mg/dL or total Cholesterol &gt; 213 mg/dL. Results: Among 8008 patients (mean age 61.5± 12.9y, 22.6% women), 41.4% were smokers, 17.4% had diabetes, and 38.5% HTN. According to HC definitions, the prevalence of HC almost doubled, ranging from 30.3% for RHC to 61.0% for PHC. Consequently, the prevalence of SMuRF-less was divided by ≈ two (21.1% vs 11.3%, respectively), depending on the definition of HC used. Age and sex-adjusted logistic regression analysis showed that PHC, but not RHC, was associated with lower odds of in-hospital death ( figure ). Moreover, having multiple SMuRFs was associated with higher risk of mortality than no SMuRF when using RHC, but not with PHC definition. Conclusion: The prevalence and impact on acute mortality of being SMURFless varies largely with the definition of HC. More research is needed, using HC standardized definitions to explore these patients. Frenchie: was supported in part by the RHU iVASC grant ANR-16-RHUS-00010 from the French National Research Agency (ANR) as part of the Investissements d’Avenir program. The FRENCHIE cohort is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04050956.

Abstract 4135993: Body Composition and Mortality Throughout the Reproductive Cycle: Findings from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Introduction: Changes in body composition throughout the reproductive cycle accelerate during the 2 years following the final menstrual period (FMP), known as the menopausal transition (MT). During MT, an increase in fat mass (FM) and a decrease in fat free mass (FFM) are usually seen, but the relationship between these changes and cardiovascular events is not well understood. We aim to explore how FM and FFM are associated with cardiovascular events and total mortality across the reproductive cycle in participants of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Methods: This study included 3439 women from exam 1 of MESA. Outcomes of interest were either MACE (heart failure, myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, cardiac arrest, or stroke) or all-cause mortality. Equations to determine FM and FFM at exam 1 were validated with the NHANES 2003 population and derived from regression models based on bioelectrical impedance analysis results at exam 5 and anthropometric and demographic measures. Women were divided into 3 groups based on time since FMP: reproductive phase (before FMP), MT phase (&lt;2 years after FMP), and late menopause phase (&gt;2 years after FMP). Adjusted Cox multivariate models assessed the association between FM, FFM and MACE or all-cause mortality. Results: Median follow-up time was 14.1 years. FM was associated with MACE in the late menopause group, whereas FFM was not associated with MACE (Table). With respect to all-cause mortality, FM had a positive association (HR=1.19, P=0.03) while FFM had a negative association (HR=0.68, P=0.04) in the MT phase. The late menopause group showed similar relationships between FM, FFM, and all-cause mortality. The reproductive group showed no significant associations (Table). Conclusion: In this cohort, FM is associated with a higher risk of mortality whereas FFM is associated with a lower risk. We observed these associations to be more pronounced during the MT, a time of accelerated body composition change. Our results suggest and will need further investigation to confirm that the MT may be a critical time in the female lifespan to initiate interventions which positively impact muscle mass with a view to improving survival.

Abstract 4145873: Optimal Timing for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting in NSTEMI Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis of In-Hospital Mortality and Stroke Prevalence Over 2017 to 2021

Background: Recent studies have suggested performing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) within 24 hours of acute myocardial infarction increases mortality risk. However, the ideal timing after the first day remains unclear. This study aims to suggest an optimal timing of CABG in NSTEMI patients using the large National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database over a 5-year period. Methods: This retrospective cohort study analyzed survey-weighted NIS data over 2017-2021, including adult-age admissions with NSTEMI as the principal diagnosis who underwent CABG without prior transfer from another hospital. Patients were categorized into eight groups based on days from admission to CABG (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and ≥7 days). Baseline characteristics were compared across groups. Multivariate regression analysis adjusted for multiple confounders to assess the association between Time-to-CABG and in-hospital mortality and stroke prevalence. Results: Table 1 presents the baseline characteristics across the eight groups, encompassing 142,200 included admissions (mean age 65.24 years; 26.78% female). In-Hospital Mortality: The adjusted odds ratios (OR) were less than one for groups 1 through 7 compared to group 0, indicating that immediate CABG (day 0) is associated with higher mortality risk. While the reduced odds in the day 1 group were not statistically significant, substantial and statistically significant reductions in mortality were observed between days 2 and 5 (OR: 0.624 - 0.609; p&lt;0.05). After day 5, the OR for mortality trended up, reaching 0.667 (p&lt;0.05) on day 6 and 0.692 (p&lt;0.05) for surgeries performed on day 7 or later. Stroke Prevalence: The adjusted ORs for stroke prevalence were significantly lower for groups 1 through 7 compared to the CABG within 24-hour group (all p-values &lt;0.05). The lowest ORs were observed between days 2 and 4 (OR: 0.654 and 0.542, p&lt;0.05, respectively). After day 4, the ORs increased, reaching 0.672 (p&lt;0.05) for surgeries performed on day 5 and 0.609 (p&lt;0.05) on day 7 and beyond. Conclusion: The mortality risk in NSTEMI patients remained higher if CABG was performed in the first 48 hours of admission (end of day 1) compared to later. This risk also increased if CABG was done after day 5. Combined with the possible risk of stroke being increased from day 5, we suggest the optimal time-to-CABG is between admission day 2 and day 4 in NSTEMI patients. Future prospective studies are warranted to confirm these findings and guide clinical practice.

Abstract 4134340: Title: Comorbidities Associated with One Year Mortality and Hospital Readmission After Leadless Pacemaker Implantation

Introduction: Previous studies have noted racial and ethnic disparities in access to leadless pacemaker implantation (LPI), but none have evaluated the socioeconomic disadvantaged (SED). Additionally, few studies have evaluated outcomes of LPI beyond thirty days on a large scale. This study aimed to determine which comorbidities are associated with one-year readmissions and mortality after LPI, including SED via the Social Deprivation Index (SDI). Methods: Patients ages ≥18 were identified in the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases in New York and Florida from 2016-2019 with follow-up into 2020. These states were chosen due to availability for linkage of the 2018 SDI (1-100, higher scores representing more disadvantage). International Classification of Diseases 10 codes for LPI were used. The risk of readmission and mortality was assessed using Cox proportional hazards first in an unadjusted fashion for each comorbidity in the Charlson Comorbidity Index. In addition to demographic variables, only significant variables from the unadjusted analysis were included in the final adjusted multivariable models. Results: 3,094 patients met inclusion criteria. The readmission and mortality rates at one, three, and twelve months were 17.2%, 31.3%, 50.2% and 5.7%, 7.1%, 10.7%, respectively. The most common diagnoses for readmission were dyspnea/chest pain (9.4%), heart failure (4%), and sepsis (3.8%). Federal insurance, heart failure (CHF), pulmonary disease, diabetes without complications, and renal disease (CKD) were associated with increased risk for twelve-month readmissions. African American race, myocardial infarction, CHF, CKD, and higher SDI were associated with increased risk for twelve-month mortality. Conclusion: CHF and CKD put patients at high risk of readmission and mortality. Sepsis was among the most common causes of readmission at twelve months. Patients of higher SED are at increased risk of mortality within one year after LPI.

Refractory gastrointestinal bleeding caused by splenic artery pseudoaneurysm rupture.

A 64-year-old man was admitted for hematemesis. Esophagogastroduodenoscopy revealed a gastric ulcer with a visible vessel on the posterior wall of the gastric body. After admission, the patient developed multiple episodes of massive hematemesis. During emergent esophagogastroduodenoscopy, he developed hemodynamic instability due to spurting bleeding. On day 18 of hospitalization, hemostasis was achieved using hemostatic forceps; however, contrast-enhanced computed tomography performed on the same day revealed a small splenic artery pseudoaneurysm (SAP) that had not been previously detected. To prevent fatal re-bleeding, interventional radiology was performed, and coil embolization was applied proximal to the pseudoaneurysm. The patient recovered without further hematemesis. One month later, exposed coils were observed from the healing ulcer, and celiac trunk angiography confirmed splenic artery thrombosis. Despite multiple attempts at endoscopic intervention, the patient developed recurrent hematemesis, suggesting that the gastric ulcer had eroded into the splenic artery, forming the SAP and causing significant hemorrhage. Although SAPs secondary to gastric ulcers are extremely rare, early recognition is critical because they carry a high risk of rupture and mortality. Endoscopic procedure alone may be insufficient, and an endovascular approach is a standard treatment to prevent life-threatening re-bleeding.

Abstract 4119116: Percutaneous Aspiration of Mitral Valve Endocarditis using the AngioVac Device

Case Description: A 68-year-old man with end-stage renal disease on dialysis, peripheral vascular disease with metatarsal amputations, atrial fibrillation and type 1 diabetes was admitted for foot osteomyelitis secondary to MSSA bacteremia. Transesophageal echocardiogram revealed mobile mitral valve vegetations up to 1.8cm on the atrial aspect of the posterior mitral valve leaflet which prolapsed through the mitral valve during diastole. Ejection fraction was 60% and there was trivial-mild mitral regurgitation without valvular destruction or peri-annular extension into the mitral annulus. MRI brain showed bilateral cerebral and cerebellar hemispheric infarcts, consistent with acute embolic stroke. He was at high risk for both recurrent embolism and operative mortality (STS risk score 51%) due to his comorbidities and risk of hemorrhagic conversion of stroke. After shared decision making, percutaneous aspiration of the mitral vegetation was performed with AngioVac (Fig). Cerebral embolism protection devices were deployed prior to AngioVac evacuation of the mass. There was no residual mitral regurgitation and only a small vegetation strand remained (Fig). Surgical pathology confirmed MSSA endocarditis. Blood cultures remained negative, and the patient did not suffer from recurrent embolic events. The patient underwent revision metatarsal amputation and was discharged with a 6-week course of IV cefazolin. Discussion: Infective endocarditis with high embolic risk is life-threatening and challenging to treat in patients with high surgical risk. We illustrate a case of percutaneous vegetation aspiration using the AngioVac device in our patient who suffered from embolic strokes due to MSSA mitral valve endocarditis. Meta-analyses have shown clinically successful debulking in 90% of cases, with 82% of patients able to clear bacteremia with AngioVac. Although most commonly used in right-sided lesions, percutaneous debulking of left-sided endocarditis with AngioVac and cerebral protection can be considered as a treatment strategy in select patients with prohibitive surgical risk.

Abstract 4135726: Prospective validation and implementation pilot study of an emergency department heart failure risk stratification tool: STRIDE-HF

Background: We previously found the STRIDE-HF emergency department (ED) risk tool accurately predicted risk of a 30-day serious adverse event (SAE), including 30-day mortality, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, intra-aortic balloon pump insertion, intubation, new dialysis, myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization. Research question: We sought to prospectively validate STRIDE-HF and describe safety of the deployed model in a clinical pilot. We hypothesized that performance would decrease slightly with prospective evaluation and that real-time risk display would contribute to safe disposition decisions. Goals: 1) To prospectively validate KPCARES-HF across 21 community EDs among ED patients with acute heart failure (AHF) from January 1, 2023 – December 31 st , 2023; and 2) to describe outcomes among patients predicted to be very low risk and discharged home in the clinical pilot. Methods: For prospective validation, we report 30-day mortality rates by risk strata. We assess model performance using area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) and sensitivity at a key clinical threshold. We describe rates of 30-day SAE among patients predicted to be very low risk and discharged after ED or observation unit care in the clinical pilot. Results: There were 13,274 ED patients in the prospective validation; median age was 76, 50.8% were female, and 44.5% were non-White. We found 11.4%, 24.8%, 31.9%, and 31.9% of patients were very low, low, moderate, and high risk, respectively, while 21.6%, 15.2% and 63.0% were discharged, observed, and admitted, respectively. Among discharged patients, 29.2% and 13.3% were moderate or high risk, respectively, and 30-day mortality rates among these patients were 2.2% and 8.4%, respectively. Among 8,363 admitted patients, 27.7% were very low or low risk. Conclusions: STRIDE-HF maintained high predictive accuracy with prospective validation in this diverse, multi-center cohort. Our findings suggest that use of STRIDE-HF might help better align risk with admission decision and can be safely used to assist providers in identifying patients who may be stable for outpatient care.

Use of Artificial Intelligence to Predict Outcomes in Mild Aortic Valve Stenosis

Abstract Background and Aims Aortic stenosis (AS) is a common and progressive disease which, if left untreated, results in increased morbidity and mortality. Monitoring and follow-up care can be challenging due to significant variability in disease progression. This study aimed to develop machine learning models to predict the risks of disease progression and mortality in patients with mild aortic stenosis. Methods A comprehensive database including 9611 patients with serial transthoracic echocardiograms was collected from a single institution across 3 clinical sites. The dataset included parameters from echocardiograms, electrocardiograms, laboratory values, and diagnosis codes. Data from a single clinical site was preserved as an independent test group. Machine learning models were trained to identify progression to severe stenosis and all-cause mortality and tested in their performance for endpoints at 2 and 5 years. Results In the independent test group, the AS progression model differentiated those with progression to severe AS within 2 and 5 years with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.86 for both. The feature of greatest importance was aortic valve mean gradient, followed by other valve hemodynamic measurements including valve area and dimensionless index. The mortality model identified those with mortality within 2 years and 5 years with an AUC of 0.84 and 0.87, respectively. Smaller reduced-input validation models had similarly robust findings. Conclusions Machine learning models can be used in patients with mild AS to identify those at high risk for disease progression and mortality. Implementation of such models may facilitate real-time, patient-specific follow-up recommendations.